STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday January 30

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday January 30, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 355
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2567 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2291 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2252
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 29, 2008

Dow... 12,480.30 +96.41 (+0.78%)
Nasdaq... 2,358.06 +8.15 (+0.35%)
S&P 500... 1,362.30 +8.33 (+0.62%)
Gold future... 930.80 -2.00 (-0.21%)
30-Year Bond 4.34% +0.05 (+1.26%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.66% +0.07 (+2.01%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [email protected]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp: All Eyes on the Fed

BY FRANK BARBERA, CMT

This week, our update is all about sectors and a look at some interesting charts. In the wake of last week's dramatic stock market sell off, we poured through our charts to see what looks seriously oversold and where ‘reward’ could be high, and where ‘risks’ can be managed. Be aware that over the last few weeks, the steady downtrend in stock prices world wide is strong confirmation that a bear market, possibly a bear market of epic proportions, has taken control. For months this column has warned readers of precisely this outcome, and only now, with prices badly battered do we see the first real hope for a recovery rally.

That said, we are under no false illusions. The current tenuous lease on life courtesy of technical oversold readings is highly dependent on additional help from monetary policy. If the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates by at least .50 basis points tomorrow, then the disappointment will reign supreme, and stock prices are likely to get very ugly once again. In our view, the Fed and other Central Banks have a great deal of control on what happens next. Should they cut rates tomorrow by 1/2 point? In this author's opinion the answer to that is a no-brainer, YES. The yield curve on the short end of the curve is still inverted, and monetary policy will not help the banking system until banks can earn a positive ‘carry.’ If the central banks were really on top of their game, then Europe and the Bank of England would be quick to follow on the heels of the Fed Rate cut this week and not let the American Central Bank stand alone.

Without foreign support and the strong phalanx of a ‘unified front’ among the Central Banks, the problems of the bursting credit-debt bubble will likely render all central banks completely irrelevant within the next few months. As I see it, this is their big chance to act in concert and show the world that help is on the way. Like Trust, once lost, confidence can be the most impossible feeling to restore, and that’s what this is all about, maintaining the emotional well being and confidence of the masses. Investors don’t like losing money, and once burned badly, it can be a long time before they work up the confidence to invest again. If the Feds want to maintain asset inflation and not find BOTH HOUSING and STOCKS deflating at the same time, they had better get this right, because the downside from here will be unmerciful. Failure could quickly degenerate into a self reinforcing deflationary spiral, which once that kicks into high gear, will be followed with a tide of rising protectionism in which things go from bad to worse.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Demeter]

5. That's a Harsh Assessment--Is He Correct?

And frankly, I doubt that other Central Banks have a burning need to support us. The sooner the US crime machine sinks under its own fraudulent weight, the better it will be for the rest of the world.

[dmallind]

39. Well we are the world's biggest consumer market by far

It would be very short sighted for foreign central banks to risk their nations' economies to make a political point. It's not like a US collapse wouldn't drag Europe and Asia with it either.

[Demeter]

On the Other Hand, If the US Market Collapses, As It Appears Likely To Do

Europe might be able to time it, or guide the collapse, so as to inflict the least damage on Europe--and prove a political point at the same time.

[dmallind]

47. You might want to look at US imports from Europe

And Europena investment in US equities, bonds and currencies. There is no truly insulated developed economy left, let alone a regional first rank insulated economy.

[Demeter]

48. But Europe Is Drowning In US Fraud

They may choose a form of cutting losses that includes a little punishment. The US was not gentle to Europe any more than the rest of the world--not since the Marshall plan. The US is not in a position to bargain anymore.

[dmallind]

52. "Might" includes all possibilities so I'll agree

but it's only even vaguely likely if we assume European central bank leadership starts thinking with emotions, and decidedly unusual ones at that, rather than cold reason. Cold reason is a promotion-enhancing trait in most macroeconomic institutions, and for good...well.... reason.

[Demeter]

53. I Thought the Bush Disease Had Been Spreading Like Plague!

Please tell me where reason and common sense still hold sway!

[dmallind]

54. Well not in Bushland of course

but some of the damn foreigners have a pesky tendency to actually think now and again ;)

[Ghost Dog]

50. ...

"If consumption accelerates, we will eat the planet. If consumption suddenly slows, we will eat each other. - El Roto in El País."

[dmallind]

51. Yes very deep and angsty, but not all that applicable

Consumer spending drives at least two thirds of the US market, and the US market is head and shoulders above any other. Forign central banks know this, and place more weight on what that will do to their economies than on comic books.

[AnneD]

55. Morning Marketeers....

:donut:and lurkers. Powerful toon GD, powerful toon. Rumours are swirling around today...First, they are saying that Edwards will announce his withdrawal from the race. And that is sad. He is ahead of the curve on this one. I still intend to cast my ballot for him-I want to send a big honking message to the Democratic Party, the bought and paid for Democratic elected officials, the M$M, and Corporate America. Today the ballot, tomorrow the tar and pitch forks.

And of course we have the fed rate cut rumours.:eyes: As one poster noted, pretty soon they will have to pay us to use their money. I heard a shocking bit of news this am. Well, to posters on this thread, it is not shocking. They were actually talking about the Credit Crisis (the sub prime crisis in 07, the credit crisis in 08). I didn't catch the name of the 'expert' they talked to but he started spitting out the honest truth as to how we had gotten in this situation. Talked about funding (or not)the Iraq war while living the high life at home. He bluntly told the reporter how the cow at the cabbage. The advice the reporter gave was lame, but then they only allowed 2 minutes on the story. I think we will be hearing more stories like this in the future-especially when these ARM's reset.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Hugin]

58. Morning AnneD...

:hangover:

We see now, how far my endorsement goes... I'm no Caroline Kennedy! :D

The bright side is, now I can turn my full attention to backing Mercer!

On the 'Credit Crisis', what we have here is the clearest case of people wanting to eat cherries and have
their nice cherry wood credenza too. (I think the time scale here is more realistic. Takes a long time to
regrow a cherry tree and a credenza is of no use if you don't have an entry way to put it in.)

But, your cow and cabbage comparison made me :D .

I heard something very interesting on the radio last night. Something that Thomas Paine said. Went something
like this, "If we can afford an aristocracy we could afford something else more useful in it's place." Pretty
well sums up my opinion on the matter. Aristocracies/Oligarchies are expensive and they do most people very little good.
Personally, I'd rather have universal single-payer health care.

[Ghost Dog]

60. No shit (all three).

[AnneD]

62. And I'm...

no Oprah Winfrey-but I can give you a paid for used car (1997 Toyota Celica-needs some body work).:spray::rofl:

OH DEAR... The Thomas Paine quote was priceless. I remember that in my youth....folks in Society would brag about their ancestors esp. if they came over on the Mayflower. Now think about that. This is a group that got kicked out of England because they were an anti government religious cult. Holland took them in gladly and they got pissed because oh, say, their kids HAD TO LEARN DUTCH AND DUTCH CUSTOMS. So these crazy loons heading to the Guiana of the time-North America. But not just anywhere in North America, like close to an existing settlement-no they go to an extremely remote area, loosing a large number of folks in the process. I don't know about you, but that is not the kind of stupidity I'd brag about. And Georgia started out as a penal colony. Talk about high society.:eyes:

How the cow ate the cabbage is old farmer term I grew up with and I am happy to pass along. Rural based figures of speech are the best, and I was lucky enough to be around a lot of old timers in my youth.

[TalkingDog]

76. Mayflower Families

I always love it when the posh ladies bring up their lineage. In my sweetest, most perky tone I always offer that the Spousal Unit's family name is listed on the Mayflower registry.

When they ask what family I say: "McG___, he was an indentured servant, they brought him over against his wishes." And try to look as vacuous as possible, while I wait for them to fumble around to find a way to change the subject.

It makes use of my best natural talents: an evil mind and a the total lack of that filter that other people seem to have that tells them not to say the first thing that pops into their heads.

[AnneD]

105. Sweet...

eom

[Maeve]

69. "How the cow ate the cabbage"--one explanation

It seems a long time ago, the circus was passing thru and one of the smaller elephants got loose and went looking for something to eat. Well, one of the local ladies (whose vision was a mite on the short side) looked out back and saw the thing in her garden. She screamed and ran off to get help.
"There's a strange cow in my garden, pulling cabbages up with its tail," she told the policeman on the corner.
"Pulling them up with its tail?! Is it eating them?" he asked.
"Well, I think so, but if I told you how you'd never believe me!"

And that's how the cow ate the cabbages. Well, one explanation, anywho.

[Warpy]

74. The problem is that the consumer market in the US will sink with it

and a depression in the US is going to be a worldwide depression, as all those countries that persuaded CEOs to let them loot our industry will suddenly be deprived of their largest marketplace as the consumer economy is shut down here. People will do what they did the last time: hunker down, buy just enough food to keep them alive, learn how to patch clothing and put newspaper in walked-through shoes, live in cold houses and be thankful that the roof keeps most of the snow off while they try to barter everything they managed to get in order to satisfy creditors.

Yes, this house of cards is going to collapse. I don't think anything can stop it now, it's just gone too far. The earlier we can get this mess re regulated and the tax code back on a rational footing, the shorter a depression will be. Unfortunately, government is always reactive and I'm not sure either of the remaining candidates has a particularly fast reaction time or decent enough grasp of the history of boom and bust cycles to do what is necessary.

So yes, central banks do have a very serious stake in what is happening in the US. Whether or not they'll be able to force the hand of a new president to do what is necessary remains to be seen. Just the threat of floating the Yuan against the dollar should be sufficient, but one never knows.

[Roland99]

22. CNBC guest fluffer: Corporate insiders are bullish (and he says they're mostly right)

Some guy was on this morning saying he analyzed sentiment, corporate insiders, and newsletters. According to him, newsletters were mostly always wrong while corporate insiders were mostly always right. So, since his corporate insiders are telling him they're getting bullish, all this talk of a bear market is unnecessary.


Guess that answers that, then, eh?

[TalkingDog]

38. Who knows? We might get a brief reprieve.

Until the elections are over. I have a friend in the markets who is adamant that the govt. won't let a recession/plunge/whatever happen in an election year.

It certainly seems that they are doing everything they can to brake the progress of...well, okay, short of taxing their rich friends and developing new economies with higher wage jobs and cutting the military budget....

and off thread but....

And every time I see the word fluffer I think about this fellow I work with. Very Quaker/Calvin/Mormon-esqe. Single mid-50's. A bit rigid and straight-laced, but a caring soul.

In Dec. we were in a fundraising meeting for the holiday sale and we were discussing our handmade Christmas wreaths. They were looking a bit sad after being packed up for transport and in the meeting he suggested we needed a fluffer to fluff them back up a bit. I bit my lip and strenuously avoided eye contact with the director, who always sets me off when something funny happens.

Since nobody could bear to open their mouths, he kept talking and describing how the fluffer would make the wreaths so much nicer and how it would perk them up and .....

Fluffer Fluffer Fluffer!!! okay... got that out of my system. *whew*


My Favorite Master Artist: Karen Parker GhostWoman Studios

[Roland99]

42. Well now... Tha was a nice little fluff piece.

;-)

[Demeter]

43. There Are Things Even Bush and His Minions Cannot Control

Actually, most things....

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

8:15 AM ADP Employment Jan
Briefing Forecast N/A
Market Expects N/A
Prior 40K

8:30 AM GDP-Adv. Q4
Briefing Forecast 1.9%
Market Expects 1.2%
Prior 4.9%

8:30 AM Chain Deflator-Adv. Q4
Briefing Forecast 3.0%
Market Expects 2.6%
Prior 1.0%

2:15 PM FOMC Policy Statement

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[UpInArms]

35. ADP Boondoggle Alert: U.S. ADP suggests 150,000 jobs created in Jan

02. U.S. ADP suggests 150,000 jobs created in Jan
8:16 AM ET, Jan 30, 2008 - 10 minutes ago

03. U.S. Jan. ADP employment up 130,000
8:15 AM ET, Jan 30, 2008 - 11 minutes ago

[Roland99]

44. Still 20k-30k below equilibrium but don't hold your breath waiting for the media to report that.

[Demeter]

67. And Grossly Inflated By Bogus Estimates, as Usual

[UpInArms]

37. 8:30 reports: U.S. 4Q GDP rises 0.6% vs. 1.1% expected

03. U.S. 4Q disposable incomes up 0.3%
8:30 AM ET, Jan 30, 2008 - 2 minutes ago

04. U.S. core PCE price index up 2.1% in past year
8:30 AM ET, Jan 30, 2008 - 2 minutes ago

05. U.S. 4Q residential investment falls 23.9%, 27-year low
8:30 AM ET, Jan 30, 2008 - 2 minutes ago

06. U.S. 4Q business investment up 7.5%
8:30 AM ET, Jan 30, 2008 - 2 minutes ago

07. U.S. 4Q consumer spending up 2.0%
8:30 AM ET, Jan 30, 2008 - 2 minutes ago

08. U.S. 4Q core PCE price index rises 2.7%
8:30 AM ET, Jan 30, 2008 - 2 minutes ago

09. U.S. 2007 GDP increases 2.2%, lowest since 2002
8:30 AM ET, Jan 30, 2008 - 2 minutes ago

10. U.S. 4Q GDP rises 0.6% vs. 1.1% expected
8:30 AM ET, Jan 30, 2008 - 2 minutes ago

[Ghost Dog]

45. Economy Nearly Stalled in 4th Quarter

WASHINGTON (Map, News) - The economy almost stalled in the final quarter of last year with a growth rate of just 0.6 percent, its worst year since 2002.

The Commerce Department's report on the gross domestic product, released Wednesday, showed an economy that had deteriorated considerably during the October-to-December quarter as worsening problems in the housing market and harder-to-get credit made individuals and businesses more cautious in their spending. Fears of a recession have grown.

For all of 2007, the economy grew by just 2.2 percent, the weakest performance in five years, when the country was struggling to recover from the 2001 recession. The housing collapse dealt the economy its biggest blow last year. Builders slashed spending on housing projects by 16.9 percent on an annualized basis, the most in 25 years.

The fourth-quarter's performance was much weaker - half the pace - than economists were expecting. They were forecasting growth to clock in a 1.2 percent pace.

The 0.6 percent annualized increase in gross domestic product (GDP) marked a big loss of momentum from the third quarter's brisk, 4.9 percent showing. The fourth-quarter pace was the slowest since the first quarter of last year.

The GDP figures come as worries mount that the country is on the verge of a recession or perhaps is already sliding into one.

/... http://www.examiner.com/a-1189913~Economy_Nearly_Stalled_in_4th_Quarter.html?cid=temp-spotlight

[Ghost Dog]

46. Economic growth in 2007 weakest in 5 years

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Economy growth skidded lower in the fourth quarter and was the weakest in five years for all of 2007, according to a government report on Wednesday that highlighted the toll an enfeebled housing sector has taken on the national economy.

Gross domestic product, which measures total goods and services output within U.S. borders, edged up at a weaker-than-expected 0.6 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter and for the full year advanced only 2.2 percent - the slowest growth in annual GDP since 1.6 percent in 2002.

Analysts surveyed by Reuters had forecast that fourth-quarter GDP would grow at a 1.2 percent rate. The lackluster fourth quarter performance followed a booming third quarter when GDP surged at a 4.9 percent rate and is likely to fuel fears the economy is at risk of tumbling into recession in 2008.

Spending on new-home building plunged 23.9 percent in the fourth quarter, the biggest quarterly drop in 26 years, after falling 20.5 percent in the third quarter. Over the course of the full year, residential spending fell 16.9 percent, the worst annual performance since 1982.

There were also signs that prices were bubbling higher as a gauge favored by the Federal Reserve - personal consumption spending excluding food and energy items - gained at a 2.7 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter. That was well ahead of the third quarter's 2 percent increase and Wall Street expectations. It was the biggest increase for any three months in 1-1/2 years.

/... http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/180488,economic-growth-in-2007-weakest-in-5-years.html

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices rise on Fed expectations

SINGAPORE - Oil prices rose despite predictions of rising U.S. oil supplies, with traders focusing on expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later Wednesday and OPEC will not raise its output this week.

"There's possibly some anticipation over the Fed's likely rate cut," said David Moore, a commodity strategist with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney.

The U.S. central bank cut interest rates sharply last week, and is expected to cut rates again Wednesday. Energy investors hope the moves by the Fed and a planned stimulus package from the U.S. Congress will limit damage to the economy of the world's largest oil consumer.

Light, sweet crude for March delivery added 56 cents to $92.20 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore.

The contract rose 65 cents to settle at $91.64 a barrel on Tuesday.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Federal Reserve expected to cut rate

WASHINGTON - The Federal Reserve is likely to follow its bold action last week to battle an economic downturn with further interest rate reductions, although analysts are split on just what size the future cuts will be.

Some believe the Fed will settle into a series of quarter-point moves, especially if upcoming economic reports show the economy is slowing but not toppling into an actual recession.

That would mean the Fed will cut its federal funds rate, the interest that banks charge each other, by a quarter point at the conclusion of Wednesday's meeting. It would be the fifth rate cut since last September.
.....

Many analysts believed the Fed would quickly follow last week's aggressive move with a cut of at least a half-point at its first regular meeting of the new year. While some economists are still looking for a half-point cut, other economists are arguing that the Fed is likely to produce only a quarter-point reduction, especially in light of some better-than-expected recent economic data.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080130/ap_on_bi_ge/fed_interest_rates

[radfringe]

6. until the fed rate cuts trickle down

on US in some significant way - won't make a bit of difference to the overall health of the economy

if you have killed the goose, it's not going to lay any more eggs

on edit: the last time the Fed went into serial rate cuts, it boosted the housing market, now were seeing that market burst and we're in the mess we're in today.

the rebate smoke-mirror checks won't do squat either - it's like putting a bandaid on a spurting artery

if the Dems don't snatch defeat from the mouth of victory, and do get into the white house, it's still going to take 4-5 years to clean up the mess, get this boat turned around and headed in the right direction

[kineneb]

110. better analogy

Like trying to use a cork to stop up Teton Dam. And it all started with a little trickle. Sound familiar?

Only this "dam" failure has cost trillions, will cost trillions more, and who know how many lives.



The Teton Dam, 44 miles northeast of Idaho Falls in southeastern Idaho, failed abruptly on June 5, 1976. It released nearly 300,000 acre feet of water, then flooded farmland and towns downstream with the eventual loss of 14 lives, directly or indirectly, and with a cost estimated to be nearly $1 billion.

[Demeter]

7. A helpful suggestion for the Fed / Willem H. Buiter

http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2008/01/a-helpful-sugge.html


It is now clear beyond a reasonable doubt that the Fed wants to prevent sudden sharp drops in the stock market. It has not, however, drawn the logical conclusion from this endogenous widening of its mandate. So instead of pussyfooting around with 75 basis point cuts in the target for the Federal Funds rate, I propose that the Fed put its money where its heart is by engaging in outright open market purchases of US stocks and shares.

By intervening through the purchase of the most broadly-based value-weighted index of US stocks, e.g. the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index, any unlevelling of the playing field between listed stocks can be avoided. I would prefer the Fed to acquire only non-voting shares, or to put any shares it acquires in a blind trust, to avoid any temptation to micro-manage the enterprises whose shares it purchases. On January 25 the Wilshire 5000 index stood at 13,423.62. The 52-week peak was on October 7, 2007 at 15,806.69. Let's split the difference and request the Fed to put a floor below the Wilshire 5000 at, say, 14,500.00. If the Hong Kong Monetary Authority can make large-scale domestic equity purchases during the Asian Crisis in 1998, the Fed can make large-scale domestic equity purchases during the North Atlantic Financial Crisis in 2008.

