STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday February 11

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday February 11, 2010

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Name(s): David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON February 10, 2010

Dow... 10,038.38 -20.26 (-0.20%)
Nasdaq... 2,147.87 -3.00 (-0.14%)
S&P 500... 1,068.13 -2.39 (-0.22%)
Gold future... 1,076 -1.10 (-0.10%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.69 +0.05 (+1.24%)
30-Year Bond 4.64 +0.05 (+1.18%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

Austerity or Money Printing?
BY CHRIS MARTENSON

From time to time I think it's a good idea to stop squinting at the short-term market wiggles and pull our heads back for a wide-angle view. Now would be a good time, so that's what we're going to do. For the record, I also happen to believe that close-up market analysis loses some of its potency during times of immense official intervention. As with any subsidy program, prices become distorted and often fail to tell the real story, which is absolutely true with respect to interest rates and, by extension, the risk premium for stocks.

Back to the story. Where the current crisis has been described using millions of words in thousands of articles packed with arcane acronyms (such as TALF, CDO, and CMBS), perplexing regulatory lapses and with a degree of complexity that dwarfs the Apollo moon mission, I can explain why the whole thing happened using just three words.

Too. Much. Debt.

Total credit market debt in the US doubled between 2000 and 2008 while incomes stagnated and jobs were not created. ....

That's all there is to it and we'd have a better shot of crafting an enduring recovery if we better understood the difference between causes and symptoms. Too much debt was the cause; virtually everything else was either a symptom or a contributory factor. The main contributory factor was Alan Greenspan's monkeying around with interest rates between 2002 and 2004 to create ultra-cheap money to fight the effects of his prior monetary and regulatory mistakes.

Which entirely explains why I am so dismissive of world efforts to stoke an economic recovery by deploying even cheaper money and even more debt. As earnest as these efforts are, they spring from the very same flawed thinking and practices that got us into the mess in the first place. Plus, they've never worked before.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Demeter]

18. Or Alternatively, Too Little Wage Gains and Too Many Jobs Lost

Debt is like temperature--it's what causes the fever that needs treating...if you want a recovery, that is.

[DemReadingDU]

26. Chris Martenson of The Crash Course

I have the link in my sig line

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:30 Initial Claims 02/06
Briefing.com 475k
Consensus 465k
Prior 480k

08:30 Continuing Claims 1/30
Briefing.com 4550k
Consensus 4590k
Prior 4602k

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

35. Initial Claims at 440,000 - last week rev'd up 3k

8:32a U.S. continuing claims down 79,000 to 4.54 mln

8:32a U.S. 4-week avg. claims down 1,000 to 468,500

8:31a Jobless claims at lowest level since Jan. 2

8:31a U.S. jobless claims down 43,000 to 440,000

[ozymandius]

3. Oil rises near $75 as traders eye stocks, dollar

SINGAPORE – Oil prices rose to near $75 a barrel Thursday in Asia as traders looked for guidance from stock and currency markets amid a muddled crude demand outlook. ...

Oil has zigzagged recently — jumping about 7 percent since touching $69.59 a barrel on Friday after falling from $84 last month — as investors struggle to forecast crude demand amid a sluggish global economy. ...

In other Nymex trading in March contracts, heating oil rose 0.81 cent to $1.955 a gallon, and gasoline was up 0.77 cent at $1.9367 a gallon. Natural gas gained 3.2 cents to $5.324 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Blizzard freezes Washington, but does anyone really care?

WASHINGTON — Back-to back storms have turned snow day in the nation's capital to snow week. Federal agencies have been closed since Friday afternoon, the House of Representatives and the Senate have canceled all votes and the endless stream of luncheons, congressional hearings, press conferences and cocktail parties — the lifeblood of political Washington — is frozen.

Forgive most Americans if they haven't noticed. ...

Senate leaders had planned this week to take up a multibillion-dollar bill to create jobs, while the House was scheduled to vote on a bill to end an antitrust exemption for health insurers, which supporters said would lead to more competitive insurance rates.

The House gave up on Tuesday, saying that it wouldn't hold any votes this week. Hours later, with snow and sleet pelting the Capitol, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid , D- Nev. , said there probably wouldn't be any action there this week, either. Next week, both chambers are in recess for the President's Day holiday.

The jokes about Washington inaction practically write themselves.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/mcclatchy/20100210/pl_mcclatchy/3423519

---

This column brings some very keen issues to the front. Doing nothing is mantra in the best of weather. Perhaps this blizzard will snap some sense into some people.

[Dr.Phool]

19. If the Senate ran into the Donner Party.

Would anybody notice?

[Po_d Mainiac]

20. The Donner Party would :smile: n/t

[Roland99]

32. Won't be the people that are the subject of today's toon. That's for sure.

[Demeter]

38. That IS the Donner Party!

You didn't recognize them because of the nice new suits.

[ozymandius]

5. Foreclosures down in January, but surge on way?

The number of U.S. households facing foreclosure in January increased 15 percent from the same month last year, and a surge in cash-strapped homeowners who've fallen behind on mortgages could be on the way. ...

January marked the 11th straight month with more than 300,000 properties receiving a foreclosure filing. The numbers could stay above that level as unemployed homeowners who have tried to keep up with their mortgages finally start missing monthly payments.

Mortgage financier Fannie Mae reported in late January that the rate of borrowers who have a conventional loan on a house and are seriously delinquent was 5.29 percent in November, more than doubling the rate of 2.13 percent in November 2008. Borrowers are considered seriously delinquent if they are past due by three months or more, or are in foreclosure. ...

Economic issues, such as unemployment or reduced income, are expected to be the main catalysts for foreclosures this year. Initially, subprime mortgages were mostly the culprit, but homeowners with good credit who took out conventional, fixed-rate loans are the fastest growing group of foreclosures.

Among states, Nevada posted the nation's highest foreclosure rate, followed by Arizona, California, Florida and Utah. Rounding out the top 10 were Idaho, Michigan, Illinois, Oregon and Georgia.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100211/ap_on_bi_ge/us_foreclosure_rates

[Roland99]

21. Citi offers alternative to foreclosure

http://money.cnn.com/2010/02/11/real_estate/Citibank_alternative_to_foreclosure/?postversion=2010021103

Instead of borrowers falling further and further behind on their mortgages, leading to an eventual foreclosure sale, they can stay in their homes for up to six months, if they agree to then hand over the deed to the lender.

The borrowers the program targets are already seriously delinquent, having missed at least three monthly payments, and are well on the road to losing their homes.

