STOCK MARKET WATCH - Friday, September 10

[54anickel]

Friday September 10, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 132
DAYS UNTIL W* GETS HIS PINK SLIP 53 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 273 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 327 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 540
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1023
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 9, 2004

Dow... 10,289.10 -24.26 (-0.24%)
Nasdaq... 1,869.65 +19.01 (+1.03%)
S&P 500... 1,118.38 +2.11 (+0.19%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.199% +0.36



|||>

GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [email protected]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Edit to adjust figures and dates from template. Not too good at this, it's my first attempt. :hi:

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp - Who's an "Economic Girly Man"?

(The following is sent as an open letter to Arnold Schwarzenegger.)
by Martin Goldberg and Elyse Goldberg

Dear Arnold,

The speech that your read at the GOP convention last week peaked our interest as to what you meant by the term “Economic Girly Men”. While our first notion was that the use of this blatantly derogatory term was sexist, homophobic, or both, and at the least, politically incorrect considering the context of a national political convention, perhaps we just didn’t understand your use of the term. Political correctness aside, our second reaction was to think that by “Economic Girly Man”, you may have been referring to those American consumer/wage earners not blindly embracing in total, the bullish economic rhetoric being espoused by those in charge. However on further review, it seems more likely to us that you may have been referring to corporate officers and board members of most large publicly traded companies as “Economic Girly Men”.

What is, exactly, an economic Girly Man? Are these people the citizens who question the completely optimistic view put out by those in charge? If that were the case, then your good friend and mentor Warren Buffett, having expressed pessimistic views of the nation’s balance sheet, large corporation-favoring taxation policies, and the strength of the dollar is an economic Girly Man. We cannot believe you would treat such an esteemed mentor of yours with such blatant inconsideration. We believe that Warren Buffett has more economic sense than an entire arena full of politicians (either in Boston or New York), and therefore not deserving of such a derogatory term.

When you implored the average American consumer to not be a, “Girly Man,” it confused us. The average American taxpayer has been bearing the entire burden of this so-called economic recovery by donating his savings and home equity while going into record-breaking debt for the cause of a thriving economy. He is bravely buying and holding overpriced financial assets in his retirement accounts that pay miniscule dividends, while presuming unprecedented success and growth of American corporations in the future. If these over-leveraged citizens have serious concerns about the strength of the economy, are they in fact, “Girly Men”? They are showing their machismo by their actions (not their words), and do not deserve to be subject to a derogatory term. This is in direct contrast to the behavior of large publicly traded companies’ corporate executives.

-cut-

Today’s Market

It was an upside down day in the stock market as good news out of Nokia, Texas Instruments, Electronic Data Systems and happy talk out of John Snow gave the green light for speculators to bid up the Nasdaq by about 1%. In the real economy, the Dow was down marginally as the price of oil rose by almost $2 per barrel. Two weeks ago, I suggested that we probably had at most about 3% left in the current rally. This would have also corresponded to the point where the Nasdaq would whipsaw those who were waiting for an upside break of the 50-day moving average to buy (or cover shorts). While I will not dwell too much of whether that prediction was right or not (not a girly man, you see), it seems that today’s Nasdaq action may have put the market in a position where those waiting for the 50-day average to be broken before buying or covering shorts may be whip-sawed soon. Today’s Nasdaq gain came on the first healthy volume in about 3 weeks, and would when viewed alone is bullish. Let’s look at a year to date daily chart of the Nasdaq index, with various momentum indicators.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[UpInArms]

2. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.68 Change -0.15 (-0.17%)

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?font=Reuters&pv_noticia=MTFH06733_2004-09-10_12-05-47_L10460354

FOREX-Dollar edgy before US trade data, yen takes GDP hit

LONDON, Sept 10 (Reuters) - The dollar hit three-week lows against the euro on worries about the U.S. trade deficit ahead of data later on Friday, while the yen fell broadly on a surprising downward revision to Japanese growth.

The dollar came under pressure against European currencies ahead of the release of U.S. trade figures, after San Francisco Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen said on Thursday a turnaround in the U.S. current account deficit had "to involve the dollar".

The yen took a hit from figures showing Japan's economy grew by 0.3 percent in April-June from the previous quarter, down from an initial estimate of 0.4 percent growth and defying economists' forecasts for an upward revision.

"Today's trade number is going to be important. The dollar didn't like Yellen's comments, but she's right -- in order to get the trade deficit to stop increasing there needs to be an adjustment in the currency market," said Mansoor Mohi- uddin, chief currency strategist at UBS.

"Other things are driving the yen. The numbers that came out in Japan were a real surprise on the Q2 revision -- everyone expected Q2 GDP to be revised up and it actually came down."

...more...

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aVeQ33D7crys&refer=home

Japan Cuts Second-Quarter GDP Estimate to 1.3% Pace

Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Japan unexpectedly cut its estimate for second-quarter economic growth to a 1.3 percent annual pace, the slowest in more than a year, as some manufacturers reduced inventories on concern orders may fall. Stocks and the yen slid.

The pace of growth announced by the Cabinet Office in Tokyo was lower than the initial estimate of 1.7 percent and less than half the median 3.4 percent rate forecast for the revised figure by 21 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Growth slowed from a revised 6.4 percent annual expansion in the first quarter.

Exporters including Sony Corp., which drove a rebound in the world's second-largest economy, say demand is falling short of forecasts in the U.S. and other overseas markets. A reduction of stocks that accumulated in the first quarter was the biggest contributor to the revision, along with government spending curbs.

``There are increasing signs that the economy will slow further,'' said Yoshikiyo Shimamine, chief economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo. ``Electronic devices and parts, which were leading production, have accumulated inventories and export growth is starting to slow.''

...more...

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=atTfw1xpN1zY&refer=us

U.S. Treasuries Fall After Demand at Government Auction Drops

Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury notes fell for the first day this week after demand at the government's $9 billion auction of 10-year securities dropped to the lowest since March. The notes yielded a higher-than-expected 4.195 percent.

