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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-08-04 07:25 AM
Original message
STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 8 March (#1)
Monday March 8, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 321
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 87 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 139 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 351
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 835
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 18
Recent Acquisitions: Skilling
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 5, 2004

Dow... 10,595.55 +7.55 (+0.07%)
Nasdaq... 2,047.63 -7.48 (-0.36%)
S&P 500... 1,156.87 +1.99 (+0.17%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.83% -0.20 (-4.91%)
Gold future... 401.60 +8.40 (+2.14%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P


||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [email protected]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-08-04 07:39 AM
Response to Original message
1. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood
THE DOW REPORT
"Confirmers and Non-Confirmers"


We have monitored the confirmations and non-confirmations between the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average for some time. But, what about other sectors that perhaps many do not watch or may not even be aware of? The concept of confirmation and non-confirmation is applicable not only from a Dow theory perspective, which is limited between the Industrials and the Transports, but is also applicable between other sectors. In a healthy market environment, we ideally should see the advance by the major market averages be confirmed by other market indexes. I have chosen several indexes that represent various economic sectors of the US economy. These sector indexes are comprised of stocks from like industries just like the well known Dow Jones Industrials and Transports.

A few weeks back I created a couple of portfolios that we periodically will be reviewing throughout the year. Similarly, I thought that I would pick a few sector indexes that we could also begin to monitor. By doing so, this will give us another tool that can be used to monitor the health of the current advance as well as the severity of any future declines. Understand that there are indeed more of these sector indexes than what I have included below. I just picked a few for the purpose of this exercise. I may add a few others as we move forward.

To begin with, we of course have the Dow Jones Industrial Average. As I illustrated before, trading cycle lows can be used for support levels to let you know when a trend is still intact or when it has potentially changed. I have marked each trading cycle low since the March ’03 low with a “t.” As you can see on the Industrials, each trading cycle low has held above the previous low. Therefore, the trend and cyclical structure of the Industrials have remained positive ever since March ’03.

good use of charts
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-08-04 07:45 AM
Response to Original message
2. Some Thoughts on a Great Market Crash - by Robert B. Gordon, Sc. D.
The stock markets of the world ring a bell at the close of trading that determines prices until the next trading day. The last price on each security holds for all the shares of that stock until the exchange opens for another trading day. Most trading days end with little price changes and excitement on the trading floor. Big news events can effect specific stock prices for a while. Major stock crashes occur infrequently and usually without warning. The last crash in the New York stock exchange occurred in October 1987 and struck with little or no warning. I have been reading very few crash predictions until I happened to read the words of Martin Goldberg who kindly agreed to my bringing them to your attention.

Please read his warning words and then go to my next paragraph where we will discuss the vulnerability of various asset classes to a crash and what changes if any need to be made in your portfolio. All the words in the next section are those of Martin Goldberg taken from his 12/04/2003 article in FSO.

<cut>
WHICH STOCKS AND FUNDS ARE MOST VULNERABLE IN A CRASH?

Selling will start in the most popular industries, e.g. Technology, and spread quickly to the most popular classes of growth mutual funds. Experts and insiders will use their knowledge to get out before the general public becomes aware of the grave situation. Investors in small funds with unusual portfolios such as the Permanent Portfolio fund will have far fewer redemption calls than the typical large growth funds. Dr. Hussman’s two hedged funds will get their first test in a declining market. My guess is that they will do quite well and gain in popularity.

more...
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-08-04 09:08 AM
Response to Reply #2
7. Good Morning Ozy, UIA and all. So do you suppose Buffett's comments
will move the markets at all this week? He made a lot of headlines, but the ones that mention the currency issues and stock overvaluation are a bit harder to find. Most just tend to mention his disdain for ShrubCo policies and the huge fortune his company made.


http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1078381580314

Investors wait for Buffett's next big idea

The last time Warren Buffett chose to sit on the sidelines with anywhere near this much cash, it was a precursor to the largest stock market bubble in history.

This time, the cautious investment strategy of the legendary "Sage of Omaha" could augur a similar correction in valuations or a giant impending acquisition. The worst-case scenario for investors is that he could simply be running out of ideas.


http://msnbc.msn.com/id/4473501/

NEW YORK - Berkshire Hathaway, the insurance and holding company run by legendary investor Warren Buffett, amassed a record cash pile of $36 billion in 2003 as the world's second-richest man once again shied away from soaring stock markets.

The mountain of cash or cash equivalents revealed in Berkshire's annual report, up from $13 billion in 2002, is the clearest sign yet of Mr. Buffett's continued skepticism about the valuations of companies and other investment opportunities.

It comes despite the benefits of a recovering US economy and better management of Berkshire's own insurance businesses, which combined to increase its pre-tax profits by 88 per cent to $12 billion

snip>
"Our capital is underutilized now ... It's a painful condition to be in -- but not as painful as doing something stupid," added Mr. Buffett. "We have purchased a number of businesses in recent years, though not enough to fully employ the gusher of cash that has come our way."
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-08-04 08:06 AM
Response to Original message
3. daily dollar watch
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.22 Change +0.04 (+0.05%)

related articles:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/FC09Dj01.html

Japan's continued dollar-buying intervention pushed its foreign-exchange reserves to a record $776.86 billion as of the end of February. (Japan Times)

FX Trading Surprise! The dollar sank like a stone on Friday after the non-farm payroll number was released. It came in at +25k, consensus was +125k, and the Street was looking for +200k. What in the heck are economists smoking to be able to miss the number by that much? Not only is the US job market broken, but so seems the whole game of econometric modeling. Isn’t it about time to stop referring to economics as a social "science"?

"… Market developments dictate the evolution of the conditions of supply and demand, not the other way around. If the process of adjustment does not lead to equilibrium, what happens to the conclusions of economic theory? The answer is that they remain valid as deductions but they lose their relevance to the real world. If we want to understand the real world, we must divert our gaze from a hypothetical final outcome and concentrate our attention on the process of change that we can observe all around us." George Soros

Bingo! And these comments Monday morning from Greg Weldon, of Weldon’s Money Monitor, sum up the dismal state of the US job market: Bottom Line: The Administration’s Treasury Secretary PLEDGED his "reputation" should the economy FAIL to produce 200,000 jobs monthly by year-end.

Ooops, FAILURE … as we note that average monthly employment growth has been a paltry 61,000 over the past six months. Indeed, no wonder the Employment-to-Population Ratio is plummeting, with population growth ALONE mandating a monthly rise of about 200,000 just to KEEP EVEN.

And NO WONDER the Fed is set to be patient, for the rest of the year, with Income failing to expand, job growth below the population growth. Does the jobs report change the dynamics for the dollar from bullish to bearish? Let’s examine the evidence, or at least our view of reality: 1) The bond market is saying yes. The two-plus-point move in the 30-year bond on Friday tells us traders have reversed their view - now the Fed appears likely to move later, rather than sooner.



2) The precarious case for US GDP growth says yes. The stunning increase in consumer credit in the face of declining income and fewer jobs ain't pretty for the likelihood of sustainable US economic growth. Consumer Credit for January surged an incredible $14.3 billion. To maintain life as they know it, and like it, consumers are piling on mountains of debt.

Bubble, bubble toil and trouble. Uncle Alan Greenspan's batch of bubble magic extends well beyond the stock and bond market. It has encased real estate and consumer debt. The game of identifying when Mr. Consumer will shrug is a tough one. But you have to believe that this isn't healthy.

We know, by experience, you can’t trade currencies based on interest rate or GDP forecasts and expect to win. (No, economists haven't learned that yet.) But now knowing what we know throws some MAJOR DOUBT into the underlying theme that the interest rate differential between the buck and the other majors will close anytime soon.

But for now, it’s probably no time to be bold. Our first job is to determine if the expectations of the players have changed - again. If we think they have, we will recommend you add to your existing dollar short position from last Thursday.

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/03/08/rtr1289547.html

Dollar's fate hazy despite Japanese intervention

excerpt:

And although the Ministry of Finance (MOF) is seen profiting due to the recent rally from its dollar purchases made around the time of the February low, many analysts believe Japan's massive intervention is in any case unsustainable.

The Bank of Japan, acting for the MOF, sold about 10.5 trillion yen ($93.61 billion) in the currency market in the first two months of this year -- more than half the annual record of 20 trillion yen in 2003.

To maintain the current level of intervention, the MOF makes an enormous issuance of five trillion yen of short-term financing bills (FBs) per week.

