Swing-state shakeout is starting

[Thurston Howe IV]

New poll figures from swing states, the targeting of campaign appearances and decisions by the campaigns on where to spend their advertising money are starting to whittle down what has been an unusually large number of battleground states whose electoral votes are up for grabs.

The race to capture the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win in November still remains too close to call.

But some shakeout is starting to occur.

Arizona, for example, had been on the consensus list of battleground states, but a poll last week showed President Bush with a 16-point lead over Democratic challenger John Kerry. That seems to put the state's 10 electoral votes safely in Bush's column.

Consensus settled on a core group of 17 swing states: Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin.

Those 17 states represent 180 electoral votes, or two-thirds of the 270 that are needed to win.
But states have begun to be winnowed from several lists.

Political newsletter publisher Charlie Cook, who developed his list of 17 last winter, recently trimmed it to 10: Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Cook's most recent handicapping of the Electoral College race shows 25 states solidly for or leaning toward Bush, giving him 211 electoral votes. Fifteen states and the District of Columbia are solidly for or leaning toward Kerry, representing 207 electoral votes. The 10 tossup states represent 120 electoral votes.

more at:
http://www.startribune.com/stories/587/4975162.html

[surfermaw]

1. North Carolina could go democratic

If Bowles is leading that much, I would think KErry/Edwards would get the same votes.

[Xipe Totec]

2. I Hate Political Triage

It is a poor substitute for developing a coherent message that resonates with, and unites the whole country. I want to have a President of the United States again, not a President of the Battleground States of America.

I don't want Bush to feel comfortable in any state of the union. Frankly, there's no reason why he should.

[napi21]

8. You're right, but unfortunately, that's the way you win and lose!

I wonder if the strong support the small states have for the electoral college is still remaining strong? The electoral College is supposed to exist so that the candidates don't just concentrate on the highly populated urban areas and ignor the rural communities. Well, in the days of TV, the internet, and a good mail system, that doesn't seem to be applicable anymore.

[w4rma]

20. Not enough resources to do that, unfortunately. (nt)

[ogradda]

3. washington is kerry

it will be kerry

[truthisfreedom]

5. shouldn't washington be blue then?

[ogradda]

11. it is blue

look. see? and getting more blue by the day :)

[SoCalDem]

27. Here's 274 for Kerry

make your own map

[NMDemDist2]

4. don't count out AZ those polls were poorly done at best n/t

[lancdem]

6. Despite a horrible month Kerry is holding his own

in the electoral college.

[Doosh]

7. Colorado has been a pleasent surprise

I think it's still a toss up, it might break late for kerry

Virginia is also ripe for the taking.

[roseBudd]

9. come to Ohio and help

Young Voter Alliance and MobVote need volunteers

[Thurston Howe IV]

24. Thanks for mentioning Young Voter Alliance and MobVote

I added the Young Voter Alliance to my blog -- need to think of a way to cleanly add MobVote -- their website isn't the most straightforward.

[Hawkeye-X]

10. WE HAVE EXCELLENT CANDIDATES!!!

Colorado could shift everything to the dems favor. Four of five house races are trending to the Dems favor. The only safe Repuke seat is the Helmet Hair "I'm a walking ethics violation" Hefley's seat.

Tancredo, Musgrave, Beauprez are going to be looking for jobs soon. The Salazar brothers will sweep the House and Senate seats here in Colorado.

REPUKE ALERT: Chimp is making a visit to Colorado on the 13th. Let's mount up and show that the numbers for Kerry is greater than the morons for Chimp.

Hawkeye-X

[Guaranteed]

12. Okay...and I'm pretty sure we'll get Iowa, Minnesota, New Hampshire,

and New Mexico- that gives us 233.

So we need 37 more EV's, out of Florida (27), Missouri (11), Nevada (5), Ohio (20), Pennsylvania (21), and Wisconsin (10).

I say we've got a pretty good shot at that. Let's look at a few of the combinations that would do it:

Nevada and Missouri plus Pennsylvania or Florida.

Any two of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Any three of any of them, except Nevada.

Florida plus any of them except Nevada.



Any other broad combinations you can think of that I haven't hit here?

It looks like Nevada won't help us much without at least two, possibly three others, and Florida looks like the key, to me, because taking it gives us a win with one of ANY of the others except Nevada.