Some traders and investors said gains in Treasuries the past two days pushed yields too low given expectations for increases in the Federal Reserve's target overnight lending rate between banks as soon as this month.

``A 10-year note yield at 4.15 percent is incredibly low,'' Gary Pzegeo, who manages $5.3 billion in fixed-income assets at Gannett Welsh & Kotler LLC in Boston, said before the auction. ``It doesn't reflect economic fundamentals.''

At 3:45 p.m. in New York the 4 1/4 percent note due in August 2014 declined more than 1/4, or $2.50 per $1,000 face amount, to 100 13/16, according to New York-based bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. Its yield rose 4 basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 4.20 percent down from 4.88 percent in mid- June. The yield hit a five-month low of 4.08 percent last week.

<snip>

Note prices also declined after Jack Guynn, president of the Fed's Atlanta branch, said the central bank has scope to raise rates without restraining the economy. The Fed's current target rate is 1.50 percent. Roger Stern, head of the Fed's Minneapolis- branch, said he expects ``respectable'' gains in consumer spending.

Guynn, who doesn't vote when the central bank sets the benchmark interest rate this year, said leaving rates low might produce ``unintended consequences'' in the economy. He made the comment in an interview in his office late Wednesday.

...more...

[UpInArms]

3. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:16AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.5. Still looks like a basically unchanged start to the day for the indices at the end of pre- market trade... As for the treasury market, it has found bids across the curve following the August PPI report that showed inflation easing.

9:01AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: - 0.5. Futures indications have subsided some, and now signal a relatively flat open for the cash market... Aside from news of ORCL's success against the Dept of Justice in the PSFT bid, news items have been relatively few, leaving the futures to drift ahead of the weekend.

8:32AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.5. Futures trade gets a boost from the in line to slight better than expected August PPI and July Trade Balance reports... Confirmation that inflation, especially, has calmed in the wake of a pullback in oil prices, has been greeted with relief by investors... Right now the indices are set for a better open.

8:03AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -0.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.5. Futures trade pointing to a slightly lower open for the cash market following several earnings warnings from AA and the creep higher in the price of crude oil... The market will get more direction at 8:30 ET, with the simultaneous release of the July Trade Balance and the August PPI report.

ino.com

The September NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates just above the 38% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 1389.41 and the 10-day moving average crossing at 1381.65. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are bullish hinting that a short-term top might be near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1369.55 are needed to confirm that the rebound off August's low has come to an end. If September extends the rebound off August's low, the 50% retracement level crossing at 1415.97 is the next upside target. The September NASDAQ 100 was up 0.50 pt. at 1391.50 as of 5:51 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The September S&P 500 index showed no trade overnight. Here is a recap of Thursday's price action. The September S&P 500 index closed slightly lower on Thursday as it consolidates below the 75% retracement level of the July-August decline crossing at 1125.67. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. If September extends the late summer rally, the 75% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 1125.67 is the next upside target. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish but overbought hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1111.52 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted.

[UpInArms]

4. today's reports

Sep 10 8:30 AM
Core PPI Aug
report -0.1%
briefing.com anticipated 0.2%
market anticipated 0.1%
last report 0.1%
-

Sep 10 8:30 AM
PPI Aug
report -0.1%
briefing.com anticipated 0.2%
market anticipated 0.2%
last report 0.1%
-

Sep 10 8:30 AM
Trade Balance Jul
report -$50.1B
briefing.com anticipated -$51.3B
market anticipated -$51.5B
last report -$55.8B
-

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6204489

Trade Gap Narrows But Still 2nd Highest

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed more than expected in July, but still was the second highest on record at $50.1 billion even though imports dropped for the first time in 10 months and exports leapt higher, the U.S. government said on Friday.

The trade gap declined nearly 9 percent from a revised estimate of $55.0 billion in June for the biggest monthly decline since December 2001, the Commerce Department said. Analysts surveyed before the report had pegged the July trade deficit at $51.75 billion.

The near record deficit could renew pressure on the dollar, which has traded in broad range between about $1.1750 and $1.2450 against the euro the past six months.

On Thursday, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Janet Yellen said any turnaround in the U.S. trade deficit must involve the dollar.

...more...

http://www.canada.com/national/nationalpost/news/story.html?id=80175da2-a5a9-41b2-85c2-86388c88c730

U.S. wholesale prices dip; trade deficit shrinks with 3 % export rise

WASHINGTON (AP) - U.S. wholesale prices dipped 0.1 per cent in August as a retreat in food costs helped to blunt a rise in the price of some energy products, a fresh sign that inflation isn't currently a problem for the economy. In another report the U.S. trade deficit fell to $50.15 billion in July

The decline in the producer price index, which measures costs of goods before they reach store shelves, came after wholesale costs edged up by 0.1 per cent in July, the Labour Department reported Friday.

Core prices excluding food and energy costs can swing widely from month to month. These 'core' prices also fell in August by 0.1 per cent. That followed a 0.1 per cent rise the previous month.

The inflation picture painted by the report was better than economists were expecting. They were forecasting a 0.2 per cent rise in overall wholesale prices and a 0.1 per cent increase in core prices.

<snip>

The Commerce Department reported Friday that the 8.9 percent improvement in the deficit in July followed a 16.9 percent surge in June which had pushed the trade gap to a record $55.02 billion. Nevertheless, the $50.15 red-ink figure was the second highest imbalance on record.

Even with the slight narrowing, the trade deficit through July is running at a record annual rate of $581 billion, putting the country on track to surpass last year's all-time high deficit of $496.5 billion.

...more...

[UpInArms]

8. more information on PPI and core rates

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B9488A457%2D58F8%2D4094%2DA9AC%2D23C72709188D%7D&siteid=mktw

excerpt:

Some inflationary signs

Inflation still roared further back in the production cycle, however. Prices of intermediate goods destined for further processing rose 1 percent in August, the fastest gain since April.

Core intermediate goods prices also increased by 1 percent in August, bringing the year-over-year gain to 7.3 percent -- the highest in nine years.

Prices of intermediate energy goods rose 2.7 percent, including a 15.1 percent gain in jet fuel prices.

