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Hissyspit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-29-08 08:14 AM
Original message
Expert: Small Arkansas Earthquakes Could Be Warning
Source: Associated Press

Expert: Small Ark. earthquakes could be warning

By JON GAMBRELL, Associated Press Writer Fri Nov 28, 5:51 am ET
LITTLE ROCK, Ark. A series of small earthquakes that rattled central Arkansas in recent weeks could be a sign of something much bigger to come. By this weekend, seismologists hope to install three measurement devices to gather data about future temblors in the area. That information could show whether the rumbles come from heat-related geological changes or from an undiscovered fault which could mean a risk of substantial earthquakes in the future.

"The potential for generating a high-magnitude earthquake is real," said Haydar Al-Shukri, director of the Arkansas Earthquake Center at the University of Arkansas at Little Rock.

Five earthquakes ranging in magnitude from 2.2 to 2.7 have hit central Arkansas this month. Quakes with a magnitude of 2.5 to 3 are typically the smallest felt by people. While hundreds of earthquakes occur each year, including several in Arkansas, the location of the recent ones give Al-Shukri pause. Arkansas quakes generally occur in the state's northeast corner, part of the New Madrid Seismic Zone, where three temblors with magnitudes of around 8 struck during the winter of 1812 and smaller ones continue today. But central Arkansas does not have any seismic history, Al-Shukri said.

"It is abnormal. It is significant," he said. "We need to carefully watch this activity."

Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081128/ap_on_re_us/arkansa...
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Edweird Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-29-08 09:05 AM
Response to Original message
1. Or, they could be nothing. They may even be a GOOD thing, releasing energy in small units
Edited on Sat Nov-29-08 09:05 AM by Edweird
instead of THE BIG ONE.....
I grew up in Memphis. we had tremors a lot.
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CreekDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-29-08 10:06 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. bad news about that theory
the little ones don't release enough energy to forestall the big one.
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SlicerDicer- Donating Member (311 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-29-08 12:43 PM
Response to Reply #1
12. Go read USGS site and dig into the information...
Understand the sheer number of small ones that would be required to get the energy of a "big one" say 8.1-8.5 that was in 1800's.

Line of progression follows like this

9.0 is 100x stronger than 8.0, 8.0 is 100x stronger than 7.0 and so forth. So consider 2.blah vs 8... The sheer mechanics behind this are mind boggling. The forces released from a event like that when you get down to it.. Its very violent and catastrophic. Earthquakes are not preventable nor are they able to be released slowly. The only way to prepare is to build accordingly. By build accordingly look at New Castle NSW after the earthquake there. All the unreinforced masonry was torn down. Thus afterwards they rebuilt to handle earthquakes better. In my mind a earthquake like that would be catastrophic and terrible beyond belief. But the recovery afterward would ensure that it would not happen again if regulatory boards took over and made sure it was done right. This is the only way to get past this without damage in the future. The thought of tearing down towns to rebuild on a chance of a quake being whatever percentile is not enough to move people. It takes catastrophe always and unfortunately this leads to massive loss of life usually. Humans by default seem to be highly irrational and thus the mess we are in :/
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Ediacara Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-29-08 06:43 PM
Response to Reply #12
18. Incorrect kind of
9.0 is 100x greater than 7.0. The difference between one whole integer is 32x, so the difference between a 2.0 and 8.0 is 1,000,000x not 1,000,000,000,000,000x.

Although what you're saying is true, four 2.x quakes is nowhere near as powerful as one 8.x.

(as an aside, logarithms are completely counterintuitive, and earthquakes should be measured on a linear scale)
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SlicerDicer- Donating Member (311 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-30-08 11:30 AM
Response to Reply #18
43. Indeed the power is just crazy though is what I was driving at.
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Donnachaidh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-29-08 08:01 PM
Response to Reply #1
26. or it could be a totally unknown fault that is extended from the New Madrid.
That fault is due, and after living through one big quake in an area that is familiar with the problem, I would NOT want to be in the quake zone in the New Madrid area when it hit.
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flyingfysh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-29-08 09:57 AM
Response to Original message
2. I think I know what Limbaugh will call this
It is a fault in Arkansas, therefore: it's Clinton's Fault!
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Phred42 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-29-08 10:50 AM
Response to Reply #2
4. Point!
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Acadia Blue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-29-08 11:08 AM
Response to Reply #2
6. The rush drug addict is already blaming Obama for the recession
along with that fruit cake Hannity. So they will blame anything regardless of who did it on any democrat. Their followers are so stupid that they believe anything
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Donnachaidh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-29-08 08:06 PM
Response to Reply #2
28. nah -- it's a Huckabee Fault
The Clintons have been away from Arkansas for some time. Drop it in *scary eyeballs* Huckabee-land with all the other evangelical snake handlers.
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dbackjon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-01-08 07:25 PM
Response to Reply #2
75. God's punishment to Arkansas for the Gay Adoption Ban
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NOW tense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-29-08 10:55 AM
Response to Original message
5. Earthquakes will increase from now till
a date in the next few years. Resulting in the possible switching of our Poles.
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Acadia Blue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-29-08 11:09 AM
Response to Reply #5
7. A pole switch could destroy all life on earth from what I have read.
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NOW tense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-29-08 11:30 AM
Response to Reply #7
8. Yes it would
Edited on Sat Nov-29-08 12:05 PM by NOW tense
But it is what happens during that is what interests me. Would people find that inner peace at that moment would we as spiritual beings find what we seek? It would be the one moment all of humanity would be in the present moment.

I am sorry to freak people out. It may be the cloudy day.
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Dr.Phool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-29-08 12:14 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. ?
:rofl:

Just as likely, people will shit their pants, kill each other and convert to Islam or Scientology.
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NOW tense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-29-08 12:53 PM
Response to Reply #9
14. Absolutely
but when I'm talking hypothetical, why not ask that question?
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Ediacara Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-29-08 06:52 PM
Response to Reply #14
23. Because that's just silly
Compasses would stop working. The orienteering merit badge would be discontinued. Migrating birds might get lost.

Anything else is extrapolation beyond even wild eyed speculation....
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Ediacara Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-29-08 06:47 PM
Response to Reply #8
21. I think people would start throwing compasses on the ground and mumble obscenities
and then go on living their lives...
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NOW tense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-29-08 07:42 PM
Response to Reply #21
24. I think it would be more serious than 10 Boy Scouts wonder what happened
to their compass. We are talking The oceans sloshing all the way up to the Rocky Mountains.
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Ediacara Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-29-08 09:34 PM
Response to Reply #24
31. LOL!
Thanks for the laugh!
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tkmorris Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-01-08 01:08 AM
Response to Reply #24
52. I'm not going to flame you, BUT
You really don't know what you are talking about. A switch in the Earth's magnetic poles would do no such thing. Furthermore any claim that such a switch is imminent is pure speculation. Please don't believe everything you read on the internet.
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Selatius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-01-08 06:38 PM
Response to Reply #24
73. You are confusing a magnetic pole shift with a geologic shift in earth's rotation.
If all of a sudden earth flipped upside down, oceans would be thrown around, but a magnetic pole shift is merely the shifting of the magnetic orientation of earth, not the geologic orientation of earth.

There's a universe of difference between the two.
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lutefisk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-01-08 01:33 AM
Response to Reply #21
53. But would my GPS still work so I can get where I'm going?...n/t
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Ediacara Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-01-08 12:32 PM
Response to Reply #53
57. Probably
Although I guess that depends on how the GPS satellites navigate.
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Hestia Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-01-08 02:33 PM
Response to Reply #8
65. Read "The Flower of Life" by Drumvalo Mekezidek, it has meditations
to help you survive the pole shifts. It's hard to explain, but supposedly, if you go through a shift unaided, your memory is wiped out. You will see a pencil, but have absolutely no idea what to do with it. This is the why of the meditations.

Sorry for the thread drift...
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Ediacara Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-01-08 05:10 PM
Response to Reply #65
67. And he knows this because?...
Was he around at the last pole shift seven hundred eighty thousand years ago? Did some individual of Homo erectus or H. antecessor happen to write down what to do (after having forgotten how to write) and handed that knowledge down to Mr Mekezidek? Did he translate that into some modern language after having learned a language and writing system used seven hundred seventy thousand years before agriculture was developed and seven hundred seventy-four thousand years before writing was developed?

Or is he peddling bullshit?
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kimmerspixelated Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-01-08 05:46 PM
Response to Reply #65
71. Do you think the pole shifts
are expected in 2012? In addition, do you think that the possible change of conciousness( a new awakening so to speak reported to begin in 2012) will be facilitated by the pole shifts?
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Ediacara Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-29-08 06:47 PM
Response to Reply #7
22. You have read nonsense
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NOW tense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-29-08 07:44 PM
Response to Reply #22
25. Here is your non sense
Edited on Sat Nov-29-08 07:51 PM by NOW tense
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2003/29dec_magneticf...

No Earthquake is involved. My use of Earthquakes come from Edgar Casey a person I find fascinating.

http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2005/jan/HQ_05011_earth...
Some more crazy science
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Donnachaidh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-29-08 08:05 PM
Response to Reply #25
27. quoting Edgar Casey?
:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
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NOW tense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-29-08 08:08 PM
Response to Reply #27
29. I didn't say I believe him I said he was fascinating.
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tblue37 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-30-08 12:50 AM
Response to Reply #25
38. Cayce, I believe. nt
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Posteritatis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-29-08 11:17 PM
Response to Reply #7
34. Much like it did the last few hundred times oh wait. (nt)
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DavidDvorkin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-29-08 12:18 PM
Response to Reply #5
10. And the scientific basis for that statement is ... ?
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NOW tense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-29-08 12:33 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. There isn't one
I just thought I would through it out there and watch the reaction.
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HCE SuiGeneris Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-30-08 12:44 PM
Response to Reply #11
46. Better if you threw it out there...
Edited on Sun Nov-30-08 12:45 PM by BushDespiser12
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Oak2004 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-29-08 03:52 PM
Response to Reply #5
17. It is quite possible that a magnetic pole reversal is underway.
The pole has been moving towards Siberia fairly rapidly in recent years, and the magnetic field has been weakening. We probably won't know if we're looking at a reversal, or merely what is called an excursion, or just some vigorous wobbling, for millenia to come.

Judging from past magnetic pole reversals (they happen frequently, at least in geological terms), most of life on earth (pretty much everybody other than compass users) will be unperturbed by the switch. Some species might have some navigation issues, but given that no species (our included) appears to navigate solely through magnetism, it's likely they'll cope, minus any additional stressors. Even cetaceans made it through the last reversal.

I am not losing any sleep over the prospect of a magnetic pole reversal.

A physical pole reversal ain't happening unless we get smacked by a planet sized rock, and if that were to happen the least of our worries would be the pole shift.

Apologies for reinserting science back into a science topic :sarcasm:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetic_reversal
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Ediacara Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-29-08 06:46 PM
Response to Reply #17
19. What exactly do these quakes have to do with a magnetic reversal?
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Oak2004 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-30-08 12:30 AM
Response to Reply #19
37. Absolutely nothing nt
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JJ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-29-08 09:51 PM
Response to Reply #17
32. What about the Van Allen belts?
would a pole reversal affect how much hard radiation hit the ground?

Just asking, I don't know enough about it.
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Oak2004 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-30-08 01:29 PM
Response to Reply #32
49. What exactly will happen is anyone's guess, at least with respect to the magnetosphere
Habilis was around for the last one, but left no written accounts, as you might guess.

Long distance radio transmissions might become wonky, or they might become even more potent. Aurora will change, but how remains to be seen. And the Van Allen Belts will do, well, something. Given that all of this will happen gradually, our technology will have plenty of time to adapt.

One thing that's certain, though, from the fossil record, is that life does not die.
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Psephos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-30-08 11:55 PM
Response to Reply #17
51. A magnetic pole reversal is *always* underway...
Think wobbly pendulum.

Just like a climate change is *always* underway.

These are dynamical, nonlinear systems perpetually moving between two "strange attractors." The movements may show some periodicity (cycles) or they may not...at least on human time scales.

Quick gloss: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attractor


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Ediacara Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-29-08 06:46 PM
Response to Reply #5
20. What exactly do these quakes have to do with a magnetic reversal?
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Chulanowa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-30-08 02:24 AM
Response to Reply #5
40. And then Atlantean crystal spaceships will zoom around
and the lizard men will run amok. AMOK, I SAY!
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Bake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-01-08 11:22 AM
Response to Reply #5
56. How so? North becomes South, and vice versa?
I haven't seen anything about that, but I'm very interested.

Bake
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VaYallaDawg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-01-08 12:55 PM
Response to Reply #56
61. My Grandma will roll over in her grave if South becomes North.
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Ediacara Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-01-08 05:12 PM
Response to Reply #56
68. The core of the Earth will change so that the red compass needles will point to south
After a period of time when they will be completely unreliable. The planet will not go wonky, and the sun will still rise in the east. This could happen sometime between tomorrow and 100 million years from now.
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Rockholm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-01-08 06:39 PM
Response to Reply #5
74. Leave the Polish people out of this nonsense.
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tucsonlib Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-29-08 12:43 PM
Response to Original message
13. The Correct Term Is "tremor", Not "tremblor". n/t
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Oak2004 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-29-08 03:13 PM
Response to Reply #13
15. Tremblor is correct usage
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XemaSab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-01-08 12:43 PM
Response to Reply #13
58. Temblor is also a correct word
n/t
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ayeshahaqqiqa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-29-08 03:35 PM
Response to Original message
16. Hot Springs is just southwest of Little Rock
To my mind, the presence of hot springs (and crystals) indicates volcanic activity in the past--if the magma is heating up again and moving around, would this cause earthquakes? Thanks in advance for the science minded in the group.
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bvar22 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-30-08 01:24 PM
Response to Reply #16
48. Absolutely.
That is one of the alternate explanations for the minor quakes.
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Hestia Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-01-08 02:39 PM
Response to Reply #16
66. If you read the full article, small quakes around Hot Springs are expected
due to the hot springs in the area. If you go down into the basement of the bath houses, you can see magma moving all the time. The article says that in the HS area, it most likely never go above a 5. Now, the one in Hector area (above Russellville on 105), *that* is a problem child. Gorgeous country there though, and not much population, it's in a Nat'l Forest Area. It's an area that the geologists are curious about.

Could this have anything do do with the cracks and sink holes in Okla. in the last year or two? Surely the two are connected, due to the Ouachita (Wash-i-ta) Mtns (see Talamena Trail)? That was the first thing that popped into my mind.
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pitohui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-29-08 08:33 PM
Response to Original message
30. interesting but what's the point of being warned about something you can do nothing abt?
do they propose to evacuate central arkansas? as a practical matter i just don't see it

interesting science project but "warning" is a bit of a scare word, a warning is useless when you can't act on it anyway and people might be inclined to say, well, why borrow trouble?
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Dead_Parrot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-29-08 10:11 PM
Response to Reply #30
33. It gives people a chance to prepare
Stock up on food and bottled water, any medicines they might need, and whatever camping equipment they need to rough through the aftermath. Otherwise, they're sleeping in the car waiting for someone to organise a soup kitchen...
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pitohui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-30-08 11:58 AM
Response to Reply #33
44. again, when would they know to prepare? or is this sales for the mormon grocery store?
Edited on Sun Nov-30-08 11:59 AM by pitohui
do you think someone's doctor is going to suddenly write you an extra script for your pain medication because an earthquake "might" hit in arkansas sometime in the next 5,000 years?

what good is that stock of food and water going to do in your basement at home if the earthquake hits while you're at the office?

and so forth

this is not like a hurricane, i fail to see what individual preparations will do, unless the timing of the quake is perfect, all that crap you've bought is not going to be where you can get it anyway, i for one wouldn't sit at home under my basement with my stockpile, i'd be going about my normal life, school, work, social activities, and so on

one thing i learned from katrina that being over-prepared, having more stockpiled than you can carry, is a waste, because you're getting separated from any large quantity of crap -- and of course the lesson of Y2K is that you can spend a lot of money being "prepared" and while you're harmed financially the only one who benefits is the business selling survivalism and hysteria

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Dead_Parrot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-30-08 12:49 PM
Response to Reply #44
47. LOL
i for one wouldn't sit at home under my basement with my stockpile, i'd be going about my normal life, school, work, social activities, and so on...

Yeah, whatever. Here's some other people going about thier normal lives after an earthquake:


Dumbass.
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XemaSab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-01-08 12:48 PM
Response to Reply #44
59. Having been through a large quake
even if your house is okay, all the food at the grocery store is probably on the floor, there may be debris in the streets, the streets might be crowded with emergency vehicles, and getting food might be rough for a few days.

Just keeping a couple bottles of water, a couple cans of soup, and a few other basic supplies to get through a few days after a quake is a GOOD idea.

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kristopher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-01-08 12:57 PM
Response to Reply #44
62. There is great value in knowing if you live in an earthquake zone.
There are construction techniques that can dramatically minimize the damage. If you live in an earthquake zone, then you incorporate those techniques into your building codes. It doesn't help the old buildings, but when you rebuild after that big one...

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depakid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-01-08 07:38 PM
Response to Reply #62
76. The trouble in this region is unreinforced masonry
Even in a modest temblor (by West Coast standards) that stuff is coming down...



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Mojorabbit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-01-08 01:32 PM
Response to Reply #44
64. I learned the opposite
when we got hit with three hurricanes in six weeks. My supplies came in very handy. I had water filters so did not need to boil my water. I had lots of long term storage foods that kept our bellys filled with a variety that only needed hot water to prepare. I had plenty of propane for the grill. I had oil lamps and candles to use for light till the power was restored. I had plenty of gas for the generator. I had a battery radio to listen to the news and a battery powered small tv to watch it. It was a week before we completely cleared a path from the house to the road which was filled with downed trees. My money was well spent IMO.
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Selatius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-01-08 06:30 PM
Response to Reply #44
72. I learned having too much canned goods is not bad durinig Katrina. I live on the MS coast.
Edited on Mon Dec-01-08 06:33 PM by Selatius
There was a lot of chaos in the days following that disaster. There were so many dead bodies the next city over, and services weren't back for weeks. The excess food and other supplies served as a psychological aid in a period where government institutions utterly failed. Besides, even if you have too much canned goods, it's not out of the question to share with next door neighbors.

As far as preparing for earthquakes go, if it is found that central Arkansas has a new fault line, building codes must be updated to make future structures safer, and pre-existing structures must be retrofitted. It is a matter of saving human life.
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HillbillyBob Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-01-08 10:19 AM
Response to Reply #30
54. Not a lot you can do, but the kinds of things folks are suppose
to do in California. Strap your water heater, furnace, any other large appliances that can fall over. make sure things on the walls are secure.
I was in the Navy and everything on the ship had to be secured.
I have kerosene lamps that I make sure are in places they cannot tip over. I have the kerosene lamps because I lived through hurricanes in fla where we had no power for days afterward. We live in rural NC and are sort of at the end of the line for our power, and its off and on. Say some schmo hits a power pole, or trees take down the lines we can be w/o power for hours possibly days.
I have a single burner gas hotplate that runs on butane I use at such times.
if there were such a major quake in New Madrid it would most likely affect power production.
The TVA hydro power dams, power lines.
Why is it when something like this is said, there is always someone that claims its only a scare tactic? I believe in trying to be ready for most anything.
You can be prepared without being freaked out.
After Huricane Andrew, our power was back up in a couple of hours, but someone taking advantage of all the confusion and Florida Power and Lights being strung out tight, cut the power lines leading to our apartment complex and stole all the wire. Since FP&L was so busy elsewhere we were without power for 8 weeks!
I learned you can make coffee on a gas grill, lucky for us we kept an extra tank.
I almost always have extra food on hand, for us or those neighbors that get caught out.
The best you can do is try to be prepared within your budget, and let the Goddess handle the rest. It is not like I spent a lot of time figuring things out, when I come across stuff that I can do rather easily I just do it as I can manage.
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Posteritatis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-29-08 11:18 PM
Response to Original message
35. Isn't a series of small quakes a *good* thing?
Any of those is relieving pressure on the plates, after all.
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Dinger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-29-08 11:19 PM
Response to Original message
36. Wasn't There An Earthquake In Indiana Not That Long Ago?
I'm not kidding.
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flygal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-30-08 04:34 AM
Response to Reply #36
41. Yes, earlier this year I believe
I asked my friend if that's unuasual and she said Hell yes it's unusual. In Montana we had some center around Yellowstone.
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Ferretherder Donating Member (991 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-30-08 01:01 AM
Response to Original message
39. The very first thing I thought about.......
....New Madrid.

And the NEXT thing I thought about.....

....BAD.

The New Madrid fault is due exactly what our economy just experienced - A CORRECTION!
The pressure has been building ever since the big shake in 1812. The opposing plates WILL re-align, or 'correct' their positions at some point, because they simply CANNOT keep pushing at each other without one or the other giving ground - quite literally, I'm afraid.

The big one in San Fran at the turn of the last century......BAD.

When the New Madrid does its thing again, well...........you ain't seen NOTHIN', yet!
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judasdisney Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-30-08 07:29 AM
Response to Original message
42. An Earthquake Theory
(1) Water weighs a lot

(2) Greenland and the Antarctic have a lot of land-cover ice that is melting and contributing added "weight" to the non-land surface of the planet

(3) Does extra ocean weight push on ocean tectonic plates?

(4) Are earthquakes increasing worldwide, both ocean-floor quakes and those not based under oceans? Are these faults not connected?
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Posteritatis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-30-08 11:58 AM
Response to Reply #42
45. The oceans are a fragment of a feather compared to the tectonic plates (nt)
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Dogmudgeon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-30-08 03:28 PM
Response to Reply #42
50. That's technically called "Isostatic Rebound"
And Google will fetch a lot of links for it.

--p!
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treestar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-01-08 10:35 AM
Response to Original message
55. Earthquakes are completely unpredictable
This is always said whenever there is a small one.

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kristopher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-01-08 01:01 PM
Response to Reply #55
63. That isn't entirely true.
They are unpredictable on a human time scale, however in geologic time they are extremely predictable.

Occasionally they two overlap: California, Japan etc...
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Ediacara Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-01-08 05:19 PM
Response to Reply #63
69. The word you're looking for is "forecast"
A prediction is saying that an earthquake of such and such magnitude will happen on this date at this time. A forecast is saying that an earthquake of this range of magnitude has a XX% chance of occurring in this area in XX years.
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kristopher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-01-08 05:42 PM
Response to Reply #69
70. Thank you but
I'm entirely satisfied with the words as I wrote them; your interpretation isn't required.

If you wish to rely to post #55 then do so directly.
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Ediacara Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-02-08 06:18 PM
Response to Reply #70
77. Whatever you say
What you described was a forecast. A prediction is a specific magnitude, date, time, and location. Earthquakes are unpredictable. They are not unforecastable. What you described (They are unpredictable on a human time scale, however in geologic time they are extremely predictable) was forecasting.
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kristopher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-02-08 11:35 PM
Response to Reply #77
78. It is a distinction without a difference.
While it may be relevant in certain narrow, discipline specific realms, your fixation on my vocabulary in this context is out of place.

But now that you've made an issue of it, let me ask you to document your assertion with some sort of reference that shows my usage on an internet forum is inappropriate. I suspect it will be difficult; but thank you again for your concern.

Definitions of prediction on the Web:

* the act of predicting (as by reasoning about the future)
* a statement made about the future
wordnet.princeton.edu/perl/webwn

* "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future."- Niels Bohr
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction

* A statement of what will happen in the future
en.wiktionary.org/wiki/prediction

* A broad statement (based on an observation, experience, or scientific reason) of what will happen (the effect) in a given circumstance or situation.
www.thinkport.org/06b34a5c-1738-4c79-a90b-f68a2e380c32....

* The magician predicts the choice of a spectator, or the outcome of an event under seemingly impossible circumstancesa newspaper headline is predicted, the total amount of loose change in the spectator's pocket, a picture drawn on a slate. ...
www.wikiclone.org/en/wiki/Magic_ (illusion).html

* A statement foretelling the possible outcome(s) of an event, process, or experiment. In meteorology, a prediction is also called a forecast. A prediction is based on observations, experience, and scientific reasoning. ...
www.esse.ou.edu/glossary_st.html

* A specific statement about a future condition. Usually made by non-experts (who would like to add qualifications or ranges). An example would be "who is going to win the football game this week".
ag.arizona.edu/futures/home/glossary.html

* is a statement in advance of an event. That statement may be based on observation or experience.
enviromysteries.thinkport.org/breakingthemold/resources/glossary.shtml

* Prediction is defined as
www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/wind/valid/tutorial/glossary.html

* A statement (usually quantitative) about what will happen under specific conditions, as a logical consequence of scientific theories.
www.umetrics.com/default.asp/pagename/methods_over_dict...

* Establishing enumeration/chronology values for first expected issue, after selecting a publication pattern. ...
lts.library.cornell.edu/lts/rt/acqglossary.cfm

* data mining can show how certain attributes within the data will behave in the future
ocw.kfupm.edu.sa/user062%5CICS54101/11-%20Chapter-27-Data-Mining-Concepts.ppt

* quantitative or qualitative estimate or expectation of what actually will happen; a forecast.
www.cara.psu.edu:8080/info_resources/infoResourcesGlossary.asp

* 1. the act of predicting. 2. an instance of this; something predicted; prophecy.
towerweb.net/alt-lib/occult/definitions.shtml

* Step four in the scientific method. The prediction is a formal way to put a hypothesis to a test. If you have carefully designed your hypothesis ...
www.williamjhudson.net/evolution/glossary.html

* The skill of extrapolating to a future event or process based on theory, investigation, or experience.
www.geocities.com/sciencewithpalmer/WASLterms.doc

* A statement that suggests likely future events or outcomes.
atschool.eduweb.co.uk/kingworc/departments/geography/asglossarycw.htm

* Development of definite statements about the future based on a knowledge of how changes in the environment will shape the future.
harvardbusinessonline.hbsp.harvard.edu/hbsp/hbr/articles/article.jsp

* The use of a predictor to provide an estimate of the data element currently being decoded, eg for ADPCM audio encoding. Both ADPCM and MLP use prediction for subsequent samples and then code only the difference between the predicted and actual values.
www.multimediadirector.com/help/technology/glossary/glo...

* prophecy, foretelling; something that is forecast
www.thepsychiccenter.com/glossary.html

* Though the public in particular speaks of astrologers as "predicting", it cannot too often be emphasized that astrology cannot be relied upon to predict specific events.
astrology.uk70.com/info/glossary2.htm

Definitions of forecast on the Web:

* predict in advance
* calculate: judge to be probable
* prognosis: a prediction about how something (as the weather) will develop
* bode: indicate by signs; "These signs bode bad news"
wordnet.princeton.edu/perl/webwn

* Forecasting is the process of estimation in unknown situations. Prediction is a similar, but more general term, and usually refers to estimation of time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data. Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting and prediction. ...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forecast

* Forecast is a skateboarding video, featuring Paul Rodriguez Jr., and several other of his friends such as Nick McLouth, Mike Mo Capaldi, Jason Wakuzawa, Bryan Herman, Robbie McKinley, Stefan Janoski, Cale Nuske, Chris Roberts, Leo Romero, Mike Taylor and Mike Barker. ...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forecast (video)

* An estimation; A prediction of the weather; To estimate how a condition will be in the future
en.wiktionary.org/wiki/forecast

* Definite statement or statistical estimate of the occurrence of a future event (UNESCO, WMO).
www.adrc.or.jp/publications/terminology/top.htm

* attempt to predict the future tendency with the help of examination and analysis of the available data.
www.forexltd.ru/study/glossary

* An estimation or calculation in advance; a prediction. The amount of cargo expected to be booked for a certain sailing of a vessel. The number of containers expected to be used in a certain area, for steering purposes.
www.eyefortransport.com/glossary/ef.shtml

* A weather prediction.
terrax.org/sailing/glossary/gf.aspx

* a prediction of what sales will be achieved over a given period, anything from a week to a year. Sales managers require sales people to forecast, in order to provide data to production, purchasing, and other functions whose activities need to be planned to meet sales demand. ...
www.bizjobs.com/business_glossary.php

* Prospective financial statements that are an entity's expected financial position, results of operations, and cash flows
www.startheregoplaces.com/glossary/

* A prediction of the value of a variable in a statistical study.
viewpointbank.mediaroom.com/index.php

* Plotting the movements of the planets to determine upcoming trends.
www.findyourfate.com/faq/f-glossary.htm

* Predicted demand for electric power for a given customer or group of customers for a given period. A forecast may be short-term (eg, 15 minutes) for system operation purposes, or five to ten years for a contract period, or twenty years for generating planning purposes. ...
www.neo.ne.gov/phase1/glossary.htm

* A prediction of future conditions by analysis of data. For example, precipitation forecasts are based on meteorological data.
www.climas.arizona.edu/forecasts/glossary.html

* Process that assists in the preparation of a balanced budget. Budget Office utilizes the current budget and extrapolates a projection of this into the future based on inflators and data received from various departments and offices.
www.finsvc.duke.edu/budget/budterm.html

* Something that tells us what the weather is going to be like
www.rcn27.dial.pipex.com/cloudsrus/glossary.html

* estimating conditions in the future; this is a prediction based on experimental or environmental data, and/or models
www.soest.hawaii.edu/HIOOS/hioos_glossary.htm

* An estimate of what might happen in the future. It is not absolute and often has probabilities attached. It is a "best guess".
ag.arizona.edu/futures/home/glossary.html

* The projection selected as the one most likely to provide an accurate prediction of the future value of a variable. This is a judgmental statement about what the analyst believes to be the most likely future.
garnet.acns.fsu.edu/~tchapin/urp5261/glossary.htm

* Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the state of the atmosphere for a future time and a given location. All weather information found on this site has been sourced from The Weather Company and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
weather.landmark.com.au/terms-and-definitions/

* Estimate of future demand.
multichannelmerchant.com/opsandfulfillment/warehouse/warehouse_glossary/

* A prediction about the future, concerning a company's earnings, revenues, share price, or other financial data.
ir.sunrype.com/phoenix.zhtml

* to predict or a prediction
activities.macmillanmh.com/science/ca/grade5/glossary/f.html

* A calculation or estimate of something future, especially coming weather.
www.spaceforspecies.ca/glossary/f.htm
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Ediacara Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-08 12:20 AM
Response to Reply #78
79. You can give me web definitions and call sour grapes all you want
I'm giving you the very distinct and very different definitions that are really used by real geoscientists in the real world.

But if you'd like to say that you can predict earthquakes (while actually forecasting them) be my guest.
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kristopher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-08 12:54 AM
Response to Reply #79
80. Is this discussion taking place among "real geoscientists"?
Edited on Wed Dec-03-08 01:00 AM by kristopher
No, it isn't.
Your mistake isn't a matter of a technical definition as it relates to earthquake forecasts versus prediction; rather it is your claim that I was in search of more appropriate terminology to express myself. I wasn't. I'm going to speculate that you are a newly minted undergrad (perhaps overly?) eager to display your newly acquired and hard won knowledge. Sincerely, congratulations! But it is still (as stated) a distinction without a difference in this context.

The wide variety of definitions google serves up clearly demonstrate that for virtually all purposes, the two terms are interchangeable. Indeed it is difficult to define one except by reference to the other. So, in spite of your rudeness, I still offer you the chance to display your familiarity with the subject matter and give a citation showing that my usage is inappropriate. Not technically incorrect, but inappropriate to the venue.

And just for grins, I'll also, in the context of geology, challenge the accuracy of the definitions you posted earlier and the accuracy of your critique of my use of the word prediction. You wrote:
The word you're looking for is "forecast"

A prediction is saying that an earthquake of such and such magnitude will happen on this date at this time. A forecast is saying that an earthquake of this range of magnitude has a XX% chance of occurring in this area in XX years.


Here is the wiki take on it:
Predictions versus forecasts

A meaningful earthquake prediction must have all the following elements:

* Specific area
* Specific magnitude or magnitude range
* Specific time window
* Estimate of probability compared to random chance
* A physical basis

A meaningful 'forecast' does not require the same accuracy, rather the term refers to prognostications on a longer time scale that are usually probabilistic.

Note that a physical basis is most critical for a prediction to have meaning to the geological community. Any method to make accurate predictions would be welcome and meaningful to many people even if no mechanism were known (much like doctors are now investigating diagnostics through statistical analysis of gene expression microarrays, even when the mechanisms linking particular genes to conditions remain unknown), as long as it was repeatable and the reliability could be quantified.


I specifically referred to Japan and California. I'm very familiar with the 70 year cycle of earthquakes in the Kanto region of Japan and it fits all the criteria listed above for a meaningful "prediction". I suspect the Southern California area has a similar profile. You will note that in wiki the terms such as "specific time window" and "magnitude range" are much more flexible than your portrayal.

Added on edit: You also should look more carefully before you sneer at "web definitions". There are a wide array of sources for those definitions and it is precisely by studying such a variety that the actual meaning of words is derived. Take that as a tip from a minor in linguistics.






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Nihil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-08 06:48 AM
Response to Reply #80
81. "Take that as a tip from a minor in linguistics."
Not to mention a major in assholeship.
:eyes:
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kristopher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-08 12:33 PM
Response to Reply #81
83. Is that you Lambchop?
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Nihil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-08 01:12 PM
Response to Reply #83
85. QED.
(It would also appear that your linguistic skills are lacking in
your "witty" replies ... a bit like your "serious" ones for that
matter but WTH ...)
:hi:
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Ediacara Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-08 10:17 AM
Response to Reply #80
82. Yet again you use the terms incorrectly
It's like you're proving my point every time you post.
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kristopher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-08 12:35 PM
Response to Reply #82
84. You don't have a point
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Ediacara Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-08 10:19 PM
Response to Reply #84
86. Is that a concession?
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seemslikeadream Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-01-08 12:54 PM
Response to Original message
60. I hear there will be 2 BIG ones middle of December
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