CBS Poll: Bush 47, Kerry 46 (new)

[sonicx]

still a tie statistically, but a "closer tie." ;)

-----

John Kerry sat within one point of President Bush in the latest CBS News poll released Monday, as support for the president appeared slip slightly.

The new poll, conducted Thursday through Sunday, gave the president a 47-46 percent lead among likely voters. The poll surveyed 1,345 people and among likely voters carried a three-point margin of error.

That represented a slight narrowing of the gap from Mr. Bush's 49-46 percent lead in a CBS News/New York Times poll reported Sunday based on interviews Thursday through Saturday. That poll talked to 920 people and there was a four-point margin of error for likely voters. Independent candidate Ralph Nader gets 1 percent in both polls.

Statistically, however, nothing really changed. The candidates were still with the margin of error and — as in other polls out Monday — the race was too close to call just hours before Americans cast their ballots in the country's 55th presidential election.

more = http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/11/01/politics/main652662.shtml

[d_b]

1. Bush at 47 = Bush done

[MallRat]

2. If it's Bush 47, Kerry 46, Nader 1....

...and then adding in probably another 1 percent for the others combined (Badnarik, Cobb, Peroutka, etc.), that leaves a whopping FIVE PERCENT UNDECIDED.

That leaves a lot of people to break for the challenger. :-)

-MR

[Laelth]

3. Cook that goose!

Yup, he's done. See my prediction HERE.

GOTV! Remember, we want the Senate too!

:dem:

-Laelth

[lsuguy]

7. nice predictions Laelth!

You get a kiss from me if LA goes blue! I'll be working all day to make it happen, but don't have a lot of confidence!

[Laelth]

8. Admittedly ...

LA is my most gutsy call, but there have been very few polls taken in LA, and I just didn't trust the numbers I was seeing. LA went for Clinton in both 92 and 96. The economic downturn has hit LA pretty hard, and there's a significant African-American population that I expect to express some outrage over disenfranchisement in 2000. Plus, I expect the 3-way Senate race to draw voters to the polls. Add that to a Dem. governor and a solid Dem. legislature, and LA went blue in my model. ... but you, and a lot of people like you, are the ones who have to make it happen.

Hats off to the good Dems in LA!

:toast:

-Laelth

[cubsfan forever]

16. A well done goose! n/t

Professor 2

[displacedtexan]

4. Likely Voters again.

Bad methodology.

Numerous threads about this.

[KelleyKramer]

6. These polls have turned into a total joke

In 20+ years being a political junkie do not recall seeing polls this slanted.

There was a Gallup poll last week that had 50% Republican id's and the Dem id was in the mid 30's.

These polls are a joke.

[deadparrot]

5. Oh, this is likely voters? Didn't notice that before.

Even more of a reason to disregard them.

[BobMorr]

9. Tucker Carlson predicts Kerry win!

Tucker Carlson predicts a Kerry win by 2 pts. Just on CNN.

[mike from ri]

11. slimy dick morris

backed away from his earlier prediction that bush would win. he was non-committal.

[Bombero1956]

13. I wouldn't believe

a thing Tucker has to say. He's probably trying to make some Dems think that Kerry will win anyways so why vote.

[0007]

19. I hope this floppy ass bow tie wearing dickhead is right on!

[mistertrickster]

10. I think Kerry's got it. Now the question is, how much of the e-vote

is gonna get screwed with.

[Bombero1956]

12. if you want honest results

Try http://www.electoral-vote.com/ and click on predicted final results.
He predicts the undecided will break 2:1 for Kerry. I'm not aware if his webpage has been cited here at DU but after reading about him I feel that he knows what he's talking about.

From his website; We have another bumper crop of polls today, 50 in all.the total number of polls in the Polling data file is 937. Toss in another 252 polls from May 24 to Aug. 31 and we have the most studied election in the history of the world. And what's the conclusion? Nobody knows. If we just look at the most recent poll in every state, John Kerry will be elected the 44th President of the United States tomorrow with 298 votes in the electoral college vs. 231 for George Bush, with New Mexico and New Hampshire exact ties.

If Bush picks up Florida and the two states that are tied (NH and NV), then Kerry wins 271 to 267, the same margin Gore should have lost by last time. Actually, he lost 271 to 266 because one Gore elector from D.C., Barbara Lett-Simmons cast a blank ballot in protest of D.C.'s not having representation in Congress. It could be a long night, especially if Bush picks up either Florida or Ohio and a couple of small Kerry states in the East or Midwest, so everything depends on New Mexico.

As I have discussed repeatedly, normally people with a cell phone but no landline are not polled. Most of these are in the 18-29 year old group. Up until now, no one has known how their absence from the polling data might affect the results. Zogby has now conducted a very large (N = 6039) poll exclusively on cell phones using SMS messaging to get a feeling of how they will vote. The results are that they go strongly for Kerry, 55% to 40%, with a margin of error of only 1.2%. If they all vote tomorrow, the pollsters are going to spend the rest of the week wiping egg from their faces. But historically, younger voters have a miserable turnout record, so the pollsters need not yet stock up on paper towels.

[mistertrickster]

15. Thanks, good post---what he's saying seems to be happening on

election day. John Kerry running ahead of predictions.

[JoFerret]

14. Can't stand the tension of waiting? Here's Martin Rowson

[robbedvoter]

17. Breslin on BS polls:

So you were getting CBS/New York Times polls proclaimed as most important and real. One hundred seventy million cell phones and you don't poll one of them. The polls they are pushing at you in the news magazines, on the networks, in the big papers, are such cheap, meaningless blatant lies, that some of these television stations should have their licenses challenged.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

18. Likely voters don't mean sh**

This is a record turnout at the polls.