Tropical Depression One-E Forms In Pacific

[arcos]

Source: AP

MIAMI (AP) -- The National Hurricane Center says a tropical depression has formed off the coast of Costa Rica, just days before the Atlantic Hurricane Season officially begins.

Senior hurricane specialist James Franklin says the depression is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm within the next 24 hours as it approaches the coast of Nicaragua.

<snip>



Read more: http://www.cfnews13.com/Weather/HurricaneCenter/2008/5/28/tropical_depression_onee_forms_in_pacific.html

---

Full NHC Advisory:

...Tropical depression forms near Costa Rica...expected to bring
heavy rains to portions of Central America...

At 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...the government of Costa Rica has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for the Pacific coast of Costa Rica. A
Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.


Tropical storm conditions are also expected to spread across the
Pacific coast of Nicaragua during the next 24 hours.


For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.


At 800 PM PDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Depression One-E was
located near latitude 10.2 north...longitude 86.5 west or about 105
miles...165 km...west-northwest of Cabo blanco Costa Rica and about
130 miles...210 km...south of managua Nicaragua.


The depression is moving toward the north near 3 mph. A turn to the
north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected over
the next 24 to 36 hours. On the forecast track...the center of the
depression will be very close to the coasts of Costa Rica and
Nicaragua during the next day or so.


Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph...45 km/hr...with higher
gusts. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm as it
approaches the coast.


Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb...29.62 inches.


The depression is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 10
to 15 inches over portions of Central America from Costa Rica
northwestward through portions of Nicaragua...Honduras...El
Salvador...and Guatemala. Isolated maximum storm total amounts of
20 inches are possible in areas of higher terrain. These rains may
produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.


Repeating the 800 PM PDT position...10.2 N...86.5 W. Movement
toward...north near 3 mph. Maximum sustained winds...30 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1003 mb.


An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 1100 PM PDT followed by the next complete advisory at 200
am PDT.


$$
Forecaster Franklin/Rhome

[merh]

1. .

x(

[Mojorabbit]

2. This model

show something in florida in four or five days? Still too far out to be accurate. I hope we get a nice rain and that is all. We really need it.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_pcp_l_loop.shtml

[MercutioATC]

3. That's about as far south as you'll ever see one form. (in the northern hemisphere)

Hurricanes virtually never form within 10 degrees of the equator...this one's at 10.2

[Gman]

4. This had been expected by the GFS model to form around Yucatan

as of last Saturday and Sunday. The GFS missed it by a few hundred miles or less.

[arcos]

5. It has been upgraded, and it is now tropical storm Alma...

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 291429
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALMA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
800 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2008

...FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2008 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON
FORMS NEAR THE WEST COAST OF NICARAGUA...TORRENTIAL RAINS EXPECTED
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA NORTHWESTWARD TO EL SALVADOR. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 55
MILES... 85 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA AND ABOUT 220
MILES ...355 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR.

ALMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ALMA WILL REACH THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TONIGHT AND OVER
THE COASTS OF HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST BEFORE ALMA MOVES INLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

ALMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...EL
SALVADOR...AND GUATEMALA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...11.5 N...86.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP1+shtml/291429.shtml?

[alfredo]

6. Terrible flooding is expected.

[slackmaster]

7. NOAA's Pacific Floater 1 pic is pretty impressive

[uppityperson]

8. k&r