STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 7 September

[ozymandius]

Tuesday September 7, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 135
DAYS UNTIL W* GETS HIS PINK SLIP 56
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 270 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 324 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 537
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1020
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 3, 2004

Dow... 10,260.20 -30.08 (-0.29%)
Nasdaq... 1,844.48 -28.95 (-1.55%)
S&P 500... 1,113.63 -4.68 (-0.42%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.29% +0.10 (+2.36%)
Gold future... 402.50 -5.20 (-1.29%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [email protected]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

The Battle With the Dollar Continues and Still No Resolution

The technical battle of the dollar for survival continues to unfold. The dollar seems to win one round and then the next round will go to gold. It’s as if each of these markets understand the importance of this battle and both are fighting to the death. In my opinion, this is exactly what is going on. Only one of these markets is right and there is no second place.

The critical cycle high and low points, which now represent the battle lines, continue to change. Since this battle is so very important and because the levels have changed some since last week, I wanted to give you another update by walking through the dollar chart. Below is a daily chart of the dollar. The dollar is still trapped inside of a trading range that it can’t quite break out of. The boundaries of this range are set by the June top at 90.56 and the July bottom at 87.20. These boundary limits are shown in red on the daily chart below. Within these limits are now a couple of sub-boundary limits, which also represent very important support and resistance levels. These sub-boundary limits are also very important for our cyclical analysis.

-cut-

I hope that you can see how this battlefield between bullish and bearish has been narrowing from the levels that are represented in red to the current levels that are represented in blue. This narrowing is going to force a resolution. The limits in red are the primary limits of importance. But, it is the violation of the limits outlined in blue that will provide us with the first clues.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[54anickel]

2. My but don't those futures look bright! Must be that glut of oil that's

being reported.

U.S. Oil Falls After Saudi Cuts

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6166286

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - U.S. oil prices fell on Tuesday after top exporter Saudi Arabia deeply cut prices for its crude sales to Europe and the United States to shift the large volumes it is offering to cool world markets.
U.S. light crude fell 84 cents to $43.15 a barrel in the first trade since the long Labor Day weekend. London Brent crude, which slid 61 cents on Monday to $40.62 a barrel was unchanged.

Saudi Arabia, which has pledged to supply customers all the crude they want to stem this year's price rally, slashed prices for westbound shipments of October-loading crude, a sign that Riyadh is having to entice buyers to take its crude.

The kingdom is estimated to have pumped 9.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, when U.S. oil hit a record $49.40 a barrel. Its output is expected to hit 10 million bpd this month.

But most of the extra supply is of heavier grades of crude oil, which are less attractive to refiners because of their high yield of low-value fuel oil. Refiners prefer lighter grades, which yield more higher-value products like gasoline.

more...

[UpInArms]

7. there we go - seeing the same things again

:thumbsup:

[loudsue]

28. The Saudis TOLD Bush They'd Keep Oil $$ Down until Nov. 2

Remember? We heard about this waaay back?

Makes ya go 'hmmm'.

:kick::kick::kick:

[54anickel]

3. Gold May Rise on Oil-Cost Risk to Growth, Survey Says

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a_Rzg3dHf7E0&refer=us


Sept. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Gold may rise for the first week in three on concern high oil prices will slow the U.S. economy and boost the appeal of precious metals as an alternative investment to stocks, a Bloomberg survey showed.

Nineteen of 43 traders, investors and analysts surveyed from Sydney to New York on Sept. 2 and Sept. 3 advised buying gold, which fell 0.7 percent to $402.50 an ounce in New York last week. Fourteen recommended selling the metal and 10 were neutral.

Gold rallied to a four-month high of $416.80 an ounce Aug. 20 as crude oil surged to a record of $49.40 a barrel. Oil is 49 percent higher than a year ago, leading to higher fuel costs that helped slow retail spending and reduced automobile sales.

Oil and gold ``have a historical relationship,'' said Patrick Chidley, an analyst at Barnard Jacobs Mellet (USA) LLC in New York. ``When oil blows and gets going, gold follows it up. People had taken a breather on fear of inflation, but the fundamentals have not gone away.''

more...

[UpInArms]

4. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 89.51 Change -0.02 (-0.02%)

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?font=Reuters&pv_noticia=MTFH10775_2004-09-07_12-25-18_L07214141

FOREX-Dollar steps back ahead of Greenspan's testimony

LONDON, Sept 7 (Reuters) - The dollar eased further off last week's highs against the euro and yen on Tuesday as investors turned cautious ahead of Wednesday's assessment of the U.S. economy by Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan.

U.S. jobs data on Friday supported expectations the Fed would raise rates by 25 basis points later this month to 1.75 percent and sent the dollar one percent higher. But the numbers failed to provide a sustained boost to the greenback, with markets already pricing in a quarter-point rate hike this month.

Greenspan's testimony is expected to reiterate the Fed's stance that interest rates will have to rise at a moderate pace, and analysts question whether this will be enough to power the dollar higher again.

"The market is correcting Friday's move (after payrolls)," said Ian Gunner, head of foreign exchange research at Mellon Bank in London.

"People are looking towards Greenspan and waiting to see how the U.S. will react after Labor Day."

...more...

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6166286

U.S. Oil Falls After Saudi Cuts

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - U.S. oil prices fell on Tuesday after top exporter Saudi Arabia deeply cut prices for its crude sales to Europe and the United States to shift the large volumes it is offering to cool world markets.