[quaoar]

13. How about

Alabama, South Carolina and Louisiana.

Sounds bizarre, I know.

But if someone had dropped a wad of money on Roy Moore to run as the Constitution Party's candidate, Kerry would have taken those three plus would have easily taken Florida and Arkansas -- and probably North Carolina, Virginia and Tennessee.

Ah, what might have been.

[4dsc]

14. If iowa goes Bush

I expect the entire iowa democratic party leadership to retire or resign!! If they cannot hand Kerry a win in Iowa, they don't deserve their jobs..

[yardwork]

15. These pundits make me laugh

They're calling the election two months early on the basis of a couple of outlier polls. How come they didn't "guarantee" the election to Kerry last month when he was leading in these same states that they now confidently predict will go to Bush?

The polls are silly.

[Kimber Scott]

16. Arizona checking in. I don't think it's going to be so easy for Bush here

nt

[NewYorkerfromMass]

17. YES! Make them work for it!

And Colorado, Virginia, NC, Louisiana, OHIO!!!!

[PROGRESSIVE1]

18. Arizona and Colorado are still in play.

[diamond14]

19. worked at VA Kerry Offices all day Saturday....report....

things are moving right along, thanks to the efforts of VIRGINIA Volunteers....three more big events on Sunday, big events on Saturday and Saturday night completed, phone banks, door-to-door teams, voter registration drives...everything is in progress and moving fast....will YOU get up off your couch and JOIN US??? 56 more days....

will YOU help us to KERRY VIRGINIA.....?

only a few more weeks for VOTER registrations....

we need help from EVERYONE...STAND UP...take back America...it's a very close rate, and YOUR effort will make all the difference....are YOU driving with a KERRY bumper sticker? do YOU display a Kerry sign at your home? do YOU wear Kerry shirts, hats, and buttons to YOUR local shopping areas? HELP us....If Virginia's 13 electorial votes go to KERRY, then America will move away from WAR, and back onto the right track....will YOU help? or will YOU just sit there?


start here:

http://www.NoVAforKerry.com

and here:

http://www.JohnKerry.com

[Jane Eyre]

21. North Carolina is swinging

Bowles has a healthy double-digit lead over Richard Burr and, last I looked, the difference between Kerry and Bush was about 3-4 points - well within the margin of error.

Kerry has made three seperate visits to NC (Raleigh, Charlotte & Greensboro). Ads are in full-force here, including those odious Swift Boat ads that have made a sudden appearance in the last few days.

Interesting that it wasn't mentioned in this article. Either we are under the radar or the Kerry campaign is just trying to get the Bushies to spend some dough here. My guess is that NC will be the mother of all swing states, because John Edwards is quite possibly the best politician since Bill Clinton. Both sides know that, and are willing to put up a fight for him to either win or go away.

[Zen0]

22. hmmm

I think it will come down to winning Florida again. We can go either way, and 25 points is quite a bit.

Since the hurricane, I have heard so many negative things from many, many people about jeb and george. Their lack of help could be all that Kerry needed to take Florida.

[poliguru]

23. I think Missouri will go Bush, unfortunately

It's leaning Repub in the other elections, and Gephart hasn't exactly been helping out. My sister lives there and she's not hopeful.

That said, I think there's a solid chance of getting enough electoral votes. I think Penn. and Wis. will go Kerry. Florida's election will be seriously affected by the hurricanes - people who are homeless or living temp. out of state may not be very likely to vote. A lot of people are currently living out of their voting district and will have other things to think about than absentee ballots. Hm. Low voter turnout along the lower peninsula isn't good for Kerry. But he has enough of a shot at the other battleground states that this election won't be decided until election night - at the earliest.

[Waverley_Hills_Hiker]

25. Interesting obsv about Florida....hurricanes affecting the election.

Thats true that the Dem-leaning areas where affected by Francis.

[Sheldon Rowan]

26. I really think that they are underestimating....

Democratic turnout. Apparently their algorithms are not very good at figuring out who the "likely voters" are, though they try.

[Lizzie Borden]

28. I wonder...

if they are counting Wisconsin out. All the Kerry ads (which were as common as the Bush ones) have disappeared from the airwaves.The only other thing I could think of is that they figure southern Wi. will go for Kerry anyway and so they only running ads in Northern Wi. Kerry, himself, is supposed to be here (madison) on Wed.