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Venezuela's Chavez Would Clinch Recall Victory-Poll (reuters)

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pescao Donating Member (716 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 09:06 AM
Original message
Venezuela's Chavez Would Clinch Recall Victory-Poll (reuters)
check to see how NO-ONE has picked up this story...

Venezuela's Chavez Would Clinch Recall Victory-Poll
Fri Apr 23, 2004 04:56 PM ET

By Patrick Markey

CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez would narrowly win a recall vote if it were held now because of a divided opposition and low turnout by disillusioned voters, according to a poll released on Friday.

Thirty-five percent of registered voters backed Chavez while 31 percent would vote against him, said local pollsters Alfredo Keller & Associates which conducted the survey in late March.

Another 34 percent of those questioned opposed Chavez but were likely to abstain from voting in any referendum because they were frightened or had lost faith in the opposition.

"If there was a referendum at this time Chavez would win," the firm's president Alfredo Keller told reporters. "The opposition certainly has the majority, but that majority is fractured in two blocks."

Polls up until now had suggested Chavez would lose the referendum.

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bemildred Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 09:27 AM
Response to Original message
1. Bullshit.
Chavez would kick their asses six ways from Sunday.
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Hornito Donating Member (460 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 09:52 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. You got that right!
Interesting isn't it?, that the people most behind trying to overthrow Chavez, are oil, media, and corporate barons, ...the same group that HAS "overthrown" our government. Anything from the major media in Venezuela, must be considered tainted. They've been lying about Chavez from the git go, and haven't stopped. In fact, they are the ones most responsible for the last attempted coup. Much of the Venezuelan media is guilty of treason. Same thing here. Someday, some way, they must be forced to pay for their crimes, and the damage they have done to our nation.
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cosmicaug Donating Member (676 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 12:09 PM
Response to Reply #1
Edited on Sat Apr-24-04 12:12 PM by cosmicaug
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Zhade Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 02:14 PM
Response to Reply #13
17. Oh, but "Narco News isn't credible".
I actually read a post here on DU (the poster's name escapes me) to that effect. One of the more laughable moments here on the ol' DU!

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Judi Lynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 10:02 AM
Response to Original message
3. You're right. Reuters's the only organization which covered this poll
Edited on Sat Apr-24-04 10:07 AM by JudiLyn
(at least the only one available here).

Also noticed from the wording of some of the material, it must be KILLILNG the polling company, Alfredo Keller and Associates of Caracas to be getting these results. They sound really biased!

This is fascinating. If this trend continues, and the "opposition" continues to fragment, it may be necessary to bribe some more officials through NED, USAID, etc. to get them back on board with Bush's State Department, working away at that next surprise coup!

Not even one word of the ongoing "Cubanization" of Venezuela. Ha ha ha!

I just found this interesting little section in an interview with a reporter from the New York Times, Juan Forero, done some time ago. It concerns the tiny radio stations in Venezuela which offer the only alternative to the huge wash of anti-Chavez propaganda ongoing 24/7:
The community radio stations had a big role. While the private media blacked out what was going on after the coup, they were broadcasting you know, soap operas and stuff like that, the neighborhood radio stations were the ones that were reporting what was happening, so many people in the barrios knew that Chavez had been spirited away, and they also knew that there was an effort to re-install him, and of course that led thousands of people to come in from the hills and take part in a very important uprising that in turn led to Chavez being re-instated.

One of the reasons why the government hates the private media, particularly the television stations, is because they're not really just supportive of the opposition here; they are part of the opposition. They're a radical element within the opposition. I mean they go to the meetings, they have decision-making powers and so forth, and during the coup, they had a big role in basically his ouster. Chavez certainly has in the past threatened that he would shut down stations and jail media executives, but-- that's rhetoric. I think that Chavez may simply be trying to ignore the opposition. He's got a lot of other people who support him here, and he's decided to just try to focus on winning hearts and minds in that sector of the population.

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pescao Donating Member (716 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 10:56 AM
Response to Reply #3
7. not even that...
no newspapers (eg US local) have carried the story, sometimes there are pages on google with lists of the same headline - not this time.

fascinating interview with propaganist no1 juan forero - maybe a change of heart?! we had a very good screening of 'revolution' here in london a couple of days ago with the hands off venezuela campaign - next up: a bolivarian tv station!

