STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday December 5

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday December 5, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 46
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2592 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2889
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES &
MARKETS INDICATORS>
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.
$1 USD = EUR 1.06678
$1 USD = JPY 116.6200

In recognition of those prescient of the Dow's precipitous return of Bush values (9/29/08): JuneBourder and AnneD

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 4, 2008

Dow... 8,376.24 -215.45 (-2.57%)
Nasdaq... 1,445.56 -46.82 (-3.14%)
S&P 500... 845.22 -25.52 (-2.93%)
Gold future... 765.50 -5.00 (-0.65%)
30-Year Bond 3.08% -0.10 (-3.14%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.57% -0.11 (-3.96%)






GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [email protected]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp

Still Hitting Extremes
BY MICHAEL PANZNER

For months, the evidence has been clear: Americans are no longer willing or able to consume at the same pace as before. Thus, it should not have been a surprise to anyone (except to Wall Street economists, that is) when the latest monthly report from the International Council of Shopping Centers revealed significant weakness in retail spending. According to the ICSC, November same-store sales fell 2.7% from year-earlier levels, a record low reading.

.....

In recent months, policymakers around the globe have opened up the monetary and fiscal spigots in an attempt to counteract the credit crunch. Although safe haven buying has helped buoy prices on government bonds in spite of the budding tsunami of future supply, there are signs that investors are growing nervous. Premiums on credit default swaps (a type of derivative providing insurance on creditworthiness) for a wide range of sovereign reference credits, including the U.S., Germany, and the United Kingdom, have shot up, suggesting markets are beginning to price in an eventual -- and widespread -- loss of faith in government-issued debt.

-chart-

In looking at the way the bear market has unfolded over the past year or so, it's worth noting that many constituent stocks topped out before -- in some instances well before -- benchmark indices did. In the case of the Dow Jones Industrials, for example, the shares of 16 stocks had already seen their peaks (in many cases, their record highs; in others, their two-year highs) by the time the Dow closed at its all-time high of 14,164.53 on October 9th, 2007.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:30 Average Workweek Nov
Briefing.com 33.6
Consensus 33.6
Prior 33.6

08:30 Hourly Earnings Nov
Briefing.com 0.2%
Consensus 0.2%
Prior 0.2%

08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Nov
Briefing.com -300K
Consensus -325K
Prior -240K

08:30 Unemployment Rate Nov
Briefing.com 6.7%
Consensus 6.8%
Prior 6.5%

15:00 Consumer Credit Oct
Briefing.com $4.0B
Consensus $1.5B
Prior $6.9B

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

32. NFP drop 533,000! Unemployment @ 6.7%

01. U.S. Nov. payrolls drop 533,000 vs. -350,000 expected
8:30 AM ET, Dec 05, 2008

02. U.S. Nov. unemployment rate rises to 6.7% vs. 6.8% expected
8:30 AM ET, Dec 05, 2008

03. U.S. nonfarm payroll losses worst since Dec. 1974
8:30 AM ET, Dec 05, 2008

04. U.S. Oct., Sept payrolls revised down 199,000
8:30 AM ET, Dec 05, 2008

05. U.S. Nov. services jobs fall 370,000, most in 25 years
8:30 AM ET, Dec 05, 2008

06. U.S. Nov. hours worked fall 0.9%
8:30 AM ET, Dec 05, 2008

07. U.S. Nov. average hourly earnings up 0.4% vs. 0.2% expected
8:30 AM ET, Dec 05, 2008

08. U.S. Nov. unemployment rate highest since Oct. 1993
8:30 AM ET, Dec 05, 2008

09. U.S. job losses average 419,000 per month past three months
8:30 AM ET, Dec 05, 2008

10. U.S. Nov. retail jobs down 91,000
8:30 AM ET, Dec 05, 2008

[Pale Blue Dot]

33. That's less bad than expected.

Wanna bet the markets will rally today?

[Pale Blue Dot]

39. Never mind. Futures and overseas markets are plunging.

This is yet another illustration of why I am a teacher and not a financial adviser.

[KayLaw]

34. Holy cats!

:wow:

[Roland99]

Wow. Over a half million jobs. 2million lost on the year! Futures down just over 2%

[tclambert]

48. What's Bush's total on jobs now, for the whole eight years?

He was in positive territory last I looked.

O great and mighty Ozymandius, I move that you add a jobs total to your Bush stats. OK, OK, I'll look it up.

From Bureau of Labor Statistics ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/suppl/empsit.compaes.txt
and http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Total non-farm employees, Jan., 2001: 132,469,000
Current non-farm employees, Nov., 2008: 136,167,000

That's a net gain of almost 3.7 million (3,698,000). Not much for eight years. But more than I expected. I probably need to compare population growth over the same period. Crap. I'm getting into apples and oranges, aren't I?

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

53. Roughly 1.5M a year for population increase.

So, 12M-3.7M= -8.3M!

Chimptastic.

[DemReadingDU]

55. It has something to do with birth/death models

The models aren't exactly correct, therefore, the gain in jobs isn't correct either. Families have fewer children than when the original models were created, and in addition, people are living longer while retired. My guess is that there are some 'phantom jobs', those are jobs 'created' via the old models.

Edit - Something like that, here's a link that explains it better.

12/6/07 NFP: Birth/Death Adjustments
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/12/more-on-birthde.html

[DemReadingDU]

76. Chris Martenson on those birth/death models

12/5/08 Fuzzy Numbers: Jobs report bad at minus 533,000, but made to look better by Chris Martenson

...it would have been worse had it not been for the mysterious positive addition of 30,000 jobs by the so-called birth-death model. From here on out we'll just refer to it as the birth-birth model because no matter how bad the underlying economic data this model somehow always adds jobs in every month except typically January and July when the model backs out a few of its more irrationally exuberant additions.

However, keeping regular track of the amount of fudging in the Birth-Death model is one of my favorite activities because I think it provides insight into just how unreliable government statistical models really are. For a nation that drives economic policy "by the numbers" it's important that the numbers are good. The Birth-Death model provides a valuable caution flag for anyone with a tendency to "believe the numbers" that are being offered up for consumption.

more...
http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/fuzzy-numbers-jobs-report-bad-minus-533000-made-look-better/9760

[Demeter]

128. To Add to the Chagrin--How Can You Trust ANYTHING Printed in the Bushwhacked Years?

And you know, the more I learn about how Clinton kept cleaning up after Poppy, I'm beginning to doubt a lot of the perceived facts about the Clinton years, also. Not everything, mind you, just anything that has Bush-colored fingerprints on it....

[Hugin]

46. From #10... I can only think of one other time retail jobs have declined in Nov.

Say Thanks to Ayn Rand, kids...

THANKS Ayn Rand! :eyes:

[UpInArms]

49. whoa! I was just thinking how the shruggers (hattip to Tansy Gold)

have turned this world into that of Atlast Shrugged - the very scenario that they proclaimed to have been avoiding is the one that we now have

the entire world is lining up begging for our taxpayer debt to increase - whilst a figurehead opens his piehole and pisses me off

[Tansy_Gold]

58. "You asked for it, brother!"

:hi:

[Tansy_Gold]

141. And....

http://venuslaughed.blogspot.com/

[UpInArms]

47. November: Most jobs lost in 34 years

http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/05/news/economy/jobs_november/index.htm

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The economy shed 533,000 jobs in November, according to a government report Friday - bringing the year's total job losses to 1.9 million.

November had the largest monthly job loss total since December 1974.

According to the Labor Department's monthly jobs report, the unemployment rate rose to 6.7% from 6.5% in October. Though lower than economists' forecast of 6.8%, it was the highest unemployment rate since October 1993.

Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast a loss of 325,000 jobs in the month. November's monthly job loss total was greater than October's revised loss of 320,000. Payroll cuts in September were revised up to 403,000, which means two-thirds of this year's job losses have occurred in the last three months.

November's report provided the first glimpse at how employers reacted after the peak of the credit crisis, reached in mid-October. With credit largely unavailable and expensive, consumers scaled back their spending, dragging down manufacturing and construction businesses.

...more...

[Demeter]

130. I Remember 1974--Seeing Engineers 2 Years Ahead of Me Going to Work for Insurance Companies

as safety inspectors....

[UpInArms]

65. U.S. job losses worst since 1974 as recession bites (OMG! check out the Sept and Oct Revisions!)

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE4B437520081205

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. employers axed payrolls by 533,000 jobs in November, the most in 34 years and far more than expected, government data on Friday showed, as the year-old recession hammered every corner of the U.S. economy.

Oil prices and the dollar weakened and U.S. Treasury bond prices rallied on the news that confirms the recession was now hitting activity across the board.

"You can't get much uglier than this. The economy has just collapsed, and has gone into a free fall," said Richard Yamarone, chief economist at Argus Research in New York.

The Labor Department said the unemployment rate rose to 6.7 percent last month to the highest reading since 1993, compared with 6.5 percent in October.

"This is a clear employment blowout. Firms are reacting as dramatically as they can to make sure they have cost structures they can survive the recession we are in," said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, PA.

November's job losses were the steepest since December 1974, when 602,000 jobs were shed, and were much worse than forecast by analysts polled by Reuters who had predicted a reduction of 340,000 jobs.

In addition, job losses in recent months turned out to be worse than previously reported. October's loss was revised to show a cut of 320,000, originally given as a 240,000 loss, while September's drop was revised to 403,000 from 284,000.

That meant 199,000 more jobs were lost in September and October than previously thought and the total reduction in U.S. nonfarm payrolls for the last three months was 1.256 million, with almost 2 million shed in the year so far.

...more...

[Hugin]

68. Yeah, I saw that in the inital reports.

I was waiting for it to take hold. :scared:

[Warpy]

82. This is one of those days that reminds me of my nursing career

There were a few cardiac drugs we'd give that had to be monitored at all times by screens and readouts. There were a few we gave that were so gnarly the best bet was not to look at the screen for the first fifteen seconds to preserve our own cardiovascular systems.

This is one of those days when I'll avoid looking at the numbers on the screen until it's all over.

Remember the good old days when it was good news to have people thrown out of work? Well, even that right wing economic trick is failing to impress investors. They've finally realized they need customers to buy all that crap megacorporations make in China.