Plywood prices jumped 13.7 percent last month, while softwood lumber prices rose 8.1 percent.

Prices of crude materials fell 0.7 percent in August. Prices of crude industrial materials rose 4.5 percent, while crude foodstuffs prices dropped 4.6 percent.

Crude energy goods prices fell 0.1 percent, despite the 12.5 percent rise in crude oil prices. Natural gas prices fell 6.7 percent.

Core crude materials prices (which exclude energy) have risen a record 32.1 percent in the past year.

...more at link...

[UpInArms]

5. 9:34 EST markets are open

Dow 10,270.74 -18.36 (-0.18%)
Nasdaq 1,868.66 -0.99 (-0.05%)
S&P 500 1,116.38 -2.00 (-0.18%)
10-Yr Bond 4.152% -0.047

dollar unhappy

Last trade 88.29 Change -0.54 (-0.61%)

looks like the currency traders have it figured that with the signs of "no inflation", Meanspin will stop raising rates - great for the markets (they're on their way back up) and bad for the dollar (it's on its way down)

[UpInArms]

6. a few news stories

Bank merger results in 160 job cuts

http://www.dfw.com/mld/dfw/business/9627802.htm?1c

FORT WORTH - The Bank One commercial loan service center downtown will be closed in a consolidation of operations in the bank's merger with J.P. Morgan Chase, costing about 160 workers their jobs.

The center will be phased out over 18 months, bank officials confirmed Thursday.

"We decided within the commercial loan processing group to consolidate to three processing centers," said Chris Spencer, regional spokesman for the newly combined bank.

Some workers will have the option to transfer to service centers in Louisville, Ky., or Houston. The company also has a loan processing facility in Chicago.

...more...

Don't you just love those M&As?

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6203922

Japan's UFJ Warns of $7 Billion Loss

TOKYO (Reuters) - UFJ Holdings Inc. (8307.T: Quote, Profile, Research) , the ailing Japanese bank at the center of an unprecedented takeover battle, said on Friday it expected to post a half-year loss of about $7 billion as it speeds up its disposal of bad loans.

To make up the shortfall, UFJ will receive 700 billion yen ($6.4 billion) in capital from Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group (MTFG) (8306.T: Quote, Profile, Research) , the country's second-biggest bank and UFJ's preferred partner in the takeover struggle.

The infusion will help cement ties between UFJ and MTFG, which has been under pressure to lay out more details of its merger offer after third-ranked Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG) (8316.T: Quote, Profile, Research) launched a rival $31 billion bid.

MTFG has yet to say how much it would pay for UFJ, the smallest and weakest of Japan's four top banks, but UFJ said it believed MTFG's terms would not be inferior to SMFG's.

"We strongly believe the level of merger ratio that both MTFG and we think is feasible at the moment will be competitive with SMFG's proposal," UFJ said in a statement, giving no further details.

Either merger would create the world's largest bank in terms of assets, surpassing Citigroup (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research) of the United States.

...more...

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BFA044DA5-1A9B-4609-87C4-CB6485B8A865%7D&siteid=google&dist=google

Alcoa warns of Q3 earnings shortfall
Shares slump pre-market; Morgan Stanley lowers view

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Shares of Alcoa fell nearly 6 percent in pre-market trading Friday after the aluminum producer said it expects third-quarter earnings to fall short of Wall Street forecasts, citing a strike, a fire and restructuring costs.

The profit warning prompted a downgrade from investment bank Morgan Stanley to "equal weight" from "overweight."

Shares of Alcoa (AA: news, chart, profile) were last down $1.89, or 5.7 percent, at $31.40 in pre-market trading on Instinet. The stock, a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU: news, chart, profile), rose 39 cents to $33.29 on Friday. See market data on all Dow components.

Alcoa expects to report third-quarter operating earnings of 30 cents to 35 cents a share. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call had been expecting 52 cents a share.

...more...

[54anickel]

7. Couple of articles on health care costs and bennies

Fewer jobs offer health plans
http://www.freep.com/money/business/health10e_20040910.htm

NEW YORK -- Four years of double-digit growth in health-care premiums is taking a toll on workers: There are at least 5 million fewer jobs providing health insurance in 2004 than in 2001, a new study found.

Family premiums in employer-sponsored health plans jumped 11.2 percent to $9,950 annually, according to the survey of 3,017 employers released Wednesday by the Kaiser Family Foundation and the Health Research and Educational Trust.

This year, 63 percent of employers offered health benefits to workers, down from 68 percent in 2001. The change is primarily due to a decrease in the number of small employers, those with three to 199 workers, which offer coverage.

The average premium for a family of four grew to $9,950 annually. The family premium for a preferred provider organization, the most common type of insurance, hit $10,217 -- the first time it broke $10,000. PPOs are plans that provide members with a network of discounted providers that charge a copayment but also allow for the use of other doctors and hospitals.

more...



Cost of Insuring Workers' Health Increases 11.2%
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/10/business/10care.html



snip>

The survey found that the share of companies of all sizes offering health benefits to their workers declined to 61 percent, down from 65 percent in 2001. As a result, an estimated five million fewer workers have access to employer health care coverage than the 127 million reported in 2001, said John Gabel, vice president of Health Research and Educational Trust.

With health care high on the list of voter concerns in election year polls, the Bush and Kerry campaigns quickly jumped into the fray.

Senator John Kerry blamed Bush administration policies. "It's wrong to allow skyrocketing health care costs to choke off new jobs, eat up family incomes and leave millions uninsured," Mr. Kerry, the Democratic presidential candidate, said yesterday during a campaign stop in Des Moines.

The Census Bureau said last month that the nation's total number of uninsured people had risen by 1.4 million in 2003, to a record 45 million.

Reed Dickens, a spokesman for the Bush-Cheney campaign, said: "This administration has helped slow the rate of increase for the first time in seven years. The president's approach to this is a consumer-driven approach, and John Kerry's philosophy is to shift the decision-making power to the federal government and shift the financial burden to the taxpayer."

But Ms. Sullivan Hare at the Chamber of Commerce said that "neither presidential candidate is really talking about government policies to control health care inflation." She added that most employers feel frustrated by the problems but they do not see "any magic bullets to help bring down costs."

Health premiums are rising faster than the underlying cost of doctor and hospital care, as consolidation in the insurance industry has given insurers greater clout. The monthly cost of two-person coverage for workers and their spouses increased 23 percent, to $836.78, this year at the John G. Shelley Company, a distributor of industrial products with 26 employees in Wellesley Hills, Mass. Monthly premiums for individuals rose 13 percent, to $418.39.

more...

[54anickel]

10. Doctors take on Blue Cross

http://www.freep.com/money/business/blues10e_20040910.htm

In a lawsuit filed Thursday, two professional groups representing most Michigan physicians accused Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan of trying to force doctors to accept lower fees for services they provide to hundreds of thousands of autoworkers and their families.


If doctors refuse to comply, they will be prevented from participating in other Blue Cross PPO programs, cutting them off from nearly 3 million potential patients.


The suit was filed in Ingham County Circuit Court by the Michigan State Medical Society, which represents 14,500 medical doctors, and the Michigan Osteopathic Association, which represents 4,500 osteopathic physicians. It touches on two separate, but related issues embedded in the contracts negotiated between the UAW and Michigan's three automakers last September.


The contracts eliminated traditional Blue Cross plans and replaced them with preferred provider organizations, which encourage patients to go to a network of doctors who agree to lower fees.


DaimlerChrysler AG U.S. employees switched to the new health plan April 1, followed by General Motors Corp. workers on July 1 and Ford Motor Co. enrollees on Sept. 1.

more...

[54anickel]

9. Sudden drop in US bond demand

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/e3717ce4-02cb-11d9-a968-00000e2511c8.html

A Treasury auction of US government bonds yesterday attracted almost no private demand, creating confusion in the bond markets following a sale on Wednesday that had pulled in unprecedented private appetite.

Bond prices fell in the market after the Treasury revealed yesterday that indirect bidders, who include foreign central banks and other official institutions, took only 2.9 per cent of the bonds on offer compared with an average of about 32 per cent at the previous 10 auctions.

The sale, of $9bn in 10-year paper, was largely bought up by primary dealers - banks who are licensed to deal directly with the Federal Reserve and in return have to underwrite the auction. Usually primary dealers buy about one-third for their own account but the lack of appetite yesterday meant they took 96 per cent. The bonds on offer were a regular re-opening, or repeat, of bonds offered last month.

"Indirect bidding is sometimes lower on a re-opening but its hard to explain this," said Rick Klingman, head of US Treasury trading at ABN Amro.

The previous record low for indirect bids was 19.9 per cent.

snip>

...Bidders who deal direct with the Treasury usually only amount to about 1 per cent of any auction but on Wednesday, unknown parties took about one-third of the bonds on offer instead of going through the banks, prompting fears that Wall Street could be losing its grip on the market.

"These auctions are confusing for the street,"...

more...

[UpInArms]

11. Belden to close 3 plants; sees $11.5M charge

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38240.4131481481-820207912&doctype=806&siteid=mktw&selCount=20&value=&property=symb&

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Belden CDT (BDC) said it plans to close three plants located in Massachusetts, California and the United Kingdom, respectively. These facilities currently employ a total of roughly 332 people, and the company estimates the operations being closed generate annual revenue of roughly $60 million. In addition, Belden said it plans to cease production of certain lower margin products in the Netherlands, a move that will result in the elimination of an additional 150 to 200 jobs over the next several quarters. The St. Louis cable manufacturer expects these actions and others announced earlier to result in a charge of $11.5 million in the current quarter. Shares slipped 10 cents to $20.55 in early trading.

[54anickel]

12. Will Big Four Audit Firms Survive in a World of Unlimited Liability?

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/10/business/10norris.html

RE the Big Four accounting firms members of an endangered species, destined to die from litigation?

Within the accounting profession there has been growing fear ever since Arthur Andersen vanished in a sea of liability that it was only a matter of time before another firm followed. And then, the thought goes, the others would find it impossible to persuade partners to stay, lest their net worth be decimated as happened at Andersen.

Perhaps the situation is not unlike the one that confronts the major airlines. Never has there been such need and demand for the service they provide, but as commercial ventures their viability is dubious at best. The difference is that there are a host of low-cost airlines willing to take up the slack if Alitalia or United should vanish, while it is not at all clear who could replace the Big Four.

The alternative of government auditors is an unattractive one. The quality of the audits would be suspect, if only because of the difficulty in attracting good auditors at government pay, and political influence could be a problem. Consider the way technology companies got the House of Representatives to oppose reasonable accounting for stock options, or the fact that the European Commission is on the verge of overruling an international accounting rule on derivative accounting after heavy lobbying by banks.

It is easier to understand how we got to the current situation than it is to figure out how to get out of it. Over time, the big accounting firms sought growth rather than excellence. Partners were rewarded for bringing in more business and penalized for offending clients with tough audits. There was no effective regulator.

more...

[54anickel]

13. The risks ahead for the world economy

http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3172404

Fred Bergsten explains why policymakers need to act now in order to avert the danger of serious damage to the world economy

FIVE major risks threaten the world economy. Three centre on the United States: renewed sharp increases in the current-account deficit leading to a crash of the dollar; a budget profile that is out of control; and an outbreak of trade protectionism. A fourth relates to China, which faces a possible hard landing from its recent overheating. The fifth is that oil prices could rise to $60-70 per barrel even without a major political or terrorist disruption, and much higher with one.

Most of these risks reinforce each other. A further oil shock, a dollar collapse and a soaring American budget deficit would all generate much higher inflation and interest rates. A sharp dollar decline would increase the likelihood of further oil price rises. Larger budget deficits will produce larger American trade deficits, and thus more protectionism and dollar vulnerability. Realisation of any one of the five risks could substantially reduce world growth. If two or three, let alone all five, were to occur in combination then they would radically reverse the global outlook.

There is still time to head off each of these risks. Decisions made in America immediately after this year's elections will be pivotal. China, the new growth locomotive, is key to resolving the global trade imbalances and must play a central role in future. Action by a number of other countries will be essential to maintain global growth and to avoid deeper oil shocks and new trade restrictions.

The most alarming new prospect is another sharp deterioration in America's current-account deficit. It has already reached an annual rate of $600 billion, well above 5% of the economy. New projections by my colleague Catherine Mann (see chart 1) suggest it will now be rising again by a full percentage point of GDP per year, as actually occurred in 1997-2000. On such a trajectory, the deficit would exceed $1 trillion per year by 2010.

There are three reasons for this dismal prospect. First, American merchandise imports are now almost twice as large as exports; hence exports would have to grow twice as fast as imports merely to halt the deterioration. (In the past, such a relationship occurred only after the massive fall experienced by the dollar in 1985-87.) Second, economic growth is likely to remain faster in America than in its major markets and higher incomes there increase demand for imports much faster than income growth elsewhere increases demand for American exports. Third, America's large debtor position (it currently is in the red by more than $2.5 trillion) means that its net investment income payments to foreigners will escalate steadily, especially as interest rates rise.

Of course, it is virtually inconceivable that the markets will permit such deficits to eventuate. The only issue is how they are to be averted. An immediate resumption of the gradual decline of the dollar, as in the period 2002-03, cumulating in a fall of at least another 20%, is needed to reduce the deficits to sustainable levels.

more...

[UpInArms]

14. Oil continues to rally

http://money.cnn.com/2004/09/10/markets/oil.reut/

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices made fresh gains Friday, after leaping almost $2 a day earlier, as the U.S. government said crude stocks sank for the sixth straight week last week and distillate fuels barely grew ahead of winter.

Traders also fear Hurricane Ivan may next week strike the Gulf of Mexico, home to about a quarter of U.S. oil and gas production, although the storm's forecast track is to the east of most energy facilities.

U.S. light crude was up 27 cents at $44.88 a barrel in electronic trading, after heavy buying pushed prices up $1.84 on Thursday.


Prices are now less than $5 below last month's record highs. London Brent crude was up 16 cents at $42.38 a barrel.

Thursday's surge followed a report by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showing commercial crude oil stocks down more than 6 percent in the last two months to the lowest level since March.

...more...

[UpInArms]

15. 10:43 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,261.89 -27.21 (-0.26%)
Nasdaq 1,881.15 +11.50 (+0.62%)
S&P 500 1,118.24 -0.14 (-0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 4.174% -0.025

10:35AM: The market continues to improve its stance as the tech sector climbs higher... Semiconductor, software, networking, disk drive, internet, and computer hardware have all performed exceptionally well and have helped the Nasdaq pierce last week's high of 1876... As for the blue chips, they have lagged behind on account of selling in homebuilding, airline, drug, basic material, and energy... The latter is particularly interesting considering the price of crude oil's more than 4% price spike...

The commodity now trades around $44.61/bbl as the decline in weekly oil inventories (the sixth consecutive week) and the approach of Hurricane Ivan (where it will disrupt US of oil rigs) have kept supply concerns persistent... SOX +2.4, NYSE Adv/Dec 1286/1542, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1409/1153

10:00AM: Major indices edge off their opening losses as the Nasdaq crosses into positive territory... The tech sector has shown relative strength in the early action, led by a standout software sector... News that a Federal Judge sided with Oracle (ORCL 10.23 +0.30) in the PeopleSoft (PSFT 19.93 +1.98)/Department of Justice dispute has raised interest in the space as speculation has abounded further consolidation will ensue...Several analysts believe Oracle will raise its bid in the coming weeks in an attempt to woo PeopleSoft shareholders...

Briefing.com, for one, expected the surprise decision, with a detailed analysis of it (and its implications) on Story Stocks...NYSE Adv/Dec 928/1614, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 824/1464

dollar

Last trade 88.28 Change -0.55 (-0.62%)

[54anickel]

16. An Alternative Inflation Index

While I don't believe in making up one's own index, (heck - you can make stats say whatever you like) he raises some interesting points to ponder.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/paulos090904.html

I have long been a strong critic of the US government’s reporting of price inflation. I claim that the government statistics significantly understate the true inflation rate but I have not been able to back up my criticism with any real hard data due to the lack of an alternative inflation gauge. The lack of alternate data inspired me to create my own inflation index using price data from my own memory, the internet, old receipts, and old catalogs to see how it compares to the official inflation figure.

Inflation is a personal experience with a slightly different effect on each individual depending on his or her particular mix of consumption, locality, and ability to find a bargain. However, these differences tend to even out over time so the most effective measurement is over a long sample period. To construct the index, I recovered the average price for a variety of products and services from 1968 and compared them to the same item today.

1968 is an important year because it represents a transition from the stable prices of the previous decades to the Great Inflation years of the 1970s. Interest rates were just starting to rise above long-standing norms and prices were starting to take off. The international gold standard started unraveling in 1968 with introduction of a two-tiered gold price system that ultimately led to total abandonment of the gold standard several years later. 1968 represents the beginning of a series of price adjustments that pummeled the buying power of the US dollar.

Methodology

The Freebuck.com Inflation Index is an average of price components that is weighted and categorized in approximately the same manner as the official Consumer Price Index. Housing represents the largest component at 40% with other categories having lesser impact. The inflation rate is calculated as a price multiplier with a base year of 1968 which represents the number of 2004 dollars that are required to purchase what $1 bought in 1968. The annualized inflation rate is the equivalent average compounded yearly inflation rate over the 36 year period. Prices were selected to be representative of the times, not necessarily exact price quotes. To make the price comparison meaningful, index components were selected that are similar in function and quality in both time periods. No hedonic adjustments for quality changes have been made. Some prices were unique to my home state of Minnesota where national data was unavailable. Components were selected to be representative of that product or service category. Of course, much is excluded to keep the index simple.

Browse the Index components and if you are old enough to remember, ponder how prices have evolved over 36 years.

more....

[UpInArms]

17. Dollar drops as PPI dims Fed pressure

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BACC368A1%2D5091%2D4A5E%2D876E%2D14324B517114%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (CSB.MW) -- The dollar on Friday fell against key currency rivals as the market bypassed a narrowed U.S. trade gap in July to focus on an August drop in producer prices.

Prices of U.S. wholesale goods and services fell 0.1 percent in August, the Labor Department reported. The core producer price index also fell 0.1 percent. Read the full story.

The figures, which cast inflation in a more benign light, are seen as reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to hasten its recent trend of hiking overnight lending rates.

Higher U.S. rates would narrow the yield disadvantage that dollar-based investments carry compared to investments offered in countries with higher interest rates.

Also Friday, the Commerce Department said the nation's trade deficit was trimmed by 8.9 percent in July to $50.1 billion. The tally fell under the consensus of Wall Street economists, who forecast a deficit of $52.2 billion. Read the full story.

<snip>

The U.S. currency had traded lower overnight against both the euro and the pound on anticipation the Commerce Department would report a widening U.S. trade deficit for July.

In other U.S. trading, the dollar fell 0.3 percent vs. the Japanese yen, with the greenback quoted at 109.21 yen in early New York action.

...more...

[UpInArms]

18. Short sellers lead hedge funds in Aug.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B1D889523%2D1F29%2D41DB%2DB9E8%2D2C8D5CCBEDA1%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Managers specializing in short selling led gains among hedge funds in August as they bet on falling technology stocks in the wake of warnings from Intel and Cisco Systems, Hennessee Group said Friday.

Hennessee's Short Biased Index gained 5.37 percent last month as the technology- heavy Nasdaq Composite index dropped 2.6 percent, the hedge-fund consultant said in a statement. The index, which also led gains in July, has climbed more than 20 percent this year, topping all other strategies, as the Nasdaq has lost over 8 percent.

In a short sale, managers sell borrowed securities in the hope of buying them back at a lower price, returning them to the lender at the original price and pocketing the difference.

The broad Hennessee Hedge Fund index, which tracks more than 730 hedge funds, edged up 0.17 percent in August, leaving it up 1.16 percent this year, ahead of the benchmark S&P 500 stock index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Hennessee said.

Concerns about terrorist attacks ahead of the U.S. election, weak capital spending and a fizzling economic recovery deterred many managers from taking big bets in August, Hennessee said.

"Hedge fund managers indicated that they fear the recovery is losing steam," said Charles Gradante, managing principal of Hennessee. "It is one of the toughest markets to play with any conviction and this lack of conviction breeds weakness."

...more...

[UpInArms]

19. FED: Says solid economy doesn't need rates at such low levels

Take rate hikes as good news: Fed's Pinalto
Says solid economy doesn't need rates at such low levels

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B62E85CAC%2DAB15%2D439B%2D95EC%2DDA8C75EAC618%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The Federal Reserve's policy of gradual interest-rate hikes should be viewed as good news that the U.S. economy has enough gas that it doesn't need the rocket fuel that low rates supply, a Fed bank president said Friday.

"Our economy no longer requires the substantial amount of policy accommodation that it did until relatively recently," said Sandra Pianalto, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, in a speech to an Ohio banking conference in New Mexico.

Pianalto, a voting member of the policy- setting Federal Open Market Committee this year, suggested that Fed officials would continue hiking rates at a measured pace.

"As the economy continues to expand, we can continue to withdraw our policy accommodation so that we don't unintentionally promote an inflationary environment down the road," she said.

Pianalto urged the bankers to embrace rising rates as good news.

"At this stage of the expansion, rising interest rates reflect a return to a more normal economic environment," Pianalto said.

...more...

So what did this guy say??!?

[UpInArms]

20. The Five Dumbest Things on Wall Street This Week

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/dumbestgm/10182263.html

1. Uno, Dos, Tres, Quattrone

Remember how you lost all that money in the dot-com bubble while all those other people made off like bandits? Remember how angry that made you -- how you wanted to lash out at one of the winners?

Well, you can't. But on Wednesday, somebody did it for you.

We're talking about Judge Richard Owen, who on Wednesday lit into former tech banker Frank Quattrone.

Owen, who oversaw Quattrone's obstruction of justice conviction earlier this year, showed no mercy during the banker's sentencing Wednesday.

<snip>

2. Delta Is Ready, but We Aren't

Boy, we feel sorry for the employees of Delta Air Lines (DAL:NYSE - news - research).

Up to 7,000 of them will lose their jobs over the next 18 months, Delta executives said Wednesday. The folks who remain will likely see their pay cut and their benefits reduced. And, as airlines reporter Eric Gillin has reminded us in recent days, the whole legacy airline industry is fast swirling around in the metaphorical toilet.

<snip>

3. Off on a Tangent

You know how companies always say stuff like "Employees are our most valuable asset" or "Our most valuable assets walk out the door each night"?





Well, they're not saying that at CoSine Communications (COSN:Nasdaq - news - research).

Like so many other companies in the postbubble telecom industry, the troubled equipment supplier has reached that regrettable state of affairs in which the only employees of any value are the ones with arcane talents, like raising Lazarus and/or distressed telecom companies from the dead. The rest of them get in the way.

On Wednesday, CoSine -- which had 148 full- timers as of Dec. 31 -- said it would lay off most of its employees by the end of the month.

<snip>

4. Times Are Hard. But Not Hard Enough, Evidently

Imagine a sickly child going to the Make-A-Wish Foundation, only to be told, "Sorry, kid. Come back when you're a little closer to death's door."

Well, that's sort of like what happened to Liberate Technologies (LBRTQ:Other OTC - news - research) this week.

On Thursday, the digital cable software developer regretfully announced that its April 30 filing for bankruptcy protection had been dismissed by the presiding judge. "The court ruled that Liberate has cash well in excess of its liabilities," announced Liberate, "and is not otherwise entitled to bankruptcy protection."

<snip>

5. If It's Wednesday, This Must Be Thursday in New Zealand

Say what you will about the obfuscations of Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan. He may speak gibberish most of the time, but at least the guy appears to know what day it is.

Which gives him a leg up on at least one government finance official in another part of the world.

...more...

[UpInArms]

21. 12:05 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,254.08 -35.02 (-0.34%)
Nasdaq 1,879.19 +9.54 (+0.51%)
S&P 500 1,117.75 -0.63 (-0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 4.184% -0.015

12:00PM: It's been a mixed market for the entirety of the morning, as the blue chips have been hurt by a round of warnings, and tech has benefited from news of Oracle's (ORCL 10.43 +0.50) victory over the Department of Justice... A federal judge rejected a request to block Oracle's $7.7 bln bid for PeopleSoft (PSFT 19.82 +1.87) last night, and that has only intensified expectations for further consolidation in the software industry... Application software has clearly been the best performing group, along with hardware, disk drive, networking, and semiconductor...

The blue chips, however, have been held back by selling in drug, homebuilding, airline, oil driller, and basic material... The latter has stumbled following Alcoa's (AA 30.66 -2.63) warning that Q3 (Sept) profits will fall short of expectations... Airline has plunged after reports emerged US Airways (UAIR 1.48 -0.27) will file for bankruptcy on Sunday... Economic data have been mostly upbeat - in contrast - with the July Trade Balance shrinking to -$50.1 bln (consensus of -$51.5 bln) and the August PPI index dropping 0.1% (consensus of +0.1%)...

The latter has been a boon to the treasury market, which has advanced across the curve...

dollar

Last trade 88.20 Change -0.63 (-0.71%)

Settle 88.83 Settle Time 23:32

Open 88.56 Previous Close 88.83

High 88.94 Low 88.11

Volume 1,738
Last tick: 2004-09-10 11:25:18 ET
30-min delayed quote

[UpInArms]

22. US Air bankruptcy may come Sunday (Chap.7 - liquidation)

http://money.cnn.com/2004/09/10/news/fortune500/usair_bankruptcy/

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - US Airways Group is likely to file for bankruptcy court protection as soon as Sunday, according to a published report.

The New York Times reported the imminent filing Friday, quoting people briefed on the situation. It would be the second trip into bankruptcy for the nation's No. 7 airline in just over two years, but this time it could find difficulty emerging from bankruptcy court protections.

Both the Times and the Wall Street Journal reported Friday that the company has no collateral with which to arrange interim financing in the event of a bankruptcy filing, forcing it to get by on unrestricted cash on hand and complicating any effort to reorganize.


Normally companies that file under Chapter 11 of bankruptcy code, which allows for continued operations, announce a financing package that allows them to fund operations while operating under bankruptcy protection. Without such financing, there is a risk the company could be forced into Chapter 7 bankruptcy, which would bring on liquidation.

...more...

[UpInArms]

23. Newsday's circulation revised down again

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ny-bzcirc110904,1,4780544.story?coll=chi-business-hed

The parent company of Newsday and Hoy this morning announced substantial reductions in their respective circulations that are more than double earlier revisions and indicate the circulation scandal is worse than previously disclosed.

Tribune Co. also said it would set aside an additional $45 million to $60 million to pay settlements to aggrieved advertisers. This is on top of the $35 million earmarked in July.

The announcement means Newsday's daily and Sunday circulation figures for the year ended Sept. 30, 2004, will fall below baseline guarantees of 525,000 daily and 575,000 Sunday given to advertisers by new publisher Timothy P. Knight July 27.

The paper's circulation for the full year, Tribune said, would be "somewhat below" the 480,000-490,000 copies of the weekday paper and 540,000-550,000 of Sunday's editions sold during the six months ended March 30.

With the latest numbers, Newsday's ranking among the nation's largest newspapers is likely to drop out of the Top 10; it had been No. 9.

This second round of revisions shows that Newsday's daily sales had been falsely inflated by between 90,000 and 100,000 copies and by between 122,000 and 132,000 copies on Sundays. This is more than double the amount of fraudulent circulation Newsday announced in June, when it first disclosed circulation problems.

...more...

[UpInArms]

24. 2:24 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,266.61 -22.49 (-0.22%)
Nasdaq 1,883.22 +13.57 (+0.73%)
S&P 500 1,118.58 +0.20 (+0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 4.160% -0.039

2:00PM: After a run at session highs, the market has slipped slightly lower although it has not broken from the day's slim range... Crude oil has actually reversed course and surrendered all of its gains - now marginally lower for the day... The October contract now stands at $44.25/bbl as traders have taken profits from the initial strength (trading at two-week highs)... Oil driller and service have turned even lower in response and contributed to the negative bias in the broader market...

Financial has actually held its head above water (along with retail), but most other groups have been flat to weaker for the day...NYSE Adv/Dec 1716/1481, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1667/ 1272

1:25PM: Stocks continue to creep higher ever so slightly as the tech sector rallies... Semiconductor has neared its best levels of the session and taken the rest of technology with it... The S&P 500, however, cannot keep up and has fallen behind owing to losses in energy, consumer staple, and material... The small-cap and mid-caps, in fact, have outperformed their large-cap peers today... During a day in which tech has led the market, it is not surprising to see other areas - also considered growth-oriented - show relative strength...NYSE Adv/Dec 1658/1507, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1615/1308

1:00PM: The indices continues to tread water around the unchanged mark, unable to generate much momentum in either direction... Tech remains the key leader today - up the entire day on account of the Oracle (ORCL 10.45 +0.52) ruling... The blue chips, though, have suffered from profit taking in an extension of their weakness this week... Tech has generally performed better as it retreated the most in the mid-summer pullback...



the 2 o'clock fairy seems to be right on time ;)

[UpInArms]

25. 3:16 EST markets and numbers (all is well)

Dow 10,301.65 +12.55 (+0.12%)
Nasdaq 1,891.10 +21.45 (+1.15%)
S&P 500 1,123.15 +4.77 (+0.43%)
10-Yr Bond 4.181% -0.018

