Election 2010: Pennsylvania Senate Election Pennsylvania (Senate: Toomey 48%, Specter 36%)

[Jim Lane]

Source: Rasmussen Reports

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Pennsylvania voters shows 48% would vote for Toomey if the election were held today. Just 36% would vote for Specter while four percent (4%) prefer a third option, and 12% are not sure.

. . . .

Just 43% now have a favorable opinion of Specter while 54% offer an unfavorable assessment of the longtime GOP senator who became a Democrat rather than face Toomey in a party primary. Those numbers have reversed since June when 53% had a favorable opinion of him.

. . . .

If Congressman Joe Sestak is the Democratic nominee instead of Specter, Toomey still leads but by a smaller margin. The polling shows 43% for Toomey and 35% for Sestak. In June, Sestak had a six-point edge over Toomey.

Read more: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/pennsylvania/election_2010_pennsylvania_senate_election

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So Specter is tanking but what's alarming is that Toomey is rising. Even given Rasmussen's pro-Republican bias, this is quite a swing.

Yesterday, Rasmussen released that Specter's lead over Sestak for the nomination had shrunk from 19 points in June to 13 points now (from 51-32 to 47-34). That's further evidence of Specter's declining popularity, but it doesn't explain why the Toomey-Sestak matchup shows a swing of 14 points in Toomey's favor.

Another interesting point is that Specter supporters had touted him as better able to defeat Toomey. In June, Toomey trailed both Dems, but Specter's margin was bigger. Now, Sestak does better in the general election.

I hope this is just a blip. It would be appalling to see Toomey win that seat.

[DarthDem]

1. Typical Spasmussen Nonsense

Nothing to see here, except the Goopers must want Sestak. Heh. Be careful what you wish for, goons.

[Jim Lane]

3. Quinnipiac showed the same trend last month

See this LBN post: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3980802

Earlier this year, Quinnipiac had Specter beating Toomey by 20 points. In May, Specter's lead had been cut to 46-37. The July result was a virtual tie (Specter 45, Toomey 44). The latest Rasmussen result isn't out of line with the trend in the Quinnipiac polls.

This may be a case where Specter's name recognition is working against him.

[Drunken Irishman]

10. But we're talking about an election over a year away.

Polls this far out are fucking pointless.

[Yavin4]

15. Thank You

It's like idiots predicting who's going to win the Superbowl in August.

A year is ten lifetimes in politics.

[scot]

20. Yup.

[AlinPA]

8. I am supporting Sestak. No thanks to you for the "goon" compliment.

[DarthDem]

18. You Misunderstood

I'm supporting Sestak too. Fervently. I helped to vote him into office, and he was my Rep. until about three months ago when we moved out of PA.

I said "be careful what you wish for, goons," addressed clearly to the Republicans, because if they're wishing or hoping for Sestak (as the ScottyRazz poll may indicate - - you always have to look for the hidden agenda he builds into his fake numbers), they are going to be surprised. Negatively. For them. Not sure why that gets me a "no thanks." Anyway, go Adm. Joe.

[mike_c]

2. I have zero respect for Arlen Specter....

Yeah, it would be a shame to see the real republican win the seat, but I won't weep for Specter.

[Yupster]

4. Retire Arlen

You haven't been spending enough time with your family.

[stevietheman]

5. The 2010 election is several political lifetimes away. No worries, yet. n/t

n/t

[bluestateguy]

6. They actaully expect people to believe that?

Nice try Scott.

[HopeHoops]

7. WTF? Nobody knows who the fuck Toomey is!

What was it, a push poll?

"If you knew Arlen Specter planned to kill your grandma and stomp on kittens in red spiked high heel shoes, would you be more likely to vote for him or some dumbfuck named Toomey?"

[euphoria12leo]

9. Crossing Over

I have never heard of Toomey. Get a real Democrat not someone that believes in "Crossing Over." Crossing Over, well Specter
is too damn old. Specter is for Specter and that's all it is to it.

[RamboLiberal]

12. Toomey is well known and liked among the conservative Repukes

in this state. He gave Specter a scare last primary in 2004.

[caseymoz]

11. I wonder what Specter will do if he now loses the Democratic nomination?

Actually, I don't think Toomey is going to win or hold a lead after Specter begins to campaign. That's my guess.

[glinda]

13. They damn well better get health care reform now!

[BumRushDaShow]

14. PA has more registered Democrats than repukes

by 1.2 million. Whenever they do these polls, they ignore the 1/3rd of the electorate that live in the Philadelphia metro region and then wonder why the results come out differently than they predict. If there is a light turnout in Philadelphia, then anyone might win.

As I have noted before, the only reason why Specter has been in office today was because Philadelphia Democrats crossed-over and voted for him. If Sestak chooses to ignore Philadelphia, then it is at his own peril.

The one thing that I found interesting is that Sestak apparently held a Town Hall on healthcare here in Philadelphia last night but it barely registered a blip on the M$M, let alone here on the local media. I wonder why? Because there were no riots? :shrug: :eyes:

[michreject]

16. He flip-flopped to save his job

not because of what he believes in. Fuck him.

[Politics_Guy25]

17. MY GOD!

Mother of jesus, the senate may very well have a GOP majority in 2011. We are now behind in NV, IL, NY, ct, PA, california(Fiorna was leading Boxer in the latest poll I saw), colorado and Delaware. That's 8.

Not quite enough for control on 2nd thought but very very close. 52-48 senate. Nelson and Lieberman switching still wouldn't give the GOP control fortunately. It would make it 50-50, however.

We are TALKING about MASSIVE losses.

God knows what the house numbers look like....

President with approval ratings below 50% and an angry population......1994 all over again. Perhaps worse. A 38 seat house majority is nothing as 1994 showed.

Excuse me while I go throw up.

[Jim Lane]

19. Why do you say we're behind in New York?

I could dispute some of your other examples -- for example, in Nevada, where Reid has popularity problems but right now there's no first-tier Republican challenger. Let me concentrate on my own state, though.

Schumer is an absolute lock for re-election. Gillibrand probably won't face a tough primary now that Maloney has given up. Jonathan Tasini, who primaried Clinton in 2006, is trying again, and I think there's another little-known Dem in the field, but odds are that Gillibrand will get a walk in the primary and save all her money for the general. She already has about $7 million, she'll have the advantage of incumbency, New York is solidly blue, and the Republicans don't have a good challenger. (Clinton's Republican opponent in 2006 was the ex-Mayor of Yonkers, who not only had an adulterous affair while in office, but put his paramour on the municipal payroll in a cushy job. All this was known when he was nominated. The Republicans just couldn't find anybody better.)

I agree with your general point about avoiding complacency, but let's not go to the opposite extreme of needless alarmism. We are not behind in New York.

[RedCloud]

21. Repugs should go the way of the dinosaur. No more wasting national time on stupidity.

[spinbaby]

22. I'd like to see Specter go down in the primary

Or better yet, retire gracefully.

[Number9Dream]

23. Thoughts from Lehigh Valley resident

There's an old joke that Pennsylvania has Philadelphia on one side, Pittsburgh on the other, and Alabama in between. As a long time Lehigh Valley resident, I'll confirm that is essentially true. It wasn't long ago that we had Senators Santorum & Specter and Governor Ridge. Toomey was the Lehigh Valley's congressman. Despite the large Democratic registration edge, many PA Dems will vote repuke. The Lehigh Valley voted for Pres. Obama and at the same time elected repuke Rep. Charlie Dent who has opposed Obama at every turn. I don't get it either. Also, the Lehigh Valley media is solidly Republican.

I'm a Sestak supporter, and think that a year is plenty of time for him to become known across PA. Toomey did it in even less time in 2004. The Democratic candidates need to always refer to Toomey as "Wall Street banker, Pat Toomey", and equate him with the financial disaster / bailout. Also highlight Toomey's support of Bush. Toomey is very beatable with the right strategy. Ex: Proven leader Admiral Joe Sestak vs Wall Street banker Pat Toomey.

[Jim Lane]

24. Why do you think "Wall Street banker Pat Toomey" is leading in the polls?

For those of us supporting Sestak, it's encouraging that he already, after so little campaigning, does better against Toomey than Specter does.

Because you took the time to analyze Pennsylvania politics, though, I'd be interested in your thoughts as to why Toomey has gone up so much in the polls.

Others have pointed out that the election is more than a year away. I agree, so the polls now are subject to a lot of change, but they do give an indication of the electorate's current state of mind, which is a fact worth knowing.