STOCK MARKET WATCH, (Trading closed - but free for discussion)

[ozymandius]

Monday February 16, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 343
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY...
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 66 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 118 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 330
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 814
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON February 13, 2004

Dow... 10,627.85 -66.22 (-0.62%)
Nasdaq... 2,053.56 -20.05 (-0.97%)
S&P 500... 1,145.81 -6.30 (-0.55%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.05% -0.01 (-0.25%)
Gold future... 410.80 -3.40 (-0.82%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [email protected]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

THE DOW REPORT
"Dow Theory"

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has managed to move to yet another high this week. However, this high has thus far not been confirmed by the Dow Jones Transportation Average. This has set up what is known as a Dow theory non-confirmation. In fact, the Transports have also moved below their last secondary reaction low, which occurred on November 21, 2003. This intra-day low occurred at 2,837.42. From a Dow theory perspective, we use the daily close and that was also seen on November 21, 2003 at 2,837.42. So we now have two closing lows below both of these levels. This can be seen by the blue line on the chart of the Transports below. This violation strongly suggests that the intermediate term trend for the Transports has now turned down. It would take a move by the Transports back above the January highs to correct this condition. Anything is possible, but given the overbought levels of the market it is doubtful if this non-confirmation will be corrected. Any closing low below the February 4, 2004 low at 2,822.11 will serve as confirmation that this decline is just beginning. Such a decline would also serve as additional confirmation that we are not likely to see the Dow theory non-confirmation corrected any time soon and we should then expect to see the Industrials follow the Transports downward.

Mr. Wood makes very technical concepts easy to understand

[54anickel]

15. Ozy, question for you.

I am not up on the Kondratieff Long Wave theory. I've just started looking into it today as I have seen reference to the K-wave winter coming up so often in recent articles.

I have only looked at this following link so far. Do you have any good links or references on the K-theory?

http://www.ldusa.com/roger/kond_overview.htm


It is a facinating topic, it seems to suggest that these seasons are bound to take place regardless of monetary policy. If we do fall into the K-winter in the near future this theory would certainly be given credence from 1789 thru the present.

The table at the site above surely makes a compelling argument. I'd like to do a bit more research. Thought you may have some good links. I am becoming a bit of a lazy researcher these days.

[ozymandius]

16. Hi 54anickel. I'm glad I checked back.

I was almost gone for the day.

After browsing some websites, I found some information that piqued my interest regarding the Kondratieff Economic Theory. First, I found references in Paul Krugman's book "The Great Unraveling" and in reference to economic theories by John Maynard Keynes and Joseph Alois Schumpeter.

Here are some of the more interesting papers I ran across: Why The Wall Street Bubble Must Burst?

In 1938, and in the teeth of the longest and fiercest depression that the United States had ever known, capital spending hit an all time high. That’s right! In 1938 the men who owned America began to pour millions of Dollars into new plant and equipment as if there was no tomorrow. We don’t think much about it today, because it has been a long time since the United States has experienced a real bone jolting economic slowdown. The fact is, however, that the very best time for the industrialist to invest in new technologies is in the middle of a depression. This is because it is at such times that labor, raw materials, and new equipment can be purchased at rock bottom prices.

Henry Ford may have jumped the gun a bit. He shut down his River Rouge plant for two years starting in 1932 so that it could be completely rebuilt. Being a bit of a genius, Ford used his time and money to redesign the plant to create one of the most powerful little engines ever built: the Ford V8. This engine was so good that it was modified only slightly to equip certain aircraft for use in World War II. It also powered a series of red hot Ford cars all the way through the 1950s. At the same time that Ford was rebuilding his River Rouge plant, Joseph Alois Schumpeter, an Austrian economist who had migrated to Harvard University, was hard at work on a book that would explain the paradox suggested above, namely the timing of business cycles and technological change. <cut>

Not only is Schumpeter's definitive two volume study of the business cycle not on college reading lists today, but, indeed, it continues to languish in its first edition. The embarrassing truth is that Schumpeter's real masterpiece remains almost unread. The present writer checked out this forgotten work from one of our leading university research libraries to discover that Schumpeter's book had been borrowed only a total of fourteen times in the nearly four decades from June 1961 to the present! <cut - past WWII>

After the conflict(WWII), of course, and all the way through the 1970s, it was widely believed that the business cycle had been repealed by means of the clever economic manipulations suggested by the British Lord John Maynard Keynes. College kids in the halcyon 1960s were taught by their professors that the economy was not one of scarcity, but, rather, of endless abundance. The Great Society had arrived. Keynesian economics was in its glory days. This new body of thought and practice was one of the British Empire's last and most influential exports. If Keneysianism had, indeed, hung the business cycle by the neck until dead, then the only decent thing to do was to bury the corpse. Schumpeter's text, unfortunately, was placed alongside the remains of business cycle it its tomb. <cut> Some fifty years later, there are those who, like the present writer, appear to suspect that the business cycle, too, is back. The highly respected Investors' Business Daily recently devoted a full-length front page article to the following shocking idea: Ominous Parallels To Late 1920s?

Then As Now: Roaring Stocks, Deflation, Stingy Feds. If what the IBD is worried about turns out to be true, the American economy could be in for hard times again!

LINK: http://www.freeessays.cc/db/11/bmu415.shtml

I found a bit more here:
http://www.rf-institute.com/crime/005corporate.html

<excerpt>
THE MACRO-STRUCTURAL LEVEL The macro-structural level of operations of corporations lead them to commit crime. It is the most fruitful level upon which to work to understand why so many people die needlessly; why so much money is stolen from the pockets of workers and customers.

A macro-structural analysis of corporate crime includes several topics which we will find embedded in all the Lectures in this series. We will list them for you so you will know what to look for and how to fit this material into the larger theoretical understanding of crime.

There are several interrelated characteristics of capitalism as a system, which in spite of its many positive features, tend to produce corporate crime. The same structures tend to promote street crime and political crime as well so take enough time to commit them to memory. <cut>

(There are three kinds: short term waves from 2 to 5 years; 10-15 year cycles and long term waves from 30 to 50 years in length. The long waves are called Kondratieff waves. The 15 year cycles are called Kutznet waves; short term cycles can be called minicycles).

I do not know what to make of this correlation between Kondratieff waves, crime and economic theory other than to say: the game is rigged. But then... America has been the biggest PR sham in the history of the world. Meaning: "Anyone can become president"; "America is the land of opportunity where anyone can become wealthy if they work hard enough" - and so on.

[54anickel]

17. Thank you Ozy, I am glad you checked back!!

I will go thru the links you provided. I have Krugman's book, just haven't started reading it yet. I'll have to pick that one off of my stack next.

This K-wave seems interesting, just don't know what to make of it. I'll keep reading.

[ozymandius]

2. JOE'S DINER - new to FSO (theme and related articles)

This week's theme: "Global Oil Supplies May Fall Short"

Global oil supplies could start to have difficulty meeting growing demand after 2007, according to a recent analysis of existing and planned major oil-recovery projects published this month in Petroleum Review. ARTICLE & REPORT (pdf)

A prominent Houston energy analyst and investment banker is questioning whether Saudi Arabia will be able to continue playing the role of swing producer for the global oil market. ARTICLE (WSJ/sub)

The problem of widening wage inequality is not new, and is rooted in long-term trends. The rise of technology in the workplace puts a premium on educated workers and eats into the bargaining power of the less-skilled. The entry of about a million immigrants a year, puts downward pressure on wages in many low-income jobs. Offshore outsourcing of jobs and falling union representation also play a role. ARTICLE

Today's civilization depends on an abundant and relatively cheap supply of oil. It fuels most of our vehicles, aircraft, ships, and trains. It provides the raw material for fertilizer, some clothing fabrics, most plastics, and many chemicals. Oil heats many of our homes and businesses. So when experts discuss when oil production will begin to decline, the world pays heed. The question now making the rounds in energy circles: Has production already peaked? ARTICLE

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/posts/dancy/diner.html

[54anickel]

14. Peak oil? So happy we are subsidizing all those hummers being

purchased for the tax-break implemented for businesses.

:grr: :nuke: :scared:

[ozymandius]

3. Do Not Fall For Wall Street Hype - by Robert B. Gordon, Sc. D.

WHAT’S WRONG WITH WALL STREET?

FOREWORD

There are many very serious problems in our enormous and broad financial industry which are magnified by the ignorance and gullibility of the American public. Our public press has been covering the current SEC investigation into illegal actions in our financial firms, brokers and mutual funds. However, they have not done anything to explain how investors can help themselves do a better job of protecting themselves from a fleecing by the "wolves" of Wall Street. That is what I intend to do in this writing. Please read carefully and get its important message.

WHAT’S WRONG WITH WALL STREET?

The Wall Street apparatus thrives on huge bull market profits and has so far been able to survive earlier bear markets that lasted 2 or 3 years. But this huge bear that is just starting to develop will be very different in both length and intensity. Wall Street will probably survive in some form, but will be greatly reduced in size and importance.

<cut>
I have stressed this importance in many essays. My readers have learned that the lessons of previous bull and bear cycles are the most important lessons of all for an investor or advisor. Without a good knowledge of the great history lessons, no one should be buying or selling stocks and funds. The tiny percentage of knowledgeable investors who enter the market with full awareness of whether it is starting to go down from a peak or starting up from a bottom will have a huge advantage.

<cut>
AN URGENT CALL TO ACTION

Although we are facing the deepest and longest bear market in world history, literally tens of millions of Americans are totally unaware of this dire fact. Having succumbed to the hype of Wall Street, CNBC and our public press, their investments and retirement plans are at risk of terrible losses. I urge all of our readers, new and old, to review all of their investments right now. Take action and sell potential losers like aggressive stocks and funds that have done so well in the past year. The market climate is about to change dramatically.

more here

[JNelson6563]

4. Good article Ozy!

Happy Monday to ya! Closed markets should make for a quiet day. A reprieve as it were.

I can only wonder when the reckoning will begin. We should all be ready for the worst, just in case.

Busy times, politically speaking, here in my world. Hope it's all good in your world.

Julie

[radfringe]

5. Good Morning all!

Yeah, I have pResident's day off from work... but not from household jobs... have to make new shelves for under the kitchen sink...

Meanwhile... a couple of ramblings..

Two figures have been cited for job creation in 2004

1. 2.6 million jobs in 2004 works out to approximately 210,000 jobs per month. January '04 report indicated 112,000 jobs had been created - this leaves a JOB CREATION DEFICIT of 98,000 jobs.

2. In other news releases - Bush upped the job creation numbers to 3.2 million for 2004. This figure means approximately 266,000 jobs per month. Given January's job creation numbers -- the JOB CREATION DEFICIT stands at 154,000 jobs.

We may want to note -- no one has said whether or not all or some of these jobs would be created in the US.......

I suggest that when talking about the JOB-LOSS recovery, that we also mention the JOB CREATION DEFICITS :evilgrin:

------

about the piehole effect -- we've seen it in action from time to time but the PPT seems to tampen it's overall effect

We may see a new twist the Piehole effect in the coming months. During the 2000 campaign, on another message board - someone mentioned that he had noticed a correlation between polling numbers and the markets. Whenever new polls were announced, which showed bush* leading Gore, the markets took a dip that day, conversely if Gore's numbers were up, the markets did fairly well for the day.

it may or may not be a correlation -- but it might be interesting to keep an eye on it

[ozymandius]

6. Good morning Rad, Julie and all!

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

It's a pleasure to spend some time with you here today. Rad, I caught your thread about the job deficit - big and getting bigger. I almost pity the fool, W*, but then it's impossible to feel sorry for Chaos Capitalists like Bush and his neo-con buddies.

The coming months, as you mention Rad, will be curious indeed in seeing how bush stakes his claim on the Presidency. I suspect that some "coitus interruptus" plan is in the works: "Do not change leaders while the screwing of the world is unfinished." Meanwhile, the market is overvalued. Industries still shed workers. The tax base shrinks as Republicans argue over *how* to make the Bush tax cuts permanent. Where is the floor and where is the ceiling for corporate giveaways?

Anyway, President Stupid has his work cut out for him. Pass the popcorn.

[radfringe]

11. Do not change leaders while the screwing of the world is unfinished."

He's already starting on that recycled line... '..stay the course..'

don't forget he thinks he's the heir to reagan... the great miscommunicator

a woman I work with has two jobs, one full time during the week, and 3 nights a week she "makes the donuts" at local donut shop. She has two grown kids at home, one is working as a substitute teacher -- been trying to get full-time work as teacher but...schools in the area aren't hiring (no money in budget). Her son does something with computer programming/IT work -- he can't find a job in his field.

Times are tough, and she's working two jobs to just make ends meet.

she asked me the other day which DEM candidate I liked. I went through the list, giving her my opinion of who and what I thought of them

she "confessed" that she had voted for bush* solely on the fact that he was 'pro-life'. I snorted - yeah, pro-life alright -- a terrorist attack, two wars and warming up for another war is really pro-life

she nodded, I know, that's why I switched party registration and will vote Democratic...

I'm hearing more and more people "grousing" about bush*, the level of anger and frustration is like nothing I have ever seen before. Some of the guys at work that had no previous 'interest' in what's going on in this country are coming up to me with newspaper clippings, questions and asking my opinion...

Over the weekend I caught a documentry on the tube about JFK and the cold war. They went into a segment about the space program. One commentator said "..he took our fears and transformed them into hope..."

all bush* is doing is taking our fears and manipulating them for political gain

[54anickel]

13. Seeing much of the same thing in my circle of friends, family and

co-workers (former - we still stay in touch). People are catching on to Shrub and are getting worried about their futures. My sister is a fundie, but won't be voting for Shrub. My co-workers were almost all in the 20 something age group and all for Shrub and his stupid war. The company we were with was Repug in its mentality (still is). Owner stated in a quarterly meeting during the lead up to the war that "War is good for the economy". Yep, it's been great so far hasn't it. :eyes:

Most of the folks I know will not vote for Shrub. Some are sitting on the fence as far as voting for a Dem or just staying home. Still have a few Shrub diehards, but the numbers in my world are shrinking.