2:55PM: The indices quickly move to their best levels as the 4% plummet in the price of crude oil prompts a rally... Traders have fled the commodity not wanting to own exposure over the weekend, with Hurricane Ivan approaching and the anniversary of the September 11 attacks on Saturday... As a result, crude oil has closed out the session at $42.90/bbl... For the first time today, the Dow has cross into positive territory thanks to heavier buying in financial, transportation, and tech... The Nasdaq itself is boosting gains of 1.2% on account of the latter...SOX +3.5, NYSE Adv/Dec 1814/1434, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1775/1207

2:30PM: More of the same for the major indices as they continue to bide their time around the flat line... This week has marked a return to higher volume levels, although they still continue to lag the daily average.... Volume at the Nasdaq, for instance, is currently running ahead of yesterday which was above average and the highest in roughly a month... This owes to Oracle's (ORCL 10.45 +0.52) victory over the Department of Justice last night in its pursuit of PeopleSoft (PSFT 19.86 +1.91)... Activity at the NYSE, conversely, has been much slower than that of the last few sessions...NYSE Adv/Dec 1713/1520, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1655/1312

[54anickel]

26. Looks like another happy Friday!

Markets are doing pretty well.

Just got back from my interview. It went very well, at least I think it did (2 hours long!). I really like this job opportunity and I hope I can land it! It's a perfect fit for both my background and interests! It also appears I'll be able to balance this with school quite easily.

[KoKo]

27. Sounds good "54" fingers crossed for you.

((good vibes)))

[UpInArms]

28. I hope that the "happy Friday" belongs to you

54anickel :D



have to run away before the closing blather comes out -

have a great weekend everyone!

:hi:

[54anickel]

30. Thanks KoKo and UIA! I did get some other good news today as

well, looks like that displaced worker funding might be coming thru after all as well!

Things are finally looking up around the nickel household. Just gotta keep the faith!

[54anickel]

29. Tinkerbell was right on schedule again today I see. n/t

[54anickel]

31. Capture of the closing numbers & blather on the 2:00 fairies

Dow 10,313.07 +23.97 (+0.23%)
Nasdaq 1,894.31 +24.66 (+1.32%)
S&P 500 1,123.92 +5.54 (+0.50%)
10-yr Bond 4.18% -0.019
30-yr Bond 4.971% -0.017
NYSE Volume 1,261,270,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,617,285,000

Close Dow +23.97 at 10313.07, S&P +5.54 at 1123.92, Nasdaq +24.66 at 1894.31: It was a slow start for the market - that lasted six hours in fact - when a rally swept the indices and translated into a close near session highs... The catalyst for the uptick was - in the absence of other influential news items - the sudden reversal in the price of crude oil... The commodity had begun the day with gains, but then quickly reversed course after hitting a two-week high...
Traders used the strength as an opportunity to take profits, particularly in the presence of Hurricane Ivan (that was approaching the Gulf of Mexico, where 25% of US oil production takes place) and the anniversary of the September 11 attacks on Saturday... This led buyers to place more money in the sectors that had outperformed all day - namely tech... Indeed, the group was the standout name of the session thanks to a ruling against the Department of Justice in the Oracle/PeopleSoft matter... Oracle (ORCL 10.46 +0.53) can now proceed with its proposed $7.7 bln acquisition of PeopleSoft (PSFT 19.89 +1.94), and will likely raise the offer price to sweeten the deal for PeopleSoft shareholders...

As for the blue chips, they managed a positive finish but were held back most of the day by losses in energy (off the aforementioned oil plunge) and basic material...The latter trailed following Alcoa's (AA 30.70 -2.59) reduced Q3 (Sept) guidance on softness in the automotive, packaging, and European end markets... Economically-sensitive issues (like retail and transportation), though, generally outperformed the broader market thanks to bullish economic data... The July Trade Balance shrank to -$50.1 bln (consensus of -$51.5 bln) and the August PPI index dropped 0.1% (consensus of +0.1%) - effectively easing worries about a surge in inflation...SOX +3.4, NYSE Adv/Dec 1992/1286, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1853/1204

3:30PM : The market continues to climb higher under the auspices of a strong tech sector... As it has been leading all day, tech was picked up in the latest buying drive - brought on by the sudden fall in the price of crude oil... Today's action can be described as choppy - the indices trading in split fashion most of the day, and then rallying around 13 ET... The resilience of the market in the earlier action likely invited further buying interest, and enabled the scale to shift in favor of buyers...

Right now, up volume is leading down volume by a 2-to-1 margin at the NYSE and a 4-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq...NYSE Adv/Dec 1919/1334, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1863/1147

2:55PM : The indices quickly move to their best levels as the 4% plummet in the price of crude oil prompts a rally... Traders have fled the commodity not wanting to own exposure over the weekend, with Hurricane Ivan approaching and the anniversary of the September 11 attacks on Saturday... As a result, crude oil has closed out the session at $42.90/bbl... For the first time today, the Dow has cross into positive territory thanks to heavier buying in financial, transportation, and tech... The Nasdaq itself is boosting gains of 1.2% on account of the latter...SOX +3.5, NYSE Adv/Dec 1814/1434, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1775/1207

[54anickel]

32. The Dishonesty Thing - Krugman

http://www.truthout.org/docs_04/091104C.shtml

snip>

For example, back in February the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities accused the Bush administration of, in effect, playing three-card monte with budget forecasts. It pointed out that the administration's deficit forecast was far above those of independent analysts, and suggested that this exaggeration was deliberate.

"Overstating the 2004 deficit," the center wrote, "could allow the president to announce significant 'progress' on the deficit in late October - shortly before Election Day - when the Treasury Department announces the final figures."

Was this a wild accusation from a liberal think tank? No, it's conventional wisdom among experts. Two months ago Stanley Collender, a respected nonpartisan analyst, warned: "At some point over the next few weeks, the Office of Management and Budget will release the administration's midsession budget review and try to convince everyone the federal deficit is falling. Don't believe them."

He went on to echo the center's analysis. The administration's standard procedure, he said, is to initially issue an unrealistically high deficit forecast, which is "politically motivated or just plain bad." Then, when the actual number comes in below the forecast, officials declare that the deficit is falling, even though it's higher than the previous year's deficit.

more...