[AnneD]

127. The lesson .....

hasn't totally sunk in yet. The market still approves of companies that lay off employees.

[UpInArms]

119. U.S. Oct consumer credit falls for 2nd time in 3 months

3:01 p.m. U.S. Oct. consumer credit down $3.5 billion

3:01 p.m. U.S. Oct. consumer credit down at 1.6% rate

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/US-Occonsumer-credit-falls-2nd/story.aspx?guid=%7B348F73DA%2D09E6%2D48AD%2D9B3D%2DD738EA06A542%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Tightening credit and recession fears have led U.S. consumers to reduce their debt in October for the second time in the past three months. Total seasonally adjusted consumer debt decreased by $3.54 billion, or a 1.6% annual rate, in October to $2.58 trillion, the Federal Reserve reported Friday. Consumer credit rose at a 3.1 % pace in September after dropping a record 3.0% in August. Non-revolving credit - such as auto loans, personal loans and student loans - had the biggest drop in October, falling by $3.3 billion, or 2.5%, to $1.60 trillion. Credit-card debt fell by a slim $181 million, or 0.2%, in October to $976 million.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil at 4-year lows below $44 on dire economic news

SINGAPORE – Oil prices were steady near four-year lows below $44 a barrel Friday in Asia as more bad U.S. economic news soured the outlook for global growth and demand for crude.

Light, sweet crude for January delivery was up 26 cents to $43.93 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore. The contract fell overnight $3.12 to settle at $43.67, the lowest since January 2005.

....

Dismal economic data continued Thursday in the U.S., pointing toward a sharp contraction of gross domestic product in the fourth quarter and weakening demand for crude products, such as gasoline.

....

Investors will be eyeing the Labor Department's November unemployment report on Friday, which economists expect will show that the jobless rate rose to 6.8 percent and that companies cut another 320,000 jobs.

....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures rose 1.05 cent to 98 cents. Heating oil was steady at $1.51 a gallon while natural gas for January delivery slid 8.8 cents to 5.93 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Roland99]

9. Filled up at $1.49/gal last night (w/a 10cent discount)

Can almost fill up with a single $20 bill.

[DemReadingDU]

62. $1.41 SW Ohio, no discount

Unbelievable! But I doubt this cheap price will last forever.

[Roland99]

42. 8:30am - RBOB $0.9370. Oil $42.40

[Roland99]

4. Morning, ozy.

Chilly out there but I don't think the bears are all ready to hibernate.

[ozymandius]

6. G'morning Roland.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

You bet it's icy. Just took the dog out for her morning ritual. At one point in her process, I thought 'this is what the markets are going to look like today'.

[Roland99]

7. I expect somewhat of a rally at the news of drastic job losses, though

Seems the hope of more Fed rate cuts outweighs the lower future sales/profits.

Go figure.

[ozymandius]

10. That phenomenon, rally on job losses, is like a rash under my skin.

I understand the academic part of it: companies' overhead just shrank, therefore they tend to be more profitable. It's the sociological and long-term economic aspects that bug the shit out of me. By slashing jobs, another area of consumers who probably trend toward meaningful discretionary spending has been flattened. That's hardly something to cheer about.

[dweller]

13. morning all

One of the few times i am awake before the SMW is active. And watching the news and thinking the job losses will have the opposite effect on the #'s today.

But then i watched a co-worker walk off the job last evening in an immature snit, and felt he'd really regret that tomorrow/today. So, i'm sure it's influential in my outlook.

of course, that just means more hours for me, so i'll find the bright side in the matter.

It will be an interesting day.
dp

[Hugin]

24. It's another bit of so-called 'elevator trading wisdom' which has gotten out of control.

Yeah, in a Bull market, if a couple of people trade on the 'leaning' of a business it might be profitable, but,
if EVERYONE does it, it leads to disaster.

I guess our short-sighted would-be investor class isn't savvy enough to tell when job-losses are cutting into
the meat and bone... This is no 'cutting-of-the-fat'... This is the end of these corporations as any sort of
enterprise operating in the public interest or in the interest of creating any value for investors.

*sigh* Very depressing.

Edit: On the up-side, there's plenty of fat to cut from the top of our Mushroom Shaped pay-scales. So, if there
were a mass layoff of overpaid CEO's... Well, I might jump into -that- rally. It'll never happen tho, as
they see themselves as the 'talent' ( :snort: :ahahahahah: :guffaw: ) behind the business.

[tclambert]

29. And I agree with you, too.

A company that cuts its workforce is not a growing concern. And I do not know what we can do about the ridiculous executive compensation situation. Even the editorialists at the Wall Street Journal know CEO compensation is out of whack in America. But who can make them all take a pay cut?

[Hugin]

40. Well, Demeter could...

If not for the moratorium.

To hedge on the FRSP, I've gone long on Wilkinson Blades.

[Tansy_Gold]

70. FRSP??? Refresh my memory. . . . . .

(French Revolution Second Phase?) :shrug:

[Hugin]

72. Severance Package.

A golden parachute of sorts.

[Tansy_Gold]

74. Aaaahhhh, yessssss!

:blush:

How could I forget?

[Demeter]

132. WHAT Moratorium? And Who Died and Left Me President?

Only way I'd get elected to anything---

[Hawkowl]

113. Easy solution

Bring back marginal tax rates of 50%, 75% and 90%. This would fix the out of whack pay scale quickly and efficiently. The old reasoning that the reason CEO's make $20 million per year because of "talent" is shattered. We need to sieze this opportunity.

[tclambert]

28. I heartily agree.

[AnneD]

35. Morning Marketeers......

:donut: and lurkers. Rally on job losses is a boil on the butt of Main Street. The longer as that mind set continues-the deeper we will continue to descend down this hole. This destructive thought process started during the late 70's-about the last time the average worker had descent wages (what they use now to show the actual decline in real earnings)-when their wasn't such an outrageous gap between what the CEO makes vs workers.

Any psychologist worth their salt will tell you that the more you make the less satisfied you are and the more you want. It only seems to be magnifies the further up in a company you go. The Boards do not put the breaks on the CEO compensation or CEO's mismanagement of the company. For years-CEO's have hidden this mismanagement by using lay offs and cheesy COLA's to both balance the budget and pacify remaining workers, all the time ignoring the long term disastrous effects this would have to the total economy. Wall Street rewarded this incompetence by driving the company's stock up.

This mind set is nothing more than the end game results of capitalism and unless these wise guys wake up.....they will eventually be taken down too. Most of the wealthy are beginning to get burned-BUT THEY STILL HAVEN'T MADE THE CONNECTION YET. I did however take some heart. On CNN last night at a round table talk-discussion was on the various bail outs 'saving' the economy and one guy actually broke down and said it was all about jobs and until folks had jobs the economy would not recover(he should have mentioned good paying jobs-but he is on the right track).

I will watch the markets today like a teacher looks at her student test scores-to see if they understand the lessons taught and the material covered.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[TalkingDog]

94. **Public Service Announcement** re: dogs & body functions

NEVER, Never tease your dog by patting her distended belly playfully after she has gorged on deer carcass left by lazy hunters, and ask snarkily, "What's in there, thats making all that noise?"

She might just get up, walk into the hallway and demonstrate all over the walls, baseboard and carpet.

And that, my friends, is not just the market today, but probably for months to come.

Hope all are well.

[Hugin]

96. Well, hello to you too, TalkingDog.

Sound advice.

:o

eeeew!

[TalkingDog]

102. No lie....

Having worked in a bar to put myself through college, I can say with certainty that blood, urine, feces, drunks copulating in toilet stalls, glass embedded in flesh or broken appendages don't phase me in the least. I've pulled 2 inch long shards of glass out of the skin covering the backbone of a 'luded up drunken party girl who collapsed in the parking lot at 2 am.

Any disgorged materials on the other hand.....

Sorry, that's left to the Spousal Unit.

I've been peeking in when I can. Today seemed like a good day to check in given the Bread and Puppet Circus of the Big 3 driving their green clown cars to DC for a little "ain't I humble?" spectacle.

That and the ashen sounding voices on the radio each repeating the same "this is horrific" mantra over the employment numbers....

[Demeter]

23. Morning Everybody

I won't say Good, because I haven't anything good to say....

It should be a real heavy Weekend Economists this evening, as I haven't had the heart or time to read or post all week....

I wonder if the UAW could buy out GM and run it with govt. backing....and deep-six GMAC while they're at it.

And somebody somewhere had better stop the CDS!

[Tace]

56. I've Been Thinking About An Employee-Led Buyout, Too

I can tell you, though, that I tried to lead an employee-buyout of United Press International in 1991, but the union, the Wire Service Guild, had no interest whatsoever in such a thing. Effective leadership is a very scarce item.

[Demeter]

131. Windchilll at 5F in Sunny Ann Arbor

Global warming, anyone? To misquote Gandhi, "It would be a good idea!"

[ozymandius]

5. Employers shedding jobs as recession deepens

WASHINGTON – With the economy sinking faster, employers are giving more Americans dreaded pink slips right before the holidays.

The Labor Department releases a new report Friday that's expected to show the employment market deteriorated in November at an alarming clip as the deepening recession engulfed the country.

After bolting to a 14-year high of 6.5 percent in October, the unemployment rate likely climbed to 6.8 percent last month, according to economists' forecasts. If they are right, that would mark the worst showing in 15 years.

.....

Worn-out consumers battered by job losses, shrinking nest eggs and tanking home values have retrenched, throwing the economy into a tailspin. As the unemployment rate continues to move higher, consumers will burrow further, dragging the economy down even more, a vicious circle that Washington policymakers are trying to break.

....

At 12 months and counting, the recession is longer than the 10-month average length of recessions since World War II. The record for the longest recession in the postwar period is 16 months, which was reached in the 1973-75 and 1981-82 downturns. The current recession might end up matching that or setting a record in terms of duration, analysts say.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081205/ap_on_bi_ge/financial_meltdown

[Dr.Phool]

15. Speaking of which. ArcelorMittal to lay off 340 Cleveland steelworkers

Updated at 6:04 p.m.

In the latest blow from the global economic downturn, 340 ArcelorMittal steelworkers will lose their jobs by week's end, a result of steel orders that have reached a low ebb worldwide.


An additional 110 hourly workers voluntarily accepted layoffs, bringing to 450 the number of United Steelworkers union members idled.

"Nobody's buying steel, so it doesn't make sense to make it and let is just sit there," said Dan Boone, 55, who has worked at the plant for 36 years under various owners. Republic Steel once operated the facility, then LTV and now the world's largest steelmaker, ArcelorMittal, based in Luxembourg.

Boone, a resident of Strongsville and vice president of USW Local 979, said this is the first time since fall 2001 that both blast furnaces have been out of operation. The previous time was when LTV shut down the plant and then went out of business. The company can't make iron if the furnaces are not operating.

ArcelorMittal employs 1,445 union members, but many of the remaining 995 jobs could be under threat if the global giant confronts a long period of slow demand, said the local's president, Mark Granakis.

(snip) http://blog.cleveland.com/business/2008/12/arecelormittal_to_lay_off_340.html
________________________________________________________________________

That's almost 30% of their Cleveland workforce. And just the beginning. Not to mention all of the mill supporting industries, trucking, etc.

[ozymandius]

18. Great Scot! That's horrible.

You make a good point there with your corollary with a direction: the loss of jobs as a slowing of economic activity will cause peripheral damage just in Cleveland. What regional and national effect do you think this will have Dr. Phool?

[Dr.Phool]

21. The Cleveland mill is a fully integrated mill.

Unlike mini-mills that just melt down scrap to make fresh steel, everything there is made "from scratch". You have the ore boats and mines from Minnesota. Since both blast furnaces are shut down, they won't need iron ore. Since they shut down the coke batteries their in the '90s, they brought coke in by truck and rail from Youngstown. They won't need coke, which in turn will affect the coal mines in Appalachia. They also use a lot of crap in the mix. Scrap dealers will be hit.

Not to mention machine shops that do special fabricating work for parts in the process. A friend of mine has a machine shop that makes specialized fans for the annealing line furnaces (a special finishing process). He got screwed twice during 2 LTV bankruptcies, but still managed to hang on. This will probably finish him off.

You have construction. Those blast furnaces are either relined or rebuit every few years. At the tune of hundreds of millions dollars, and maybe 1,000 laborors, masons, electricians, etc.

When they finish the final rolling and finishing process on slab stock that they have on hand, there's nothing left to do.

[Hugin]

27. Thanks for the deep background on Steel Production.

Very interesting. :)

[DemReadingDU]

139. AK Steel in Middletown Ohio

12/4/08 AK Steel cutting salaries, offers buyouts

Facing lower demand for what it produces, AK Steel Corp. will cut the pay of its salaried work force by 5 percent, including the salaries of its CEO and executive officers.

The pay cut, which begins Jan. 1, is part of a series of cost-saving measures aimed at salaried workers of the West Chester, Ohio-based steel maker. AK Steel (NYSE:AKS) said it also will freeze the defined benefit plan for salaried workers, replacing it with a defined contribution retirement plan.

AK Steel employs about 1,500 salaried workers and more than 6,000 company-wide.

Also, a voluntary retirement incentive is being offered until Feb. 6, the company said, adding it would considering eliminating more jobs if too few employees take the buyouts.

“Unfortunately, this extraordinary global economic downturn requires significant and rapid measures to reduce our costs in light of sharply lower order levels from our customers,” CEO James Wainscott said in a release.

One of those measures came last month, when the company idled two mills and laid off hundreds of workers until early next year.

The company’s network of mills includes its Middletown Works and three smaller plants in Ohio. AK Steel employs about 1,500 at its Butler Works plant in Butler, Pa.
http://www.bizjournals.com/pittsburgh/stories/2008/12/01/daily38.html

-----------------------------------
Spouse is a retired union ironworker. Being a steel mill, the AK Steel was a gruesome place to work. But there was always work for the ironworkers to maintain the equipment, paid well too. Construction work generally had been good for the past couple decades, but that won't be the case when building slows down.

:(

[tclambert]

30. There's a lot of steel in cars.

I believe the car companies are still the #1 customer for steel. If the US automakers go under, that steel plant will never re-open.

[Dr.Phool]

17. Profitable Lincoln Electric cuts staff in anticipation of long recession

Profitable Lincoln Electric cuts staff in anticipation of long recession
Posted by Shaheen Samavati/Plain Dealer Reporter December 04, 2008 18:45PM
Categories: Breaking News, Manufacturing, Real Time News

Despite healthy profits this year, Lincoln Electric Holdings Inc. says it's cutting costs and staff in "anticipation of a long, deep recession."

Since October, the manufacturer of arc welding products has let go more than 50 third-party contractors and several Lincoln employees from its Northeast Ohio factories in Euclid and Mentor.

Gretchen Farrell, vice president of human resources, would not reveal the number of employees affected and said the reduction was not a layoff. The company employs more than 3,000 people in Northeast Ohio and 9,600 worldwide, she said.

Lincoln has long boasted its promise of job security for employees. Among the company's perks are year-end bonuses based on company profits and "guaranteed employment" after three years of service.

But Farrell said employment is guaranteed only if the employee meets certain performance expectations.

"We have a very high bar here," she said. "And we have had terminations throughout the history of the company."

Farrell said the majority of employees let go worked at Lincoln for less than three years, and held all types of positions, including production. The employees will still receive their year end bonuses, but no severance pay.

Some other workers' hours were cut or the employees were moved to different positions with less pay.

(snip) http://blog.cleveland.com/business/2008/12/profitable_lincoln_electric_cu.html

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Over the years, this place was considered so stable that people were almost willing to pay to get a job there.

Good paying jobs too.

[ozymandius]

8. Retail sales fall 2.7% in November -- and experts say it could have been worse

The frenzy of a much-hyped Black Friday failed to rescue retailers from a months-long slump, as November sales figures released Thursday showed yet another steep drop-off in consumer spending.

What was a disaster for retailers, however, could mean even more bargains for those consumers who have money to spend despite the recession. Many day-after-Thanksgiving-type sales haven't stopped, and experts say these promotions are sure to continue through the holiday season -- at a high cost for retailers.

....

According to a tally of 37 major retail chains conducted by the International Council of Shopping Centers, sales at stores open at least a year -- a measure of retail health known as same-store sales -- fell 2.7% in November over last year. Only a handful of retailers, including discount giant Wal-Mart Stores Inc., showed gains while most apparel and luxury stores tanked.

It was the worst month for retailers since at least 1969, when the index began. Excluding Wal-Mart, sales registered a huge 7.7% drop.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-retail5-2008dec05,1,7608997.story

[ozymandius]

12. U.S. Retail Sales Fall in Worst Drop in Four Decades (Update2)

Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Sales at U.S. retailers tumbled in November, the worst monthly decline in almost four decades, after the Wall Street meltdown caused consumers to postpone shopping until the holiday-sales kickoff on Black Friday.

J.C. Penney Co., Nordstrom Inc. and Gap Inc. all reported sales drops of 10 percent or more at stores open at least a year. The decreases were less than some analysts estimated after 50 percent-off discounts lured customers grappling with the U.S. recession. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. posted a 3.4 percent gain, beating its forecast.

Declines in consumer spending in October persisted into the first part of November before rebounding after the Thanksgiving Day holiday. Retailers may need to keep promoting half-off markdowns over the next three weeks to attract customers, even though such sales erode margins during a period when they make a third or more of their annual profit.

....

Sales were “abysmal” the first three weeks of November, according to Craig Johnson, president of Customer Growth Partners LLC, a retail consulting firm.

....

Higher-income consumers are reining in spending because of stock market declines, said Henry. Neiman Marcus Group Inc. sales fell 12 percent, while Saks had a 5.2 percent drop, better than the 20 percent fall estimated by analysts. Nordstrom Inc. sales retreated 16 percent.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=al0AAROtnroc&refer=home

[ozymandius]

11. AT&T, DuPont, Credit Suisse, Viacom among firms adding to layoff numbers

The job losses just keep mounting.

AT&T Inc., DuPont Co. and several other companies announced plans to lay off more than 20,000 people Thursday, buckling under the strain of a recession that some economists predict may have pushed the U.S. jobless rate to the highest level in 15 years.

More than 1 million Americans have lost their jobs this year and the Labor Department's report on the November unemployment rate, due Friday, may show it jumped to 6.8 percent, the highest since 1993, according to economists.

....

AT&T: The telecommunications giant, pressured by the economic turmoil and the mounting loss of traditional phone customers, is cutting 12,000 jobs, or about 4 percent of its workforce.

....

DuPont: The chemical manufacturer said it will cut 2,500 jobs, or roughly 4 percent of its workforce, and will not turn a profit in the fourth quarter as a severe slowdown in the automotive and construction markets eats away at chemical sales.

The firm also said it will release 4,000 contractors by the end of this year, with more contractor cuts expected in 2009, and will implement work schedule reductions and redeploy more than 400 employees on projects to reduce working capital and operating costs.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-fri-job-cuts-dec05,0,3582702.story

---

Credit Suisse sheds 5,300 jobs (11 percent of its global workforce)

Viacom cuts 850 jobs (7 percent of its workforce)

Steelcase Inc loses 600 jobs and closing an Atlanta plant

NBC Universal plans to cut 500 jobs.

[ozymandius]

14. What Did the Repeal of Glass-Steagall Do? (Ritholtz asks)

Here is a question that I have been wrestling with:

What exactly did the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act accomplish?

Were there positives as well as negatives?

Should the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act be repealed, and Glass-Steagall reinstated?