What I propose is effectively the same as the Fed attaching a free put option to every equity share in a US-registered and-listed enterprise. It would put paid forever to all those jokes about the Greenspan put and the Bernanke put.

Let's do it!

Author's Bio: Professor of European Political Economy, London School of Economics and Political Science; former chief economist of the EBRD, former external member of the MPC; adviser to international organisations, governments, central banks and private financial institutions.

[Demeter]

9. Sounds Like Dumping Social Security into the Stock Market to Me

[AnneD]

59. Our theme song.....

from Fleetwood Mac's album Rumors

Tell me Lies

If I could turn the page
In time then Id rearrange just a day or two
Close my, close my, close my eyes

But I couldnt find a way
So Ill settle for one day to believe in you
Tell me, tell me, tell me lies

Tell me lies
Tell me sweet little lies
(tell me lies, tell me, tell me lies)
Oh, no, no you cant disguise
(you cant disguise, no you cant disguise)
Tell me lies
Tell me sweet little lies

[Hugin]

63. Yay! It's Fleetwood Mac day on the SMW!

Woot!

:woohoo:

[Demeter]

8. Japan's Long-Awaited Inflation Saps Spending, Growth (Update2) By Mayumi Otsuma

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aCqqf.Vcq6FU&refer=home

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's decade-long fight against deflation may be over, only to be replaced by inflation that is sapping economic growth.

Central bank Governor Toshihiko Fukui has been predicting the economy's longest expansion in more than 60 years will spur profits and feed into wages and consumer spending, leading to steady price gains. Instead, prices are being driven by increasing oil and raw-materials costs, which is hurting profits and wages and eroding household spending power.

``After waiting so long, the Bank of Japan may well end up with the wrong sort of inflation,'' said Ben Eldred, a senior economist at Daiwa Securities SMBC Co. in London, a unit of Daiwa Securities Group Inc., Japan's second-biggest brokerage.

``Rising energy and food prices are bad news for firms and consumers and will provide a further headwind at a time when Japan already has to contend with a sharp slowdown in the U.S.,'' he said.

Consumer prices, excluding fresh food, rose 0.8 percent in December, the fastest pace in more than nine years and double November's 0.4 percent, the government said last week. Prices had been falling as recently as September.

Cost-driven inflation coupled with slower economic growth may make it more difficult for the central bank to implement its policy of gradually raising interest rates. Fukui said on Jan. 11 that higher oil and commodity costs, while putting pressure on consumer prices, are squeezing profits and weighing on growth.

ARTICLE CONTINUES... SOUNDS RATHER GRIM!

To contact the reporter on this story: Mayumi Otsuma in Tokyo at [email protected]

[Ghost Dog]

10. Asian Stocks Drop; Hyundai Heavy, Kyushu Electric Lead Decline

Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fell, led by South Korean shipbuilders and Japanese power producers, on concern slowing global growth and rising fuel costs will erode earnings.

Hyundai Heavy Industries Co. and Samsung Heavy Industries Co. plunged after Macquarie Group Ltd. recommended selling shares in the world's two largest shipyards. Kyushu Electric Power Co. tumbled the most in more than six years after cutting its profit forecast. HSBC Holdings Plc and Bank of China Ltd. retreated after UBS AG reported a record loss on about $14 billion of writedowns related to subprime mortgages.

``The U.S. economy is slowing down and to what extent is that affecting Asia?'' said Peter Hames, who manages $30 billion at Aberdeen Asset Management Ltd. in Singapore. ``Investors hate uncertainty and hence volatility in markets.''

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 1.3 percent to 141.46 at 6:12 p.m. in Tokyo, reversing an earlier gain of 0.8 percent. The benchmark is set for its worst month since September 2001. South Korea's Kospi Index fell 3 percent, the region's biggest decline.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped 1 percent to 13,345.03. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index slumped 2.6 percent. All other Asian benchmarks retreated apart from the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. Indonesia was little changed.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aRb6isiGIzUA&refer=asia

[Ghost Dog]

15. China storms depress Asian markets

Asia-Pacific markets fell on Wednesday as worries about the state of the global economy sharpened ahead of the US Federal Reserve's meeting, which is widely expected to result in a further cut in interest rates. Markets had started mildly higher, tracking Wall Streets gains overnight but the mood changed sharply as the day progressed.

South Korea led the region's decline by closing 3 per cent lower after investment bank Macquarie said orders for new vessels from the country's shipyards would slow. Hong Kong ended down 2.6 per cent and Singapore's Straits Times index closed 1.6 per cent lower at 3,000.03. Shanghai dropped 0.9 per cent to its lowest since early August as heavy snow continued to disrupt China.

The MSCI Asia Pacific index was 1.2 per cent lower by late afternoon in Tokyo, after gaining as much as 0.8 per cent earlier.

"There's been some pretty nasty price action and turnarounds," said Malcolm Wood, Asia Pacific equity strategist at Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong. He said volumes were low but nevertheless the change in mood was "perplexing". Markets seemed to be worried about the effect of the bad weather in China on inventory levels and production, he said, and nervous about what the Fed might do at its meeting later.

Gold remained volatile, dropping by a half per cent in early trading and then bouncing back to recoup most of its losses. Asian trading wound down at $922.83 an ounce for immediate delivery.

In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 average fell by 1 per cent to 13,345.03 and the broader Topix closed 0.6 per cent lower at 1,320.11. Energy companies and steel producers led the decline. Tokyo Gas slid 4.8 per cent to Y480 and Nippon Steel closed 2.5 per cent lower at Y632.

In South Korea, the Kospi slid by 3 per cent to 1,589.06, its lowest close since May. The index has dropped 18.2 per cent since the beginning of the year. The country's shipbuilders, some of the biggest in the world, led the market downwards. Macquarie cut the ratings for four of them to "underperform" from "outperform" on concerns that shipping lines might find it difficult to raise funds to buy new vessels.

Hyundai Heavy Industries, the world's biggest shipyard, slumped by 10.5 per cent to Won286,000, taking its share price back to levels last seen in the first wave of subprime turmoil on Asian markets in August. Samsung Heavy Industries lost 10.4 per cent to trade close to a nine-month low of Won25,400.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index closed 2.6 per cent down at 23,653.69 after rising as much as 1.4 per cent earlier. The Hang Seng index was 1.5 per cent lower at 23,918.72 by lunchtime. Billionaire Lee Shau-kee affected sentiment by downgrading his predictions on the Hang Seng index.

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20080130/bs_ft/fto013020080428535653

[Ghost Dog]

16. Honda net jumps as sales advance

TOKYO (Reuters) - Honda Motor Co (7267.T) posted a much stronger-than-expected 38 percent rise in quarterly profit on Wednesday, helped by sharp growth in overseas car sales, and lifted its annual earnings forecasts as it reined in spending.

Japan's second-biggest automaker and the world's top motorcycle maker raised its profit forecasts by 5-8 percent, above consensus market projections despite lowering its revenue outlook.

Citing the yen's fall against currencies other than the U.S. dollar, bigger cost cuts and smaller R&D outlays than first thought, it now expects operating profit to climb to 920 billion yen ($8.6 billion) for the year ending March 31, up from an earlier estimate of 880 billion.

That beats a consensus estimate of 900 billion yen from 18 brokerages and is 8 percent higher than its year-earlier result.

Honda lowered its revenue projections by 1.2 percent to 12.15 trillion yen as it cut its global sales volume target by35,000 cars.

Executive Vice President Koichi Kondo said the U.S. subprime loan fallout had not hurt Honda's car sales so far but it was hitting demand for motorcycles and power products badly.

"So far on the car business, it's neither negative nor positive," he told a news conference. "We're carefully monitoring the situation," he added, noting that Honda's U.S. sales in January likely held last year's level.

Honda lowered its forecast for global motorcycle shipments by 4 percent to 9.23 million bikes, and for power products by 5 percent.

Analysts are upbeat on Honda's growth prospects as it adds production capacity around the world -- from the emerging regions of China and Brazil to the mature U.S. and Japanese markets -- backed by healthy demand for its fuel-efficient cars.

Keeping up with demand has been one of Honda's main challenges due to its wariness over big capital outlays, but analysts said its recent expansion plans positioned it for a lift in 2008 and beyond.

Honda has a goal of selling at least 4.5 million cars in 2010, versus 3.76 million last year.

Kondo said there was risk of a profit slowdown in the next business year but stressed much would depend on currency swings.

"For this business year, the yen fell against many currencies such as the euro and the Brazilian real, and that helped offset the appreciation against the dollar," he said. "For next year, we'll have to see what the net impact is."

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080130/bs_nm/honda_results_dc;_ylt=AmvQbs.LeFcQk_F_KGOxFfy573QA

[Ghost Dog]

11. European stocks fall in early trade, UBS tumbles

Wed Jan 30, 2008 3:12am EST
PARIS, Jan 30 (Reuters) - European equities fell in early trade on Wednesday, as banking shares dropped after UBS (UBSN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research) posted an additional $4 billion in write-downs, while investors turned cautious ahead of a U.S. interest rate decision.

Shares in UBS lost 1.8 percent after the Swiss bank posted $11.5 billion loss for the last three months of 2007. The additional $4 billion in write-downs unveiled by the bank brings the total writedowns from its exposure to the U.S. subprime mortgage debacle to $18.4 billion.

At 0805 GMT, the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares was down 0.8 percent at 1,327.75 points. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by six to one on the index.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAL3052887920080130?rpc=44

[Ghost Dog]

12. Pressure mounts on Societe Generale ahead of board meet

PARIS (AFP) - Societe Generale chairman Daniel Bouton faced increasing pressure from French officials to answer for the rogue trader disaster rocking the bank ahead a meeting Wednesday of its board of directors.