U.S. light crude fell 84 cents to $43.15 a barrel in the first trade since the long Labor Day weekend. London Brent crude, which slid 61 cents on Monday to $40.62 a barrel was unchanged.

Saudi Arabia, which has pledged to supply customers all the crude they want to stem this year's price rally, slashed prices for westbound shipments of October-loading crude, a sign that Riyadh is having to entice buyers to take its crude.

The kingdom is estimated to have pumped 9.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, when U.S. oil hit a record $49.40 a barrel. Its output is expected to hit 10 million bpd this month.

But most of the extra supply is of heavier grades of crude oil, which are less attractive to refiners because of their high yield of low-value fuel oil. Refiners prefer lighter grades, which yield more higher-value products like gasoline.

...more...

Bandar Bush's promise to get those oil prices down!

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[54anickel]

14. The buck is headed the wrong way! Looks like Greenspin has their

attention more than Bandar Bush right now!

[54anickel]

5. Big hedge fund inflows give cause for concern

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/44894806-ffa0-11d8-be93-00000e2511c8.html

snip>

This inflow of money has led to worries about whether there is too much money going into illiquid areas, requiring managers to be more aggressive in their efforts to maintain returns, which have fallen this year.

Concern is fuelled by the funds' use of leverage to lift returns, which can multiply the amount of money put to work by a fund by up to 10 times its assets under management.

One person familiar with the planned review, which is only one of the areas to be covered by the forum, says it "is driven by concerns that have been growing over the last six months.

" follows flows into hedge funds rising at a rapid rate, and anecdotal reports of leverage rising from potential slippage by the banks who lend money to hedge funds, and by the funds of hedge funds who are borrowing heavily."

One hedge fund manager says: "There is definite potential for investors in funds of hedge funds to experience greater losses than ever before due to the funds' leverage."

Hedge funds rely on investment banks as counter-parties for their trades and borrowing. Concern has been mounting that a collection of hedge fund collapses, where a group of managers have following similar investment paths, could lead to big losses at one of these banks.

more...

[54anickel]

6. Home-Price Rise in U.S. May Slow, Hurting Confidence in Economy

Personally I'd be happy to see it slow down, but then I don't consider my home as an investment. I'd like to be able to continue to afford the freakin' property tax!

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aUVWXTKuS_l8&refer=us

Sept. 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. home-price appreciation will slow as interest rates rise next year, according to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the nation's two biggest purchasers of mortgage loans. The slackening may hurt economic growth.

Home prices rose more than twice as fast as wages over the past three years. Personal incomes rose 9.3 percent since 2001, and prices for new and existing homes surged 19 percent over the same period, government data show.

Homeowners ``should not expect double-digit price increases year after year,'' Frank Nothaft, chief economist at McLean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac, said in an interview. ``That's just not going to happen.''

Homes are the most valuable investment of many Americans, worth some $15.2 trillion. Slower appreciation may make homeowners less confident and eventually hurt spending, said Lyle E. Gramley, a former Federal Reserve governor and onetime chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association. Through mortgage refinancing, owners last year turned a record $138.1 billion of home equity into cash, helping them buy cars, dishwashers and other goods.

``If the average slows to 4 percent to 5 percent, there'd be some negative figures in some parts of the country, and the confidence of those people would be shaken,'' said Gramley, who is now senior economic adviser to Schwab Soundview Capital Markets in Washington.

more...

[54anickel]

8. Student Loan Subsidies Questioned

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-loan6sep06,1,6179898.story?coll=la-headlines-business

Students who need help paying college tuition bills this fall can get a federally subsidized loan that charges 3.37% interest — not a bad deal.

The deal can be even better for lenders. The government guarantees some of them a 9.5% interest rate for the student loans they issue, no matter what rates the lenders themselves are charging. The difference, and therefore the federal subsidy, can be 6 percentage points.

"Taxpayers are being ripped off," said Luke Swarthout, higher education associate with the U.S. Public Interest Research Group. "It is clear that no one is safeguarding the rules that are governing the student loan playing field."

Education advocates have been attacking the system for years, to no avail. Their cause could be helped by a new report that says the number of loans covered by the 9.5% subsidy is growing at a rapid clip as some lenders aggressively exploit what critics call a loophole in the law.

more...

[UpInArms]

9. Continental to Skip Pension Payment

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A60682-2004Sep3.html

Continental Airlines Inc., the fifth- largest U.S. carrier, said it will skip contributions to employee pension plans this year, taking advantage of a law enacted in April to conserve cash.

The move will help the company keep $1.5 billion in unrestricted cash in "these difficult and turbulent times," Houston- based Continental said in a written statement. The carrier said in a July filing that it planned to put $250 million in the plans and faced a minimum funding requirement of $17 million.

The U.S. law gave airlines, steelmakers and other companies the option to defer about $80 billion in pension funding in the next two years. Continental spokesman Rahsaan Johnson declined to comment on what the airline will do next year. The company's plans cover almost all of its 41,000 workers, he said.

"We kind of understand the economics of the situation," said Jim Moody, a spokesman for the Continental Air Line Pilots Association. "We wish the economics were better, but that's the airline industry."

...more...