"I'm not convinced (the MOF) is going to continue doing this for several months coming. I think this is a trend that's particularly inherent ahead of the financial year-end. I don't think they can keep it up forever," said Naomi Fink, senior currency analyst at BNP Paribas.

Analysts think the MOF will continue to support the dollar until the end of the month to help Japanese companies dress up their books for the financial year-end on March 31, but will gradually loosen their grip from April.

"Once April comes, they will turn cautious about aggressive intervention with the G7 meeting coming up," said UFJ's Yamanaka, referring to the April 24 meeting in Washington of G7 finance ministers and central bank governors.

SHORT-TERM SUCCESS

Soichi Okuda, a senior economist at Sumitomo Corp, said that in the short run Japanese authorities may have succeeded in reversing the dollar's downtrend, given a huge shift in speculators' positions.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said speculators in yen futures built fresh net short positions in the week that ended on February 24 for the first time since early August.

...more...

No economic reports due out today, so we will see what happens.

Great 'Toon, Ozy! Rather grim outlook on the jobs issue.

Have a Great Day, Marketeers! :hi:
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-08-04 08:46 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. Warren Buffett keeps out of the depreciating dollar
http://www.guardian.co.uk/usa/story/0,12271,1164474,00.html

Warren Buffett, the second wealthiest man in the world, continued to bet against the dollar last year, increasing his company's ownership of foreign currencies to $12bn.

snip>
In the 24-page letter, sent out on Saturday, the 73-year-old, returned to many of his favourite themes. He attacked the Bush administration's tax cuts and railed against greedy chief executives, corrupt mutual fund managers and ineffective independent directors.

snip>
Berkshire Hathaway reluctantly entered the foreign currency for the first time in 2002 and Mr Buffett said it had enlarged its position last year, increasing its holdings in five unnamed currencies. He put the blame on the ballooning US trade deficit. He said that in late 2002 foreign investors began "choking" on the flood of dollars.

"As an American, I hope there is a benign ending to this problem," he said, though he warned that the situation was unlikely to improve. "Whether foreign investors like it or not, they will continue to be flooded with dollars. The consequences of this are anybody's guess. They could, however, be troublesome - and reach, in fact, well beyond currency markets."

snip>
....More recently he has taken to buying businesses outright as it became more difficult to find undervalued stocks. Equity holdings are now down to 50% of Berkshire Hathaway's net worth.

Last year, the company again stayed away from the equities market. Mr Buffett said Berkshire had bought some shares in the bank Wells Fargo but otherwise had not changed its position in its top six holdings. "Brokers don't love us," he said. "We own pieces of excellent businesses but their current prices reflect their value."

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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-08-04 08:16 AM
Response to Original message
4. The Unrecognizable Recovery
The Bush crowd couldn't have been more pleased with the timing of the Martha Stewart verdict on Friday afternoon.

The big news heading into the weekend was almost guaranteed to be the awful jobs report released by the Labor Department Friday morning. The White House needed a world-class distraction and the Stewart jury, eager to wrap things up before the weekend, obliged. It strolled in, as if on cue, with a verdict of guilty on all counts. Distractions don't get much bigger.

<cut>
A number of demographic groups are getting absolutely hammered. A new study by Andrew Sum, director of the Center for Labor Market Studies at Northeastern University, found historic lows in the reported labor force participation of 16- to 19-year-olds. According to the study, "The estimated 36.8 percent employment rate for the nation's teens was the lowest ever recorded since 1948."

<cut>
What is happening in some sectors of the black community is catastrophic. The Community Service Society studied employment conditions among black men in New York City. Using the employment-population ratio, which is the proportion of the working-age population with a job, it found — incredibly — that nearly one of every two black men between the ages of 16 and 64 was not working last year.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/08/opinion/08HERB.html
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-08-04 08:53 AM
Response to Original message
6. Gold dips in Europe, cenbanks agree new sales pact
Glad that's out of the way now.

http://www.forbes.com/business/newswire/2004/03/08/rtr1289812.html

LONDON, March 8 (Reuters) - * Gold dips slightly in Europe in
a muted reaction to the signing of a new Central Bank Gold Sales Agreement, raising total official
disposals to 2,500 metric tons over five years from 2,000 tonnes in the expiring accord.