Also Wednesday an association representing employee shareholders of Societe Generale said it had started legal action.

The association, ASSACT SG, said it was "its duty to contribute to shedding light on the recent disappointment of which all Societe Generale shareholders are victim, notably employees and former employees."

As questions swirled over Societe Generale's failure to prevent a junior trader racking up losses of 4.8 billion euros (7.1 billion dollars), Finance Minister Christine Lagarde stressed on Tuesday it was "up to board members" to decide on Bouton's future.

"Societe Generale is in crisis," she said, adding that "the board members are there to decide whether or not the person in charge is the best one to steer the ship or if a change of captain is needed."

The head of the French Senate finance committee, Jean Arthuis, went further: "I don't think Bouton has any choice but to leave."

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080130/ts_afp/francebankingcompanysocietegenerale_080130080611

[Ghost Dog]

13. UBS subprime losses mount, bank deep in red

ZURICH (Reuters) - Subprime-related problems at UBS AG (UBSN.VX) mounted on Wednesday as the Swiss bank unveiled $4 billion in new write-downs in a surprise statement and sank deep into the red for the year.

The latest disclosure lifted the bank's total write-downs from the subprime debacle to $18.4 billion and will likely increase pressure on chairman Marcel Ospel, at the UBS helm during its push into risky U.S. investments, to resign.

UBS, world banking's leading wealth manager, posted a 12.5 billion Swiss franc ($11.45 billion) loss for the last three months of 2007 and a full-year loss of 4.4 billion francs, a grim closure to its worst performance in history.

UBS shares fell 1.7 percent in early trading as analysts puzzled over the new losses, but later pared most losses.

"One could become very emotional about UBS -- continuously behind the curve in write-downs and hence always topping-up, exposure disclosure is poor to new write-downs, and management leadership vacuum," said analysts at investment bank J.P.Morgan.

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080130/bs_nm/ubs_results_dc

[Ghost Dog]

14. EU leaders call for transparency

The leaders of Europe's biggest economies have called on financial institutions to improve transparency in all their activities.

UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown met his French, German and Italian counterparts at Downing Street to discuss the recent global market turmoil.

The leaders also called on the IMF and other bodies to monitor risks better.

If the finance industry did not address their concerns, they said they would consider imposing regulatory measures.

"We need a better early warning system for the global economy," Mr Brown told reporters.

"We want the prompt and full disclosure of the write-offs that are now to take place as soon as possible; I think these are the immediate things people want to be done," Mr Brown said.

We want the kind of capitalism that promotes entrepreneurship not speculation
French President Nicolas Sarkozy

Banks have been reporting massive losses related to risky investments in the ailing US housing market.

Mr Brown said credit rating agencies, that assess the risks of financial instruments, needed to increase investors' understanding of complex products.

Rapid action

Mr Brown met German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi.

"We want the kind of capitalism that promotes entrepreneurship not speculation," said Mr Sarkozy afterwards.

"We can't let this lack of transparency jeopardise growth."

European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso also attended the discussion.

The leaders said in a statement that if financial institutions did not rapidly address their concerns, they were ready to introduce rules and regulations as an alternative to "market-led solutions".

/... http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7215873.stm

[Demeter]

68. And Which Mouse Is Actually Going to Bell That Cat?

Talk is cheap, Mr. Brown, Mr. Sarkozy!

[Robbien]

21. Writedowns By European Banks

LONDON -(Dow Jones)- The following is a list of subprime and credit market tightening related write-downs made by European banks up to Jan. 30. The banks have taken over $36 billion of charges and write-downs due to the crisis.
Switzerland's UBS AG (UBS) said Jan. 30 it has written off $14 billion for
2007. In December, UBS said it still owned about $29 billion in subprime holdings, but didn't update in January.

HSBC Holding PLC (HBC) of the U.K. Nov. 14 took an $3.4 billion impairment charge on future bad debt at its HSBC Finance Unit for the third quarter. Nov. 26, it moved $45 billion in assets onto its balance sheet after it was forced to bail out two structured investment vehicles, or SIVs.

France's Credit Agricole SA (4507.FR) Dec. 20 said that it would take a $3.7 billion pretax writedown in its 2007 earnings on its super-senior collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, and to strengthen provisions against the group's exposure to specialist bond insurers.

Germany's Deutsche Bank AG (DB) Oct. 31 said it would have to write down around $3.25 billion related to its subprime exposure, mainly on CDOs and residential mortgage-backed securities. It said at the time it didn't expect any fourth-quarter write-downs.

France's Societe Generale SA (13080.FR) Jan. 24 announced a $3.03 billion write-down related to its exposure to the U.S. subprime sector. It wrote-off EUR4.8 billion due to alleged fraud by a single trader.

The U.K.'s Barclays PLC (BCS) Nov. 15 disclosed $2.55 billion of write-downs at its Barclays Capital unit.

The Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC (RBS) of the U.K. Dec. 6 made a total $2.45 billion net write-down on its own and ABN Amro's subprime exposure. It had several billion dollars of exposure to high-grade collateral debt obligations, mezzanine CDOs and subprime mortgages and wrote-down its positions between 10% and 54%.

Switzerland's Credit Suisse Group (CS) Nov. 1 announced a $2 billion write-down, split between leveraged loans it couldn't sell on to investors after demand dried up and for residential- and commercial mortgages and CDOs.

Belgian-Dutch bank Fortis NV (FORSY) Jan. 28 said fallout from the subprime crisis could have an impact of up to $1.48 billion on its bottom line.

Several other European banks, including Lloyds TSB Group PLC (LYG), HBOS PLC (HBOS.LN), and Alliance & leicester PLC (AL.LN) of the U.K., France's BNP Paribas SA (13110.FR), and Germany's Commerzbank AG (CBK.XE) have announced write-downs of under $1 billion.

http://www.easybourse.com/bourse-actualite/credit-agricole/update-at-a-glance-writedowns-by-european-banks-FR0000045072-384248

Although they keep throwing the subprime word around, most of these bad debts sound to me to be leveraged debt instruments.

[Ghost Dog]

49. falsely-sold leveraged debt instruments and derivatives, yes. n/t

[Ghost Dog]

23. European shares drift lower, all eyes on Fed

Wed Jan 30, 2008 7:17am EST
LONDON, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Banks led European shares nearly 0.5 percent lower by midday on Wednesday after UBS (UBSN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research) shocked investors with a fresh writedown and investors fretted about how deep a likely Federal Reserve rate cut would be.

At 1152 GMT, the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares was down 0.47 percent at 1,332.13 points, a loss of 11.6 percent so far in January, with just one full trading day left. The index is on course for its worst month since September 2002.

Shares in UBS lost 1.5 percent after the Swiss bank posted an $11.5 billion loss for the last three months of 2007.

Its additional $4 billion in write-downs lifted the total cost of its exposure to the U.S. subprime mortgage debacle to $18.4 billion so far.

Barclays (BARC.L: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 1.5 percent, HSBC (HSBA.L: Quote, Profile, Research) was 1.2 percent lower, and BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) down 2.2 percent, the French bank falling after saying it expected fourth-quarter profits to be lower than a year earlier.

...

downbeat note from Goldman Sachs sent car stocks sharply lower. Renault (RENA.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 4.6 percent, and Continental (CONG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) lost 3.7 percent. BMW (BMWG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) bucked the trend, rising 1.6 percent after posting strong sales.

Oil shares were among the heaviest weighted losers, despite crude trading above $92 a barrel. Total (TOTF.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) was down 2.3 percent.

...

Around Europe, Germany's DAX index .GDAXI was down 0.4 percent, UK's FTSE 100 index .FTSE down 0.5 percent, and France's CAC 40 .FCHI down 1.4 percent, depressed by car stocks.

Shares in Rio Tinto (RIO.L: Quote, Profile, Research) were up 3 percent as traders cited market talk that the miner was opening up its books to suitor BHP Billiton (BLT.L: Quote, Profile, Research). Rio said it had nothing to disclose.

Earlier, Australian newspapers reported that Rio's financial advisers had suggested that BHP Billiton could afford to raise its offer by at least 42 percent to $157 billion.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAL3066720520080130?rpc=611

[Ghost Dog]

40. Spanish economy grew by 3.8 percent in 2007: central bank

MADRID (AFP) - Spain's economy expanded by 3.8 percent last year, after growing 3.9 percent in 2006, according to an estimate by the country's central bank published Wednesday in its monthly bulletin.

Gross domestic product expanded by 3.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007 compared with the same period last year, down from 3.8 percent in the third quarter, it added.

The central bank's forecasts are in line with those of the Socialist government of Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero which is facing a general election on March 9 in which economic issues are dominating the campaign.

The national statistics institute will publish preliminary gross domestic product figures on February 14 and final figures on February 20.

A series of recent weak economic indicators suggest a construction-led economic boom is cooling in Spain due to higher interest rates, stagnating property prices and tightening credit conditions.

Spain's unemployment rate rose to 8.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007 from 8.3 percent in the year-earlier period, the first such rise since 2003 while the yearly inflation rate hit 4.3 percent in December, its highest level in over a decade.

/. http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080130/bs_afp/spaineconomygrowthbank;_ylt=A0WTcUJEfaBHlVwB5QFvaA8F

[Ghost Dog]

41. Polish economy grows 6.5%

Poland’s economy grew by 6.5 per cent last year, the fastest pace in a decade, the country’s statistical agency reported on Wednesday, a figure that matched analysts’ expectations.

Jozef Olenski, the agency’s head, attributed the performance to strong production and construction, particularly residential building, which boomed last year. Investments for the year also rose by 20 per cent

However, gross domestic product growth is expected to slow this year to about 5 per cent, said Piotr Kalisz, chief economist for Citi Handlowy, the Polish affiliate of Citibank.

