New Newsweek Poll:Bush and Kerry are tied in their race for the White Hous

[papau]

Bush and Kerry are tied in their race for the White House, but the incumbent is getting a slight boost from Nader’s bid, terror in Spain and skirmishes in Pakistan



http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4564653/

WEB EXCLUSIVE
By Brian Braiker
NewsweekMarch 20 - Although independent candidate Ralph Nader threw his hat into the presidential race last month, President George Bush and Senator John Kerry remained locked in a tie, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll. Bush gets 45 percent of the vote to Kerry’s 43 percent--a statistically insignificant difference--while Nader appeals to 5 percent of the voters. Still, if Nader were to pull out now, the race only slightly shifts in Kerry’s favor, moving to a 48 percent to 48 percent dead heat. Bush’s favorability ratings remain steady, but he does enjoy more unified support from registered Republicans than Kerry does from registered Democrats. Finally, with last week’s terror attacks on Madrid and the current skirmishes on the Pakistani border with Afghanistan, voters are increasingly likely to rank "terrorism and homeland security" as very important in determining who gets their vote. On those issues, voters appear to have more confidence in Bush than Kerry.

Nader’s candidacy may appear to threaten that of the senator from Massachusetts, but the poll finds that only 20 percent of voters who support Nader say they support him "strongly." The greater threat to Kerry’s candidacy, however, may be Kerry himself. His approval ratings have dropped since he became his party’s nominee in February (from 56 percent to his current rating of 51 percent) and his unfavorability rating climbed from 27 percent to 36 percent. And with the Bush camp aggressively attacking Kerry as a "flip-flopper" on major issues, voters tend to think Kerry changes his positions more to curry favor (48 percent) than out of an evolving conviction (38 percent). Even among registered Democrats, less than half (47 percent) strongly support Kerry; a clear majority (70 percent) of Republican voters strongly supports Bush. <snip>


For the NEWSWEEK poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates interviewed 1,006 adults aged 18 and older March 18 and March 19 by telephone. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

[Nevernose]

1. The smear is working

"His approval ratings have dropped since he became his party’s nominee in February (from 56 percent to his current rating of 51 percent) and his unfavorability rating climbed from 27 percent to 36 percent. And with the Bush camp aggressively attacking Kerry as a "flip-flopper" on major issues, voters tend to think Kerry changes his positions more to curry favor (48 percent) than out of an evolving conviction (38 percent)."

[Terry_M]

2. He's got a 20 year senate record

Making him very vulnerable to these kinds of attacks. I pretty much expected this.

[RedSock]

4. yeah

He's got a 20 year senate record
Making him very vulnerable to these kinds of attacks. I pretty much expected this.
----------------------------

Yup, because Murcans like a man who will stubbornly refuse to change his mind on any issue, no matter what happens, like *. :crazy:

that is the fundmentalist mindset.

Kerry has to get out the truth about this crap and he has to do it yesterday!

[still_one]

6. Think about it

they have constantly been basing Kerry all last week, and all they can muster is 50/50 support

Wait until Kerry comes back from vacation!

[Auntie Bush]

3. Proof that we CLARK for VP!

"voters are increasingly likely to rank "terrorism and homeland security" as very important in determining who gets their vote. On those issues, voters appear to have more confidence in Bush than Kerry."

The whole article proves that point. We need Clark!

[hackwriter]

7. You're not being realistic

Don't you understand that as long as ShrubCo can keep people frightened, they win? There is NOTHING, no amount of "national defense cred" that will change that. This is the big fallacy of nominating someone as colorless and uninspiring as Kerry, who is ALREADY playing defense, and we haven't had a convention yet. Everyone assumed that Kerry would be "inoculated" from attacks about national security because he's a Vietnam vet. But no one cares. They don't care that Bush is AWOL. Americans are idiots, and they don't even care if they don't have JOBS, as long as they can "feel safe."

How can we fight this?

[Malva Zebrina]

20. that is a courageous post

and we need to have such reality posted here.

How can we fight this?

I think we can fight this by stopping the dumbing down of our children in our current inadequate school system.

We need to upgrade the approach to educating our children. We need to have teachers that are professionals and that are paid enough for the tough work they do. Teachers need to stop blaming parents. Parents are parents and there is nothing to be gained by holding prejudices agianst a parent who a teacher deems inadequate, onto the child.

This will take a long time. the quality of education in this ocuntry needs to be upgraded and badly

Perhaps then, we will not see stupidity being blindly followed. Perhaps then we might see people with the ability to parse the English language and the ability to see through the slogans and the hytpe of a fascist like Bush. We need to develop a population with a higher degree of ability and understanding so that things such as "the war on terror" will not be blindly accepted as a real war.

[lancdem]

24. I think Bush got a short-term bump from the Madrid bombings

because it made people look at terrorism again, and that's Bush's only true strong suit, polls show.

[FlemingsGhost]

5. Of course they are! That's the script...

Bush will poll at, or just below 50% from here on in. It has to be close in order for them to "squeak out another win."

Even if the fight is fixed, give the fans a show.

Makes for great news ratings, too...

[Teaser]

8. Not bad...

considering the week Kerry had.

If he can get back out there Monday and not screw up, things will look even better next week.

[iamjoy]

9. Don't Trust Polls

They are often of existing voters. Remember the Republicans are moving out with their fancy rig to register 3 million new voters.

How come we Democrats aren't doing something like this?

[Name removed]

10. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Lindacooks]

13. buh bye

[FlemingsGhost]

14. "ballet stuffing"? Boy you're on your toes!

Get it?

That's a pun, genius.

[revree]

11. Means that half the country is made up of really stupid idiots...

after all that is going on, who could still vote for Bush and sleep well at night???

[calimary]

12. Shit. Man, that's all I can say.

Note my sig line - do something about it on Monday morning! Letters to the Editor via www.takebackthemedia.com would also help.

In fact, I've seen what I suspect was one on CNN, on one of those viewer talkback segments (I've been laid up from foot surgery) and one had some of those buzz-phrases in it about "steady leadership" and stuff that the average voter doesn't automatically say as part of their every-day lexicon.

[creeksneakers2]

15. The Rasmussen tracking polls

show almost no change in the last month. I don't think the Bush attacks are working.

[truthisfreedom]

16. i don't see this as bad. it's freaking MARCH. wait until july, august,

september, october... i think kerry's doing great considering that he hasn't even officially been nominated yet. once a vp has been chosen, and his visibility climbs, he'll get more solid dem backing.

the truth is, no matter what kind of smearing bushco does during this election campaign, HE CAN NEVER CHANGE HIS RECORD OR THE RECORD OF HIS HARLOT CO-HORTS.

now what i want to know is, will Kerry lift cheney's harlot skirts when he's elected and show us exactly what kind of corruption was going on in the energy meetings?

[demgrrrll]

17. Not bad, since they have been trying to drop pianos on Kerry for

awhile now. I am not pessimistic in the least
at this point. I really believe Kerry will win.

[Nicholas_J]

19. Yup

Depending on what happens after the June 30th deadline for getting out of Iraq, we can expect some ratherserious effects on BUsh's polling numbers combined with the investigation about Bush's role in ignoring pre 9/11 intelligence about AL Qaeda, BUsh may face even further credibility problems regarding the reason to go into Iraq, and his failure to increase security against terrorists when there was plenty of reason to do so before 9/11. This all starts next week.

Plus thr four investigations regarding the estimates for the cost ofthe Medicare Prescription bill, the investigation into the threats towards the official who had the actual figures, will also have an adverse effect on the administrations credibility.

Kerry will be coming up with a great deal of attack info once CLinton's people start shoring up their info about Bush's failures to prevent 9/11 when there was more than enough intelligence for his people to begin upping ariport security after Richard Clarke advised that he suspected that terrorist would try to hijack an airliner and fly it into a building or Washington DC itself.

[Nicholas_J]

18. To be honest

For Kerry to be doing thins well this early against an incmubent president is almost unheard of. Bushes ratings are the lowest of any incumbent president in the last century.

After the testimony from the Clinton Administration and the members of Bushs Adminstration about the warnings the Bush Administration received about 9/11 during the 8 months between BUsh's inauguration and the AL Qaeda attacks, one may see even furtthre dips in BUsh's popularity. McCains support of Kerry's ability to handle national security should result in a bump in Kerry's rating over the next week or so.

This had to be anticipated once Bush actually started running, but attacks on Kerrys record will be old hat as all they really have o go on his the myth that Bush is doing a good job in the national security/terrorism area, when the records from Clarke clearly show that Bush did nothing to prevent the events of 9/1 from occurng, choosing to order intelligence agencies to not puruse that course and to focus on Iraq.

[Nicholas_J]

21. MSNBC is doing a poll to compare the differences between

WHat polls on the Web are finding and what Newspweek found and in MSNBC's polls the reulsts are far different with Kerry receiveing 69 percent of the votes and Bush only coming up with 30 percent:

Percentages may not total to 100% for each question due to non-responses

Suppose there were only two presidential candidates on the ballot and you HAD TO CHOOSE between... George W. Bush, the Republican, and John Kerry, the Democrat. If the election were held TODAY, who would you vote for? * 2099 web responses

RESPONSES WEB Newsweek Magazine

Bush 30% 48%
Kerry 69% 48%
Undecided/Other 1% 4%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? * 2100 web responses

RESPONSES WEB Newsweek Magazine

Approve 28% 48%
Disapprove 70% 44%
Don't know 1% 8%

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/4564653/

Seems to be a big differnce between this polls and the Newsweek poll which was done in the same manner.

[NeoConsSuck]

22. In my opinion

Kerry has to start hitting on domestic issues. A Democrat is never going to win on foreign/defense issues. This has nothing to do with any Kerry shortcomings. The populace for years (at least since Eisenhower) has viewed the Repugs as stronger on defense.

Don't let the cockroach draw Kerry into "terrist" issues. Kerry won't win. The sheeple think Bush is God when it comes to killing the evildoers.

Hammer, hammer, and hammer more on outsourcing, Social Security, job losses, environment, hell anything but "terrists".

[yardwork]

26. I don't know.

I'm talking with a fair number of people in the south who are mad at W about foreign policy - specifically the war in Iraq. They believe that W lied to them, and they don't trust him anymore. They are very angry.

Once a leader loses the trust of the people - especially people who were part of his base - he is toast.

I think that the polls understate how angry the average American is at W. I am very hopeful about the election.

[agincourt]

23. Maybe they're fixing the polls,

to make shrub look good so that we don't have another terrorist attack. If shrub falls behind too much , we might need another bloodbath to keep the sheep scared and in their place.

[rocktivity]

25. Another courageous post

I, too, have entertained the thought they're keeping the polls close, but for a much simpler reason--they have been mandated not to make Bush look bad. But I also agree with the posts that says that the fact there's a 50-50 split does run in Kerry's favor.

:headbang:
rocknation

[JPZenger]

27. Nader Could Keep Pennsylvania from Kerry

According to the latest polling data, there is a high risk that Nader could keep Kerry from winning Pennsylvania. PA. is a "must win" state for Kerry, with 21 electoral votes.

I suggest that we send Nader on a long trip in a 1964 Corvair around the D.C. beltway.

[FlemingsGhost]

28. How do you distract folks at DU? ... Nader!

Divide and conquer.

It's all BushCo has at this point. Lord knows, they can't runn on his record as PretzelDunce.

By the way, stop reading polls....

[struggle4progress]

29. Well, that's what I've been saying about Nader but ...

if I keep reading polls, I'm going to start worrying about Nader as a convenient official excuse for the outcome of a close election.

I guess I'll try to stop reading polls, per your advice ...