[UpInArms]

10. How to Fix the Pension Mess

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/5915501/site/newsweek/

By law, pension plans are allowed to 'assume' that stock prices are rising, even when they aren't! (Don't ask me; I just write about this stuff.)

Sept. 13 issue - Oops, we've done it again—drilled a blast hole into the bedrock of workers' financial security. In the mid-1980s, a laissez-faire Congress let the savings-and-loan industry blow itself up, endangering the very existence of federal deposit insurance. The rescue cost taxpayers $200 billion. Now we're replaying that dangerous game with traditional lifetime pension plans—still enjoyed (and trusted) by some 45 million workers and retirees.

advertisement

Reckless investment incentives have joined with bad politics and fairy-tale accounting to endanger the safety of many plans and risk the solvency of federal pension insurance. Pensions are safe as long as the companies sponsoring them do well. But if trouble comes (think Polaroid, Bethlehem Steel or Eastern Airlines), your company might let the plan fail.

The federal Pension Benefit Guarantee Corp. picks up the pieces—only for pensions, not 401(k)s. Currently it insures part or all of the pensions owed to nearly 1 million workers and retirees in 3,200 failed plans. Single workers retiring this year at 65 can collect as much as $44,386 in benefits, with lesser amounts for early retirees. At 55, the maximum payout drops to $19,973, even if your company promised more. Any pension income exceeding the caps is usually lost.

The PBGC relies, for support, on insurance premiums paid by the companies that sponsor pension plans. It also takes over the assets of plans that fail. Several super-large plans collapsed in recent years, leaving fewer than usual assets to help pay the claims. Now United Airlines hopes to dump a record $6.4 billion in pension obligations on the PBGC, paving the way for Delta and US Airways to follow.

<snip>

But over several 15- and 20-year periods in the past century (not to mention many shorter periods, such as now), stocks underperformed. When that happens, prudent companies should step up their contributions, to keep plans whole. But—here's the crazy part—they don't always have to. By law, pension plans are allowed to "assume" that stock prices are rising even when they fall! (Don't ask me; I just write about this stuff.) So even when stocks dive, companies don't have to beef their plans up. As a result, some of them never recover.

...more...

[54anickel]

27. Nice! Great article. Remember that article posted a while back, that

stated there was a big concern of a tight labor market down the road because there won't be enough workers to replace the boomers retiring? HA! Who the hell is going to be able to afford to retire?

What is this quote in this article regarding Bush about anyway? Trying to say Bush isn't in bed with his corporate buddies on this? I'm thinking his proposals are being made with a "wink, wink".

Most workers have no clue that their "guaranteed" pension system rests on sand. President George W. Bush has proposed some smart fixes, but his business buddies don't want to play. Here are some of the danger points, and what could be done:

[54anickel]

11. Demand Is Flat but Beer Prices Are Up

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-beer6sep06,1,5660199.story?coll=la-headlines-business

NEW YORK — Demand for beer is weak and supplies are steady, so U.S. brewers are raising prices. It's enough to make Adam Smith roll over in his grave.

Although that counterintuitive formula may not make sense to classical economists, it's proving to be a winner for Anheuser-Busch Cos., Adolph Coors Co. and other brewers struggling to sell the ultimate carbohydrate drink to a generation of young people obsessed with all things low-carb.

With the summer beer-drinking season drawing to a close, the price hikes are helping the industry leaders weather a rough patch caused by more competition from the spirits industry as well as the popularity of low-carbohydrate diets.

Because of a relatively strong economy, consumers have largely swallowed the price hikes, and brewers have seen little effect on volume, beverage industry consultant Manny Goldman said.

more...

[UpInArms]

13. across the "pond"

http://www.reuters.co.uk/newsPackageArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=578577§ion=finance

Beer and drugs hit manufacturing output

LONDON (Reuters) - Factory output fell unexpectedly in July for the second month in a row -- the first back-to-back decline in nearly two years -- as the production of beer and pharmaceuticals plummeted.

Economists said this made it almost certain the Bank of England would leave interest rates on hold this week even though revisions to prior data meant that overall growth in the second quarter was probably higher than previously thought.

The Office for National Statistics said on Tuesday that manufacturing output, which accounts for 17 percent of the economy, fell by 0.2 percent in July against expectations of a 0.5 percent rise, bringing the annual rate down to just 0.9 percent.

Beer output fell at its sharpest pace in nearly 10 years after the surge in June as a result of the Euro 2004 soccer tournament while pharmaceutical factories reported tumbling output from very high levels in recent months.

...more...

[UpInArms]

12. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:10AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +5.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.8. Futures indications climb to their best levels of the morning, and thus signal a noticeably higher start to the day.

8:49AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +5.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.3. Expectations remain intact for a higher open as buyers come back after last week's relatively flat finish... Treasuries have also found some buying interest following last session's pullback off the mixed August employment report.

8:25AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +5.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.8. Still shaping up for a moderately higher open for the indices as investors are encouraged by the lower price of crude oil and several upside preannouncements... Trading volumes should also be higher today as more traders come to the market following Labor Day.