“We can see a significant slowing compared to last year, but for Poland 5 per cent is about the natural level of growth,” he said. “Growth above that means an increase in inflationary pressures.”

Recent strong growth has pushed inflation to 4 per cent. Companies are also reporting increasing problems in finding workers and public employees are threatening strikes as they try to catch up with private sector wages, which rose by about 12 per cent last year.

The stresses on the economy caused by fast growth prompted the central bank’s interest rate setting Monetary Policy Council to raise rates by a quarter point on Wednesday to 5.25 per cent. The council began a tightening cycle last April, raising rates five times.

/... http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a710b3c2-cf33-11dc-854a-0000779fd2ac.html

[Ghost Dog]

77. European stocks skid ahead of Fed rate decision (close)

Wed Jan 30, 2008 12:40pm EST
LONDON, Jan 30 (Reuters) - European equities closed weaker on Wednesday as new write-downs at UBS (UBSN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research) hit many banks, while investors were also concerned about how deeply the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates later in the day.

Among standout movers, Societe Generale (SOGN.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) rose 4 percent on persistent talk of a bid for the French bank, weakened after being roiled in a rogue trading scandal.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index finished 0.7 percent lower at 1,329.4 points after rising 1.6 percent on Tuesday. The index is down 12 percent so far in January, putting it on course for its worst month since September 2002.

"This is a very shaky market, trading in an environment with poor visibility," said Philipp Musil, a portfolio manager at Constantia Privatbank in Vienna.

"To be honest, valuing the market seriously is not possible, given the uncertainty, and we're keeping a lot of funds -- 10 to 20 percent -- in cash."

...

Around Europe, Germany's DAX index .GDAXI was down 0.3 percent, the UK FTSE 100 index .FTSE fell 0.8 percent and France's CAC 40 .FCHI lost 1.4 percent, hit by car stocks.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAL3071070620080130?rpc=611

[Ghost Dog]

17. Subprime crisis draws FBI scrutiny as Fed meets

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The shadow of an FBI investigation spread across the subprime mortgage crisis on Tuesday, while the U.S. Congress moved closer to emergency relief for millions of distressed homeowners.

With the Federal Reserve kicking off a two-day meeting where it might cut interest rates further, the stock market rebounded after whipsawing investors for days on fears that the subprime slump could lead to a recession.

But while the market's bears pulled in their claws for the time being, a new potential danger emerged for bankers and brokers involved in the housing price bubble that burst months ago, triggering the present credit crunch.

The FBI said it is investigating 14 corporations over possible accounting fraud and insider trading violations in a crackdown on subprime lending. The companies were not named.

The agency said they include developers, lenders and financiers that securitized ordinary home loans into exotic investment instruments, as well as banks that held them.

The FBI said it is cooperating with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which has confirmed opening at least three dozen investigations related to the subprime mortgage market.

Goldman Sachs (GS.N), Morgan Stanley (MS.N) and Bear Stearns (BSC.N) -- among Wall Street's largest banks -- each said on Tuesday that government investigators are seeking information from them about their subprime activities.

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080130/bs_nm/subprime_dc;_ylt=AqAAKgHasEc0zjmaql7wkiO573QA

[Ghost Dog]

19. FBI investigates sub-prime crisis

The FBI is investigating 14 companies embroiled in the sub-prime mortgage crisis as part of a crackdown on improper lending.

It did not identify the companies but said the investigation encompassed developers, sub-prime lenders and investment banks.

FBI officials said the agency was looking at instances of accounting fraud and insider trading.

The cases could lead to potential civil or criminal charges, the FBI said.

...

The FBI said it was investigating the cases with the US market regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The SEC has opened about three dozen investigations into the collapse of the sub-prime market.

Targets of the SEC probe include Swiss bank UBS and US banks Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch and Bear Stearns, Reuters news agency reported.

It was not clear whether any of these firms were involved in the FBI investigation.

/... http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7216602.stm

[AnneD]

65. I was hearing about this...

on NPR this morning. Each of the fraud cases they are looking at (and there are 10's of thousands now)and each one is at least over a million each. Another S&L type scandal is shaping up. Let me think-who was President during that scandal:think:

[Andy Canuck]

18. I think there has been a turn in market power

and now Asia and European markets are going to start leading the US and other N. American markets. For the time being the Asian markets will appear to be doing their own thing, not necessarily in sync with US markets, but eventually the US markets activity will follow the Asian and European markets.

[Ghost Dog]

24. Yes, I think that is increasingly, de facto, so.

But the US MSM will be extremely reluctant to modify its generally cretinizing spin.

[Robbien]

29. The new ASEAN group of countries

certainly seems to be emerging as a powerful entity. It seemed to have a good deal of influence at Davos 2008.

The world is busy doing its own business and no longer seems to stop when the US/UK speaks.

[TalkingDog]

33. But, hey, good news for us then.

We'll have somebody to point the finger at. - We didn't crash, Europe and Asia dragged us down -

Because it's allllll about avoiding responsibility. (And if you don't like this message, Ozy told me to say it.)



My Favorite Master Artist: Karen Parker GhostWoman Studios

[AnneD]

70. Reminds me of a skit Bill Cosby use to do....

He blamed his wife for the fact that they had nothing but girls for the longest time. He said his wife would try to tell him about the male and female chromosomes, but he wouldn't buy it. The way he figured...the sex was the fault of the person who had it last.:spray:

It is a big juicy rationalization on the part of the media, but I do believe we are seeing an end to the Pax Americana so to speak. The M$M are arrogant, stupid, clueless, shit for brains, Barbie and Ken Wannabees whose heads are only useful as hat racks. But let me tell you what I really think......

[Ghost Dog]

103. Careful, AnneD: No flamebait allowed...

He's laughing with another girl
And playing with another heart
Placing high stakes, making hearts ache
He's loved in seven languages
Jewel box life diamond nights and ruby lights, high in the sky
Heaven help him, when he falls
Diamond life, lover boy
He move in space with minimum waste and maximum joy
City lights and business nights
When you require streetcar desire for higher heights

No place for beginners or sensitive hearts
When sentiment is left to chance
No place to be ending but somewhere to start

No need to ask
He's a smooth operator
Smooth operator, smooth operator
Smooth operator

Coast to coast, LA to Chicago, western male
Across the north and south, to Key Largo, love for sale

Face to face, each classic case
We shadow box and double cross
Yet need the chase

A license to love, insurance to hold
Melts all your memories and change into gold
His eyes are like angels but his heart is cold

No need to ask
He's a smooth operator
Smooth operator, smooth operator
Smooth operator

Coast to coast, LA to Chicago, western male
Across the north and south, to Key Largo, love for sale

Smooth operator, smooth operator
Smooth operator, smooth operator
Smooth operator, smooth operator
Smooth operator, smooth operator
Smooth operator, smooth operator

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1Aj2yODys0&NR=1

[Ghost Dog]

20. Euro= USD 1.481, GBP 0.743, CHF 1.613 and JPY 158.5 at this time

[Roland99]

26. Just wait for the fed cut, then it will get ugly.

[Ghost Dog]

61. Euro= USD 1.480, GBP 0.745, CHF 1.616 and JPY 159.2 at this time

[Ghost Dog]

102. Euro= USD 1.489, GBP 0.747, CHF 1.612 and JPY 159.3 at this time

[UpInArms]

25. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 75.374 Change -0.174 (-0.23%)

Dollar At A Standstill Ahead of the Fed

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio2/Dollar_At_A_Standstill_Ahead_1201688142183.html

Another grinding session of listless trade in Asia and Europe today as markets appear to have come to a standstill ahead of the FOMC rate decision due today at 19:15GMT. The EURUSD has traded in a 20 point range for the past 12 hours as traders square up for the key event risk of the week.

The consensus view is that the Fed will cut 50bp today, but as we point out in Will The Fed Surprise The Markets And Push The Dollar Higher? an argument can be made that the US monetary officials will only lower rates by 25bp this time. In either case, volatility which has been practically absent for the past 2 days, is likely to return once the Fed renders its judgment and the markets make their adjustments.

Although a 50bp cut is expected by the vast majority of market participants, we believe that such a move, which would expand euro rate advantage over the dollar by full 100bp, would prove to be dollar negative. The EURUSD has had tremendous difficulty penetrating the 1.4800 barrier as option activity has kept the euro longs at bay, but should the Fed cut rate by 50bp that price level is likely to fall, especially if the accompanying statement suggests that the Fed will continue to ease for the foreseeable future.

In economic news the Retail PMI numbers out of Europe showed an improvement bouncing back to 48.1 from 46.0 mainly on the strength of French spending. Although the data remains mired below the 50 boom/bust level, it has stopped contracting and as such must provide a dose of relief to European monetary officials who have been accused of keeping policy too restrictive amidst lackluster consumer demand in the region.

Looking ahead to the North American session, the ADP and GDP numbers may provide some short term excitement before the key FOMC announcement later in the day. With consensus view so heavily skewed towards a recession scenario in the US, any positive surprises could provide a boost for the buck, but the true direction of trade in the currency is likely to be determined by the Fed action this afternoon.

...more...

