US reports ‘phenomenal’ drop in Iraq violence

[Psephos]

Source: Financial Times (UK)

By Stephen Fidler in London and Demetri Sevastopulo in Washington
November 20 2007 22:15

Violence in Iraq has fallen at a rate that has surprised military commanders and even one of the architects of the “surge” that boosted US troop numbers in the country this year, according to figures gathered by the US.

The figures show the numbers of suicide attacks, roadside bombings, mortar and other attacks on US forces and on the Iraqi population have more than halved since 30,000 extra troops in June. The military attributes the decline to the surge, the spread of local ceasefire deals across Iraq, a ceasefire by radical Shia militias and an improvement in the Iraqi security forces.

Jack Keane, the former army general who helped persuade George W. Bush, US president, to increase troop numbers in Iraq, said the decrease in violence was “phenomenal” and had occurred far faster than he had expected. “When you understand you are dealing with the complexity of a counter-insurgency operation which can take years to resolve, to have this dramatic a success in a short period of time, it’s unprecedented,” he said.

<snip>

The US military says the number of civilian deaths has also fallen 60 per cent since the surge took effect, with a drop of 75 per cent in Baghdad. According to icasualties.org, the average monthly US death toll dropped from 96 for the first half of 2007 to 66 in the past four months. The average monthly death toll for Iraqi civilians and security forces has dropped from 2,157 to 1,223 in the same period.

<snip>

Read more: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ca653412-97b4-11dc-9e08-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1

[Lautremont]

1. Please say "Mission Accomplished"... please say "Mission Accomplished"... please say

well, you get the idea.

[saigon68]

20. We are back to the "Body Counts" of 1968

Figures lie and Liars Figure

[Dems Will Win]

21. This dip is only because al Sadr told his troops to lay low until February

Expect it to go right back to where it was then. Also we have pulled our troops off most streets and back into forts. Plus the ethnic cleansing separated the neighborhoods so now there are few mixed streets.

Al Sadr was killing 2/3 of the troops being lost.

[Barrett808]

24. And because we're employing "former" Baathists in the West

See, for example, today's post by Juan Cole:

Al-Hayat writing in Arabic profiles Sa'd Uraibi al-Ubaidi, known as "Abu Abd", the 'tribal awakening' leader who, it claims, now controls most of the Sunni Arab neighborhoods of Baghdad. Al-Ubaidi, 35, had served as an officer in the Baath Army. He joined the guerrilla movement against the Americans, being active in the "Islamic Army." He then joined a 'tribal council' and allied with the Americans against the Salafi radicals, some of whom style themselves 'al-Qaeda.' He told al-Hayat that he had had no choice but to ally with the Americans once "al-Qaeda" turned into Iraq's 'biggest enemy.' He said he and his companions had once fought the Americans "honorably," but that they now conclude 3-month-long security agreements with them, which can be renewed.

Six months ago, Abu Abd formed and began heading the Awakening Council of the Knights of Mesopotamia, most of the 600 members of which had earlier belonged to the 'Islamic Army.' It is based in the Baghdad districts of al-Amiriya, al-Khadra, al-Jami'a, and al-Adhamiya. He said that the US needs "resistance units" to control hot districts so as to establish security in them, something that Iraqis, he said, need as well. Al-Hayat maintains that his 600 fighters receive a monthly salary of $360 from the US, and that recently 300 of them were regularized as members of the al-Amiriya district police force after they passed medical exams. He maintains that there should be further such integration of his men with government institutions. Abu Abd says that in addition to salaries, the US provides logistical support and advanced weapons, as well as targeted help in case they get into a major firefight with the Salafi Jihadis. Abu Abd says that 70 Shiite families have now been enabled to return to mainly Sunni Arab al-Amiriya, because of the improved security his men provide.

(more)

http://www.juancole.com/2007/11/abu-abd-and-baghdad-security-and-now.html

To be clear, this means that the relative calm in Anbar is the result of "negotiating with terrorists," not the "surge."

[tularetom]

2. If I were of a conspiratrorial frame of mind

I might suspect that this is the first step in a series of reports proclaiming the resounding success of the surge, declaring victory and drastically reducing troop levels in Iraq, conveniently just in time for the 08 repub presidential candidate to take credit for it.

But I don't think like that.

[OnyxCollie]

7. I concur.

I can't remember where I heard something similar, maybe Sam Seder or Rachel Maddow. The belief was that Chimpy would bring home a large number of troops, undercutting the Dems strategy of doing nothing to stop the war in hopes of using against repubs.

Looks like it might play out that way.

[brooklynite]

3. A simple question to asked Conservative politicians...

We accept that that the increased military presence has provided a reduction in violence (at the cost of American lives). However, the troops supporting the surge are now scheduled for eventual withdrawal. GIven that the Iraqi Government has squandered this opportunity to achieve political reconciliation, are you prepared to publicly support sending these troops back to Iraq if the security situation worsens as troops leave?

[Name removed]

4. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[LynnTheDem]

5. So ignore the FACT that more US troops are dead in Iraq this year...

than in any of the past 4 years of george w bush's invasion of Iraq.

[KansDem]

32. Plus, after four years of US training Iraqi police...

Iraqi police are "too scared" to investigate the dozens of murders of Iraqi women, killed by religious zealots in recent months because they weren't wearing their scarfs or were wearing makeup.

That's why we're supposedly in Iraq: to train Iraqi security and police. But if they're too intimated to investigate these kinds of crimes, what have we been doing for those four years?

Yeah, right, the "surge" is working...:eyes:

[daleo]

6. This is hugh!!111!

It's only half the murderous hell it was two months ago!

[soothsayer]

8. Seriesly

[spag68]

9. You even here still don't get it

This is actually the Joe Biden plan. The sects in Iraq have been segregated and there are no more neighbors to kill. Sunnis have theirs, Shiite have theirs and the Kurds have had their's for awhile. It has nothing or little to do with the "surge". The foreign fighters never comprised more then 5% of the violence anyway. Don't be fooled again.

[EFerrari]

23. You're right. I listened to a (credible) reporter talk about this

in a great deal of detail about two weeks ago on Washington Journal. People displaced from their hoods and basically forced to move into sectarian enclaves, barriers everywhere. We've managed to push civilization in Iraq backward about a hundred years. It's a purge, not a surge. That and handing out cash to buy stand downs which will work as well as paying blackmailers.

[pscot]

10. That's wonderful news

So we can bring the troops home now, right?

[jwirr]

11. Who was it who said about Vietnam, "Just declare a victory and get out"?

[boricua79]

12. ok, great.

so I'm expecting the first withdrawing force this month...right?

[Hulk]

13. And what has it accomplished?.....nada!

Great, fewer Iraqis shot in the face. We aren't counting the ones shot in the back of the head. Wonder if we are counting the ones found in the mass graves this week?

And what has our "surge" alias build up accomplished? Has the Iraqi government gotten any closer to resolving their issues so we can get out. NOT ONE F*CKING INCH CLOSER. This is all one big, sad, disgusting joke.

[BenDavid]

14. If bushit and the republicans believe this will give them any

leeway into the elections of 08 they are sadly mistaken. The question still remains were the lives of over 4000 of our men and women and the 30,000 injured worth the effort in Iraq and they still do not have a government in place.....

The one area I fault the dems on is not getting out to the public exactly why it was how a bill could pass the House but could not pass the Senate. Hell, I doubt serious that 30% of americans understand a cloture vote. Nost americans believe you bring a bill to the floor and you vote and if you get a majority then it passes....but nope not in the senate....The dems need to do a hell of a lot better in getting to the mic and informing the public why....

Ben David

[4nic8em]

15. Oh yeah...

just like in Afghanistan...by the way, where the fuck is Bin Laden?

[Pastiche423]

18. He is six feet under

in Afghanistan.

[Paulie]

16. what are these numbers corrected to Per Capita?

If there is less population, the numbers may be lower but the percentages could be the same or higher.

Probably using the British withdrawl from Basra to skew the numbers even more.

[Cobalt-60]

17. These numbers are cooked

I like my data tartare.
I'll draw my own conclusions.
Remember: they have lied so consistently and so frequently that no member of Team Shrub can be believed about anything.

[Selatius]

19. Wait until the Mahdi Army and various other Shia/Sunni militias end their unilateral ceasefires.

Then the spike will go upward once again.

[Dems Will Win]

22. Only 80 days left and then watch out

[undeterred]

25. Does that mean we've killed or maimed every living being?

I'm just askin'. :shrug:

[SpikeTss]

26. ROUNDUP: At least 45 killed in violence around Iraq today

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3074909

What a great country Iraq is now after this brutal war of aggression!

[HuffleClaw]

27. they just refuse to learn from the past i see

this is what is known as the enemy drawing down and preparing for a major offensive.

[ohio2007]

28. So when is the Tet offensive going to happen ?

I think the press has the right and freedom to report it.

Iraqi deaths;
month military-civilian
Jun-07 197 1148
Jul-07 232 1458
Aug-07 76 1598
Sep-07 96 752
Oct-07 114 565
Nov-07 53 324
Dec-07


http://www.icasualties.org/oif/IraqiDeaths.aspx

deaths are down drastically but I think your Tet offensive theory has as much proof as the US invasion of Iran scheduled for June,2005,2006,2007...

[midnight armadillo]

29. The Mahdi Army was TOLD TO STAND DOWN

From August 29, 2007:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,294990,00.html

BAGHDAD — Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has ordered a six-month suspension of activities by his Mahdi Army militia in order to reorganize the force, and it will no longer attack U.S. and coalition troops, aides said Wednesday.

Not only that, but the ethnic cleansing in Baghdad has been going on for some time, meaning there are fewer attacks on Sunni or Shiites living in the wrong neighborhoods.

Or...30,000 extra troops in a city of 4.5 million people made a huge impact. Take your pick.

[ohio2007]

30. So mookie wanted to weed out the less loyal bad eggs

currently he accuses the US of playing militia favorites that don't favor the mookie militia.

[slackmaster]

31. Two phenomena have just landed on my plate

[Bonobo]

33. Try to spin THAT for another year.