>

~~~

What say ye?

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/what-did-the-repeal-of-glass-steagall-do/#comments

---

The comments are worth the trip.

[ozymandius]

16. Josh Marshall makes good point.

-which is not unusual-

Parachute Won't Deploy

The best indicator of the severity of our economic crisis is the fact that there now appears to be a broad, party-transcending consensus in favor of levels of stimulus spending that would have been treated as preposterous only a couple months ago by all but the most left-leaning economists. But in this post this morning Paul Krugman suggests that we may not be able to spend the money quickly enough "to pull the economy out of its nosedive before unemployment goes into double digits."

The point here is that no matter how much money you're willing to spend, you need some level of planning and preparation before you can start hiring contractors and paying people to do anything.

Now, when it comes to unemployment, 'double-digits' covers quite a bit of territory. To provide some perspective, unemployment topped out at just over 10% in the 1982 recession and about 25% in the Great Depression. So I'd be curious to hear from Krugman and others which end of the spectrum we're talking about.

(ed.note: I'd add to this that Krugman's point is a good reminder of why it's nice to have some real economist as part of the conversation. I've been sort of disappointed to see the degree of emphasis on aid to states and local governments as opposed to major capital projects and green R&D in the initial round of spending. But as Krugman suggests and Atrios makes explicit, a lot of my concern in this regard is likely misguided when you take these realities into account ... Ed Kilgore expands on the point about spending by state and local governments.)

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/246799.php

[Pale Blue Dot]

22. Damn it, this is frustrating. They need to STOP SPENDING MONEY WE DON'T HAVE.

Even "left-leaning economists" are failing to realize that our massive debt is what got us into this mess, and going into more debt will only exacerbate the problem.

Sigh.

[Tansy_Gold]

44. I second that emotion

As I posted yesterday, if one considers the entire globe as a single economy, there is still cheap labor to exploit and still enough people with "money" to buy the products made by that cheap labor. But as always, allowing "capitalism" to rule means there will always -- MUST always -- be enormous wealth disparity. And as Russia and France in relatively modern times illustrate, too great a disparity leads to serious bloodshed.

Would some kind of protectionism for U.S. industries and markets resolve the crisis? Maybe temporarily, but long term, no. We can't put the toothpaste back in the tube.

If I were Queen of the Economy, I would institute some "protectionist" policies, in that I'd provide stimulus to restart U.S. manufacturing, but I'd also install some curbs on credit availability, raise taxes on unearned income (including on non-human, meaning corporate, earners and on inheritances), and remove personhood from corporations.

I do believe there are nonviolent solutions to the current crises, but all of them involve the invocation of marxist notions like redistribution of wealth and stripping the very very wealthy of much of their loot. After all, they didn't earn it; someone else did.

In the course of a part-time job several years ago with a security firm (no longer in busiess), I came across an insurance claim for a fire started in a vacant house owned by a very wealthy businessman. As always, for confidentiality purposes, I've changed a few of the details, but the essence of this account is accurate. And I'm sure many SMWers know of similar ones.

The house was a "vacation" home this guy had purchased solely for him and his immediate family to use for holiday gatherings. It was therefore occupied only three to four weeks a year. It was something like 5000 sq ft, seven bedrooms, eight baths, four car garage with separate "parking pavilion" (carport) for 8-10 additional vehicles. Pool. Media room/theater. The fire was determined to have probably been started by a homeless person or persons who had broken into the house and been camping out for an unknown period of time. The owner, whose main source of income/wealth was rent from several apartment complexes he owned in a large city in another part of the country, made the following comment to the insurance adjuster regarding the presence of "squatters" in the house: "You know, a lot of the properties in that neighborhood are vacant a good part of the year like mine. We have security but it's not a gated community or anything so people can come and go pretty freely. Yeah there's been quite a few instances of people breaking in and kind of setting up house. I don't know what gives them the idea they can just do that. I mean sometimes it's whole families. Can you imagine anyone having the nerve to just break in and start living there like that? You know I have tenants who get behind on their rent and I have to evict 'em sometimes and it's a hassle because they got the law on their side that let's 'em stay there rent free while I go through the process. It can take months sometimes. And they will tell you they got a right to live in a decent place and not get thrown on the street just 'cause they run into hard times. Well I suppose they do have a right to live somewhere but it sure ain't gonna be on my property."

In addition to the seven-figure income he made from his rental properties, he also received disability income, as did his wife; a military pension; and had received a five-figure settlement in a worker's comp case that had led directly to his "early" retirement on disability. In addition to the house that had been damaged in the fire, he had two others that he considered his "residences," and a small (1500 sq ft) cottage on a lake in a northern state where he took friends fishing on week-ends or for a week or so at a time in the summer.

He would probably be in that upper 2%, though certainly not in the upper .01% with the billions in "income." And he came from relatively humble beginnings. But he did not have a clue, and this was four or five years ago.

A couple in my acquaintance recently moved into their new home, a 7,000 square foot entity that they will occupy four months of the year. the rest of the time will be split between their other three "homes" around the country and the two or three cruises they take each year, usually two to three weeks at a time. Last year (2007) they bragged that they spent more time on cruse ships than in the house considered their legal residence.

Another couple in my acquaintance is trying to sell their vacation home here in AZ, which was purchased six years ago with cash inherited from the wife's never-married aunt. The advertised selling price is approximately 2.5 times the purchase price and approximately 2 times the current market value. In our glutted market it is attracting no interest whatsoever and the seller is angry and bitter and refusing to lower the price. "I'm not gonna take that kind of loss!" he announced to me this past summer. He has no clue that he could literally give it away and not have "lost" anything that he actually had to work for.

Frustrated? Yes. Bitter? Yes. Angry? Yes.

But somehow I remain also a little bit hopeful. And maybe I'm just angrily hopeful that we will get the crash we deserve and then eventually emerge on the other side a better nation and a better people.



Tansy Gold, most of whose friends are a lot better off financially than she is, but she considers herself richer in many other ways

[Hugin]

51. It would seem TPTB think they are talking about different people when they speak of...

Consumers, workers, and taxpayers... When in reality, this is a pool of the same people who are being squeezed on
all sides.

It's never sunk in to the greedy minds of TPTB that most everything on Earth is a ZERO SUM GAME. It's FINITE and
where there's vast excess in one place there's vast need in another. That's what finite means!

They just don't get it... Until it hits them, individually and that's how they will go down... Individually. Alone.

:ack: Well, I guess it's my turn to recite "A Christmas Carol" today.


Edit: Oh, and Voters... They think Voters are different people from the first three, but, they are the same people.

[tclambert]

59. Good stories, Tansy.

As far as revolution, I'm conflicted. Putting the old guard up against the wall and firing away until the barrel of your machine gun overheats is always good fun. It's the reign of terror afterward I have trouble with. Even after the American Revolution there was a rough time under the Articles of Confederation. And there was the Whiskey Rebellion. It took a while to settle down.

And it's only a revolution if it works. If it fails, historians will call it a rebellion. I don't have the stats, but I think failed rebellions seriously outnumber revolutions.

[Tansy_Gold]

71. I'm with you on that, tc

Both the French and Russian revolutions ended badly. I'm not sure about ours yet. ;-)


Kevin Phillips' "The Cousins' Wars" really gives a good big picture history of the American experiment, especially the grounding in conservative protestant christianity. The English Civil War of the 1640s, the Restoration of 1688, the American Revolution of 1776, and the American Civil war of 1860 were all just engagements on a continuing string of economic and philosophical and religious confrontation. It ain't over yet.



Tansy Gold

[ozymandius]

19. Senators grill auto CEOs, GM-Chrysler deal eyed

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The chief executives of General Motors Corp and Chrysler LLC said they would consider restarting merger talks if needed to win their slice of up to $34 billion in emergency U.S. government aid.

"I would be very willing to look at it seriously," GM CEO Rick Wagoner told the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday, adding that merger talks earlier this year were dropped on concerns GM did not have the financing to merge with Chrysler.

Chrysler CEO Robert Nardelli said his job would likely be the first to go in a merger with GM, but if that would save Chrysler and its workers "I would do it."

....

But they encountered deep skepticism among lawmakers who are suspicious of such promises, given the companies' past failures to ween themselves from gasoline guzzlers and to make innovative cars that consumers want to buy.

....

Underscoring the difficulty of getting an aid measure quickly through Congress, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd and House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank sent a letter to Bush on Thursday urging him to use the $700 billion bank bailout program to help Detroit.

http://www.reuters.com/article/wtMostRead/idUSTRE4B10C620081205

[Festivito]

20. Debt: 12/03/2008 10,675,932,885,390.20 (DOWN 9,233,725,885.00) (-162% of report-avg)

(Mostly FICA again. All down. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,434,552,796,939.87 + 4,241,380,088,450.35
DOWN 525,799,120.43 + DOWN 8,707,926,764.55
(NOTE: Excel 2007 cannot handle ten-trillion plus to the penny. It zeroes the penny.)

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.33 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN BUCKS in a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is a federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)
(I hate those end to end dollars to the moon and back, or years to spend $100/second. Just say'n)
If you read this and have a suggestion or comment, good or bad, I'd love to see it.

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 5,702,625,587.86.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,991,837,911.50.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 43 reports in 64 days of FY2009 averaging 15.14B$ per report, 10.18B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 48 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.7 and 11.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
12/03/2008 10,675,932,885,390.20 GWB (UP 4,947,737,089,208.63 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 651,207,988,477.80 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
11/12/2008 +000,116,562,137.90 ------------********
11/13/2008 -037,830,308,231.82 -
11/14/2008 +039,714,906,312.49 ------------**********
11/17/2008 -001,168,758,314.18 -- Mon
11/18/2008 +035,027,406,490.17 ------------**********
11/19/2008 -000,433,628,717.22 ---
11/20/2008 -000,189,695,810.14 ---
11/21/2008 -000,151,096,322.01 ---
11/24/2008 -000,086,920,504.20 ---- Mon
11/25/2008 +001,468,316,558.23 ------------*********
11/26/2008 +000,650,427,812.76 ------------********
11/28/2008 +000,783,239,406.89 ------------********
12/01/2008 +038,288,359,563.07 ------------********** Mon
12/02/2008 +000,199,375,927.74 ------------********
12/03/2008 -000,525,799,120.43 ---

75,862,387,189.25 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,011,301,082,131.13 in last 76 days.
That's 1,011B$ in 76 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 99% of that highest year ever only in 76 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 76 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3630175&mesg_id=3630246

[RetailSlave]

25. "Best to keep our own history"

especially in light of the article out of the Illini this morning about the changes in documents on the White House web site. Our own records may be the only accurate ones! Thanks Festivito, for doing this every day; I for one am very grateful.

[Hugin]

26. Great observation!

Yep, plenty of fiction out there these days.

Welcome to DU and the SMW RetailSlave! :)

[tclambert]

37. Welcome to DU!

Am I allowed to say that, being a newbie myself? I figure I'll stop being a newbie when I reach 1000+ posts. This thread is all about the numbers. It reminds me of baseball.

[Hugin]

41. Sure!

A friendly Hello and Goodbye are never wasted. :)

[tclambert]

36. I second retailslave's thanks.

I went over to brillig and watched for a few million dollars. (Not very long.)

And of course I like your "Thinking in Billions." (Thanks for the compliment the other day.) It does help to put these ungraspable numbers into personal terms. Whenever someone tries the "it would make a stack of money that would reach past the Moon," or "that many dollars could wrap around the Earth this many times," I always think of Ghostbusters when Egon says, "Well, let's say this Twinkie represents the normal amount of psychokinetic energy in the New York area. Based on this morning's reading, it would be a Twinkie thirty-five feet long, weighing approximately six hundred pounds."

So here's what my arithmetic says today: A $10 trillion dollar national debt means a Mama bear, Papa bear, and Baby bear family of three would owe $100,000. Mother pus bucket. (That's also from Ghostbusters.) That is A LOT of porridge. Dammit. 46 more days.

This is a very educational thread, but sometimes very depressing.

[tclambert]

38. By the way,

a Twinkie 35 feet long would weigh far more than 600 pounds. EGOOOOON!

[Hugin]

43. Nice analogy.

Good movie reference, too.

:lol:

[Festivito]

61. Think that family has a $150,000 house with $100K mortgage?

Net worth: NEGATIVE $50,0000.

Except their house just went down in value to $100K.

Net worth: NEGATIVE $100,000.

In my area, $100,000 homes sell for $20,000 now, if you can get that. Ugly houses.com now says THEY WON'T EVEN MAKE AN OFFER IN MY AREA ANYMORE.

Value of American family of three: House: $50,000 if lucky. Debt: $150,000. Government debt: $100,000.

Net worth: NEGATIVE $200,000 living in a $150,000 house now worth $50,000 before closing costs and incentives to buy it.

That's what they have to show for their hard work and $50,000 down payment.

Glad I have no family at this moment.

Of course, I'm so depressing, I can understand why I have no family at this moment.

[UpInArms]

63. ...

Festivito, we are your family

:grouphug:

and if you were ecstatic, we would worry

:hug:

[Hugin]

66. This is why my going...

quietly insane is a mixed blessing. :crazy:

"Everyday is a holiday to a mad-man."


However, it has not impeded my sense of sympathy.

:grouphug:

[Festivito]

79. LOL. Sweet. Gotta get back to work. Am actually lucky :-) /nt

[Festivito]

125. Debt: 12/04/2008 10,653,883,024,152.80 (DOWN 22,049,861,237.40) (-528% of report-avg)

(This time the FICA hardly moves, it rises a small amount. The public debt comes down, not as much as it went up on Monday, but down just the same. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,411,650,143,809.01 + 4,242,232,880,343.86
DOWN 22,902,653,130.86 + UP 852,791,893.51
(NOTE: Excel 2007 cannot handle ten-trillion plus to the penny. It zeroes the penny.)

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.33 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN BUCKS in a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is a federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)
(I hate those end to end dollars to the moon and back, or years to spend $100/second. Just say'n)
If you read this and have a suggestion or comment, good or bad, I'd love to see it.

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 4,177,944,174.40.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,924,560,922.08.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 44 reports in 65 days of FY2009 averaging 14.30B$ per report, 9.68B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 47 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.7 and 11.1T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
12/04/2008 10,653,883,024,152.80 GWB (UP 4,925,687,227,971.23 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 629,158,127,240.40 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
11/13/2008 -037,830,308,231.82 -
11/14/2008 +039,714,906,312.49 ------------**********
11/17/2008 -001,168,758,314.18 -- Mon
11/18/2008 +035,027,406,490.17 ------------**********
11/19/2008 -000,433,628,717.22 ---
11/20/2008 -000,189,695,810.14 ---
11/21/2008 -000,151,096,322.01 ---
11/24/2008 -000,086,920,504.20 ---- Mon
11/25/2008 +001,468,316,558.23 ------------*********
11/26/2008 +000,650,427,812.76 ------------********
11/28/2008 +000,783,239,406.89 ------------********
12/01/2008 +038,288,359,563.07 ------------********** Mon
12/02/2008 +000,199,375,927.74 ------------********
12/03/2008 -000,525,799,120.43 ---
12/04/2008 -022,902,653,130.86 -

52,843,171,920.49 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $989,251,220,893.73 in last 77 days.
That's 989B$ in 77 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 97% of that highest year ever only in 77 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 77 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3631981&mesg_id=3632041

[Festivito]

142. Placeholding, /nt

[UpInArms]

31. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 87.054 Change +0.449 (+0.58%)

US Dollar: Non-Farm Payrolls(NFPs) May Fall by the Most Since 1982

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/US_Dollar__Non_Farm_Payrolls_NFPs__May_1228425764568.html



Looking at the stats of what the 70 economists polled by Bloomberg News had to say, the range is very wide with the most pessimistic forecast at -470k and the most optimistic forecast at -220k. However, this is the first time ever that non-farm payrolls (NFPs) are anticipated to fall by more than 300k. If NFPs fall in line with expectations, they will surpass the 2001 low of -325k and could even beat out the 1982 low of -343k. Furthermore, the unemployment rate is anticipated to rise to 6.8 percent from 6.5 percent, the highest since 1993. What are the realistic odds that this could happen?

Arguments for Weaker Non-Farm Payrolls

1. Jobless Claims 4-Week Moving Average Continues to Climb Above Highest Levels Since At Least 2002
2. Continuing Claims Rise to the Most Since 1982
3. ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment Component Falls to Lowest on Record Going Back to 1997
4. ISM Manufacturing Employment Index Dives to Lowest Since 1991
5. Challenger Job Cuts Rise 148% to a 6-Year High
6. ADP Employment Change Falls By the Most Since November 2001
7. Despite Small Gain in November, Consumer Confidence Remains Near Record Low

Just by glancing at the list above, it is rather obvious that the odds are stacked in favor of a disappointing NFP release on Friday. Indeed, nearly every single leading indicator for US employment that we follow suggests that November was a month of heavy job losses, as the number of continuing jobless claims remains near the highest levels since late 1982-early 1983 at 3962K in the week ending November 22. Likewise, the employment components of both ISM Manufacturing and ISM Non-Manufacturing (services sector) plummeted to the worst levels since the 1990’s. Meanwhile, you may be wondering why we put consumer confidence into the list of arguments for weaker NFPs. Though the Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey rose during the month of November to 44.9 from 38.8, the index still reflects some of the worst levels on record going back to 1967.


...more...

Euro Weakens As German Factory Orders Fall Record Amount, Non-farm Payrolls Ahead

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Euro_Weakens_As_German_Factory_1228476044905.html

The Euro weakened on the German factory orders reports which showed demand declined the most since records began in 1992 on an annualized basis. The 17.3% decline year-over-year was sharp reduction from the 3.0% decline the month prior and far worse than the 12.1% that was predicted. October saw a 6.1% reduction in activity which followed the prior month’s 8.3% drop, and was significantly lower than the 0.5% the economist were expecting. A 7.1% decline in domestic demand for intermediate goods and a 11.2% drop in Euro-zone capital goods demand signal that the regional economy may be headed for a prolonged recession. The dour fundamental data was the only release on a relatively quiet night of trading which saw the Euro consolidate yesterday’s gains before forex traders stating selling the single currency ahead of the report. The EUR/USD would ultimately fall to 1.2710 before finding support.

Yesterday, markets applauded the bigger than expected rate reduction from the ECB and the Euro benefitted rising over 200 bps. Despite stating that the downside risks to the economy have accelerated and price pressures have abated, President Trichet was reluctant to give any indication that more easing was ahead. Yet, despite the 75 bps reduction Credit Suisse overnight index swaps are still calling for another 135 bps of cuts over the next twelve months from the central bank, which could be a weighing factor for the Euro. However, with the benchmark rate at 2.50% we don’t expect the central bank to use up all of its bullets in the near-term, as they are more likely to save their ammunition in case the downturn deepens. This could lend some short-term support for the Euro before we see another move to the downside.

After the BoE cut its benchmark rate to 2.00%-the lowest since 1951- the Pound found support as many were expecting a deeper reduction. The third cut since October may mean that with the overnight rate at 2.00% the central bank doesn’t have many moves left and may decide to slow their easing over the near-term to asses the impact of their actions. However, the U.K. economy continues to show further proof that it is headed for a prolonged recession which may be spelled out in next week’s NIESR GDP estimate. If the reading indicates a significant drop in growth we may see further selling of the Sterling as the possibility if a ZIRP increases. The cable has started to sell off against the dollar as risk aversion has crept into the equity markets ahead of the U.S. employment data. However, the weakness may be short lived as the prospect of the central bank ending their aggressive monetary policy could add support to the Pound. Indeed, the markets are now only pricing in another 43 bps of cuts over the next twelve months.

The Yen continued to strengthen during the overnight as the outlook for the global economy continues to dim. Aggressive rate cuts by the European central banks only underlined growth concerns which sent the USD/JPY to as low as 92.00 before finding support. A break of this support level could lead to a test of psychological support at 90.0o, which could happen today with the U.S. employment report on tap.

The U.S. Non-Farm payroll report will present major event risk for the U.S. dollar today as the economy is expected to have given back another 333,000 jobs. That would be the largest decline since 1982 and bringing the total losses for the year to over 1.5 million. Additionally, the unemployment rate is forecasted top rise to 6.8% from 6.5%, which would be the highest since 1993. Another month of job losses would, ark the 12th consecutive month of declines which could decrease expectations for domestic growth and spur safe haven flows that may lead to bullish dollar price action. However, the fact that employment data is a lagging indicator for the economy as companies are reluctant to let workers go until circumstances become dire, traders may begin to bet that the downturn is bottoming. The increased risk appetite could weigh on the dollar continuing recent bearish sentiment.

...more...

[UpInArms]

45. Sonoco to lay off about 700 workers, close 15 plants

05. Sonoco to lay off about 700 workers, close 15 plants
8:35 AM ET, Dec 05, 2008

06. Sonoco cuts 2008 profit outlook to $2.23 to $2.27 a share
8:34 AM ET, Dec 05, 2008

08. Sonoco cuts Q4 profit outlook to 48c to 52c a share
8:33 AM ET, Dec 05, 2008

[UpInArms]

50. 'Ere's Your Humor for Today:

01. Treasury: Bailout working, financial system didn't collapse
9:12 AM ET, Dec 05, 2008

02. Kashkari: System more stable than when bailout fund passed
9:12 AM ET, Dec 05, 2008

Cash-n-carry says it's all good!

[Hugin]

57. To continue my "The Earth is a Zero Sum Game" rant from above, it's tragic that 'willful ignorance'

is -not- one of the resources that is finite.

Stupidity is an infinite resource. Too bad we can't tap it and use it for power.

Edit: Smoothed it out, man.

[tclambert]

67. Space, the Final Frontier, is the way out of that "Earth is a Zero Sum Game" problem.

Human ingenuity should counter stupidity. Recently, like say, the last 8 years, stupidity seems to have had the upper hand. OK, the last 45 years. There was a time, "for one brief shining moment," when we made real progress, when we looked to the future with confidence, not dread. When expanding America's reach into space wasn't fantasy, it was destiny.

I miss Kennedy. Does it show?

[Hugin]

69. I've been waxing nostalgic for those days too...

So much potential.

I try to keep up my optimism about it, but, it's difficult in the face of the squandering of our future to maintain
the illusion that a failed ideology was a success and to comfort the sense of divine entitlement felt by those few
who have benefited from the windfall of the ideology's faults.

To sum it up... I need to stop Googling Space History sites.

[MilesColtrane]

78. Sure, the hope and confidence engendered by the space race was built...

...upon the idea that we were doing it "for all mankind". Unfortunately once it was clear that the Soviets had been beaten soundly, and that their priorities were elsewhere, the U.S. began defunding and scaling back.

We all bought into the lofty ideals, and they were a partial driving force, but fear of a moon base with "USSR" painted on it's side turned out to be the real reason for the great leaps forward in our space program.


I'm also available for children's parties.

:hi:

[Hugin]

81. You forgot to plug the Veal.

It's very good. :lol:

[MilesColtrane]

83. I'm just spreading sunshine and little rainbows like usual.

[Hugin]

85. In conclusion, I'd like to suggest the only time it's appropriate to say...

"Thank God it passed!" in mixed company is when one is talking about Kidney Stones or Extinction Event sized Asteroids.

Thus I conclude, Today's symposium on "The Way Things Aughta Be".

[UpInArms]

52. Swiss banker commits suicide

hattip to formercia and this DU thread

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3632108

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/081205/business_us_juliusbaer.html

ZURICH (Reuters) - Alex Widmer, the chief executive of Bank Julius Baer (VTX:BAER.VX - News) and a well respected figure in Swiss private banking, has died unexpectedly at the age of 52, the bank said.

A source told Reuters he had been informed by close friends of Widmer's family that the banker had committed suicide.

Swiss news website 20Minuten cited two unnamed independent sources as saying it was a case of suicide.

Swiss police declined to comment on the death.

Julius Baer, Switzerland's biggest dedicated wealth manager which has roots dating back to the 19th century, is based in Zurich and manages more than 360 billion Swiss francs ($300.8 billion) in assets for rich individuals and institutions.

A spokesman said there was no link between Widmer's death and the group's current activities, but declined to give further details on the cause of Widmer's death overnight on Wednesday, saying it was a private matter.

<snip>

"Alex Widmer was the very epitome of a Swiss private banker," Julius Baer said in a statement.

...more...

[Demeter]

134. So Much for Switzerland and Their Banking Privacy

[UpInArms]

54. The liquidity trap - Commentary: Financial engineering seems worse than the alternative

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/The-liquidity-trap/story.aspx?guid=%7BF9D12BF3%2DECA9%2D46C2%2DA315%2DDCF1A8A9566F%7D

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- This year one of the best performing asset classes is cash.

People used to boast about hot stocks they owned. Now they crow about how much of their money is in cash. Those holding cash have been richly rewarded with no losses and opportunities to buy assets (condos and equities) at huge discounts.

As prices continue to decline, those that moved too quickly to buy at the bottom are seen as fools. Consider the massive losses of the sovereign wealth funds, Bank of America (BAC: 14.34, -0.71, -4.7%) and Countrywide, and even Warren Buffett's latest foray into General Electric (GE: 17.55, -0.58, -3.2%) and Goldman Sachs (GS: 67.53, -1.42, -2.1%) . Investors, convinced that prices will continue to decline, sit with their liquid resources on the sidelines. As that investment demand takes a holiday, prices will decline further.

This phenomenon is well understood. In the 1930s, it was called the liquidity trap. People took their money out of the bank and literally buried in the backyard or stuck it under a mattress. When that happened, the money supply contracted another notch and the lack of transactions cut into the velocity of money.

As the supply of money and bank reserves dried up, credit availability declined and asset prices fell yet again. Today, because of FDIC insurance it is not the households that lack trust in the banking system but, rather, the bankers themselves.

...more...

[Hugin]

73. This reminds me of a family story...

My parents had bought an older house and in the process of cleaning out the backyard to put in the foundations
of a new garage my Dad found a buried 20 gallon drum. Turned out to be empty, but, it looked like it was some previous
owner's cache.

The age of the barrel looked to be about right to have been a "liquidity trap".

[UpInArms]

60. 9:34 EST opening with a superficial scratch

Dow 8,306.15 70.09 (0.84%)
Nasdaq 1,433.46 12.10 (0.84%)
S&P 500 836.95 8.27 (0.98%)
10-Yr Bond 2.581% 0.011

NYSE Volume 157,271,093.75
Nasdaq Volume 56,968,574.219

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -13.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -12.80. Stock futures have pulled up from their morning lows, but continue to suggest a lower start to trading. Prices of oil futures are also on the slide. The downward move in stock futures and oil futures comes in the wake of an abysmal November jobs report, which has underscored the tenuous state of the U.S. economy. Oil futures are currently trading 3% lower at $42.35 per barrel. Oil futures already hit a near four-year low in the prior session.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -18.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -21.00. Stock futures continue to suggest the stock market will open with a loss. Pessimism has been underpinned by the latest jobless data. November nonfarm payrolls fell 533,000, which was a steeper decline than the drop of 335,000 that was widely expected. October nonfarm payrolls were revised lower to reflect a drop of 320,000. November manufacturing payrolls declined 85,000, coming short of the 100,000 decline that was widely expected. October manufacturing payroll declines were revised lower to reflect a drop of 104,000. The November unemployment rate now stands at 6.7%. Economists expected the unemployment rate to come in at 6.8%. The unemployment rate for October stands at 6.5%.

[UpInArms]

64. TREASURIES-Bonds fall with lack of buyers at 50-yr yield lows

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0533391320081205

* Traders reluctant to buy with yields at 50-year lows

* Contraction in Nov payrolls much bigger than forecast

* Analysts say investors were already long Treasuries

* For the latest market news, please click on FINEWS (Adds strategists quotes, updates prices, adds byline)

By Chris Reese

NEW YORK, Dec 5 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries fell on Friday despite a bigger-than-expected contraction in non-farm payrolls last month, as investors were reluctant to buy government debt with yields at the lowest in more than 50 years.

Trade was choppy following the payrolls data, which showed 533,000 jobs were lost in November, the steepest monthly fall since December 1974. The unemployment rate rose to 6.7 percent in November from 6.5 percent in October.

"We're already at (yield) levels we've never seen before. It's just difficult to continue buying Treasuries at these prices," said Kim Rupert, managing director of global fixed-income analysis at Action Economics in San Francisco.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes <US10YT=RR> were trading 9/32 lower in price for a yield of 2.59 percent from 2.56 percent late on Thursday.

Benchmark yields, which move inversely to prices, shot to as low as 2.51 percent immediately after the release of the data on Friday, marking the lowest in more than five decades.

...more...

[Hugin]

75. ~10:40 ET: Down.

Dow 8,164.62 -211.62 (-2.53%)
S&P 500 824.06 -21.16 (-2.50%)
Nasdaq 1,410.64 -34.92 (-2.42%)
10y bond 2.57% -0.03 (-1.15%)

And now for a 'C' update...

It's been flat-lined all morning. Looks to be time for yet another trip to the defibrillator. ( That's :sarcasm: folks)


Name Price Change MktCap
C 7.40 0.00 (0.00%) 40.33B

[CatholicEdHead]

77. The PPT may fulfill your request anyways

:sarcasm: or not :(

[Wednesdays]

80. Looks like by the end of the day we may have a Dow below 8000,

NASDAQ below 1400, and S&P below 800. Quite a bunch of bad milestones.

[CatholicEdHead]

86. Bouncing back a little bit now, but it all comes down to the last hour

[Roland99]

84. 12:15pm - Down but not out

DJIA 8,244.11 -132.13 -1.58%
Nasdaq 1,430.11 -15.45 -1.07%
S&P 500 832.25 -12.97 -1.53%
Global Dow 1,360.48 -35.49 -2.54%
Dow Util 341.89 -11.11 -3.15%
NYSE 5,147.40 -84.86 -1.62%
AMEX 1,230.41 -10.87 -0.88%
Russell 2000 436.40 -3.13 -0.71%
Semcond 182.34 -4.30 -2.30%
Gold future 743.30 -22.20 -2.90%
Oil $41.58 -2.09
10-Year Bond 2.58% +0.01 +0.23%
30-Year Bond 3.04% -0.04 -1.39%

[UpInArms]

88. 12:39 EST - took a dive when the freak opened its hole

Dow 8,215.67 160.57 (1.92%)
Nasdaq 1,425.26 20.30 (1.40%)
S&P 500 829.38 15.84 (1.87%)
10-Yr Bond 2.591% 0.021

NYSE Volume 2,815,747,500
Nasdaq Volume 846,320,437.5

12:30 pm : The stock market has managed to pull off its session low in choppy fashion. Losses still remain rather deep and broad based, however.

At its session low, the S&P 500 traded with a loss of 3.2%. The Dow was down 3.1% at its session low, while the Nasdaq traded with a loss of 2.8% at its session low.

Nine of the 10 economic sectors are trading with losses. Seven of the 10 are trading with losses in excess of 1.0%.

Only the financial sector is trading with a gain, currently near its session high, up 2.5%. Of the 18 different industry groups listed within the S&P 500's financial sector, 16 are trading with gains. Only specialty REITs (-0.6%) and consumer finance (-0.8%) are showing losses.DJ30 -111.50 NASDAQ -12.43 SP500 -10.19 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1523/1030/822 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2074/924/536 mln

[UpInArms]

87. Freakin' Piehole is spewing garbage again

02. Bush confident economy will return to strength
11:34 AM ET, Dec 05, 2008

03. Bush: Automakers should get money from energy funds
11:34 AM ET, Dec 05, 2008

04. Bush: Concerned about people who've lost jobs
11:32 AM ET, Dec 05, 2008

05. Bush: Taking actions to prevent foreclosures
11:32 AM ET, Dec 05, 2008

06. Bush: Concerned about viability of automakers
11:32 AM ET, Dec 05, 2008

07. Bush: Most urgent issue is fixing credit markets
11:31 AM ET, Dec 05, 2008

[Dr.Phool]

89. WIN! Whip Inflation Now!

Back in 1974, the last time we had this many job losses, all it took to get us back on track was a snappy little slogan. Back then it was Whip Inflation Now!

Any ideas for a new slogan that will save us from the Perils of Paulson?

My first thought is "Jesus Saves. So can You!" But, I've been eating percocets like candy for 2 days now, so I have an excuse.

[Hugin]

90. I've always been fond of...

"Eat the Rich", but, it only appeals to a niche group.

[UpInArms]

91. yummm! tastes just like chicken!

:eyes:

[Dr.Phool]

93. Just like the sign on my front door.

"Dog likes Strangers. Says they taste like chicken"

Morons and Jehovahs Waitresses invited.

[Hugin]

95. Probably not a good idea then?

The Doctor says I need to cut down on my fat intake and watch the cholesterol.

(True story)

During the worst of Stalin's Famines, Moscow sent out an agent to find out about a "Food Substitute" the
peasants were eating. It consisted of mainly bark and dirt. It's always fascinated me that Stalin was such
a control freak he wanted to institutionalize starvation by controlling "Food Substitute".

[snot]

140. Shd be a big niche by now.

[MilesColtrane]

97. WADDS

We'll All Destroy Deflation Soon!

[MilesColtrane]

98. WOMB

Waiting On My Bailout!

[MilesColtrane]

99. FLAB

To wear to the Inauguration for Obama to see:

Fix Living After Bush

[Hugin]

100. That one's not bad.

FORE

F**ked Over Rebuilt Economy

[Dr.Phool]

106. I think Demeter wins the grand prize for this one.

She coined the phrase months ago.

FRSP

French Revolution Severance Packages.

That would improve things enormously in my opinion.

[Tansy_Gold]

122. Bail-out or bust?

I'll leave it to the rest of you to figure it out.

:hi:



Tansy Gold, who is NOT sexist

[Dr.Phool]

92. GM cuts another 1,000 jobs at Lordstown (OH).

And the market rallies. Only down 100 now.

http://www.cleveland.com/news/index.ssf/2008/12/gm_cuts_more_jobs_in_lordstown.html

General Motors Corp. plans to cut its newly added third shift in its Lordstown plant, laying off about 1,000 workers. The cuts come on top of work reductions that temporarily cost 1,000 employees their jobs in November.

By the end of February, the work force in Lordstown will be about half of what it was this summer. When the company added the third shift earlier this year, demand for the Chevrolet Cobalt and Pontiac G5 cars produced there was well above what the plant could supply. With gas prices hovering around $4 per gallon, consumers clamored for the Cobalt which can get as many as 37 miles per gallon.

But the credit crunch decimated the vehicle's sales in the past few months. Last month, Cobalt sales plunged 53 percent.

"We've taken the tough decision to remove the third shift in its entirety," GM spokesman Chris Lee said. When it announced cuts last month, GM slowed the output on all three shifts.

[Hugin]

101. ~14:00 ET: Almost all better now...

On top of the worst employment news in a generation.

Dow 8,352.83 -23.41 (-0.28%)
S&P 500 846.71 +1.49 (0.18%)
Nasdaq 1,465.67 +20.11 (1.39%)
10y bond 2.59% 0.00 (0.00%)

[Dr.Phool]

103. Ridiculous.

Now up 178! Fortunes are being made while I take a nap. Must be because O.J. Got sentenced.

[BelgianMadCow]

104. Worst employment news? Hahahaha didn't you hear? That's just wonderful synergy news!

Too big corporations getting even bigger, eating up bailout money and then can do all the drastic cuts they wouldn't get away with normally.

Sorry, I keep seeing the Shock Doctrine.

[Dr.Phool]

107. I think you're right.

But, I think they have the voltage set a little too high. We're getting fried.

[BelgianMadCow]

136. But the voltage has to be a little too high,

that gives the shock. I would like to think the biggest theft in history would not get by so easily otherwise.

[Dr.Phool]

105. It's even worse here. Underemployment at 12.5%. NYT via TPM

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/246983.php

Worse Than It Looks
12.05.08 -- 2:52PM
By David Kurtz

Kevin Philips has written persuasively about how the official unemployment rate understates the actual jobless numbers, and you get a glimpse of that in some of the employment numbers that came out today. From the NYT:

A mass departure from the labor force helped to hold down the unemployment rate in November, which was up only two-tenths of a percentage point from October's 6.5 percent. The so-called underemployment rate, however, jumped to 12.5 percent, from 8 percent in October. Most of the underemployed are people working part time who want to work full time but cannot.

The 12.5 percent is the highest level of underemployment since the statistic was first compiled in 1994.


More than 420,000 men and women who had been working or seeking work in October left the labor force in November. Most presumably gave up looking for a job, the bureau's report suggests. If they had continued that search, the unemployment rate in November would have been closer to 7 percent.


http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/06/business/economy/06jobs.html

(snip)

The report on Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics included sharp upward revisions in job-loss figures for October (to 320,000, from the previously reported 240,000) and for September (to 403,000, from 284,000).

A mass departure from the labor force helped to hold down the unemployment rate in November, which was up only two-tenths of a percentage point from October’s 6.5 percent. The so-called underemployment rate, however, jumped to 12.5 percent, from 8 percent in October. Most of the underemployed are people working part time who want to work full time but cannot.

The 12.5 percent is the highest level of underemployment since the statistic was first compiled in 1994.

More than 420,000 men and women who had been working or seeking work in October left the labor force in November. Most presumably gave up looking for a job, the bureau’s report suggests. If they had continued that search, the unemployment rate in November would have been closer to 7 percent.

In addition, 70 percent of the job loss was in the service sector, particularly in retailing, temporary work and hotel and restaurant employment. Indeed, the only sectors adding jobs in November were health care and education.

“The service sector had been holding up relatively well into this downturn, but now the service sector is just imploding,” said Michael T. Darda, chief economist at the research firm MKM Partners. “As goes the service sector, so goes the U.S. economy."

(snip) more

[Tansy_Gold]

123. Kevin Phillips ROCKS n/t

.

[hatrack]

129. Well golly-gee. After eight years of Bush, the NYT discovers U6.

Shocking.

:eyes:

[saigon68]

108. Lets smoke some crack ------CELEBRATE

Dow 8,630.64 +254.40 +3.04%

Nasdaq 1,488.35 +42.79 +2.96%

S&P 500 867.78 +22.56 +2.67%

10 Yr Bond(%) 2.65% +0.08


market up 250 points

good thing there is no bad news

</Sarcasm>

[CatholicEdHead]

110. All the bad news and we make up most of the losses from yesterday

:crazy:

[UpInArms]

124. don't bogart - pass it along to me

:crazy:

(edited cuz ah kant spull)

[specimenfred1984]

109. Bad for America, good for stocks: Welcome to Fascist America

Fuck jobs, industrial production, benefits, retirement, investments: I NEED A PRIVATE JET and a GOLDEN PARACHUTE!

[Lasher]

111. Stock market gains despite overall bad economic news.

It might be an indication that the depth of the equity downturn has been plumbed.

[TheWatcher]

112. Everyone Should Remember What You Have Seen Today, And Develop An Understanding For What It Means.

TPTB and Wall Street Have Sent You A Clear Message Today.

EAT CAKE.

It's that simple.

You know, I have to admit, this is beyond even what I thought they would ever do. I don't think anyone thought they would run up the Market on news like this and expect everyone to buy it.

THIS my dear Marketeers, is INSANITY.

I think even those who continue to call us conspiracy theorists and doom fetishists are going to have a difficult time explaining away this breathtaking example of delusion and blatant fascistic nonsense.

The Market Rallies nearly 300 Points, after falling nearly 300.

That is not the important point.

The important part is what it rallied on.

Possibly the worst economic news in 35 years.

533,000 jobs lost. Not to mention the INCREDIBLE Revisions of the fake numbers from the previous 2 months. We can't even rely on the numbers that were reported, because by now, even a grasshopper could figure out the numbers are fake, massaged, rigged, and constantly cooked and spun.

As bad as things are, think how bad they REALLY are.

The Retail Sales were ABYSMAL.

GM Lays Off 2000 more Workers.

Consumers didn't do as they were told, and didn't mindlessly borrow as much in October.

And yet Wall Street continues to party unabated.

Here is the Official BS, if you can stomach it.

AP
Stocks turn higher, shake off dismal jobs report
Friday December 5, 3:16 pm ET
By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer
Stocks turn higher as investors absorb weak jobs report; investors ponder more government help

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street's initial dejection over a bleak employment report dissipated Friday as the Labor Department's data raised investor hopes for further government measures to prop up the economy. Stocks turned sharply higher after showing steep losses in the first half of the session.

ADVERTISEMENT
The Dow Jones industrial average, which had been down 258 points, rose more than 100 points by late afternoon. Broader indexes rose more than 1.5 percent.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081205/wall_street.html

Read the whole thing.

It's quite entertaining.

And yes, I will answer that question for you.

They DO Think You are THAT Stupid.

I won't even bother with all the tired mantras I am hearing on Bubblevision and all over the news today. It's too disgusting to talk about. There is just something fundamentally wrong with these people telling us that now that the news has gotten as bad as it can get, everything will be fine.

I guess it's believable if you have the collective IQ and perception of a hatpin.

However, I think most of us if we didn't know better would think they were mocking us.

We are a society and a culture living in complete delusion and utter insanity.

There is so much more I want to say today, with analysis and thoughts, but I just can't bring myself to do it. Why waste time? This is what it is. Those who can see and get it, would be getting just another sermon to the choir, and those who can't, or won't, are just going to dismiss anything they are told and go search for some sound byte or written word that makes them feel good and reinforces their false paradigm. And for those who cheer this on thinking it's good, all I can say to you is something very, very simple. Study History.

No matter which side of the fence you fall on though, the reality is the same. We are on our own. And we have to learn how to adapt and survive the environment that has been created.

Yes, people can continue to call us conspiracy theorists and doom fetishists, and continue to cling to the false paradigms that make them feel good, and lap up all the cathode distraction to keep them from facing the reality of the circumstances we are in as a country all they want.

Have at it. We're used to it.

But DON'T sit there and tell me this is "Normal, Natural Market Activity."

It has about as much basis in reality as me pissing on someones head and telling them it is raining.

This Market moves as naturally as a Marionette.

There is clearly no such thing as Investing anymore.

There is only this insane shell game.

Welcome to Rome 2.0.

Are You Not Entertained?

[Tansy_Gold]

114. Rome 2.0; Versailles 2.1; Can Yekaterinburg 2.12 be very far behind?

Scary. Very scary.

[CatholicEdHead]

115. Is it time for Weimar Republic-like inflation yet?

[Demeter]

137. You Are Either WAY Ahead of the Curve, Or Behind

The Weimar Republic inflation is what happened for the last 30 years.... it wasn't as fast up as Germany's so it will take longer to wear off, and maybe nobody will declare war on us...

[Hawkowl]

116. Nowhere near the bottom

I stopped watching these bubbleheads years ago. One thing is certain. The fact that they are so gushing optimism should make us all very wary. It means they have no clue what is going on and how bad it is really going to get.

It's like they jumped off a high rise and half way down they smile and say "We must have hit bottom by now!" When we finally see these idiots crying, yes literally crying, on televison in abject despair, then we will know that things are starting to turn around.

[Hugin]

117. ...

x(

[Pale Blue Dot]

118. Agreed. You should post this as a seperate thread in GD.

I would K&R it.

[Dr.Phool]

120. Likewise.

We don't get many of the "Thank God it passed" crowd in here anymore. They do have a certain entertainment value. Kind of like a circus geek, sitting there eating cockroaches.

[Neshanic]

126. Excellent post. Agree.

[ozone_man]

121. I'm always entertained

by your rants and valuable perspective on the markets, along with everyone else here.

I'm not sure what today's market logic was, something like the news was so bad that the $700 Billion homeowner aid package is more likely to be passed, or that fewer jobs is better for corporate profits. Whatever it was, it wasn't a healthy sign for the markets. Or, maybe is is simply that there is more unwinding of bearish sentiment to go still before the down trend resumes.

[AnneD]

133. Let me offer these candy coated goodies.....

from that perennial purveyor of puff----Baghdad Bob

:popcorn:

The Collected Quotations of "Baghdad Bob," Mohammed Saeed al-Sahaf: The Iraqi Minister of DisInformation
Mocking the Coalition's Attempt To Target Saddam Hussein:
"These villains, and in particular the villain Bush, said they had struck Iraq with 40 cruise missiles to assassinate President Saddam Hussein.Ê Not only are they disappointed, I think they are hysterical."

Attempting to Acknowledge What Was Happening Militarily Beyond Baghdad:
March 22, 2003
"Maybe they will enter Umm Qasr and Basra, but how will they enter Baghdad?Ê It will be a big oven for them. They can penetrate our borders but they cannot reach Baghdad. ÊThey will try to pull our army and troops out but we are well aware of their plans and they will fail."

March 23, 2003
"In Umm Qasr, the fighting is fierce and we have inflicted many damages.Ê The stupid enemy, the Americans and British, failed completely. ÊThey're not making any penetration."

As Televised Reports of U.S. Forces Approaching the Outskirts of Western Baghdad Are Shown:
"They are not any place. ÊThey are on the move everywhere. ÊThey are a snake moving in the desert. ÊThey hold no place in Iraq. ÊThis is an illusion."

After U.S. Forces Seized Baghdad's Airport:
"We butchered the force present at the airport. ÊWe have retaken the airport! ÊThere are no Americans there!"

After U.S. Troops Penetrated Central Baghdad:
April 5, 2003
"Nobody came here. Those America losers, I think their repeated frequent lies are bringing them down very rapidly....Ê Baghdad is secure, is safe."

April 5, 2003
"They are not near Baghdad. Don't believe them....Ê They said they entered with... Êtanks in the middle of the capital. ÊThey claim that they - I tell you, I... that this speech is too far from the reality. It is a part of this sickness of their plan. There is no an... - no any existence to the American troops or for the troops in Baghdad at all."

April 6, 2003
"Whenever we attack, they retreat.Ê When we pound them with missiles and heavy artillery, they retreat even deeper. ÊBut when we stopped pounding, they pushed to the airport for propaganda purposes."

April 7, 2003
"The Americans are not there. ÊThey're not in Baghdad. ÊThere are no troops there. ÊNever. ÊThey're not at all."

April 7, 2003
"U.S. forces learned a lesson last night they will never forget. ÊWe slaughtered them and will continue to slaughter them."

April 7, 2003
"There is no presence of American infidels in the city of Baghdad."

With Media Pictures of U.S. Troops Being Shown Standing Under the Giant Crossed Swords in Saddam's Favorite Parade Grounds in Baghdad, While Giving a Press Briefing Around the Corner:
"There you can see, there is nothing going on."

After U.S. Missiles Destroyed His Office in the Information Ministry and He was Forced to Give Press Briefings on the Street:
"They will be burnt. ÊWe are going to tackle them."

Disputing His Own Assertions of No Coalition Troops in Baghdad:
"We blocked them inside the city.Ê Their rear is blocked....Ê They pushed a few of their armored carriers and some tanks with their soldiers. ÊWe besieged them and I think we will finish them soon."

While American Soldiers Are Showering in Saddam's Bathroom Nearby Presidential Palace:
"We have killed most of the infidels, and I think we will finish off the rest soon."

After Being Shown Footage of Iraqi Soldiers Surrendering:
"Those are not Iraqi soldiers at all."

April 7, 2003
"This invasion will end in failure."

April 8, 2003
"Baghdad Bob" disappeared, perhaps forever.

I'd like to add
December 5, 2008
Baghdad Bob has spotted working as a PR Rep with the US Labour Department supplying stats to reporters.

:popcorn:

I'll meet you round the corner. I'll get the trash can fire going-and we'll pass around the paper bag.

[ozymandius]

135. I agree and declare this to be a farce of a pantomime.

I heard the closing numbers as I left work. It was a party on the ship of fools.

[ozymandius]

138. If you've already eaten, here's the closing numbers and babble.

Dow 8,635.42 Up 259.18 (3.09%)
Nasdaq 1,509.31 Up 63.75 (4.41%)
S&P 500 876.07 Up 30.85 (3.65%)
10-Yr Bond 2.657% Up 0.087
NYSE Volume 7,119,347,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,238,504,750

4:30 pm : Despite some of the worst jobs data in decades, stocks managed to finish the session with impressive gains after reversing early losses.

From its session low to its session high, the stock market moved from a loss of 3.2% to a gain of 4.1%. It closed with a gain of 3.7%. Stocks finished every session this week with a gain or loss of at least 2.5%. It has been six months since the stock market finished a week without closing at least 1.0% higher or lower in any of the week's sessions.

Stocks fell into an early funk as participants chewed on a 533,000 drop in November nonfarm payrolls, which is far worse than the 335,000 drop that was expected. November manufacturing payrolls declined 85,000, which was actually less than the 100,000 decline that was widely expected. The unemployment rate, now at 6.7%, is the highest in roughly 15 years. The elevated unemployment rate comes as companies lay off workers as part of an attempt to shave expenses amid stiffening economic headwinds.

Recognition of such stiff economic challenges prompted selling in commodities. The CRB Commodity Index dropped roughly 4.3%, while oil dropped around 6.0% to close just above $41 per barrel. Oil's drop took it to its lowest closing level in four years.

Oil's slide weighed on the energy sector for much of the session. The sector traded with a loss of as much as 5.8%. However, broad-based buying pulled the sector into the green, helping it finish with a 1.3% gain.

The broad-based buying effort followed gains in the financial sector, which consistently outperformed the other sectors throughout the session. Financials closed 8.6% higher, led by multiline insurers (+17.5%), like Hartford Financial (HIG 14.59, +7.38). Hartford's share price more than doubled after the company issued upside guidance for fiscal 2008. Despite the massive gain, HIG is still down 85% from its 52-week high.

Elsewhere in the financial sector, the Justice Department said the Treasury is legally bound to inject capital into government-sponsored enterprises, according to Dow Jones. On a related note, Reuters reports the Federal Reserve bought $5 billion in debt from Fannie Mae (FNM 0.87, +0.00), Freddie Mac (FRE 0.86, -0.02), and FHBL.

Executives of the Big 3 automakers have been making their own case for government funding. General Motors (GM 4.08, -0.03), Ford (F 2.72, +0.06), and Chrysler are asking Congress for billions to stave off bankruptcy. According to The Wall Street Journal, Chrysler has already hired legal firm Jones Day to provide a comprehensive analysis of the options available to the automaker.

Congressional officials continue to discuss the necessary checks and balances of providing the automakers with taxpayers' funds, making the likelihood of a speedy, clear plan uncertain.

Despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding automakers and the broader economy, stock investors successfully put together a solid rebound Friday, helping soften the week's downturn. The stock market finished the week with a 2.3% decline. That prompted bond investors to take some profits, sending the 10-year Treasury Note down around 48 ticks and pushing its yield to 2.71%. The Note's yield fell to its lowest level in decades during the prior session, around 2.54%.DJ30 +259.18 NASDAQ +63.75 NQ100 +4.4% R2K +4.9% SP400 +4.8% SP500 +30.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1874/2.23 bln/861 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2187/1.62 bln/914