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TomCADem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-16-11 09:44 PM
Original message
U.S. hits debt limit and takes actions to postpone a default
Edited on Mon May-16-11 09:46 PM by TomCADem
Source: LA Times

With the federal government hitting its $14.3-trillion debt limit, Treasury officials have started a complex fiscal juggling act to postpone the date when the government can no longer pay its bills.

But those accounting tricks, such as tapping two federal employees pension funds for loans, would buy only 11 more weeks for the White House and lawmakers to increase the debt ceiling.

On Aug. 2, the juggling act would be over, Obama administration officials said.

That would force the U.S., for the first time, to begin defaulting on interest payments owed to holders of government securities and trigger a sort of slow-motion, partial government shutdown in which Washington would stop paying employees, contractors and beneficiaries of Social Security and other programs.

* * *

Faced with the potential that Social Security checks would not be issued in 1996, Congress gave the Treasury special authority to issue securities to continue making payments on time until a debt-ceiling stalemate was resolved.



Read more: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-debt-ceiling-20110517,0,5038135.story



To buy time, the Obama administration should start implementing some of these emergency measures sooner to avoid a complete shutdown of the federal government. In California, when Republicans began to stall out the budget, the Democratic State Controller was able to keep the government running by deferring payments to contractors to avoid a complete shut down due to Republican refusal to approve a budget unless environmental restrictions were repealed.
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JDPriestly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-16-11 10:13 PM
Response to Original message
1. What does that mean?
Here are my guesses.

Caveat. I am not an economist. I'm just hoping to start a discussion with people who know more about this than I do. Thanks in advance.

Our money will be worth less and less and less on international markets. Our buying power will go down. We experienced this personally years ago when we moved to the UK and then naively exchanged our dollars into pounds. The pounds lost value against other currencies -- and -- Woops! We didn't lose money. Our money lots its value.

This will mean that we can't buy as much imported stuff with our money. Since we import most of our consumer goods and more of our food than we realize, prices on those things will go up. They could rise very, very quickly depending on how quickly our dollar declines in value as well as on the amount of panic that spreads.

Panic -- that happens because, even though prices are outrageously high, the stores don't sell as much and therefore don't stock as much as they once did. News gets around, and it can happen although it won't necessarily happen, that people buy everyday necessities like toilet paper off the shelves just to make sure that they won't ever run out at home.

I mention toilet paper because, if I recall correctly there actually was a "run" on toilet paper when we lived in the UK and the pound was in trouble way back when.

I've done a lot of reading on the legal cases in German courts during the great German inflation in the 1920s. The landlords who had entered into longterm leases suffered the most. The leases specified the amounts of rent the tenant would pay. And, as the inflation worsened, the agreed rent in many apartments did not even cover the cost of heat. The German courts had the authority to virtually rewrite or renegotiate the leases to help the landlords. I doubt that would happen here outside, perhaps, of bankruptcy court. And even in bankruptcy court, the renter would probably lose the right to live in the leased housing.

So, after the fact that we have rampant inflation becomes obvious, creditors will demand higher interest returns for loaning money, and the Fed will raise those rates to slow the inflation.

Thus, interest rates will go up so that we can get the money to keep things like defense and the basic requirements of government including employee salaries, Social Security and Medicare going. People could die without those basics.

And then we will owe more money. And no amount of future cuts will change this fact because the money we know owe is for things we already bought and paid for.

Get ready for the end of free trade and a lot of other things our politicians just love -- like happy voters.

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melm00se Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-17-11 07:28 AM
Response to Reply #1
8. some comments
Our money will be worth less and less and less on international markets. Our buying power will go down. We experienced this personally years ago when we moved to the UK and then naively exchanged our dollars into pounds. The pounds lost value against other currencies -- and -- Woops! We didn't lose money. Our money lots its value.


already happening. cause: print money faster than your economy grows and your money becomes worth less and less relative to other currencies and commodities. One of the reasons that things like oil and gold have been going up.

This will mean that we can't buy as much imported stuff with our money. Since we import most of our consumer goods and more of our food than we realize, prices on those things will go up. They could rise very, very quickly depending on how quickly our dollar declines in value as well as on the amount of panic that spreads.


On the other side of the coin, US exports cost less in the importing country which could (should) positively impact manufacturing in the USA.

Panic -- that happens because, even though prices are outrageously high, the stores don't sell as much and therefore don't stock as much as they once did. News gets around, and it can happen although it won't necessarily happen, that people buy everyday necessities like toilet paper off the shelves just to make sure that they won't ever run out at home.


In a steady state economy (no changes to adapt to current conditions) you are correct. As our economy adapts (and capitalism does allow for more flexibility than other economic models), the panic will recede. The thing that could get in the way is overregulation (note: I am NOT saying no regulation but like anything too much of even a good thing can be bad).

I've done a lot of reading on the legal cases in German courts during the great German inflation in the 1920s. The landlords who had entered into longterm leases suffered the most. The leases specified the amounts of rent the tenant would pay. And, as the inflation worsened, the agreed rent in many apartments did not even cover the cost of heat. The German courts had the authority to virtually rewrite or renegotiate the leases to help the landlords. I doubt that would happen here outside, perhaps, of bankruptcy court. And even in bankruptcy court, the renter would probably lose the right to live in the leased housing.


This is the reverse side of rent control.

So, after the fact that we have rampant inflation becomes obvious, creditors will demand higher interest returns for loaning money, and the Fed will raise those rates to slow the inflation.


yes, but a focus on a rebuilding a balanced economy can ameliorate much of this. If an economy has better balance, the need for imports lessens but to do so, some ideological sacrifices (by all) will have to be made. Things like: energy exploration (lessens the dependency upon oil imports); investments in renewable energy as well as others.

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adigal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-17-11 09:04 AM
Response to Reply #1
11. You only owe money if you keep buying their stuff
I have really scaled down what I buy. I have been "shopping" at the local church hall and yard sales for clothes and kitchen stuff I need. I did not buy a $250 mixer the other day. Now that the nice weather is coming, I am going to buy all of my chicken, beef and veggies at the farmer's market. I did just get some topsoil for my garden, because I could compost for the next 5 years and not have enough to start my garden! I try to not buy anything at all made in China/Vietnam/Singapore. I buy American as much as possible, or I don't buy it. I have been buying canned goods and putting them away, just in case. I don't know what that might be, but I feel better having a supply of yams and veggies.

I would need toilet paper, though. Hadn't thought about that one!! I just think we need to be somewhat prepared for shortages of some sort in the next few years, because idiots are running our government now. The Repubs seems determined to take Obama down, even if they crash the economy, again, to do so.

Peace.
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RC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-16-11 10:23 PM
Response to Original message
2. When in the Hell are they going to go with the most obvious and
Do away bu$h's tax cuts and then raise taxes on those most able to pay them?

That will tide us over until we can change the laws to get our Living Wage Jobs back into this country.

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1620rock Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-16-11 10:56 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. Yes, and end these Goddamned wars!
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boppers Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-16-11 11:01 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. Tax season is over.
We need more income in days, or more debt increase in days. We have hit the limit on the credit card, and making a change that won't bring in piles of revenues for weeks, or months, doesn't cut it.
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lib2DaBone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-16-11 11:24 PM
Response to Original message
5. Back Stabbing Mo Fo's....
So this means.. our Fedeeral Govt is going to skip out on their debt.... (just like a dine-and-dash-at Dennys)?

So, how can we justify the $436 Million per day we spend on wars in Afghanistan?

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HankyDubs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-17-11 12:26 AM
Response to Original message
6. don't worry about the debt ceiling
The Wall Street masters will not allow a default on the debt.

Worry instead about the "compromise" that Obama and Boner have already negotiated and will jam through congress at the 11th hour.
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Skink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-17-11 12:33 AM
Response to Original message
7. When you have like 10 credit cards it is pretty easy to get creative.
I paid the phone bill for two years with one then paid the credit card just enough so I could do it again.
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Bragi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-17-11 08:30 AM
Response to Original message
9. I'm no economist, but...
This whole debt ceiling thing has a troublesome ring to it.
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Javaman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-17-11 08:56 AM
Response to Original message
10. Frankly, I don't want my birthday to be the day that the US government defaults.
that would really suck.

I will still have my annual banana split (I hate birthday cake), but it would still suck.
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