STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday July 21

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday July 21, 2009



Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2

Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 4

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 20, 2009



Dow... 8,848.15 +104.21 (+1.18%)

Nasdaq... 1,909.29 +22.68 (+1.20%)

S&P 500... 951.13 +10.75 (+1.14%)

Gold future... 948.80 +11.30 (+1.21%)

10-Yr Bond... 3.60 -0.05 (-1.26%)

30-Year Bond 4.51 -0.03 (-0.57%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS

NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

Unlimited Debt
When the glass overflows, we all get wet
by Tony Allison

“We have involved ourselves in a colossal muddle, having blundered in the control of a delicate machine, the working of which we do not understand. The result is that our possibilities of wealth may run to waste for a time — perhaps for a long time.”

John Maynard Keynes
“The Great Slump of 1930” published December, 1930

The world today seems to be spinning faster on its axis than ever as humanity scrambles to stay afloat in a world drowning in debt. It all seemed like such a good idea back in the day, as the credit-based US economy seemed to create prosperity out of thin air for decades. The economic alchemists explained that the more we consume, the more the economy will prosper. And because of easy and abundant credit, we didn’t have to pay until later!

Unfortunately, later has arrived. Growth built on the sandy foundation of debt-based consumption (instead of saving and investment) was fun while it lasted. But now the economic party glass has been filled to overflowing with debt, and we are all getting wet. The great global debt party must now be wound down and cleaned up, but no one seems willing to face the inevitable hangover. The US has more than doubled its debt burden, relative to GDP, since the 1980’s and the consequences are beginning to crash the party.

.....

Central banks to the rescue?

The world’s central banks, being highly political organizations, don’t want the debt party to end. Ending the party, by allowing the global economy to de-leverage and restructure in a more free-market and sustainable manner, would likely cause a great deal of economic pain and political “instability”. The inevitable cleansing process is too unpredictable and the banking elites might not enjoy the new economic or political equilibrium.

Thus the debt extravaganza continues, this time at warp speed, as the US and other major nations incur unimaginable levels of new debt (on top of servicing old debt) in a desperate attempt to help the world “regain its footing”, or more bluntly, get the prosperity party back in gear, Keynesian-style.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Demeter]

12. The Problem Is: The Junkies Don't Want a Cure

The banksters want to continue to blow up the debt bubble, and Obama is persuaded that this is the right and good thing to do.

Nowhere is the ancient lesson remembered: neither a borrower nor a lender be (don't let your life depend on doing either). Thrift is quaint. Paying off debt is so bourgeois. We're a service economy, and one doesn't service people, one services DEBT!

It's going to take a mind change at the highest levels to stop the madness and permit the formation of a sustainable economy, one that doesn't count on continuous exponential growth to function.

Come on, Obama! Smarten up, or you'll get the lesson of your life!

[DemReadingDU]

23. Obama hits out at Wall Street banks

Obama hits out at Wall Street banks
Mon Jul 20, 2009 7:57pm EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama said on Monday that Wall Street banks had failed to show remorse for the "wild risks" that triggered a financial meltdown and helped to push the United States into recession.

Obama unveiled a sweeping regulatory overhaul in June aimed at improving government oversight of banks and markets to avert a repeat of the financial crisis.

"The problem that I've seen, at least, is you don't get a sense that folks on Wall Street feel any remorse for taking all these risks," Obama said in an interview with PBS television.

"You don't get a sense that there's been a change of culture and behavior as a consequence of what has happened. And that's why the financial regulatory reform proposals that we put forward are so important," he said.

Obama said the planned regulatory reforms would prevent Wall Street firms from taking the "wild risks" they had taken before the financial crisis. Shareholders should also have the right to weigh in on huge bonuses paid to executives, he said.

Wall Street paid more than $18 billion of bonuses in 2008, a year in which it needed trillions of dollars of taxpayer support.

Asked if he was concerned about the jump in profits reported by banks Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase & Co, Obama said his administration had less leverage over them now that they had repaid government bailout money.

He said the measures put in his place by his government to stabilize the economy were working, despite unemployment projected to rise above 10 percent within months.

"I think we've put out the fire. The analogy I use sometimes is, we had this beautiful house. And there was a fire. We came in and we had to hose it down.

"The fire is now out, but what we've discovered is, we need some new tuckpointing, the roof's leaking, the boiler's out, oh, and by the way, we're way behind on our mortgage," he said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE56J5K220090720



Maybe this is a beginning!

edit: forgot to add
:sarcasm:

[Tansy_Gold]

30. Get A Brain, Moran!

Why is it, Mr. Obama, do you think, that they show no remorse?

IT'S BECAUSE YOU REWARDED THEM FOR THE VERY THINGS THEY OUGHT TO BE REMORSEFUL ABOUT.

And you did it with someone else's money, JUST LIKE THEY DO.


Excuse me now, friends and neighbors, but I have to finish my $3/hour work so I have enough money to pay my utilities and put food on the table. I cannot afford a cash for clunker trade in for a new car. I cannot afford new furniture and new clothes. I cannot afford anything but to eke out a modest living BECAUSE NOTHING IS LEFT FOR ME AND MILLIONS LIKE ME AFTER OUR MUCH-HOPED-FOR PRESIDENT GAVE ALL OUR MONEY TO A FEW ALREADY VERY RICH PEOPLE.


Maybe, sir, SIR, if you took some of their ill-gotten (capital) gains away from them, they might feel some remorse.


Ha. Fat fucking chance.





Tansy Gold

[Demeter]

31. I Ain't Holding My Breath

If there is a change, it will come from Obama's continuing education, not from banksters' remorse.

[ozymandius]

35. I know how President Obama can assert some leverage.

Create and pass legislation that will make banking about a interesting as watching grass grow. Reintroduce Glass-Steagall. Assert the Sherman Act upon banks and other large financial institutions.

On more thing: Fire Geithner and Summers. Their absence will assert leverage over the largest financial institutions, provided they are replaced with people who are not compelled to lick Goldman Sachs' boots.

[Demeter]

38. From Your Lips to Obama's Ears

Maybe we should start a write-in campaign to the White House email: Fire the Goldman Sachs Crooks!

Simple, comprehensive, and it could be going viral already, based on my peek at the other places at DU.

[ozymandius]

41. I've seen this disgust and frustration over GS expressed elsewhere.

It's like a cult that we want to quit but just, somehow, cannot.

Even the level-headed types at Dailykos and econ blogs have expressed similar emotions ranging from dismay to outrage. Is the pool of talent so shallow and narrow that we must look to Goldman Sachs as the major resource of brilliance and work experience? Granted, that's a rhetorical question. But still - the question bears great weight on our national discourse concerning the way out of this financial quagmire.

[DemReadingDU]

39. If Obama is really serious what he said

He would indeed fire Geithner and Summers, and reinstate the Glass-Steagall act. Of course, Obama won't do any of those things.

[natrat]

50. a goldman exec was appointed as an advisor to obama yesterday :)

[Warpy]

65. As usual, the rank and file has gotten the point

long before it manages to reach the halls of power. People who still have jobs are paying down their debt and increasing their cushion of savings. At the bottom, people know that their jobs might be temporary but that debt will be there forever, screaming for resources they might no longer have.

Obama is going to have to spend like a drunken sailor to get us out of this, but that spending is going to have to coincide with some pain at the very top. He's going to have to siphon wealth off the top to get seed money to start rebuilding our industrial infrastructure. Without that, we are finished. No country can survive as a purely service economy and no country can survive running up debt to buy what it needs from other countries. It's a sucker's game and it has a finite time to play.

The banks have been shored up and that should be the end of bailouts at the top. Any crucial financial outfit that threatens to go under from now on should be nationalized until it is solvent.

Everything that made this country a world power has been looted. We're now just an empty shell.

[ozymandius]

2. no goobermental reports today n/t

[rfranklin]

5. Bernanke dog-and-pony show comes to Capitol Hill today

July 21, 2009
Bernanke preps for hot seat on bailouts, recovery
Jeannine Aversa

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke likely will face tough questions this week from lawmakers about taxpayer bailouts of financial companies, slow-moving government efforts to curb home foreclosures and the possibility that the Fed's unprecedented steps to stimulate the economy could spur inflation later on.

The Fed chief is scheduled to deliver a fresh report on the country's economic and financial health in back-to-back sessions on Capitol Hill starting Tuesday morning at 10 a.m. EDT with the House Financial Services Committee.

Skeptical lawmakers also are expected to voice concern about an Obama administration proposal that would expand the Fed's oversight duties over big, globally interconnected financial companies whose failure could imperil the national economy.

Bernanke on Tuesday likely will repeat the central bank's belief that the economy will start growing again sometime in the second half of this year helped by record low interest rates and President Barack Obama's $787 billion stimulus package of tax cuts and increased government spending....

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/news/ap/politics/2009/Jul/21/bernanke_preps_for_hot_seat_on_bailouts__recovery.html

[ozymandius]

8. Jeebus, that will be a Dog and Pony Show.

The first question that comes to mind ponders the extents to which the empaneled House members will really grill Bernanke on every issue. He deserves no less. If I were on the committee, I would be tempted to bring a couple of pitchforks with me, leaning against the wall behind my chair. I cannot imagine the metaphor would be lost on Bernanke.

[TheWatcher]

3. You know, I KNOW I shouldn't do this.

But My GOD, WHAT DOES IT TAKE TO BREAK THE DELUSIONAL HAZE?

This is THE POSTER CHILD, THE EXHIBIT A of "People Just DON'T GET IT"

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=6108801&mesg_id=6108801

THE CURRENT STOCK MARKET BUBBLE DOES NOT HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH THE HEALTH OF THE REAL ECONOMY.

I am SICK AND TIRED of seeing this shilled as some kind of Harbinger to the end of The Recession by Cheerleaders who are so invested in FEELING GOOD, that they not only are willing to sacrifice their OWN well being and treasure, but apparently EVERYONE ELSE'S.

At Long Last, WHY can people NOT WAKE UP?

Is it THAT important to be Ignorant, willful or otherwise?

Is it THAT important to cling to a false paradigm like an infant clings to it's favorite toy?

And WHAT will these mindless zombies tell us when this thing falls apart?

"Nobody Could Have Forseen....."

This is BEYOND the point of unacceptable.

This is just flat out DANGEROUS.

People are out there advising well-meaning people to throw what little they have left into the CRIMINALS POCKETS.

Shame On Them.

Shame. On. THEM.

I apologize for depositing this here, but I am just angry.

Not only do we have a Criminal Oligarchy Bankrupting EVERYTHING by design, we have SO MANY of our countrymen GOING ALONG WITH IT and saying it's GOOD.

This is MADNESS.

On Edit: Futures Update From -35 and Red THE WHOLE NIGHT to +2 RIGHT NOW, supposedly the setup for Helo Ben's Verbal Diarrhea about how The Recovery is Over and The Boom has begun on Capitol Hill.

I am not even going to pay attention to any of this today.

This isn't worth a Stroke.

[ozymandius]

6. Spurious claims are often rooted in just such shallow beliefs.

The larger picture of our economic state evidences more wishful thinking rather than substantive improvement. I read comments like this from today's oil price report:

"Traders have been cheered by stronger than expected second quarter company earnings, which suggest the U.S. economy is recovering from its worst recession in decades."

This comment evidences such naive charm as to be almost childish in it wishful thinking. Then look at the comments posted in the Market Observation. Debt: it's what's for breakfast, lunch and dinner. The Fed and Treasury are working really hard to keep the party going through debt expansion. It's Friedman write large: increase the money supply. That's all they have. Their ideas are bankrupt yet they're still banking on them.

I dunno what happens from here. Economic analysis with foresight and history as its guide would work toward a very different solution to the myriad economic problems we now face. Thing is: the people who created these messes schooled today's policy wonks who are in charge of fixing our crises. It must be frustrating to Bernanke and all the other Chicago School economists to consider the issue that years of education and professional practice have been build on a system of bad ideas.

[Ghost Dog]

7. Indeed: World stocks near 9-month high on earnings hopes

* On Tuesday July 21, 2009, 4:06 am EDT

LONDON (Reuters) - World stocks approached a 9-month high on Tuesday while emerging stocks hit a 2009 peak as investors anticipated upward surprises from earnings results due later given a run of strong reports over the past week.

...

Ahead of a twice-yearly testimony to Congress later in the day, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke reassured that loose monetary policy with near-zero interest rates would be around for a while longer in an article in the Wall Street Journal.

...

"The general sense as results season is upon us is that there will be fewer negative surprises than in 2008... it will be comfortable which is helping increase risk appetite," said Jeremy Batstone Carr, equity strategist at Charles Stanley.

MSCI world equity index (^MIWD00000PUS - News) rose 0.4 percent to levels, approaching the high set last month, which was a level last seen in October... Emerging stocks (^MSCIEF - News) hit their highest since late September -- levels last seen after Lehman Brothers went bankrupt.

According to Thomson Reuters data, the second-quarter earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 improved to -35.2 percent as of end last week from -35.7 percent, thanks largely to better-than-expected earnings from companies in the financial sector.

/... http://finance.yahoo.com/news/World-stocks-near-9month-high-rb-4078491591.html?x=0&.v=6

So, if you strip out said financial sector the numbers are... not good.

[ozymandius]

9. Intel did okay. Otherwise, as you suggest, the numbers truly suck.

Are we over 'hope' yet? When does 'substance' join the party?

[Dr.Phool]

19. A little side trip to the Asylum?

Ohio Chick's sig line says it all.

"Some days it's just not worth chewing through the restraints".

[Demeter]

20. Annie Wilson Schaef, PhD Started in Treating Alcohol Addiction

and found that in fact, the American culture is a Addict Culture, as demonstrated by the unwise excessive use of drugs, alcohol, tobacco, food, sex, work, religion, and so forth. People were not living lives of balance or grace, because they were locked into addictive behaviors, because that's what the culture rewarded, and that's what the culture offered as rewards.

Her first book: WHEN SOCIETY BECOMES AN ADDICT (San Francisco: Harper and Row, 1987) came during the Reagan Reign of Terror.

From the book's introduction: "Our society is deteriorating at an alarming rate. As we watch the news and read the newspapers, we are increasingly made aware of corruption in high places, financial collapse, and a lack of morality in settings ranging from preschools to meat packing plans. Our planet is being destroyed by acid rain and pollution. Hunger and wars rage over the planet.

"As a society, we are responding not with action but with a widespread malaise. The market for antidepressants has never been better. Apathy and depression have become synonymous with adjustment. Rather than looking for ways to change, to save ourselves, we are becoming more conservative, more complacent, more defensive of the status quo.

"Those few individuals who notice and draw attention to these growing problems are met with massive denial. When they run for public office, they are not elected. When they confront us with what they know, they are ignored, dismissed, or discredited."

She's gone on developing this theme in her writings and her workshops. Her insight is invaluable to understand what is going on. It's frightening that there are no good and obvious solutions. But at least it helps to know we aren't delusional, that there are others who see the same problems and say their names, and are working for a solution.

The problem is, will the solution come before we are all dead?

http://www.livinginprocess.com/schaef/

http://www.balancedweightmanagement.com/WhenSocietyBecomesAnAddict!.htm

[DemReadingDU]

25. I'm addicted to the Internets

:)

[Demeter]

34. Me too.

But compared to most addictions, I think it makes me a better person. I guess it depends what you use it for. Like any tool or technology, the evil is in the misuse, not in the existence.

[DemReadingDU]

37. It's like a personal library

I have learned so much by having a computer, Google has become my best friend!

[Dr.Phool]

67. The internet is fattening.

When I got my first computer, I put on 20 pounds. Instead of normal activities, and going to the gym, I was sitting there surfing the web.

Lately, I've been forcing my ass out of SMW and spending a couple of hours working out instead.

[Hugin]

52. Interesting.

Thanks for this nugget, Demeter.

It kind of made me feel more sane. :)

[Demeter]

55. You, Sane, Hugin? Never!

[Po_d Mainiac]

29. It ain't like they've never been warned n/t

[ozymandius]

4. Oil hovers near $64 as earnings, demand weighed

SINGAPORE – Oil prices hovered near $64 a barrel Tuesday in Asia as investors weighed improving corporate results against weak crude demand.

Benchmark crude for August delivery was up 5 cents to $64.03 a barrel by late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Monday, the contract rose 42 cents to settle at $63.98.

....

Some positive economic data is also fueling optimism. The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators improved more than expected in June. It was the third straight month of gains.

"The corporate reports have reinforced the sentiment that the worst is over," said Ben Westmore, an energy analyst with National Australia Bank in Melbourne. "But there haven't been any tangible signs that consumption has turned around."

....

Traders have been disappointed by evidence that gasoline consumption hasn't jumped during the summer driving season.

....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for August delivery fell 1.14 cents to $1.78 a gallon and heating oil dropped 1.06 cents to $1.68. Natural gas for August delivery slid 5.4 cents to $3.64 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

10. US financial market bailout tab hits $4.7 trillion

WASHINGTON – The federal government has devoted $4.7 trillion to help the financial sector through its crisis, a level of assistance equal to about one-third of the overall U.S. economy, a watchdog report said Monday.

Under the worst of circumstances, the report said, the government's maximum exposure could total nearly $24 trillion, or $80,000 for every American.

The figures are part of a tough new quarterly report to Congress from special inspector general Neil Barofsky, who accuses the Treasury Department of repeatedly failing to adopt recommendations aimed at making one component of the government financial rescue effort more accountable and transparent.

The $4.7 trillion commitment to the industry takes into account about 50 initiatives and programs set up since 2007 by the Bush and Obama administrations as well as by the Federal Reserve. Barofsky oversees one of the initiatives — the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090720/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/us_meltdown_oversight

[ozymandius]

13. Ritholtz disagrees with the $23 Trillion figure.

Here's why:

Key factors to getting to 23 trillion:

• It includes estimates of the maximum cost of programs that have already been canceled or that never got under way.

• It assumes that every home mortgage backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac goes into default, and all the homes turn out to be worthless.

• It assumes that every bank in America fails, with not a single asset worth even a penny.

• And it assumes that all of the assets held by money market mutual funds, including Treasury bills, turn out to be worthless.

• It would also require the Treasury itself to default on securities purchased by the Federal Reserve system.

• Every dollar invested by the government in banks would have to become worthless

• The banks would have to default on securities guaranteed by the F.D.I.C.

• All the collateral posted by the banks to get loans from the Fed would also have to become worthless.

Bottom line: In reality, we are unlikely to get anywhere near that number . . .

More here...

[UpInArms]

18. thanks for that counterpost, Ozy!

I was having a difficult time with the $23 trillion number myself.

:hi:

[ozymandius]

26. Too big to contemplate.

Numbers of that size have no meaning to me in personally relative terms. I might as well contemplate the meaning of my existence in the grander context of the universe's lifespan.

I know that we can quantify it in such a way that we can calculate GDP. But in real, personal terms: nope. I'll bet Bill Gates does not even go there in calculating the potential increase of his money supply.

[DemReadingDU]

54. CNBC: Neil Barofsky, special inspector general for the TARP program

7/21/09 8:32AM
Neil Barofsky, special inspector general for the TARP program, will give Congress his quarterly status report on the usage of TARP funds Tuesday afternoon, but he gives CNBC a preview first. appx 9 minutes
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1189919145&play=1


7/21/09 Full Report, 262 pages
Check out page 138 for Table 3.4
http://www.sigtarp.gov/reports/congress/2009/July2009_Quarterly_Report_to_Congress.pdf

[DemReadingDU]

32. In reality, we are unlikely to get anywhere near that number . . .

right, it will be much higher!


5/29/09 Leap in U.S. debt hits taxpayers with 12% more red ink

Taxpayers are on the hook for an extra $55,000 a household to cover rising federal commitments made just in the past year for retirement benefits, the national debt and other government promises, a USA TODAY analysis shows.

The 12% rise in red ink in 2008 stems from an explosion of federal borrowing during the recession, plus an aging population driving up the costs of Medicare and Social Security.

That's the biggest leap in the long-term burden on taxpayers since a Medicare prescription drug benefit was added in 2003.

The latest increase raises federal obligations to a record $546,668 per household in 2008, according to the USA TODAY analysis. That's quadruple what the average U.S. household owes for all mortgages, car loans, credit cards and other debt combined.

"We have a huge implicit mortgage on every household in America — except, unlike a real mortgage, it's not backed up by a house," says David Walker, former U.S. comptroller general, the government's top auditor.


USA TODAY used federal data to compute all government liabilities, from Treasury bonds to Medicare to military pensions.


Bottom line: The government took on $6.8 trillion in new obligations in 2008, pushing the total owed to a record $63.8 trillion.

The numbers measure what's needed today — set aside in a lump sum, earning interest — to pay benefits that won't be covered by future taxes.

Congress can reduce or increase the burden by changing laws that determine taxes and benefits for programs such as Medicare and Social Security.

Rep. Jim Cooper, D-Tenn., says exploding debt has focused attention on the government's financial challenges. "More and more, people are worried about our fiscal future," he says.

Key federal obligations:

• Social Security. It will grow by 1 million to 2 million beneficiaries a year from 2008 through 2032, up from 500,000 a year in the 1990s, its actuaries say. Average benefit: $12,089 in 2008.

• Medicare. More than 1 million a year will enroll starting in 2011 when the first Baby Boomer turns 65. Average 2008 benefit: $11,018.

•Retirement programs. Congress has not set aside money to pay military and civil servant pensions or health care for retirees. These unfunded obligations have increased an average of $300 billion a year since 2003 and now stand at $5.3 trillion.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2009-05-28-debt_N.htm


edit: check out the interactive graph at beginning of the article

[Demeter]

40. Well, That's A Relief! So It's Only What? $11.5 Trillion?

[ozymandius]

49. I'm sure that much can be found between the banking & defense lobbyists' couch cushions.

[Demeter]

24. I Refuse to Pay or Worry About It

I exert my GS privilege.

[ozymandius]

11. Bernanke: Fed able to foil inflation when time comes

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the huge amounts of money the U.S. central bank has pumped into the economy will not undercut its ability to push borrowing costs higher when the time is ripe.

Stressing that the weak U.S. economy will likely warrant exceptionally easy policies for a long time to come, Bernanke outlined in a newspaper opinion piece how the Fed could raise interest rates even with cash flooding the financial system.

....

Bernanke said the U.S. central bank also has other ways to raise short-term interest rates and limit the broad growth of money in the financial system.

For instance, it can arrange so-called reverse repurchase agreements with financial firms. The Fed would sell securities from its portfolio, taking cash out of the system, with an agreement to buy them back at a higher price at a later date.

The Fed could also offer "term deposits" similar to certificates of deposit to banks. Bank funds held at the Fed in such instruments would not be available for lending.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090721/bs_nm/us_bernanke_fed

---

In bold type: That would be a guaranteed return on investment, no doubt limited to exclusive bank holding companies, as evidenced by past practices with similar initiatives. I'll wager that such bank holding companies names start with Goldman and end with Sachs.

[UpInArms]

15. Chopper Ben must have

suckled at Bubbles Greenscum's piggly trough for a bit too long.

What shit falls from such a hole of a misbeguided brainless suitwearing turd!

[Demeter]

16. Hey, Ozy! It's Only Tuesday. I Don't Know How Much More Insanity I Can Take

I have signed up for 21 days, three solid weeks, of getting up at midnight and throwing papers for guys I know who want a break from the daily grind. This should net me double the month's average income. The opportunity only comes once in a while, and it's not snowing or freezing, either.

Why do I feel so stupid, doing this? Is it because it won't do any good?

Is it because the government is on the road to hell, and its intentions aren't even good? Is it because supposedly highly educated people are acting like magic-believing children? Is it because the rest of the world is not checking the foolishness here at home?

When Dumbya was in office, I contemplated fleeing to Canada on a weekly basis. Now, I contemplate France, for fear that otherwise my family will drown in a tsunami that could be prevented.

Other than working to divert, convert, or subvert the system, and keeping heads down and noses clean, and continuing the building of an alternate economy and alternative power structure from the grassroots, which started when Reagan was rolled into office like the tank of an occupying army, what can we do?

[ozymandius]

22. I try to think of one issue at a time. UPDATED

From a teacher's point-of-view: whenever there is a disturbance in the classroom involving several individuals, there is often one person whose absence will dissolve the situation once he is removed. I try to think about our squirrel's nest of problems similarly.

Look at the progress made so far in the healthcare debates. We pump nearly a trillion dollars annually into this system that gives such little value in return. It now seems clear to some who have feared the word 'socialism' their entire lives that a Medicare-style system would be of great value. The fact that we have gotten this far to overcome a for-profit healthcare ponzi scheme, entrenched with lobbying money is a great victory. To me, we are witness to the construction of a new "Third Rail" of American politics.

Consider the next one: DoD. Two failed wars - eight years in Afghanistan and six year in Iraq have cost us nearly a trillion dollars. How can one justify these adventures with such massive expenditures of capital given the net sum results of each? If one were to scale back the Pentagon spending in accordance with the relevance of standing armies in today's world (i.e. colonialism is dead) then that will offer a great boost to save our fiscal hide. That expense, like that troublesome child, is the nexus of so much of our horrid national issues.

We have almost fifty years of economic misguidance to correct. Failure to be on the right track in correcting these generational mistakes within the next 77 months will have me thinking about France too.

Edit to add: When I say "some" - I mean someone like this guy who rationally examines how he suffered under the Bush administration when tax breaks were the trojan horse through which free market victimization asserted itself.

[Demeter]

28. We've Had GOP Nearly Entirely Removed

and yet the situation economically is not improving. We'd have to remove Gold-Borg to get any grip on the economy--or let them self-destruct, just as the GOP has. But the collateral damage! How can it be borne? Why must it be borne?

[ozymandius]

36. Your last is a forensics question above my pay grade.

To resolve the collateral damage/expense requires extensive financial restructuring that I eludes me. It just seems evident that the CDO and CDS issues need to be resolved through technical means.

Or maybe, this requires delicate technical means and fists thrown. My inner Bolshevik wants to come out on this issue. :evilgrin:

[Tansy_Gold]

51. Well, Ozy, it could also be that we're afraid unnecessarily.

Maybe the collapse of the system wouldn't be nearly as bad as we think it might.

Right now, our communities are still relatively intact. We still have infrastructure, we still have an economy. **IF** the CDOs and CDSes and all the other toxic alphabet soup came crashing down, might it not have little to no effect on our daily lives?

And might that not be the real fear that the oligarchs hang over our heads?

If the markets are divorced from the economy, then their crash really won't effect us at all.


Bring it on?



TG, who has literally been staring at an onrushing thunderstorm for two hours and still has work to do.

[DemReadingDU]

58. I don't think so

When the huge financial bubble pops, everyone will be trying to cash out. Many will be left holding empty bags, not only people, but towns, cities, states, schools too. There will be no more leveraging up, no more credit. Everyone will want cash because it is something, or barter. And unemployment will skyrocket.

:(

[Tansy_Gold]

60. But that's just it, Ozy. it *is* a bubble. It's not real.

Look, if I were writing a novel about this, a post-Atlas novel, I'd make sure my main characters saw this coming and prepared themselves for it. I'm not saying anyone is actually doing this right now, but it would make sense.