By giving the house back to the lender, in a transaction called a deed-in-lieu of foreclosure, the lender saves considerable expenses, especially on legal fees. Because of those savings, CitiMortgage, a division of Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), will grant quite generous terms to participants.

...

The biggest advantage for borrowers is the time it gives them to plan their next moves. And while borrowers still lose their homes, the program promises to make the process more orderly and provides benefits for both lender and borrowers.

A kinder, gentler foreclosure (with a $1,000 get-the-fuck-out check to help cover moving expenses)

[Roland99]

22. I'm really torn between buying a house right now or renting for another year.

I could go to contract by the end of April and qualify for that homebuyer's tax credit (10% of the sale price up to $8,000...would net be about $2,500 - $3,000). But, most decent places down here have HOAs (some aren't bad...$65-75/mo...some are $200/mo and up). And with all of the foreclosures recently, the remaining homeowners are having to pay more than their usual share as when banks foreclose on a home, they don't pay the HOA fees (something that was upheld in a court ruling...Supreme Court maybe?)

So, I figure the market will be soft enough for another year or so...I'm just worried a spike in interest rates might start before long and negate any benefit to waiting.


I think, in the long run, I'll end up renting and take my time to look for a good bargain on a foreclosed home or a short sale. I'll have time on my side...in no particular hurry to buy a house right now, really.

[DemReadingDU]

28. Renting vs owning

From reading elsewhere, houses prices will be coming down for some time. Unfortunately, the interest rates will be rising. Ugh.

I think during this time of economic uncertainty, I would continue renting and stay out of debt. I'd hate to get a mortgage on a house, and then get laid off from a job.

[Roland99]

31. Yeah...good point

The place where I work now is entirely dependent upon the business traveler/tourist trade. They've weathered the worst of the downturn here rather well and the project I'm working on is a good 2-3 year project so I *feel* safe but, yeah, ya never know.

[DemReadingDU]

34. Everyone wants to believe their job is safe

but there is a lot of uncertainty out there.

My son, for example, is a cop in a major Ohio city. Yeh he feels quite secure in his job, there is always crime and it's getting worse. However, tax revenues are way down and the city is talking budget cuts by laying off people and furloughs (taking days off with out pay). The police and fire have unions to guarantee jobs and wages. But if there are not enough revenues from taxes because so many other people are laid off, it is a matter of time that the wages for police and fire will be reduced, and staff will be cut.

My daughter works for a hospital in a different Ohio city. Great job doing research. However, the research is funded by grants. And those grants will dry up during poor economic conditions.

Neither of my 30-something kids see this uncertainty coming in their jobs.

My spouse has a great pension, for now. But when the global financial Ponzi collapses, his pension will become worthless from all those toxic investments imploding. Is he worried? Nah, he says he won't spend as much. lol

[Demeter]

44. I'm Planning on Not Buying Anything on Credit, Period

Not a house, not a car, not windows for the house, or anything else. I will save up enough, or do without. I can't take that chance.

I am also getting the Younger Kid out of credit cards. She hopes to be debt free in April.

It's just madness, thinking that the Other People's Money ploy will work without the gun in hand that Big Corporation and Big Government have.

Now is the time to absolutely refuse to play their game.

[Demeter]

39. If You Wait, With Any Luck the HOAs will go Broke

and that will make buying so much cheaper.

[Warpy]

47. That would be a lovely idea

but I think they'll hang on forever, some martinet always wanting to dictate the color of drapes you have in the front window and other such utter nonsense.

HOAs are a huge reason I'm still clinging to a shabby inner city neighborhood instead of moving to an area commensurate with my inheritance.

[Demeter]

51. Believe me, They WILL Go Under

The ill-will that they generate through the abuse of power will see to it. They will disband and cease to trouble all detached residences. Townhouses like my place will and have learned to back off on the stupid and just keep the common infrastructure going.

[Warpy]

43. Take a look at rents versus the PITI of a fixed 30 year mortgage

Rents are also softening as displaced homeowners are tending to bunk in with friends and relatives so they don't lose their homes, too, but they will begin to rise again when tempers fray and the economy improves enough to allow people to rent instead of board.

What I'm saying is that owning a home can be a great hedge against rising rent in the long run. Of course, if interest rates climb significantly, the housing prices will plummet. The end result will be the same, only you'll pay interest instead of principal.

When I bought, renting a house cost very close to buying one, so I jumped. Rent exceeded the PITI within 2 years.

While you can get a nicer house in an area with an HOA, do consider getting one outside those areas. The HOA fees, property taxes, and insurance are the costs that can rise over time and you want to dodge the ones you can.

[Roland99]

50. Yeah...if I can avoid an HOA I'll be all over that.

$150/mo to cut my front lawn and provide a security gate to the community, plus a community pool? I'll probably have my *own* pool and a lawnmower doesn't cost that much!



Edit: Meant to add that from what I've been crunching quickly the last couple of days, buying is right on-par with rents in some cases (but adding in homeowners and property taxes bumps the total monthly cost up a few hundred but that's a benefit of homeownership.

[ozymandius]

6. EU summit to get to grips with Greece rescue plans

BRUSSELS (Reuters) – European Union leaders are expected to lay the foundations for a financial rescue of Greece at a summit in Brussels on Thursday, but any package of support is likely to require major economic adjustments by Athens.

Germany and France are expected to take the lead in sending a message that the EU will help Greece tackle its debt and deficit problems. But the structure, size and any conditions attached to a deal are unclear and probably will not be worked out until EU finance ministers meet next week, EU sources said. ...

Greece's debt crisis is not officially on the agenda for Thursday's one-day summit, but it will be discussed by leaders over lunch with the president of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, and a statement is expected afterwards. ...

Thursday's summit, originally called in January to discuss the EU's 2020 growth strategy, has become a major focus for markets, with Athens needing to borrow 53 billion euros ($75 billion) this year to cover its deficit and refinance debts.

Yields on Greek debt have soared over the past month -- though they have fallen in recent days as the possibility of EU support has increased -- while concerns persist that Greece's problems could spill over to Portugal and Spain.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100211/bs_nm/us_eu_greece

[Ghost Dog]

17. How serious is the euro debt crisis?

EUOBSERVER / COMMENT - Much is being made of the pressure on the euro arising from the sorry state of Greek finances, and of the risk posed by Portugal, Spain, Ireland and even Italy. The interest rate on Greek 10-year Eurobonds is nearly 7%, over twice what the German government is paying to borrow abroad. The recent story in the Financial Times that hedge funds are betting nearly €6bn on further falls in the euro does not bode well for the solidity of the common currency.

