Nader reprises spoiler role: Run seen hurting Kerry

[hedgetrimmer]

~SNIP~

By David R. Guarino
Friday, March 5, 2004

Independent presidential hopeful Ralph Nader now attracts enough votes to swing the election against Sen. John F. Kerry , apparently proving the nightmare Democrats long feared, a new poll shows.

In a national Associated Press poll taken as Kerry won nine out of 10 Super Tuesday contests, Kerry is edged out by President Bush by 1 point.

Election 2000 spoiler Nader gets 6 percent of the vote, easily enough to tilt the race - again.

Democrats and Kerry aides rushed to dismiss the findings, saying the Nader voters are just Bush opponents who don't yet know the Bay State senator but will come around before Election Day.

... more ...
link: http://news.bostonherald.com/election2004/view.bg?articleid=1252

[onehandle]

1. Nader will be at his Nadir by election day. nt

[Cloud]

2. I've said it before and I'll say it again.

If you vote for Nader and Bush is reselected in a close election then you can't bitch.

6% is awfully high. You would think many would see how important this election is and back Kerry. Hopefully they will come to their senses and Nader won't get any more than a percent or two.

Kerry is much more progressive than Bush. Many won't vote for him just because of the IWR.

Well, to all those that back Nader if you vote for him this time and with several supreme court judges set to retire we can have problems for the next 20-30 years.

[fearnobush]

10. "Do you lean" is a biased form of questioning.

"If the election for president were held today and the candidates were George W. Bush, the Republican, and John Kerry, the Democrat, and Ralph Nader, the independent, for whom would you vote?" If "other" or "not sure": "Do you lean more toward Kerry, Bush or Nader?"


Obviously I lean more towards Nader, But I would never vote for him this election year. The 6% for Nader is really a refection of one's political view, not their intent to vote.

[reprobate]

3. I predict nader will drop out before the election.

He just about said as much right after he announced. I am NOT a nader supporter and never have been, but I thing he hates bush so much that he will be campaigning against him to turn people away from him, and drop out before the election throwing his support to Kerry.

[Crachet2004]

22. I would like to believe "Saint Ralph" would do that....

but I think he's bought. The GOP will expect a return on their 'investment' in Ralph. Nader has no freewill-he sold it.

[depakid]

4. Talk about flamebait for the Nader Haters...

That's so typical of the American media- Write a sensationalized headline then cite bullshit poll numbers like they were the Gospel truth. Well, I have news- anyone- and I mean anyone who believes that AP poll reflects reality needs to have their head examined before someone suckers them into a very bad business deal.

[murielm99]

5. Six percent of what and where?

Will he even be able to get on the ballot in enough states to get six percent of anything?

[depakid]

6. Exactly

When I see such obviously baseless numbers like this taken seriously, it makes me question either the reporter's intelligence or their motives. Maybe both.

[TreasonousBastard]

8. He couldn't get 5% last time...

so where's all this support coming from now?

And with no party to run on?

It's all bullshit. Makes a good story though.

As if Bush/Kerry isn't interesting enough.

[hedgetrimmer]

9. the truth of how posters feel is important in regards to how they see

the news, how they interpurt information... you have looked through the information, good for you, thank you for posting and yes it is very typical of the american media... the republs are using it to attack kerry's credibility and the dems use it to attack the nader-ites... it is flame-bait material and that is why i posted it...

many blessings-

[fearnobush]

7. Once again,

This poll is bullshit, any number of AP pollsters could have polled themselves to boost a Nader controversy. The man did nothing to jump from les than 1% to 6% in a weeks time. The AP is push polling you for a story.

[notbush]

11. The poll numbers are B.S right

So why does this thread even exist?

[Rowdyboy]

12. Because someone chose to post a poll

so we could decide for ourselves if its important, without being spoon-fed our opinions like those on the right.

[tinrobot]

13. Get on the bus.

I'm to the point of wanting to use phrase made popular by Chimpy towards the Nader suporters.

Either you're with us, or you're against us.

My point is that if you want to save this country from Bush's radical agenda, you better darn well get on the bus.

