STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday August 31

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday August 31, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 30, 2010

Dow 10,009.73 -140.92 (-1.39%)
Nasdaq 2,119.97 -33.66 (-1.59%)
S&P 500 1,048.92 -15.67 (-1.47%)
Gold future... 1,238 -1.20 (-0.10%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.53 -.00 (-0.08%)
30-Year Bond 3.58 +0.00 (+0.06%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Handy Links - Market Data and News:Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
Credit Union Tracker    Daily Job Cuts

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong      Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666    The Stand-Up Economist

Handy Links - Government Issues:
LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

09:00 Case-Shiller 20-city Index Jun
Briefing.com 3.0%
Consensus 3.1%
Prior 4.61%

09:45 Chicago PMI Aug
Briefing.com 58.0
Consensus 57.0
Prior 62.3

10:00 Consumer Confidence Aug
Briefing.com 49.5
Consensus 50.0
Prior 50.40

14:00 Minutes of FOMC Meeting 08/10

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[OnlinePoker]

34. Numbers are in

Case-Shiller - better than expected at 4.23% but still down from last month
Chicago PMI - worse than expected and down from last month at 56.7 (though anything above 50 indicates an expanding manufacturing phase)
Consumer Confidence - better than expected at 53.5

[ozymandius]

2. Oil falls below $74 as global stock markets slump

SINGAPORE – Oil prices fell below $74 a barrel Tuesday in Asia, extending losses from the previous session as global stock markets slump after a disappointing U.S. consumer spending number.

Oil traders have been following closely global stock markets as a barometer of overall investor sentiment. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 1.4 percent Monday after the Commerce Department said consumer spending in the U.S. rose just 0.4 percent in July.

In other Nymex trading in September contracts, heating oil fell 1.82 cents to $2.007 a gallon and gasoline slid 1.15 cents to $1.923 a gallon. Natural gas for October delivery rose 2.6 cents to $3.838 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

3. Global equities rocked by US economic fears

LONDON (AFP) – World stock markets sank heavily on Tuesday as investors shunned risky assets amid renewed fears over the United States economy, while Tokyo also dived on concern over the soaring yen, dealers said.

In morning European deals, London shed 1.05 percent as British investors returned from a long weekend after a public holiday on Monday. Frankfurt slid 0.79 percent, Paris dived 1.00 percent and Madrid dipped 1.35 percent.

The Tokyo stock market plunged 3.55 percent to 8,824.06 points -- its lowest closing level since April 2009 -- wiping out Monday's gains, as worries over a strong yen hit exporters.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100831/bs_afp/financeeconomyworldstocksforex

[ozymandius]

5. World stocks fall on economic worries

LONDON (Reuters) – World stocks fell on Tuesday in markets dominated by concerns the U.S. economy is sliding back into recession, prompting further flows into safe-haven assets.

The yen - a favorite for carry trades at times of economic stress - hovered back near 15-year high against the dollar after investors brushed off Japan's attempt to weaken the currency, yields on benchmark German government bonds hit record highs and the Swiss franc soared against the euro and dollar.

In Europe, the FTSEurofirst 300 (.FTEU3) index dropped 1.1 percent and the Thomson Reuters Peripheral Eurozone Countries Index (.TRXFLDPIPU) fell 1.3 percent. "If you look at all the noise, all the volatility and all the nervousness, it's clear that this market has one major fear at the moment and that's the double dip," said Philippe Gijsels, head of research at BNP Paribas Fortis Global Markets in Brussels.

Yields on benchmark 10-year German Bunds hit record lows at 2.085 percent, while those on 10-year U.S. Treasuries slipped 2 basis points to 2.5143 percent, hovering near 18-month low.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100831/bs_nm/us_markets_global

[ozymandius]

4. Bernanke to address financial crisis inquiry panel

Bernanke will testify Thursday before the bipartisan Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission. The panel was created by Congress to investigate the roots of the financial panic that rocked Wall Street and the global economy starting in 2008.

Bernanke and other officials considered the banks "too big to fail" because they feared the banks' failures could spread panic and bring down the broader financial system. The government rescued insolvent companies such as Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch and American International Group Inc. by brokering their sale to competitors or putting them under government control.

Bernanke was a key architect of the bailouts. He worked closely with former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, who was president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York at the time. Geithner and Paulson already have testified before the FCIC.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100830/ap_on_bi_ge/us_bernanke_crisis_panel

[ozymandius]

6. Japan Policy Tinkering Leaves ’Huge’ Risk to Growth (Update2)

Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s limited policy response yesterday to risks facing economic growth after a surge in the yen may leave the recovery dependent on overseas spending.

Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa and his board expanded a bank-loan program by 10 trillion yen ($118 billion) after an emergency meeting in the wake of the yen reaching a 15- year high. Prime Minister Naoto Kan pledged to channel 920 billion yen toward steps aimed at buttressing domestic demand.

Japanese consumer prices fell for a 17th month in July, a report showed last week. Prices excluding fresh food dropped 1.1 percent from a year earlier. GDP growth slowed to 0.4 percent at an annualized pace in the second quarter from a 4.4 percent rate in the previous three months. The figures, released earlier this month, also showed that China’s economy surpassed Japan’s as the world’s second biggest, behind the U.S., for the quarter.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alu_oRV._Ouw&pos=6

---

Japan is locked into a deflationary cycle. Oddly - the warnings that were ignored over rescuing TBTF and Fed policy decisions bring the U.S. to a similar scenario. We now approach Japan's fate of two lost decades of economic progress, zombie banks and a healthy rate of inflation.

[ozymandius]

7. Maybe They’ll Listen Now

From The Big Picture:

We have ranted and raved about the risks of electronic trading for years. Our concerns have been voiced to cab drivers, investors, CME officials and the family dog. The glazed looks and indifferent responses come from the belief that we are just disgruntled “floor guys” who can’t adjust to the modern world. Nothing could be further from the truth. Now that Alan Ableson has highlighted the dangers in BARRON’s, we expect a more serious investigation.

The title of his missive is “Stacked Deck,” not a start that bolsters confidence in what’s to follow.

I advise paying attention to two quotes from different analysts in the article.

1) “The long run not only doesn’t count, it doesn’t exist.”
2) “HFT provides an ILLUSION of almost limitless liquidity, liquidity that can vanish abruptly if a few platforms take a break.”

We have called this the danger of confusing volume with liquidity. The focus since the “flash crash” remains on equity products. We continue to fear the absorption of massive Treasury supply is the financial tinder of the next forest fire. Large foreign central bank holdings are flood waters held back by an artificial dam.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/08/maybe-theyll-listen-now/

[ozymandius]

8. The Revenge of Main Street

The Revenge of Main Street
by gjohnsit

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time." - Abraham Lincoln

Wall Street has a problem.

You see Wall Street functions much like Las Vegas. Their immense wealth depends on the continuing myth that their games aren't rigged, and the willful denial of reality by the suckers.

Just like Vegas, no one wants to talk about the money they lost playing the stock market. Instead, all you here about is how everyone is getting rich at the blackjack table. If you aren't getting obscenely wealthy betting on interest rate spreads then there must be something wrong with you.

 Against the backdrop of unusually low equity trading volumes, even for a typically sleepy August, continued strong flows out of equities into bonds, and high-profile hedge funds shutting down, a bitter truth is dawning for investment professionals. 
  Namely, that the ranks of retail investors, commonly derided as "dumb money" by the Street, have made the right call on US equity and bond markets in 2010.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/8/30/897474/-The-Revenge-of-Main-Street

[AnneD]

40. And they wonder why...

the small investors are leaving in droves.

[ozymandius]

9. Blocking Stimulus for Political Gains ?

This idea is nothing new around here. But it is intriguing to see it explored.

From Ritholtz:

Peter Goodman has a longish article in the NYT Week in Review, What Can Be Done to Cure the Ailing Economy?.

It is notable for a few reasons: Great chart porn (see right), a few good quotes (see above), and a bombshell from Bruce Barlett, the Treasury economist in the first Bush administration.

Bartlett has become a pariah to the Republican party, saying out loud what few people dare to even think. He notes that we are already in gridlock, with the GOP deploying a blocking strategy. He thinks nothing substantive is going to change for a simple reason:

“Clearly, a weak economy in 2012 will be very good for whoever the Republican presidential candidate is. It’s hard to see how the Republicans lose by blocking stimulus.”

That is a pretty damning accusation. Bartlett is essentially arguing that the anti-stimulus crowd is doing so not for ideological beliefs, but for political advantage. He is implying their goal is to keep the economy weak in order to prevail politically.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/08/blocking-stimulus-for-political-gains/

[Capn Sunshine]

46. Do we see any connection between stopping unemployment checks and Economic strength Q2?

Because to me, it's no coincidence that things slowed markedly right after the fucking republicans refused to extend benefits for a few weeks there.

