STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 28 January (#1)

[ozymandius]

Wednesday January 28, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 362
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY...
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 47 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 99 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 311
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 795
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 27, 2004

Dow... 10,609.92 -92.59 (-0.87%)
Nasdaq... 2,116.04 -37.79 (-1.75%)
S&P 500... 1,144.05 -11.32 (-0.98%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.09% -0.05 (-1.28%)
Gold future... 410.10 +3.40 (+0.84%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [email protected]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Ike Iossif (addresses an S&P issue raised yesterday)

Yesterday, the Dow was held up as an example of faltering economic activity, giving way to a less than expected consumer confidence. Frodo raised the issue that the Dow is not a reliable indicator of overall economic performance. This is correct. The Dow is not a leading indicator of economic activity because so few companies are included in the sample size. A more reliable indicator of the myriad economic sectors' performance, as Frodo points out, is the S&P 500. Iossif discusses the technical odds of various scenarios. Although it is a series of if-then statements, it still seems useful in describing where we are today and how we got here.

"Weekly Report for Week Ending 1/23/04"

Last week--in the monthly report--we articulated our reasons for expecting a pullback between current levels and perhaps 3% higher. All of the indicators have turned down after making contact with the top of their range indicating a temporary exhaustion. However, markets with such a strong momentum and liquidity behind them usually do not pullback along with the indicators. In most cases they continue higher for another 1%-3% while the divergences between price and indicators become more pronounced. Of course, nothing is guaranteed in this business, and that is why we need to pay attention to the resistance and support levels shown in the charts below, which should serve as a warning sign of what may be developing.

Notice that short-term, NASDAQ is in a well defined steep and narrow channel as indicated by the two green lines. The top of this channel coincides with the top of the red channel that has controlled price on an intermediate term basis. Ideally, we would like to see price moving up to 2180-2190 level which represents both short and intermediate term resistance on a daily and a weekly basis while the indicators continue to weaken. As of Friday's close, NASDAQ stopped just above channel support--at 2105. If during next week it holds above 2105 and moves higher, that should be confirmation that on a short-term basis price are still controlled by the green channel, and the odds for making it to the 2180-2190 level are still good. If it closes above 2155, the odds will increase significantly. On the other hand, if NASDAQ closes below 2105, it would confirm that price is no longer controlled on a short-term basis by the green channel, and we would expect a further decline to 2070. If 2070 doesn't hold, the next downside target should be 2000. At that point we should have enough of an oversold condition to warrant entering long positions. So, if the 2105 (-/+5 points) level continues to hold, the odds favor higher prices; if it doesn't, the odds favor lower prices.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[54anickel]

2. Good morning Ozy and all - Great toon again!

Heard on Lou Dobbs last night that now even legal work is headed overseas. First manufacturing, then IT, then accounting and analysts, now lawyers. Looks like about all that's left is medical, construction and military. When does the revolution begin?

Seems Wall Street will be pondering the Kerry win more than the Greenspan speech today. From Wall Street contributions, it seems Kerry is the favorite of the Dems. Wish they would define those contributions, might mostly be the ketchup people.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/28/markets/stockswatch/

Wall Street contributors and lots of interesting links off of this page:
http://money.cnn.com/news/specials/election04/

[Frodo]

4. Here's another one.

[54anickel]

18. Ha! Good one. I'm on the same floor. Which staircase will you pick?

[Maeve]

3. Good morning, Ozy!

Found this little story that is not exactly "news" to DUers, but important in that the media aren't all buying it--
The Amazing Disappearing Budget

Bush's 2005 plan will pledge to halve the deficit by 2009 -- but that could be an illusion.
January 26, 2004: 5:39 PM EST
By Mark Gongloff, CNN/Money staff writer
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Like a cowboy-boot wearing David Blaine, President Bush has promised to perform an amazing feat of prestidigitation: he's going to saw the whopping federal budget deficit in half in just five short years.

But some observers warn the budget proposal he will submit Feb. 2, which will include projections of a greatly reduced deficit by 2009, will be little more than smoke and mirrors -- unless he and Congress can show a lot more fiscal discipline than they have recently.

