WP Poll: Kerry Gains on Bush:President's Lead Narrows to 49-47 Among L

[Pirate Smile]

President's Lead Narrows to 49-47 Among Likely Voters

"Democratic nominee John F. Kerry has gained ground on President Bush since last week's presidential debate and narrowly trails Bush among likely voters in one of the most closely followed presidential campaigns in at least two decades, according to the latest Washington Post tracking poll.

Bush leads Kerry 49 percent to 47 percent among those most likely to go to the polls. Independent Ralph Nader continues to barely register nationally, receiving 1 percent of the vote while 3 percent of voters remain undecided. Among all registered voters, Bush holds a three percentage-point lead.

The poll also found that most Americans believe they have not gained ground economically since Bush took office. Thirty percent said they are now better off financially than they were in 2001 while an equal share say they were not as well off. Forty percent said they have stayed about the same. Likely voters also divide over which candidate would best handle the issue of taxes but by a small margin think Kerry would do a better job handling the federal budget deficit.

The economy, budget deficit and taxes are expected to be some of the topics raised Friday as the two candidates square off in the second presidential debate, a confrontation that has taken on new urgency for Bush in recent days."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A12404-2004Oct6.html

[David Zephyr]

1. Momentum is With Kerry As Election Day Approaches.

Sweet news.

[lancdem]

2. I'd love to see the party breakdown in this poll

[Catt03]

3. If it isa not published, I believe they have to give you the information

[tritsofme]

10. They have to give it to you or what?

They can tell you to pound sand.

[jdj]

17. Here we go with the "likely voters" again...

Baloney.

[MessiahRp]

4. I am VERY skeptical about the WaPo/ABC polls

This one and the one previous were the only ones that maintained that Bush had a solid lead after Kerry whipped Bush in the debate. Every other poll had it tied or a Kerry lead. That's why I find these polls hard to swallow.

Enough people watched Bush be a petulant child. Selling us this lemon just doesn't fly anymore.

Rp

[w4rma]

8. Don't worry about the polls. Just do as much as you can to get Kerry

and Edwards and Democrats elected.

Yammering about polls won't help us. This is just the horserace that big media likes to focus on instead of the issues.

[expatriot]

11. true dat. true dat. at this point it is about gotv gotv gotv

everyone needs to find and find their place in their local gotv apparatus.

[jdj]

18. Why? Because they can MANIPULATE poll numbers, and

manipulate people with their manipulated numbers. They are sampling larger numbers of republicans (hence the "likely voters") than are actually projected to vote, to sway the numbers their way.

[fearnobush]

5. Let the truth be told, and the people will rise up for it.

<>

[sonicx]

6. i wonder if this poll will get play

Their post-debate flash poll said cheney did better than edwards. All the networks ran with it, even tho it was stuffed with republicans.

hmmm...

i'll bet this poll is stuffed too, but there's no way to tell.

[crossroads]

26. Good point!!! n/t

:kick:

[bigbubbabill]

7. Hmmm. I hate these damn polls. They all lie!

[Art_from_Ark]

9. They certainly did in 2000

when nearly all of them had bu$h out in front of Gore by several percentage points just before the election, and yet Gore got half a million more votes than bu$h did.

[Sagan]

12. Yep, more of the same regarding a "lead"...

Chimpy 2 points up is a "lead". Kerry 2 points up is a "virtual tie" or a "statistical dead heat".

Good old media whores.

[Chico Man]

13. Voting is anonymous, polling is not

There is a certain amount of fear that goes along with not supporting the president over the phone. It's sad but true.

[Defecit]

14. Electoral College

The scary part here is that Bush leads in terms of Electoral college votes. It could very likely come down to the Electoral College making the decision on who wins rather than the voters. Kerry desperately needs PA, Ohio and Florida to really have a solid chance of taking Bush down. Our votes may not matter once again. Scary scary thought.

[Chico Man]

15. Without the electoral college

Cities would decide the election. That is not too fair for the more rural parts of the country.

I believe in the electoral college. I also believe Kerry will win in a landslide.

[Stargleamer]

16. Speaking of fairness...

The electoral college does ultimately count some people's votes more than others, it runs counter to the principle advocated by the Warren Court of one person-one vote. 200,000 more people in Calif. voted for Al Gore than Bush, yet their votes' impact was negated by the electoral college system. This is unfair. Whatever problems basing winning an election on a straight plurality or majority of votes, such as the difficulty of a nation-wide recount, it would nontheless still have the advantage of being the most fair.

[moondoggie]

22. 54 EC votes is all there was in California, Gore got 'em all.

Actually, the vote was 5-4 and I wasn't one of the nine, were you?

Also, Gore beat Bush in California by 1.2 million (11%).

[Chico Man]

27. One Person, One State, One Vote

From http://www.fec.gov/pdf/eleccoll.pdf

Finally, as the election of 1888 demonstrates, the Electoral College
system imposes two requirements on candidates for the presidency:
’ that the victor obtain a sufficient popular vote to enable him to govern
(although this may not be the absolute majority), and
’ that such a popular vote be sufficiently distributed across the country to
enable him to govern.
Such an arrangement ensures a regional balance of support which is
a vital consideration in governing a large and diverse nation (even though
in close elections, as in 1888, distribution of support may take precedence
over majority of support).
Far from being flaws, then, the historical oddities described above
demonstrate the strength and resilience of the Electoral College system in
being able to select a president in even the most troubled of times.

[dax]

21. Why do you "believe" in the electoral college?

its original purpose (to prevent the rest of the country from being "run by the original thirteen colonies because communication was so limited they wanted to prevent dynasties-exactly what we have now-is long gone. What it serves to do is make red states out of rural areas that get MORE MONEY from the government than they send IN ie in Oregon, we send -I think it is a $1.25 for every dollar we get back----places like Wyoming send in a $1.00 and get back 1.75 in Federal subsidies. Unless you like the transfer of wealth from working people to corporations in naked theft-you cannot possibly support the electoral college. It is HOW they (neo-cons)took power!

[moondoggie]

23. The Neo whatevers Enronized the Florida vote , the USSC legalized

the coup and Gore rolled over. At least that's how I remember it. BTW, I'm not supporting the EC just pointing out that Bush is illegit on a zillion levels.

[Nebraska_Liberal]

24. electoral college

I am from a "rural" state, even though I live in a fairly large city, around 500,000, and I firmly believe in the electoral college. ONE PERSON ONE VOTE! The electoral college is the biggest obsticle in holding America back from being a true democracy.

[jdj]

19. Well, I guess I just won't vote then.

I'm really skeered.

I'm so deee-pressed now.

Gloom despair and agony on "us".

(Nice try, but my absentee ballot is going in the mail tomorrow.)

[Stargleamer]

20. Kerry could still win without Wisconsin and Florida...

provided he can get Ohio, and hold on in Pennsylvania and Iowa. By the narrowest of margins, he could even lose in New Hampshire too, but win the election by 2 electoral votes 270-268.

[crossroads]

25. Sweeeeeet!

:kick: