STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday September 24

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday September 24, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 23, 2010

Dow 10,662.42 -76.89 (-0.72%)
Nasdaq 2,327.08 -7.47 (-0.32%)
S&P 500 1,124.83 -9.45 (-0.83%)
Gold future... 1,292 +0.30 (+0.02%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.54 -0.01 (-0.35%)
30-Year Bond 3.72 -0.01 (-0.19%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

08:30 Durable Orders Aug
Briefing.com -2.0%
Consensus -1.4%
Prior 0.4%

08:30 Durable Orders -ex Transportation Aug
Briefing.com 0.5%
Consensus 0.6%
Prior -3.7%

10:00 New Home Sales Aug
Briefing.com 270K
Consensus 291K
Prior 276K

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

23. August durable-goods orders drop 1.3%

July durables revised to 0.7% vs. 0.4% prev

August durable-goods shipments fall 1.5%

August durables ex-transportation rise 2%

U.S. August durable-goods orders down 1.3%

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/august-durable-goods-orders-drop-13-2010-09-24

Orders for U.S.-made durable goods fell 1.3% in August, the largest decline in a year, as orders for transportation equipment decreased, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a decline of 1.4% for durable-goods orders. Excluding transportation, new orders rose 2%. Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft rose 4.1% in August, compared with a decline of 5.3% in the prior month. Analysts consider these core capital goods orders to be the best gauge of capital spending by businesses. Shipments in August fell 1.5%, compared with a gain of 2.5% in the prior month. Durable-goods orders in July rose 0.7%, compared with an earlier estimate of 0.4%.

[Demeter]

24. So What Goosed the Overseas Indices?

It obviously wasn't this.

[Roland99]

93. n/m

[ozymandius]

2. Oil hovers near $75 amid mixed US economic data

SINGAPORE – Oil prices hovered near $75 a barrel Friday in Asia amid mixed U.S. economic indicators suggesting the world's largest consumer of crude remains mired in an uneven recovery.

Initial claims for jobless aid rose by 12,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 465,000, the first increase in five weeks, the Labor Department said Thursday. Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors said sales of previously occupied homes rose 7.6 percent in August from July, which was the worst month for sales in 15 years.

Investors will be watching closely the latest news on durable goods and new home sales later Friday for more clues about the strength of the U.S. economy.

In other Nymex trading in October contracts, heating oil fell 0.57 cent to $2.106 a gallon and gasoline dropped 0.74 cent to $1.91 a gallon. Natural gas held at $4.018 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

3. World shares mixed after jump in US jobless claims

SINGAPORE – World stock markets were mixed Friday after a jump in U.S. unemployment claims provided more evidence of an anemic recovery in the world's biggest economy.

In early trading in Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares fell 0.2 percent while Germany's DAX and the CAC-40 in France were little changed. Wall Street was set to post modest gains. Dow futures were up 47 points, or 0.4 percent, to 10,653.

The Nikkei 225 stock average lost 1 percent to 9,471.67. A strong yen kept pressure on exporters and technology shares, with Honda Motor Co. down 0.8 percent and camera maker Canon Inc. tumbling 1.7 percent.

Elsewhere, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose 0.3 percent to 22,119.43 while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.7 percent to 4,601.90.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100924/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[ozymandius]

4. Dems try to deflect voter anger toward Wall Street

OLYMPIA, Wash. – Patty Murray was stuck. Down in the polls for months and facing a well-known Republican challenger, the three-term Democrat was finding a difficult market for her hard-working-Senator sales pitch.

Then she started bashing Wall Street.

Now, less than a month before ballots are distributed in Washington's vote-by-mail election, Murray is apparently benefiting from some old-fashioned class warfare. She has gone from essentially being tied with challenger Dino Rossi to leading in the latest round of polls, proving that the 2010 Democratic campaign theme of linking the GOP to Wall Street greed can resonate with voters.

Tapping into the anger, Democrats from President Barack Obama on down have been trotting out the blame-the-banks mantra as they fight to maintain control of Congress and deflect voter irritation with party. Democrats need Murray to win to keep the Senate, especially if they surrender seats elsewhere as expected.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100924/ap_on_bi_ge/us_senate_blame_wall_street

---

This story demonstrates how people like Chris Dodd, Blanche Lincoln and their ilk (all tone deaf DLC types) who coddle and defend a rapacious banking industry act like acid on the soul of the party.

[Dr.Phool]

7. Then, enter the usual suspects to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Reid, Pelosi, Hoyer, and company rush in to kill a winning strategy, with half-assed promises instead of attempted action.

Profiles in Cowardice. They don't even try anymore.

[ozymandius]

9. Consider the double whammy FU from a Republican House -

They will kill extensions of unemployment benefits for their constituents and de-fund every protection afforded them in the newest banking and finance legislation.

It's so simple that a dolt with an I.Q. of 65 should be able to "get it" - tax cuts for the middle class and smashing banks' chops are a sure-fire winning strategy.

[JNelson6563]

92. Excellent point, unassailable I dare say!

As I have always been I'm in the field this election season. I'm sure you and a few other Marketeers will recall me posting as I was doing all sorts of preparations for various Dem events and efforts. I am glad to see you say this Ozy, those of us in the trenches work very hard to this get this message out to those who either don't care, favor Rethugs or think the Dems aren't left enough.

As always thanks for all the effort to keep the thread going and keep us masses informed. :loveya:

Julie

[ozymandius]

5. Some good news: Congress rolls back part of Wall Street reform bill

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Lawmakers voted on Thursday to repeal a provision in their landmark Wall Street reform bill that exempted securities regulators from complying with some requests for information from the public.

The decision to roll back part of the Dodd-Frank bill comes about two months after the legislation was enacted.

Top regulator Mary Schapiro tried to assure lawmakers that the Securities and Exchange Commission would remain accountable to the public amid concerns the SEC could use the new law to hide information.

But in the end, the Congress decided to strike language allowing the SEC not to disclose the results of examinations of specific firms.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100923/pl_nm/us_sec_congress

[ozymandius]

6. Orders for Durable Goods in U.S. Probably Declined in August

Sept. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Orders for U.S. durable goods probably dropped in August for the third time in the past four months, a sign slowing global growth is prompting companies to rein in spending, economists said before reports today.

Bookings for goods meant to last at least three years fell 1 percent, the biggest drop in a year, after rising 0.4 percent in July, according to the median forecast of 73 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Another report may show sales of new houses climbed last month from a record low.

The drop in demand was probably led by a plunge in the transportation category, which is often volatile.

Other measures of manufacturing have shown a slowdown. Factories in the New York region expanded in September at the slowest pace this year, while those in the Philadelphia area contracted for a second month, according to regional Fed surveys. Manufacturing output nationwide grew 0.2 percent in August following a 0.7 percent July gain, the Fed said last week.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3K9p1srkKmg&pos=5

[ozymandius]

8. HSBC faces top team shake-up amid turmoil

(Reuters) - A dramatic upheaval among HSBC's top management after a boardroom row has left the bank scrambling to limit damage to its reputation but unlikely to alter its increasing focus on Asia.

Chief Executive Michael Geoghegan is set to be replaced by Stuart Gulliver, the head of investment banking, and Finance Director Douglas Flint is to take over as chairman, a person familiar with the matter said on Thursday.

The board shake-up was triggered by news two weeks ago that Chairman Stephen Green was leaving for a ministerial position in the British government.

That prompted jostling for position by board members. Geoghegan threatened to quit if he was not made chairman, the Financial Times reported this week, which the bank dismissed as "nonsense."

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE68N0BP20100924?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&rpc=408

[CountAllVotes]

10. oh my oh my oh gold!

SPOT MARKET IS OPEN
closes in 10 hrs. 50 mins.
Sep 24, 2010 06:25 NY Time
Bid/Ask 1297.60 - 1298.60
Low/High 1290.90 - 1301.00
Change +5.10 +0.39%
30daychg +57.60 +4.65%
1yearchg +303.90 +30.58%

I see it yes. :D

:kick:

[Po_d Mainiac]

16. Likely due to more uncertainty in the FX

TOKYO (Reuters) - A sudden slide in the yen against the dollar on Friday stirred suspicions Japanese authorities intervened for a second time this month to try to prevent the currency's strength from worsening a faltering recovery.

Traders in Tokyo reckoned a sharp yen drop was likely due to intervention, though the fall happened at levels where authorities were not expected to act.

Some blamed corporate orders for triggering the move and others a rumor -- later denied -- that Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa planned to resign.

"At first, people thought that was intervention but it seems like the market was driven one-way by Shirakawa's rumor and so on. It was a bit like an accident," said Ayako Sera, market strategist at Sumitomo Trust Bank. "It's like everyone is afraid of ghosts in the market."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Japan-suspected-of-yen-rb-538024891.html?x=0&.v=6

[ozymandius]

11. Last post for this morning: Greenscam Porn

Ritholtz offers eye candy for your morning coffee. Now, dontcha feel just like Andrea Mitchell? :hide:

click the graphic for story

[Po_d Mainiac]

15. Perhaps if she had been a bit more bed friendly, Greenscum

wouldn't have seen doing sex to the rest of the country as such a priority.

[florida08]

12. Worlds largest wind farm opens off UK coast

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100923/ap_on_bi_ge/eu_britain_wind_farm_1

Swedish energy company Vattenfall, which constructed the wind farm, said the 100 turbines off the coast of Thanet could, at their peak, produce enough electricity a year to power the equivalent of more than 200,000 homes.

The huge site on the North Sea, built seven miles (12 kilometers) off the coast, will boost the renewable energy now generated by the onshore and offshore wind turbines around the U.K.

The huge site on the North Sea, built seven miles (12 kilometers) off the coast, will boost the renewable energy now generated by the onshore and offshore wind turbines around the U.K.

I wish we would do this around my state..but that would make too much sense


http://tinyurl.com/28dg6a7

[DemReadingDU]

13. Look at the size of those compared to the small boat!

wow!

[Papa Boule]

14. Sea breezes from all that Florida coastline

No telling how much power could be generated.

[Tansy_Gold]

18. But they would be so ugly!

I mean, compared to drilling platforms and oil spills.


:sarcasm:




Tansy Gold, who thinks every public and commercial building in Arizona should have solar panels in its roof, too

[saigon68]

21. LOL

[Roland99]

22. Or, if not solar panels, at least some ecogardening on rooftops

Might help a bit to lower temps in urban areas over time. I know Chicago was looking into that in the late 90s.

[Tansy_Gold]

29. I'm here to tell you, Roland --

Rooftop gardening in central and southern Arizona is not possible in the summertime.

Rooftop cooking, on the other hand, is a possiblity. ;-)

But I get your drift. There really are a lot of options and opportunities, but just as the legalization of marijuana threatens the legal alcohol industry, so making residents into power generators is not acceptable to the corporate masters.



TG, NTY

[Po_d Mainiac]

32. Solar Roads Fix The Grid And Crumbling Pavement

A revolutionary idea that converts existing roadways into a national solar power grid is up for a major cash prize.

Scott Brusaw (shown above) is working on a project to encapsulate solar panels in high-strength glass capable of standing up to thousands of cars and trucks passing by each day. He estimates that a single parking lot paved with solar panels — even one where cars are parked — could power the big box store it serves, and a cul-de-sac paved with solar panels could take an entire subdivision off the grid even on a cloudy day.

Eventually, LEDs built into the tops of solar panels placed on highways could move lanes around, create crosswalks, display speed limits and even detect and warn drivers about road hazards like stopped traffic and crossing wildlife. Best of all, the panels could be laid down over existing asphalt.

http://www.wired.com/autopia/?p=27255

[Roland99]

33. We'll get there someday. I just hope I'm alive to see it happen.

[skoalyman]

68. they should do it right now it would provide jobs

:shrug:

[Tansy_Gold]

42. THAT. IS. KEWL!

n/t as I am outta here. a friend is bringing

PUPPIES


to coffee.


to pet, not to eat.



Tansy Gold, who luvs PUPPIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[AnneD]

70. I love puppy breath.....

smells like to sweet bologna.

AnneD who's patron saint must be St. Jude or St. Fancis of Assisi. Hopeless causes and animals-every true Nurses' Achilles heel. Our wicked black humour masks our tender spirits.

[Loge23]

30. The horror of fallen towers!

...all those propeller thingys floating out there!

[AnneD]

71. Acutally, here in Texas....

we worry about migratory bird flying out in the Gulf. The other wind farm are out atop mesa. There is not much to worry about there. In fact it adds scenery in that but ugly patr of the country.

[Demeter]

44. Just read about underwater turbines from U of M

driven by ocean currents, invisible from land (and hopefully NOT in shipping lanes...)

[florida08]

37. at least it might cool us down a bit

[tclambert]

61. There should be windmills on the floor of Congress.

[Demeter]

64. You mean an Ox Mill

only use the congress as the oxen. After all, they LOVE to go around in circles...

[Warpy]

34. They're prettier than oil wells, that's for sure

[florida08]

38. something peaceful about them

[tclambert]

60. Another thing that creates big demand for new battery technology.

Because winds don't blow with the strength or timing you need to exactly match electricity demand, you need to store the electricity windmills generate when the wind howls so you can use it when a lull comes along. Thus, windmills create a demand for huge banks of batteries. The same is true with solar power. When it gets cloudy, or night falls, you need to release electricity generated and stored during the sunny parts of the day.

And you need a high voltage transmission grid capable of moving those megawatts from windy and sunny places to my house.

[CatholicEdHead]

66. Exactly

North Dakota is the Saudi Arabia of wind power, yet they are so far away from the major coasts that even with high power transmission lines, much of it will dissipate before it reaches NYC, LA, or New Orleans. It would suit Minneapolis and Chicago well but not really much further than St Louis or Denver.

[DemReadingDU]

17. Graham Summers - Forget a Recession, The Empire is Crumbling

9/23/10 Graham Summers - Forget a Recession, The Empire is Crumbling

Let’s be honest. Forget recessions, forget even Depressions, the US is an empire in decline.

You can literally see it crumbling right in front of you. Just start looking at how people live, eat, and act on a day to day basis. Look at how our Government runs itself, how it manages our affairs, how it spends our tax Dollars. Look at how our justice system works, who it protects and who it punishes.

It’s all out there, right in the open for you to see. You don’t need an expert degree or some kind of advanced education. It’s OBVIOUS to anyone who bothers looking around.

The fact we don’t admit it doesn’t mean it’s not true.

According to David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff:

Wages & salaries are still down 3.7% from the prior peak;
Corporate profits are still down 20% from the peak;
Real GDP is still down 1.3% from the peak;
Industrial production is still down 7.2% from the peak;
Employment is still down 5.5% from the peak;
Retail sales are still down 4.5% from the peak;
Manufacturing orders are still down 22.1% from the peak;
Manufacturing shipments are still down 12.5% from the peak;
Exports are still down 9.2% from the peak;
Housing starts are still down 63.5% from the peak;
New home sales are still down 68.9% from the peak;
Existing home sales are still down 41.2% from the peak;
Non-residential construction is still down 35.7% from the peak.

The American Psychological Association reports that 73% of Americans cite money as a source of significant stress. Personal bankruptcies have fallen 8% month over month from July to August. However, August 2010 bankruptcies are up 6% from August 2009… so much for the recovery.

And yet, despite all of this, assumedly intelligent people write op-ed articles and appear on TV claiming that things are swell in the US, that we’re actually OK and that the recession is over. Some of these people even have advanced degrees or have won international prizes for economics.

more...
http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2010/09/graham-summers-forget-recession-empire.html

[Po_d Mainiac]

19. It's the APA's fault

The American Psychological Association reports that 73% of Americans cite money as a source of significant stress.

And if they weren't handing out so much Prozac, there would be a :FRSP: on every corner in Lower Manhattan and inside the Beltway

[Demeter]

25. Probably true. How Depressing.

[florida08]

20. have seen less 'downs' in a football game

[Dr.Phool]

27. You must have been watching the Browns.

[florida08]

36. close

jaguars

[Dr.Phool]

40. I might go up for the Browns-Jags game.

I went up two years ago when they played there. Our Browns Backers Club goes to all the nearby games.

[tclambert]

62. The Detroit Lions are regular Super Bowl

television viewers.

[Dr.Phool]

26. I cross posted this to a thread in GD.

[ozymandius]

76. Which thread?

If posted as an original thread then I would declare you a bad, bad man, Dr. Phool, and then offer my compliments.

[Roland99]

28. Bully!! Rally! Friday! yay!!!

Dow 10,726 +64 +0.60%
Nasdaq 2,354 +27 +1.16%
S&P 500 1,136 +11 +0.98%
GlobalDow 1,940 +17 +0.91%
Gold 1,300 +4 +0.30% **** wow
Oil 75.72 +0.54 +0.72%

[DemReadingDU]

31. +174

:crazy:

[hamerfan]

72. +198

:puke: :wtf: :shrug: :hide:

[TalkingDog]

35. This time it's different

This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0691142165?ie=UTF8&tag=urbansurvivar-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0691142165


No..... really......

[Roland99]

41. Intriguing tome.

[Festivito]

39. Debt: 09/22/2010 13,471,094,170,316.20 (DOWN 5,567,446,335.90) (Wed)

(Down a little. Good day.)
Biopsies hurt. But, OU leaves me with an Ow! Windy.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,970,779,433,653.84 + 4,500,314,736,662.36
DOWN 22,020,658.96 + DOWN 5,545,425,676.94

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.22 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,224.37 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.67, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 310,138,331 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $43,435.76.
A family of three owes $130,307.28. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 4,754,532,996.94.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,645,141,964.32.
The average for the last 33 days would be 3,313,765,422.11.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 245 reports in 357 days of FY2010 averaging 6.37B$ per report, 4.37B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 851 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
09/22/2010 13,471,094,170,316.20 BHO (UP 2,844,217,121,403.12 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,561,265,166,804.50 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,596,251,501,074.63 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
09/01/2010 -002,618,329,750.58 --
09/02/2010 +008,773,043,668.95 ------------*********
09/03/2010 +000,065,447,919.59 ------------*******
09/07/2010 +000,022,960,425.76 ------------******* Tue
09/08/2010 +000,399,922,819.12 ------------********
09/09/2010 +008,813,573,460.79 ------------*********
09/10/2010 -000,055,297,184.77 ----
09/13/2010 +000,091,299,524.00 ------------******* Mon
09/14/2010 +000,150,853,245.21 ------------********
09/15/2010 +064,417,149,283.94 ------------**********
09/16/2010 -036,646,694,679.28 -
09/17/2010 -000,203,034,896.34 ---
09/20/2010 +000,019,446,813.89 ------------******* Mon
09/21/2010 +000,509,875,602.04 ------------********
09/22/2010 -000,022,020,658.96 ----

43,718,195,593.36 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4550279&mesg_id=4550286

[Festivito]

86. Debt: 09/23/2010 13,463,477,025,087.58 (DOWN 7,617,145,228.62) (Thu)

(Down some. Good day.)
Addons, addons and addons lead to a busy long day.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,962,078,027,778.79 + 4,501,398,997,308.79
DOWN 8,701,405,875.05 + UP 1,084,260,646.43

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.22 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,224.30 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.67, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 310,144,977 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $43,410.27.
A family of three owes $130,230.81. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 4,356,466,924.18.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,339,957,975.21.
The average for the last 31 days would be 3,232,217,395.36.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 246 reports in 358 days of FY2010 averaging 6.32B$ per report, 4.34B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 850 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
09/23/2010 13,463,477,025,087.58 BHO (UP 2,836,599,976,174.50 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,553,648,021,575.80 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,584,026,614,176.45 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
09/02/2010 +008,773,043,668.95 ------------*********
09/03/2010 +000,065,447,919.59 ------------*******
09/07/2010 +000,022,960,425.76 ------------******* Tue
09/08/2010 +000,399,922,819.12 ------------********
09/09/2010 +008,813,573,460.79 ------------*********
09/10/2010 -000,055,297,184.77 ----
09/13/2010 +000,091,299,524.00 ------------******* Mon
09/14/2010 +000,150,853,245.21 ------------********
09/15/2010 +064,417,149,283.94 ------------**********
09/16/2010 -036,646,694,679.28 -
09/17/2010 -000,203,034,896.34 ---
09/20/2010 +000,019,446,813.89 ------------******* Mon
09/21/2010 +000,509,875,602.04 ------------********
09/22/2010 -000,022,020,658.96 ----
09/23/2010 -008,701,405,875.05 --

37,635,119,468.89 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4551520&mesg_id=4551773

[Festivito]

43. So, I don't understand the constant toons of recovery not looking like one.

I have trouble understanding why we are so fixated on the announcement of the recession bottoming out, i.e. the recession ended, such that we denounce the end of the recession as a joke.

When we hit the low point, we hit a low point, the point at which things are worst.

So, why does it not look like a recovery? Because things are at their FREAKING worst!

Now, the weakness in my thinking might be that it was a year ago that the turnaround began, but, the question should be about how long do we stay at the bottom -- not jumping to the conclusion that we should be seeing improvement.

So, I don't understand the constant toons of recovery not looking like one.

Aside: Must leave the wi-fi shortly.

EDIT: HAd to reword a thought.

[Demeter]

45. Well, Is It a Recovery Or Isn't It?

I think if you took a scientific survey, 99% of the world would say ISN'T.

Of course, if you restricted the survey to economists...

[Festivito]

84. Is this a word game with the word recovery meaning recovered?

No, we've not recovered.

I don't know who would be saying that we have recovered.

I can understand people referring to the recovery invoking a future perfect verb tense evoking hopeful feelings about a projected recovery.

If our economy is likened to a car driven down a ravine, and now we've righted that car, turned it around facing up the ravine, got it started, and started moving -- albeit, moving ever so slowly -- can we talk about the car's recovery from that ravine even though it is not yet back up to the road and is in fact still at the lowest point it ever reached? Does recovery describe turning a car around and getting it to slog through the mud after it fell into hole sputtering while threatening to fall even further.

Do we really disagree here, now, with this word?

[Po_d Mainiac]

78. This chart is of total US debt

as a % of GDP. This chart captures all of the debt in the United States carried by households, corporations, and the government.

The raw data is here
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/current/accessible/l1.htm

Very little debt has been pared, meaning the US is in no shape to carry forth. Remove Federal spending and :nuke:
If the Gov't doesn't stop borrowing to spend, same outcome :nuke:

[Festivito]

85. I see a series of implications I disagree with.

I see the main concern you post that enlarging the debt leads to :nuke: destruction. I understand this concern, however, I look at Japan having a national debt twice their GDP aside from their personal countryman's debts. I see that people are still coming to lend us money, people who will want it back someday. And, I see that Obama's first budget will see 200B$ less debt increase than last year's Bush budget that Obama was left to finish. And, this despite less income from Social Security's usual extra money supply.

So, I don't see the destruction you imply as terrifyingly probable.

The chart you show does not correspond to the raw data you reference. It has no apparent category for national debt. And, even that raw data despite being from a .gov website has a few problems of its own, such as missing "Commercial banking; credit market instruments; liability" in its totals, which leads to a question of where are the 645-trillion dollars in credit default swaps, et. al. that are not represented in the table at all?

Certainly we have not recovered yet. But, why cater to cartoons that imply that someone says that we have and then makes fun of those same people, not as the strawmen they created, but making fun of the very people who have worked hard to put us back on the road again.

[Po_d Mainiac]

87. WTF?

Certainly we have not recovered yet. But, why cater to cartoons that imply that someone says that we have and then makes fun of those same people, not as the strawmen they created, but making fun of the very people who have worked hard to put us back on the road again.

[Festivito]

88. Indeed, my sentiment. Thanks. /nt

[Po_d Mainiac]

89. WTF.... as in WTF are u talking about?

[Festivito]

90. I was expressing WTF about your WTF by calling your WTF post: my sentiment.

My sentence was reproduced, but there was no discernible communication of a point at which WTF hit. Or, whether or not the rest was understood.

Responding to a WTF, when hardly knowing anything about the audience member, you, is a WTF for myself as well.

All that catches me over and over is the spelling of Samual. And, I stymie myself at that as well. Of all the people to spell wrong.

I cannot imagine who might one be that would do so.

[Po_d Mainiac]

91. your statement/s make no cents (PI)

[Festivito]

94. Not even a penny's worth, I guess. /nt

[Demeter]

46. Ladies and Gentlemen, It is Officially Friday, and the end of the month

and since I've been having one of those shot-from-a-cannon weeks, I need a theme/artist/fetish for the WEE.

Anything seasonal, topical, logical, available--that I might have at least passing acquaintance with?

How about cats? We've done dogs twice...and there's a musical!

[Dr.Phool]

48. Worst musical ever.

Even worse than Miss Saigon.

But, don't miss Le Mis!

[Demeter]

49. The Kid Thinks Your Dog Is Cute, by the way

Worst musical ever? I don't know about that...

[Warpy]

51. It was bloody awful, wasn't it?

Too bad they couldn't manage to restrict the singing of "Memories" to competent singers over 40. It's grotesque when some 15 year old kid tries to belt it out.

[Demeter]

54. It was a musical for fans of CGI, computers and robotics

In other words, nerds. And their girlfriends.

[Po_d Mainiac]

52. Ozy posts greenscam porn, and you want to talk pussy for the weekend? n/t

Foliage is turning in these parts...The corn/harvest moon was full last night :shrug:

[Demeter]

53. 90F and the trees are green as the grass.

The gods must be crazy. Meow!

[bread_and_roses]

57. I think "The Gods Must Be Crazy" would be a great theme

for WE - though not exactly seasonal. Seasonal ... my next seasonal suggestion would be "Something Wicked This Way Comes" for Samhain, but that's aways away

[MattSh]

59. Well, Springsteen's birthday was Sept 23...

I could contribute a few things to that ~ IF ~ I was around for this weekend.

Going away. Yay!

[Demeter]

63. Next year, then

I know nothing about him, either.

[ozymandius]

77. For the life of me I cannot conjure one melody from Cats.

I suggest something else like "Hair."

[Papa Boule]

47. This is... interesting

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/visual-case-study-hft-accumulation-perfection

[Demeter]

50. Horrifying

Computers are doing all the trading. No people involved.

[Papa Boule]

55. And if a "sell" signal were to be triggered in all those computers at once. . .

. . .

[ozymandius]

80. Nothing real increases at a 45º angle.

Those look like Madoff numbers. Increases like this attracted the attention of those who knew 45º chart lines are fiction.

[TheWatcher]

56. Meanwhile Back in Reality.

Maybe a cooler head needs to put some perspective on this. I don't think my head exactly qualifies, but since everywhere outside this thread is projectile-drooling insane today, I will give it a shot.

The Baltic Dry Index is not confirming growth, The Unemployment Numbers were Horrible Yesterday, and as usual, no one is paying attention to the continued devaluation of the Dollar.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

If you look at the silly action in the Markets, we may be in the grip of an even worse Mania than 1998.

None of it makes sense, there is no fundamental justification for it, and it's going to end badly just like that bubble did.

This is nothing more than a MASSIVE Liquidity play by The Fed (POMO, etc.) to preserve the Status Quo, and a HFT Circle Jerk that has nothing to do with reality.

This sick, manipulated Casino, through Massively Programmed Perception management by the Media and the Government, has BECOME the economy in the eyes of most Americans, and, despite the fact there is not a shred of evidence or reality to support such a notion, they use it as the SOLE indicator to manage their psyche and perspective about the health of said Economy.

An Economy which has become nothing more than a gargantuan backroom momentum Gambling Room, a corrupt Mafia Numbers game fueled by HFT Computers, and an out of control Fed with an even MORE out of control Monetary Policy.

All over DU and the Internet today, sheep are gaggling, gurgling, and stumbling all over themselves to figure out how to get in on the frenzy, exhibiting unadulterated, historical, and hysterical desperation to figure out what to "Invest" in.

The one thing they aren't considering is an investment in the one thing that is critical for their survival at this point, and it's absolutely free, and requires no Capital commitment of any kind.

Common Sense.

A CHILD would know this is all sensationalist, Propagandist Bullshit, but America seems to be suffering from a terminal mental illness that is probably going to be cause of it's demise even more so than TPTB leading the way over the cliff.

We are at a frighteningly historical precipice of cognitive dissonance that has likely not been seen in human history.

One that makes the Last Days of Rome look Sane and Orderly, and the "Good" Germans of the 1930's look radical and anarchist.

The country itself has become a sad, corrupt Casino that offers nothing but rigged Parlor Games and False Hopes and Dreams of the cruelest kind, a lot of glitzy lights, noisy atmosphere, and almost nothing in the way of substance. It's citizens pouring the last of their hope and treasure into rigged slot machines, hoping for a big time result so they can "get theirs and fuck everybody else"

It's amazing to see all the delusion today. Truly breathtaking.

But in the end, maybe instead of looking on it with disdain and disgust, we should shake our heads with pity and accept that maybe this is better for them.

If they understood where we truly are and what is coming, they likely couldn't handle it.

Stay Safe Marketeers.

We are too far across the Rubicon now.

We probably couldn't make it back even if we wanted to.

No reason to get excited
The thief he kindly spoke
There are many here among us
Who feel that life is but a joke

But you and I we've been through that
And this is not our fate
So let us stop talking falsely now
The hour's getting late.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZTPsrcfQSE&feature=related

[Po_d Mainiac]

58. What they ain't investing in is the U$D..It's crapping the sheets again

BoJ has lost half of loss they bought with $23B in 7 trading days.

The U$D is back to being a carry-trade currency, not one of safety.

[tclambert]

65. Invest in Common Sense?

Intriguing. But where would I find it for sale? And how would I ever hope to recognize it (having never been acquainted with it myself)? How would I tell it from the fake crap that Teabaggers and Sarah Palin and Fox News claim is Common Sense?

[DemReadingDU]

67. Next crash coming soon?

Too much mania out there for me.

[Dr.Phool]

69. It's getting nutz all right.

All that drooling is going to be a real bitch to clean up. But, when you look at the droolers, I sometimes wish I was still in the bridge selling business. Some people will buy anything.

[Roland99]

74. I was curious about the Baltic Dry Index the minute I read the Durable Orders news.

[Roland99]

73. At the close - hope you dropped your shorts

Dow 10,860 +198 +1.86%
Nasdaq 2,381 +54 +2.33%
S&P 500 1,149 +24 +2.12%
GlobalDow 1,953 +31 +1.60%
Gold 1,298 +1 +0.09%
Oil 76.55 +1.37 +1.82%

[Roland99]

75. Bernanke defends economic models that missed crisis

Bernanke defends economic models that missed crisis
More work needed on how financial sector impacts growth
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bernanke-defends-models-that-missed-credit-crunch-2010-09-24

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke on Friday defended new Keynesian economic models even though they failed to predict the financial crisis.

“Although economists have much to learn from this crisis....I think that calls for a radical reworking of the field go too far,” Bernanke said in a speech at Princeton University, where he was a professor for two decades.

Standard economic models, such as the “workhorse” new Keynesian model, did not predict the crisis. Bernanke himself initially said the subprime crisis wouldn’t spread throughout the broader economy.

...

Bernanke said the financial crisis was an old-fashioned bank run with different actors. This time, the role of depositors lining up to withdraw funds from a bank was played by money-market funds, Bernanke said.

:wtf: :wtf:

[ozymandius]

79. He is a Ph.D. Economist and if the Chairman of the Federal Reserve and could not figure this out?

It sounds like someone stuck the adjective Keynesian as a qualifier for this screwed-up model just to discredit Keynes.

[DemReadingDU]

81. Denninger has been writing prolifically for the past few days

Bernanke: I Am An Ass And A Looter
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=167434

Anatomy Of A Fed-Induced Bubble (Micro / Macro Level, NFLX)
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=167407


more at his blog
http://market-ticker.org/

[Roland99]

83. I thought the same thing, ozy.

[Roland99]

82. Government seizes three wholesale credit unions

Government seizes three wholesale credit unions
Credit unions must pay fees to cover toxic mortgage losses
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/credit-unions-to-cover-losses-on-50-billion-pool-2010-09-24?dist=afterbell%3Flink%3DMW-FB

The federal government on Friday seized three undercapitalized wholesale credit unions and unveiled a package of regulations to have the industry absorb losses on a $50 billion portfolio of toxic mortgage securities.

The seizure on Friday of Warrenville, Ill.-based United Corporate Federal Credit Union; Southwest Corporate Federal Credit Union of Plano, Tex.; and Constitution Corporate Federal Credit Union of Wallingford, Conn., takes to five the number of wholesale credit unions under government control.

In March 2009, the National Credit Union Administration seized U.S. Central Federal Credit Union and Western Corporate Federal Credit Union.

These credit unions, known as corporate credit unions, don’t serve retail clients but provide liquidity and payment services and other facilities to traditional credit unions.