8:01AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +5.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.8. Futures trade suggests a higher open for the cash market following a drop in the price of crude oil (to the $43/bbl range), a CSCO upgrade by CIBC, and a raised outlook by CC, HOV, and STX.

ino.com

The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of last Friday's decline. The September NASDAQ 100 is trading above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1379.15 due to overnight strength. However, stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1359.73 would confirm that the rebound off August's low has come to an end. The September NASDAQ 100 was up 5.50 pt. at 1380.50 as of 5:47 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The September S&P 500 index was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates above the 62% retracement level of the June- August decline crossing at 1113.16. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish but overbought hinting that a short-term top might be near. Multiple closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1107.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If this month's rally continues, the 75% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 1125.67 is the next upside target. The September S&P 500 Index was up 4.00 pts. at 1118.40 as of 5:49 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[54anickel]

15. America's next shock may be debt, not oil

http://www.iht.com/bin/print.php?file=537365.html

snip>

The mere existence of huge debt need not be the source of panic. You and I may view debt as an economic input - we borrow so we can spend and invest, and hence, as politicians like to say, "grow the economy." But academic economists view it more as a byproduct. Debt is created when people, governments and companies spend money, trade and produce.

Viewed that way, the sharp rise in credit in recent years is not surprising or even, in and of itself, alarming.

"When interest rates are low, you'd expect people to pile on more debt per GDP because it's cheap," said J. Bradford DeLong, an economist at the University of California at Berkeley.

What's more, as anyone who has ever used a mortgage calculator knows, lower debt-service costs can make higher levels of debt seem eminently manageable. Here is a gigantic example: In 1997, when the total national debt stood at $5.4 trillion, Washington paid $356 billion in interest. In 2003, when the national debt grew to $6.8 trillion, the federal government's interest bill fell to $318 billion.

The environment of ultralow interest rates engineered by Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve chairman, thus sharply muted the impact of Washington's fiscal recklessness. But the economy's apparent reliance on credit to fuel everything from home buying to the military budget is troublesome.

If incomes and revenues fail to rise, stressed consumers may have a tough time keeping up with payments.

more...

[UpInArms]

16. 9:35 EST markets and open

Dow 10,332.25 +72.05 (+0.70%)
Nasdaq 1,863.08 +18.60 (+1.01%)
S&P 500 1,120.39 +6.76 (+0.61%)
10-Yr Bond 4.273% -0.020

YeeHaw!

[54anickel]

17. Deflation Delayed is not Deflation Denied!

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chuhran/chuhran090704.html

Sometimes you just have to sit back and watch. Since the correction that started in April for the precious metal sector, we've had an onslaught of credible arguments for both hyperinflation and deflation. There are so many global moving parts that it's really difficult to account for every factor that may come into play once one or more of the myriad of economic imbalances attempts to balance itself. Many analysts have used what appears to be a US-centric view in a somewhat static, two dimensional environment to put forth the "synthetic short" dollar thesis. This argument has merit in that environment, but fails to fully account for the forces that will come into play in a dynamic, global, multi-dimensional World. I can't begin to predict how humans all over the World will vote with their wallets once the dominos start to fall, but I do know that there's an age-old saying that "money goes where it's treated best."

My gut feeling is that will not be a force that moves the USDollar into strength over the long term.

Back at the end of 2003 when I wrote "Where Did All The Money Go" I asserted that much of the money supply expansion had found its way into the stock market fueling a cyclical bull within the secular bear. I still believe this was true; that's where the money was treated best. I also asserted that unless the Fed was able to reverse the topping pattern in the money supply that showed up in the latter half of 2003, we'd likely see a corresponding outflow from the equity markets. In fact, the Fed was able to resume the monetary inflation in early 2004 with the help of Japan's unprecedented intervention in the currency markets along with China's need to find a place to put their huge trade surpluses. Much of that foreign help has slowed as those countries seek diversification away from dollar denominated debt instruments.

Once again we find ourselves in much the same situation as we did last year; the broadest measure of the money supply (M3) appears to have stopped or at least slowed its expansion.

For an economy that has experienced annual monetary inflation in the neighborhood of $6-700 billion per year over the last several years, a 4 month M3 growth of only $30 billion certainly qualifies as flat. I believe we're once again backed into the corner as the Fed is desperately attempting to keep a monetary deflation from taking place. Unfortunately, this time it's different from last fall because we have an upward bias on interest rates with most consumers already tapped out of their extra "free" money from home equity loans or cash-out refis.

more...

[54anickel]

18. Barreling toward disaster

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2004/09/05/BUGKB8JI2G1.DTL&type=printable

Financial markets breathed a sigh of relief last week as the price of oil eased from the record $50-a-barrel level. Drivers will be next to rejoice when gas prices come down, as expected, once the Labor Day weekend ends.

But don't get too comfortable.

Experts say the stark reality is that oil and oil-derived products will inevitably shoot up again in price as demand exceeds production. And this will happen sooner than most people think.

"It's very scary," said Jamal Qureshi, a market analyst at PFC Energy, a Washington consulting firm. "People should be alarmed, and they should be demanding some government policy on this."

PFC this week will unveil the results of extensive forecasts for global oil production and consumption. The findings will be presented at the nonpartisan Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Qureshi said PFC's analysts ran projections for a variety of scenarios extending to 2020. By and large, they all pointed to a similar conclusion.

"By the time you get to about 2015," Qureshi said, "you reach the point where demand is far outstripping production, by several million barrels a day."

He added: "Prices will go through the roof, and this will absolutely kill economies in the process."

more...