* Spot gold <XAU=> trading at $399.00/399.70 a troy ounce by 1220 GMT, compared with $400.90/401.90
quoted late Friday in New York.

* The new accord will start in September 2004, replacing one agreed in 1999, which expires
on that date. Analysts broadly neutral on new accord, which fell within expectations.
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-08-04 09:19 AM
Response to Reply #6
8. Bit more details now hitting the press
Edited on Mon Mar-08-04 09:22 AM by 54anickel
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3543043.stm

The deal commits the European Central Bank, and the banks of every European Union nation except the UK and Denmark, to sell only 500 tonnes a year.

The agreement extends a 1999 deal till 2009, and may help keep prices high.

Gold operates as a "safe haven" for investors in troubled times, and is particularly in demand at the moment in the face of a weak US dollar.

The 15 signatories said gold would "remain an important element of global monetary reserves".

Reserves

The biggest holder of gold in the world - the US - is not a party to the deal, which applies only to the European Union.

The UK, which signed up to the 1999 agreement, is also not included this time around, since its government has said it has no intention of selling any gold during the next five years.

snip>
And the pace of sales is likely to be dictated largely by movements on the world's currency markets to bring in foreign currency at the best rate possible.

Nations' reserves are these days mostly used to support or weaken the country's currency, by buying it or selling it in the open market - a function for which gold is unsuited.

edit to add:

A few more details here
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=awrlq0144Em4&refer=home

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KoKo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-08-04 10:49 AM
Response to Original message
9. Railroad Tracks on Stocks Chart Show Rally Losing Steam.
This is the first I've heard of this pattern...Railroad Tracks??? It's an interesting article though in that some of us have noticed this retracement from prior week's low to high and then back again, but I for one, didn't know there was a name for this pattern.

==================================
Investor's Business Daily
Railroad Tracks On Stock's Chart Show Rally Losing Steam
Friday March 5, 10:17 am ET
By Jonah Keri
The sight of a train rolling down railroad tracks can conjure up all sorts of thoughts and emotions.

It can bring to mind adventure, as passengers traverse the country. It can evoke commerce, as the train carries its cargo to its next destination.

If you see railroad tracks on a stock chart, though, that should trigger another thought: It's time to sell.

A railroad-track pattern typically occurs near the top of a climax run. In such cases, a stock retraces the prior week's wide price spread, from the prior week's low to its high. It then closes the week up a bit, on heavy volume.

The pattern is called railroad tracks because on a weekly chart you'll see two parallel vertical lines. The hash marks denoting the weekly closes are not far from each other.

That kind of action indicates selling by big-money investors, with lofty volume accompanying minimal price progress for the week.

"When you see a stock just not making any progress, with those big spreads, that late into a run, that's another cue" to consider selling, said Mike Doran, chief strategist at Shingle Springs, Calif.-based Sierra Capital Planning.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/040305/corner_1.html
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-08-04 03:55 PM
Response to Reply #9
18. Oh boy, Is this the start of something big? Let's hope not! n/t
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aneerkoinos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-08-04 11:15 AM
Response to Original message
10. Rhodium goes looney
Kitco is showing that Rhodium has jumped $100, from $650 to $750 in a day!?? It's supposed to be rather volatile commodity, but still... What's up?
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-08-04 04:16 PM
Response to Reply #10
21. Here's a possibility - Ethanol Yields Hydrogen
:shrug:

http://www.technologyreview.com/articles/rnb_030804.asp

Fuel cells that convert the chemical bonds between hydrogen atoms to energy are about three times more efficient than combustion engines that burn hydrocarbons. And fuel cells powered with pure hydrogen carry out the conversion cleanly.

The trick is finding a cost-effective way to produce hydrogen without polluting the environment.

Researchers from the University of Minnesota and the University of Patras in Greece have devised a way to extract hydrogen directly from ethanol, which would make for a renewable energy cycle. Ethanol is produced by converting biomass like cornstarch to sugar, then fermenting it.

snip>
The researchers solved the flammability problem by using an automotive fuel injector to vaporize a mix of ethanol, water and air so quickly that there's no time for flames to start. They solved the catalyst problem accidentally, by trying rhodium-ceria rather than the plain rhodium used to extract hydrogen from fuels like natural gas and diesel.

The method is ready for use now, according to the researchers. The cost of ethanol is currently about fifty percent more than gasoline. Eventually wood chips, grass clippings or crop wastes could be used to make lower-cost ethanol.

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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-08-04 12:43 PM
Response to Original message
11. market numbers and blather
Dow 10,615.62 +20.07 (+0.19%)
Nasdaq 2,042.52 -5.11 (-0.25%)
S&P 500 1,156.81 -0.05 (0.00%)
10-Yr Bond 3.787% -0.044


12:30PM: Mostly sideways in the last half an hour, with the Dow continuing to outperform the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq on a relative basis... In the Dow, 19 of its 30 components are in the green, but the bulk are little changed... Note that the Dow's standing in positive territory can be attributed in its entirety to gains in the top three advancers: Caterpillar (CAT 78.16 +1.79), United Technologies (UTX 91.39 +1.49), and Procter & Gamble (PG 102.83 +1.07)... CAT was upped to Neutral from Underweight at Prudential after being "shocked and awed" by a recent visit with management...

Eastman Kodak (EK 27.05 -0.74) is the biggest laggards after announcing its acquisition of NexPress Solutions L.L.C. and revising FY04 EPS to $2.05-2.35 (consensus of $2.36) versus the prior guidance of $2.25-2.55...NYSE Adv/Dec 1800/1333, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1650/1343

12:00PM: After a short-lived uptick at market open, the major averages have spent the bulk of the morning vacillating near the unchanged line... A batch of upgrades in the semiconductor sector, as well as a Reuters report that Wal-Mart (WMT 60.88 +0.64) is on track for same store sales growth of 4-6%, have failed to incite a meaningful rally, with today's trade maintaining the same spiritless tone that has been noted through most of February... Accordingly, volume is moderate at best, reflecting a lack of conviction on the part of participants...

Keep in mind, though, that interest rates, which have declined to their lowest level since July on the heels of Friday's worse than expected Employment report, are supporting the market by increasing the current value of future earnings and helping to justify current valuations... To that effect, the 10-year note is up 17/32, bringing its yield down to 3.79%...
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-08-04 02:15 PM
Response to Reply #11
13. Market numbers at 2:11 (what happened?)
everything in the red

Dow 10,592.97 -2.58 (-0.02%)
Nasdaq 2,025.54 -22.09 (-1.08%)
S&P 500 1,153.10 -3.76 (-0.33%)
10-Yr Bond 3.785% -0.046


dollar dropping (where's that BoJ prop?)

Last trade 88.10 Change -0.08 (-0.09%)
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-08-04 04:51 PM
Response to Reply #11
23. WHAT? That last paragraph - WTF is that all about?
Keep in mind, though, that interest rates, which have declined to their lowest level since July on the heels of Friday's worse than expected Employment report, are supporting the market by increasing the current value of future earnings and helping to justify current valuations...

What happen to P&E, balance sheet, healthy corporate fundamentals being the basis for stock valuation? This is nuts!!! This is what it's all about now?
:mad: :grr: :nuke:
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nolabels Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-08-04 02:03 PM
Response to Original message
12. If you say enough times, does it come true?
http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/24180/story.htm

Snow: Economy Improving, Energy a Worry
USA: March 8, 2004


HOLLYWOOD, Fla. - U.S. economic activity is gathering steam but excessive reliance on imported oil poses a threat not only to growth but also to national security, U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow was set to warn.


U.S. officials who previewed Snow's address to the Maritime Trades Department, which represents U.S. shipping interests, said he was urging it was time to look again at letting oil companies drill in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR).

A similar proposal was thwarted by Democrats in the U.S. Senate last year for fear it would cause environmental damage. However, rising imported oil prices that are expected to keep U.S. gasoline prices up this summer could make energy security a potential issue for November's presidential elections.

"Through greater access to reliable and dependable U.S. energy supplies like ANWR we lessen our dependence on supplies from other, less secure, parts of the world," Snow said. "We make ourselves less dependent on those uncertain supplies from places where tensions run high and where disruption is always possible."
(snip)
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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-08-04 02:19 PM
Response to Original message
14. Treasury yields 'not affected by Japan'
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1078381608991

There is no direct link between Japan's foreign exchange intervention and the direction of US Treasury yields, the Bank for International Settlements said on Monday.

In its quarterly report, the bank examined the correlation between Japanese authorities' buying of dollars and 10-year Treasury yields.

US Treasury yields have edged higher recently on speculation that any strength in the dollar would cut back Japan's dollar buying, and therefore lessen its buying of Treasuries.

"While the asserted importance has gained currency through the force of repetition, robust direct evidence for it is not so easy to come by," concluded Robert McCauley and Guorong Jiang for the BIS.

The report followed an attempt last week by Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve, to play down the bond market's concerns over the significance of Asian bond buying, by noting that the buying had been concentrated in short-term maturities, where the size of that market dwarfed the proportion held by Asian official accounts.

...more...


Guess that message is: Don't believe your lying eyes. :evilgrin:
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-08-04 04:53 PM
Response to Reply #14
24. Who ya gonna believe, ME or your own eyes? n/t
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KoKo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-08-04 03:07 PM
Response to Original message
15. 3:06 and the Nasdaq is looking sickly. Where's the PPT.....bad day here.
Edited on Mon Mar-08-04 03:17 PM by KoKo01
2.00PM: Unable to move higher and set new 52-week highs through most of the session, the market is slipping lower... Accordingly, the Dow is now hugging the flat line, the S&P 500 is showing mild losses, while the Nasdaq is down over 1.0%... While the bulk of the sectors are in the red now, the banking sector is basically unchanged and is outperforming the broader market on a relative basis... The banking group is an influential one in determining market direction and its continued resilience will limit the extent of losses in the blue-chip averages...

Note that the banking group traded to a new 52-week high today, boosted by the notable drop in interest rates since Friday on the heels of the lower than expected Employment report...NYSE Adv/Dec 1741/1458, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1496/1561

1:35PM: The indices are slipping lower, with the S&P 500 having dipped into the red again and the Nasdaq having weakened to a fresh session low...
http://finance.yahoo.com/?u

Dow 10,553.77 -41.78 (-0.39%)
Nasdaq 2,014.89 -32.74 (-1.60%)
S&P 500 1,149.71 -7.15 (-0.62%)
10-Yr Bond 3.779% -0.052
NYSE Volume 983,760,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,636,965,000
Quote data provided by Reuters
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1488 (43%) 1192 (36%)
Declines 1765 (51%) 1912 (58%)
Unchanged 165 (4%) 159 (4%)
Up Vol* 335 (36%) 383 (24%)
Down Vol* 561 (61%) 1139 (73%)
Unch. Vol* 17 (1%) 30 (1%)
New Hi's 358 205
New Lo's 4 5
*in millions





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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-08-04 03:52 PM
Response to Reply #15
17. I guess between the lack of reports, Martha and Warren, the markets
just have no "exuberance" today.
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-08-04 04:38 PM
Response to Reply #15
22. I usually don't look for the PPT unless the markets are at some
important technical or psychological point. That when I tend to reference back to Wrap ups by Ike Iossif and Tim Wood at Financial Sense. Since they Nasdaq couldn't rally over the 2061 technical mark, it's fairly safe to let it fall back to the psychologically important 2000. They'll try to keep it above that. If it falls below that then the channel support technicals become important and the next target for intervention.

If you believe in that PPT stuff that is. Could just be geo-magnetic storms. :evilgrin: :tinfoilhat: :hi:
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-08-04 03:51 PM
Response to Original message
16. US Treasuries extend rally despite upcoming supply
http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/03/08/rtr1290528.html

NEW YORK, March 8 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries extended a massive rally on Monday, squeezing yields to eight-month lows as investors bet that a still-jobless recovery means the Federal Reserve will refrain from raising interest rates in 2004.

"We've taken the Fed out of the market for this year," said Mark Mahoney, Treasury market strategist at UBS.

The surge in prices after Friday's surprisingly weak jobs report means makes the debt up for grabs in this week's Treasury auction considerably pricier than in other recent sales.

But traders were still expecting solid demand from the many traders who were caught short of Treasuries ahead of last week's payrolls figures.

The sale will feature $16 billion of new five-year notes on Wednesday and $11 billion of reopened 10-year notes on Thursday instead of the expected $12 billion.

Dealers are hoping Asian central banks will put their dollars to work, particularly the Bank of Japan, which is thought to have bought up to $20 billion on Friday alone.

more...
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-08-04 04:00 PM
Response to Reply #16
19. I don't know if I'm buying into this report -
Treasury yields 'not affected by Japan'

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1078381608991

There is no direct link between Japan's foreign exchange intervention and the direction of US Treasury yields, the Bank for International Settlements said on Monday.

snip>
"While the asserted importance has gained currency through the force of repetition, robust direct evidence for it is not so easy to come by," concluded Robert McCauley and Guorong Jiang for the BIS.

The report followed an attempt last week by Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve, to play down the bond market's concerns over the significance of Asian bond buying, by noting that the buying had been concentrated in short-term maturities, where the size of that market dwarfed the proportion held by Asian official accounts.

However, Sean Callow, strategist at IDEAGlobal, pointed to the Bank of Japan's own data last week, which showed the bank holding an unusually high proportion of its reserves in deposit accounts - funds that it could yet turn into Treasuries.

"This suggests there is still pent-up demand for US bonds, even though the currency impact will have passed," Mr Callow said. "The BoJ is under no obligation to immediately buy Treasuries; it could be waiting for a better price."
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-08-04 04:10 PM
Response to Original message
20. Snowjob -
Snow: US tax cuts would ensure growth for years

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/03/08/rtr1290262.html

WASHINGTON, March 8 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow on Monday stumped for the continuation of White House-backed tax cuts set to expire by the end of the decade, saying they would ensure growth well into the future.

"The cuts have been the lynch pin in the improving performance of the economy, and making those tax cuts permanent is the surest thing we can do to sustain the economy on a good, strong growth path for this year and the years beyond," Snow said in prepared remarks before a gathering of U.S. state treasurers here.

"I am confident that if we do that, we are going to continue to have above-normal growth for the American economy for a good stretch of years ahead of us," he said.

snip>
"I am confident that we will see good jobs pick up in the months ahead, as indicated by all the private-sector surveys which indicate strong jobs growth over the course of the next year," he said.


Snow says intervention no way to strong currency

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=economicNews&storyID=4521513

WASHINGTON, March 8 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Monday that China definitely was moving toward a floating currency exchange rate and warned that no country could maintain a strong currency through market interventions.

Speaking to a state treasurers' group, Snow repeated that the United States backs a strong dollar and believes that governments should intervene in currency markets as little as possible to affect values.

"We favor a strong dollar but the relative value of currencies is best set through open, competitive currency markets," Snow said in response to a question. "No currency can really be regarded as strong if it depends on life support, if it's being propped up by intervention."

snip>
"We're strong advocates of flexibility -- open, competitive currency markets -- and we think it's the best regime for currencies," Snow said. "That's the message we've taken to the Chinese ... urging them to move off the peg, get rid of the peg, let greater flexibility apply and eventually move to a float."

Snow said China has "embraced the idea that they want to go to fluctuating rates," but acknowledged it will take some time to do so, since China's financial system must be braced up.

On domestic issues, Snow said the U.S. economy currently enjoyed "unusually solid" fundamentals, including lofty rates of new-home ownership and low interest rates. But he said the dearth of new jobs -- only 21,000 jobs were created in February -- was "a mystery," though he still expected a pickup in coming months.

One factor he cited was the lingering bad taste in investors' mouths from corporate scandals in the 1990s and afterward including misleading balance sheets and lying by chief executives.


China to keep yuan policy for "long time"

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's fixed currency policy will be around for "a long time to come" and speculators that bet on a yuan appreciation will end up paying a heavy price, the country's foreign exchange chief said.

In a strongly worded defence of the yuan's long-standing peg to the dollar, Guo Shuqing, head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said economic conditions that have encouraged speculators eyeing a yuan appreciation were more likely to turn around and burn them before the government made any change to its exchange rate policy.

"Betting on a renminbi (yuan) appreciation is likely to (end up costing) an enormous price," the Xinhua news agency on Monday quoted Guo as saying. The warning was directed at Chinese companies and residents, the agency said.

snip>
"China's managed floating exchange rate system conforms to the realities of China and it will continue for a long time to come," Guo was quoted as saying.

Over the past few days, at the annual session of the National People's Congress, Guo has emerged as a de facto spokesman on the currency, making a string of statements defending the peg while holding out the prospect of gradual reform.


China has no plan to revalue yuan soon

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-03/08/content_312672.htm

Deputy governor Li Ruogu of the People's Bank of China, the central bank, said on Sunday China has no plan to revalue the yuan in the near future and believes the pegged currency is correctly valued.

Speaking on the sidelines of a bimonthly meeting of central bank governors from the G10 industrialized nations and major emerging markets, Li also said China will closely monitor inflation although the domestic economy is not overheating.

Asked by reporters whether there was an imminent plan to revalue the yuan, Li said: "No ... I don't think there is pressure."

Asked if he thought the yuan was correctly valued now, he replied "Certainly I do."

snip>
As part of financial sector reform, China has been pushing the "Big Four" state banks to whip operations and assets into shape before global banks gain near unfettered access to the Chinese market by late 2006 in line with World Trade Organization commitments.

On China's reform progress, Li said: "It could be a very long process, or short process, depending on all the preparations for the reform and how good work we can do for the next couple of years. (The reform progress is) so far so well."


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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-08-04 05:01 PM
Response to Reply #20
25. LOL!
"The cuts have been the lynch pin in the improving performance of the economy, and making those tax cuts permanent is the surest thing we can do to sustain the economy on a good, strong growth path for this year and the years beyond," Snow said in prepared remarks before a gathering of U.S. state treasurers here.

"I am confident that if we do that, we are going to continue to have above-normal growth for the American economy for a good stretch of years ahead of us," he said.


Someone give this man a mike - he's a freakin' comedian!

:bangingheadondesk:

If we have more of this "strong economy" bullshit, I think I may starve to death. Wonder if those numbers are going to taste as bad as they actually are?
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-08-04 05:06 PM
Response to Reply #25
27. Yeah! Whatever he's taking or smoking - I want to get me some of that
"Happy Stuff"

:spank: :smoke:
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-08-04 05:04 PM
Response to Original message
26. Closing numbers & blather
Dow 10,529.48 -66.07 (-0.62%)
Nasdaq 2,008.78 -38.85 (-1.90%)
S&P 500 1,147.20 -9.66 (-0.84%)

10-Yr Bond 3.776% -0.055


4:20PM : It was another uninspiring session, which in one blow erased the entirety of last week's gains for the Dow and the Nasdaq... The latter was especially hard-hit, with losses of 1.9% to show for the day... The semiconductor sector spearheaded the Nasdaq's decline ahead of Texas Instruments' (TXN 30.60 -0.87) mid-quarter update, with the SOX index closing down 3.8%...

The group's decline was particularly notable in the face of multiple upgrades in the group this morning, which clearly failed to incite buying interest, much like a Reuters report indicating that Wal-Mart's (WMT 60.66 +0.42) same store sales are running in the 4-6% range... Accordingly, the major averages spent the entire session in a steady drift lower, although the losses in the blue-chip averages were limited by the banking sector... While the latter closed the session in the red, it outperformed the broader market, supported by the sharply lower interest rates, which came on the heels of Friday's worse-than-expected Employment report... To that effect, the bond market continued to rally in today's session, with the 10-year note closing up 19/32, bringing its yield down to 3.78%, the lowest level since July...

The bulk of the sectors closed the session in the red, with laggards of note including the hardware, internet, networking, semiconductor, software, telecom, biotech, broker/dealer, steel and gold groups... Leaders to the upside were more difficult to come by, but included the healthcare equipment and leisure products sectors...NYSE Adv/Dec 1392/1906, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1066/2108

snip>
As mentioned previously, the bond market rallied on the heels of Friday's weaker than expected Employment report, which altered expectations about Fed policy... Specifically, prior to the report, fed funds futures trading implied that the Fed would raise interest rates twice by year-end, to 1 1/2%... Now, futures don't even imply a 1/4% hike by October...NYSE Adv/Dec 1448/1823, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1124/2017

snip>
The price of gold was little changed at $400.90/oz (down $0.70) after hedge funds and other large speculators reduced bullion holdings to a seven-month low...

Have a great evening Marketeers :hi: Hope to see you all back again tomorrow. This may prove to be an interesting week.
Guess we'll have to hope for some geo-magnetic storms or something to perk the markets up a bit. :evilgrin:


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