'Human to human' bird-flu deaths fear

[DuctapeFatwa]

The World Health Organisation (WHO) is investigating the first possible instance of "bird flu" being transmitted from person to person.

The WHO has feared that the avian flu virus could integrate with human flu to turn into a deadly and highly infectious strain of influenza that could sweep through the human population, causing a global pandemic.

The WHO's officials confirmed yesterday that two sisters in Vietnam had died of avian flu on 23 January, 11 days after their brother had almost certainly died of the same virus. His wife was also infected but has since recovered.

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/science_medical/story.jsp?story=486947

[Whoa_Nelly]

1. WHO Press Release Jan 27

Unprecedented spread of avian influenza requires broad collaboration
FAO/OIE/WHO call for international assistance


27 January 2004 | GENEVA/ROME/PARIS -- The spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza in several areas in Asia is a threat to human health and a disaster for agricultural production, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) and the World Health Organization (WHO) said in a joint statement today.

Although it has not happened yet, the so-called “bird flu” presents a risk of evolving into an efficient and dangerous human pathogen, the three agencies warned.

<snip>
”We have a brief window of opportunity before us to eliminate that threat,” said Dr. Jacques Diouf, FAO Director-General.

<snip>
The threat from avian influenza is well understood. Unlike SARS, diagnostic tests already exist, as do effective, although costly, antivirals for humans. While it is challenging, research is already well underway on the development of a human vaccine against this strain.

“This is a serious global threat to human health,” said Dr. Lee Jong-wook. “But we have faced several emerging infectious diseases in the past. This time, we face something we can possibly control before it reaches global proportions if we work cooperatively and share needed resources. We must begin this hard, costly work now.”

more...
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/releases/2004/pr7/en/

on edit:

Also...
Avian influenza
Latest information

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/en/

[Snow]

2. Sheesh! Where did that phrase

"deadly and highly infectious strain of influenza that could sweep through the human population, causing a global pandemic." come from? I'll bet that's not the way the WHO said it. Sounds like another reporter engaging in purple prose. Guess it sells newspapers, though.

[depakid]

3. If an H5N1 variant becomes contageous

and spreads like the more familiar influenza strains, there could well be a global pandemic with tens of millions dead. This stuff is very virulent- it seems to kill about 75% of people infected (contrast that with SARS at around 5%). Not a joking matter in the slightest, nor one beyond the realm of reasonable probabilities.

[leesa]

4. Didn't we do this one last year? I seem to remember dead chickens

all over the place. Another distraction by the corporate media whores? This can fill lots of air time and then it will suddenly disappear, AFTER the Crime Family whitewashes their next crises.

[depakid]

5. There were several cases last year

but you may be remembering when the first human case jumped the species barrier in 1997, and all of Hong Kong's chickens had to be destroyed. There was also a pretty bad outbreak in Pennsylvania during the 1980's, where something like 17 million birds were killed (no humans were infected).

[Whoa_Nelly]

6. From the main WHO information page

Human infection with avian influenza viruses: a timeline
(scroll down page)
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2004_01_15/en/

And, FAQs page

Avian influenza frequently asked questions

What is avian influenza?
What are the control measures in birds?
What are the consequences of outbreaks in poultry?
How do outbreaks of avian influenza spread within a country?
How does the disease spread from one country to another?
What is the present situation?
Why so much concern about the current outbreaks?
Is there evidence of human-to-human transmission now?
Does human infection with H5N1 happen often?
Are all of the currently reported outbreaks in birds equally dangerous for humans?
Can a pandemic be averted?
Is it reassuring that so few human cases have occurred?
Are the right control measures being applied?
Apart from H5N1, have other avian influenza viruses ever infected humans?
Is there a vaccine effective against H5N1 in humans?
Are there drugs available for prevention and treatment?

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/avian_faqs/en/

[Snow]

7. And some of the answers go like this....

<clip>
"Public health officials are alarmed by the unprecedented outbreaks in poultry for several reasons. First, most ? but not all ? of the major outbreaks recently reported in Asia have been caused by the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain. There is mounting evidence that this strain has a unique capacity to jump the species barrier and cause severe disease, with high mortality, in humans."
<clip>

Okay, that's kinda worrisome. How often does this situation arise?
<clip>
"Does human infection with H5N1 happen often?
No. Only very rarely. The first documented human infections with the H5N1 avian strain occurred in Hong Kong in 1997. In that first outbreak, 18 persons were hospitalized and 6 of them died. The source of infection in all cases was traced to contact with diseased birds on farms (1 case) and in live poultry markets (17 cases).
The human cases coincided with outbreaks of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in poultry. Very limited human-to-human transmission of the H5N1 strain was documented in health care workers, family members, poultry workers, and workers involved in culling operations. Though H5 antibodies were detected in these groups, indicating infection with the virus, no cases of severe disease occurred as a result. Antibodies were detected in 10% of the poultry workers studied, and in 3% of the cullers"
<clip>

So in other words, people who were in there handling the sick birds got infections - not necessarily illness - 10% of the time. Hmmm.

So is this nasty bug spreading, or could it start spreading fast, given its behavior so far?

<clip>
"Is there evidence of human-to-human transmission now?
No. WHO teams in Viet Nam and Thailand are supporting governments in the design and conduct of studies needed to detect the earliest stage of human-to-human transmission. In parallel activities, laboratories in the WHO Global Influenza Surveillance Network are urgently conducting studies on both human and avian viruses, obtained in the current outbreaks. These studies are also expected to shed some light on the origins and characteristics of the currently circulating H5N1 strain.
Moreover, a new virus adapted for efficient human-to-human transmission would spread very rapidly, and health authorities would know very quickly that a completely new virus had emerged. There is no evidence, to date, that this has occurred."

<clip>
Exactly - if this were a nasty strain with high human infectivity and/or pathogenicity, we would have seen it spread a lot more by now. Of course, mutations can always occur, and given the ugle nature of poultry markets in Asia that can happen with more frequency there than some other places. It also doesn't help that some Asian countries have limited capabilities and enthuisiasm for tracking disease outbreaks. But my original comment stands - the author of the newsclip is engaging in overblown prose, probably to sell papers and/or get his article printed more prominently. You see this with the African hemorrhagic fevers as well, Ebola virus, for example, which AP in particular always describes as "Highly contagious" when it is no such thing.

Flu pandemics are nasty killers that have the potential to wipe out more of humanity than just about anything else, and to do it quickly. A nasty pandemic would unquestionably overwhelm our health systems and cripple world cultures. But this doesn't look like such a bug.

[molok555]

8. Sitting here in Sai Gon,

I really wasn't worried. Still not. All of theses cases are waaaay up north and the government has banned chicken sales here in the city and chicken movement. But...my concern meter just shot up a notch or 2. It's starting to get pretty strange here: no chickens available (although KFC is open again-guess they're KF now. Local fast foodery Chicken Town never even took any days off); eggs becoming scarcer and scarcer. Tried to order some cake with my dinner tonight, only to be told that "They have egg come from chicken. They no good for your health now". People are starting to joke less and worry more now. There was also a recent report that the avian flu may have passed to pig. Gulp.