STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday May 9

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday May 9, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 257
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2665 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2390 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2681
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES &
MARKETS INDICATORS>
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON May 8, 2008

Dow... 12,866.78 +52.43 (+0.41%)
Nasdaq... 2,451.24 +12.75 (+0.52%)
S&P 500... 1,397.68 +5.11 (+0.37%)
Gold future... 882.10 +10.90 (+1.24%)
30-Year Bond 4.56% -0.06 (-1.25%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.81% -0.06 (-1.60%)






GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [email protected]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp: G-7 Central Bankers Stymied by "Crude Oil Vigilantes"

BY GARY DORSCH

The “Group of Seven” central bankers, who control the money spigots in 2/3’s of the world’s economy, huddled with their colleagues from China and Russia behind closed doors in Basel, Switzerland this week, haunted by the “Crude Oil Vigilantes,” who threaten to unravel G-7 schemes to rescue troubled global banks. Earlier today, the price of West Texas Sweet traded as high as $124/barrel, doubling from a year ago, and guiding Chicago Corn futures to all-time highs.

European Central Bank chief, Jean Trichet, chaired a meeting of central bankers from the “Group of 10” industrialized nations on May 5th and acknowledged that, “Inflation risks are significant under the influence of oil and energy price increases, commodity price increases more generally, and food and agricultural products. This is perceived in all economies without exception. This is no time for complacency for central banks in any respect,” he warned.

.....

US President George Bush, whose approval rating has sunk to an all-time low of 28% in recent polls, said on April 29th there was no “magic wand” to bring down record-high fuel prices, with angry Americans facing $3.65 a gallon for gasoline and soaring grocery bills. “I firmly believe that, you know, if there was a magic wand to wave, I’d be waving it, of course. I’ve repeatedly submitted proposals to help address these problems, yet time after time Congress chose to block them,” he argued.

Yet it’s increasingly obvious to most casual observers that the biggest culprit behind the historic rally in crude oil is the Bush administration itself, which has put enormous political pressure on the Federal Reserve to slash the federal funds rate by 325-basis points to 2%, and crushed the value of the US dollar in the process. That’s unleashed the “crude oil vigilantes,” who have jacked-up “black gold” by $55 per barrel since the Fed’s rate cutting spree began last August.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[poppysgal]

2. How high will it go?

This is becoming more alarming everyday.:scared:

[UpInArms]

13. I should've bought that horse

:scared:

[poppysgal]

17. yep,

we could have found you a step-stool.:toast:

[UpInArms]

19. and we could have ridden "double"

:donut:

[AnneD]

47. Morning Marketeers....

:donut: and lurkers. I hate to mess with you guys fantasy, but the cost to feed your horse is not as cheap as you think.....And let me tell you about vets-you think your co pay and deductible now? My brother could have sent another kid through an Ivy League school for what he pays for Cash's (his beloved horse)vet bill. You are better off getting a bike.

Well, I went to some friend's CD release party at our fav local Irish Pub McGonigel's Mucky Duck. The group (Clandestine) disbanded after their last album about 8-9 years ago. The lead singer is my best friend's daughter that I have known since she was in middle school. It was like a family reunion. My friends had a little more gray hair, the infants were now in elementary school and the 8 year olds like mine are now graduating high school. I was talking with a more philosophical friend of mine, that this was like some cosmic karmic class reunion or family picnic. He laughed but I continued with my train of thought. Most of these folks are the same ones that I see at the Renaissance Festival and at Science Fiction Conventions. I told him that I am convienced the Mucky Duck was an eddy in the river of time and certain ones of us gravitate to these eddies to catch up and exchange ideas and energy. In a city as large, diverse, and mobile as Houston, that is a feat in and of its self. We drank another pint. One other thing that we noticed was that all of us were possible old souls and have always been mature beyond our age. We did what we need to do for an income but had life long passions that truly defined us.It was a good time spent with very old friends-catching up on things before time flings us out into water again. Or perhaps it was just the Guinness talking.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[htuttle]

36. If it weren't for my horse, I wouldn't have spent that year in college

:D

[newfie11]

48. Hey I have 4 horses and a mule I'll sell you.

Of course you have to come get them (SW Nebraska panhandle).

[ozymandius]

3. Today's Report

08:30 Trade Balance Mar
Briefing.com -$59.0B
Consensus -$61.3B
Prior -$62.3B

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

29. U.S. March trade deficit falls to $58.2B vs. $61.0B expected

16. U.S. March real trade gap lowest since Nov. 2003
8:31 AM ET, May 09, 2008

17. U.S. imported oil price record $89.85, but demand down 9%
8:31 AM ET, May 09, 2008

18. U.S. March trade deficit with China lowest in 2 years
8:31 AM ET, May 09, 2008

19. U.S. March trade figures imply upward revision to 1Q GDP
8:31 AM ET, May 09, 2008

20. U.S. March imports down 2.9%; exports down 1.7%
8:31 AM ET, May 09, 2008

21. U.S. Feb. trade deficit revised $61.7B vs. $62.3B
8:31 AM ET, May 09, 2008

22. U.S. March trade deficit falls to $58.2B vs. $61.0B expected
8:31 AM ET, May 09, 2008

[ozymandius]

4. Oil surpasses $125 per barrel ahead of US driving season

Oil prices surged past $125 per barrel Friday on the eve of the U.S. driving season as a weakening U.S. dollar drove investors to snap up commodities.

Light, sweet crude for June delivery rose as high as $125.12 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at midday before falling back to $124.86 by early afternoon in Europe.

On Thursday, the contract rose to a record close of $123.69 a barrel.

In London, Brent crude contracts also hit record highs before slipping and traded up $1.13 on the day at $123.97 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange. Earlier Friday, Brent had reached $124.25 before falling back.

.....

Investors view commodities such as oil as a hedge against inflation, and some analysts think the dollar's protracted decline is the main reason behind oil prices doubling from a year ago. Also, a weaker dollar makes oil cheaper to investors overseas.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

6. So who wants to venture into the pool?

When will oil reach $150/bbl either in intra-day trading or close?

I am going to amend my prediction. When wholesale gasoline pries reach the new highs for August delivery, pushing retail prices near $4.50/gal, the price of crude will drop. Mainly I feel this is the case because of the psychological shock of it and the subsequent outrage.

So I predict $150/bbl will be reached by Thursday, August 7th. That's almost three weeks before the Labor Day weekend.

Of course, all bets are off if military hostilities occur near a major oil production/transport hub.

[Hugin]

22. Like I said earlier in the week.

It's going to happen earlier... (IMHO, of course).

Somebody picked June 20th, I'll have to go back and see who that was... But, since we're
speculating here, I'll say June 6th for sentimental (mostly mental) reasons.


*snaps on rubber swimming cap*

[happyslug]

53. I hate to disagree, but I suspect price will peak around memorial day

Memorial Day is the traditional time of the year for the highest prices for Gasoline. The reason for this is the short time period between the end of the Northern Heating season (Generally the end of April) and the beginning of the summer Driving Season (June 1). Because Refineries keep on producing home heating oil till the beginning of April (based on the situation of a late cold spell, and people buying oil for hot water during the summer). Thus you have about 1 month for the refineries to switch from Home Heating oil to Gasoline. In the fall when the opposite situation occurs, you have a much longer time frame. People reduce driving with the end of Summer (Labor Day) but most people wait till November to buy their first heat for the Winter. You thus have about 2 1/2 months for the change over, compared to the approximate one month in the Spring. That month to month and a half difference, puts a greater demand on gasoline in the Spring, then in any other time of the year. Starting in June, the situation switches and Gasoline IN NORMAL YEARS, drop in price all summer long.

Now, the pressure over the last few years has been up, not stable, but the pressure on Gasoline prices right now is a combination of this upward push AND the traditional push for the highest price at this time of the year. This is complicated by the fact people may (and probably will) cut back summer driving do to the high price of Gasoline (In 2007, total miles driver DROPPED for the first time only .4%, not even a whole percentage point but it did drop, and the reason was the high price of gasoline). That will reduce the pressure on the demand side for Gasoline. How much no one knows (A lot of people are already committed to a car based vacation this year, ho many will opt for a non-car base vacation i.e. on one of the long distance bike trails?).

Thus I believe prices will stabilize after Memorial Day. I suspect it will still go up, but not at the rate it has been (again barring a major hurricane in the Gulf, war in Nigeria or the Middle East, or any other similar disaster such as the collapse of the US Economy). I see oil hitting its high price during the summer, but not $150 this year UNLESS IT HITS $150 a barrel by June 1st. Remember around Christmas oil as about $100 a barrel, then stabilize for a few months then started to go up in March. I see the same for the Summer, stabilization till the fall. A slight price push all summer long, but overall stable prices. Thus oil will NOT go to $150 this summer unless it does so by June 1st, this fall a different subject, but not this summer.

The Pittsburgh to DC bike trail (Exclusive most of the way on its own right of way):
http://www.atatrail.org/
You can actually get ot Weirton WV on the Ohio. It is complete and on its own right of way between McKeesport (on the Monongahela River, Upstream and South of Pittsburgh) to DC. Shares a Road to Pittsburgh Proper, and shares a road for about a mile if you take the Montour Bike trail around the Southern Suburbs of Pittsburgh to connect to Panhandle Trail to Weirton WV). I recommend the trial between McKeesport and DC, 318 miles of exclusive bike trail (With Horses permitted in parts).

[AnneD]

59. That what a pool is....

everyone picks a date and not everyone wins the pot.

And if I am not mistaken, seasonal price increases have been ocurring earlier and earlier. In times past-you could rely on price changes due to blend changes to a degree-but that has been rapidly changing due to the razor thin excess oil available on the market and speculation. A hurricane, an out break of civil war or factional violence in any number of places in the world, or another Katrina or Rita in the gulf will cause a wild swing in prices. So actually one guess is as valid as the next. I'm sticking by my first hurricane in the Gulf guess.

Edited to add that I think that...if it follows what happened after the oil embargo of the 70's gas will drop once again. Maybe not to the same levels as the 90's but they will drop. If I've learned one thing...prices rise, but they fall too.

[happyslug]

92. The problem in the 1970s was three "elephant" Fields came on line.

And none of the three were in an OPEC nation (Saudi Arabia, Iran and Kuwait had "Elephants" but they all came into production prior to 1970). These three Fields, the North Slope of Alaska, the North Sea and one in Siberia ended OPEC control over production. I remember the early 1980s as Britain tried to gain Market Share by constantly selling oil at lower and lower prices. It hurt Texas which saw North Sea oil as its main Competitor (I was living in Texas at that time). Other members of OPEC followed Britain's lead forcing the House of Saud to lower its price and cutting its production to keep up price. Finally about 1984 (and that is from memory, I can be off a few years). Saudi Arabia then decided enough was enough and dropped its price to below the cost of production of Britain. Prime Minster Thacher became scared, he economic polity in Britain was dependent on revenue from the North sea, and this would END that source of Revenue. About a week later Saudi Arabia raised its prices. Thacher having seen the light, matched the increase. That ended the price drop till the Asia Flu of 1997 saw a tremendous drop in far east Asia oil use which lead to the low prices of the late 1990s.

The problem is, today, 2008, the fundamentals are different. All three of the "Elephants" mentioned above have peaked and in decline. No such Elephants have been found since the 1960s (When those three were found). The fields that have been found do NOT equal the decline in world wide oil production. Thus there is a Fundamental shortage oil just like there was a glut of oil in the late 1980s and into the 1990s. There is no prospect of any field coming on line that comes close to replacing the above loses (And the drop in production of other countries). Thus the push is upward.

As to a hurricane, if it is near to Louisiana even I have to say all bets all off. Any substantial drop in oil production anywhere in the world will drop oil production below its replacement level. At that point the only way to control price is to control demand (i.e. people quit driving),

Now prices can drop, but if the fundamentals stay the same, such drops in price will NOT last long (Like price increases in the 1980s and 1990s, such increases did NOT last long given the fundamentals of that time period). Even the Asian Flu bug price drop only lasted about a year before prices started to go back to normal (Remember Clinton being blamed for the raise of oil prices in the 2000 election?).

Thus I do not see any long term price drops, I do foresee short term price drops, but no long term drop in price. We may see such a drop over the summer if demand for oil drops significantly, but that will end with the need for oil for heating this fall.

My point is the price will NOT drop for any length of time or significance amount unless one of two things occur. First someone finds and put into production an oil field the size of the North Slope or the North Sea. The problem with this is none are in line, most of the world has been explode so it is unlikely one still exist that has NOT been found. Yes a very unlikely scenario but possible. The second is a drastic cut in usage. The biggest single user of Oil is the US, thus it is the place where such a drop in usage is most likely. The problem is HOW? Europe and Japan can cut back by relying on their mass transit and rail transit systems. The US, except for certain locations like New York City, has no real mass transit, and except for the Northeast has no effective Passenger Rail system. Bicycles are on option, but only if people can no longer afford Gasoline to get to work, but still has to get to work. Thus my opinion is that the price of Gasoline will go up till a sizable percentage of Americans (i.e. about 10%) can no longer drive their cars to work. Once they spent their last cent on Gasoline and can NOT pay anymore the price will stabilize. The Economy will take a tumble for most of the jobs I see people quiting do to lack of an ability to buy gasoline are in suburbia. That is where most jobs have been created in the last 30 years, and almost all of those jobs require a car for employees to get to.

I give a personal example, my father was a letter Carrier from the 1950s till the 1980s. In the 1950s and 1960s he was given a Bus Pass by the Post Office to take the bus to his route and drop off the mail. In the early 1970s he was given a car to do the same job (It technically was faster). In the late 1970s he opt for a job in Downtown Pittsburgh where he could take the Streetcar to work. Notice he had access to mass transit and his employer helped him use it. Now you will also notice the change in the 1970s, more and more employers assumed people had cars and started to expect them to drive. His Children all work in Suburbia (except myself) and all have to drive to work. I have one sister who takes the bus to her suburban job, but she adds an hour to her commute both ways, for the privilege of NOT have to drive to work. One Sister is going to Collage, but the Collage has moved from its Downtown location to Suburbia, making it harder to get to by mass transit while making easier if you have a car (It is my old Collage, where I went to undergraduate school and graduated without ever having to go out to the Suburban School, I then did NOT need a car to go to School but my sister needs one).

The changes over the last 50 years (My Father talked about the time he took an old inner-urban Streetcar to the local racetrack in the 1940s, a racetrack now only reachable by car) the use of mass transit has died out and suburbia, build on access to a car and parking for that car, has come to dominate our society. That has to be undone but the build up over the last 50-60 years is hard to stop and will not stop until about 10% of the population who are driving now, can no longer drive to work. People will continue the way they have been going until it is clear that is no longer possible and I do NOT see that coming clear until 10% of today's driving population can no longer AFFORD to drive. Thus, until the price of Gasoline gets so high that people have to stop driving do to an inability to buy gasoline the price of oil and gasoline will go up and up. You will see short periods of drop in prices but until people adjust to using a lot less oil in their daily lives such price drops will be short.

[ozymandius]

99. Quite correct: "Thus I do not see any long term price drops, I do foresee short term price drops"

My point-of-view is very hard line on this: Cheap oil is history.

Regarding the anecdote about how suburbia changed our transportation habits: the developing world has not observed our poor example. Amazing how notions of "progress" can be totally estranged from the thought process.

[ozymandius]

98. Well I wholly agree with your post with a couple of exceptions.

In the true sense of supply-and-demand this is how it should work. This is how it has worked for decades. (It was appreciated that you used all caps in emphasizing 'IN NORMAL YEARS'. Very apropos.)

My contention is that the markets have become totally unhinged from the rules of supply and demand for many recent years. Oil futures trading has been transformed by the speculative buying in the style of Enron. Speculative buying of oil futures has ridden very hard on the 'get rich quick' schemes that have become common parasites since the Internet gave us day trading from home.

Key to the supply/demand unhinging is the influence of large investment firms that have turned to petroleum and petroleum derivatives as investment vehicles. We have posted the information too often here at the SMW that investment banks (name any and you've named a culprit) have been buying oil futures, pinned to a delivery date, and turning a quick profit on the deal. It's a guaranteed return on investment. More than selling specialized widgets. This is like selling bedrock property when everywhere else is swamp and sand.

Instability has become the new standard operation for the petroleum markets. It's gone beyond transports, everyday driving and heating. It's now bled into food in the form of ethanol (production of fuel from food, in all its stupidity) and a macro view of agronomics. Compute the transportation cost of petrol into food, for example. The cost of food production is impacted the same way.

Fossil fuels are realizing huge growth potential overseas where the dollar is ersatz currency when other nations would (truthfully, honestly) prefer the strength and stability of either the euro, dinar or yen. The Federal Reserve's has seemingly dropped any concern over price inflation in its FOMC deliberations.

You mention the transition phase of converting refineries over to seasonal product production. Right with you there. We (America),in addition, lack the capacity to produce enough fuel to meet demand, and thus stabilize prices, during this transition phase. That is a national embarrassment. However shame is not a quality that this industry has ever demonstrated. So much the pity, for the rest of us.

So in sum: demand has left the U.S. for other parts of the world. Demand here will slow only marginally as necessity drives consumption. Speculation has replaced fair market value.

That is why my predicted date is stated thus: Thursday, August 7th is when that Rubicon will be crossed and likely without much fanfare. We will mostly be numbed by it when it happens, except for those who care about the fundamentals. When that price per barrel is reflected at the pump, will the rest of the world care. (How 'bout that - another prediction!) :hi:

[Tansy_Gold]

107. "We will mostly be numbed by it."

Yes, like victims of domestic violence.

We can't get out of the cycle of abuse, so we are shocked each time it escalates, but then we just get used to it. The first slap is a shock, but the second is less so, and the twentieth or fiftieth is . . . . nothing.

The first punch is a shock, but the second is less so, and the twentieth or fiftieth is . . . expected.

The first kick in the ribs is a shock, but the second is less so, and the twentieth or fiftieth is . . . normal.

The question in dealing with victims of domestic violence is not what makes them stay and take the abuse -- can't afford to leave, can't find a shelter, can't take the kids, he threatened to hurt the dog, etc., etc., etc. -- but rather what finally puts them over the edge to the point where none of the old excuses work any more.

Why do we continue to take the abuse at the gas pump? Because we can't quit going to work, because the kids have to go to soccer practice, because I have to get out of the house a couple days a week or go stir crazy. Whatever the excuse is, it works -- for now.

But each of us will reach a point -- IF we reach a point at all -- where something has to change. We have to break the cycle of abuse, whether it means giving up social activities that require a lot of driving, quitting a high paying job for a lower paying one closer to home or accessible by public transit, adapting to the inconvenience of a car pool, coordinating our shopping so we only go once a week instead of once a day, selling the 8 mpg SUV at a tremendous loss in exchange for a 30 mpg hybrid.

Years ago, two friends of mine were in abusive marriages at about the same time. One put up with it for years and years -- being called names, being ordered to wait on her husband hand and foot, working long hours at a job she hated because he was too "sensitive" to deal with the pressures of a real job. Finally, he died, and after the initial grief and shock, she found herself free for the first time in almost 30 years. Free of demands and poverty and a feeling of worthlessness. "I feel so guilty," she wrote to me, "but I'm so glad he's gone. I wish I had had the strength to leave him years ago. What a waste those years have been and I can never get them back."

The other friend had only been married about three years when her husband came home from an office party drunk as a skunk and showed her the rotten side of himself. She woke up/came to the next morning with a black eye, cracked ribs, and several thousand dollars worth of demolished furniture and personal belongings. By noon she had packed everything she owned, including her dog, and drove 300 miles back to her parents' house. As far as I know, to this day she has never laid eyes on her ex-husband since. Once was enough for her; she wasn't going to stick around to see if his promises of "it'll never happen again" were as hollow as the "I'd never hurt you, not for a million dollars" pledge when they were dating.

For each of us there's a different breaking point, but eventually there will be a breaking point for almost all of us. (The top 1% probably will never worry about it.)

I've already cut back a lot of driving, and I've done my best to schedule errands in clusters. I wish I could afford a more fuel efficient vehicle; I can't, and I bought this one under emergency circumstances or I'd have got something else then, too. I wish I had access to public transportation. In Apache Junction, Arizona, are you kidding? But I do what I can, and I try to do more.


Because so far, I'm not numb. I'm just


Tansy Gold

[Viva_La_Revolution]

109. I used to live in AJ...

and you're right, the public transportation there leaves much to be desired. :(

[UpInArms]

12. Oil powers above $125 as funds pile in

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080509/bs_nm/markets_oil_dc

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil raced to a new record high above $125 a barrel on Friday, as a strong performance over the last week and a surge in heating oil futures saw investment funds trooping into the market.

Funds were keen to shift their money into the oil market after seeing U.S. crude rise about 13 percent since the start of the month, analysts say.

U.S. crude for June delivery rose $1.37 to $125.06 by 6:25 a.m. EDT (1025 GMT), after earlier hitting a record high of $125.12 a barrel.

London Brent crude rose $1.36 to $124.20 per barrel.

"Funds are pouring into the crude market as prices have been performing extremely well," said Tatsuo Kageyama, analyst at Kanetsu Asset Management in Tokyo.

"Lingering geopolitical fears and high heating oil prices are helping the market, but the speed of the rise is too fast."

Gains in U.S. crude picked up momentum after distillate stocks in the United States, including heating oil, fell.

...more...

[TalkingDog]

16. Nigerian Rebels Hate America and our Gas Guzzling Cars.

http://recent-business-news.com/data/articles_b19/idb2008.05.06.07.19.40.html#hdng0

As do Oil Traders:
>Oil traders seem to have shrugged off a strengthening dollar to seize on a new rationale: that a gradual U.S. economic turnaround will bolster demand.

Striking port workers at the port of Marseilles, France

Iran and their nuc-u-lar program

The Turks, who insist on fighting with Iran

Kurdish rebels who hate the Turks.

May and June hate us: otherwise oil prices wouldn't peak then

The weak dollar

Venezuela, who insists that they like China better:
>Under the deal, Venezuela will supply China with 400,000 barrels a day, five times the current amount. ed levels of production were shut in, but expected the impact on supplies to be limited.


Here's an interesting snip from down the page:

The U.S. Government energy futures regulator, CFTC opened the way to the present unregulated and highly opaque oil futures speculation. It may just be coincidence that the present CEO of NYMEX, James Newsome, who also sits on the Dubai Exchange, is a former chairman of the U.S. CFTC. In Washington doors revolve quite smoothly between private and public posts.<2> As that U.S. Senate report noted: Until recently, U.S. energy futures were traded exclusively on regulated exchanges within the United States, like the NYMEX, which are subject to extensive oversight by the CFTC, including ongoing monitoring to detect and prevent price manipulation or fraud.<3>

The trading of energy commodities by large firms on OTC electronic exchanges was exempted from CFTC oversight by a provision inserted at the behest of Enron and other large energy traders into the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000 in the waning hours of the 106th Congress.<2>

The increased speculative interest in commodities is also seen in the increasing popularity of commodity index funds, which are funds whose price is tied to the price of a basket of various commodity futures. Goldman Sachs estimates that pension funds and mutual funds have invested a total of approximately $85 billion in commodity index funds, and that investments in its own index, the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI), has tripled over the past few years.<2>


((*thumbs yellow pages* checking into lightweight carts the dogs can pull))

[Robbien]

57. Some Dems are trying to close that loophole by adding a bill to the Farm Bill

Other than the food stamp program, closing the unregulated trading by bigoil loophole is about the only thing that is good in the Farm Subsidy Bill.

[ozymandius]

102. I'll bet my dog can pull a bike.

Great for getting up hills.

[ozymandius]

20. Survey says executives see oil prices falling

HOUSTON - Even as oil prices ascended to new highs of more than $124 a barrel this week, many oil and gas industry executives say they expect the price to fall significantly by year's end, a new survey shows.

Fifty-five percent of 372 petroleum industry executives surveyed by KPMG LLP said they think the price of a barrel of crude will drop below $100 by the end of the year. Twenty-one percent of respondents predicted a barrel of oil will end the year between $101 and $110, while 15 percent forecast the year-end price to be between $111 and $120 a barrel.

Nine percent said they expect the price to close the year where it's been this week — above $120 a barrel.

What's more, 44 percent of the executives said their companies plan to increase capital spending on exploration and production by 10 percent during the next year.

.....

Widely watched oil price prognosticator Goldman Sachs said this week oil prices could rise to $150 to $200 within two years; others say crude could plummet to as low as $40 or $50 a barrel during the same period.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080509/ap_on_bi_ge/oil_prices_survey

It sounds like a ten day weather forecast. And just as reliable. All we can really count on is the 100% probability that oil will be purchased today.

[UpInArms]

23. oh my

they're doing comedy routines this morning

[AnneD]

62. Actually, UIA

will it drop to pre Bush levels, no, but it will drop. I am going by what happened after the Arab Oil Embargo and the fact that we have a lot of speculation in oil at the moment. Money seems to be going from gold, silver, and RE into Oil. Prices did drop after the embargo. Even though China wasn't in the picture then, the US is a big consumer and having us use less will have an impact. It seems to be another bubble in a simmering pot.

Most folks I know have been changing their driving habits. We have more folks on mass transit here in Houston....and we love our cars here. Folks are moving closer to their jobs, cutting out or combining trips. It will take a while to show up but things are changing. If I go to work at the hospital that I am thinking about-I will be able to give up commuting in my car totally-which I would do in a heartbeat. And I am just one of many here in a car dependent city that is willing to give her car up.

I agree in part with some of these guys. But this won't happen this summer so save up for those AC bills.

[UpInArms]

24. Oil futures up $1.90 to $125.59 a barrel

09. Oil futures up $1.90 to $125.59 a barrel
7:22 AM ET, May 09, 2008

[UpInArms]

37. U.S. crude sets record high of $125.98 a barrel

http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUSL0984833120080509

LONDON (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures rose to a fresh record high of $125.98 a barrel on Friday.

They were trading $2.11 higher at $125.80 by 7:09 a.m. EDT.

[lib2DaBone]

63. 11:00 am EST Gold takes a $25 Instant Hit

OIl Up, Dollar down, CitiGroup loses $500 Billion, yet gold takes a $25 Instant Hit. How are they doing this? I don't get it?

down the rabbit hole

[Mind_your_head]

76. Weird, isn't it?

I can't explain it, except to think that "the powers that be" are mighty powerful to hold the price of gold down like this, but I dunno.....

I was hoping that someone might weigh in here with a thought or two.

[TalkingDog]

5. *raises hand* I have a question. Who thinks this is newsworthy?

the very definition of news is: People don't already know it.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aPg7NHLeWfSk&refer=news

The no-duh quotes:

snip:
``Consumers have gone into the bunkers,'' said Ken Goldstein, an economist at the Conference Board, the New York- based research group that tracks confidence. They ``fear that their budgets are getting squeezed tighter and tighter.''

snip:
``A $600 check isn't enough to turn things around,'' said Goldstein. ``It took so much to wilt consumer confidence, that it's not going to be rebuilt real fast.''

snip:
``The rebates won't generate a sustained increase in spending,'' said John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. ``By the fourth quarter, growth will look disappointing to most people.''



Cash-strapped Americans are accumulating credit-card and other forms of debt. Consumer borrowing jumped more than double the amount economists forecast in March, while the share of banks making it tougher for companies and consumers to borrow approached a record in the past three months, according to Fed reports this week.

[ozymandius]

7. 28% of Americans still approve of the job Bush is doing.

So this may be newsworthy to that 28% still living in caves.

To the well-informed inhabitants here at the SMW this is not news. So I completely understand and support you in your rhetorical question over the boggling appearance of this story as a 'news' item.

[TalkingDog]

9. I think my major frustration in life is that I am well-informed.

I'm like a man stranded on a tiny speck of an island. I'm standing in the surf in the last remnants of my ragged clothes, sunburned and parched. After crude attempts at tool making I am now making a crude attempt at spearfishing. Suddenly, I stub my toe on something in the sand.

Moving the sand away, I find a waterlogged wooden chest. It is filled with unimaginable wealth.

Yay for me.

[Hugin]

15. !

:faint:

[TalkingDog]

21. Yeah, I love "sharing" those stats with my "moderate" (read conservative) friends

At lunch the other day I had the chance to slip some numbers into the conversation we were having about taxes and keeping the money you earn: "10% of the population has about 75% of the wealth", I offered helpfully. "I'm sure they earned every single bit of it by the sweat of their brow and the ache of their back.....or maybe it was the sweat of somebody else's brow...how does that go, now?"

[Hugin]

25. By pulling up somebody by their bootstraps?

Having a second job?

Oh, and I'm sure those top 1%-ers have it all in their 401(k)s... HAHAHAHAHAHAHA! *gasp* HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!


Edit: On second thought, I doubt the top 70% even know what a 401(k) -IS-... HAHAHAHAHHAHA! but, I'm sure they
all -hate- Social Security and think the best way to help the poor is to cut the Capital Gains tax! HAHAHAHAHA!
HAHAHAHAHAHA! *wipes tears away from eyes* HAHAHAHAHAHA!

[TalkingDog]

27. no...no...no...it was...Pull somebody's boots off and sell them for a profit.

Then make the barefoot guy get a second job and give you all the money.....

At least, I think that's how it goes.


Am I close?

[Hugin]

31. A close inspection of your chart reveals it's the very picture of a...

Ponzi Scheme.

It's just sick.

*tsk*

[Roland99]

60. Take another look and you'll see that it really is trickle down.

Trickle as in the last bit of moisture left in a desert.

[AnneD]

68. Or my Favourite Texasism.......

Don't Piss On My Leg And Tell Me It's Raining. Usually followed up with 'Or I'll Kick Your Ass.

We (in Texas) really are a friendly place, and we do like Tall Tales that are labeled as such, we just have a low tolerance for bull shit passed off as fact.

[InkAddict]

108. Look, up ahead it's an oasis...uh, er...mirage

agua....agua.....

[ozymandius]

8. Citigroup may unveil $400 billion asset sales: sources

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc (C.N), hard hit by the global credit crunch, is expected to present plans to sell roughly $400 billion of extraneous assets when it meets with investors and analysts on Friday, people familiar with the situation said.

Newly-installed Chief Executive Vikram Pandit, scrambling to slash Citi's costs and get past credit market problems, also intends to reaffirm his promise to cut annual expenses at the largest U.S. bank by roughly 20 percent, one of the sources told Reuters on Thursday.

Citigroup declined to comment.

The sales could amount to nearly 20 percent of Citi's current assets, and according to the Financial Times, which first reported the story on Thursday, would take place over several years.

.....

But concerns still remain about Citi. Its shares still trade at about their book value, while healthier banks' shares typically trade well above their book value.

Citi's "Tier 1" capital ratio -- a measure of the bank's capital strength -- is above 8.6 percent, based on March balance sheet figures and recent capital raising efforts.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080509/bs_nm/citigroup_dc

[Tansy_Gold]

41. Citigroup still hiring -- collection agents

I'm registered on a couple of jobs websites -- monster, jobing, etc. -- and most of them I have my information as "private" and available only to those employers I directly contact. But I also have a couple where the ifo is "public" to anyone who wants it.

In the past week, I've had solicitations from life insurance companies for salespeople, and from Citi for collections agents.

No, I didn't answer them.

[TalkingDog]

66. Your pocketbook may squeek, but your karma will thank you.

While we all live off other people, creatures, life, etc....

There is nothing quite so vile as living off of another person's misery.

[AnneD]

70. I could make a ton of money as a temp Nurse,

but some companies provide scab or strike breaking Nurses. The money was tempting but I could never bring myself to so it. I'd rather strap a matress to my back and work Roland's corner.:spray:

[AnneD]

75. Think the job market is tough-not a nibble for this impressive resume

  Alberto Gonzales
Houston, Texas
71 Dear Sir/Madame:
In my legal career, I have worked for both a large law firm (1
) and for the most important man in the federal government (2). I have consistently proven to be a person who gets results and will do whatever it takes (3) to get the job done.
I have always been interested in working for (4). I think my skill set, which includes work in the area of constitutional law (5), telecommunications law (6) and human resources (7), is a perfect
fit for (8).
I would be appreciative if you would take a look at my résumé and consider me for a position. Feel free to contact me with any questions (9).
Education:
U.S. Air Force Academy, 1975-79 (dropped out) (0)
Rice University, bachelor’s degree in political science, 1979 (11 )
Harvard Law School, J.D., 1982
Experience
Vinson & Elkins, 1982-94 (2)
General Counsel to Texas Governor George W. Bush, 1994-97 (3)
Texas Secretary of State, 1997-99
Member, Texas Supreme Court, 1999-2000
White House Counsel, 2001-04
Attorney General, 2004-07
Rumored First Hispanic U.S. Supreme Court Justice, 2001-07 (4)
Career Highlights
Conducted extensive review of the Geneva Convention (5)
Conducted extensive review of the right of habeas corpus (6)
Set a World Record for the use of any version of “I can’t recall” while testifying before Congress (7)

<snip> lots more...:spray:

 http://media.houstonpress.com/2092654.0.pdf

http://www.houstonpress.com/2008-04-24/news/the-annotated-alberto-gonzales/full

I hope I snipped this right, hard to tell the paragraphs. But the point is, this guy can't even get his friends to throw him a bone. It is tough out there.

[formercia]

74. Oh, goodie, perhaps I can pick up a branch bank cheap.

drill a hole in the roof of the vault, install a wood stove and turn it into a fallout shelter.

[Hugin]

84. It'd make a great little get-away cabin fixer-upper...

no doubt! :lol:

[UpInArms]

10. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 73.111 Change -0.358 (-0.49%)

Euro SSI Points To Further Loses For A Third Straight Week

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Euro_SSI_Points_To_Further_1210275498295.html

EURUSD – The consensus is still out on whether the EURUSD is seeing the beginnings of a major reversal, but the Speculative Sentiment Index has now entered its third week with a net positive reading. On the other hand, while we hadn’t even seen a net positive reading since the final quarter of 2006 until recently, the positioning report is still very mild. With a ratio of 1.10, only 52% of the retail traders polled are long. This compares to a 1.31 reading last week when 57% of traders were betting on a rise in the euro. Looking back to 2005, during the last significant EURUSD downswing, the sentiment gauge was frequently above 2.00. Looking at the indicator’s statistics, retail traders have been more apt to follow the recent pull back in EURUSD. Long positions dropped 10% since yesterday though they were only 5.1% weaker than last Thursday. At the same time, short positions grew 11.3% from Wednesday and are 8.9% stronger on the week. Open interest has been relatively steady, falling 1.1% over the week and holding 2.6% above its monthly average. The SSI points to further EURUSD downside; but until a trend is established, the reading will likely remain weak.



...more...

Euro Higher as Trichet Effect Lingers But Evidence of Slowdown in EZ Grows

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio2/Euro_Higher_as_Trichet_Effect_1210322676150.html

The EURUSD continued its rebound from multi-week lows in the aftermath of yesterday’s very tough, unapologetically hawkish press conference by ECB President Jean Claude Trichet. Mr. Trichet essentially stated that European monetary authorities have no intention of lowering rates anytime soon given the elevated level of inflation present in the region’s economy and will continue to focus on controlling price pressures rather than bolstering waning economic demand.

Mr. Trichet’ s take no prisoners stand surprised some market players who expected a more conciliatory tone that would acknowledge the growing evidence of an economic slowdown in the Euro-zone. Yet tonight’s economic data perfectly reflects ECB’s dilemma. German wholesale prices registered a gain of 6.9% on a year over year basis as energy costs continued to expert enormous price pressures on the country’s producers while at the same time French Industrial Production fell –0.8% versus –0.4% expected. The EZ economy is clearly experiencing the worst of both worlds as it simultaneously faces contracting demand and rising prices.

Nevertheless, for the time being the ECB has decided to address only inflation and its decision to hold rates steady for the foreseeable future has given euro a temporary boost as speculative capital returned to the currency attracted by its 4% yield. We’ve long argued that the ECB will not make any meaningful moves on the interest rate front until the employment situation in the region begins to deteriorate. While labor markets in the EZ continue to expand, given the persistent evidence of slowdown in business demand we believe it is just a matter of time before employment data in the region turns negative forcing ECB to abandon its restrictive monetary policy. Therefore any gains in the pair are likely to be limited, unless EZ economic situation improves as the summer progresses.

Trading for the rest of the day will likely take its cue from the North American calendar which contains Canadian employment numbers and US Trade data. The US trade balance is expected to contract every so slightly from the month prior, but soaring energy prices could negatively skew final results. FX traders may zero in on the Non-Petroleum Trade numbers to determine if the weaker dollar continued to help correct US trade balance position in March. If the answer is no, the EURUSD may make a run at the 1.5500 level before the week is over.

...more...

[UpInArms]

11. Insurer AIG has $7.8 bln Q1 loss, to raise capital

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080509/bs_nm/aig_results_dc

NEW YORK (Reuters) - American International Group Inc (AIG.N), the world's largest insurer, posted its largest ever quarterly loss on Thursday after writing down assets linked to subprime mortgages, and said it would raise $12.5 billion to strengthen its balance sheet.

The weaker-than-expected results marked the second consecutive quarter AIG posted record losses, and sent AIG shares down nearly 8 percent in post-market trading.

The company said it was replacing its chief financial officer, as operating income weakened across much of the company.

"I'm disappointed. It was clearly a difficult quarter for them and the difficulties were fairly widespread, they weren't just in the investment portfolio," said Bill Fitzpatrick, an analyst covering financial stocks at Optique Capital in Racine, Wisconsin, which owns AIG shares.

AIG posted a first-quarter net loss of $7.81 billion, or $3.09 a share, compared with net income of $4.13 billion, or $1.58 a share, a year earlier.

<snip>

But the first quarter loss follows a $5.3 billion loss in the fourth quarter, which at the time set a record and was also driven by massive credit default swap write-downs.

...more...

[UpInArms]

14. Chunk of Chevron's job cuts seen in 2008: filing

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080509/bs_nm/chevron_jobcuts_dc

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Pointing at a slew of job cuts, Chevron Corp (CVX.N) said in a regulatory filing that about 1,100 employees were eligible for severance payments, after it implemented a restructuring plan in 2007.

Severance payments for about 300 staffers, mostly outside the United States, had already been made as of March 31, the second largest U.S. oil company said in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday.

A majority of job cuts are expected to occur in 2008, and the program is expected to be completed by the end of 2009, Chevron said in the filing.

...more...

[AnneD]

71. Now there's a clue about the future of gas...

why, in the middle of big profits and boom times would you start laying off. I think they are remembering the oil embargo. I worked with Gulf Oil when Chevron acquired ii.

[UpInArms]

18. More shoppers seeking shelter from economy in discounters

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080509/ap_on_bi_ge/retail_sales

NEW YORK - Caught in the maelstrom of higher gas and food prices, Americans — even more affluent ones — are seeking shelter in wholesale clubs and discount apparel chains.

Low-price operators Costco Wholesale Corp., Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and TJX Cos. reported better-than-expected sales on Thursday, while traditional apparel chains J.C. Penney Co. and Limited Brands Inc. struggled.

"The smart shopper is in full bloom," said Craig R. Johnson, president of consultancy Customer Growth Partners. "They're looking to stretch their household budgets, and if you can get decent quality merchandise, why pay full price?"

"Smart shopping" is sweeping through all wage classes, analysts say, and it could spell trouble for retailers' profits and for the economy, too.

To lure customers, apparel chains are discounting more. First-quarter profits are slated to be down by 14.9 percent, according to Ken Perkins, president of RetailMetrics LLC, a research company in Swampscott, Mass. That compares to a projection in January of 5.3 percent profit growth.

...more...

[Tansy_Gold]

58. I wonder how many are now shopping at

Goodwill, St. Vincent de Paul, Savers, etc.

Or not just wearing their "out of style" clothes instead of taking them to the Salvation Army.

Or making their own.


Tansy Gold, who has always been in the last two groups.

[starroute]

81. The real sign will be when thrift shop clothing gets fashionable

When I get sick of politics, I like to follow street fashion blogs. One of the most interesting trends is an emphasis on used clothing -- which is valued both because it's environmentally friendly and because it makes it possible to establish an individual style and not just follow the crowd.

Helsinki is one of the leaders in this. Finland is a very progressive, very wired country, and their young people are among the world's trendsetters. At http://www.hel-looks.com you can find them showing off the clothes they've bought on EBay or at second-hand store UFF, or treasures they've discovered in their parents' and grandparents' closets, or favored items they've worn since they were twelve.

They distinctly value the unique and even the ugly over the slick and commercial.

This is not just a fad for a particular retro style like we've seen at times in the past. It's the embodiment of a different philosophy of life -- and though I'm not seeing much sign of it yet in US fashion blogs (which are looking increasingly behind the times), when it does happen it will mark a crucial turning point.

[TalkingDog]

86. The very early hippies did the same things.

Digging through Mom & Dad's closet and wearing what ever struck their fancy. Then, like almost every other trend that can be co-opted, it became a uniform.

Give it 3 years. It'll be mandatory for the cool set.


http://www.stranko.com/boho.html

[ozymandius]

101. I shop at Goodwill.

True! I buy clothes at the Goodwill near the Buckhead community (read: rich, seasonal wardrobe cycle). I find clothes with stores' tags still attached, hardly worn and otherwise in great shape that are perfect for a new teacher on a tight budget.

Pants for five bucks. Shirts for four bucks. No sneezing at those prices.

[UpInArms]

26. the best thing I have read in a news article in a long time:

"I can't emphasize enough how terrible the political environment is for Republicans," said one Republican strategist who requested anonymity to speak candidly. "It is dreadful."

[Hugin]

28. Ahahaha!

"Requested anonymity to speak candidly"... HAHAHAHAHA!

HAHAHAHAHA! And the stupid corrupt polls show McSame at approx 50%... THEY LIE! HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! :rofl:


(Uh, oh... No! Not the white jacket Dr... HAHAHAHAHAHA! No need for that... HAHAHAHAHAHA! Up my meds? HAHAHAHAHAHA! *gasp* My cell is ready? Noooooooooooooo.... HAHAHAHAHAHAhahahaha... *scrape* *scrape* *slam*)

[DemReadingDU]

35. and our string quartet

:nopity: :nopity: :nopity: :nopity:

[ozymandius]

39. Laughable! It's so hard to tell them apart these days.

These anonymous Republicans all smell of grain alcohol sweat. Plus they have vomit stains on their knees.

[AnneD]

72. I am getting other distinct aromas from the GOP camp...

more like urine and feces... as in that diaper is about to be changed.

[Tansy_Gold]

46. And tell me, Mr. Republican strategist, just who is RESPONSIBLE for

creating this "terrible political environment" for yourselves? Huh? Huh? Who did it?

Who sent the economy straight into the crapper, putting millions of people out of work and out of their homes? Who suckered the poor into mortgages they couldn't afford and who made tons of money off those suckerings? Who is making real money hand over fist by sucking it out of hedge funds and SIVs and CDOs and other con games? Who has sucked the federal budget surplus dry and the banks dry and the retail economy dry and the manufacturing base dry and the tax base and every other source of REAL TANGIBLE WEALTH dry as a fucking javelina skull left in the desert for the seven droughted years of this virtually all GOP administration? Huh, Mr. anonymous repuke strategist, who did this?

:puke:

and

:nopity:

This kind of pathetic whining just makes my blood boil.


Tansy Gold

[Hugin]

54. Psst...

If it turned out to be Grover Norquist's quote... HAHAHAHAHAHA! My head would explode. HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!



(What? I was just talking to the nice people Dr... HAHAHAHAHAHAHA! You're wondering how I got out of the jacket
and the cell? HAHAHAHAHAHA! No, Doctor... I never spit my pills in the plant. HAHAHAHAHA! I have no idea why it's wilting... HAHAHAHAHAHA! Ooop. You're NO nurse! HAHAHAHAHA! You look like a Defensive Back... HAHAHAHAHA! *click*
Noooooooooooooooooo... HAHAHAHAHAhahah.... *slam*)

[Tansy_Gold]

56. HAHAHAHAHAHAHA (and today's theme???)

Grover Norquist!!!!!!

I can't hear or read that name without thinking of the Sesame Street Grover and his voice with Norquist's nasty nastiness.

Grover Norquist going down the drain of his own bathtub!!!

HAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Can you make room for me in that cell, Prag?


Artist: Napoleon XIV
From: Dr. Demento's Delights
Song: They're Coming to Take Me Away, Ha-Haaa!

Lyrics :

Remember when you ran away and I got on my knees and begged you not to
leave because I'd go berserk?? Well...
You left me anyhow and then the days got worse and worse and now you see
I've gone completely out of my mind.. And..
They're coming to take me away, ha-haaa!!
They're coming to take me away, ho-ho, hee-hee, ha-haaa
To the funny farm. Where life is beautiful all the time and I'll be
happy to see those nice young men in their clean white coats and they're
coming to take me away, ha-haaa!!!!!

You thought it was a joke and so you laughed, you laughed when I had said
that loosing you would make me flip my lid.. RIGHT???
I know you laughed, I heard you laugh, you laughed you laughed and
laughed and then you left, but now you know I'm utterly mad... And..


They're coming to take me away, ha-haaa,
They're coming to take me away, ho-ho, hee-hee, ha-haaa.
To the happy home. With trees and flowers and chirping birds and basket
weavers who sit and smile and twiddle their thumbs and toes and they're
coming to take me away, ha-haaa!!!

I cooked your food, I cleaned your house, and this is how you pay me back
for all my kind unselfish loving deeds.. Huh??
Well you just wait, they'll find you yet and when they do they'll put you
in the ASPCA, you mangy mutt!!! And...

They're coming to take me away, ha-haaa.
They're coming to take me away, ho-ho, hee-hee, ha-haaa.
To the funny farm, where life is beautiful all the time and I'll be happy
to see those nice young men in their clean white coats and they're coming
to take me away, ha-haaa!!!

To the happy home, with trees and flowers and chirping birds and basket
weavers who sit and smile and twiddle their thumbs and toes and they're
coming to take me away, ha-haa!!!
To the funny farm, where life is beautiful all the time... (fade out)

http://www.anysonglyrics.com/lyrics/n/napoleon-xiv/theyre-coming-to-take-me-away.htm

[Hugin]

61. My only hope is that he doesn't....

leave a ring! HAHAHAHAHAHA!

HAHAHAHA!

(Okay... HAHAHAHAHAHA! I can talk myself out of this, just like last time. HAHAHAHAHAHAHA! It's not real. HAHAHAHAHA!
What I'm seeing isn't real. HAHAHAHAHA! It's all in my mind. HAHAHAHAHAHAHA! But, wait... It isn't! HAHAHAHAHA!)


Good theme pick, Tansy_Gold! HAHAHAHAHA!

[DemReadingDU]

30. GM, Cerberus May Pledge $750 Million to ResCap Rescue

GM, Cerberus May Pledge $750 Million to ResCap Rescue (Update5)

By Jeff Green and Ari Levy

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp. and Cerberus Capital Management LP may agree to guarantee part of a $3.5 billion debt package designed to help GMAC LLC's Residential Capital unit avert bankruptcy.

GM, the world's biggest automaker, and Cerberus, the New York-based private-equity firm, may pay debt holders as much as $750 million if ResCap defaults, GMAC said in a filing today. The cost would be split by the two firms according to their stakes in GMAC, the Detroit-based auto and home lender said. GM sold 51 percent of GMAC to Cerberus-led investors in 2006.

The accord would mark a reversal for GM, which has said it has no obligation to support ResCap after the GMAC unit was battered by subprime mortgage losses. ResCap ranked among the 10 biggest U.S. mortgage lenders last year. The new arrangement is part of a financial plan that should provide enough liquidity for 12 months, GMAC said.

``It's good for GMAC in that it shows support for a troubled operation and it suggests the strategic importance of the unit,'' said Pete Hastings, a fixed-income analyst at Morgan Keegan & Co. in Memphis, Tennessee. ``It remains to be seen how far they will go.''

The rescue plan for ResCap may also include selling interests in mortgage securitizations, loans secured by time- shares and loan portfolios in the U.K. and Europe, GMAC said.

Failure to complete the plan ``would have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial position,'' GMAC said. The mortgage unit posted about $5.3 billion in losses over the past six quarters.

Shrinking Cash

ResCap reported an $859 million first-quarter loss last week, erasing GMAC's profit from its auto-finance subsidiary. The results renewed doubt about ResCap's survival, and credit- rating firms say GMAC may harm itself by continuing to support the money-losing subsidiary.

ResCap said on May 2 that it is seeking a $3.5 billion loan from GMAC as part of a bigger financing agreement. GM Chief Operating Officer Fritz Henderson said in February, when he was still GM's chief financial officer, that the automaker might consider more support for GMAC if its former unit fell significantly short of a forecast for a 2008 profit. GMAC has since said it may not make money this year.

The automaker relies on GMAC to help customers finance purchases. GM will provide vehicle financing and leasing incentives exclusively through GMAC for a 10-year period ending in November 2016, according to GMAC filings.

Cash Shortage

ResCap was the eighth-largest U.S. residential lender in 2007, according to January data from Inside Mortgage Finance. Faced with dwindling cash, the lender has been offering as little as 80 cents on the dollar to exchange or buy back $14 billion of bonds.

Gimme Credit analyst Kathleen Shanley said in a report last week that Minneapolis-based ResCap was on ``deathwatch'' because it can't pay debt due in 2008. Today, she wrote that ResCap may be better off in bankruptcy so a court could determine how the incoming funds are being used. As it stands, GMAC and Cerberus are providing forms of secured financing ``that put the owners of ResCap ahead of its bondholders,'' she wrote.

The rescue plan may need to be in place by June 9, the date $1.25 billion in floating rate notes are due. Those notes have risen steadily in price the last two months after reaching a low for the year of 68 cents on the dollar on March 19. They fell half a cent today at 93.5 cents on the dollar at 4 p.m. in New York, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.

GMAC, formed by GM in 1919 to make it easier for customers to buy vehicles, entered the mortgage business in 1985. GM sold a majority stake in GMAC to investors led by Cerberus as part of a plan to protect it from the car company's declining credit outlook.

Aegis Stake

Cerberus founder Stephen Feinberg said in February that GMAC faces ``substantial difficulty'' if credit markets don't improve. Cerberus, which backed out of two acquisitions late last year, has yet to say if it will provide additional financing to ResCap.

Cerberus also owned a stake in another money-losing subprime lender, Houston-based Aegis Mortgage Corp. Aegis went bankrupt in August, one of at least 100 home lenders that halted operations or closed last year amid what may rank as the worst U.S. housing slump on record.

GM spokeswoman Renee Rashid-Merem and GMAC spokeswoman Gina Proia said they had no comment beyond the filing. Cerberus spokesman Peter Duda declined to comment.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aIgyTmwr8deI&refer=home

[Hugin]

32. Question....

Is "deathwatch" some new rating by the rating companies? Sure, I've heard of "AAA" and "BBb-b", but, "deathwatch"?

I must've missed the memo on that.

:shrug:

[DemReadingDU]

34. First I've heard of deathwatch too

I would think there will be more companies to be added to that rating

:crazy:

[Hugin]

38. Although, "Gimmie Credit" has always sounded to me...

like one of these "Pay-day loan" outfits. This Kathleen Shanley seems as sharp as a tack...

Take note: "Today, she wrote that ResCap may be better off in bankruptcy so a court could determine how the incoming funds are being used. As it stands, GMAC and Cerberus are providing forms of secured financing "that put the owners of ResCap ahead of its bondholders."

Gee, imagine that, Cerberus and GMAC trying to 'get theirs' first and shut out the actual bondholders. :eyes:

[DemReadingDU]

45. about Kathleen Shanley, CFA

Kathleen Shanley, CFA (Investment Grade: Banks, Brokers, Finance, Insurance, Real Estate) has 21 years of experience in credit research as senior bond analyst for finance at Gimme Credit since 1999 and as senior analyst at BankAmerica Corporation. Shanley earned her B.A. from Georgetown University and her M.B.A. from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.

Her bio is at the end of this list...
http://daily.gimmecredit.com/gcdaily/request?SECTION=brochure&PAGE=Bios



edit to add additional articles where Kathleen Shanley has been quoted...
http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Kathleen+Shanley&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1

or this link (sorted by date)
http://tinyurl.com/4uou5b

[TalkingDog]

33. Maverick hedge fund agrees with majority of SMW readers.

Now THAT is news

http://www.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUSN0840871620080508

NEW YORK, May 8 (Reuters) - Maverick Capital, the $14 billion hedge fund group headed by industry veteran Lee Ainslee, expects a wave of failures among regional U.S. banks slammed by mortgage defaults, a senior Maverick executive said.

As a result, the firm is stepping up its "shorting" among regional lenders, said Maverick principal Steven Galbraith, told investors at a New York forum on Wednesday. His firm has provided financing to several of them, he noted, without naming the lenders.

"We've had the mother of all mean reversions," said Galbraith, referring to the credit market downturn that has rocked financial markets worldwide. "It's pretty much of a traffic accident of the U.S. economy."

He also warned that commodity prices have surged into "bubble" territory over the last 18 months on demand from developing markets, and are expected to reverse. This follows a pattern of rapid price deflation that hit sectors such as housing, technology and leveraged buyouts in recent years.

[DemReadingDU]

40. How safe is your bank?

Easy way to see the rating for your bank. Enter your state and bank name (or leave it blank to see all banks for your state)

http://www.bauerfinancial.com/btc_ratings.asp


Here's another link (also gives explanation of the ratings)
choose bank or credit union
select one of the 5 search criteria
http://www.bankrate.com/brm/safesound/ss_home.asp


edit to add explanation of the ratings...
http://www.bankrate.com/brm/safesound/brm_explain.asp

[Hugin]

42. Great resource, Thanks.

Mine are all 5 star... (for now, :scared: )

[DemReadingDU]

43. My banks have different ratings

Bauerfinancial gave my banks 4 stars

Bankrate gave my banks only 3 stars



maybe I should consider switching banks

:shrug:

[Hugin]

55. Selecting a bank is just like anything else...

Check out their sheets and match it with your needs.

I would imagine "Customer Service" is counted as a hit against the bank's rating... Because, it requires a large
staff and several branches to accomplish. So, if convenience is important to you, your choice may have a slightly
lower rating.

Also, there's a component related to their lending and exposure to "risk"... It's of critical importance to look
closely at that exposure, presently.

Good luck!

[AnneD]

73. Do they have this for...

Credit Unions????????

[DemReadingDU]

85. Yes, at the bankrate link

At the link, choose bank or credit union
Then select one of the 5 search criteria
You will probably be asked a few more criteria to further narrow the search.
It's quite interesting

http://www.bankrate.com/brm/safesound/ss_home.asp



:hi:

[AnneD]

96. Thanks...

I bookmarked all the sites-good info.

[antigop]

44. Mortgage crisis seeps to prime loans

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2008-05-08-prime-mortgage-delinquencies_N.htm

The first concrete evidence that delinquencies on mortgage bills have spread well beyond those with subpar credit shows that even prime borrowers have increasingly fallen behind on their house payments.

The figures remain relatively small so far. But if they rise further, delinquencies on prime loans — given only to those with good credit — could prolong the housing crisis.

About 2.3% of prime loans were 60 days' past due in February, the highest level in at least a decade, according to data from FirstAmerican CoreLogic LoanPerformance. That's up from 1.4% a year ago.

Some economists, such as Brian Bethune of Global Insight and Dean Baker of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, say they think delinquencies on prime loans have likely risen further since then.

But, hey, the economy is doing GREAT!!!

[ckramer]

49. 2.3% of prime loans were 60 days' past due is a lot

Once one lost one's job, it really didn't matter if it's a prime loan or sub prime loan any more.

[DemReadingDU]

51. Job losses, rising payments from ARMs and falling home prices

are contributing to the mortgage woes of prime borrowers

(the USAToday article)

[DemReadingDU]

50. Foreclosures are up too

from the article...

Still, even among prime borrowers, not just delinquencies but also foreclosures are up. From the fourth quarter of 2006 to the fourth quarter of 2007, the rate of foreclosure filings for prime adjustable-rate mortgages rose from 0.41% to 1.06%, the Mortgage Bankers Association says. The rate of foreclosure filings for prime fixed loans rose from 0.16% to 0.22%. Prime ARMs represent 15% of loans outstanding and 20% of foreclosure filings.

[antigop]

52. but, hey, the economy is doing just GREAT! Really..... n/t

[Demeter]

64. Today is the Day, My Fellow Marketeers

I'm off to court in two hours; my computer seriously died yesterday, but the sun is shining, the flowers are out, and I have a new goal.

Win or lose today, I have a new driving goal in life. I will be actively working to prove corruption, collusion, and malicious and illegal behavior on the part of the state's Adult Protective SErvices, and the county's mental health non-profit. These women have conspired to hold my daughter hostage so as to take her $1000/month in state and federal benerfits to prop up the pathetic program of Adult Foster Care that they oversee. I will be working to get the facts and see them arrested, fined, jailed and unemployable.

They do not know who they are messing with. It took 6 years, but I found my ex and got all the child support, despite his concealing himself in an unpublished marriage, where he was a "kept man" and didn't work, and he had used his technical expertise to wipe all trace of his existence off the internet. He also spent a night in jail for his petulance in not agreeing immediately to pay up.

If you can spare a thought or prayer of anything, I would be grateful. Wish me luck.

FREE ELINOR!

[Hugin]

65. Best of luck, Demeter!

:thumbsup:

[AnneD]

67. "I will be actively working to prove corruption.....

collusion, and malicious and illegal behavior on the part of the state's Adult Protective Services, and the county's mental health non-profit." Unfortunantly for APS-this will not be hard to do. :spray:

If you are poor and ethnic, CPS/APS already has their sterotyped cubby hole for you and they don't care. But if you are a blond haired blue eyed infant or have a trust fund or money they can get into to-they have their hooks out for you. It's a racket all right. Hope your attack dog lawyer and evil sister are there to help you. Prayers for St. Michael to look over you.

[DemReadingDU]

69. sending good vibes

Hoping for the best for you and your daughter

[antigop]

80. Best of luck to you! N/T

[UpInArms]

83. best of luck to you, Demeter

:grouphug:

only good thoughts going your way

:pal:

[ozymandius]

105. Gods' Speed Demeter

The story you tell is one I've heard too many times: deadbeats who know how to game the system to avoid their responsibility.

Be Hell on Earth.

[AnneD]

77. The Pool is open for the weekend............

Guess the date the DJIA rolls back to the level it was when the chimp took office-10,578.24. You can revise your dates up until Labour Day (the working man's holiday)or the DJIA hits 11000 (got to have a cut off). Anyone can join, just give a date and your reasoning for that date.

Happyslug.....5/9
Yael.....5/13
distant earlywarning.....5/13
AzDemDist6.....5/15
SpecimenFred.....6/15
Demeter.....6/17
bahrbearian.....7/1
InkAddict.....7/3
Karenia.....7/8
UIA.....7/15
Roland99.....7/28
Abelenkpe.....8/2
Kineneb.....8/8
Nadinebrezezinski.....9/1
Prag.....9/5
MoJo Rabbit.....9/5
MuleBoy(aka hiz honna da mayor).....9/11
Nickster.....9/12
Birthmark....10/10
AnneD....10/24
Neshanic.....10/24
MsLeopard.....10/31
Wordpix.....11/3
Ship wrack.....11/5



Remember-you can change the dates as we learn more. If your date isn't on the list, e-mail me and I'll add it the next time I post. I erased expired dates so you can guess again. I post about one a week-more often the closer we get to the number. The winner get the praise and admiration of those on the Stockwatch Thread. There is still time to place your bets.....And please-no Reggie bars in the pool please.

[Tansy_Gold]

90. Where am I? Where am I?

I thought I put myself in for 10/13, my birthday?


Tansy Gold, emotionally insecure and feeling terribly LEFT BEHIND!


:evilgrin:

[AnneD]

93. I'll put you in...

here's a tissue for your issue deary....:hug:

[ozymandius]

91. I'll bite.

October 23, 2008

That's when Bush will be fully embedded in the legacy of having accomplished nothing (positive, for the United States) in eight years.

[AnneD]

94. Alway room in the pool for you Ozy...

the water is perfect.

I picked the 10/24 because of the Great Crash and I'm a bit sentimental. October should be an interesting month-just a feeling.

[ozymandius]

100. The Summertime is when the Professionals go on vacation.

Markets go nuts too often during this time - particularly August. Fall is when the seasoned veterans come back and lend some of their gravitas to the daily dealing.

The Fed's manipulation of the S&P does not count as 'gravitas' though.

[dweller]

97. since i didn't get my pony w/ my last date picked

i'll now choose 8/19

thanks,
dp

[DemReadingDU]

104. Me too, October 16!

October 16, The calendar says it is National Boss Day.

[AnneD]

78. White House fights broader mad-cow testing

WASHINGTON — The Bush administration today urged a federal appeals court to stop meatpackers from testing all their animals for mad cow disease, but a skeptical judge questioned whether the government has that authority.

<Snip>


Less than 1 percent of slaughtered cows are currently tested for the disease under Agriculture Department guidelines. The agency argues that more widespread testing does not guarantee food safety and could result in a false positive that scares consumers.

"They want to create false assurances," Justice Department attorney Eric Flesig-Greene told a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit.

But Creekstone attorney Russell Frye contended the Agriculture Department's regulations covering the treatment of domestic animals contain no prohibition against an individual company testing for mad cow disease, since the test is conducted only after a cow is slaughtered. He said the agency has no authority to prevent companies from using the test to reassure customers.

"This is the government telling the consumers, 'You're not entitled to this information,'" Frye said.

more......

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/5767438.html

Just what in the hell is the purpose of Gov. if not to protect and defend and set standards. I hope these jackasses get mad cow from their own tainted beef:nuke:

[Mind_your_head]

82. Wow - thanks for this info

Anne, could/would you post this in GD also, please?

on edit: If you don't want to, would you mind if I posted it?

[AnneD]

95. Feel free to post it...

I'm a bit busy now.

[ozymandius]

103. The Meat Inspection Act of 1906

It appears as if there is an attempt to reverse 100 years of progress. Based on Upton Sinclair's "The Jungle":

The book's assertions were confirmed in the Neill-Reynolds report, commissioned by President Theodore Roosevelt in 1906. The President was suspicious of Sinclair's socialist attitude and conclusions in The Jungle, and so sent labor commissioner Charles P. Neill, social worker James Bronson Reynolds, and best friends Sean Bennett Hanni, and Zach Sandel, men whose honesty and reliability he trusted, to Chicago to make surprise visits to meat packing facilities.

Despite betrayal of the secret to the meat packers, who worked three shifts a day for three weeks to clean the factories prior to the inspection, Neill and Reynolds were still revolted by the conditions at the factories (Hanni and Sandel had mysteriously disappeared, last seen taking a walk through south side Chicago), and at the lack of concern by plant managers. Following their report, President Roosevelt became a supporter of regulation of the meat packing industry.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meat_Inspection_Act

[AnneD]

79. China producer price index up 8.1 pct

SHANGHAI, China — China's producer price index, a key indicator of inflation, rose 8.1 percent in April over the same month a year earlier, the government reported Friday, as a top economic official sought new controls to cool rising prices.

Greater-than-expected cost increases for raw materials and industrial inputs suggests that recent state media reports of a rapid moderation in the consumer price index may have been premature.

<snip>
Wang, the former Beijing mayor who recently took charge of China's financial sector, also called for tighter controls on flows of capital across borders — reflecting Beijing's concern over so-called "hot money" or speculative investments.

<snip>

But surging consumer prices, driven largely by rising food costs, have drawn even greater concern. The communist leadership fears that such soaring prices could trigger widespread unrest.

more...

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/business/5767082.html

[Ghost Dog]

87. China's Export Growth Slows, Easing Pressure on Yuan

May 9 (Bloomberg) -- China's export growth cooled in April and the trade surplus was little changed as economies around the world weakened, giving the government room to maintain a slower pace of yuan gains.

Overseas sales rose about 21.8 percent from a year earlier, after gaining 30.6 percent in March, according to figures derived from Ministry of Commerce data. The trade surplus was about $16.8 billion compared with $16.7 billion a year earlier.

Central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said on May 4 that weaker export growth has been a factor in the yuan's failure to appreciate versus the dollar after a 4.2 percent jump in the first quarter. Smaller gains in shipments reduce the risk that inflows of cash from overseas sales will fuel 11-year high inflation and overheat the world's fastest-growing major economy.

``Exports will slow further in the second half as the weaker demand in the U.S. and other markets becomes more pronounced,'' said Liao Qun, chief economist at Citic Ka Wah Bank in Hong Kong. ``China won't want the yuan to appreciate too fast for this reason.''

The trade surplus was more than the $15.5 billion median forecast of 19 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Economists expected exports to rise 20.3 percent. The gain in overseas shipments compares with the 21.4 percent pace in the first quarter and the 26 percent increase for all of last year.

Import Growth

Imports grew about 26.1 percent in April from a year earlier after gaining 24.6 in March, the calculations showed. The increase partly reflects rising commodity prices.

The yuan gained 0.2 percent to 6.9918 as of the 5:30 p.m. close of trading in Shanghai.

The world's fourth-biggest economy expanded 10.6 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier and inflation accelerated to 8 percent, the fastest pace since 1996. The yuan had its biggest gain since a fixed-exchange rate ended in 2005.

China's currency has climbed 18 percent versus the dollar since the peg to the U.S. currency was scrapped, making the nation's products more expensive in overseas markets and cutting import costs. Since April, it has gained only 0.3 percent.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=azrbhg0VA7V0&refer=economy

[Ghost Dog]

88. Japan's Economy May Slow as Output and Exports Cool

May 9 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's economy may slow as cooling export growth prompts companies to cut output, the government's broadest outlook indicator showed.

The leading index, derived from 12 statistics including production and stock prices, fell to 20 percent in March from 54.5 the previous month, signaling growth will slow over the next two quarters, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. The index has been below 50 in nine of the past 12 months.

Cooling demand for Japanese goods overseas prompted companies to cut production at the fastest pace in five years in March. Toyota Motor Corp., the world's second-largest automaker, yesterday posted its first quarterly profit drop in almost three years because of a stronger yen and a U.S. sales slump.

``Production is increasingly becoming a cause of concern for Japan's economy,'' said Junko Nishioka, a senior economist at ABN Amro Securities in Tokyo. ``We're going to enter a slowdown as the U.S. slowdown hurts foreign demand.''

Slumps in output have coincided with Japan's three recessions since 1991.

Sentiment among the country's largest manufacturers fell to its lowest level in four years in March as higher oil prices and the yen's 8 percent gain against the dollar this year ate into profits.

``Japan is at a crucial point in terms of whether it will fall into a recession or not,'' Yoshiki Shinke, a senior economist at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo. ``How much exports will slow because of a U.S. slowdown and how much that will affect factory output is key.''

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aw4PMmvhHnug&refer=economy

[Ghost Dog]

89. French Production Falls for First Time in Four Months

May 9 (Bloomberg) -- Industrial production in France fell for the first time in four months in March as global demand waned and domestic spending lost momentum.

Production at factories and utilities, which accounts for 15 percent of the economy, slipped 0.8 percent from February, when it gained a revised 0.5 percent, the national statistics bureau, Insee, said today in Paris. The decline was twice the 0.4 percent median forecast of 18 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

Manufacturers, who are facing rising production costs from the near doubling in crude oil prices in the past year, are also feeling the pinch of a euro worth almost $1.55 at a time when an economic slowdown in the U.S. is weighing on growth in the rest of the world.

Today's data ``is part of the general downturn of European growth,'' said Mathieu Kaiser, an economist at BNP Paribas SA in Paris. ``An expected slowdown amid economic and financial headwinds will occur in the second quarter and last a good part of the year.''

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=a02wtmqeZD8Q&refer=economy

[ozymandius]

106. End of the day stuff.

Dow 12,745.88 Down 120.90 (0.94%)
Nasdaq 2,445.52 Down 5.72 (0.23%)
S&P 500 1,388.28 Down 9.40 (0.67%)
10-Yr Bond 3.767% Down 0.038
NYSE Volume 3,518,617,750
Nasdaq Volume 1,714,386,000

4:20 pm : The stock market remained in a funk for the majority of Friday's trading, but managed to attract some modest buying interest late in the session. The buying was short-lived as stocks retreated to close at their previous levels, concluding the week almost 2.0% lower.

Investor pessimism was exacerbated by record high oil prices. Crude closed at $125.88 per barrel on the Nymex, which is a new record closing high. Crude set a new record closing high every session this week.

Despite the rise in oil prices, the energy sector (-1.0%) attracted few buyers. The sector was a primary laggard throughout the session.

Materials (-1.5%) were also largely out of taste. After climbing more than 2.0% in the previous session, the sector consistently underperformed its counterparts in Friday's action.

Specific weakness was exhibited by Dow Jones component American International Group (AIG 40.28, -3.87). The financial giant incurred $9 billion in pretax charges and announced an $8 billion loss for its most recent quarter. In turn, the company is planning to raise more than $12 billion through a common stock and equity linked offering to help bolster its financial health.

Weakness was also exhibited by fellow Dow components Exxon Mobil (XOM 88.82, -0.71) and General Electric (GE 32.27, -0.32). Both were laggards, weighing on the S&P 500.

The Nasdaq finished the session lower, but was a relative leader among the three major indices. The Nasdaq was helped by Priceline.com (PCLN 138.63, +14.85) and Activision (ATVI 31.64, +3.94). Both companies reported after yesterday's close earnings results that surpassed analysts' estimates for the most recent quarter.

Despite broad-based weakness in equities, Treasuries also attracted little buying interest. The benchmark 10-year Treasury Note closed just 2 ticks higher, moving its yield to 3.77%.

In economic news, the March trade deficit totaled $58.2 billion, which is less than economists expected and down from the revised $61.7 billion deficit reported for February. A narrowing deficit bodes well for GDP, which will likely be favorably reflected in revisions to first quarter GDP.DJ30 -120.90 NASDAQ -5.72 NQ100 -0.3% R2K +0.1% SP400 +0.1% SP500 -9.40 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1454/1340/1.70 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1639/1432/1.10 bln