Could it be that unless the renewed discipline of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) is imposed on eurozone member states, the whole euro edifice might tumble? Politically, the interminable negotiations over Lisbon have left the EU in a sorry state. Currency collapse would destroy Europe's main achievement.

I'd like to say it's simply not going to happen; so far, there is little sign that contagion will spread. Rationally speaking, just as a budget crisis in Delaware or California cannot bring down the US dollar, one in Greece or Spain cannot bring down the euro. But if financial markets can be ‘irrationally exuberant', to borrow Alan Greenspan's phrase, they can also be irrationally pessimistic.

Paul Krugman, writing on the Asian crisis, points out that the orthodox budget balancing medicine recommended by the IMF in 1997 flew in the face of economic logic - and has resulted today, he might have added, in a large Asian savings glut which has contributed to the crisis. How could so many clever economists get it so wrong?

‘Fear of speculators' was Mr Krugman's answer. In truth, economic policy is increasingly driven not by logic but by sentiment in the financial sector. Europe seems set to apply the same budget balancing medicine used in the 1997 financial crisis. That's what makes the euro debt crisis dangerous.

Three principles

What would a rational economic response be? Broadly, there are four principles at issue. First, is budget balance desirable in a recession? Secondly, is a fall in the euro calamitous? Thirdly, should the Eurozone be prepared to ‘bail out' individual members who get into trouble? And finally, is the economic architecture of the Eurozone adequate to dealing with the problem?

... snip: explanation of four principles ...

The existence of the euro, far from being an impediment to adjustment, has given the EU the firm bedrock it needs to face a crisis. In its absence, the drachma, the escudo, the peseta and the punt would have all been attacked viciously by speculators in the currency markets. Many millions of people in the Eurozone could have seen their life savings disappear, just as happened in Iceland. Or again, as in the 1930s, the beggar-my-neighbour policy of competitive devaluation could have gained unstoppable momentum.

Nevertheless, the current crisis has tested the euro and will continue to do so. What is needed is a long-term vision of Europe's economic and political architecture, not a short-term response to the vagaries of the international currency market. What is needed, too, is a political class committed to Europe, rather than committed to the narrow pursuit of one set of national interests at the cost of others.

/full article... http://euobserver.com/7/29451

[Ghost Dog]

49. Moody's says Spain deficit reduction plan credible

MADRID, Feb 10 (Reuters) - Ratings agency Moody's said on Wednesday Spain's austerity plan to 2013 to cut its public deficit is credible, as market fears grow surrounding troubled economies across southern Europe. 'The 2010-2013 plan represents a credible 'exit strategy' from the budgetary stimulus in an effort to reduce the deficit and regain control over the government's debt affordability. This combination is supportive of the country's Aaa rating,' the agency said in a statement.

Spain's public deficit expanded to 11.4 percent of gross domestic product in 2009 following a massive stimulus plan aimed at staving off the worst of the economic crisis, from a surplus in 2007.

The government announced an austerity plan last week which aimed to slash the central government's spending to bring the deficit back in line with European Union guidelines of 3 percent of GDP by 2013. 'In order to achieve this, it plans a fiscal adjustment of nearly 10 percent of GDP, taking account of higher interest payments as a result of rising debt levels,' Moody's said.

The ratings agency said it was confident around half of this adjustment could be achieved. 'This is, in our view, a good start.'

Of the remaining 5 percent, Moody's said the government's growth forecasts, which see GDP rising by 2.9 percent in 2012 and 3 percent in 2013 and would support the deficit reduction plan, were too optimistic, echoing comments by other economists.

On the general economy, Moody's said the Spanish recession, which saw quarterly GDP contractions for 6 straight quarters to Q3, had ended and would likely flatline in the last three months of the year.

...

'The economy will not bounce back to the 3.25 percent to 4 percent growth rate it averaged in the last cycle, it will nevertheless average a more moderate, but still respectable 2 - 2.25 percent pace of growth once the excess supply from the construction cycle has been eliminated,' said Moody's.

Spain's economy has been severely hit by the bursting of the property bubble and subsequent collapse of the construction industry after 10 years of vigorous growth built on cheap credit.

Earlier, Moody's restated the need to differentiate between Spain and southern-European neighbours Portugal and Greece.

/... http://www.xe.com/news/2010-02-10%2010:53:00.0/949485.htm?c=1&t=

[Ghost Dog]

48. EU Demands Greek Cuts in Bid to Uphold Euro Stability

Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- European leaders ordered Greece to get the bloc’s highest budget deficit under control and promised “determined” action to staunch the worst crisis in the euro currency’s 11-year history. The agreement, brokered by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, called for closer monitoring of the Greek economy and stopped short of offering concrete measures to help officials in Athens handle a debt load exceeding annual economic output. Greek bonds rose and the euro fell after the deal was announced at a European Union summit.

...

The EU leaders’ statement, which Merkel called a “clear political signal” to Greece, left open how the EU would respond to a fresh wave of speculative attacks against Greece or countries such as Spain and Portugal, which are also struggling to cut their budget deficits. The statement echoes prior calls for Greece to clean up its accounts and gave the International Monetary Fund a monitoring role.

Euro-region leaders also discussed the creation of a lending facility for Greece, an EU official said. States would contribute in proportion to the size of their economies, said the official in Brussels, who spoke on condition of anonymity. The official said it’s “not yet time” for a European bond.

...

Greek bonds, which have plunged since December on concern about the country’s ability to tackle its deficit, extended a three-day rally, with the yield on the two-year government bond falling 39 basis points to 5.07 percent as of 4:50 p.m. in Brussels.

...

The euro weakened 0.9 percent to $1.3616. Its slide to a nine-month low of $1.3586 on Feb. 5 forced Greece to the top of the EU agenda out of concern that market turmoil might spread.

The pre-summit statement bore the imprint of Merkel, who as head of Europe’s largest economy, pressed for strict conditions on any European financial lifeline for countries that spend too much and save too little. “Greece won’t be left alone but there are rules and these rules must be adhered to,” Merkel told reporters. “On this basis we will agree on a statement.”

Greece, representing 2.7 percent of the bloc’s $13 trillion economy, posted a budget deficit of 12.7 percent of gross domestic product in 2009, the highest in the euro’s 11-year history and more than four times the EU’s 3 percent limit.

Papandreou’s government needs to sell 53 billion euros ($73 billion) of debt this year, the equivalent of about 20 percent of GDP. Greece’s credit rating was cut by Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings in December.

Papandreou’s plans to cut public-sector wages, trim welfare provisions and raise taxes have provoked street protests that threaten to throw the government off course.

/more... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aaiyjZR.KzVw

... At least Papandreou plans to make sure the rich pay more taxes more often. But the Greek rich are invited to repatriate their offshore wealth, paying only a five percent penalty, I see.

As I see it, working and middle classes may be more likely to accept and cooperate with forces of economic and social change when they see that more privileged classes are equally and proportionately subject to those same forces. For example, everybody knows that wealthy individuals and corporations don't pay their fair share of taxes. This should change, and change retroactively or in an otherwise compensatory way.

[fedsron2us]

62. It is the banks not the Greeks who are being bailed here

The issue here is not just Greece's debts which although large on a national scale are tiny compared to the scale of the European economy. Even the declared systemic risk posed by cascading defaults by Portuagel Spain, Italy etc is probably overplayed. More important is who is holding the IOUs issued by the Club Med countries. When you examine those figures you find it is German, French, British and Swiss banks who stand to lose big. This is why Greece is going to be bailed out. It has less to do with protecting the integrity of the Eurozone as an economic entity or even the EU as a political entity and far more to do with averting another rounding of the banking crisis.

[ozymandius]

7. Bank bailout watchdog warns of commercial real estate crisis

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The commercial real estate market has fallen more than 40 percent from early 2007 and a wave of loan failures in the next few years could threaten the economy just as it struggles back to its feet, a report from the panel overseeing the $700 billion bank bailout said. ...

Elizabeth Warren, a Harvard Law School professor who chairs the five-member Congressional Oversight Panel, told reporters on a conference call that the report did not endorse specific policy recommendations because members were split. ....

The panel "is deeply concerned that commercial loan losses could jeopardize the stability of many banks, particularly the nation's mid-size and smaller banks, and that as the damage spreads beyond individual banks that it will contribute to prolonged weakness throughout the economy," the report said.

Warren said there are about $1.4 trillion worth of outstanding commercial real estate loans in the United States that will need to be refinanced before 2014, and about half of them are already "underwater," an industry term that refers to loans with a higher amount than the property's current value.

Unlike residential loans, which are frequently amortized over three decades, commercial real estate loans are usually made with 3- to 5-year terms and include a balloon payment at the end of the term. In normal circumstances, these loans are refinanced before the term ends.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100211/pl_nm/us_usa_congress_bailout_panel

[Roland99]

23. Big banks play loosey-goosey w/trillions in risky investments, get Federal bailout, make a mess.....

then the domino effect kicks in and the formerly very sound, very stable local and regional banks start foundering and their leftovers get swallowed up by the now even-bigger-than-too-big-to-fail (EBTTBTF) banks.


Sounds fair to me.


:sarcasm:

[ozymandius]

8. Jobless Suffer With Corporate Cash Climbing to $1.19 Trillion

Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- A majority of companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index increased cash to a combined $1.19 trillion while simultaneously reducing spending, keeping a jobs recovery on hold.

Caterpillar Inc., Eaton Corp., Walgreen Co. and General Electric Co. are among 260 companies that ended last quarter with $522 billion more than a year earlier after cutting capital spending by 42 percent. Economists say the dearth of investment is keeping the jobless rate at about 10 percent as the U.S. emerges from its worst recession since the 1930s. ...

Investment and hiring may remain low as companies bring unused capacity back on line and rely on productivity gains to fill demand, said Edward Lazear, former economic adviser to President George W. Bush and a professor at Stanford University in Stanford, California. Employers have eliminated 8.4 million jobs since the U.S. slipped into recession in December 2007. ...

Steps companies took to accumulate cash also included lowering costs, selling shares, raising debt, crimping dividends and putting share repurchases on hold. In February 2009, GE decided to cut its quarterly dividend to 10 cents a share from 31 cents, saving about $9 billion annually. The reduction in the annual payout was the company’s first since 1938.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aE6W8c9z9Bms&pos=10

[4dsc]

24. Saving for political ads in the fall.. nt

[Demeter]

40. Playing "Beggar thy Neighbor"

Or more accurately, Beggar thy workforce. Guess they don't remember how that game ends.

[ozymandius]

9. Global Confidence Ebbs on Concern Budget Gaps Will Hurt Rebound

Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Confidence in the world economy dropped in February on concern worsening government finances in some European nations will derail the global recovery, according to a Bloomberg survey of users on six continents.

The Bloomberg Professional Global Confidence Index dropped to 54.9 from 66.6 in January, when the reading was at the highest level since the series began two years ago. The index exceeded 50 for a seventh month, which means there were more optimists than pessimists. The survey was conducted last week, before Germany and other European Union nations signaled they may help support Greece’s government finances.

Greece, Spain and Portugal are among European nations struggling to control widening budget deficits, prompting investors to dump the countries’ assets and question the sustainability of the recovery in the global economy. More than $4.5 trillion has been wiped from stocks worldwide since Jan. 14, while credit-default swaps have risen as investors seek protection against deteriorating European government finances. ...

A measure of U.S. participants’ confidence in the economy fell to 41.3 this month from 54.4 in January. More Americans unexpectedly filed first-time claims for unemployment insurance even as the jobless rate dropped in January, while Federal Reserve policy makers are attempting to gauge whether the economy is strong enough for them to withdraw unprecedented stimulus. ....

Asia’s index fell to 70.8 in February from 79.8, while the confidence gauge for Japan dropped to 40.6 from 44.1. Japan’s government must heed the warning on soaring debt loads stemming from the turmoil in Greece and concerns about the credit quality of some European countries shouldn’t be regarded as “a burning house on the other side of the river,” Bank of Japan board member Seiji Nakamura said Feb. 4.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=afLUlHQr_2q4&pos=13

[Ghost Dog]

13. Global Markets: Euro up ahead of EU summit, Greece rescue eyed

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The euro rose on Thursday ahead of a key EU summit that could lay the groundwork for a rescue of debt-stricken Greece, while Asian stocks gained for a third day, powered by strong economic data from Australia and China.

European Union leaders are expected to reach a political agreement at the summit to help Greece, with the financial details to be hammered out at finance ministers' meeting in Brussels on Monday, a senior EU source told Reuters.

...

"It seems all markets are focused on events in the euro zone and 'will they' or 'won't they' commit bags of cash to a bailout in some manner," said David Watt, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital.

