Reuters/Zogby Battleground 8-State Surveys: Obama Builds on Leads in OH & NV; Holds Margins in VA &

[DeltaLitProf]

Source: http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1628

UTICA, New York - Reuters/Zogby telephone surveys of eight battleground states show Democrat Barack Obama in a very strong position to be elected President. The key findings in these polls show expanded Obama margins in Ohio and Nevada and continued leads in Pennsylvania and Virginia.

In the other states tested in this latest Reuters/Zogby package of state surveys, Florida, North Carolina and Missouri remain very close, while John McCain is holding his advantage in Indiana. Obama has leads of less than two points in Florida and Missouri, and McCain is ahead by the same margin in North Carolina.

Reuters/Zogby tested seven of these same states last week. Included this week was Pennsylvania, where McCain is making a major effort to win a state that went to the Democrats four years ago. West Virginia, where McCain had a 10-point lead last week, was not surveyed.

The surveys were conducted from Oct. 30 to Nov. 2. Sample sizes in each state ranged from 600-605, with a margin of error of +/-4.1%.

Here are the states where Obama leads, with each state's Electoral votes shown:

Pennsylvania (21)


Nov. 2

Obama


53.7%

McCain


40.0%

Other/Not Sure


6.3%

Obama trails McCain by just three points among white voters, and that is not enough of a lead for McCain. Obama is winning 98% of the African-American vote. The other keys are Obama's small lead among voters over age 65 and Catholics.

Ohio (20)


Nov. 2


Oct. 26

Obama


50.2%


49.7%

McCain


43.9%


45.1%

Other/Not Sure


5.9%


5.3%

Obama is now beating McCain among Independents, 60%-27%, an 18-point jump from last week. His other gain is among 18-29-year-olds, where he now leads by 30 points.

Virginia (13)


Nov. 2


Oct. 26

Obama


50.7%


52.0

McCain


44.6%


44.8

Other/Not Sure


4.7%


3.2

McCain made a small gain among Independents, but still trails the demographic group by 15. Obama continues to do a few points better among his own party than McCain does with the GOP. McCain increased his lead among white voters, and is now up, 61%-34%. He needs more than that to overcome Obama's 94% among African-Americans.

Nevada (5)


Nov. 2


Oct. 26

Obama


50.7%


48.2

McCain


42.9%


44.0

Other/Not Sure


6.4%


7.8

Read more: http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1628

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Take especial note of the Ohio results. Zogby has Obama with a huge lead in the one state McCain must have.

[Indenturedebtor]

1. And this is Zogby - which has consistently trended to support McBush

Good news! Here's hoping we bring it home!

[Tarheel_Dem]

2. Looks good, but do we really trust Zogby at this point? These numbers

may indeed be closer to reality than those in the past, because even Zogby wants to be able to say he was right in the end. I'll take it.

[shotten99]

3. It's definitely an indication

but I wouldn't give Zogby anymore credit than a trend.