<more>

[ozymandius]

8. Good morning Maeve and everyone!

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

"could be an illusion"??? It is illusory. A word of foreboding: Grover Norquist is already in record explaining how domestic spending is on the increase this year. So the inferred message is: if any cuts are to be made, that's what will get the axe. This tack will eventually consume Social Security. That is the goal, I believe, in reducing the deficit. What is also illusory is the idea that the people who would make these cuts will still be in power in 2009.

[ozymandius]

5. Mortgage Requests Down, Rates Up

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Americans filed fewer mortgage requests last week as a modest uptick in mortgage rates cooled the resurgence in loan demand seen in the prior week, an industry trade group said on Wednesday.

<cut>
The U.S. housing market has been a pillar of the economy, posting three straight years of record sales, in spite of a recession. It has defied repeated forecasts for a slowdown and has continued to exhibit unusual strength in the early days of 2004.

story

[ozymandius]

6. Set to Open Higher, Focus on Fed

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks are set to open slightly higher on Wednesday, lifted by a batch of strong earnings after Tuesday's close and anticipation the Federal Reserve (news - web sites) will leave interest rates unchanged at the end of its policy meeting.

The Federal Reserve's policy-setting arm winds up its two-day meeting on interest rates with a statement due at 2:15 EST.

Wall Street widely expects the Fed will keep interest rate targets unchanged, and reiterate that it does not plan to boost rates "for a considerable period. Low rates could continue to support solid corporate earnings growth.

story

[54anickel]

7. Digital gold?

I don't know what to make of this stuff, my gut says yuk - but my head just spins as I see more and more of this stuff.

Is this good or bad for the gold industy?
How will this effect the ability to manipulate the price?
How does it effect the Washington Agreement?
Is this a scam to profit on FUD?
What happened to gold simply being another commodity?
When do other commodities like pork bellies get into this game?
The new dot.com?

Here's the article:
http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,1528501-6078-0,00.html
Marginal gold miner Durban Roodepoort Deep (DRD, DUR) has spent US$200,000 on buying a 1.4% stake in a loss-making gold web site called GoldMoney.com, the company announced on Monday.
At the current rand/US dollar exchange rates of 7.25, the investment equates to about 1.45 million rand.

The company expects to exercise an option to increase its interest in the web site to 14.3% for $2 million by March 2004, DRD CEO Ian Murray said at a media presentation on the acquisition.

At present GoldMoney.com has 22 shareholders in 14 countries.

more...

Here's the sites "What is" page
http://goldmoney.com/en/what.html

[ozymandius]

9. What's this?

Another dot-com boondoggle? Yuck indeed!

[54anickel]

10. Yep, another way to take advantage of the naive and fearful "investor"

Think I'll start working on my Pork Belly trading site. Those prices should sky rocket when we're all in the soup kitchen lines.
:evilgrin:

[JNelson6563]

11. Good morning Marketeers!

Well it looks to be a fine day shaping up indeed! Jr's gonna cut the deficit in half even though he thinks the road to re-selection is paved with public spending. Mmm hmm. And we got new on-line gold scams to bulk panicky small-time investors. Greenman's going to keep interest rates at historic lows to help his pals in the BFEE and he'll mutter some completely meaningless blather and be declared a genius!

Looks like the very wealthy are assured huge wealth growth for a good long time to come and that the middle and bottom will be forced to pay for it for the next couple generations.

So it's all good friends. Worry not. Massive servitude is assured and we'll all be well taken care of by our benevolent corporate rulers. :toast:

*sigh*

Julie--who can't even take much joy in gold's upswing this mornin'

[54anickel]

12. Currency games in Brazil - buying greenbacks

http://www.aebrazil.com/highlights/2004/jan/28/25.htm

snip>
The monetary authority has purchased dollars since Jan 8 as part of a policy designed to replenish international reserves.