The euro edged up 0.37 percent to $1.3783, a day after it shed 0.4 percent on concerns about the fiscal problems facing euro zone countries such as Greece, Portugal and Spain. It hit a 8-1/2-month low of around $1.3585 last week on trading platform EBS.

Asian shares shrugged off euro zone jitters and sluggish U.S. markets, buoyed by data showing a surge in employment in Australia and stronger-than-expected bank lending in China in January.

The MSCI index of Asian stocks traded outside Japan (^MIAPJ0000PUS - News) advanced 1.6 percent, with the metals and energy sector leading the way. Japan was closed for a national holiday.

The index has lost more than 8 percent so far this year after surging nearly 70 percent in 2009, far outpacing gains of just 20 percent in U.S. and European countries.

Asian corporate earnings have mostly met market estimates this year due to strong regional economic growth, with equity analysts recently upgrading estimates for metals and mining industries and the technology sector.

Australian shares (ASX:^AXJO - News) rose 0.9 percent to their highest close in one week and the Australian dollar jumped three-quarters of a cent after data showed employment surged past all forecasts for a fifth straight month in January.

The jobless rate also dove to an 11-month low, reigniting talk interest rates would have to go up again as early as March.

In China, whose markets have been pressured by worries about an official clampdown on excessive credit, data showed banks lent 1.39 trillion yuan of loans in January, more than the 1.35 trillion yuan economists had forecast.

Other data showed consumer inflation moderated more than expected in the year to January, though producer price inflation accelerated.

...

Beijing's moves to staunch excessive credit and keep the economy from overheating have pushed Shanghai (^SSEC - News) and Hong Kong (HKSE:^HSI - News) indexes down more than 10 percent from November and weighed on stocks in the rest of Asia and globally.

But Shanghai shares rose 0.2 percent after the latest data, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index (HKSE:^HSI - News) gained 1.1 percent.

South Korea's central bank signaled interest rates would stay at a record low for much of the first half, citing uncertainties over the economic outlook and European sovereign debt problems.

/... http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Euro-up-ahead-of-EU-summit-rb-3406107802.html?x=0&.v=1

[Ghost Dog]

15. China CPI inflation slows but lending brisk

BEIJING, Feb 11 (Reuters) - Chinese consumer inflation unexpectedly slowed last month, but a leap in lending and a rise in factory-gate inflation will keep policymakers alert to the risk of credit-fuelled overheating in the world's third-largest economy.

...

The central bank has already started to tap on the monetary brakes, notably by raising banks' required reserves, and economists expect further tightening steps in the months to come.

...

The upshot was that food prices, which make up one-third of China's CPI basket, increased slowly in year-on-year terms last month but are likely to rise more strongly this month.

"The central bank will probably have to wait until seasonal factors fade in one or two months to make further moves. We think there will be further tightening when CPI rises above 2.25 percent, probably after March," said Jiang Chao, an analyst with Guotai Junan Securities in Shanghai, referring to the current bank deposit rate.

Once inflation surpasses that level, real rates will be negative, potentially driving savers to pour money into stocks and property at a time when the government is already concerned about bubbles forming in these markets.

...

The determination of China's Communist Party planners to keep a grip on the economy was evident in loan figures for January.

Bank lending of 1.39 trillion yuan was the third-largest monthly total on record and surpassed forecasts of 1.35 trillion yuan. But, given that banks had already lent 1.1 trillion yuan by mid-January, the full-month total showed the success of subsequent arm-twisting to slow the pace of credit growth.
"The government, with its very early action on direct control of credit, has been able to keep overall lending below last year's level," Wang said.

Banks lent a record 1.62 trillion yuan ($237.3 billion) in January 2009 when they heeded the party's call to pump up credit and revive an economy that stalled in late 2008 under the weight of the global financial crisis.

Banks went on to lend a total of 9.5 trillion yuan in 2009, providing the fuel for GDP to expand 8.7 percent, by far the strongest growth rate of any major economy. This year, Beijing has set a lower new-loans target of 7.5 trillion yuan.

...

Factory-gate prices rose 4.3 percent in the year to January, accelerating from a 1.7 percent rise in the 12 months to December. Economists had expected a 4.2 percent increase.

...

Credit growth leapt 31.7 percent last year; minimum wages are rising in some coastal manufacturing provinces; and a resumption of fast economic growth may reduce spare capacity.

Goldman Sachs said this week that policymakers in Beijing would not tolerate an inflation level above 4 percent, while the China Business News identified 3 percent as the key level.

If inflation exceeds that level or if the Federal Reserve raises U.S. interest rates, the People's Bank of China could respond by raising its own interest rates or further increasing the proportion of deposits that banks must hold in reserve at the central bank instead of lending out, the paper said on Thursday.

/... http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&articleid=7746446&subject=economic&action=article

[ozymandius]

10. AIG overhauls bonus system

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- AIG announced on Wednesday that it is changing the way it pays out bonuses to its employees, opting to determine compensation based on performance. ...

Previously, AIG had offered some of its employees retention bonuses based on length of service but not on performance. Those were the kinds of controversial bonuses that AIG paid to 400 employees who worked at AIG Financial Products, the division that wrote insurance-like contracts on banks' risky assets and are blamed for the company's near collapse.

AIG still has hundreds of millions of dollars left to pay in retention bonuses that were previously agreed upon with employees, but the company said that going forward, it will no longer issue those kinds of bonuses.

Under the new system, AIG employees' performance will be graded and compared to their peers to determine their annual compensation, including bonuses.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/02/10/news/companies/aig_bonuses/index.htm

[mbperrin]

27. Bonus for performance? Whatta concept!

Haven't they been telling us they need to retain talent all this time? Now it turns out that if you just hang around long enough, you get the bonus.

When I was little and changed my story all the time, my dad told me that was lying, and he had a leather belt to encourage me not to continue that behavior.

[Hugin]

63. Performance is all in who sets the standards of "Performance".

For example... "How many Sub-prime loans did you underwrite this year?" or "How many homeowners did you forclose on this year?" Anyone think those are performance?

[ozymandius]

11. Obama Says He’s ‘Fierce’ Free-Market Advocate, Rejects Critics

Obama Says He’s ‘Fierce’ Free-Market Advocate, Rejects Critics (Bloomberg).
Yves Smith's introduction to the article:

Read this and vomit. The reason big business criticize Obama’s policies is that they know how little stomach he has for a fight, that the more they demand, the more they will get. And I have to say, this plays into one of the themes of the book, how the expression “free markets” is intellectually bankrupt and serves as a Trojan horse for ideology.

From Bloomberg:

Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama said he and his administration have pursued a “fundamentally business- friendly” agenda and are “fierce advocates” for the free market, rejecting corporate criticism of his policies.

“The irony is, is that on the left we are perceived as being in the pockets of big business; and then on the business side, we are perceived as being anti-business,” Obama said in a Feb. 9 interview in the Oval Office with Bloomberg BusinessWeek, which will appear on newsstands tomorrow.

He said he would press for passage this year of free-trade agreements with South Korea, Panama and Colombia, though he cautioned that “different glitches” must first be negotiated with each country. He dismissed the idea of expanding the payroll tax break he proposed for small businesses to larger companies. And he offered a less-than-optimistic forecast for the legislative prospects of the “Volcker Rule” he embraced last month to bar commercial banks from proprietary trading.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDLk0lPYaSa0&pos=1

---

I feel that Obama has been far too willing to compromise away core principles on essential legislation. As for the business angle: Geithner and Summers are still employed at the White House to the dismay of the banksters' victims.

[Demeter]

41. What Principles? He Has None

He's just bargaining away OUR principles, in the name of "bipartisanship", "Free Markets" and other fairy tales.

[bread_and_roses]

46. Looks more like a "fierce advocate" of Corporate Welfare

to me. Alas that it is so. It's so painful to watch.

[Festivito]

12. Debt: 02/09/2010 12,349,467,132,738.49 (UP 1,564,178,206.76) (Tue)

(Up a bit. Debt seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good morning.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,840,806,790,629.45 + 4,508,660,342,109.04
UP 368,016,270.35 + UP 1,196,161,936.41

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.72, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,694,558 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $40,005.46.
A family of three owes $120,016.37. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 3,130,115,222.40.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,295,417,829.76.
The average for the last 32 days would be 2,151,954,215.40.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 89 reports in 132 days of FY2010 averaging 4.94B$ per report, 3.33B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,076 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.8 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
02/09/2010 12,349,467,132,738.49 BHO (UP 1,722,590,083,825.41 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,439,638,129,226.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,215,666,039,149.59 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
01/20/2010 +001,498,198,188.82 ------------*********
01/21/2010 -031,161,420,148.11 -
01/22/2010 -000,070,049,877.74 ----
01/25/2010 -000,041,466,126.01 ---- Mon
01/26/2010 +000,973,181,275.87 ------------********
01/27/2010 +000,063,416,019.94 ------------*******
01/28/2010 -024,245,578,618.07 -
01/29/2010 -000,416,981,206.21 ---
02/01/2010 +090,319,223,365.33 ------------********** Mon
02/02/2010 -000,066,012,400.47 ----
02/03/2010 +000,334,538,130.44 ------------********
02/04/2010 -009,677,289,403.68 --
02/05/2010 -000,081,816,346.60 ----
02/08/2010 +000,119,837,978.11 ------------******** Mon
02/09/2010 +000,368,016,270.35 ------------********

27,915,797,101.97 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4263435&mesg_id=4263487

[Festivito]

70. Debt: 02/10/2010 12,340,570,199,406.32 (DOWN 8,896,933,332.17) (Wed)

(Down a teensy-tiny bit. Debt seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,840,750,213,342.20 + 4,499,819,986,064.12
DOWN 56,577,287.25 + DOWN 8,840,356,044.92

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.72, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,703,198 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $39,975.52.
A family of three owes $119,926.55. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 2,607,200,067.86.
The average for the last 30 days would be 1,998,853,385.36.
The average for the last 33 days would be 1,817,139,441.24.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 90 reports in 133 days of FY2010 averaging 4.79B$ per report, 3.24B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,075 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.8 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
02/10/2010 12,340,570,199,406.32 BHO (UP 1,713,693,150,493.24 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,430,741,195,894.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,182,109,297,003.98 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
01/21/2010 -031,161,420,148.11 -
01/22/2010 -000,070,049,877.74 ----
01/25/2010 -000,041,466,126.01 ---- Mon
01/26/2010 +000,973,181,275.87 ------------********
01/27/2010 +000,063,416,019.94 ------------*******
01/28/2010 -024,245,578,618.07 -
01/29/2010 -000,416,981,206.21 ---
02/01/2010 +090,319,223,365.33 ------------********** Mon
02/02/2010 -000,066,012,400.47 ----
02/03/2010 +000,334,538,130.44 ------------********
02/04/2010 -009,677,289,403.68 --
02/05/2010 -000,081,816,346.60 ----
02/08/2010 +000,119,837,978.11 ------------******** Mon
02/09/2010 +000,368,016,270.35 ------------********
02/10/2010 -000,056,577,287.25 ----

26,361,021,625.90 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4264663&mesg_id=4264686

[AnneD]

14. Morning Marketeers...

:donut: and lurkers. Today is the big school board meeting. We are expecting a big angry crowd. I know those folks at our school are ticked beyond belief. Their bonus have been held at the last minute and honest folks are portrayed as thieves and liars. And if that isn't enough, they are called incompetent deadwood (even though we are a recognize school in the hood). And citizen response on the opinion pages are very hurtful to those that try their best.

I know so many teachers that win Teacher of the Year that will lose out in the proposed evaluations. One got along well with her principal but was still terrified of being fired. Now how well can you teach if you terrified of being fired. Will you every stand up for anything if you know you could be fired. Will you send a disruptive kid to the office and tick off the principal or let him stay in the class and decrease your teaching ability. You are damned if you do and damed if you don't.

The school year is barely half way through and I know over 10 teachers that have retired in the middle of the year (unheard of in Elem and MS) and 2 outstanding teachers that have transferred to suburban school this week. Their comment-I pass these school every day on my way to my school...it's not worth it anymore.

I know how they feel. I buy back all my time in September and I am seriously thinking about leaving then and will do the job search this summer.

I will post the fire works, but until here is a little something....

www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/6861282.html

Just another attempt to give America a 2 tier education system.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Roland99]

25. Rod Paige left a great legacy, eh?

Then again, the NEA really is a terrorist organization.

:eyes:

[AnneD]

68. Rod Paige was a coach...

that made good. It was all that talk about Al Gebra that confused him.

[DemReadingDU]

29. 400 teachers, wow

It's possible that these teachers have performed poorly, but it could also be a way to cut costs, and this is a quick way to do it.

[Roland99]

33. The Circuit City management method? Fire the experienced/better paid...

and hire the more moldable yearlings for a pittance?

[AnneD]

69. We suspect it is a way...

to get rid of folks. Every time they talk about bad teachers-the number keeps growing.

[Po_d Mainiac]

30. I spend a fair amount of time in a variety of schools

I volunteer teaching kids and young adults fly tying. The programs range from afternoon alternatives for grade school students to an incentive program at one of the State's youth reformatories.

The thought that educators get graded by student performance is absurd beyond belief. The problem is the raw material teachers have to work with....The students...

What people who don't spend time in schools don't get, is there are kids in the system that will need extensive training to be a common laborer.

Public schools don't get to pick and choose their students. There are kids that should be considered a success if they can read a coloring book and do simple addition by the end of 8th grade.

I saw a gr8 bumper sticker in a school yard yesterday: We will have made it as a society when schools are fully funded and the Navy holds bake sales to buy Aircraft Carriers

[UpInArms]

16. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 79.868 Change -0.160 (-0.21%)

Dollar Stabilized by Tempered Risk Trends, Bolstered by Bernanke’s Hawkish Commentary

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/daily_fundamentals/2010-02-11-0133-Dollar_Stabilized_by_Tempered_Risk.html

The dollar would pass through a series of phases Wednesday as risk appetite evolved. Still reeling from the sharp rally in risk appetite yesterday (a serious weight for the market’s favored safe haven currency), the greenback found a clear sense of stability through the overnight session as market participants reevaluated the possibilities for a Greek bailout. This is not to mean the market’s interests in this region’s stability have diminished. In fact, the focus on this specific affair has likely intensified considering officials’ postponement of a clear plan until tomorrow would stabilize most asset classes. Looking ahead to the resolution of this looming episode, there is likely no scenario in which risk appetite will come out unscathed. A cursory appreciation of this event presents to scenarios. The European authorities could extend support that falls short of what the market believes is necessary to prevent a Greek default and risk aversion will take root once again. Alternatively, officials can extend a sufficient plan that tempers fears of broader financial shockwaves. However, these are just surface appraisals of the situation. In truth, investor sentiment was deteriorating well before the EU troubles came to prominence. Realistically, it was the underlying reversal in risk appetite that set the market on to this specific threat rather than the other way around. And, when we come to this understanding, it is perhaps easier to appreciate the possibility that putting out this one fire will not prevent a bearish crowd from sparking the next one.

Turning from the vagaries of risk appetite to the tangible influence of scheduled and exogenous event risk; dollar traders had more than enough to work with today. On the docket, there were a few notable indicators to absorb. The December trade balance was the most recognizable report. According to the Commerce Department, the deficit of goods and services ballooned to $40.2 billion – the largest gap in a year. Looking at the details, the discouraging elements of the headline reading were somewhat absolved by the fact that exports rose 3.3 percent to a 14-month high. A 4.8 percent increase in imports would offset this figure; but altogether, the foreign and domestic demand this data implies is a bullish sign. Another release to take note of is Bloomberg’s Global Confidence survey for February. A measure of sentiment among market professionals, the pull back from the previous month’s record high (this series only goes back a few years) reflects the concern over Greece, a slow global recovery, and the global withdrawal of stimulus among other things. More interesting for currency traders was the component reading that suggested the group was the most bullish on the dollar since November of 2008. All this data aside though, the real fundamental interest for the greenback rested with Fed Chairman Bernanke’s remarks to the House Financial Services Committee. While the central banker would repeat his warning that low rates were necessary for an “extended period,” he also suggested meaningful and hawkish steps were on the way. The highlight from his statement was the suggestion that the Fed may opt to lift the discount rate ‘before long.’ While this is not the Fed Funds rate and Bernanke himself would say this wouldn’t alter their policy outlook; it is nonetheless a tangible step towards tightening. What’s more, he would said the bank may use interest rates on excess reserves as a guide rather than the usual benchmark rate for a while.

...more...

Dollar Bolstered by Carry Unwinding and the Specter of Rate Hikes

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/what_fed_watches/2010-02-10-2134-Dollar_Bolstered_by_Carry_Unwinding.html



The Economy and the Credit Market

Over the past week, investors from every asset class and every country have turned their focus over to the financial stability of Greece. The direct impact that a default from this single economy could have on the US or most other economies is limited; but when the market is already predisposed to threats to global financial stability, the threat is amplified. The resulting uncertainty reverses carry trade flows and bolsters demand for liquidity, both of which support the US dollar. As the market’s premier safe haven and given the sheer volume of carry interests that developed through 2009 (a significant portion of which was funded through cheap dollar-based loans); there is ample potential for a move towards risk aversion to bolster the greenback. However, this single event alone could lose steam relatively quickly. Would a meaningful bailout of the Greece fundamentally alter the course of underlying sentiment? Unlikely. The general conditions of fear and uncertainty is what has intensified the market’s distress when it comes to this economy’s potential default. In the meantime, while risk appetite carves its unpredictable path, the medium-term focus will shift increasingly towards the fundamentals that back the currency. Growth and interest rate potential are the biggest concerns for traders after risk appetite. A strong pace of annualized 4Q growth and a drop in the January unemployment rate has put the US further along the recovery curve. What’s more, the market is pricing in 72.5 bps of hikes over the coming 12 months (more than all the majors except the RBA and RBNZ).



...more...

[TalkingDog]

36. So, now they are buying scientific studies to explain their messes?

In a paper published in the Journal of Neuroscience, the researchers show that older investors make more errors when picking stocks compared to younger people playing the market. And that's not because of senility, memory lapses or other cognitive declines often associated with growing older.

Instead, the problem rests with a senior's ability to estimate value.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/02/100209100056.htm?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+sciencedaily+%28ScienceDaily%3A+Latest+Science+News%29



Of course we could always us this as an object lesson to those wanting to invest Social Security. i.e. It is risky to invest older people's money.

[TalkingDog]

37. Oh, and big gigundus thanks for the hearts!!!! n/t

[bread_and_roses]

45. I'd like also to thank whomever gave me a heart

much appreciated!

[Hugin]

54. Same here!

It made me :blush:!

[Demeter]

42. Value? VALUE!

WHAT value? The Corporations are also hollowed out shells. Their management has looted them and loaded them with debt until the walls of their buildings groan.

The young can pick fads. That's gambling, not investing.

[Demeter]

52. So, All It Took Was a Little Greece

to goose the market.

[Roland99]

53. Markets were Holding Out For A Gyro?

;-)

Dow 10,147 109 1.09%
Nasdaq 2,177 +29 +1.36%
S&P 500 1,078 +10 +0.96%
GlobalDow 1,864 +18 +0.95%
Gold 1,095 +18 +1.71%
Oil 75.26 +0.74 +0.99%

[Demeter]

65. You Asked for it!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbRbWGDrnjc



DEMETER--FOR ALL YOUR FOOD NEEDS!

[TheWatcher]

56. Believe me, it will not last.

Spain, Ireland, and a host of other countries are in trouble too.

Of course, don't mention any of this in GD. They'll just drool and say those countries can be "bailed out" too. It amazes me that people just think that every single country on this planet can be bailed out, no problem, with no consequences, and everything can eventually just get "back to normal."

I have never seen this kind of disconnect from reality before, Demeter. Ever.

And there seems to be a growing contingent that thinks this is some kind of "sports rivalry".

These days, every single Propaganda piece that comes out and is spun to be some kind of "recovery" news, there are always these ridiculous, high school mentality posts of "Ohhhhhhhhhhhhh, the glooooooooom and doooooomers woooooon't like THAAAAAAAAAT."

Here's a newsflash for the hypnotized and brainwahsed:

The people in this country who can SEE what is REALLY GOING ON don't hate "good news". We aren't "offended" by a recovery. We don't get "depressed and angered" because "the economy isn't failing fast enough"

to these weak-minded, propaganda soaked, broken people, I say this:

GROW UP.

What we HATE is an artificial, fictional "recovery" that is based on nothing but Propaganda, fake economic numbers and reports, debt monetization, and an artificial Stock market Bubble.

We HATE that NOTHING IS BEING DONE to improve the economy or address the issues.

We HATE that we are not being REPRESENTED by our duly elected.

We HATE that nothing is being done to provide REAL JOBS with a LIVING wage.

We HATE the fact that all we seem to get out of Washington is rhetoric and pretty words, rumors of programs, plans, and schemes that NEVER seem to come to fruition, and if they DO, they are something ENTIRELY different from what we were told.

We HATE the fact that all our government and the corporations which seem to own and operate it do NOTHING except paper over reality, delay the inevitable, and profit off the suffering of the rest of the 95% of this country.

And we are developing a STRONG dislike for those of you who would rather live in a false paradigm and eventually LOSE EVERYTHING, AND GO DOWN WITH THE SHIP, just so you can continue to FEEL GOOD, while expecting THE REST OF US US TO GO ALONG WITH YOU.

So no, we don't hate "Good News".

We just hate your fantasized version of it, which isn't real.

People need to get it through their fucking heads that this isn't Bears VS. Packers.

This is REAL LIFE. It is OUR FUTURE, The FUTURE OF OUR COUNTRY, and the FATE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS that is at stake.

[Demeter]

64. In Other Words, The News Ain't Good

Yeah, I know. I thought when Bush was gone reality would return, but it hasn't. Because Bush isn't gone. He just put on blackface and grew a few inches.

[fan of the arts]

67. Sad thing is they are grown-ups, completely brainwashed citizenbots

who love their money and hearts. Too bad they don't have the basic human decency to hold the worst criminals in this country's history accountable for 1 single crime. Nothing will ever improve in a lawless nation.

[Dr.Phool]

55. Press Release

PRESS RELEASE FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

DATE: 2/10/10

RE: Citizens Sue Progress Energy

CONTACT: Suzan Franks, 652 E. Dakota Ct., Hernando, FL 34442 Tel: [phone]


CITIZENS SUE PROGRESS ENERGY

BUSHNELL, FLORIDA

Individuals from the Florida group of Citizens for Ratepayers Rights filed a lawsuit in Bushnell, Sumter County, Florida on Monday, February 8, 2010 against Progress Energy Florida. The lawsuit seeks class action status to declare as unconstitutional under the Florida State Constitution the laws that were passed that allow Progress Energy to collect in advance all costs related to the construction of its nuclear power plant approved to be built in Levy County and disgorge all payments collected thus far – about $200 million and adding each month. The complaint was filed by central Florida Attorneys Frank B. Arenas, Esq., Coleman, and Alberto E. Lugo-Janer, Esq. of Windermere.
“We tried everything to get someone to listen – the Governor, House, Senate, PSC, Attorney General – anyone that would help stop the madness of allowing $17 Billion to be collected by Progress with no requirement that any service be provided nor the nuclear plant even be built at all,” said Suzan Franks from Hernando, founder of the non-profit group. “We hope the courts will see this for what it is – a privilege and lending of the state’s taxing power to a private corporation which is prohibited under the State Constitution.”
Mrs. Franks and others formed the group last October seeking to get others to be heard by the state representatives. “No one would listen; now Progress Energy will have to at least hear us in court” stated Mrs. Franks. She can be reached at [phone] for further information or view the website www.cfrpr.com to download and sign their petition.

[Robbien]

57. Congratulations

You certainly do rock!

What stinkers.

Google tells me that
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/florida/AP/story/1474560.html

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. -- Gov. Charlie Crist is urging lawmakers to reappoint J.R. Kelly as public counsel to represent consumers in utility rate cases.

Crist said Thursday that he didn't know whether Kelly's application for reappointment is in trouble but that he should keep his job because "he is clearly fighting for the consumers of our state."

Kelly recently helped persuade the Public Service Commission to approve only $75 million of a nearly $1.3 billion rate hike sought by Florida Power & Light Co. and just $132 million of a $500 million increase Progress Energy Florida had proposed.


------

and that's on top of this $17 Billion tax?

No wonder the WSJ has this story out today:
UPDATE: Progress Energy 4Q Profit Jumps 53% On Charges
http://news.google.com/news/search?pz=1&cf=all&ned=us&hl=en&q=%22PROGRESS+ENERGY%22&cf=all&scoring=n

[Dr.Phool]

61. Florida Light has a case of "ME TOO".

They saw what Progress pulled off, and ran right to the PSC.

I just got my copy of the suit today. I'm still going over it.

[Tansy_Gold]

58. +10,000!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

May this action prove to be an example for all other gouged rate-payers. (Think, California and Enron. . . . . .that money went SOMEWHERE. . . . . .)




Tansy Gold

[TheWatcher]

59. +100,0000

[DemReadingDU]

60. Congratulations!

and best of luck!



and many thanks for all my hearts
:loveya:

[Demeter]

66. You're Our Hero, Doc!

See above post with the gyro (pronounced "hero")