How Much Will the Fed Cut at Its January Meeting: 25bp or 50bp?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/How_Much_Will_the_Fed_1201647865015.html

All eyes are locked on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision tomorrow afternoon. The price action of the US dollar has been mixed since the beginning of the week indicating that traders are not ruling out any surprises. Fed fund futures are pricing in a 72 percent chance of a 50bp rate cut and a 28 percent chance of a more conservative 25bp cut. Of the 86 economists polled by Bloomberg, 49 expect a 50bp cut, 23 expect a 25bp cut, while 13 expect rates to be left unchanged (the one remaining economist believes that there will be a 75bp rate cut). DailyFX readers actually actually favor a 25bp rate cut over a 50bp cut and interestingly enough, the votes between 50bp and nothing at all are very close. In other words, the consensus across the markets is not very strong. We believe that the Fed will nod to the markets once again and cut by 50bp. Shortly after the emergency rate cut, there was a decent chance that the Fed could make two back to back 75bp rate cuts. But since then, traders have become far more realistic by realizing that the world has not come to an end and stocks have stabilized. As a result, rate cut expectations have eased significantly. Since the emergency rate cut last week, stocks have rebounded 800 points, durable goods increased strongly in the month of December, gold prices have hit record highs while oil prices regained strength. The housing market still remains vulnerable with house prices as measured by the Case Shiller index falling to the lowest level in 7 years. The choice between a 25bp or 50bp rate cut is really the choice between being “at the curve” or “ahead of it.” By the end of this year, we expect interest rates to come down to at least 2.50 percent, which is 100bp from current levels. The Fed can get half of that easing out of the way on Wednesday and enjoy the benefits of easy monetary policy throughout the second half of the year or they could cut by only 25bp and work for each tenth of a percentage point increase in GDP. Either way, there is a slim chance of the FOMC rate decision being dollar bullish because tomorrow’s rate cut will certainly not be their last. Before the rate decision, there could be some action with the ADP employment change and the advance release of fourth quarter GDP.

...more...

[DemReadingDU]

27. Mike Whitney: The Great Credit Unwind of 2008

1/29/08 An Inverted Pyramid of Subprime Slop by Mike Whitney

some snippets...

Some of the largest bond insurers are are currently unable to cover the losses that are piling up from the meltdown in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and collateralized debt obligations (CDO). Their business model is hopelessly broken and they will require an immediate $143 billion bailout to maintain operations. The largest of the bond insurers is MBIA. Here's stock analyst Michael Lewitt, quoted in Bloomberg:

"MBIA's total exposure to bonds backed by mortgages and CDOs was disclosed to be $30.6 billion, including $8.14 billion of holdings of CDO-squareds (eds note; pure garbage). MBIA was being priced as a weak CCC-rated credit when it issued its bonds last week; it is now being priced for a bankruptcy. MBIA's stock, which traded just under $68 per share last October, dropped another $3.50 this morning to under $10.00 per share."

Barclay's estimates that the investment banks alone are holding as much as $615 billion of structured securities guaranteed by bond insurers. If the insurers default, hundreds of billions will be lost via downgrades.

So, in practical terms, what does it mean if the bond insurers go under? It means that the system will freeze and the stock market will crash.

more...
http://www.counterpunch.org/whitney01292008.html

[Tansy_Gold]

94. Wait a minute! Wait a minute! I got a question! (or six)

Please help me understand this, if you can:

The banks hold $615bn in "structured securities," which are MBSes, CDOs, SIVs, etc? Is that correct? (Sub-prime mortgage $300k @ 6%, due to reset to 8.5%, interest only loan, real estate value rising = book value of $600k????)

The banks perceive a drop in the value of these "structured securities" as borrowers default, property values decline, etc., so to cover their loss they get a bail-out from their insurers. Kinda like when you buy a house and get homebuyer's insurance so when the cosmetic fixes the seller put in place start falling apart, you can recoup the cost of actually fixing them??

But now the insurers -- who had to invest the "premiums" the banks paid somewhere, or didn't they???? -- are facing more losses than they can cover, so are they the ones who are going to get the govt. bail-out a la the S&Ls in the late 80s???

However, isn't there at the bottom of this oozing pile of crap something of actual value, namely the real estate and the house(s) built on it? Isn't that ultimately worth SOMETHING? Who will end up "owning" it? Do we even know? (Does it even matter?)

Back in November, there was an article in the NYT about the shady shenanigans some of the mortgage lenders and/or loan servicing agencies were engaging in related to foreclosures and bankruptcies. They were piling on fees and other charges that often were illegal, forcing borrowers to pay thousands and thousands of dollars in unnecessary charges. Sometimes they were charging borrowers even though someone else actually held the mortgage!! Bankruptcy courts sometimes fixed the problems, but the article didn't say anything about borrowers who weren't yet in bankruptcy or foreclosure. And I kept thinking -- when it's all over, who owns that property?

I'm dealing with one of those shady loan servicing agencies right now, trying to get title to my house after paying off the mortgage in October. The servicing agency is demanding an additional $700 in fees but has not given me anything in writing beyond an email. I've been to a lawyer, but he won't even write them a letter unless I can demonstrate I have the assets to cover his legal fees AND the potential legal costs of the servicing agency in the event he loses the case. He knows, and they know, that I'm not going to lose my home over $700, even if I don't actually owe them the money -- but I also don't have any guarantee they won't come back with another "forgotten" fee, and another, and another.

So I'm curious as to what happens to the ownership of the actual physical property that's ultimately backing these sub-prime loans -- unlike the $615bn, it's not just a number in someone's ledger: it's a house and a home and real people live there.

Tansy Gold, off topic as usual

[TalkingDog]

100. Maybe you are one of the "lucky" ones. Maybe they have "misplaced" the paperwork.

However, emails are legal documents. Just ask Dick Cheney. All kidding aside: the spousal unit works for an Architect. Any documents, including email, are required by law to be saved in the job folder for insurance and professional licensing purposes as legal documents.

Just DON'T alter it in any way shape or form. Save it. Print it out for good measure.

And write back and see if you can fish more concrete information out of them.

Just in case, set up a bank account (as an escrow account) putting monies owed in the account. If it comes to a court case, you can then show a good faith effort in putting aside what you "owe" if it becomes apparent that you are legally obligated to pay.

There are non-profits dealing with the ARMs mess right now, offering free advice. You may qualify since there seems to be a question about who owns your title. Sorry I can't remember the names, but a quick Google might help.

Not being a huge fan of bureaucracies myself, I wish you good luck.

[Tansy_Gold]

111. Email was saved, printed out, saved again, faxed to Title Company. . .

responsible for original error that led to others that led to others. Long story, far too OT for SMW. It just pisses me off no end to see these Wall Street types handed $60MM bonuses for creating bubbles that people like me and you and lots of others are paying for.

I just needed to vent.


TG

[DemReadingDU]

101. When we paid our house off 5 years ago,

I was looking for a paper to be sent to me that the mortgage was completed. Nothing.

So I called the county courthouse, and eventually I was routed to a person at the Recorder's office who said all I need to do was go online, and print it out. I have no idea why it couldn't be sent to me.

:shrug:


edit to add: It is called

Satisfaction of Mortgage - We hereby acknowledge full satisfaction of Mortgage from < our names>

It was signed and notarized by 5 different people.

[DemReadingDU]

28. More snippets from Whitney

So, how did things get so bad, so fast? How could the world's most resilient, reliable and profitable markets be transformed into a carnival show peddling poisonous "mortgage-backed" snake-oil to every gullible investor?
Author and stock market soothsayer Pam Martens puts it like this

"How could a layered concoction of questionable debt pools, many of dubious origin, achieve the equivalent AAA rating as U.S. Treasury securities, backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government, and time-tested over a century of panics, crashes and the Great Depression?

How did a 200-year old "efficient" market model that priced its securities based on regular price discovery through transparent trading morph into an opaque manufacturing and warehousing complex of products that didn't trade or rarely traded, necessitating pricing based on statistical models?"

The answer to all these questions is "deregulation". The financial system has been handed over to scam-artists and fraudsters who've created a multi-trillion dollar inverted pyramid of shaky, hyper-inflated, subprime slop that they've sold around the world with the tacit support of the ratings agencies and the US political establishment."
http://www.counterpunch.org/whitney01292008.html


edit to add article by Pam Martens...
1/3/08 The Free Market Myth Dissolves into Chaos
How Wall Street Evolved from a Trading Epicenter to an Offshore Manufacturer of Black Holes
http://www.counterpunch.org/martens01032008.html

[Hugin]

64. Both great reading, DemReadingDU.

Thanks for posting.

Lots of good reading here today. :)

[UpInArms]

30. CFO optimism plunges on recession fears

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSN2945487220080130?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&sp=true

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Recession fears are weighing heavily on U.S. corporate finance chiefs, pushing optimism down to a fresh three-year low, according to a survey on Wednesday.

The quarterly survey from Financial Executives International (FEI) and Baruch College showed its optimism index sank 6.6 points, as nearly every chief financial officer polled said they were as concerned or more concerned about recession than they were in the previous quarter.

"CFOs have steadily for three years been expressing less confidence about the economy, so they've been seeing something coming," said Michael Cangemi, president of FEI, a trade group for finance chiefs, treasurers and corporate comptrollers.

"I think this credit crisis and the market has really got them spooked."

Of the 361 CFOs polled, 73 percent said they were more concerned about a recession in the United States in the next 12 months.

Economic growth ranked as their companies' top economic worry, followed by concerns about consumer spending, inflation and oil costs.

Weakness in the dollar was also a worry, with nearly 46 percent of CFOs saying the decline would have a negative impact on their business. Twenty-six percent of CFOs said the weaker dollar would have a positive impact on their business.

...more...

[Roland99]

36. These CFOs just need to start watching CNBC.

Problem solved.

[UpInArms]

31. Lazard CEO Bruce Wasserstein gets $96.3 mln stock award

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSWEN365420080130

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Lazard Ltd (LAZ.N: Quote, Profile, Research) Chairman and Chief Executive Bruce Wasserstein received restricted stock worth $96.3 million as part of new five-year employment agreement, the merger advisory firm said on Wednesday.

<snip>

Under his former employment agreement, Wasserstein received an annual base salary of $4.8 million and incentive compensation. For 2007, he received incentive restricted stock worth $36.2 million, the company said.

Lazard shares on Tuesday closed at $35.66. The stock is down 31 percent over the past year.

...more at link...

[Robbien]

32. France's rogue trader freed after escaping fraud charges

Accused French rogue trader Jerome Kerviel walked free after judges placed him under formal investigation Monday but stopped short of charging him with fraud. Shares in the French bank took a battering as allegations emerged that a board member was guilty of insider trading related to the scandal.

Kerviel was freed on bail after being placed under formal investigation for "breach of trust", "falsifying and using falsified documents," and "breaching IT procedures".

. . .

Kerviel had held positions worth about 50 billion euros (73 billion dollars) when irregularities were first detected -- well in excess of the bank's market value of 35.9 billion euros

http://www.macaudailytimesnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=6254&Itemid=33

One trader had positions whose values were twice as much as the bank was worth, and this low level trader was acting on his own? No one else knew?

[UpInArms]

34. U.S. 10-city home price drop a record in Nov: S&P

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSNAT00364920080129

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Home prices in 10 major metropolitan areas fell a record 8.4 percent in the year through November, suggesting the housing slump is worsening, according to a Standard & Poor index released on Tuesday.

The decline in the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index topped the 6.7 percent annual drop for October and was deeper than predicted by economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. The consensus was for a 7.1 percent fall, Goldman economists said.

Home prices across big cities have now declined for 11 consecutive months and show little sign of bottoming, said economists, including Robert Shiller, a founder of the index and chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC. The decline in the index accelerated to 2.2 percent in November over October, from 1.4 percent in the previous month, S&P said.

The index "confirms our outlook that the housing shock is by no means over," said Michelle Meyer, an economist at Lehman Brothers in New York. "Home prices are falling in response to weak demand, which is a function of buyer sentiment and tight credit conditions."

Falling U.S. home prices in the past year have fueled rising delinquencies and foreclosures, with homeowners unable to get out of costly loans. Banks and investors, throttled by losses in risky mortgages, have sharply curtailed financing for all but the most credit-worthy borrowers.

...more...

[JNelson6563]

57. Ruh-roh

This is looking more and more like a snowball rapidly heading down a snowy hill. Rapidly increasing in size and speed....

Julie

[NickB79]

108. And we're the kid at the bottom of the hill

Making futile attempts to get out of the way.

Oh no, he just slipped and fell down!

[InkAddict]

56. WaMu CEO sees boost from Fed rate cuts

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8UFLQE01.htm

(all snipped up)

WaMu, the country's largest savings and loan, swung to a loss in the final quarter of 2007 after writing down $1.6 billion to account for the sinking value of its home loan portfolio, and setting aside $1.53 billion to cover future loan losses.

Anecdotally, the CEO said troubled borrowers are moving from 30 days late with a payment to foreclosure "a little faster," but said there were no data available

(versus):

Killinger estimated that every quarter-percent rate cut by the Fed will add $150 million to the thrift's net interest income.

(so)

Killinger announced that WaMu will open 100 to 150 new bank branches in 2008, in cities where the thrift already has a presence.

[Robbien]

73. Every quarter percent rate cut increases their net interest income

and decreases net interest income paid out to savings accounts and money markets of the general public. A few win and many lose.

Nice way to get more money into the hands of consumers. NOT!

[donkeyotay]

82. Never have so many suffered so much for so few

Saving for retirement is a joke. You can play the casino via mutual funds and get left holding the Enrons of the world. You can park it in a money market type investment and get whapped upside the head when some manager reaches for a better return. Or, you can put it in the bank and get bupkiss for it while the fed bails out the speculator-banker class. If you avoided the worst of the corruption, now you can watch inflation eat your savings.

[antigop]

66. Britain plans to overhaul banking system (new regulations aimed at preventing bank runs)

http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/30/news/international/british_banking.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008013007

Treasury chief plans new regulations aimed at preventing bank runs; Bank of England governor appointed for second term.

Britain's Treasury chief on Wednesday announced plans to overhaul Britain's banking regulations to prevent future runs on banks similar to what mortgage lender Northern Rock experienced last year.

The government also said Bank of England Governor Mervyn King had been reappointed for a second five-year term as Bank of England governor. King is chairman of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee.

Treasury Chief Alastair Darling said the regulatory changes were aimed at better protecting depositors and ensuring financial stability.

The Treasury has been under pressure to come up with new proposals following a run on the Northern Rock bank in September -- Britain's biggest casualty of the global credit crisis.

[Capn Sunshine]

71. Its a half point

keep your triggers tight

[Roland99]

72. How long before pundits start clamoring, "It's not enough. should have been 75bps"

:eyes:

[Hugin]

75. I give it less than an hour.

*sets timer* :eyes:

[Robbien]

78. Cramer is on now

His statement was "The Feds are on the right path".

Not exactly give us some more but he certainly implies the walk down the path is not done.

[Roland99]

95. Wonder what his excuse will be when foreign investment screeches to a halt?

Japan and China are gonna keep buying Treasuries yielding 1%?

[Ghost Dog]

79. US stocks up sharply on aggresssive Fed move

NEW YORK, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Wall Street stocks climbed sharply on Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve made an aggressive half-percentage-point cut in key interest rates in a move to bolster a U.S. economy that staggered toward recession at year end.

The dollar fell sharply, and key commodities recovered from early declines. U.S. Treasury bonds cut earlier losses.

Before the Fed decision, traders were evenly split over whether the central bank would cut benchmark U.S. rates by half a percentage point or a quarter point in its two-day policy meeting.

In trading just after the cut, the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was up 78.04 points, or 0.63 percent, at 12,558.34. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was up 9.02 points, or 0.66 percent, at 1,371.32. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was up 15.08 points, or 0.64 percent, at 2,373.14.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN3022721420080130?rpc=611

[Ghost Dog]

80. Dollar falls vs euro as Fed cuts rates half point

NEW YORK, Jan 30 (Reuters) - The dollar fell sharply against the euro on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve slashed benchmark interest rates by half a percentage point and said the U.S. economy still faces downside growth risks.

...

"The language in the statement was fairly strong, suggesting the Fed is still worried with the possibility of further deterioration in the U.S. economy," said Mark Meadows, analyst at Tempus Consulting in Washington, D.C.

The euro surged to $1.4880 <EUR=> after the move, up 0.5 percent on the day, boosted by the widening gap between U.S. and euro zone interest rates. It last traded at $1.4869.

The dollar index, a gauge of the greenback against a basket of currencies, hit a two-month low .DXY.

/.. http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN3022735720080130?rpc=611

[citizen snips]

81. Boeing Boosts 4Q Profit on Plane Sales

CHICAGO (AP) -- Boeing Co. rode continued momentum from its commercial airplane business to a 4 percent increase in fourth-quarter profits Wednesday, topping Wall Street's expectations despite ongoing concerns over delays in its 787 Dreamliner program.

The world's second-largest commercial jet maker said it continues to address problems in assembling the first 787s and slightly reduced its estimate for both 2008 revenue and deliveries because of the previously announced glitches. It said it remains on the revised schedule announced earlier this month for the new plane, which has been pushed back three times and now isn't due to enter service until next year, but won't assess the impact of the delays on 2009 results until April.

The company characterized the outlook for its military contracting business and commercial airplane programs next year as "very strong," with strong earnings growth anticipated.

That helped lift Boeing shares, which had fallen 30 percent since last fall, by $2.82, or 3.5 percent, $83.78 in midday trading.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080130/earns_boeing.html

[citizen snips]

83. Eastman Kodak 4Q Profit Rises

ROCHESTER, N.Y. (AP) -- Eastman Kodak Co., wrapping up a four-year digital makeover, hauled in a much higher $215 million profit in the fourth quarter, lifted by a 15 percent bump in digital sales and a jump-start in the lucrative inkjet printer market.

The photography products maker said Wednesday it earned the equivalent of 71 cents a share in the October-December quarter, up from $16 million, or 6 cents a share, a year earlier.

Sales rose 4 percent to $3.22 billion from $3.11 billion a year earlier.

Excluding one-time items of $28 million, or 9 cents a share, operating profits came to $120 million, or 40 cents a share. That was below the 52 cents a share forecast by analysts polled by Thomson Financial. But the sales topped analysts' consensus estimate of $3.1 billion.

Kodak shares, which had skidded to a 30-year low of $16.66 in mid-January, lost 85 cents, or 4.2 percent, to $19.60 in late morning trading.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080130/earns_eastman_kodak.html

[citizen snips]

84. Long-Term Bonds Drop As Fed Cuts Rates

NEW YORK (AP) -- Long-term Treasury prices sold off and stocks rallied Wednesday after the Federal Reserve approved a widely expected interest rate cut and left the door open to future rate decreases.

The Fed slashed the Fed funds rate by half a percentage point to 3 percent. The move followed a 0.75 percentage point decrease in the rate put in place just last week. The Fed funds rate is the interest banks charge each other on overnight loans.

The Fed in an accompanying policy statement said financial markets remain under "considerable stress" and that credit has tightened for some businesses and households, while the housing contraction has deepened. The central bank's Open Market Committee said it was acting to address those risks, and it also reassured investors it will act in a timely manner when necessary to address future risks and stimulate the economy.

"The statement does not say, but we expect to see in the minutes, that the Fed's new forecasts are much gloomier than in October," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. Minutes of the Fed's meetings are usually released six weeks later.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080130/bonds.html?.v=5

[citizen snips]

85. Sector Glance: Gold Producers

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of gold producers rose Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the second time this month, sending gold prices soaring in afternoon trading.

The U.S. central bank cut the federal funds rate by a half point to 3 percent.

Just after the Fed decision, gold for April delivery jumped $4.70 to $935.50 an ounce in aftermarket trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold earlier settled $4.50 lower to $926.30 an ounce as investors awaited a final decision.

The cuts undermine an already weak dollar by making it cheaper to obtain credit, and subsequently bolster precious metals prices. The dollar and the price of gold usually move inversely, as each is considered a hedge against the other.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080130/gold_sector_glance.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

86. Sector Glance: Conglomerates

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of major manufacturers gained ground Wednesday after the Federal Reserve cut a key interest rate by half of one percentage point, as expected.

