China is in for a hard landing: Xie

[dArKeR]

By Lisa Wang
STAFF REPORTER
Friday, Aug 13, 2004,Page 1

China's economy is likely to experience a hard landing, as the nation's property sector is close to bursting due to excessive investment over the past years, a Morgan Stanley economist said in Taipei yesterday.

The remarks came as Beijing tightens its grip on credit in an attempt to steer China's overheated economy to a soft landing.

"The development of China's property market is the determining factor for a hard landing or a soft landing, rather than the government's policies," Andy Xie (???), a Morgan Stanley economist with a specialty in Chinese economy, said at a seminar on regional industrial development.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2004/08/13/2003198506

[bpilgrim]

1. 'China's property market' - sounds like a founding father ;->

so what pray tell will hold back their phenomenal growth since all jobs are heading their way?

PEAK OIL

peace

[GainesT1958]

2. Hmmm...well, much the same thing happened to Japan...

And triggered an economic slowdown there from which they're only now starting to emerge.

China may not yet have the DEPTH of economythat Japan had then, but they have a very "broad' economy, and they play off of demand from, principally, two markets: the U.S. (70%) and the remainder of the Pacific Rim (25%). What may a property melt-down cause OUR markets to do in reaction?

Ohhhh boy...:scared:

B-)

[ender]

5. you're missing a huge market -

the chinese - internal market.

[ASaneGuy]

3. So this is what one of the 10,000 economists said.

Just 2 cents, I guess. They can't even figure out whether we
have a recovery or not.

[newyawker99]

7. Hi ASaneGuy!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Nambe]

4. The Chinese are greatful for the take-off IMO.

One of many painful but rewarding advantages of a strong arm government is their ability to control such landings. It is not a free market system. We do a lot of business with two Chinese companies and communicate with them allot about everything under the moon. They see us in the middle of a hard landing with blood on the runway. I find it ironic to here anybody talk about their "landing".

[physioex]

6. Hah....

>> us in the middle of a hard landing with blood

Buddy we already landed and we landed hard...The job market out here looks pretty bad from my perspective...