>JUAN FORERO: Well, some of the money does come from the government. These are very simple, even primitive transmitters that are set up in people's homes or in the lobby of a housing complex. So it doesn't take a lot of money to get one of these things started up, and in fact, probably one of the biggest obstacles was just getting a license. In the past, these places were shut down by the government, but under the Chavez government, they want these places to really flourish, and one of the things that they've done is they have enacted a law that facilitates licenses to these places quite easily. And now, Chavez has announced that there will be new funding this year for a number of these radio stations.

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Judi Lynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 11:40 AM
Response to Reply #7
10. Thanks for the news there is a site like ""
Really good to learn about this!

HERE'S where I recognize having heard Juan Forero's name before. I had stashed this article and just relocated it:
Also last April, New York Times reporter Juan Forero reported that President Chvez had resigned when, in fact, Chvez had been kidnapped at gunpoint. Forero did not source his knowingly false claim. Forero, on April 13, wrote a puff piece on dictator-for-a-day Pedro Carmona installed by a military coup as Carmona disbanded Congress, the Supreme Court, the Constitution and sent his shocktroops house to house in a round-up of political leaders in which sixty supporters of Chvez were assassinated. Later that day, after the Venezuelan masses took back their country block by block, Carmona fled the national palace and Chvez, the elected president, was restored to office.

* Forero who, Narco News reported in 2001, allowed US Embassy officials to monitor his interviews with mercenary pilots in Colombia, without disclosing that fact in his article was caught again last month in his unethical pro-coup activities in Venezuela. Narco News Associate Publisher Dan Feder revealed that Forero and LA Times reporter T. Christian Miller had written essentially the same story, interviewing the same two shopkeepers in a wealthy suburb of Caracas, and the same academic expert in a story meant to convince readers that a general strike was occurring in Venezuela. The LA Times Readers Representative later revealed that Forero and Miller interviewed the shopkeepers together. Neither disclosed that fact.

* In many ways, it has been the credibility problem posed by Forero that led to Toros hiring last November by the Times, and the importation of Times Mexico Bureau Chief Ginger Thompson to Venezuela last month.
As you know, Forero's not their only propaganda mill, either. Remember Fracisco Toro? He's mentioned in this article, too:
Toros obsessive anti-Chavez position in Venezuela was publicly known after last Aprils coup when he began sending emails to Narco News and other journalists who he placed on his own mailing list attacking Venezuelan President Hugo Chvez. That the Times hired him in the first place was a violation of the Times own claims to objective and disinterested reporting. But regarding Venezuela, it was not the first.
Toros resignation the text of his letter sent to the Times management last night appears below - is the latest in a long series of missteps and misdeeds by the New York Times and its reporters regarding the New York newspapers one-sided and inaccurate Venezuela coverage:
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Vladimir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 11:43 AM
Response to Reply #3
11. Corret me if I'm wrong
but does the opposition not have to defeat Chavez by the same majority by which he won the election for the recall to occur? So this is not a narrow lead, its a massive margin being reported...
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Judi Lynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 11:57 AM
Response to Reply #11
12. I'm hazey about the numbers needed for the recall to pass.
Hugo Chavez won in a landslide with 56% of the voters. Good edge, for sure.

Hope someone can offer some clarification on this.
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Vladimir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 12:24 PM
Response to Reply #12
15. Yes indeed
So assuming I am right (always a dangerous move :)) and they need 56%, they are polling at 47%. That's a very large lead as things stand, and I am giving the benefit of the doubt to the poll here.

It seems to me a lot more likely that this is an advance attempt to spin an opposition defeat as being down to harrased voters. As I (and others) have been saying for months now...
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 10:16 AM
Response to Original message
4. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
Judi Lynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 10:23 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. No. n/t
Edited on Sat Apr-24-04 10:30 AM by JudiLyn
On edit:

Maybe you should break down and read the article.
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 10:55 AM
Response to Reply #5
6. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
pescao Donating Member (716 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 11:03 AM
Response to Reply #6
8. he's not blocking anything
the elections council decided that all the petition signatures in the same handwriting, and the signature forms that were filled in with the same handwriting, and some more, must be VALIDATED - ie the people who are supposed to have signed will have a chance to say whether they are on the list correctly or not. this is totally within the 'rules' governing this election, however the opposition are obviously terrified that, upon inspection, vast numbers of these dodgy signatures will prove to be fraudulant. they couch it up that it's a "logstically impossible" to validate them, but they've not given any reasons why...
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IndianaGreen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 11:05 AM
Response to Reply #6
9. You are repeating debunked rightwing propaganda
The following article provides a point by point rebuttal of all of Bush's talking points about Venezuela that now seemed to have been adopted by the DLC and the presumptive Democratic nominee:

Published on Friday, March 26, 2004 by
Why John Kerry Must Retract his Position on Venezuela

Kerry urges President Chavez to allow the recall referendum against his mandate to occur. The reality is that the President has no legal means, to either impede or permit a recall referendum. It can only be achieved if those requesting the referendum collect the number of valid signatures required by the regulations.

The Senator states that, "the international community cannot permit President Chvez to subvert this process, as he has tried to do up until now." Nevertheless, Kerry does not specify how the President has tried to subvert this process. Kerry conveniently omits the fact that it was President Chvez who proposed to include the possibility of these referenda in the new Constitution that was drafted by a Constitutional Assembly elected by popular vote. Chvez has called for a review of signatures collected by the opposition because, as per numerous credible reports, there appears to have been substantial fraud committed during the signature drive. What is so terrible about denouncing fraud and calling for an investigation of hundreds of thousands of petitions filled out by the same handwriting? Kerry surely would expect the same type of investigation to occur if there were evidence of fraud in any electoral process he was a part of.

As it stands, those whose signatures appear on petitions that were filled out by the same handwriting will soon have the chance to confirm their identity and intention to sign the petition requesting a recall referendum. It is the opposition that has opposed this process. Chvez has repeatedly stated that he will respect whatever decision is made by the nation's electoral authorities regarding a referendum.
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keep_left Donating Member (158 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 12:19 PM
Response to Reply #5
14. Freeper disrupter! n/t
Edited on Sat Apr-24-04 12:23 PM by keep_left
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Devils Advocate NZ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 02:08 PM
Response to Original message
16. Evidence that this poll is rigged:
Edited on Sat Apr-24-04 02:09 PM by Devils Advocate NZ
Who do you think said this:

Chvez has two agendas to face a revoking vote. First, he is to try to prevent the referendum from being convened. However, in the event that the election is held, he is determined to stop the majority of people that are opposed to him from becoming an electoral majority and revoking his mandate. These are his two agendas, and he is implementing them simultaneously. Obviously, we will continue to see Chvez attacking polling firms in Venezuela. That is his strategy and his way of being -to face anyone trying to oppose to his will or lust for power. Polling companies are not to be blamed. Any survey is a snapshot, and you cannot blame a snapshot for the image it shows. In this case, such snapshot is showing the reality of the country.{/i]

Here is the intro to the article that this is from:

Alfredo Keller, believes that any time President Hugo Chvez lashes at the polling companies he is admitting that he is getting unfavorable results in surveys. However, beyond percentages and figures, Keller urged the Venezuelan opposition groups to embrace an electoral preparation if they want to defeat Chvez in a recall referendum to terminate his mandate.

So, the the company that got this latest poll result is run by a man (Alfredo Keller) who believes that Chavez has a lust for power.

Oh, and where do you think I got this article?!

Surprise, surprise, surprise!

And one final snippet:

The commercial media correspondents rarely cite the source of their polls. So this reporter contacted them, and most of the reporters offered only the names of two Venezuelan companies Datanalisis and Keller and Associates.

An investigation into the operations of these two Venezuelan polling firms and their relationships with correspondents reveals that, by any fair measure, it is irresponsible for correspondents to cite the two firms polls without also mentioning that the two firms are headed by virulently anti-Chavez figures who frequently use polling samples that are unrepresentative of the overall Venezuelan population. ionID=45
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Guy Whitey Corngood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 03:05 PM
Response to Original message
18. I wonder if this is one of the many reasons why he's so "hated".

CARACAS, April 21, 2004 ( Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez Frias has announced that the cultivation of genetically modified crops will be prohibited on Venezuelan soil, possibly establishing the most sweeping restrictions on transgenic crops in the Western Hemisphere. Though full details of the administrations policy on genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are still forthcoming, the statement by President Chavez will lead most immediately to the cancellation of a contract that Venezuela had negotiated with the U.S.-based Monsanto Corporation.]

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0rganism Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-24-04 05:58 PM
Response to Reply #18
19. Yep, when you go up against Monsanto you're on thin ice over deep water
Oppress the masses? That's okay. Organize death squads to silence the opposition? *shrug* We can live with that. Even what Chavez tried to do, nationalizing the natural resources, is potentially workable, as long as exports continue on schedule.

But you don't mess with Monsanto and its GMOs, no way. That's hallowed ground, that's entering our sacred city. That's like starting up a beef farm in Calcutta.
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