The central bank lowered the federal funds rate to 3.0 percent from 3.5 percent, eight days after cutting it by three-quarters of a percentage point in response to concerns about a U.S. recession.

Here is how some key stocks in the sector were performing Wednesday afternoon:

General Electric Co. up 84 cents to $35.60

Honeywell International Inc. up 59 cents to $59.03

3M Co. up $1.08 to $79.11

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080130/conglomerates_sector_glance.html?.v=2

[citizen snips]

87. Sector Glance: Utilities Rise After Cut

NEW YORK (AP) -- Utility stocks mostly rose Wednesday, adding to early gains after the Federal Reserve cut a key interest rate by half a percentage point.

The central bank lowered the benchmark federal funds rate to 3 percent, its second cut in just over a week, and signaled it may not yet be finished cutting the cost of money.

The Dow Jones Utility Average rose 0.9 percent to 497.26 shortly after the cut was announced. Broader indexes also rose. The Dow Jones industrial average advanced 0.9 percent to 12,591.67.

Here is how several major stocks in the utility sector performed in afternoon trading:

American Electric Power Co. Inc., up 13 cents to $42.86.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080130/utilities_sector_glance.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

88. Gold Surges on Fed Decision

NEW YORK (AP) -- Gold jumped in aftermarket trading Wednesday after the Federal Reserve slashed its key interest rate -- an inflationary move that boosted the metal's appeal as a stable investment.

The Fed cut its benchmark federal funds rate by a widely expected half percentage point, following a bold three-quarter-point reduction last week that was aimed at staving off a U.S. recession.

Minutes after the Fed decision, gold for April delivery jumped $4.70 to $935.50 an ounce in after market trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold earlier settled $4.50 lower at $926.30 an ounce as investors waited to see if the central bank would cut by half a point or a more modest quarter point as some had expected.

March silver also rose 10 cents to $16.90 an ounce on the Nymex, while March copper fell 2.95 cents to $3.2695 a pound.

more...

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080130/commodities_review.html?.v=4

[Bushwick Bill]

92. Wow.

[AnneD]

106. Damn....

I didn't get to the trader in time. Knew that would happen:grr: All my extra money (piddly bonus, IRS rebate check)are going into gold til things settle-I am literally spinning straw (flax)into gold:rofl:

[citizen snips]

89. Sector Glance: Telecom

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of some of the biggest telecommunications companies were trading slightly lower Wednesday -- though some erased bigger losses from earlier in the day -- after the Federal Reserve cut a key interest rate for the second time this month to give the lagging U.S. economy a boost.

As expected, the Federal Reserve cut federal funds rate by a one half of a percentage point to 3 percent. The Fed had also cut rates last Tuesday, by three-quarters of a percentage point, following a global sell-off of stocks a day earlier amid concerns over a possible recession in the U.S.

Shares of Sprint Nextel Corp. were down as much as 6 percent earlier Wednesday, but after the rate cut the stock regained much of those losses.

Still, shares of the top three U.S. telecom carriers -- AT&T, Verizon and Sprint -- have declined overall since the start of the year, in part hurt by investor worries over the economic slowdown.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080130/telecom_sector_glance.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

90. Sector Glance: Mortgage Insurers

NEW YORK (AP) -- Mortgage insurance stocks jumped Wednesday after the Federal Reserve cut its target for a key benchmark interest rate, potentially offering a salve to mortgage borrowers having trouble paying their bills.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday afternoon announced it cut its target for the federal funds rate to 3 percent from 3.5 percent. Last week, the Fed unexpectedly cut the rate 0.75 percentage points from 4.25 percent.

A lower federal funds rate -- the rate banks charge one another for short-term loans -- makes business easier for banks, which in turn can make them more willing to lend.

Mortgage insurers write insurance policies promising to repay mortgage lenders when borrowers miss payments on their loans. Stocks in the sector have plummeted in the past year as borrowers default on their debt more frequently.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080130/sector_glance_mortgage_insurers.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

91. Sector Glance: Oil Stocks Up on Rate Cut

NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil stocks jumped Wednesday, reversing earlier declines, after the Federal Reserve cut a key interest rate by half a percentage point.

The central bank lowered the benchmark federal funds to 3 percent, its second cut in just over a week, and signaled it may not yet be finished driving interest rates lower.

Oil prices reversed course following the cut, erasing slim losses earlier in the day. Crude had been trading lower ahead of the Fed's move after the government reported crude oil and gasoline inventories rose more than expected last week.

Shortly after the cut, light, sweet crude for March delivery rose 26 cents to $91.90.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080130/big_oil_sector_glance.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

93. Seeing US Slowdown, Mexico Cuts Growth

MEXICO CITY (AP) -- Mexico indicated Wednesday it expects the downturn in the U.S. will mean much slower growth this year for its own economy, which depends on its northern neighbor for the bulk of its trade and investment.

The Treasury Department said it was lowering its forecast for Mexico's 2008 economic growth to 2.8 percent from 3.7 percent -- a 24 percent drop.

"It is expected that the prevalent international economic scenario in 2008 will be less favorable for Mexico than what was anticipated," the department said in a report posted on its Web site.

Mexico's gross domestic product is expected to have grown about 3.2 percent last year, the department said.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080130/mexico_economy.html?.v=3

[Robbien]

96. The rate cut party didn't last long

CNBC was having orgasms over the rate cut with the Dow heading up 200 to the green.

Real life intervened where a rating agency cut a lessor known monoline's credit rating. Dow rollercoasting down again.

[Roland99]

97. Closing numbers: Whoops-a-daisy

Dow 12,442.83 -37.47
Nasdaq 2,349.00 -9.06
S&P 500 1,355.81 -6.49
10 YR 3.73% 0.08
Oil $91.75 $0.11
Gold $926.30 $-4.50

[Roland99]

98. Fitch cuts FGIC (Bond Insurer) rating to AA from AAA

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/fitch-cuts-fgic-rating-aa/story.aspx?guid=%7B8BA47A22%2D30A8%2D4CB1%2D9FC6%2D17CA52CC95BC%7D&dist=hplatest

Fitch Ratings said on Wednesday that it cut the AAA ratings of Financial Guaranty Insurance Company (FGIC) to AA because the bond insurer doesn't have enough capital to keep its top rating. Fitch warned it may cut FGIC's ratings further in future. "The existing capital deficiency, which Fitch now believes totals approximately $1.3 billion, resulted from rapid credit deterioration in FGIC's insured portfolio," the rating agency said in a statement. Fitch is most concerned about transactions backed by structured finance collateralized debt obligations backed by subprime residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and direct exposure to securities backed by prime second-lien home loans.

[Hugin]

99. "It's not enough. should have been 75bps"

It -had- to be said. :rofl:

Say, where's TalkingDog with the trucks?

[TalkingDog]

104. Sorry, been being a anti-feminist feminist for the past coupla hours

I gotcha truck right here!!! *makes groin grabbing motions*

[AnneD]

107. Eat that...

Barbie... :rofl:
Kewl wheels. At certain ages you can...never have too much glitter or your trucks too big.

[Hugin]

109. Nice... Does it come as a hybrid?

:D

Well, after you spotted the last :tinfoilhat: foolishness with the futures after a rate-cut flop I was hoping
you had some insight on tomorrow's *cough* PPT *cough* shenanigans.

[TalkingDog]

113. Hybrid: It runs on hot air and vitriol. I fuel it with Politicians and fumes from GD:P

As for PPT, I have been so busy inside my head today digging out old terminology from feminist discourse I've got a brain cramp. (mentoring a 16 y.o. with a 180 I.Q. gives me a whole new respect for high school teachers)

But maybe tonight as I'm meditating on the ruckus thrown up by the "musicians" the Spousal Unit has conscripted me to sing for I'll have some sort of proto-punk epiphany.

Something like:

"When you own a big chunk of the bloody 3rd world, the babies just come with the scenery."


Besides, I can't take credit for something I just happened to read and subsequently obsess on.


My Favorite Master Artist: Karen Parker GhostWoman Studios

[Roland99]

112. *** Wanna know how spot-on we are in this here thread? ***

Ok, so it's minor league anecdotal evidence but, hey, validation nonetheless!!


I was on the phone w/a buddy of mine, happens to be a fellow DUer, and we were discussing the state of economic affairs: the rate cut, the spike, the settling down, the bond insurer (FGIC) downgrade and the subsequent negative close for the Dow. We also discussed how houses were overvalued by overzealous mortgage brokers and no one was paying attention as long as the money was rolling in. Talked about how some in the media (CNBC on-air Director and Dave Ramsey) are, well, blaming the media for the housing crash and economic slide (self-fulfilling prophecy, I guess). Talked about ARMs and people being stuck after the house's value dropped so they couldn't refinance out of the adjusting ARM. All kinds of that type of stuff.

Anyway...

He called me back about 20 min. later and said, "Guess who was in line behind me while we were talking? The loan manager at a local bank. And he said he overheard the conversation and that we were 'spot on' about everything. He said it's only going to get worse. He also said he has a friend that's a stockbroker for a big brokerage house and he said if you own one stock, that's one stock too many."


Yikes!


But, gee, imagine that. A computer programmer whose only economic training was a couple of economics classes in college, 22 years ago, and a blue-collar worker for an American manufacturer. Yet we were 'spot on'.

I have to give props to everyone in this thread from whom I've learned so much; who've clued me in to Shadowstats, Mogambo, etc. and corrected me from time to time or, heck, validated my gut instincts.


So, here's to you, Bearers of Bulls and Bears Business Bulletins!

:toast:

[Hugin]

114. ...

:thumbsup:

:toast:

[DemReadingDU]

115. Cheers to the SMW thread!

Appreciate everyone who posts and shares financial info. I've learned a lot here.

:toast: