STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday, August 18, 2011

[Pale Blue Dot]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday, August 18, 2011

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 17, 2011

Dow 11,410.21 +4.28 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq 2,511.48 -11.97 (-0.48%)
S&P 500 1,193.88 +1.12 (+0.09%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.09 -0.08 (-3.78%)
30-Year Bond 3.47 -0.10 (-2.86%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren
Dishonorable Mention: former House majority leader, Tom DeLay

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 12

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[Pale Blue Dot]

1. Today's Reports

Aug 18 08:30 Initial Claims 08/13 400K 400K 395K
Aug 18 08:30 Continuing Claims 08/6 3700K 3698K 3688K
Aug 18 08:30 CPI Jul 0.2% 0.2% -0.2%
Aug 18 08:30 Core CPI Jul 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
Aug 18 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jul 4.70M 4.87M 4.77M
Aug 18 10:00 Philadelphia Fed Aug 0.0 1.0 3.20
Aug 18 10:00 Leading Indicators Jul 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%

Read more: http://www.briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2011/08/15-19/#ixzz1VNikGfqJ

Lots of things that could end or extend today's mini-panic.

[Pale Blue Dot]

9. Initial claims at 408K, slightly higher than "expected"

That won't help.

[tclambert]

56. Briefing.com says under 410K is in "our Recovery Zone"

"Initial claims level fell below the upper bound (410,000) of our "Recovery Zone." If claims remain at or below this level, we expect payrolls to grow by more than the 100,000 jobs needed per month to support normal labor force growth." from http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Calendars/Economic/Releases/claims.htm

"At this level, payroll gains should exceed the 100,000 necessary to support normal labor force growth and maintain a stable unemployment rate."

So they seem to think this is just barely on the good side of the line. But continuing claims went up. I would think that carries more weight.

[Pale Blue Dot]

10. CPI up 0.5% - much higher than expected

Although I'm sure that some solace will be taken in that the "Core" CPI (minus all of the important things we spend money on daily) was only 0.2%.

[Po_d Mainiac]

13. "Transitory" my ass n/t

[Pale Blue Dot]

16. More Jobless Stagflation: CPI +0.5% On Expectations Of 0.2%, Jobless Claims Back Comfortably In +400

ollowing yesterday's upside surprise in the PPI, it was only logical that CPI would come higher than expected. However, printing at a 0.7% swing M/M, or the highest in years, was not expected. Broad CPI came at 0.5% in July after dropping -0.2% in June, or 3.6% Y/Y. This was far more than consensus which expected 0.2%. Core CPI however was in line with expectations at 0.2%. The reason for the surge? Gas, food and clothes. "The gasoline index rebounded from previous declines and rose sharply in July, accounting for about half of the seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index. The food at home index accelerated in July and also contributed to the increase, as dairy and fruit indexes posted notable increases and five of the six major grocery store food groups rose...The apparel index continued to rise sharply, increasing 1.2 percent in July; it has increased 3.9 percent over the past three months....The index for nonalcoholic beverages increased 0.9 percent in July as the coffee index continued to rise sharply." Elsewhere confirming that as expected the unemployment situation is deterorating, with 408K initial claims printing, on expectations of 400K, and making sure we dont have a revised 19 out of19 week of consecutive 400K+ prints was last week's revised 395K claims to, hold on to your seats, 399K. That's right: a 1K in jobs breaks the trend, huzzah! Just as importantly, those on EUCs and Extended benefits continued to plunge, dropping by 43K in the last week. And most frightening, the one year change in Americans receiving Emergency Compensation (EUC) has plunged from 4.7 Million to 3.1 Million. That's 1.6 million Americans who no longer even collect any benefits from the government.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/more-jobless-stagflation-cpi-05-expectations-02-jobless-claims-back-comfortably-400k-territory

[Po_d Mainiac]

23. the revision fell just short of the 4 handle hmm n/t

[Roland99]

27. Aug. Philly Fed new orders -26.8 vs 0.1 July

[Pale Blue Dot]

28. It gets worse: Existing home sales below "expectations" and Philly Fed is a DISASTER.

-30.7

[Roland99]

34. Sales of existing homes fall 3.5% in July

[Demeter]

63. final reports

Release For Actual Forecast Consensus Prior Revised From



Initial Claims 08/13 408K 400K 400K 399K 395K

Continuing Claims 08/6 3702K 3700K 3698K 3695K 3688K

CPI Jul 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% -0.2%

Core CPI Jul 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%

Existing Home Sales Jul 4.67M 4.70M 4.87M 4.84M 4.77M

Philadelphia Fed Aug -30.7 0.0 1.0 3.20

Leading Indicators Jul 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%

Read more: http://www.briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2011/08/15-19/#ixzz1VPgIZXgd

So, Initial claims not only higher than expected, also last month higher than reported....same with the continuing claims, no surprise there.

CPI more than double, nope, no good news there.

[xchrom]

2. good morning all

:donut:

[Tansy_Gold]

19. g'morning, x & friends!

:donut:

Probably off to buy a new computer this morning. Whose stock should I boost with my consumer purchase?


Tansy Gold, trying to figure out how she's going to balance her own budget to pay for this

[hamerfan]

32. Good luck with whatever you decide on

If I were looking for a new computer, I'd give serious consideration to the new Apple Mac Mini:

http://store.apple.com/us/browse/home/shop_mac/family/mac_mini?mco=MTM3NjY1OTU

But that's just me.... Good luck!

[Tansy_Gold]

54. Sorry, but I can't have apple

It has nothing to do with the fact that I despise Apple and have for years, for a variety of reasons. But this is my "work" computer and we're required to have PCs.

I ended up with an inexpensive Lenovo from Best Buy. Could have got a little bit faster Asus, but didn't want to drive the extra distance. Don't need nothin' fancy, just somethin' to get the job done, y'know?


TG, off to put the new toy together

[hamerfan]

67. Lenovo is good!

If I ever got a laptop/notebook computer, it'd be their Thinkpad.
Congrats and here's to a new computer!

[xchrom]

35. hi miss tansy!

:hi:

[Fuddnik]

36. Go to CompUSA.com.

They have some good deals on bare bones and kits. Just add operating system and you're in bizness.

It all depends on your hardware literacy, and need for non-existent tech support with the other companies.

[Pale Blue Dot]

3. Oil hovers below $87 amid glum economic outlook

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia – Oil prices fell below $87 a barrel Thursday in Asia on renewed concerns that the U.S. economy may weaken and hit fuel demand in the world's top crude consumer.

Benchmark oil for September delivery was down 76 cents to $86.82 a barrel at late afternoon Kuala Lumpur time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude rose 93 cents to settle at $87.58 on Wednesday.

In London, Brent crude for October delivery was down 53 cents to $110.05 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

Oil was lower Thursday in line with falls in Asian stock markets, analysts said.

http://old.news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[rfranklin]

4. Good morning! Casino headed for losses?

U.S. stock futures slump on growth fears
Weekly jobless claims and CPI data awaited

By William L. Watts, MarketWatch
FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) — U.S. stock futures slumped on Thursday, as fears over global growth prospects and Europe’s ongoing sovereign-debt woes weighed on equity markets around the world.

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/zigman/1785993 DJ1U -1.71% fell 173 points to stand at 11,208. Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures /quotes/zigman/1277190 SP1U -2.02% dropped 21.2 points to 1,168.70, while Nasdaq 100 futures /quotes/zigman/876546 ND1U -2.17% lost 43.25 points to trade at 2,132.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-slump-on-growth-fears-2011-08-18?dist=beforebell

[Pale Blue Dot]

5. U.S. Stock-Index Futures Slide Before Reports

U.S. stock futures sank as investors awaited reports that may show jobless claims rose and leading economic indicators fell and Sweden’s financial regulator said banks are unprepared for a freeze in money markets.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Morgan Stanley fell in early New York trading as the Wall Street Journal also said U.S. regulators are stepping up scrutiny of European banks’ local operations on concern that the region’s sovereign debt crisis may lead to funding problems. NetApp Inc. (NTAP) tumbled 14 percent after the maker of data-storage products reported first-quarter earnings that missed analyst estimates.

Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures expiring in September slid 1.7 percent to 1,169.4 at 7:19 a.m. in New York. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures retreated 167 points, or 1.5 percent, to 11,214.

“We still have a lot of questions on the economy,” said Guillaume Duchesne, an equity strategist at BGL BNP Paribas SA in Luxembourg. “Markets are worried and stocks linked to the economy are strongly penalized.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-18/u-s-stock-index-futures-slide-jpmorgan-morgan-stanley-netapp-decline.html

It looks like a bloodbath in Europe, too.

[Po_d Mainiac]

15. Charts point to two trading ranges

e/s 1100-1175

or

900-1000

Place your bets, the croupier has returned from taking a dump.
YMMV

[Pale Blue Dot]

14. Futures are still lower after the reports. nt

[Pale Blue Dot]

6. Taibbi on SEC’s Records Destruction Reveals How Deeply Entrenched Official Corrpution Is

Matt Taibbi has published yet another serious expose, and this one is appalling in that it shows how long standing and deeply institutionalized the “nothing to see here” practices are engrained at the SEC.

This is the guts of the article:

For the past two decades, according to a whistle-blower at the SEC who recently came forward to Congress, the agency has been systematically destroying records of its preliminary investigations once they are closed. By whitewashing the files of some of the nation’s worst financial criminals, the SEC has kept an entire generation of federal investigators in the dark about past inquiries into insider trading, fraud and market manipulation against companies like Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank and AIG. With a few strokes of the keyboard, the evidence gathered during thousands of investigations – “18,000 … including Madoff,” as one high-ranking SEC official put it during a panicked meeting about the destruction – has apparently disappeared forever into the wormhole of history….

It goes without saying that no ordinary law-enforcement agency would willingly destroy its own evidence. In fact, when it comes to garden-variety crooks, more and more police agencies are catching criminals with the aid of large and well-maintained databases.

Don’t underestimate the seriousness of these charges. The SEC’s own staff has admitted that this behavior may well be criminal, and the agency has responded to inquires with remarkably obfuscatory replies, which is usually a official sign that the facts are ugly.

Not only is this conduct appalling, but the timeline is revealing. It apparently dates to at least 1993, when Clinton appointee Arthur Levitt became chairman. This is well before most people would date Wall Street having much impact on undermining regulation (although if my memory serves me right, a significant first step was the Greenspan Fed abandoning oversight of primary dealers, which took place in 1992). Levitt was from Wall Street, he had been the chairman of the American Stock Exchange. But he has tried to wrap himself in the mantle of being the friend of the small investor and blamed the erosion of the SEC on regular threats by Congressmen like Joe Lieberman, the Senator from Hedgistan, who found this stance to be too much and threatened to cut SEC funding. It isn’t clear if the practice started under Levitt, but Levitt notably was the first SEC chairman for decades who was not an attorney. His history in the industry and his lack of legal expertise was questioned as being likely to weaken the agency, and with the benefit of hindsight, that effort may have been more deliberate and wideranging.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/08/taibbi-on-secs-records-destruction-reveals-how-deeply-entrenched-official-corrpution-is.html

Hat tip to Pod_Maniac!

[Demeter]

65. The Dog Ate My Evidence Files

[Pale Blue Dot]

7. Quelle Surprise! Standard & Poor’s Execs Diddled in Mortgage Bond Ratings (Updated)

Louise Story at the New York Times reports that the SEC is looking into whether it has grounds to file suit against the ratings agency Standard & Poor’s for publishing higher ratings on bonds than the analysts had recommended. The article reports that the agency has found instances where executives overrode analyst judgement to award higher ratings on mortgage bonds that were later downgraded and produced investor losses. The piece indicates that the SEC has found instances of this sort of misconduct; the question seems to be whether it took place often enough to make a case.

From the Obama administration’s standpoint, it must seems rather unfortunate that the SEC has decided to go after S&P just as Matt Taibbi has called attention to the fact that the agency has organized its affairs so as to help it avoid seeing all but the most egregious misconduct. Readers will point out that any case would be politically motivated, but those who live by the sword should be prepared to die by the sword. S&P’s downgrade of the US bears all the hallmarks of reflecting the agenda of McGraw Hill chairman and CEO Terry McGraw. Among other things, he is head of the Business Roundtable, which has having Social Security privatized as one of its policy aims. S&P was completely silent when the deficit widening Bush tax cut extensions were approved at the end of last year. Jane Hamsher has chronicled in detail how S&P swung into action on the deficit attack front when efforts to increase regulation of its activities ratcheted up. So having chosen to wage a political war, S&P should not be surprised to encounter this sort of pushback.

Ironically, the downgrade may provide the impetus to finish a Dodd Frank task that was left incomplete: that of reducing the importance of ratings in the investment process.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/08/quelle-surprise-standard-poors-execs-diddled-in-mortgage-bond-ratings.html

[Pale Blue Dot]

8. Gold rises towards record high, unease deepens

Reuters) - Gold rallied back toward record highs above $1,800 an ounce on Thursday, driven by unease over the lack of a solution to the European debt crisis and sluggish growth in the developed world which has shaken investor confidence in stocks, bonds and hard currencies.

Prices have climbed to within $5 of last week's record high of $1,813.79 an ounce.

Although it remains off the inflation-adjusted peak above $2,000 struck in 1980, it is one of the top performing assets this year, up by over 25 percent versus a 15-percent loss in U.S. blue-chip stocks .SPX or a 7.7-percent decline in the price of copper.

Growth in the United States, which last week lost its top-notch credit rating, has been patchy, while European leaders struggle to contain the spread of the debt crisis that has forced Greece, Portugal and Ireland to seek emergency funding and now threatens to swamp Italy and Spain.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/18/us-markets-precious-idUSTRE7781Q420110818

[Po_d Mainiac]

17. Ag is lagging big time.

40:1 wood put the white metal in the $45/oz range.

Rooster feathers had a gr8 run but are starting to wane a bit.

[Demeter]

66. The market is getting saturated, maybe?

[Pale Blue Dot]

11. Citing Debt and Benefits, Fitch Lowers Bond Rating for New Jersey

Despite its efforts to cut spending, New Jersey is a riskier investment, one of the leading ratings agencies said on Wednesday as it lowered the state’s credit rating, citing heavy debt and benefits obligations.

Fitch Ratings lowered its assessment of New Jersey’s general obligation bonds one notch, to AA– from AA. Fitch’s ratings for Kentucky and Michigan are also AA–; only California and Illinois have worse ratings.

In June, Gov. Chris Christie and the Legislature agreed on health care and pension changes for public workers that will save New Jersey billions of dollars. That deal added to other large budget cuts Mr. Christie had passed since taking office in January 2010, as well as savings he hopes to get in continuing contract talks with public-employee unions.

But Fitch called the benefits package a mixed blessing. In the long run, it will improve the condition of New Jersey’s pension funds, whose problems stem largely from the state’s failure to make most of its contributions to the funds over the past decade. But in the short run, Fitch said the deal could make the state’s finances worse. It included a requirement that New Jersey increase its pension contributions gradually over the next few years, moving toward making its annual pension payments fully; the amount it contributes will rise to $5 billion for 2018.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/18/nyregion/fitch-lowers-new-jersey-credit-rating-to-aa-from-aa.html

[Pale Blue Dot]

12. Fed Dissenters Say Rate Pledge Sent Pro-Stocks Signal

Two Federal Reserve policy makers said the central bank’s commitment to keep its benchmark rate near zero for two years may create a misperception it’s aimed at boosting stocks, which contributed to their opposition.

Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said in an interview yesterday that taking action after stocks tumbled “signaled that we are in the business of supporting the stock market.” Richard Fisher, the Dallas Fed chief, said in a speech that the Fed “should never enact such asymmetric policies to protect stock market traders and investors.” Both also said the policy won’t help spur growth.

Plosser, Fisher and Narayana Kocherlakota of Minneapolis voted against last week’s Fed decision to hold the benchmark interest rate at a record low until at least mid-2013, the most dissent in almost 19 years. The move followed an 18 percent drop in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index of stocks from the end of April through Aug. 8.

“It was inappropriate policy at an inappropriate time,” Plosser said yesterday in a radio interview in New York on “Bloomberg Surveillance” with Tom Keene and Ken Prewitt. Policy makers will probably need to raise rates before 2013 and should have waited to see how the economy performed, he said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-17/plosser-fisher-say-fed-shouldn-t-prop-up-stocks-through-monetary-policy.html

Well, duh.

[Po_d Mainiac]

18. That's humorous

chairsatan only measures the economy by the Russell 2000

[Fuddnik]

25. Yeah, they're really getting a boost this morning!

[Roland99]

20. 9:45am - Holy Crap! WTF?? (DJIA -3%, NASDAQ -4%, Gold over $1800/oz)

Dow 11,071 -339 -2.97%
Nasdaq 2,410 -101 -4.03%
S&P 500 1,153 -41 -3.41%
GlobalDow 1,829 -67 -3.56%
Oil 84.87 -2.71 -3.09%
Gold 1,820 +26 +1.47%

[DemReadingDU]

21. Dow -349

Yikes!

[Fuddnik]

22. All casino, all the time.

Nobody can figure this crap out anymore.

[DemReadingDU]

24. I gave up stocks 3 years ago

I can't afford this kind of gambling

[fasttense]

26. My gambling addiction has just been cured. Too much stress. n/t

[Fuddnik]

29. Dow -448 at 10:04am.

:crazy: :crazy: :crazy:

[Roland99]

30. 10:00am - Tack yet another 1% loss on top of that after the Philly Fed report. DJIA under 11k

Dow 10,949 -461 -4.04%
Nasdaq 2,387 -125 -4.96%
S&P 500 1,141 -53 -4.44%
GlobalDow 1,815 -81 -4.29%
Oil 83.96 -3.62 -4.13%
Gold 1,817 +23 +1.30%

[Roland99]

31. DJIA -500 and going

[Warpy]

38. Yeah, holy shit! Who pulled the plug this time?

Are they rushing out of stocks in order to try to build another oil bubble? Or did today's fall in the dollar trigger a sell off by foreign investors? Or is it all those stupid computer programs that make it such a crooked game for flesh and blood investors?

Whatever it is, it looks like our wild ride is going to continue, probably until we have another election and kick out the Tea Party, a group that is now less popular than Muslims and atheists, according to the NYT.

[Ghost Dog]

43. 'Official' stenographers' explanations:

Several U.S. economic reports added to the market's funk, with a drop in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's business activity index to minus 30.7 especially unnerving investors as it is a forward-looking indicator of national manufacturing.

The reports showed factory activity in the Mid-Atlantic region plunged in August to its lowest level since March 2009; existing home sales unexpectedly fell in July. The number of Americans seeking new jobless benefits climbed last week and consumer prices rose at the fastest pace in four months in July.

"The market is in meltdown mode; the data continues to stink. I don't know that there's much more to be said. We continue to be in a soft patch," said Sal Catrini, managing director for equities at Cantor Fitzgerald & Co in New York.

Sentiment worsened after the Philly Fed report as any reading below zero indicates contraction in factories in eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware.

/... http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/08/18/uk-markets-global-idUKTRE77E0BL20110818


U.S. stocks tumbled amid growing concern the global economy is slowing and speculation that European banks lack enough capital, while hopes for more stimulus from the Federal Reserve receded.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-18/u-s-stock-index-futures-slide-jpmorgan-morgan-stanley-netapp-decline.html

[Roland99]

33. CNBC Video: Art Laffer - Tax the Poorer

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000039206

[mrdmk]

37. About the Laffer Curve, there is no mathematical formula associated with it

It is a theoretical picture comparing the Tax Rate vs. government revenue. Of course there is some merit to the thought of too little or too much tax can lower government revenue. The Laffer Curve does not prove or provide a formula where the tax rate at vs. revenue. Government revenue formula is just to complex for the Supply Side economics theory to explain.

Some interesting facts:

1) The Laffer curve is associated with supply-side economics, where its use in debates over rates of taxation has also been controversial. The Laffer curve was popularized by Jude Wanniski in the 1970s, with Wanniski naming the curve after the work of Arthur Laffer. Laffer later pointed out that the concept was not original, noting similar ideas in the writings of both 14th century North African polymath Ibn Khaldun (who discussed the idea in his 1377 Muqaddimah) and John Maynard Keynes. Numerous other historical precedents also exist.

2) The term "Laffer curve" was reportedly coined by Jude Wanniski (a writer for The Wall Street Journal) after a 1974 afternoon meeting between Laffer, Wanniski, Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, and his deputy press secretary Grace-Marie Arnett. In this meeting, Laffer, arguing against President Gerald Ford's tax increase, reportedly sketched the curve on a napkin to illustrate the concept. Cheney did not buy the idea immediately, but it caught the imaginations of those present. Laffer professes no recollection of this napkin, but writes: "I used the so-called Laffer Curve all the time in my classes and with anyone else who would listen to me."

3) Both Wanniski and Laffer were prominent supply-side advocates, and as such the concepts of the Laffer curve and supply-side economics are often conflated. Further, supply-side advocates have at times argued for lower taxes on the basis of supply-side benefits while citing the Laffer curve as a reason that such cuts would also raise revenue. However, the objective of supply-side theory is to maximize the supply of goods and services, and to achieve this one should, in theory, always lower taxes. In contrast, the Laffer curve would suggest that a tax cut would raise tax revenues only if current tax rates were in the right-hand region of the curve.

Link for more reading: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve

[Fuddnik]

40. If it were theoretical, it would have some math behind it to back it up.

This is hypothetical bullshit at best.

Fantasy and delusional propaganda at worst.

I believe the latter.

[tclambert]

59. But where is the peak in the Laffer curve? How do you know where on the curve we are?

Those are the first two questions I asked when I first heard of the Laffer Curve (in the 80s). Nobody ever tried to answer them.

Then I asked: What about government spending? Doesn't increased government spending stimulate the economy? And what is the effect on the economy of different kinds of tax cuts/increases and spending programs?

The very last question has been addressed at least in part. Moody's did a study they called "fiscal stimulus bang for the buck" and found the Bush tax cuts only providing 31 cents of stimulus per dollar, while food stamps provided $1.73 per buck. Basically, programs or tax cuts that gave more money to poor people created more stimulus; those that gave more money to the rich created less (or lost money). I can't find a direct link to the source. Here's a secondary source: http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=11354

The Laffer curve is a simplistic exercise in the economic principle of optimization. But it became a propaganda tool for tax haters, who would only look at the right hand side of the curve and say, "See? If we cut taxes, we actually increase revenue! It's a win-win." What if we're on the left hand side of the curve? "Never mind! Look at the monkey! Look at the silly monkey!" Anybody who cites the Laffer Curve as proof of anything is just playing propaganda games.

[DemReadingDU]

39. Graham Summers: This Isn't Just a Correction... The Second Round of the GREAT Crisis is Here!

8/18/11 This Isn't Just a Correction... The Second Round of the GREAT Crisis is Here!

Graham Summers says...

I warned all through the last week that the market rally was just a snapback bounce common to collapses. Indeed, as noted before, during the 2008 Crash we had bounces of 11%, 17%, even 20% as the market worked its way lower.

So it should be no surprise that after rallying 10% in a week or so, the market is now rolling over in a big way. You don’t wipe out 9 months’ worth of gains in two weeks from a simple correction.

And people were really thinking the bounce was the start of a new sustained rally?

The facts remain: the financial system is now more leveraged than during the Tech Bubble, mutual funds are more heavily invested in stocks than at any point in the last 40 years (hello redemptions), the derivatives market has not been reined in, the global economy is once again turning sharply downward, the EU and European banking system are collapsing, the US economy is now clearly in a double dip (within the confines of an ongoing DE-pression), and China is heading into a hard landing…

You don’t get a simple market correction from this. Indeed, we’re now officially in the Second Round of the Great Crisis. And if you thought the first Round of the Financial Crisis was bad, wait until you see the next one. Indeed, I fully expect that what’s coming is going to be 2008 on STEROIDS. I’m talking about market crashes, civil unrest, riots, bank holidays and more. Many people will lose everything in this mess.
a bit more...
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/isnt-just-correction-second-round-great-crisis-here

[Fuddnik]

41. I'm inclined to agree.

Throw in a completely dysfunctional government, that completely misdiagnoses the disease, an keeps proposing the same wrong solutions that make the patient sicker and sicker,you've got a recipe for a shit sandwich like you ain't never seen before!

[Po_d Mainiac]

42. got lead? n/t

[Pale Blue Dot]

44. The Scariest Chart Ever: Philly Fed Versus Non-Farm Payrolls

-700K NFP print coming?



http://www.zerohedge.com/news/scariest-chart-ever-philly-fed-versus-non-farm-payrolls

[Roland99]

47. oh YIKES

[Pale Blue Dot]

45. Greece Threatens To Unwind Second Bailout By Agreeing To Finland Collateral Demands

One of the biggest stories this morning is that European cohesion and solidarity is about to crumble after it was disclosed that Greece was pursuing a private deal with Finland in which Greece promised to collateralize Finnish contributions, in essence eliminating Finland's contribution to the Greek Bailout round 2. As Kathimerini reported, "Greece and Finland agreed on Tuesday to virtually cancel the latter’s participation in the former’s second bailout package, following three days of negotiations between Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos and his Finnish counterpart Jutta Urpilainen. Finland’s share in the 109-billion-euro package amounts to about 1 billion, which Helsinki will pay to Greece but Athens will repay it through a new loan contract to be signed for this purpose and which will be valid for the next 25 years (likely to be the maturing period of the new loans, too). This means in practice that Finland’s contribution to the new package will be returned in full and deposited in a special account to be created by the Finnish government." End result is that everyone else has immediately come demanding the same treatment: first the Austrians, next the Dutch, and last the Slovenians. And what happens if Finland backtracks on its collateral demand: will it back out of the Greek bailout as well? Or, if Finland digs in, and all the non-German countries follow suit, will Germany say Enough and tell Europe (and China) to fix its own problems?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/greece-threatens-unwind-second-bailout-agreeing-finland-collateral-demands

[Ghost Dog]

46. World stocks slump on global recession fears

AFP - Global stocks slumped Thursday as more weak data fuelled concern that the world was heading for another recession, and after the US Federal Reserve reportedly expressed concerns over European banks' liquidity.

Traders' screens were awash with red, as Madrid, Milan and Paris equities plunged more than 6.0 percent, while London, Paris and Zurich shed more than 5.0 percent...

...The European single currency fell against the dollar as investors sought to lessen their risk exposure, dealers said.

Banking stocks in Paris were particularly hard hit on Thursday, with BNP Paribas off 8.24 percent, Credit Agricole down 9.0 percent and Societe Generale lost more than 12 percent...

...Traders were reacting to a report in the Wall Street Journal that the Fed is concerned European banks might be forced to repatriate funds from US subsidiaries in the event of a liquidity shortage.

/... http://www.france24.com/en/20110818-world-stocks-slump-global-recession-fears

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

48. Oh, no!

[Fuddnik]

49. Haven't seen him in a long time!

All we need now are the Killer Bees.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

50. -->

[DainBramaged]

51. ................

[Pale Blue Dot]

52. U.S. bond yields plunge as economy fears mount

(Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices soared on Thursday and benchmark 10-year note yields fell below 2 percent for the first time as global economic fears sent investors scrambling for safe-haven government debt.

U.S. bond buying intensified after data showed that factory activity in the Mid-Atlantic region plummeted in August while sales of U.S. existing homes unexpectedly dropped in July.

Rising fears about the ability of European policymakers to contain the region's debt crisis, which threatens to further derail economic recovery in Europe, earlier had driven a bid for U.S. Treasury debt.

The latest U.S. data added to concerns that the United States will head back into recession at the same time as the country's rising debt load and record deficit leaves the government and the Federal Reserve with fewer options to stimulate growth.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/18/us-markets-bonds-idUSTRE77H3TU20110818

[Roland99]

53. 3:15pm angels are noticeably absent today.

[Pale Blue Dot]

55. A bad HP earnings report delayed them a little

But they're hard at work now, trying to ensure that the Dow doesn't fall more than 500 points.

[Fuddnik]

57. Aint working .

-508 now.

[Roland99]

58. Nearly a 100pt rise off that low.

[Roland99]

60. back over 11k

[Roland99]

61. whoops...they couldn't hold it.

[Demeter]

62. 28th rec (it's been crazy)

The humidity is back...took the Younger Kid to the airport so she can help her aunt and uncle empty out her grandfather's house and drive a van back with stuff.
Guess who drove her to the airport at 8 am? And the grandpuppy stayed with us, but I wasn't there--I was getting a wheel bearing replaced on the same side as the tie rod replaced last week. Sigh. I guess I'm ready for winter, at least in the front end.

Looks like the DOW was similarly afflicted.

And the email piles up...

[mahatmakanejeeves]

64. HP to kill TouchPad, may spin off PC business, buy British firm

HP to kill TouchPad, may spin off PC business, buy British firm

August 18, 2011 | 1:01 pm (Los Angeles time, which is one minute past the closing time of the stock exchanges on the East Coast)

Hewlett-Packard Co. may spin off its personal computer business -- the world's largest -- as well as continue to reconfigure itself as a corporate technology provider by acquiring the British software firm Autonomy Corp.

The company said it would discontinue production of its TouchPad tablet computer and related smartphones, which have not sold well.

"HP confirms that it is in discussions with Autonomy regarding a possible offer for the company," the Palo Alto, Calif., computing giant said in a statement Thursday before the close of the stock market.
....

HP said that, as well as discontinuing the TouchPad, it would stop making all smartphones based on the webOS operating system it inherited after its purchase last year of phone maker Palm Inc.

[Festivito]

68. Debt: 08/16/2011 14,592,242,215,641.90 (DOWN 23,325,132,561.81) (Tue, DOWN a little.)

(UNDER the new 2011 debt limit of 14.694-trillion dollars by 298.242-billion dollars. Good day.)
Molly went for a walk with me tonight.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,946,506,731,022.45 + 4,645,735,484,619.45
DOWN 111,149,424.58 + DOWN 23,213,983,137.23

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 313-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.20 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,198.13 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.59, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 312,682,592 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $46,667.91.
A family of three owes $140,003.72. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 10,839,101,823.87.
The average for the last 30 days would be 8,309,978,064.97.
The average for the last 32 days would be 7,790,604,435.91.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 217 reports in 320 days of FY2011 averaging 4.75B$ per report, 3.22B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 523 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 15.3 and 18.7T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/16/2011 14,592,242,215,641.90 BHO (UP 3,965,365,166,728.82 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +1,030,619,184,750.20 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,175,550,007,605.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/27/2011 +000,470,569,863.89 ------------********
07/28/2011 +005,447,179,210.73 ------------*********
07/29/2011 +002,605,572,370.14 ------------*********
08/01/2011 +027,273,368,503.87 ------------********** Mon
08/02/2011 +124,683,694,907.85 ------------***********
08/03/2011 -000,098,125,325.28 ----
08/04/2011 -012,807,553,395.89 -
08/05/2011 +020,147,316,949.47 ------------**********
08/08/2011 +000,521,563,614.23 ------------******** Mon
08/09/2011 +000,429,866,034.74 ------------********
08/10/2011 +000,350,635,620.42 ------------********
08/11/2011 +004,850,153,175.74 ------------*********
08/12/2011 +000,032,128,181.66 ------------*******
08/15/2011 +025,439,150,731.40 ------------********** Mon
08/16/2011 -000,111,149,424.58 ---

199,234,371,018.39 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4963893&mesg_id=4963923

[Festivito]

69. Debt: 08/17/2011 14,613,193,161,764.37 (UP 20,950,946,122.47) (Wed, DOWN a little.)

(UNDER the new 2011 debt limit of 14.694-trillion dollars by 319.193-billion dollars. Good day.)
Only Ben is around.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,946,351,371,658.73 + 4,666,841,790,105.64
DOWN 155,359,363.72 + UP 21,106,305,486.19

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 313-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.20 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,198.06 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.59, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 312,689,792 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $46,733.84.
A family of three owes $140,201.51. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 11,260,428,669.65.
The average for the last 30 days would be 9,008,342,935.72.
The average for the last 33 days would be 8,189,402,668.83.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 218 reports in 321 days of FY2011 averaging 4.82B$ per report, 3.28B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 522 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 15.3 and 18.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/17/2011 14,613,193,161,764.37 BHO (UP 3,986,316,112,851.29 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +1,051,570,130,872.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,195,710,584,948.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/28/2011 +005,447,179,210.73 ------------*********
07/29/2011 +002,605,572,370.14 ------------*********
08/01/2011 +027,273,368,503.87 ------------********** Mon
08/02/2011 +124,683,694,907.85 ------------***********
08/03/2011 -000,098,125,325.28 ----
08/04/2011 -012,807,553,395.89 -
08/05/2011 +020,147,316,949.47 ------------**********
08/08/2011 +000,521,563,614.23 ------------******** Mon
08/09/2011 +000,429,866,034.74 ------------********
08/10/2011 +000,350,635,620.42 ------------********
08/11/2011 +004,850,153,175.74 ------------*********
08/12/2011 +000,032,128,181.66 ------------*******
08/15/2011 +025,439,150,731.40 ------------********** Mon
08/16/2011 -000,111,149,424.58 ---
08/17/2011 -000,155,359,363.72 ---

198,608,441,790.78 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4965070&mesg_id=4965602

[Pale Blue Dot]

70. One bank down... on Thursday???

Capital Bank, National Association, Rockville, Maryland, Assumes All of the Deposits of Public Savings Bank, Huntingdon Valley, Pennsylvania


Public Savings Bank, Huntingdon Valley, Pennsylvania, was closed today by the Pennsylvania Department of Banking, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. To protect the depositors, the FDIC entered into a purchase and assumption agreement with Capital Bank, National Association, Rockville, Maryland, to assume all of the deposits of Public Savings Bank.

The sole branch of Public Savings Bank will reopen on Friday as a branch of Capital Bank, National Association. Depositors of Public Savings Bank will automatically become depositors of Capital Bank, National Association. Deposits will continue to be insured by the FDIC, so there is no need for customers to change their banking relationship in order to retain their deposit insurance coverage up to applicable limits. Customers of Public Savings Bank should continue to use their existing branch until they receive notice from Capital Bank, National Association that it has completed systems changes to allow other Capital Bank, National Association branches to process their accounts as well.

This evening, Friday and over the weekend, depositors of Public Savings Bank can access their money by writing checks or using ATM or debit cards. Checks drawn on the bank will continue to be processed. Loan customers should continue to make their payments as usual.

As of June 30, 2011, Public Savings Bank had approximately $46.8 million in total assets and $45.8 million in total deposits. In addition to assuming all of the deposits of the failed bank, Capital Bank, National Association agreed to purchase essentially all of the assets.

Customers with questions about today's transaction should call the FDIC toll-free at 1-800-523-8089. The phone number will be operational this evening until 9:00 p.m., Eastern Daylight Time (EDT); on Friday from 9:00 a.m. until 6 p.m., EDT; on Saturday from 9:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m., EDT; on Sunday from noon to 6:00 p.m., EDT; and thereafter from 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m., EDT. Interested parties also can visit the FDIC's Web site at http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/publicsvgs.html.

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $11.0 million. Compared to other alternatives, Capital Bank, National Association's acquisition was the least costly resolution for the FDIC's DIF. Public Savings Bank is the 65th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the first in Pennsylvania. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Earthstar Bank, Southampton, on December 10, 2010.

[Demeter]

71. Well, no law that says they can't do it during week