[nodehopper]

15. that phrase was made popular long ago by Stalin

how appropriate. I mean w/r/t Chimpy.

[Sufi Marmot]

14. That poll is meaningless until we know....

...in how many states Nader is actually on the ballot. He's running as an independent, which, as far as I can tell, makes it much harder for him to get on the ballot in many states. Relevant thread and some interesting links here.

Ironically, the Green Party candidate is already on the ballot in most states.

-SM

[OutlawCorporatePolls]

17. its all about the margin of error..

The margin of error is +/- 3.5 for registered voters.

bush - 46
kerry - 45
nader - 6

so it really could be..

bush - 42.5, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, or 49.5
kerry - 41,.5, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, or 48.5
nader - 2.5, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, or 9.5

The margin of error always affects the lower numbers the most. A 3.5% margin of error on Nader allows for 3 to become 9 percent which is actually a 300% swing. Whereas, for bush, a 43 to 49 move is only a 114% swing.

Within the margin of error, they can tell you just about whatever they want to about lesser candidates.

[Sufi Marmot]

18. But Nader might not even be on the ballot in any number of states...

...which invalidates the data entirely. A significant portion of that 6% might not even have the option of voting for him.

-SM

[jsw_81]

16. I think most of the Nader "supporters" are bitter Dean/Kucinich people

The vast majority of them will come to their senses and vote for Kerry in November. Only the kooks and crazies will actually cast a vote for Nader.

[DeepModem Mom]

19. "now attracts enough votes to swing...election against...Kerry"

Frightening, and infuriating.

[rman]

20. Nader has as of yet failed to explain

how his running for prez will help rather then damage the cause of the Left.

I agree with him that much of the Dem party is hardly better then the RW, but i hope he agrees with me that the Dem party is indeed the *lesser* of these evils, and that his 'stealing' of Dem votes is more likely to help the RW then it is to help the Left.

So far Naders arguments for running sound rhetorical; "Dems don't worry, cheer up" doesn't explain how his candidacy helps the Left.

[MadHound]

21. Do you wish to nullify the Green/Nader vote, and ensure a victory in Nov?

Then what the Democratic party needs to do is give people something to vote FOR, rather than relying on fearmongering and bully boy tactics to bring the votes in. Go out and co-opt a couple of the planks from the Green party platform, you know, something like universal health care, or a push for a living wage. Most of the Nader/Green voters a pragmatic enough that when they see they have something to vote FOR, they will come back and vote Dem.

This would also energize a large percentage of the non-voting majority. A lot of folks who don't vote are so poor and downtrodden that they feel that neither party has their interests at heart, that they're going to get screwed no matter who is in office. Yet you could get twenty-twenty five percent of these non-voters coming in if you offered up something that would dramatically improve their lives, like universal health care. That's 12 million new votes for Kerry, with long coattails for the rest of the Dem pack. Think about it, that's a landslide for Kerry and a majority in both houses in Congress.

Its all about compromise folks, and giving people something to vote FOR, rather than relying on people to simply vote against. Apparently the Dems didn't learn this lesson in '00, so it was repeated in '02. Does there have to be more repetition in '04, or will the Dem powers that be finally wake up to the fact that they can no longer take peoples' vote for granted?

[Crachet2004]

24. You are so right!

I support Kerry because I feel I have to. One more time will I go through this general election rigamarole...mostly motivated by a fear of further assaults on what freedoms and liberty we have left-Patriot, in short!

But yeah, when people see Clintonista policies coming from the Democrat Party, what can you expect? Why not just vote GOP...or not vote, which is what most do. Not voting is a vote too! That man had a majority in both Houses...and blew it! Maybe on purpose, so Naftaa could pass! Then he gutted welfare. And he blew the best chance we've had in a generation for healthcare...turned it into a negative issue for us in the offyear elections! You have to be TRYING, to screw up that bad!

And people see it! They are not stupid. This should be a landslide year for Democrats...and here is how to do it:

Bring the troops home. From everywhere. Nobody understands why we have to be the 'Policeman' of the world. It is EXTREMELY unpopular, and always has been. Blame it on the corporations. Like this: 'If multi-national corporations and oil companies need security forces to do their dirty work, tell them to call Wackenhut! The US military is no longer available!' Get mad about this, and mean it!

Threaten protectionist trade policies and run against Walmart. Make their use of illegals into a BFD...and then tie it into the whole 'guest-worker/slave-labor/jobs-lost' issue. Find out how many slaves Ken Lay employs in his home, and thereby get our buddy Ken involved as an issue! Use your own imagination as to the many different ways we can hurt them with this, once Ken is dragged out from under HIS rock!

Blame a lack of healthcare on greedy corporations...HMOs', insurance companies, pharmaceuticals, etc... Promise investigations. Threaten prison terms! Act like you are pissed and mean to do something about it!

Promise energy independence. Blame a lack of independence today on oil company influence! Threaten investigations! Promise prison! Blame Dick Cheney personally!

When they say our plan will cost too much, just laugh at them, publically. With their deficit we can afford to! Laugh at them every chance we can...prick their pomposity and fearmongering tactics! Get the American People laughing at them, as they should, and they will deflate like a balloon!

Do all these things, and we will win by 20 points. I promise.

[DennisReveni]

25. Democratic party needs to do is give people something to vote FOR

I agree.
Ted Rall has this to say,
http://www.msnbc.com/comics/editorial_content.asp?sFile=tr040306

Which is right on the money about Democrats.
And on Real Time last night Tavis Smiley pointed out that nader will offer a real liberal perspective that Democrats will have to address at some point.
After all, Nader isn't "stealing votes" so much as people are voting AGAINST the two parties.

[MGKrebs]

23. We need Instant Runoff Voting.

Print out one of the brochures here;

http://www.fairvote.org/library/brochure/index.htm#Brochure

Make copies.

Pass them out/leave them everywhere you can.

[snippy]

26. Nader is irrelevant.

This is not 2000 and Bush is an incumbent. Nearly every election involving an incumbent is a referendum on the incumbent. This election will be no different. It definitely will be a referendum on Bush. The three main issues will be the economy, Iraq, and Bush's incessant and compulsive lying. These issues likely will determine 10 to 15 million votes. Those 10 to 15 million votes will preclude another close election. Nader's vote totals will be much lower than in 2000 and insignificant. The people who will vote for Nader are people who would not vote for the candidate of either major party.

Since 9/11 Bush has been in a steady down trend with the occasional bump. Bush's decline in the polls is nothing other than the American people looking at and listening to Bush and realizing that he is an incompetent liar. Day by day and voter by voter, Bush himself is convincing the American people that he should not be president. If the trend since 9/11 continues, Bush will lose badly. If the trend reverses soon enough and strongly enough, Bush will win easily. Nader will not be a factor in any voters' perceptions of Bush.

The economy and Iraq must improve between now and November for Bush to win. Between now and November Bush will continue to lie at every opportunity about every subject on which he speaks. Between now and November, Bush will continue to demonstrate his incompetence. Between now and November Bush will continue to demonstrate his Fecal Midas Touch. Bush can benefit only from what happens to the economy and Iraq between now and November. Those issues, not Nader, may or may not change the trend for Bush and will decide the election. If there is no positive change on those issues, Bush will lose.

In 2004 Nader voters are not people who care about improving this country or the world. They care about trying to appear that they are more concerned than anyone else because of their enlightenment. Their vote is solely about self-gratification. They differ from Nader himself only in that Nader also is concerned with using his position to amass personal wealth.

FIRE THE LIAR

[rfkrocks]

27. What is Amazing

to me is that this election will be close. Given the really disastrous policies followed by Bush towards the middle classes on down how can this be close? Nader really shouldn't matter-if 46% of America favors the policies of the thief-in-chief we have such a struggle to put the country back together. We went to war for no reason-this poll is really frightening beyond Nader-although I hope Nader comes to the realization that everything he has ever believed in will be a distant monument if Bush gets 4 more years with total control over the other 2 branches of government-can you say Chief Justice Ashcroft?

[54anickel]

28. Funny, he doesn't LOOK electable or presidential -

Sorry, couldn't help myself :evilgrin: