US To Face Poor Economy for 10-15 Years: Robertson

[AlphaCentauri]

Source: CNBC

Multi-millionaire investor Julian Robertson told CNBC that the United States is "just getting into the recession," and that the poor economy will last as long as 10 to 15 years.

Last year, Robertson had said that the U.S. economy was in for "a doozy of a recession." He said the reason was the credit situation was worse than anyone had thought.

"Doozy’s a tough one and long one, I think that’s what we’re headed for," said the chairman of Tiger Management.

"I don’t mean to imply that this is going to last quite as long as what’s been happening in Japan, but when they went into their decline in 1990, almost 20 years ago, their people were loaded with savings—but all broke," he said. "...If we leave out the home in the calculations, I’d say that 80-85 percent of Americans are broke. So they have to cut back on their spending."



Read more: http://www.cnbc.com/id/27165599

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OMG it's not over yet

[mediaman007]

1. Twenty years! Just long enough to get rid of most of the

baby-boomers! Coincidence?

[du_grad]

20. Unfortunately, you're probably right

As a 59 year old boomer, I have watched many of my fellow boomers living on plastic over the years. One of my coworkers has been in the money for years. Her husband is heavily into real estate and runs an auto dealership. They bought a huge home on some acreage a few years ago, before the real estate bust but within the last ten years. I believe she is working mainly for the health insurance, as she's made it clear in the past she really doesn't HAVE to work .

She told someone at work that her husband only sold one car last month. I would suspect that their real estate holdings are in trouble as well as their bottom line. Clearly, they have bought into this ridiculous idea of "The American Dream" and they could go bust, although I have no direct knowledge of that, as she works a different shift than I do. They are not the only ones who have bought this tired media line.

I have always been prudent with money. We never upgraded to the 2500-3000 square foot house (with its additional need for water, electricity, gas, furniture, etc.) like many did within the last 15 years. I am appalled at the greed shown by people my age that are in high decision making positions. I mean, how many damned toys can you own??? How much plastic can you slide through the scanners? Can we blame it on OUR parents (who are now in their 80's, if they're indeed still alive) who only wanted the best for us after having lived through the hell of the Great Depression? There MAY be a bit of that in there, but we CHOSE to be profligate in our spending.

The idea that we can get rid of manufacturing jobs, ship them all to China and Mexico, have them ship stuff back to us, and then, after everyone is OUT of work, have anyone left here to buy it who has any money at all is really stupid. People who work in the service industries don't make enough money to buy a lot of retail items. People who USED to work in factory jobs don't have any money to buy anything at all. I am in Ohio and we are hurting here. Where do these companies think they are going to sell their wares??

My husband and I both work in health care, which is, sadly enough, the only growth industry in this country right now. I have no idea whether we will be able to retire at age 65. I would suspect not. I feel fairly certain that I will have a job for as long as I want it, as both of us work in jobs that are hard to fill. My heart goes out to those who are hurting.

Health is the key to everything and I only hope we can hold onto it during the next decade.

[awoke_in_2003]

24. Welcome to DU

:hi:

[Oldtimeralso]

28. Welcome to DU

I'm a boomer also, I was just thrown out of my job after 36 years (physically disqualified). I'm 59 also but if was able to get a disability after 13 months. The only reason I made it was may wifes strength. If it wasn't for her support I never would have made it. Her job provides us with health insurance. When times were good I always told her that we need to save for a rainy day, but for my last 8 years if working my wages were frozen. Our only means of survival were credit cards and now we have to pay the piper. Together we will make it.
Hang it there I also believe it is going to be a long ride on this downhill cycle.
Welcome again to DU, and if you are brave check out the Lounge.

[du_grad]

46. Thanks for the welcomes

I appreciate them.

Good luck to everyone in this lousy economy. Hopefully the GOP hell will soon be over with.

[raccoon]

38. It confuses me that you say "WE CHOSE to be profligate in our spending,"

Yet you also say, "I have always been prudent with money."

Lots of other boomers besides you were prudent with money. Not every one owned all those "damned toys." And by the way, some people younger than boomers are very profligate with money.

"Can we blame it on OUR parents (who are now in their 80's, if they're indeed still alive) who only wanted the best for us after having lived through the hell of the Great Depression?"

Not all of OUR parents "only wanted the best for us."

"There MAY be a bit of that in there, but we CHOSE to be profligate in our spending."

not all of us, and there again, many younger folks are no slouches when it comes to profligate spending.


The following paragraph I agree with:

"The idea that we can get rid of manufacturing jobs, ship them all to China and Mexico, have them ship stuff back to us, and then, after everyone is OUT of work, have anyone left here to buy it who has any money at all is really stupid. People who work in the service industries don't make enough money to buy a lot of retail items. People who USED to work in factory jobs don't have any money to buy anything at all. I am in Ohio and we are hurting here. Where do these companies think they are going to sell their wares??"

[du_grad]

45. Sorry about the post...

Guess I chose the wrong adjectives to describe my thoughts. Obviously not everyone was profligate with spending, but SOMEBODY must be because the savings rates are lousy. Obviously not everyone's parents wanted the best, but MANY parents did.

Glad I hit it right with my last paragraph.

Mea culpa.

[llmart]

41. I'm a 59-year old boomer too.....

born and raised in Cleveland, now living in Michigan. I have been very frugal and saved, saved, saved. But when you are forced to put money into a 401K where there aren't any "safe" investment options and companies you work for go belly up and you are forced to move to another state just to get a job, or you lose money on selling your house because you had to take a job transfer, then your husband loses his job at the age of 60, you can do everything right and still not have increased your standard of living. Please don't lump us all together.

In fact, in my experience it wasn't the boomers our age that were the most prone to upsizing their houses. It was the boomer about 10 years younger than us that did that.

[du_grad]

44. Didn't mean to offend anybody

When I was writing my post I guess I had some specific acquaintances or people in mind. I admit my circle of friends is mostly from the health care industry, which has been much more stable through the years as far as employment goes than many other types of jobs. However, the hospital I worked for DID close their doors completely in 1996 and I was lucky to find something to replace my job at that time, although I went from full to part time (not my choice then) at a much lower wage.

The job I had at that time finally instituted a 401K, but the options were lousy and I rolled the money out of it when I left there in 2000. Even with the booming economy at the time, it never did make much of anything, so yes, I can relate to lousy investment options.

We can't paint all boomers with the same brush any more than we could back in the heady days of the 60's or 70's, when the divide was the hawks and doves. My apologies.

Let's face it - the economy sucks.

[ixion]

2. It's far from over

and, in fact, now it's much, much worse. We didn't solve the problem, we simply increased the debt several trillion dollars.

[OhioChick]

4. You're absolutely right.

K&R

[Skink]

3. This guy is probaly a speculator.

The H bomb of derivatives took him out. The market now looks sane.

[salguine]

5. Everybody who wants to drag the rich out into the street,

chop off their heads and burn down their houses, raise your hand!

[CLANG]

8. We'd better define rich first... n/t

[Hugabear]

10. Don't burn down their houses

There's an awful lot of homeless people that could take shelter in those houses.

[salguine]

14. You're right, I'll bet you could house several hundred people in just one of their houses. Okay,

then, we'll make big piles of all their stuff, and burn that.

[MadinMo]

40. Dr Zhivago

That makes me think of Dr Zhivago when Yuri returns from war after the revolution to find his adoptive parents' home turned into a multifamily dwelling.

I hope we don't come to that. But I agree that the ostentatious show of spending (not necessarily wealth) has been obscene. We can hope it has come to an end.

[sasquatch]

31. Get us some hammers. nails, lumber and steel for the blades and we'll get to making guillotines

[AlphaCentauri]

42. Count de Monet: It is said that the people are revolting.

King Louis XVI: You said it! They stink on ice!

[joe711]

6. How does he know?

Another "revelation?"

Please.

[medeak]

7. really

"multi millionaire" is nothing these days... hell I'm one!

[Leftist Agitator]

19. If you really are a multi-millionaire, then all of your future earningsa should be taxed at 90%

Or more.

[medeak]

22. doesn't work that way

talking about net worth dude. taxed at 37.5%

[Leftist Agitator]

23. Top bracket, huh?

So you make more than $350k per year.

My mistake. You should be taxed at a mere 65%.

You can afford it. Try living off of ~$10k/year (in 2008 dollars) sometime, and then tell me that 65% is too high.

[digidigido]

34. You make $10K per year? What instrument do you play?

[medeak]

39. am sorry you are struggling

and indeed I can relate. Husband has Parkinsons and we can't afford insurance at $4900 a month we were quoted. we're all just one illness away from being homeless. My bills are just bigger than yours and I have 70 employee families that I feel stressed to keep employed. Never did I say anything that I resent paying my taxes.

My only comment was a "multimillionaire" doesn't mean a hill of beans to me as it looks good on paper.

Wish the best for you in this economic climate.....wish for us all.

[Leftist Agitator]

43. Thank you for your kind wishes.

:hi:

I didn't mean to insinuate that you were one of the rich assholes who got us all in this mess. Obviously, if you're here, you don't agree with the poisonous, ethically-bankrupt ideology of the trickle-down ethos.

I hope things improve for you as well.

[Oldtimeralso]

29. 90% was the top tax rate under Eisenhower, and wasn't he a GOP. n/t

[ProfessorGAC]

36. There Were So Many Shelters & Deductions. . .

. . .that nobody actually paid that. When Kennedy dropped the top rate to 50%, a lot of those shelters were reduced, so revenues actually went up!

So, the 90% tax rate is a bit of a red herring, because barely anyone paid that.
The Professor

[awoke_in_2003]

25. Can I borrow 20 bucks?

:)

[Doctor_J]

18. Not Pat Robertson

this is someone else

[cufford]

9. Decades

Decades it took us, to get us to this point. It will therefore likely take decades to change directions and recover, at best.

Decades of middle class, living wage jobs lost in this country. The very jobs that made our economy thrive. No more. There quite simply are not enough living wage jobs in this country to sustain the economy anymore. There hasn't been for years, leading to the subprime markets, etc., and whatever was left to make money on, but this end was always in sight. Even Ross Perot clearly enunciated that back in the 92 election cycle and NAFTA debate:

"You're going to hear a big sucking sound!"

The U.S. economy has been bled dry over the past 16 years since, and even longer in other ways.

But the bottom line of our of our current and near-future economic problems in this country is the lack of living wage jobs in this country. Everything else we're now talking about is but a consequence of that. Everything.

It's the loss of a critical mass of living wage jobs in this country, after decades of traitorous trade policies.

It would take decades to reverse course and rebuild economic infrastructure in this country, if the powers that be even wanted to.

They don't.

[awoke_in_2003]

27. "longer in other ways"

Yep, the starting shot was heralded as Nixon's shining moment- the opening of trade relations with China. It was a death knell to manufacturing. As you say, not enough jobs providing living wages. It really grates on me when I hear asshat claims it is the unions fault, they wanted to much money. I just wish said asshats would take one semester of college economics, so they could finally come to grips with the fact that when people have spending money, they spend it, which benefits every one out there. Of course with the way it is set up now, any spending money we have gets sent overseas. Welcome to DU.

[unkachuck]

11. bye bye boomers....

....perfect timing....

....hey juli, I have an idea....why sit around eating beans and pulling our meat for 15 years waiting for that old proctologist, adam smith, to reappear?....why don't we build a Socialist Market Economy and put ourselves to work, rebuilding our country and our lives?

[Hugabear]

12. If we don't bring back manufacturing jobs, we will NEVER recover

You can only sustain a nation of minimum-wage service workers for so long.

[Triana]

15. I agree. If we don't generate green jobs, rebuild our infrastructure, and start MAKING things again.

..instead of just buying shit made elsewhere, we will NEVER recover.

[elzenmahn]

21. Agreed, and I would add...

...that have you noticed that the supply side advocates and neoconservatives love to talk about the benefits of globalization to the CONSUMER, without ever talking about how people get to be consumers? You need MONEY to be a consumer in the first place, thus the need for GOOD, FAMILY-SUSTAINING, MIDDLE-CLASS jobs.

Funny they never take the "worker" side of the equation into consideration. Hmmmmmm, I wonder why...

[Triana]

30. excellent point - you're right. I hadn't thought about it before but you're

absolutely right. People can't buy stuff if they don't have money because they don't have decent-paying jobs!

[depakid]

13. So we're supposed to listen to CNBC now, are we

and go apocolypto?

[democrat2thecore]

16. MASSIVE Government "New Deal for the 21st Century" - jobs, spending -- classic Keynes.

We need bold leadership.

[CatholicEdHead]

17. A long U shaped recovery

This will have to absorb the U part of the housing market along with the U of the technology bubble at the end of the 90's as it was not allowed to run its course.

[ConcernedCanuk]

26. With all the ill-will created globally by the USA's war-machine,

.
.
.

I suspect the United States is in for a rough ride.

When the bully on the block starts to weaken,

expect reprisals from those he trod on.

[JDPriestly]

33. How right you are. Everybody loves to bully a bully.

[w4rma]

32. Not necessarily. It all depends on the next government. Right-wingers won't see the way out. (nt)

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

35. Yep. Only if we maintain the same asinine policies.

:thumbsup:

[slackmaster]

37. Making random predictions is easy

Anyone can do that, but AFAIK nobody has ever made an economic prediction of that magnitude and turned out to be correct. There are too many unpredictable factors like political upheavals all over the world, weather, etc.