[UpInArms]

19. Around Asia's Markets: Beware the quiet ones at the BOJ

http://www.iht.com/bin/print.php?file=537629.html

Hiroshi Watanabe, Japan's director of foreign exchange since July, ended a decade-old tradition of trying to persuade investors to buy or sell the yen when arriving for work at the Ministry of Finance in Tokyo.

Watanabe walks up the red-carpeted stairs leading to his office where more than a dozen reporters once jostled to hear Zembei Mizoguchi, his predecessor as deputy finance minister for international affairs.

Investors and traders in the $1.2 trillion-a-day foreign-exchange market interpreted the comments as hints on when the Bank of Japan, which in the first quarter sold a record ¥15.1 trillion, or $137.5 billion, would enter the market.

Since taking office, Watanabe has talked about the yen only twice at his Thursday briefings. His recalcitrance may allow him to catch traders off guard, prompting a sharper move in the currency, said Eisuke Sakakibara, who held the same post from 1997 to 1999.

"It's a subtle change, but an important one," said Sakakibara, who pioneered Japan's verbal strategy and was known as "Mr. Yen" because of his ability to move the currency. "His intervention will be more offensive than Mr. Mizoguchi's. What he hopes to achieve is surprise."

...more...

[UpInArms]

20. 10:10 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,318.16 +57.96 (+0.56%)
Nasdaq 1,858.17 +13.69 (+0.74%)
S&P 500 1,118.87 +5.24 (+0.47%)
10-Yr Bond 4.273% -0.020

10:00AM: Major indices stick near their highs set in the opening minutes as sector participation in the uptick remains impressive... Technology (computer hardware, software, disk drive, and networking), brokerage, homebuilding, airline, and telecom service have all moved noticeably higher and helped secure the indices' place in positive territory... The only true laggard at this point, however, is semiconductor...

The group (along with communications) has been downgraded by Lehman Brothers to Negative from Neutral, saying that it believes the semi downturn began in Q3 (Sept) with slow bookings in July/August... This follows Intel's Q3 (Sept) warning Thursday night...SOX - 0.2, NYSE Adv/Dec 2019/599, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1799/650

9:40AM: It's off to the races for buyers, as this morning's noticeable drop in the price of crude oil - to $43/bbl - has prompted renewed interest in equities... Other developments this morning have also worked in the favor of bulls: news that Hurricane Frances's damage was not as bad as most analysts expected, and several raised outlooks from notable companies like Circuit City (CC 13.78 +0.14), Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV 37.25 +2.02), Seagate Tech (STX 13.11 +1.24), and Yellow Roadway (YELL 43.60 +1.21)...

Right now, every industry group has taken flight, with the lone exception being energy (due to the price decline in crude oil)...

[UpInArms]

21. Planned U.S. job cuts up again

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20040907.wjobs0907/BNStory/Business/

Planned U.S. job cuts rose 6.6 per cent in August, marking the second increase in as many months as employers remain wary over the fragile state of the current economic recovery, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said Tuesday.

The increase put the expected number of corporate job cuts at 69,572 for the month, the highest level since February's planned 77,250 reductions.

In its monthly report, however, the New York-based firm also noted that the proposed cuts for the month were largely offset by announced plans to hire 132,105 new workers in the weeks and months ahead.

The report said the biggest additions in terms of job creation in coming months will likely come in the retail sector, as it gears up for the all- important holiday selling season.

...more detail at link...

[54anickel]

26. Wonderful job prospects in those announced plans to hire. n/t

[UpInArms]

22. Job searches taking longer for senior executives too, survey finds

http://www.canada.com/national/nationalpost/news/story.html?id=50f09c9b-e66f-4321-9d00-3e5826a1eea2

CHICAGO (AP) - Prolonged job hunting and hiring isn't just the purview of worker bees. Even senior- level executives are taking longer these days to land new gigs, according to labour research firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc.

The average job search period was 4.4 months in the second quarter, marking an unprecedented seven consecutive quarters in which it took senior managers and executives more than four months to find a job, the Chicago-based company said.

How come?

Mainly, it's because of deeper background checks into potential candidates, as security concerns and new corporate governance requirements mandate greater scrutiny. Plus, it can cost $40,000 US or more to replace an executive, making a failed hire a financially disastrous occurrence.

...more...

[UpInArms]

23. 10:38 EST numbers and blather (guess it didn't like the Challenger report)

Dow 10,309.01 +48.81 (+0.48%)
Nasdaq 1,854.83 +10.35 (+0.56%)
S&P 500 1,118.06 +4.43 (+0.40%)
10-Yr Bond 4.271% -0.022

10:30AM: The stock market remains awash in buyers with the indices firmly in the green... Advancers favor decliners by more than a 2-to-1 margin at the NYSE and Nasdaq, and up volume leads down volume by a nearly 3-to-1 margin... Last week's unexciting trade - which left the indices basically unchanged - has given investors more reason to pick up equities with companies in diverse industries such as homebuilding (HOV), storage (STX), and trucking (YELL) have increased guidance... NYSE Adv/Dec 2053/802, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1804/868

[UpInArms]

24. Global oil crisis lurking

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0905oilfuture05.html

WASHINGTON - With oil prices receding from this summer's records, motorists and airline stockholders are hoping for relief from high gasoline and jet fuel bills.

But many energy experts predict that not only won't the price decline last long, but Americans soon will have to say goodbye forever to plentiful, cheap oil.