You position your own people in positions to take advantage of the collapse. You'd better have people in place to take control of the infrastructure: the electric grid, the power plants, the distribution network, the water system. Forget the billing and the records and who owes or doesn't owe. the point is to keep the power on and the water flowing.

You'll have some violent anarchy. Those with the maximum fear and panic will also have the most guns and ammunition. The ammo will be expended quickly and do considerable damage in the process, but once it's gone, it will be gone. yes, there will be some left, but I woudl venture to say 80% or more will be used up within a week.

After the initial chaos, things will start to settle down. They will be different but they will settle down. I think there will be local skirmishes, but there will not be wholesale civil war because there will be no stable governments to wage it. What government institutions are left -- more state and local, less fed -- will be focused on stabilizing their situation, NOT further de-stabilizing it.

The fed military, inc. natl. guard units, has been substantially weakened by the ongoing wars, in terms of manpower /sic/ and materiel. Much of what used to be military is now mercenary contractors, so the military is smaller and less effective than it used to be. It's not gonna be used for civilian execution.

it's gonna be like the 30s, only worse, but not like the 1860s. At least not if it happens when conditions are reasonably stable like they are now. If you get a destablized populace, then it could be different. But I do believe TPTB are using scare tactics. I don't think we need to be nearly as afraid of a collapse of the financial grid as we do of a collapse of the electric grid.

Tansy Gold, who would much rather be writing a novel than what she is doing right now.

[DemReadingDU]

64. Spouse isn't worried about anything

He really doesn't think there will be a collapse. But, but if there is, he says there is nothing to do to get ready for it.

But I'm not so confident. I do think we can do some preparations. So I have extra canned foods, household supplies, batteries, flashlights, a generator, and a bit of cash. Just in case. Because we have had storms when the electric does go out. When there is no electric, there are no lights, the banks can't open, and computer doesn't operate. A few days without electric is not too bad, but I do worry if the electrical grid totally collapses.

[hamerfan]

69. Stephen King covered this already

"The Stand".

[Demeter]

72. You Make Revolution Sound So Feasible and Sensible

and it is a novel you are writing, there. But that's not a bad thing. More than once Life has Imitated Art.

[ozymandius]

62. My two cents

Question is: how many layers exist between the average person and the events on Wall Street? Unfortunately - there are not that many layers of insulation.

Everything financial travels through Wall Street today. A bank loan is either sold wholesale or collateralized and sold in pieces every day. The stock markets determine the future existence of everyone who invests in them. The 401(k) has replaced the pension as the preferred vehicle to provide monetary security in our later years. Neveretheless, the security that one thought was in place when money was flying in the '90s is just shit outta luck when trying to exist on the stock valuations given the massive declines in value we've seen over the past ten years.

If a retirement fund relies on the performance of the stock markets then one is married to Wall Street stocks.

The only way you can divorce yourself from what happens on Wall Street is to divorce your money from the semi-functional irrationality of the markets and hope the people you do business with practice the same.

[Demeter]

71. Seeing as Keeping the System Going Is Killing Us...

how much worse could tearing it down be?

[Tansy_Gold]

76. Exactly.

The system itself is killing us all on its own, and in doing so it's killing itself. So why are we trying to save it? It's an exercise not only in futility but in self-destruction.


Tansy Gold, who is having a bad day even though it did rain a little bit this morning.

[UpInArms]

14. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 78.985 Change +0.153 (+0.20%)

US Dollar Falls on Stock Gains as CIT Avoids Bankruptcy, Commodities Rise

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special_report/special_reports/US_Dollar_Falls_on_Stock1248171331141.html

The US Dollar tumbled as Asian stock exchanges surged 2.4% to on news that US lender CIT will avoid bankruptcy while commodities advanced, boosting financial and resources-linked issues and trimming demand for the safe-haven currency. German Producer Prices are on tap in European hours, with expectations calling for the biggest decline in 22 years.

Key Overnight Developments

• UK House Prices See Smallest Decline in a Year, Says Rightmove
• Australian Producer Prices Fall More Than Expected on Stronger Currency
• US Dollar Falls on Stock Gains as CIT Avoids Bankruptcy, Commodities Rise


Critical Levels



The Euro pushed sharply higher in overnight trading, adding 0.6% against the US Dollar. The British Pound mirrored its continental counterpart, testing above the 1.64 level. The greenback tumbled as Asian stock exchanges surged 2.4% to on news that US lender CIT will avoid bankruptcy while commodities advanced, boosting financial and resources-linked issues and trimming demand for the safe-haven currency.

...more...

Pound Weighed, Dollar Finds Support As Bernanke Talks Tightening

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Euro__Pound_Range1248170371454.html

The sterling has remained under pressure during overnight trading despite European equity markets higher for a seventh day. We are seeing profit taking ahead of testimony from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke which could be potentially market moving today with a virtually empty economic calendar. The U.K. public finance report which showed the budget deficit rising to 13.0 billion which is its highest level since records began in 1993 added to the prevailing bearish sentiment sending the GBP/USD to test 1.6400.

Bullish comments from Bank of England Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Charlie Bean failed to reverse sentiment. The MPC member stated that the central bank is aiming to keep its benchmark interest rate at its record low level for as short a period as possible. He would go on to further state that he sees that the U.K. economy has bottomed. However, businesses continue to remain cautious which could limit the pace of a recovery. We may see support at the 20-Day SMA at 1.6363 or yesterday’s low of 1.6266 which could present buying opportunities.

The Euro has traded sideways stuck in the range of 1.4190-1.4250 as dollar support and lingering risk appetite offset each other. An empty economic calendar has also contributed to the lack of volatility which we could see pick up as we proceed through the week with the PMI and German IFO readings on tap. The Swiss trade balance report did cross the wires showing the country’s surplus narrowing to 1.57B from 2.0B as exports declined 2.6%. European demand has continued to remain weak and is limiting growth for all of Europe. Therefore, the ECB may be forced to remain on hold despite the recent rhetoric from central banks on how to exit their current quantitative easing policies. The central bank was the last to join the party and may need to wait until early 2010 to determine the impact of their efforts before considering tightening.

The dollar has found support overnight as markets are anticipating that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will outline the central bank’s plan to tighten policy in order to prevent future inflation risks when the economy returns to growth. In a Wall St Journal piece today he talked about the need to tighten policy which triggered the volatility but was clear that an accommodative policy was the course for the foreseeable future. Therefore, we could see markets disappointed in his comments leading to dollar weakness. The economic calendar will present some event risk on the form of Chicago Fed national activity index which is expected to decline to -2.3 from -1.3. The slow down in activity could weigh on the outlook for growth especially if we see weak earnings from clue chip names like Caterpillar and Dupont. Indeed, reflecting back to last quarter it was the cyclical names that tempered the enthusiasm that was generated by rebounding financials and we could see the same today. Event risk on the morning session could come from the BoC rate decision, where the central bank is expected to keep rates on hold at 0.25% but could speak about their plans for quantitative easing.

...more...

[UpInArms]

17. U.S. productivity boom a bust for workers

http://www.reuters.com/article/smallBusinessNews/idUSTRE56J3KW20090720?sp=true

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. businesses are cutting workers' hours and jobs at a pace that far outstrips the rate of the economy's contraction, generating a productivity boom that in ordinary times would be a welcome sign of healthy growth.

It is a bit of mystery why companies are downsizing so drastically, but the consequences are clear. For Corporate America, it means a strong -- although possibly fleeting -- rebound in profits. For employees, it means a dismal job market is getting worse and may not recover any time soon.

"I don't think anyone fully understands this phenomenon," Lawrence Summers, the head of President Barack Obama's National Economic Council, said in a speech on Friday.

"One potential explanation is greater financial pressure on firms in this recession has led them to do anything they can to shed cash flow commitments by laying off workers at a more rapid pace or leaving jobs vacant when people leave," he said.

Other theories posit that companies bracing for an even longer economic downturn, or perhaps the economy was even weaker than official government data showed.

Regardless of the reason, high unemployment is a political nightmare for Obama and his economic team.

Summers said the jobless rate in this recession is running about 1 to 1.5 percentage points above what would normally be attributable to a slump of this magnitude.

The unemployment rate hit a 26-year high of 9.5 percent in June, far higher than the Obama administration envisioned when it pushed for a nearly $800 billion stimulus package early this year. Critics on both sides of the political aisle have pointed to the persistently weak job market as evidence that either the stimulus was poorly designed or simply too small.

WIDENING GAP

Productivity typically declines during recessions. Hiring workers is expensive, so companies tend to hoard labor and wait out the slump, which means costs stay high while output falls.

The fact that companies are managing to produce more with less labor is good news for profits and helps explain why many companies have reported better-than-expected second-quarter results in recent days.

...more...

methinks there's some books being cooked

[Demeter]

42. Larry Summers Doesn't Understand It

Well, Larry, when people lose their source of income (a job), they lose the ability to shop. This means that businesses have no customers. So they lay off their employees, who now have no income, who therefore cease to buy things, causing business to lay off their workers...etc.

It's called a Death Spiral. Perhaps you've heard of it, back in Econ 101?

Obama, fire this incompetent man! Then he'll be a pariah, unemployable in both Academia and Govt. And Goldman, if it's smart, won't take him back either, because he will have failed his test of Banksterhood.

[bread_and_roses]

56. oh, my good goddess, he really said that? even i gape in disbelief

I put no lies, no spin, no equivocation, no manipulation beyond these Banksters, but to say "no one really understands this?"

I am staggered. But you are too generous Demeter - he cannot be that incompentant. He is a stooge for his Masters, and that ain't us.

[Demeter]

57. A Man Who Claims Women Can't Do Math and Science IS That Incompetent

and stupid, too, when he says it at Harvard! Or anywhere else, for that matter.

[bread_and_roses]

75. ah - good point

so he's servile, corrupt, AND stupid, you're right.

[UpInArms]

21. Did deregulation and free markets cause the recession?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Did-deregulation-and-free-hmoney-2076530822.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=

After three decades of dominating the political conversation, free-market thinking is out of style. The new conventional wisdom: It's time to go back to the pre-Reagan era of strong government and secure jobs.

But Brink Lindsey of the libertarian Cato Institute (a think tank that provided a lot of the intellectual ammunition for deregulation) wants you to know that the good old days weren't as good as you might think.

He's not just talking dollars-and-cents economics. Lindsey says it's no coincidence that markets blossomed alongside social freedoms we now take for granted. Contributing writer David Futrelle talked to Lindsey about all that - and about whether his side is really to blame for the mess we're in now.

The financial crisis has been widely blamed on government putting too much faith in the market. Is it a tough time to be a free-market advocate?

We're definitely on our heels at the moment. But the idea that this crisis shows that government is smarter than markets is wrong. Clearly there were private-sector failures. But to the extent that public policy was weighing in, it was weighing in as hard as it could in favor of ever-broader home ownership.

...more...

Someone should take that idiot's kool-aid away - :ispitinhisdirection:

[Demeter]

43. The Social Freedoms Had Nothing to Do With the Market

What a specious line of bullshit!

[ozymandius]

47. Cato? HA HA HA HA! There was, once upon a time, some intelligence there.

They were a somewhat rational counterweight to the excesses of the Bush administration. Now they are just a laughing stock as they have sought some contrary position on every issue that the Obama administration has addressed.

Case in point:

The Cato Institute's Daffy Health Care Ideas

.....

Unlike some of the other conservative think tanks, which depend on the Good Actuarial Fairy to take care of high-risk insurance customers, Cato does have a plan for taking care of your medical needs as you get older and frailer. Cato says you should buy insurance insurance.

No, I'm serious. They call it "health status insurance," but it's essentially an additional insurance policy to insure you against the increased costs of being dumped into a high-risk pool. This plan was proposed in February 2009 by Cato adjunct scholar John H. Cochrane, a professor of finance at the University of Chicago School of Business.

The "health status" plan, as most conservative plans do, calls for eliminating employee-based insurance and also removing constraints on insurance agencies that limit their ability to jack up premiums for people who get sick. Then your second insurance policy will pick up the slack when you do get sick. Cochrane writes...

Medical insurance covers your medical expenses in the current year, minus deductibles and copayments. Health-status insurance covers the risk that your medical insurance premiums will rise. If you get a long-term condition that moves you into a more expensive medical insurance premium category, health-status insurance pays you a lump sum large enough to cover your higher medical insurance premiums, with no change in out-of-pocket expenses.

Of course, keeping the cost of insurance insurance premiums reasonably low depends on people purchasing insurance insurance policies while they are still young and healthy. But Cato, of course, doesn't want to make insurance insurance mandatory, but simply leave it to the good sense of young people struggling with too many other expenses to purchase insurance insurance policies on top of health insurance policies. Sure.

more...

[ozymandius]

48. This slipped by me at first reading:

This plan was proposed in February 2009 by Cato adjunct scholar John H. Cochrane, a professor of finance at the University of Chicago School of Business.

Figures.

Retire, you old fool!

[Dr.Phool]

53. They write some very funny stuff.

I guess I'm still on their distribution list. They must think I'm someone important. Every now and then I get a package of policy statements from them. Some of the funniest, wackiest shit you'll ever read.

I glance over it. I either :rofl: :spray: :rofl: , or:puke: :puke: :puke:


Then just toss it into the file cabinet and forget about it.

[UpInArms]

27. Subprime Brokers Resurface as Dubious Loan Fixers

http://finance.yahoo.com/loans/article/107362/subprime-brokers-resurface-as-dubious-loan-fixers.html?mod=loans-home

From the ninth floor of a downtown office building on Wilshire Boulevard, Jack Soussana delivered staggering numbers of mortgages to homeowners during the real estate boom, amassing a fortune.

By Mr. Soussana's own account, his customers fared less happily. He specialized in the exotic mortgages that have proved most prone to sliding into foreclosure, leaving many now scrambling to save their homes.

Yet the dangers assailing Mr. Soussana's clients have yielded fresh business for him: Late last year, he and his team -- ensconced in the same office where they used to broker mortgages -- began working for a loan modification company. For fees reaching $3,495, with most of the money collected upfront, they promised to negotiate with lenders to lower payments on the now-delinquent mortgages they and their counterparts had sprinkled liberally across Southern California.

"We just changed the script and changed the product we were selling," said Mr. Soussana, who ran the Los Angeles sales office of Federal Loan Modification Law Center. The new script: You got a raw deal, and "Now, we're able to help you out because we understand your lender."

Mr. Soussana's partners at FedMod, as the company is known, were also products of the formerly lucrative world of high-risk lending. The managing partner, Nabile Anz, known as Bill, previously co-owned Mortgage Link, a California subprime lender, now defunct, that once sold $30 million worth of loans a month.

Jeffrey Broughton, one of FedMod's initial partners, served as director of business development at Pacific First Mortgage, a lender that extended so-called Alt-A mortgages for borrowers with tarnished credit for Countrywide Financial, which lost billions of dollars on bad mortgages before being rescued in an acquisition.

FedMod is but one example of how many of the same people who dispensed risky mortgages during the real estate bubble have reconstituted themselves into a new industry focused on selling loan modifications.

Despite making promises of relief to homeowners desperate to keep their homes, FedMod and other profit making loan modification firms often fail to deliver, according to a New York Times investigation based on interviews with scores of former employees and customers, more than 650 complaints filed with the Better Business Bureau, and documents filed by the Federal Trade Commission in a lawsuit against the company.

The suit, filed in California federal court, asserts that FedMod frequently exaggerated its rates of success, advised clients to stop making their mortgage payments, did little or nothing to modify loans and failed to promptly refund fees. The suit seeks an end to FedMod's practices, and compensation for customers.

...more...

since there are no obvious penalties for cheating, stealing and lying - these creeps are free to fleece the sheep again

:grr:

[UpInArms]

33. Here's a Switch: Americans Who Don't Spend

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/107363/heres-a-switch-americans-who-dont-spend.html?mod=banking-budgeting

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Grace Case hasn't used a credit card in more than two years. She's given up her cell phone, buying new clothes and toys on a whim, getting her hair colored every month, making big-ticket purchases until they're absolutely needed and going to concerts -- her and her husband's favorite form of entertainment.

She shops garage sales, uses coupons and never finds her fridge full of leftovers because she stretches every meal she makes.

Her 3-year-old daughter Emily plays with toys that were bought for 10-year-old Adam when he was a toddler. She grows many of her own vegetables, buys meat in bulk and carpools to work.

"I'm just managing my budget within the parameters of what I have," she said.

Her frugality was forced upon her when the Fulton, N.Y., accountant lost a $60,000 a year salary in 2006 and faced the frightening truth that she was unemployed with $41,000 of credit-card debt, two car payments and a mortgage that her husband's machinist salary alone couldn't cover.

...more...

[Demeter]

44. And She's a Better Person For It

The sadder but wiser girl.

[Festivito]

45. Debt: 07/17/2009 11,600,488,226,683.25 (UP 2,070,283,515.10) (Small rise.)

(Most of the rise belongs to the FICA side for today and even that is not much.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,254,812,680,474.55 + 4,345,675,546,208.70
UP 62,427,388.38 + UP 2,007,856,126.72

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.78, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 306,890,342 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 05/25/2009 01:14 -> 306,504,012
Currently, each of these Americans owe $37,800.11.
A family of three owes $113,400.33. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 8,596,434,722.14.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,590,599,953.64.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 123 reports in 178 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging -0.07B$ per report, 0.05B$/day so far.
There were 198 reports in 290 days of FY2009 averaging 7.96B$ per report, 5.43B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,283 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.4 and 20.1T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/17/2009 11,600,488,226,683.25 BHO (UP 973,611,177,770.17 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,575,763,329,770.80 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/29/2009 +000,126,971,012.08 ------------******** Mon
06/30/2009 +084,349,097,965.60 ------------**********
07/01/2009 -009,218,801,329.89 --
07/02/2009 -025,885,550,566.82 -
07/03/2009 -000,017,140,719.16 ----
07/06/2009 +029,989,200,037.82 ------------********** Mon
07/07/2009 +000,215,166,015.48 ------------********
07/08/2009 +000,621,025,720.38 ------------********
07/09/2009 +010,396,425,012.59 ------------**********
07/10/2009 -000,364,273,300.28 ---
07/13/2009 -000,000,617,291.42 ------ Mon
07/14/2009 +000,244,233,965.61 ------------********
07/15/2009 +057,721,794,648.52 ------------**********
07/16/2009 +016,136,405,834.08 ------------**********
07/17/2009 +000,062,427,388.38 ------------*******

164,376,364,392.97 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,935,856,423,424.18 in last 302 days.
That's 1,936B$ in 302 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 190% of that highest year ever only in 302 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 302 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3976881&mesg_id=3976916

[Festivito]

70. Debt: 07/20/2009 11,601,270,694,948.64 (UP 782,468,265.39) (Small small rise.)

(Both make a small rise for today.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,254,984,489,704.24 + 4,346,286,205,244.40
UP 171,809,229.69 + UP 610,659,035.70

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.77, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 306,911,942 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 05/25/2009 01:14 -> 306,504,012
Currently, each of these Americans owe $37,800..
A family of three owes $113,399.99. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 9,252,685,860.39.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,785,302,964.29.
The average for the last 31 days would be 6,566,422,223.50.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 124 reports in 181 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging -0.11B$ per report, 0.00B$/day so far.
There were 199 reports in 293 days of FY2009 averaging 7.92B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,280 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.4 and 20.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
07/20/2009 11,601,270,694,948.64 BHO (UP 974,393,646,035.56 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,576,545,798,036.20 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/30/2009 +084,349,097,965.60 ------------**********
07/01/2009 -009,218,801,329.89 --
07/02/2009 -025,885,550,566.82 -
07/03/2009 -000,017,140,719.16 ----
07/06/2009 +029,989,200,037.82 ------------********** Mon
07/07/2009 +000,215,166,015.48 ------------********
07/08/2009 +000,621,025,720.38 ------------********
07/09/2009 +010,396,425,012.59 ------------**********
07/10/2009 -000,364,273,300.28 ---
07/13/2009 -000,000,617,291.42 ------ Mon
07/14/2009 +000,244,233,965.61 ------------********
07/15/2009 +057,721,794,648.52 ------------**********
07/16/2009 +016,136,405,834.08 ------------**********
07/17/2009 +000,062,427,388.38 ------------*******
07/20/2009 +000,171,809,229.69 ------------******** Mon

164,421,202,610.58 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,936,638,891,689.57 in last 305 days.
That's 1,937B$ in 305 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 190% of that highest year ever only in 305 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 305 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3978801&mesg_id=3978914

[florida08]

46. rose colored glasses?

"The fire is now out"

Fat lady has laryngitis

Financial Times
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cb88adba-7570-11de-9ed5-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss

The fiscal problems of US states will continue even though lawmakers have received federal stimulus funds and made sweeping cuts to close shortfalls in their budgets for recent years, according to a report by a leading bipartisan research group.

http://www.ncsl.org/?tabid=18038

State Budget Update: July 2009
2009 will mark one of the most difficult years in history for state budgets. The fiscal challenges are enormous, widespread and, unfortunately, far from over.

Lawmakers in virtually every state scrambled to keep their fiscal year (FY) 2009 budgets balanced while at the same time struggling to enact new ones for FY 2010. Hemorrhaging revenues drove the massive difficulties they faced. No matter how pessimistic revenue forecasts were, actual collections seemed to come in lower. This happened over and over and over again. Ultimately, states were not just faced with lower revenue growth rates, they confronted year-over-year declines in actual collections.

The worsening revenue situation produced gaping budget holes. Lawmakers closed a cumulative shortfall that reached $113.2 billion for FY 2009. But as bad as that situation was, the circumstances for FY 2010 already are worse. As lawmakers assembled their FY 2010 budgets, they faced a staggering gap of more than $142.6 billion. That is the total shortfall states had to close as they enacted their new budgets. It does not include any new gaps that may open after the fiscal year begins.

[ozymandius]

59. Off Topic: But did I mention the shit I went through with the purchase of a new Mac?

I bought the item from an Ebay vendor. This vendor has been absolutely stellar in his handling of the situation. I would buy from him again.

United Parcel Service epitomizes the worst service that I could imagine. This is the second time in a year that an item shipped through their network has been broken. The box containing the Mac was crushed accordion-style. The machine would not get to step #1 in the boot process.

UPS was supposed to collect the damaged package Thursday of last week. They did not. I called at 6pm last Thursday evening to inquire about the pickup. The representative told me that the driver would arrive without fail before concluding his evening delivery run. Apparently, this statement could be summed up as an exercise in wishful thinking.

I called Friday morning at 8am to relate the information above. The UPS representative said that the driver attempted to collect the item at 6:43 and again at 7:52 yesterday evening. This was a lie. I called again Friday night to offer to deliver the box to the distribution center. The UPS representative told me that would not be possible. The driver must pick it up at the location to place the proper shipping label on the box. He would return on Monday, they said.

I called again Monday morning. The UPS rep said that another pickup attempt was made Friday evening. The driver noted the time at 8pm. Exactly the time I was at home, on the phone, with these idiots. Again, another lie. The driver did not leave the distribution center with the shipping label yesterday. Apparently, he had no intention of collecting the damaged parcel.

The unit shipped back to the seller Monday through my own efforts. I had to speak with two supervisors yesterday morning to make this happen. Swearing over the phone may have helped too. The driver falsified three pickup reports that said the machine was 'not ready' - as in not even packaged and sealed. Lying to cover one's ass sent me ballistic.

The driver falsified three pickup reports and then cast the blame on me saying the item was not packed and sealed. Fucker!

UPS wanted me to wait another day for the pickup. I refused. A national supervisor on the phone arranged to have a local supervisor standing by to receive the package. The clerk at the drop-off desk did not want to take the item because it did not have the proper shipping label. She also did not want to be responsible for the potentiality of the item being stolen somewhere between the drop-off desk and the supervisor's office.

So I called the supervisor on duty at this facility from my cell phone to take physical possession of the box. I left the shipping office when a uniformed UPS employee walked the box away from the counter to a "secure" area. I swear. I never want to use these clowns again. I will pay extra to use USPS or some other shipping service.

[Tansy_Gold]

61. I've had similar problems.

and with FedEx,though not as bad. UPS drivers have left packages in the rain, ignored specific instructions to get a signature before leaving package, handed packages to neighbors without getting signature. Oh, yeah, and they've opened my gate backwards in spite of explicit directions DO NOT OPEN GATE.

:hug: Come, we go get two nice big sweet pink Daiquiris with lotsa ice.

[ozymandius]

63. Heh! Just like the lady said in the shipping office said yesterday.

I refused to wait yet another day and quickly related my experience with the serial liar driver to the counter clerk. A lady standing next to me says that she lives in an apartment and, almost to the letter, described everything you just mentioned. It feels as though they are advertising their desire to go out of business.

[DemReadingDU]

66. That is awful, Ozy

We're in Ohio, and so far, have always had very good experience with UPS. I'll remember your saga though. yikes.

[mullard12ax7]

68. Lesson in corruption: Caterpiller profits dn 66%, stock up 9%

CAT is going to make less profit, is laying off 1000s, closing factories and demand is expected to be weak well into the future and yet the stock is up? How does that happen: propaganda is thy name, "hope" is thy game:


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Caterpillar-2Q-profit-falls-apf-457592385.html?x=0

[Ghost Dog]

73. China to boost economic ties with U.S. amid financial crisis: ambassador

BEIJING, July 21 (Xinhua) -- A senior Chinese diplomat said here on Tuesday that China welcomes Washington's economic stimulation plans and hopes such measures will yield more results.

"We will enhance policy coordination on macro-economics and expand economic and trade cooperation with the United States," said Zhou Wenzhong, Chinese ambassador to the United States, in an interview with Xinhua.

China will, along with U.S. efforts, is pushing for the reform of the international financial system, tighter financial monitoring and the preservation of the stability of the international financial market so as to pull world economy back to the regular track of development, Zhou said.

...

Comprehensive changes were occurring in the international situation and the global financial crisis was expanding, Zhou said.

"Under such a context, the responsibility that was shouldered by both China and the United States of safeguarding world peace and stability was much more great," Zhou said.

/... http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-07/21/content_11746576.htm

[Ghost Dog]

74. Chinese premier urges long-term preparedness for global downturn

BEIJING, July 20 (Xinhua) -- Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao urged long-term preparedness for dealing with the global downturn, saying China will tackle the development issue through reform at a meeting for Chinese diplomats Monday.

Chinese President Hu Jintao also made a speech at the four-day meeting.

Wen said that the global financial crisis has plunged the world into deep recession, and it's difficult to say the global downturn has reached the bottom.

"The recovery of the global economy will be a slow process with twists and turns, there must be a long-term preparedness to effectively deal with (the global downturn)," said Wen.

Wen said that China will stick to mutual-beneficial strategy of opening-up and the use of outbound investments. China will combine expansion of domestic demand with stabilizing foreign demand, continue to use foreign investment, and accelerate the pace of "going out" strategy, Wen said.

Wen said China will continue to reform the RMB, or yuan, exchange rate forming mechanisms, and maintain the yuan's exchange rate at a stable level.

China will participate extensively in international cooperation in non-traditional fields and further work with other countries to address the climate change issue, Wen said.

/.. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-07/20/content_11740826.htm