Keep Bush's tax cuts? Where's the jobs they created? Suddenly, now they are supposed to create jobs? :shrug:

[ozymandius]

10. William Black: Theoclassical Law and Economics Makes the Law an Ass

One of the great advantages of blogs is spurring informative debate. The debates also tend to morph as commentators develop their arguments. I want to address the initial and the morphed debate that Yves’ column kicked off: The Continued Stealth Takeover of the Courts. Yves warned that corporate CEOs are making concerted efforts to direct political contributions in a manner designed to elect judges that will champion CEOs’ interests. Note that I stress that the person that controls the corporation, typically the CEO, is the key actor and that the CEO commonly maximizes what he believes will be his interests at the expense of the corporation and its shareholders, creditors, and employees. This harms the nation. Yves’ blog prompted responses that eventually morphed into a debate about the role of law and economics in judicial decision making and discussion of what students are being taught in law and economics.

The Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision allows businesses to make unlimited political contributions to judges and politicians. When judges are elected, the need for these contributions inherently turns judges into politicians. Sympathetic judges are corrupt businesses’ most valuable allies. Corporations and their senior officials can commit civil or criminal wrongs with impunity if their case is assigned to a friendly judge. The Robber Barons often had judges on their payrolls. Judges can serve a corporation as both a shield and a sword. They can declare statutes and regulations unlawful. They can issue favorable decisions when corporations sue their critics, which can intimidate, tie up, or even bankrupt the critics.

Ozy here: Professor Black now illuminates the impact of the John M. Olin Foundation on the education of future judges and business attorneys in their sacred, perverse form of Austrian economics.

Here are two examples that illustrate how false, but so influential and harmful these Austrian nostrums have become through teaching falsified economics to thousands of lawyers. Austrian law and economics is based on suppositions that have long been known to be false. Dickens famously had Mr. Bumble (in Oliver Twist) respond to being informed that the law supposed him to be responsible for his wife’s behavior by remarking that if the law supposed such an absurdity then “the law is a ass.” The dominant law and economics text on corporate law for years was by Easterbrook and Fischel. Judge Easterbrook is a colleague of Judge Posner on the 7th Circuit and Fischel was for a time Dean of the University of Chicago’s law school. They assert that “a rule against fraud is not an essential or even necessarily an important ingredient of securities markets” (1991: 283). Their book was written after Professor Fischel, as a consultant to three of the most notorious control frauds of the 1980s, tried out their theories in the real world – and found that they failed catastrophically. Fischel praised the worst frauds. Fischel & Easterbrook did not disclose to their readers that their theories were falsified in the real world. Note how extreme their claim was, the utter certainty of the claim, and the lack of any data supporting the claim – a claim they knew to be false. The taught students that, in the context of securities, we did not need:

1. Any laws against securities fraud
2. The FBI and the Department of Justice
3. The SEC
4. Any rules against fraud
5. Any ability to bring civil suits

I encourage you to read the whole offering. - ozymandius

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/08/william-black-theoclassical-law-and-economics-makes-the-law-an-ass.html

[Dr.Phool]

16. The Czechago Law School.

If only Alphonso Capone had seen fit to endow a university to teach the law from his perspective. It couldn't have turned out any worse than these faith-based frauds that are populating our courts and law firms. And , it explains a lot of the ridiculous anti-regulatory rhetoric flying around Washington these days.

It also explains a remark made by Alan Greenspan to Brooksley Born, when they met for lunch after she was appointed to head the CFTC. "You probably believe in prosecuting fraud, don't you?" "It's not necessary, because the market will root it out".

It also explains why this administration is populated with the likes of Summers, Geithner, Goolsby, and Bernanke. And there's no room for an Elizabeth Warren, or a William Black, or a Brooksley Born in it.

It's a continuing criminal enterprise, headed up by a former University Of Czechago law professor. I forget his name, but it's Baruch, or Bagoof, or Begat, or something like that.

[Dr.Phool]

11. Good morning Oz.

Computer was down for a couple of days, (self-inflicted rebuild).

[ozymandius]

12. Good morning.

:donut: :donut: :donut:
I read your account of a very ambitious build. Good luck with the new cabling.

My time here this morning is done. Work calls.

:hi:

[Roland99]

14. Gave an early rec today for once

had to take my daughter to school so she could be there early enough to get into a guidance counselor's office with her schedule changes. Needs to switch 1 or 2 classes and hoping to switch another. School is crazy busy with the growth spurt going on.

[Demeter]

36. Boy, You Were on a Roll Today, Ozy

Such a delicious selection of doom and gloom...

[xchrom]

13. recommend

[Roland99]

15. Futures - PIL in danger

S&P 500 1,041 -4.60 -0.44%
DOW 9,947 -32.00 -0.32%
NASDAQ 1,759 -9.75 -0.55%

[Dr.Phool]

18. PIL

It's all in their heads.

[DemReadingDU]

19. what is PIL?

I can't remember

[Dr.Phool]

22. Psychologically Important Level.

Or Psychiatric, or Psychopathic. Something like that.

[Roland99]

23. or...

Pseudo or phony or pretend or ....


:)

[Dr.Phool]

25. Yeah, that's the ticket......

[Tansy_Gold]

31. Panic Imminent Level????

Well, a girl can hope. . . .






TG, NTY

[DemReadingDU]

32. Could be, it's crazy in the markets

:crazy:

[DemReadingDU]

27. Thanks!

I can never remember that, must bookmark!

[Festivito]

17. Debt: 08/27/2010 13,375,222,710,985.08 (DOWN 967,028,708.53) (Fri)

(Up a little. Good day.)
The wrong Y when it comes to Flint.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,849,570,008,347.77 + 4,525,652,702,637.31
UP 56,877,341.30 + DOWN 1,023,906,049.83

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,226.17 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.68, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,965,531 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $43,150.68.
A family of three owes $129,452.03. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 4,872,608,596.23.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,898,086,876.98.
The average for the last 31 days would be 3,772,342,139.01.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 228 reports in 331 days of FY2010 averaging 6.43B$ per report, 4.43B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 877 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/27/2010 13,375,222,710,985.08 BHO (UP 2,748,345,662,072.00 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,465,393,707,473.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,615,917,532,410.14 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
08/09/2010 -000,264,966,096.92 --- Mon
08/10/2010 +001,721,061,315.43 ------------*********
08/11/2010 +000,095,029,920.46 ------------*******
08/12/2010 +008,430,031,924.23 ------------*********
08/13/2010 -000,288,829,216.29 ---
08/16/2010 +038,527,213,023.81 ------------********** Mon
08/17/2010 +000,086,946,367.61 ------------*******
08/18/2010 +000,214,319,067.84 ------------********
08/19/2010 +008,231,027,173.23 ------------*********
08/20/2010 -000,497,978,282.78 ---
08/23/2010 -000,107,792,107.60 --- Mon
08/24/2010 +000,493,029,883.18 ------------********
08/25/2010 +000,455,932,262.67 ------------********
08/26/2010 +015,329,518,146.29 ------------**********
08/27/2010 +000,056,877,341.30 ------------*******

72,481,420,722.46 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4522159&mesg_id=4522165

[Festivito]

52. Debt: 08/30/2010 13,369,841,967,694.39 (DOWN 5,380,743,290.69) (Mon)

(DOWN 5,380,743,290.69) (Mon)
(Down a little. Good day.)
Watered plants. I hope they don't die.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,849,476,780,656.75 + 4,520,365,187,037.64
DOWN 93,227,691.02 + DOWN 5,287,515,599.67

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,225.96 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.68, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,985,470 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $43,130.54.
A family of three owes $129,391.63. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 6,005,226,854.74.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,403,833,026.81.
The average for the last 31 days would be 4,261,773,896.91.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 229 reports in 334 days of FY2010 averaging 6.38B$ per report, 4.37B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 874 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/30/2010 13,369,841,967,694.39 BHO (UP 2,742,964,918,781.31 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,460,012,964,182.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,595,523,149,480.99 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
08/10/2010 +001,721,061,315.43 ------------*********
08/11/2010 +000,095,029,920.46 ------------*******
08/12/2010 +008,430,031,924.23 ------------*********
08/13/2010 -000,288,829,216.29 ---
08/16/2010 +038,527,213,023.81 ------------********** Mon
08/17/2010 +000,086,946,367.61 ------------*******
08/18/2010 +000,214,319,067.84 ------------********
08/19/2010 +008,231,027,173.23 ------------*********
08/20/2010 -000,497,978,282.78 ---
08/23/2010 -000,107,792,107.60 --- Mon
08/24/2010 +000,493,029,883.18 ------------********
08/25/2010 +000,455,932,262.67 ------------********
08/26/2010 +015,329,518,146.29 ------------**********
08/27/2010 +000,056,877,341.30 ------------*******
08/30/2010 -000,093,227,691.02 ---- Mon

72,653,159,128.36 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4523393&mesg_id=4523446

[DemReadingDU]

20. Steve Keen: Bernanke's blind spot

8/30/10 Bernanke's blind spot

Bernanke’s recent Jackson Hole speech didn’t contain one reference to the key force driving the American economy right now: private sector deleveraging (here’s the previous year’s speech for comparison’s sake). The reason the US economy is not recovering from this crisis is because all sectors of American society took on too much debt during the false boom of the last two decades, and they are now busily getting themselves out of debt any way they can.

Debt reduction is now the real story of the American economy, just as real story behind the apparent free lunch of the last two decades was rising debt. The secret that has completely eluded Bernanke is that aggregate demand is the sum of GDP plus the change in debt. So when debt is rising demand exceeds what it could be on the basis of earned incomes alone, and when debt is falling the opposite happens.

I’ve been banging the drum on this for years now, but it’s a hard idea to communicate because it’s so alien to the way most economists (and many people) think.

For a start, it involves a redefinition of aggregate demand. Most economists are conditioned to think of commodity markets and asset markets as two separate spheres, but my definition lumps them together: aggregate demand is the sum of expenditure on goods and services, plus the net amount of money spent buying assets (shares and property) on the secondary markets. This expenditure is financed by the sum of what we earn from productive activities (largely wages and profits) plus the change in our debt levels. So total demand in the economy is the sum of GDP plus the change in debt.

Keen gives an example how he explains the situation...
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Bernankes-blind-spot-pd20100830-8T8HE?OpenDocument&src=sph
or
Charts are easier to read on Keen's article on his website
http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2010/08/29/what-bernanke-doesn%E2%80%99t-understand-about-deflation/



Steve Keen’s Debtwatch website
Analysing the Global Debt Bubble

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/

[DemReadingDU]

21. Karl Denninger: Steve Keen Nails It

8/30/10 Steve Keen Nails It by Karl Denninger

There are people in the economics world who "get it"....

Debt reduction is now the real story of the American economy, just as real story behind the apparent free lunch of the last two decades was rising debt. The secret that has completely eluded Bernanke is that aggregate demand is the sum of GDP plus the change in debt. So when debt is rising demand exceeds what it could be on the basis of earned incomes alone, and when debt is falling the opposite happens.

Ding ding ding ding.

The entire mantra of "private debt doesn't matter" is of course idiotic, but it forms the premise upon which Krugman, Bernanke and many others try to labor. Worse, some of them go a step further and say that government debt doesn't matter. This is how you get charts that look like this:

But of course as anyone who has ever been up to their eyeballs in debt knows, it most certainly does matter, because the amount of debt you can carry is finite - no matter who (or what) you are.

more...
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=165632

Note: Dennigner has re-designed his website. Comments are now embedded in his editorial Ticker.
Look for the "Discussion below (registration required to post)"


Edit: Unable to post Denninger's Nominal GDP, Spending Deficit, Real GDP chart. Click the link to see it.

[Roland99]

26. Time to cut everyone's credit limit. But what gets me is I wonder how much cash companies have

instead of paying their employees a better wage, covering health insurance, matching 401(k) contribution, and paying out dividends.

Apple has, what, $45 Billion in cash?


http://jeffnolan.com/wp/2010/08/20/cash-rich-companies/

It is estimated that there is as much as $2 trillion in cash on the balance sheets of public companies in the U.S. alone. The conventional wisdom of Keynesians has been that the unprecedented level of spending that the Federal government has undertaken would prime the economic pump which would create demand that would spur companies to use their strong balance sheets to accelerate job creation.

This clearly hasn’t happened.

Instead what appears to be happening is that companies are using their strong cash positions to embark on a new age of M&A, pay down debt, and buy back stocks… none of which will lead to job creation.

[Tansy_Gold]

29. That's why I've been less than enthusiastic in my praise of Krugman

He seems to have focused far too much on the wrong importance of debt -- meaning he says it's okay to have lots of it if it "stimulates the economy" -- without (apparently) understanding what "the economy" really is, which is jobs that actually produce something.

Other than that, this pretty much echoes what's been said here on SMW for about two, two and a half years or so, three, five, ten years or so. Non?




TG, who yes has been stuck in yet another glitch from the software conversion from hell that started in December 2009 and this time they're telling us it's the last one. . . . . .again. . . . . .

[Demeter]

37. It Ain't a Spot, Niether

Bernanke is blinded by his own brilliance (or groping around in the dark of his ignorance).

We are so freaking doomed...

[mbperrin]

24. Very nice toon.

Going up on the classroom wall this morning.

[DemReadingDU]

28. Stoneleigh Presentations

Reposting from last week...

For anyone who would like to hear a financial presentation by Stoneleigh (real name: Nicole Foss)
http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com /

Per comments at The Automatic Earth, Stoneleigh's presentation comes highly recommended. It is appx 2 hours long, followed by an hour for questions.


Stoneleigh's itinerary...

"I'll be going from Ohio to Michigan, to Wisconsin to Minnesota and then further south. I have invitations to Iowa, Kansas, Missouri and Oklahoma, and I'll be speaking at the ASPO conference in Washington DC in early October. In a different direction, people also asked me to come to Montana, Wyoming and California. I'm trying to turn all that into some kind of sensible itinerary at the moment."
http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2010/08/august-26-2010-in-america-housing-is.html?showComment=1282880183818#c577451562287170505


Tentative Schedule...

Canada
- September 2, Ottawa, Auditorium Public Library, 7 pm

USA
Ohio
- September 9, North Olmsted, Public Library, 5.30 pm

Michigan
September 10, Chelsea, Michigan Friends Center, 7 pm
September 13, Muskegon, MAREC, 6.30 pm
September 14, Wayland, Union High School, 7 pm
September 15, Middleville, Thornapple Township Hall, 7 pm
September 16, Grand Rapids, Community College Spectrum Theater, 7 pm
September 17, Hastings, Pierce Cedar Creek Institute, 6.30 pm
September 18, Bear Lake, Lions Club, 1 pm

Additional bookings available.
For all information and bookings (dates available US September-October 2010),
contact StoneleighTravels at Gmail dot com


Here is a short interview where Stoneleigh discusses deflation, Ponzis, energy, and more.

Click this link from the KBOO-FM server to download podcast to hear Stoneleigh's radio interview in Portland
(28 minutes, 26 MB download)
http://www.kboo.org/node/19246

[DemReadingDU]

30. Financial crisis commission examining Wachovia

Financial crisis commission examining Wachovia
By Rick Rothacker
Posted: Tuesday, Aug. 31, 2010

The panel investigating the U.S. financial meltdown will put Charlotte's Wachovia Corp. under the microscope on Wednesday.

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission on Monday said former Wachovia chief executive Bob Steel will be one of the witnesses at a hearing in Washington. He will be joined by Scott Alvarez, the Federal Reserve System's general counsel, and John Corston, acting deputy director of supervision and consumer protection at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

Former Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. CEO Dick Fuld is slated to testify in an afternoon session. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair will headline a second hearing on Thursday.

The 10-member bipartisan commission is empowered to "examine the causes, domestic and global, of the current financial and economic crisis in the United States." Wednesday's hearing is entitled "Too Big to Fail: Expectations and Impact of Extraordinary Government Intervention and the role of Systemic Risk in the Financial Crisis."

At the peak of the financial crisis in fall 2008, the government brokered the sale of most of struggling Wachovia's assets to Citigroup Inc. Days later, Wells Fargo & Co. trumped the deal and now owns the East Coast banking giant. Wachovia hasn't been the subject of a previous hearing. Bank of America Corp. CEO Brian Moynihan testified in January.

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2010/08/30/1655933/financial-crisis-commission-examining.html

[Roland99]

33. 9:35: slippin' on a banana peel

Dow 9,973 -37 -0.37%
Nasdaq 2,107 -12 -0.59%
S&P 500 1,044 -5 -0.49%
GlobalDow 1,767 -17 -0.97%
Oil 74.36 -0.34 -0.46%
Gold 1,248 +9 +0.70%

[Roland99]

35. The markets get knocked down, but they get up again.

Never gonna keep them down....

[Demeter]

38. Like this?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LODkVkpaVQA

[DemReadingDU]

39. Chronicling America: Historic American Newspapers

Welcome to Chronicling America, enhancing access to America's historic newspapers. This site allows you to search and view newspaper pages from 1860-1922 and find information about American newspapers published between 1690-present. Chronicling America is sponsored jointly by the National Endowment for the Humanities and the Library of Congress as part of the National Digital Newspaper Program (NDNP).

View newspaper pages from 1860 to 1922 from the following states: Arizona, California, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Kansas, Kentucky, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Texas, Utah, Virginia and Washington.


http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/

[Tansy_Gold]

41. I'm gonna get you for this, my pretty

Do you have ANY idea how much time I could spend looking at old newspapers? Do you? Huh?


Bookmarked. Definitely bookmarked. . . .but just see if I ever give YOU any alternate options for PIL again. . . . .


:hi:





Tansy Gold, trying to figure out how she can get her paying work done quickly and have time to read through old editions of the Tombstone Epitaph. . . . . .

[TalkingDog]

42. It's a labor day miracle!!!!! Closing above 10K

Which was better than the figures I heard on NPR while driving my sister from a hair appointment. The news break gave the DOW down 12,000 points to below 10,000.

I asked my sister if that's what she heard and she confirmed.

I think the DOW ending at -200 would be the ending of the DOW

[TheWatcher]

43. Well, Give TPTB Credit. Another "Miracle" to defend Dow 10K

Now all the Sheep can live another day of delusion.

And no doubt they will cheer it as some sort of "victory".

What a sick, artificial, joke of a country we have become.

Rarely has the unfettered, unadulterated, absolute corruption of a manipulated, artificial Market been on such blatant display as today.

[Roland99]

44. And oil supplies up 4.7 million barrels (per API)

maybe all those ships at sea are finally coming to port.







yeah...and my name is Joan d'Arc.

[Tansy_Gold]

45. ". . . unadulterated, absolute corruption. . . on such blatant display. . . as today. . .

. . . .










until tomorrow. . . .. .





TG, nty

[Ghost Dog]

47. Euro zone August inflation and jobless signal flat ECB rates

... Economists said the persistently flat euro zone unemployment rate of 10 percent, near a 12-year high despite strong growth in the second quarter, masked diverging trends in the single currency area.

While unemployment in Europe's powerhouse Germany has been on the decline for 14 months in a row, and fell to 7.6 percent in August, the opposite trend can be seen in Spain and Ireland -- where it rose to 20.3 and 13.6 percent in July respectively.

"We have the periphery countries where the labour market is showing no improvement and we have the core euro zone where the labour market is actually pretty good and continues to show good news," said Carsten Brzeski, economist at ING.

"The effect is, for long term policy, that rates will remain on hold for a long while. It illustrates the divergence and the two speeded recovery of the euro zone," he said.

Germany's economy expanded 2.2 percent quarter-on-quarter in the April-June period while Spain grew 0.2 percent.

/... http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE67U1HM20100831

[Ghost Dog]

48. Banks flock to park cash at ECB amid ongoing tensions

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Europe's banks willingly accepted lower returns from the European Central Bank on their cash on Tuesday, highlighting the appeal of the ECB's safe-haven status amid ongoing money market tensions.

The ECB comfortably attracted the 61 billion euros (50 billion pounds) it needed from banks to offset the controversial euro-zone government bond purchases it has made since May.

A total of 71 banks offered up 117.4 billion euros -- almost double the ECB's target. The intense demand meant it was able to pay banks a lower average interest rate than recently, 0.33 percent compared to the 0.35 and 0.39 percent paid the previous two weeks.

It is also well below the 0.5 percent available on open markets, highlighting banks' preference to park cash at the ECB rather than lend it more profitably to peers.

/... http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE67U2IH20100831

[Ghost Dog]

49. US Fed warns economic recovery looks 'sluggish'

... Faced with tepid news from the employment and housing sectors and evidence that the recession had been deeper than previously thought, members of the Fed's rate-setting panel warned the short-term outlook remained bleak.

"Real GDP growth was noticeably weaker in the second quarter of 2010 than most had anticipated, and monthly data suggested that the pace of recovery remained sluggish going into the third quarter," the minutes said.

"The softer tone of incoming economic data suggested that the pace of the expansion would be slower over the near term than previously projected," the central bank said.

At a meeting in June, the Fed had already revised its growth estimates downward to between 3.0 and 3.5 percent for this year.

Against this backdrop the bank said "all but one member" had agreed on the need to reinvest the proceeds from expiring mortgage backed securities in long-term US Treasury bonds, effectively sustaining crisis-era spending.

/... http://www.france24.com/en/20100831-us-fed-warns-economic-recovery-looks-sluggish

[Ghost Dog]

50. Market Close Observations

... The market data is atrocious and yet we fail to accelerate lower. I have highlighted the past two weeks how the 1,040/1,050 are should provide strong support here and so ar so good. We remain core short from 1,126 but feel rather pleased to be out of tactical positions so the chopping around the lows does not give us any headaches. I still believe we should see 1,085/1,100 at the minimum before selling off more aggressively.

Beyond noting the daily support for the S&P and concurrent support for the DAX tested and held today, the intraday volume and month end activity into tonight's close is worth noting: 200,000 ESU0 (mini S&P) futures traded in the last 10 minutes. Even this may very well be simple month end activity, expect most algos out there to take good note of the volume spike on the uptick. The market kept trading strong in after hours and more could be expected on the back of this. Should this play out it could give the momentum necessary for us to go kiss 1,100 goodbye before moving lower.

/... http://www.zerohedge.com/article/nic-lenoirs-market-close-observations

[Ghost Dog]

51. Gold Rallying to $1,500 as Soros's Bubble Inflates

Investors are accumulating enough bullion to fill Switzerland’s vaults twice over as gold’s most- accurate forecasters say the longest rally in at least nine decades has further to go no matter what the economy holds.

Analysts raised their 2011 forecasts more than for any other precious metal the past two months, predicting a 10th annual advance, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The most widely held option on gold futures traded in New York is for $1,500 an ounce by December, or 18 percent more than the record $1,266.50 reached June 21. Holdings through bullion-backed exchange-traded products are already at more than 2,075 metric tons, within 0.1 percent of the all-time high.

...

Buyers accumulated almost 278 tons of gold in 2010 across 10 ETPs tracked by Bloomberg, worth $10.4 billion at this year’s average price. Total holdings are almost twice Switzerland’s official reserves of 1,040 tons, data compiled by the World Gold Council show. ETP holdings reached a record 2,078 tons July 19, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

One of the biggest buyers has been Soros Fund Management LLC, which oversees about $25 billion. George Soros, who made $1 billion breaking the Bank of England’s defense of the pound in 1992, described gold as “the ultimate asset bubble” at the World Economic Forum’s January meeting in Davos, Switzerland. Buying at the start of a bubble is “rational,” he said.

...

Bullion gained 13 percent since January, beating an 8.4 percent return on Treasuries, an 8 percent decline in the MSCI World Index of shares and the 10 percent slump in the S&P GSCI Total Return Index of 24 raw materials.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-30/gold-rallying-to-1-500-for-analysts-as-soros-s-bubble-inflates.html

[Ghost Dog]

54. EURCHF Hits Fresh All Time Record Low

The Swiss Franc continued making historic highs against the Euro, while getting both Greenback and Cable crushed to fresh multi-month lows. CHF has been forging a steady rally, ever since SNB stopped intervening the market, perhaps fed up with the multitude of losses it picked up while attempting to unsuccessfully hold back the bullish tide on Swiss crosses.

USD/CHF approaches the last hour of trading sunk at 1.0145, after the pair hit a fresh 9-month low at 1.0137 in early US session. Parity level seems more viable now, as chances to see further downside exposure are higher. EUR/CHF was driven lower, hitting a fresh record low at 1.2849, while GBP/CHF was hammered over 400 pips, posting a fresh 7-month low at 1.5547.

On an interview for Reuters Insider, Nial Armstrong, FX Correspondent at Reuters, commented: “Option players have been running CHF higher, breaking a big barrier at 1.0220 in USD/CHF, that also pulled EUR/CHF lower after stops were triggered. I doubt traders are trying to trigger a new SNB intervention response, it seems more like an option movement, rather than a hedge-fund base move”. He then added: “Deflationary risk in Switzerland is something to be aware of in the background, yet the SNB is likely not to go beyond the same jawboning seen in Japan, just to convince the market is not going to be a one way bet for the Swiss”.

/... http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=0675f9f6-3a33-4ab6-a257-740c3ec61cbb

[Ghost Dog]

53. U.S. Government Prepares for 'Crisis'

The U.S. economy is much sicker than it was when Obama ascended the throne. Wall Street has continued to ruthlessly choke off all credit to the U.S. economy, meaning that tens of millions of American households and tens of thousands of businesses are much closer to the breaking point than they were in January of 2009.

The entire U.S. retail sector is in a terminal death-spiral, and its only response is to eliminate vast numbers of retail outlets, and herd consumers into more online retailing. While this cuts costs for these companies, most of those cuts will be reduced employment -- fueling the next leg lower for consumer demand, resulting in even more store closures, etc.

This means that the trivial "band-aids" being mused-about by government talking-heads are utterly meaningless. Simply, the Obama regime has to "go big, or go home." It must either engage in massive (genuine) stimulus of the U.S. economy -- meaning a multi-trillion dollar commitment, or simply allow the collapse to proceed (and feed upon itself). However, in even contemplating another, massive wave of spending, Obama faces two other problems (which he created for himself).

Throughout this "U.S. economic recovery," the U.S. government has continued to pretend that it was almost ready to begin some actual, fiscal restraint -- halting the exponential increase in federal government debt. That was the only thing propping up the U.S. dollar (putting aside the constant Euro-bashing by the U.S. propaganda-machine). Allow another sickening plunge in the U.S. dollar, and that will drive away the last, few chumps still insane enough to buy grossly over-priced U.S. Treasuries. This is the road that leads to hyperinflation.

If this was not bad enough, the Obama regime has continued to be successful in duping both the vast majority of sheep in the U.S. electorate, as well as Republican knuckle-draggers that the U.S. economy was "strong enough" to begin to curtail runaway spending. This pool of chumps is looking for spending cuts, not a multi-trillion spending spree.

/... http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article26272.htm