With demand for fuel growing rapidly in China, India and other developing nations, "the world is entering a period of runaway growth in demand for fossil fuels," said Matthew Simmons, founder of Simmons & Co. International Ltd.

At the same time, growth in the supply of the most desired fossil fuel - oil - is slowing. No major oil fields have been discovered in nearly three decades. And despite record revenues, oil companies are barely increasing their production capacity.

The result in coming years: fuel prices far higher than anything seen so far.

For oil companies, "it's the end of growth - that's what peaking is all about," said Simmons, whose Houston-based independent investment bank specializes in the oil industry.

...more...

[UpInArms]

25. Congressional Analysts See Worse Long-Term Deficit

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=6168965

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The federal budget deficit will balloon to $2.29 trillion over the next decade, a worse outlook than previously forecast according to a new report by congressional analysts, a congressional source with knowledge of the numbers said on Tuesday.

The forecast from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office, which is likely to stir the election-year debate about President Bush's economic policies, compares to the $2.01 trillion outlook for 2005-2014 it provided in March for the shortfall under current economic policies.

<snip>

That compares to the White House's latest deficit forecast of $445 billion for this year. The White House no longer provides a 10-year deficit forecast.

...a bit more at link...

[UpInArms]

29. Dollar Dips on Profit-Taking

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/breaking/breakingnewsarticle.asp?feed=OBR&Date=20040907&ID=3954243

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar slipped against the euro and yen on Tuesday on profit-taking after steep U.S. jobs-related gains last week, with investors turning cautious ahead of a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on Wednesday.

U.S. jobs data on Friday supported expectations the Fed would raise interest rates by 25 basis points later this month to 1.75 percent and sent the dollar 1 percent higher against the major currencies. But the numbers failed to provide a sustained boost for the dollar, with markets already pricing in a quarter-point rate hike this month.

``We're seeing a bit of a rebound in other currencies because of some profit- taking on the dollar,'' said John McCarthy, director of foreign exchange at ING Capital Markets in New York.

``We kind of overreacted on Friday, aggressively buying dollars. But the market has calmed down since then and we seem to be stuck in relatively defined trading ranges,'' he added.

<snip>

Greenspan's testimony on Wednesday before the House Budget Committee is expected to reiterate the Fed's stance that interest rates will have to rise at a moderate pace. Analysts question whether this will be enough to power the dollar higher again.

...more...

[loudsue]

30. Tell me again WHY the market is going UP???

This is mind-numbing!! Is it because corporations are cutting more jobs????

:kick::kick::kick:

[UpInArms]

31. 12:04 EST numbers and blather (excuses)

Dow 10,335.63 +75.43 (+0.74%)
Nasdaq 1,862.13 +17.65 (+0.96%)
S&P 500 1,120.64 +7.01 (+0.63%)
10-Yr Bond 4.265% -0.028

12:00PM: Stock market has been in rally- mode this morning - bolstered by a 2.5% decline in the price of crude oil and a number of upward guidance revisions... Circuit City (CC 13.65 +0.01), Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV 37.64 +2.41), Seagate Tech (STX 12.54 +0.67), and Yellow Roadway (YELL 43.35 +0.96) all boosted their numbers this morning and helped alleviate worries about the Q3 (Sept) reporting season in October... As a result, homebuilding, storage, and trucking have been some of the strongest groups this morning, and have found support in brokerage, networking, casino, disk drive, and auto...

The only areas, in fact, to buck the positive trend have been energy and semiconductor... The latter has stumbled on a Lehman Brothers downgrade to Negative from Neutral, which brings to light many of the concerns associated with Intel's (INTC 20.01 -0.04) reduced Q3 (Sept) revenues outlook last Thursday...

As for energy, it has taken a hit off the noticeable drop in the price of crude oil (following OPEC President Purnomo Yusgiantoro's statement that the world has an oversupply of about 1.5 mln barrels of oil per day) and a Deutsche Bank downgrade of ChevronTexaco (CVX 98.98 -0.79) to Hold from Buy...

dollar

Last trade 89.28 Change -0.25 (-0.28%)

Last tick: 2004-09-07 11:34:19 ET
30-min delayed quote

[UpInArms]

32. Greenspan to Bolster Rate Hike View (crystal ball gazing?)

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6169795

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will cement forecasts for higher U.S. interest rates when he speaks on Wednesday after August jobs data backed his view that growth is back on solid ground, economists said.

Greenspan testifies on the economic outlook to the House of Representatives Budget Committee at 10:30 a.m. (1430 GMT) in his only slated public appearance before the U.S. central bank's September 21 policy meeting, which is expected to weigh further rate hikes.

Analysts polled by Reuters on Friday were unanimous in forecasting a quarter percentage point rise that would take U.S. rates to 1.75 percent, as the Fed sticks to a campaign of gradual increases amid a widening economic expansion.

"He will indicate that the economy is still on a solid growth track and that the Fed will continue in a measured way to move interest rates up," said David Jones, head of consulting group DMJ Advisors.

<snip>

Sharp prices rises earlier in the year alarmed some Fed policymakers. But recent news has been more encouraging with the core measure of inflation faced by consumers, the PCE price index and one of the Fed's favorite price pressure measures, running at 1.5 percent year-over-year in July.