Traders were surprised Tuesday, however, as the Central Bank stepped in to buy greenbacks on two separate occasions when the real had already been losing ground to the dollar.

snip>
The Central Bank is widely believed to be purchasing dollars not only to rebuild foreign reserves but also to secure a competitive exchange rate for exporters.

The real is also expected to remain under pressure this week amid investor jockeying to influence the Ptax average exchange rate.

Friday´s Ptax will be used as the settlement rate for $2.52 billion in non-refinanced government debt coming due Feb 2 as well as for expiring futures contracts.

The higher the Ptax, the more reals debt holders will receive for the upcoming maturity.

[UpInArms]

13. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 86.66 Change +0.38 (+0.44%)

related article

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/01/28/rtr1231004.html

Dollar struggles post BOJ support, FOMC key focus

LONDON, Jan 28 (Reuters) - The dollar struggled below 106 yen on Wednesday, near the previous day's three-year low, as suspected Japanese intervention earlier failed to deter mounting selling pressure on the greenback.

The early focus was on the battle between dollar bears and the Bank of Japan but traders were also awaiting the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting later for clues as to how long U.S. interest rates would remain low.

<snip>

"Japan intervened pretty tactically. It also made clear Japan doesn't want anything from G7 that would let the yen appreciate," said Mary Davis, global currency strategist at CSFB.

"The Fed decision will be no change and the statement will be similar to last time. It will put the dollar under downward pressure as it will confirm rates will stay low for some time."

...more...

Well, it's not like we don't know that Greenspin (love that name Maeve!) is going to say that the economy is improving and jobs are being created without anyone going back to work. You know that all those layoffs and outsourcing is really a positive thing. It makes our economy stronger (?) and frees up all those lives that have been spent toiling for wages so that they can become the investor class (?) and they can then spend their days "retraining" for the work of the future (are we all going to Mars?) making 'Murika a stronger nation while fighting evil dictators around the globe. (Sarcasm now off.)

Attempting to get my head firmly back into reality, I will have to say that the FOMC meeting and the G7 meeting are merely diversions for the traders to talk and say that they are waiting for things to happen. The longterm trend is for the dollar to continue its slide and we shall see how much rhetoric they throw out. The Bush Cabal seems to be losing its grip on the powers that hold the purses and I don't know whose arm Cheney is twisting at the moment (isn't he still in Europe?) for an infusion of cash to keep up the illusion that deficits don't matter.

Hope all you Marketeers have a Great Day!

[54anickel]

15. UIAs, here's one for you. I don't know what to make of it....

All I see is that the dollar is at least serving dual purpose these days. Folks buy them up to devalue their currency, then use them to line the bird cage.

http://www.rbcnews.com/free/20040128124520.shtml

RBC, 28.01.2004, Moscow 12:45:20.At 11:30 Moscow time, the weighted average dollar exchange rate with tomorrow settlements amounted to RUR28.49, driving the official dollar rate down by RUR0.02. Commercial bank dealers point to a large trading volume that totaled over $1.2bn after the first hour and a half of trading. According to experts, this development is due to the fact that commercial banks have recently accumulated a large volume of dollar assets. Analysts indicate that recently commercial banks have sold a small amount of dollars owing to a deficit of dollars. Today the situation turned abruptly about, and banks now have no problems with getting rid of dollar reserves. The trading volume is likely to result in hitting all records on the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange (MICEX) today. Additionally, traders reported that the Central Bank was now buying dollars at RUR28.4850, i.e. the level at which all deals were being closed as of 11:30 Moscow time.

[UpInArms]

19. I really don't have an inside

track on any of this, but it sounds like they try to "run up" the dollar in value, then off-load their holdings (minimizing the losses) at a time when the dollar seems to have a downward trend.

There may be more political tinkering going on (isn't Powell over there) and this might have more to do with muscle-flexing on Putin's part.

[54anickel]

23. Thanks. I found it curious. I had no idea how much "politicing" and

"game playing" was done in the currency markets until I found DU and the SMW. And here I used to think currency values were based on fundamentals and principles. Silly me. :silly:

[Maeve]

14. Durable goods orders flat

U.S. demand for big-ticket manufactured goods unexpectedly weak in December.
January 28, 2004: 8:33 AM EST
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New orders for long-lasting U.S. goods were unchanged in December, the government said Wednesday in a weaker-than-expected report raising questions about the strength of the manufacturing recovery.

The Commerce Department said orders were flat in December after falling a revised 2.3 percent the previous month. Analysts had been expecting a solid increase of 2 percent.

A broad range of categories suffered from weaker demand. Non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft orders -- seen as a proxy for business spending -- fell 0.4 percent.

More

[JNelson6563]

16. That could mean trouble

Especially when coupled with the 1000 jobs created in December fact.

Not a very attractive picture.

Julie

[Maeve]

17. Only other thing on the economic calendar today

Besides the Word From Greenspin, is new home sales for December. Previous reading was 1082K, expected to rise to 1100-1125K.

BTW...only ozy seems to have noticed that I'm being followed by a ghost, now.

[54anickel]

20. I did notice that yesterday. I didn't quite know if congratulations or

condolences were in order.

[ozymandius]

21. I just thought that's the uniform Skinner makes you wear. nt

[JNelson6563]

22. I figured it was to keep the raucus SWT in line

you know how rowdy some Marketeers get and all. I didn't think it polite to mention it in front of company. ;-)


Julie

[UpInArms]

25. I thought that something was different

and I wondered if you were doing you hair different, but upon closer examination, I found that there definitely was a "ghost" :)

Does this mean you will be making certain that we all wear mini-skirts?

Congrats! :toast:

[Maeve]

26. No, but I will insist you keep your socks pulled up

Wouldn't want to have to repremand a friend!
:D

[Maeve]

29. Home sales were down, not up

Surprise 5.1% fall
Sales of new homes in the U.S. down for fourth straight month, defying forecasts for a gain.
January 28, 2004: 10:57 AM EST
By Mark Gongloff, CNN/Money Staff Writer
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The pace of new home sales in the United States slowed for the fourth straight month in December, the government said Wednesday, missing Wall Street expectations for a gain.

The Commerce Department said the pace of new single-family home sales fell 5.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.06 million units from a revised rate of 1.12 million units in November. Economists, on average, expected a pace of 1.1 million units, according to Briefing.com.

[54anickel]

30. Silly question -

Didn't we just see record new housing starts reported?
Is it possible contractors are getting ahead of the market again like back in the, what was it, 80s? Or am I reading too much into these monthly numbers?

[Frodo]

31. Probably.

"Starts" "permits" and "sales" are all different numbers that interact differently with changing market conditions.

Add the unexpected increase in resale homes to the unexpected decrease in new home sales (a much smaller adjustment since new homes only make up a small fraction of total sales), and what we are probably seeing is the gyrations across the peak of the market. It's essentially still at record highs (historically) and may be at the end of that run or it could have several months yet to go. Any way you slice it... it isn't going to go up much from here.

[ozymandius]

33. Good question. Starts do not necessarily equate as sales.

It has happened here in Atlanta. Some builders start projects based on projections that are three years old. Many have been stuck by using outdated info. I can only think of one builder in Atlanta who starts construction after updating the information of projected occupancy rates, growth patterns, etc.

The number of under-occupancy new builds is of concern in the downtown Atlanta area. For people looking to buy, many deals can be found.

[Maeve]

24. 9:46 and the wheel is spinning, the balls are in play

Dow 10,630.81 +20.89 (+0.20%)
Nasdaq 2,124.24 +8.20 (+0.39%)
S&P 500 1,147.88 +3.84 (+0.34%)
10-Yr Bond 4.090% +0.003

[Maeve]

27. 10:34 and higher

Little off peak, but..

Dow 10,649.77 +39.85 (+0.38%)
Nasdaq 2,126.25 +10.21 (+0.48%)
S&P 500 1,148.00 +3.95 (+0.35%)
10-Yr Bond 4.070% -0.017

[54anickel]

28. Interesting, the "logic" that drives the market up.

Living in the past rather than looking to the future?

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/01/28/rtr1231406.html

Positive earnings helped offset a weaker-than-expected reading on durable goods orders. New orders for long-lasting U.S. goods were unchanged in December, in a report that raised questions about the strength of the manufacturing recovery.

"The market's higher because of earnings news. The economic data wasn't great, with durable goods coming in flat as opposed to most folks looking for a rise," said John Caldwell, chief investment strategist at McDonald Financial Corp.

However, "we got a number of good solid earnings reports in a lot of different industries, and those companies are helping lift the broader market," Caldwell said.

[ozymandius]

32. 1:16 figures

Gotta run Marketeers! Work/job search calls. :hi:


Dow 10,625.77 +15.85 (+0.15%)
Nasdaq 2,117.89 +1.85 (+0.09%)
S&P 500 1,147.08 +3.04 (+0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 4.037% -0.050

[UpInArms]

34. 2:26 pm and it looks like

Greenspin's bucket has a hole in it


Dow 10,552.00 -57.92 (-0.55%)
Nasdaq 2,101.76 -14.28 (-0.67%)
S&P 500 1,137.66 -6.39 (-0.56%)
10-Yr Bond 4.058% -0.029

[Frodo]

35. Yep. Fell off a cliff.

I'm glad there isn't anyone riding the market up and down based on whether I phrase my words in a particular way.

This guy gets indigestion and people lose millions.

[JNelson6563]

37. 2:47 looking bad

Kerry wins NH--Markets crash.


Dow 10,498.29 -111.63 (-1.05%)
Nasdaq 2,091.92 -24.12 (-1.14%)
S&P 500 1,132.55 -11.50 (-1.00%)
10-Yr Bond 4.253% +0.166


haha Just kiddin', a little good natured fun from a Dean supporter. I am sorry to see that Tresuries rally turn around. Ouch.

Julie

[54anickel]

38. Pundits are especially quiet. Anyone able to find any "news" for reason?

[54anickel]

39. Never mind, it really was Greenspin

Stocks Decline After Fed Alludes to Future Rate Changes

http://www.quicken.com/investments/news_center/story/?story=NewsStory/dowJones/20040128/ON200401281435001467.var&column=P0DST

[Frodo]

41. Yep. And wait until Gold opens back up (opens down that is) in 15min.

The dollar should take off like a shot.

Poor old Junker isn't going to make his January predictions.

[UpInArms]

43. dollar doing its take off move

Last trade 87.04 Change +0.76 (+0.88%)

(edited for spulling)

[54anickel]

46. That's right! I forgot, this is the end of the month already.

Oh well, consider it a blue light special I guess.

[54anickel]

47. Ker-plunk

[KoKo]

42. Scratching my head over that one! Didn't see how the statement differed.

:shrug: Even parsing it carefully twice it didn't sound to me like he was "hinting" at a change.

Up is Down and Down is Up.....and on and on. :crazy:

[Frodo]

44. This was supposed to be the "non-hint-hint"

They've spent the last few months trying to figure out how to say "our next move is 'up', but now immediately" without causing everyone to panic. But they couldn't continue to use the same language without the dollar continuing to weaken.

[54anickel]

51. He can always say...

"Dean made me do it". :evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

40. a side of blather for you?

2:30PM: The Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged at 1.0%, yet changed the wording of the directive to no longer say "considerable period of time"... Additionally, "probability of an unwelcome fall in inflation has diminished in recent months and now appears almost equal to that of a rise in inflation"... The bond market has taken the policy dirrective as reflecting a change in the bias slant of the committee towards a possibly sooner tightening than had been previously anticipated by the market...

Accordingly, the bond market got slammed after the release of the announcement, with the long-term rates especially hard-hit... The pullback in bond yields has created valuation concerns in the stock market, which has also slipped noticeably lower....

Below please find the complete statement:"The Committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing important ongoing support to economic activity. The evidence accumulated over the intermeeting period confirms that output is expanding briskly. Although new hiring remains subdued, other indicators suggest an improvement in the labor market. Increases in core consumer prices are muted and expected to remain low. The Committee perceives that the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal. The probability of an unwelcome fall in inflation has diminished in recent months and now appears almost equal to that of a rise in inflation. With inflation quite low and resource use slack, the Committee believes that it can be patient in removing its policy accommodation.

[54anickel]

45. Wonder if this has anything to do with his recent rhetoric on UE.

His most recent statements seem to attempt to diminish the concern on the lagging job market.

Sort of akin to, "The bus is leaving- oh, the UE, no worries, they'll catch up later by cab - always have".

Problem is, none of the UE have got the cab fare this time.

[54anickel]

50. Guess the BoJ can keep a couple "yennies" in their pockets until

the end of next week then.

[TrogL]

52. wot the [moderated] does that mean?

The Committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance ...

but then there's the bad news...

new hiring...subdued, ... [i]ncreases in core consumer prices are muted and expected to remain low ... resource use slack

and some lovely waffling ...

... the upside and downside risks ... [t&393he probability of an unwelcome fall in inflation has diminished in recent months and now appears almost equal to that of a rise in inflation

:wtf: is that supposed to actually accomplish?

[54anickel]

36. Notes on Altria Group rally

See, layoffs are good. Kraft closes plants, folks take up smoking to settle nerves, all is good.
:evilgrin:

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/01/28/rtr1231909.html
Altria Group Inc. (nyse: MO - news - people) also rallied, after the food and tobacco company reported higher quarterly earnings, helped by improved results at its domestic tobacco unit.

Shares of Altria, whose brands include Marlboro cigarettes and Kraft foods, rose 69 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $55.69 and ranked among the blue-chip Dow's top percentage gainers.

[KoKo]

48. 3:25 and Nasdaq Bouncing....Bouncing Down.........

Dow 10,490.15 -119.77 (-1.13%)
Nasdaq 2,086.35 -29.69 (-1.40%)
S&P 500 1,131.72 -12.33 (-1.08%)
10-Yr Bond 4.195% +0.108
NYSE Volume 1,502,877,000

[54anickel]

49. Japan says to cautiously consider gold in reserves

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/01/28/rtr1231050.html

TOKYO, Jan 28 (Reuters) - Japanese Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said on Wednesday he wanted to carefully consider whether to change the weighting of gold in Japan's foreign reserves.

Tanigaki told a parliamentary committee he thought it necessary to take a standpoint of diversifying assets in Japan's foreign reserves, which are mostly made up of dollar-denominated assets.

more...

[TrogL]

56. In other words, a gold dump?

Didn't Britain dump about a year ago?

I promise I won't swat any goldbugs, at least today.

[54anickel]

57. Dump or buy? Depends on how you read it, which is what he wanted.

On edit:
Think the gold traders thought buy, at least that would explain the early rally in gold, before Greenspin spoke and caused the dollar to rally. Wishful thinking perhaps.

[JNelson6563]

53. Truly hideous showing

Dow 10,468.37 -141.55 (-1.33%)
Nasdaq 2,077.37 -38.67 (-1.83%)
S&P 500 1,128.48 -15.57 (-1.36%)
10-Yr Bond 4.195% +0.108

Blood everywhere. Ouch.

Julie

[54anickel]

54. Hopefully a rally tomorrow...

Otherwise we can't have the usual Friday profit-taking.

Hasta la Vista :hi:

[Frodo]

55. I'd actually expect Friday to be "the big day"

When the GDP numbers come out.

The expected number has steadily risen from the low 4's to the mid 4's to somewhere between 5% and 5.25%. If the number BEATS that substantially, we're off to the races again. If it comes in at 3.5% (which would actually be an historically "solid" number) we're going to see that 5% correction over a relatively short time frame.

From a political standpoint? Bill Clinton won re-election (handily) with a GDP number of 3.6% for 1996 (after 2.7% the year before) - slightly beating inflation numbers of 2.9% and 2.8% respectively and unemployment at 5.6%

If we actually see 4.5%-5% growth over the 12 months leading to the election with unemployment in that same 5.6%-5.8% range and inflation lower than 2%... it's going to be hard to run on the economy.