[54anickel]

7. Good morning all.

Mutual-fund surge worries some analysts
(Yet notice the ads to the right) :evilgrin:

snip>
But the inflow of $40.8 billion last month -- the third best for any month since 1992 -- may not be as positive as it appears. Some analysts consider it a sign that investors may be too bullish, jumping into 2003's best bets, like foreign and smaller-company stocks, which have already had big runs.

The three main stock market gauges are up 43 percent or more since the market revival began last March, and neither the Dow Jones industrial average nor the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index has suffered a significant sell-off since April.

Despite the stock gains and all the positive indicators of sentiment, many analysts see reasons to be cautious. The last time money poured into stock mutual funds at a pace like this was in the first two months of 2000. In March, the stock market bubble burst, sending the S&P 500 index down as much as 49.1 percent in the three-year sell-off and the Nasdaq composite index down 77.9 percent.


http://www.kansas.com/mld/kansas/business/7956283.htm

That's about all there is to the article.

[Paulie]

10. It could also be company matching funds being deposited

My employer is dumping it's 401k contrib portion this week. Not all companies match throughout the year.

Just something to add. :)

[54anickel]

12. Thanks Paulie. That has been mentioned here before. I think it was

Frodo that brought it up. I wonder what the percentage of companies that hold their matching contributions is. The company I worked for matched throughout the year.

Probably is part of it. According to the article it was a pretty big chunk of change going in though. It would have been nice if they would have given the 2 other leading months since '92.

But the inflow of $40.8 billion last month -- the third best for any month since 1992 .

[masmdu]

8. Market Forecast....Dow/S&P

High was 2/13.....down to Low on 2/26... up to high on 3/8....then BIG DOWN into first week of April.

(Save this forecast...track it....and I'll be back during 4/1-7 to see where we are...I expect a great buying opp then)

m

[54anickel]

9. An article reviewing the history of the dollar and how we got to the

current "currency games". It is rather interesting, and I do think we are about to see an evolution, once again, in the world monetary policy.
The author sees the rememdy as returning to the gold standard, but that is not the reason for my posting it. (Don't want to get that "Gold-bug" label.)
Who really knows what it will evolve into. I believe the important part is that there is growing recognition that it is time for a change.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Appel/feb132004.html

snip>

All of these factors worked well for quite some time. In the U.S., it allowed our citizens to lead a far better lifestyle and enjoy a higher standard of living than would have otherwise been the case. We did not have to sacrifice our precious gold hoard, as we would have under the gold standard, in order to settle our balance of payments deficits. We not only weren’t forced to reduce our money supply, but were able to expand it. Foreigners continued to treat the dollar as if it remained as good as gold. We simply transferred electronic dollar credits to pay for our foreign purchases. Additionally, the abrogation of the gold standard forestalled a serious economic decline that would have been mandatory under its rule. Each time our economy has contracted the Fed effortlessly expanded the money supply and reduced interest rates. Even today this method appears to be working. However, the time will come when the piper will have to be paid, and time may be running out.

The other nations are beginning to recognize the trap into which they have fallen. They see the dollar declining and gold rising in value and have heard from the lips of Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and Fed Governor Ben Bernanke that the U.S. has the ability to create dollars at will. Large foreign dollar holdings have been converted into euros and some into gold. Further, there is talk of not only repricing oil in euros but in the creation of new gold backed currencies. Either of these events will play havoc on the dollar as its usefulness to the rest of the world will decline, and with it both the dollar’s desirability and worth. For these reasons, I believe that the dollar is destined to gradually lose its global importance.

Additionally, Japan is aggressively purchasing dollars with newly created yen credits. They are attempting to support the dollar in an effort to maintain their competitive trade advantage. This is acting to limit an increase in the U.S. money supply because the dollars purchased are removed from our domestic measures of money. Instead, the dollars are used by Japan to acquire U.S. Treasuries. This is likely the primary reason for our surprisingly strong bond market.

At some juncture I believe that it is inevitable that the U.S. will be forced to again back the dollar with gold. It will not likely occur until the dollar appears to be in the process of or loses its status as the world’s reserve currency. Or, if this is preempted by an economic accident. That is likely the only fashion in which the dollar will have the opportunity to again become universally desirable. This will not occur overnight! Until that time comes, gold and secondarily silver and gold and silver stocks, as well as tangibles, will be the prime beneficiaries of the termination of the gold standard.