Greenspan will probably avoid speaking too emphatically of the recovery in order to preserve room for policy maneuver and because he does not want long-term market interest rates to rise too quickly in anticipation of future Fed action.

This could create unwelcome headwinds for the expansion, for example by undermining mortgage refinancing activity, which has been an important support for consumer spending despite the economy's at times disappointing record in creating new jobs.

...more...

[UpInArms]

33. 1:01 EST numbers and blather (Whee!!!)

Dow 10,357.31 +97.11 (+0.95%)
Nasdaq 1,864.94 +20.46 (+1.11%)
S&P 500 1,123.50 +9.87 (+0.89%)
10-Yr Bond 4.261% -0.032

12:55PM: Little change in the overall trading pattern as the indices sit near their best levels of the session... Today's action has been a respite from the general ennui that has consumed the market over the past week... Economic data have been sparse today, but corporate announcements have been fairly plentiful with several companies raising guidance... Briefing.com expects to hear more of that in the weeks to come, particularly from blue chip companies...

Tech continues to contend with problems related to slowing end market demand which could limit EPS growth in the quarters to come, but more diversified companies should continue to see healthy top and bottom-line expansion...NYSE Adv/Dec 2241/935, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1857/1070

12:25PM: Equities inch slightly higher as the Nasdaq comes to close to its highs of the day... Market internals remain bullish and sector participation continues to be fairly uniform; however, volume remains very much a missing piece of the puzzle... Volume has picked up following last week's paltry totals, but it has yet to reach daily averages... Totals should continue to lag yearly norms as more traders return from vacation and gear up for the fall trading season...

The fall of September 11th, though, on this Saturday could keep more investors on edge and lead to more cautious trading activity later on in the week...NYSE Adv/Dec 2227/906, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1891/999

[UpInArms]

34. 2:09 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,334.14 +73.94 (+0.72%)
Nasdaq 1,859.95 +15.47 (+0.84%)
S&P 500 1,120.71 +7.08 (+0.64%)
10-Yr Bond 4.257% -0.036

2:00PM: Stocks dip off their highs but continue to retain the majority of their gains... Today's action mirrors the activity seen in the overseas indices, although gains (Tokyo's Nikkei +%, France's CAC Index +0.3%) are much more robust in the US... In Europe and Asia, investors certainly took comfort in the fall in the price of crude oil - a trend the market has seen for much of the past couple of weeks...

It is unlikely crude oil will continue to slide noticeably further - given persistent geopolitical turmoil and supply concerns - but its tapering off is being welcomed by the market, particularly in the absence of influential news items...NYSE Adv/Dec 2383/855, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1957/1043

1:30PM: After trading at the top of the day's range for the past two hours, the market stages a minor breakout and sets new session highs in the process... Financial, telecom, and industrial have all spearheaded the advance with their gains of 1% or more... Brokerage remains one of the biggest winners of the day with its +2.7% gains... Elsewhere, semiconductor has retraced most of its losses although it still remains on the defensive... The improved posturing has contributed to the Nasdaq's new stance - above the 1857/1860 resistance area...

The next area to the upside sits at 1866/1869 - as identified by Briefing.com's The Technical Take...SOX -0.2, NYSE Adv/Dec 2371/834, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1940/1019

dollar

Last trade 89.38 Change -0.15 (-0.17%)

Last tick: 2004-09-07 13:38:21 ET
30-min delayed quote

[54anickel]

35. 3:23 update

Dow 10,315.58 +55.38 (+0.54%)
Nasdaq 1,851.38 +6.90 (+0.37%)
S&P 500 1,118.42 +4.79 (+0.43%)
10-yr Bond 4.246% -0.047
30-yr Bond 5.012% -0.049
NYSE Volume 991,314,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,102,452,000


3:00PM: Gains continue to disappear off the boards as traders take profits from the day's upswing... The higher price of crude oil, which is now hovering around $43.28/bbl, has prompted a knee-jerk sell response in equities as traders continue to take most of their cues from oil... The Nasdaq itself has fallen through the 1866/1869 area (Aug 27 high/Friday's high/50 day exponential moving average) although it has held near an intraday support at 1850/1848... Semiconductor has continued to head south, and now the biotech group is negative for the session...SOX -1.4, NYSE Adv/Dec 2286/984, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1765/1294
2:35PM: Equities drift somewhat lower in the past half hour, but have since come off their worst levels... Semiconductor is, once again, the weakest link of the day - posting losses of 0.9% now... This has tugged the Nasdaq down to its levels around 11 ET and also curbed the S&P 500's advance... Most of its components are still higher for the session, but consumer stable and drug have reversed into negative territory... Consumer staple has shown relative weakness all day as investors have opted for more growth-oriented (and economically-sensitive) names...NYSE Adv/Dec 2361/902, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1863/1161

2:00PM: Stocks dip off their highs but continue to retain the majority of their gains... Today's action mirrors the activity seen in the overseas indices, although gains (Tokyo's Nikkei +0.5%, France's CAC Index +0.3%) are much more robust in the US... In Europe and Asia, investors certainly took comfort in the fall in the price of crude oil - a trend the market has seen for much of the past couple of weeks...
It is unlikely crude oil will continue to slide noticeably further - given persistent geopolitical turmoil and supply concerns - but its tapering off is being welcomed by the market, particularly in the absence of influential news items...NYSE Adv/Dec 2383/855, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1957/1043

1:30PM : After trading at the top of the day's range for the past two hours, the market stages a minor breakout and sets new session highs in the process... Financial, telecom, and industrial have all spearheaded the advance with their gains of 1% or more... Brokerage remains one of the biggest winners of the day with its +2.7% gains... Elsewhere, semiconductor has retraced most of its losses although it still remains on the defensive... The improved posturing has contributed to the Nasdaq's new stance - above the 1857/1860 resistance area...

The next area to the upside sits at 1866/1869 - as identified by Briefing.com's The Technical Take...SOX -0.2, NYSE Adv/Dec 2371/834, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1940/1019


Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 2293 (66%) 1759 (54%)
Declines 982 (28%) 1317 (40%)
Unchanged 158 (4%) 153 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 643 (68%) 670 (63%)
Down Vol* 279 (29%) 376 (35%)
Unch. Vol* 13 (1%) 17 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 198 92
New Lo's 13 40

[54anickel]

36. Wall Street rallies on oil and overseas

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/040907/829e36e62e917783d604d9901d720448_1.html

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - Motivated by a sharp drop in oil prices and bullish economic news from Japan and Germany, investors returned from
the long holiday weekend in a buying mood Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI - News) was last up 47 points, or 0.5 percent, to 10,306 in afternoon action though well off its 10,363 intraday high. We have a target for the close?

snip>

"Heading into the holiday weekend, many put themselves in very defensive positions should something bad happen," said Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald. "Now that we're through the Republican National Convention, I think you just have a little relief pop -- taking off that hedge, maybe putting a lit bit of capital to work after, especially, some of the techs were down."

Volumes remained light but were picking up after one of the slowest trading weeks of the year.

snip>

Japan on Monday released a quarterly survey showing capital spending by Japanese companies rose 10.7 percent from April to June from a year earlier, raising hopes that gross domestic product growth will be revised upward later in the week. Japan's Nikkei Average has surged 2.5 percent over the last two sessions since the number was released. See Asia Markets.

"That little piece of data gave tech a nice little boost this morning, which relieved a lot of the pressure we were seeing on Friday that was mainly focused on the tech sector," Pado said.

German industrial production, meanwhile, came in at 1.6 percent - double market forecasts for a 0.8 percent rise. See Europe Markets

more...

[54anickel]

37. Closing time

Dow 10,341.16 +80.96 (+0.79%)
Nasdaq 1,858.56 +14.08 (+0.76%)
S&P 500 1,121.30 +7.67 (+0.69%)
10-yr Bond 4.246% -0.047
30-yr Bond 5.012% -0.049
NYSE Volume 1,213,754,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,328,024,000

Close Dow +80.96 at 10341.16, S&P +7.67 at 1121.30, Nasdaq +14.08 at 1858.56: The market had trouble holding to one true course today, but the end result was still solid gains across the averages... A decline in the price of crude oil and a number of upside earnings announcements set the stage for today's upswing, and kept stocks well bid despite a few afternoon pullbacks on the session's light volume...
Circuit City (CC 13.69 +0.05), Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV 38.48 +3.25), Seagate Technology (STX 12.30 +0.43), and Yellow Roadway (YELL 43.77 +1.38) either turned in strong earnings reports or issued better than expected guidance - the end result having a calming effect on worries about the upcoming earnings season... Trucking, storage, homebuilding, and consumer electronics emerged as some of the strongest groups, and were joined by networking, software, internet, financial (especially brokerage, consumer finance, and life insurance), airline, cyclical, and casino... The only areas, in fact, that were hit by selling were semiconductor and energy...

The latter stumbled off the 2% dip in crude oil to $43.31/bbl (OPEC's President was out earlier today saying that politics were the reason for high oil prices, not supply - which he estimates exceeds demand by 1.5 mln barrels a day), whereas the former slumped off a Lehman Brothers downgrade to Negative from Neutral... The firm said it believes that the semi downturn began in Q3 (Sept) with slow bookings in July/August, which brought to mind Intel's (INTC 19.89 -0.16) Q3 warning last Thursday...SOX -1.1, NYSE Adv/Dec 2392/931, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1918/1185

3:25PM : Indices edge a bit higher in the afternoon's choppy trade... Although the market has come nowhere close to drifting into negative territory, the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 have vacillated in a range of 50, 13, and 6 points, respectively... Volume has simply been light for the day, and left the indices vulnerable to wide swings... Still, a positive bias has prevailed (as demonstrated by the bullish breadth figures) as buyers have been resilient in their efforts...

Crude oil that is still lower for the day, and a number of encouraging earnings pronouncements (CC, HOV, STX, and YELL), have paved the way for the up day...NYSE Adv/Dec 2257/1011, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1757/1320

3:00PM : Gains continue to disappear off the boards as traders take profits from the day's upswing... The higher price of crude oil, which is now hovering around $43.28/bbl, has prompted a knee-jerk sell response in equities as traders continue to take most of their cues from oil... The Nasdaq itself has fallen through the 1866/1869 area (Aug 27 high/Friday's high/50 day exponential moving average) although it has held near an intraday support at 1850/1848... Semiconductor has continued to head south, and now the biotech group is negative for the session...SOX -1.4, NYSE Adv/Dec 2286/984, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1765/1294


Have a great night everyone! :hi: