EXCLUSIVE: Sestak Intends To Run For (PA) Senate

[kpete]

Source: Talking Points Memo

EXCLUSIVE: Sestak Intends To Run For Senate
By Brian Beutler - May 27, 2009, 4:02PM

Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) is privately telling supporters that he intends to run for Senate, TPMDC has confirmed.

"He intends to get in the race," says Meg Infantino, the Congressman's sister, who works at Sestak for Congress. "In the not too distant future, he will sit down with his wife and daughter to make the final decision."

The move would constitute a primary challenge to Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA), who intends to run for re-election in 2010, after having switched parties earlier this year.

Earlier today, a Sestak volunteer and contributor received a handwritten note from Sestak himself, announcing his intent to run and asking for a contribution. The source provided TPMDC a scan of the letter, which can be seen here.

Read more: http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/05/exclusive-sestak-intends-to-run-for-senate.php?ref=fpa

[DebbieCDC]

1. Excellent!

Out with that POS Specter!
:woohoo:

[mvd]

2. Good news

He would have my vote.

[onehandle]

3. Sestak vs. a long time Senator and a wildly popular sitting President.

Not to mention the $$$ on the Senator's side.

I can call this one right now.

[T Wolf]

4. I agree that his odds are long - but there are a lot of Democrats in PA who will NOT vote

for Spectre, no matter what. Count me among them.

[onehandle]

7. I expect that many moderate Republicans will cross the line and vote for Specter.

In the General election for sure. Dunno how the primaries work up there. If they can, I bet they'll cross there as well.

Their numbers will make up for Dems who sit it out.

The wingers will vote for whatever nazi the GOP puts up for the General.

My money is on Spectre... uh, Specter... Actually, Obama and DNC $.

[MH1]

18. Count me, too

it's a no-brainer.

[AlinPA]

6. How about a Democrat v a long time republican? I admit the president muddies it for Sestak.

[Juche]

20. Specter doesn't have a chance

Here is why:

1. When polls of Lamont vs Lieberman were being done in 2006 they showed Lieberman far ahead. But Lamont won the nomination. Polls of Sestak vs Specter are far closer than they ever were between Lamont/Lieberman. A good deal of the fact that Specter is winning in polls is that most people don't know who Sestak is.

2. Nobody who votes in the dem primary will have voted for Specter (in a primary before), so there is not that hurdle of getting people to change behavior like there was with Lieberman vs Lamont

3. Sestak already has 3.5 million in his treasury and the netroots (because we are pissed about these backroom deals) and unions will probably throw several million more into him. So funding will not be a problem. I'll throw a hundred or more into him too, just out of indignation and rage about these insulting, undemocratic backroom deals. I think people underestimate the role of the rage and indignation factor in the 2010 primary.

4. Specter does not have the support of unions (he abandoned EFCA) or liberals (because he isn't a real democrat, he is a moderate republican). Liberals and unions are the true powerhouses of the democratic party, and will make up a huge percentage of volunteers, voters and funding in the primary. Sestak will get their support, Specter will not.

5. Pennsylvania has a closed primary, so only people registered as democrats can vote. So many of the people who voted for Specter in 2004 to win the election (republicans and independents) are not going to be allowed to vote in the 2010 primary. On the other hand the kinds of people who vote for Sestak (democrats) are the only ones allowed to vote.

All in all, it seems almost guaranteed Specter is gone. Fine by me.

Obama also campaigned for Lieberman in 2006, and Lieberman still lost. The fact that Obama is wildly popular (he was popular in 2006 too due to his keynote speech in 2004) doesn't change the fact that Obama supports candidates who do not support democratic policies. Lieberman is actually a very strong democrat on everything except foreign policy (from what I remember). Specter isn't a democrat at all on foreign or domestic issues.

The people of CT were not cowed by Obama enough to abandon their principles and vote for Lieberman, and they will not be cowed in 2010 to abandon their principles and values vote for Specter either. I predict the biggest impact Obama's campaigning will have is to make Obama himself appear even more unprincipled than he already does (Obama has already abandoned his principles on single payer, gay marriage, dont ask dont tell, marijuana decriminalization, telecom immunity and probably a variety of other issues where before he became president he said one thing then said something else after being president). In my view, Obama supporting Specter will mainly hurt himself, not help Specter.

Not only that, but like I said Lieberman had several things going for him that Specter does not

1. People were used to voting for him in a primary
2. He is a very strong democrat on most issues other than foreign policy (healthcare, education, unions, environment, etc).

Specter gets almost no votes from democrats in his elections (his votes come from independents and republicans, neither of whom can vote in a closed PA primary), and he is not a democrat and does not support the democrats on most issues.

And Lieberman still lost.

[onehandle]

21. Lieberman was hated nationally by many. Specter is not hated on such a scale.

Everybody and his brother wanted to see Lieberman lose in the primary.

Unless Obama is a fool, the numbers were ran plenty to see the outcome.

If Obama works for Specter like he promised, and Specter loses, Obama Will look like a fool.

They must have the numbers. Why would Obama play the game otherwise?
(and don't say to get 60 in the Senate, because that 60 is meaningless with bluedogs in the mix)

This isn't the same as Lieberman.

It will be interesting to see what the Unions do. If they stay out or work half heartedly for Sestak, then I will be proven right.

Oh, and Lieberman, I believe, is currently serving in the United States Senate, so never say never.

BTW, how far in advance would Independents and Moderate Republicans have to register as a Democrat for the primary?

[w4rma]

23. A catch 22 exists: If Obama pushes Specter over the edge, like he promised, Obama will look like a

fool, also.

[onehandle]

24. Specter wants to win one more term and retire.

He hates losing. He made a deal to guarantee a win.

[w4rma]

27. He made a deal because it was his best shot at winning another term. (nt)

[Juche]

25. Why would Obama play the game?

I don't know, but he supported Lieberman in 2006 and that didn't work out either. I think a month or so before the election is when you must register to change parties. However I do not see oodles of independents and republicans going through the motions to do that. Personally I'd love to see this blow up in Obama's face and see Sestak win in a landslide so Obama realizes we democrats are not all mindless worshippers of his who agree with whatever he tells us. We are not fawning subjects, we are citizens of a democracy.


I think unions will go strong for Sestak. The senate is the bottleneck holding EFCA back, and Sestak is far better than Specter on that issue. The dems could pick up 4-7 senate seats in 2010. Sestak says Specters opposition to EFCA is a major reason he is thinking of running. So unions will go strongly for someone like that. And PA is a union state, so they will play a big role. EFCA sails through the house, but the senate holds it back. I would bet the unions put tens of millions into those handful of competitive senate races in 2010.

However you have to take into account that Specter has won primaries and elections by winning the votes of republicans in the primary and republicans combined with independents in the general. Neither republicans or independents can vote in the primary.

Assume 10% of democrats in PA vote for Specter in the general election (and 60% of independents and 90% of republicans, as a guess), and that the other 90% of those democratic voters who voted in the general voted for an actual democrat. Why will 51% of democrats vote for him in the primary when they can vote for an actual democrat in the primary? Why are the percentages of registered democrats voting for Specter 10% for, 90% against in the general, but they will somehow be 51% for, 49% against in the primary?


If everyone wanted to see Lieberman lose, why did he come out ahead in polling a few months before the election? And why did Obama support him if everyone wanted him to lose?

Specter is hated in very severe ways, he is not some beloved figure after pulling this crap of switching parties solely to win reelection in 2010. He, along with the democratic leadership in the senate did something very, very undemocratic by trying to clear the primary in 2010 of any challengers so that a guy who isn't even a democrat has an election (which you are supposed to win fair and square) handed to him.

Basically the democratic leadership worked with Specter to undermine democracy (by trying to hand him a primary victory on a silver platter) so that Specter would win reelection even though he has no intention of supporting democratic policies.

Again, I think people are underestimating the role indignation and rage will play in the 2010 primary. Tons of people are going to donate to Sestak just as a 'eff you' to Harry Reid and Specter for doing this. I'm going to donate to Sestak just out of injustice and anger. Several people in this thread are saying the same thing.




Basically here is what I don't get.



1. Specter is not a democrat and doesn't vote like one, and given a choice between an actual democrat with democratic principles and values vs. Specter, for some reason 51% of democratic voters in the primary will chose Specter even though in the general election, when given a choice, people with democratic party registration and democratic values will pick the democratic candidate 90% of the time.

2. Sestak will have the support of liberals and unions, who make up a huge part of volunteers and funding. Sestak already has 3.5 million.

3. A vote for Sestak is not just a vote for Sestak, it is a vote against undemocratic backroom deals and spineless democratic leadership. A dollar donated to Sestak is not just a dollar for a democratic primary, it is a dollar designed to tell Harry Reid to go fuck himself for pulling this spineless (Specter isn't even changing his positions), undemocratic agenda on the people of PA. So Sestak will get many votes and dollars based on that alone (including some of my money and the money of several people on this thread).

[onehandle]

28. Well, this may be a stumble for Obama.

If Sestak wins and Specter is toast, believe me, I would be happy.

Hopefully the GOP's candidate will be right of Santorum, then Sestak would win the General with ease.

And I'm sure Rahm has a plan to keep the fallout to a minimum if/when this goes down to shield the President.

[No Elephants]

30. The good news: Nowadays, Republicans are union folk, too.

[No Elephants]

29. I hope you're right, but Obama was not President when he campaigned for LIeberman in 2006. Many

had no real clue who he was.

[Qutzupalotl]

5. I like Sestak.

In a closed primary like PA has, he should do pretty well against a former GOPer. He is at a name-recognition disadvantage, though.

Let's hear it for real Democrats over fake Democrats!

[Juche]

40. Sestak has another year to get name recognition

Polls taken back in early 2007 showed Obama losing everything but Illinois and DC when put up against McCain, and the reason was name recognition. Everyone knew who McCain was, nobody really knew who Obama was.

Name recognition can be fixed in a few months, I'm not too worried about it.

[AllentownJake]

8. Wonderful

Between the Governor's race and this one, I'm going to have a very interestin 18 months.

[Renew Deal]

9. Sestak is closer to where the party should be than Specter.

I understand why Specter is "supported", but an 80+ former republican isn't really what our side is about.

[ebbie15644]

10. I'll vote for him!

I hope this is true!!

[Skink]

11. Would spector become an Independent if he lost a primary challnge?

[DebbieCDC]

12. I don't think PA allows that

He can't pull a Liarman in PA, if I recall earlier postings about this same topic

[BumRushDaShow]

13. Yes - he could run as an Independent

in the general election and do a Lieberman.

This Senatorial election is going to be a mess. Sigh. If Specter does go through with this, he will have the Philadelphia vote (which is the only reason why he is in office right now). He is embedded here and has a home here. Too many people, including many on DU, keep underestimating the Philadelphia vote. And if, as it seems has happened, Specter is supported by Obama and Rendell, then Sestak will definitely be swimming upstream.

I think everyone here was happy that he deep-sixed Weldon (who long-past needed to be booted), but the feeling is that Sestak is more of a moderate than a liberal and originally did not support Obama during the primaries (where Philadelphia voted >80% for Obama).

[Demit]

14. No, he can't. PA has a 'Sore Loser Law.'

The law prevents someone who lost in a party primary from running as an independent in the general election.

[No Elephants]

31. How undemocratic--for Pennsy. Wish that Connecticcut had had one, though. Yeah,

I've lost my prnciples since 11/4/08.

[Demit]

37. Only 4 states don't.

I don't know how undemocratic it is. After all, the law doesn't say a candidate can't take office if he wins the general—and he could win if more voters voted for him as a write-in candidate than voters who voted for names on the actual ballot. Very unlikely in reality, but theoretically that avenue is there. Hey, just galvanize the people to vote for you! Power to the people!

Seems to me that candidates who don't win their party's election but still want to run in the general election are wanting it both ways. They want the benefits—muscle and money—that comes from being allied with an organization, but don't want to accept the downside, the decision that party members (voters) make not to choose them in a primary election.

[notheyrejustwrong]

15. What's the chance of Specter NOT running?

He could spend the next year repairing/polishing his 'legacy' by supporting the President on health care and other issues, take a 'principled' stand against EFCA, and then support it if there some minor concessions (allowing him to save face) and then say "Hey, I'm gettin' pretty old, I've had cancer plus a primary fight, not to mention a general election, would be a real pain. Maybe it's time I walk off the stage?"
Any thoughts?

[No Elephants]

33. Seems you're assuming sanity, rather than vanity. It's Spectre.

[bkkyosemite]

16. It's time for this Country to be run by the people. If I have it I will donate to this guy..I like

what he says.

[Wednesdays]

17. K&R

:kick:

[Hepburn]

19. Woot ~~ a REAL Democrat in the race!

:applause: I will donate to him!

[w4rma]

22. He's a very good and honorable choice. (nt)

[Kingofalldems]

26. Spector reminds me of someone at a popular Democratic

web site. Claims to be a Democrat but is repub through and through.

[T Wolf]

32. "Someone?" I would assert that you are describing a sizeable minority (or more) of DU.

I can call myself anything I want, but that does not make it true.

[No Elephants]

34. In funds, Torsella and Sestak are doing

very well.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0409/Sestak_for_Senate.html

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0409/21253_Page2.html

[No Elephants]

35. Uh-oh. Sestak may be pro union, but is he also

pro labor?

"Sestak has also "developed a reputation for being a temperamental and demanding boss" due to reports that thirteen staffers have quit his employment in 2007. Aides are purportedly expected to work seven days a week, including holidays, for 14 hours a day. Sestak justifies these hours, which are considered long even by the standards of Capitol Hill, by presuming to instill a military-minded "toughness" in his civilian staff.<18>"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Sestak

[guitar man]

36. I like the guy, but

does he really have the look for it?



:rofl:





(aww, c'mon, somebody had to do it) :D

[kirby]

39. Lol!

Love the Sleestack.

[PBass]

38. I'm going to send Sestak at least 50 bucks, and I don't even live in PA...

LETS DUMP ARLEN SPECTER.

No more "DINOS", I would like to put ALL elected Dems on notice that they too can be 'primaried' and replaced with BETTER Dems!!!