Gaining Control in Iraq, and Regaining Support at Home

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http://www.nytimes.com/2005/12/01/politics/01assess.html?oref=login

News Analysis
Gaining Control in Iraq, and Regaining Support at Home

By ELISABETH BUMILLER Published: December 1, 2005

WASHINGTON, Nov. 30 - The political calculation behind President Bush's speech in Annapolis on Wednesday is that Washington, not Baghdad, is the battlefront that will decide the ultimate outcome of the war in Iraq, but that Mr. Bush's decisions do not have to be driven by fears of heavy Republican losses in the 2006 midterm elections.

At a time of increasing Democratic attacks on Mr. Bush's handling of the war and a drop in public support for the conflict, Mr. Bush's political advisers assert that they can still hold Congress next year. By their reasoning, there will be only 35 to 40 competitive seats in the House of Representatives, and at this point they see no evidence that the war will be the determining factor in those races. While there may be Democratic gains in the Senate, both parties doubt that the Republicans will lose control.<snip>

Democrats did not dispute the White House estimate of the number of competitive House races next year, but they said it was far too early to dismiss Iraq as a major factor in the elections. And Amy Walter, the senior editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which closely tracks Congressional races, said that most House races had not even started, and that the antiwar political climate "could still overwhelm the structural advantages of Republicans."<snip>

The 35-page document that accompanied Mr. Bush's speech in Annapolis, titled "National Strategy for Victory in Iraq," defined victory in the short term as "steady progress" in fighting terrorists, the meeting of political milestones, the building of democratic institutions and the training of Iraqi security forces. In the long term, it said victory would require no less than a peaceful and secure Iraq, "well integrated into the international community" and a "full partner" in fighting terrorism.

But in redefining victory as, effectively, creating conditions that would allow the United States to leave, Mr. Bush made no promises that he would be able to reduce American forces significantly in 2006.<snip>


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