STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday November 21

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday November 21, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 427 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2500 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2222 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2183
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 20, 2007

Dow... 13,010.14 +51.70 (+0.40%)
Nasdaq... 2,596.81 +3.43 (+0.13%)
S&P 500... 1,439.70 +6.43 (+0.45%)
Gold future... 791.40 +13.40 (+1.69%)
30-Year Bond 4.48% +0.01 (+0.13%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.05% -0.03 (-0.61%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [email protected]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[Ghost Dog]

1. Asian stocks tumble as oil soars

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071121/ts_afp/stocksworld_071121074418;_ylt=AsOSNqBc2B4WhKCyp0XvUNWmOrgF

HONG KONG (AFP) - Asian stocks tumbled across the board on Wednesday in the face of record oil prices, as crude neared 100 dollars a barrel driven by the continued weakness of the US currency.

Trading screens went red throughout the region as Hong Kong slid 4.2 percent by mid-afternoon, Tokyo closed down 2.46 percent at a 16-month low and Seoul dropped to a three-month low, off 3.5 percent.

"There are still too many uncertainties in the US and in the local market," said Howard Gorges, vice chairman at South China Securities. "Most investors will likely be cautious because of the confusing picture out there."

Taipei dropped 2.27 percent, Mumbai shed 2.07 percent, Singapore lost 1.4 percent and Jakarta fell 1.5 percent.

Smaller declines marked Sydney and Shanghai as relative bright spots, down 0.6 percent and 0.26 percent respectively.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

2. European shares fall over 2 pct to 3-month low

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINL2100064920071121?rpc=611

LONDON, Nov 21 (Reuters) - European equities fell over 2 percent on Wednesday to their lowest in three months on the prospect of record-high oil prices hitting company earnings, while banks again took a beating.

HSBC (HSBA.L: Quote, Profile, Research), UBS (UBSN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research) and Barclays (BARC.L: Quote, Profile, Research) figured among the main losers in a sector littered with losses linked to a crisis in the credit markets.

BP (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research) and Total (TOTF.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) tracked a rise in U.S. crude prices to above $99 a barrel.

At 1015 GMT, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index (.FTEU3: Quote, Profile, Research) was down 2.3 percent at 1,445.9, taking the benchmark's losses to over 2 percent so far this year, compared with a 15 percent increase by the same time last year. The index is at its lowest level since August, when credit worries battered markets.

The dollar hit a new record low against the euro and a basket of major currencies, and the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield <US10YT=RR> fell below 4 percent for the first time since 2005.

"We have reached unbearable levels for oil and currencies," said Romain Boscher, a fund manager at Groupama Asset Management. "We have to accept negative surprises for earnings for this quarter and next year," he added.

The market was overwhelmingly negative, with 292 shares falling, just 19 up, and 2 unchanged. The FTSEurofirst 300 index is on track for its most volatile month since February.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

65. Europe shares fall, banks pummelled by credit woes

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINL2187146020071121?rpc=44

LONDON, Nov 21 (Reuters) - European shares fell sharply on Wednesday as fresh concern about the fallout of a credit crunch hit banks, while the record high euro dragged down shares of major exporters.

The FTSEurofirst 300 index (.FTEU3: Quote, Profile, Research) of top European shares ended at an unofficial close of 1,445.18 points, showing a 2.35 percent fall on the day.

Banks were the biggest declining sector, driven by a sharp fall in Societe Generale (SOGN.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) which shed about 7 percent in its largest one-day fall in five years after a broker downgrade.

The FTSEurofirst has fallen 2.6 percent so far this year, compared with a 15-percent gain this time in 2006 as persistent concern over banks' exposure to products linked to the U.S. mortgage market and sky-high lending rates. "There are concerns about many of the banks ... and what exposure they've got to some of these things that many people still don't fully understand, what the size of that exposure is and what the size of the write-offs could be," said Andrea Williams, head of European equities at Royal London Asset Management.

In other European markets, London's FTSE 100 index (.FTSE: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 2.5 percent, while Frankfurt's DAX (.GDAXI: Quote, Profile, Research) dropped 1.5 percent and Paris' CAC 40 (.FCHI: Quote, Profile, Research) lost 2.3 percent.

/.

[Ghost Dog]

7. Exports fuel Japan’s growth

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/64c283f6-97f2-11dc-8ca7-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1

Japan’s exports hit a record high in October, boosted by European and Asian demand, but a fall in sales to the US underscored concern that a downturn in the world’s biggest economy could hurt Japan’s growth.

China is set to overtake the US as Japan’s biggest export destination this year for the first time in modern history, although many of the goods shipped there and to the rest of Asia are assembled into products that are then exported to the US.

...

Overall exports increased 13.9 per cent from a year earlier to a record Y7,515.5bn ($68.5bn) despite a stronger yen, above a market median forecast for a 12.4 per cent rise, data from the Ministry of Finance showed on Wednesday.

Imports rose 8.6 per cent, boosted by crude oil import costs leaving Japan with a trade surplus of Y1,018.6bn ($9.27bn), up 66.1 per cent from a year earlier.

Exports to the US fell 1.5 per cent from a year earlier, hurt by declines in shipments of cars and construction machinery, as the world’s largest economy digests problems in the subprime mortgage sector and resulting market turbulence. That followed a 9.3 per cent annual drop in September, the biggest decline since November 2003. It is the first time exports to the US have fallen for two months in a row since April-May 2004.

But shipments to China, which has already replaced the US as Japan’s biggest trading partner, climbed 19.2 per cent from a year earlier and those to Asia rose 12.9 per cent.

Shipments to the EU jumped 23.7 per cent, supporting overall export growth.

“Exports to the US fell, but not to such an extent that showed subprime problems were taking a severe toll on Japanese exports,” said Takeshi Minami at Norinchukin Research Institute. “But it’s worrying that a slowdown in exports of cars and construction machinery is becoming noticeable.”

Resilient exports helped push up Japan’s economic growth to a firm 0.6 per cent in the July-September quarter from the preceding three months, or an annualised 2.6 per cent.

/..

[ozymandius]

3. Market WrapUp: Making Stagflation Your Friend

BY FRANK BARBERA, CMT

The US Stock Market most likely logged an important short term low in today’s session, a bad news bottom if there ever was one with the likes of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac experiencing a Richter scale 10.00 type quake. Clearly, all of the evidence that has continued to pour from the Financial Sector suggests that the hemorrhaging of Structured Finance is only in the first inning. For most Americans, the upcoming economic contraction will pose enormous risks as the odds are high that over the course of time, a collapse in confidence and widespread defaults within the credit markets will bring the American financial system to a full-blown crisis. We hate to sound negative, but the numbers being bandied about by those few analysts that probably have a grip are in the trillions, implying that this downturn will probably rival or exceed that scene during the Great Depression. It is a sad day indeed, and no doubt when the full extent of this developing economic-financial crisis is revealed, there will be much weeping and gnashing of teeth, and a draconian clamp down on derivatives and non-traditional lending practices -- all after the fact.

Yet, what to do in the meantime? As I see it, there are two goals that need to be achieved during this upcoming period: (1) preserve accumulated wealth, and (2) if possible, enhance wealth and purchasing power. Understanding precisely what we are up against is key to achieving both goals. In my view, and without getting into an expose with unending supporting evidence, the US is confronting an Inflationary Recession/Depression. In the end, whether the problem becomes a full scale depression, or simply a very bad recession will likely hinge on a combination of ‘goodwill’ from foreigners and government policy. However, in either outcome, a few key elements are sure to follow.

-cut-

In the final analysis, a hyper-inflation, or any inflation for that matter, will come to an end once the government reduces the supply of new money and has successfully inflated away most or all of its accumulated debt. In the US, off-balance sheet items for Uncle Sam are already past $56 Trillion Dollars; that’s a lot of potential inflation ahead. In fact, in the case of Uncle Sam, even the Comptroller General of the United States, David Walker is openly telling anyone who listen, “Houston, we have a problem.” See “60 Minutes” video courtesy YouTube.

-cut-

Thus, one element to be aware of is that with the US teetering within the framework of a serious Housing and now, Banking crisis, the stock market in the year or two ahead could be a massive wipe out. In our view, the one exception could be the natural resource stocks that are closely linked to commodity prices. Our “gut level’ suspicion is that these stocks could continue to fare well in the months ahead, and decouple from the broad market. There is past precedence for this type of outcome, as Gold and Oil Stocks decoupled from the S&P for extended periods of time during the two prior 1970’s Arab Oil Embargos. The one element where Natural Resource stocks will probably not fare well is within the context of an accelerating market crash. In a real crash, everything is usually thrown out the window for some period of time, but quality will usually quickly find its values, and can often bounce back fairly soon.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Ghost Dog]

4. Welcme back, Ozy. Enjoy the news!

Gotta go now. Maybe back briefly later...

[ozymandius]

5. Thank you Ghost Dog.

It seems like I have DSL trouble almost every week now. Maybe the Internet gods are trying to tell me something...

Thanks again to UpInArms for rushing to the fore.

:yourock:

[Ghost Dog]

8. Happens to me, too: ADSL down the phone line.

I just have to keep switching-off, switching-on the router until it finally connects and provides DNS, which some days can take forever...

[UpInArms]

12. Good Morning, Ozy!

and welcome home!! :hi:

You are sorely missed when you are gone :grouphug:

[Ghost Dog]

6. Oil closes in on $100 a barrel

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ca88b4fe-97ec-11dc-9e08-0000779fd2ac.html

Crude oil prices on Wednesday rose to striking distance of $100 a barrel level, boosted by the tumbling US dollar and fears of another drop in inventories, while gold prices rose above $800 an ounce.

Nymex January West Texas Intermediate crude oil hit an all-time record of $99.29 a barrel in Asian trading, extending from its Tuesday surge of $3.39 to a closing price of $98.03 a barrel – the highest since the contract started to trade in 1983.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil was later trading $1.04 higher at $99.07 a barrel. Brent crude oil jumped $1.04 to $96.53 a barrel.

The dollar fell Tuesday to a record low against the euro of $1.4853 and kept close to that level on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve cut its forecast of the potential growth of the US economy to 2.5 per cent.

The price surge was helped by news that Shell has halted 155,000 barrels a day of production at one oil sands unit in Scotford, Canada, and comments that China will increase the supply of fuel to ease shortages.

The oil market is waiting to see whether Opec, the cartel which controls 40 per cent of the world’s oil production, will agree to raise output at its next ministerial meeting in Abu Dhabi on December 5. Opec did not discuss its production policy at its head of states summit in Riyadh last week.

Spot gold prices surged to $804.20 an ounce on the combination of a weakening dollar and fears of an oil-led inflation spike.

/...

[radfringe]

11. 325% increase - heckava job smirkboy

http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm
graph only goes up to august 2007


when bush planted himself in the oval orafice - a barrel of oil averaged $30

today it's $98-$99 per barrel

that's over a 325% increase

[burf]

17. Remember when gas

hit two dollars a gallon when Clinton was still president? Oxy boy Rush Limbaugh went bonkers and told us that we needed some guys that understood the oil business in the oval office. Looks like old Rush was as full of shit then as he is now.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone and welcome back Ozy!

[ginnyinWI]

20. ah but you must understand:

It's NEVER their fault. It's okay if you are a republican. :sarcasm:

[Roland99]

41. I think it was closer to $26/bbl. 380%?

[Warpy]

72. That chart discounts the effect Carter had

when he created the strategic oil reserve, a supply of oil that could be tapped into when OPEC got stuffy and created shortages to raise prices. That's really what got those oil prices down after Nixon/Ford had done absolutely nothing but allow embargo and then inflation, both of which Carter ultimately got blamed for.

The GOP did nothing. Carter got the prices down, but too late to save his administration.

[UpInArms]

16. Oil holds firm after surge above $99

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071121/bs_nm/markets_oil_dc

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil held above $98 a barrel on Wednesday, after closing in on the $100 milestone as the dollar hit new lows and cold weather in the United States, the world's biggest fuel consumer, stirred anxiety over winter supplies.

U.S. light crude surged to a record $99.29 early in the session, but then edged down from this peak to stand at $98.39, up 36 cents at 8:04 a.m. EST.

Prices blasted past the previous $98.62 record, extending a rally that has lifted oil by 45 percent since mid-August as speculative investment rises, supplies tighten and the dollar weakens.

"It's firing on its own momentum -- do or die to reach $100," said Jonathan Barratt, of Australia's Commodity Broking Services.

London Brent crude was up 28 cents at $95.77.

Oil's strength is in part a result of the weakness of the dollar, which has spurred buying of relatively cheap dollar-denominated commodities.

The dollar sank to a new record low against the euro and versus a basket of currencies on Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut its growth outlook for next year, boosting chances of another interest rate cut in December.

...more...

[ozymandius]

71. Oil Hesitates on Drive to $100 a Barrel

NEW YORK (AP) -- Energy futures balked on a drive to $100 a barrel Wednesday after the government reported that supplies at a key oil terminal in the Midwest rose for the first time in weeks.

Crude inventories overall fell unexpectedly in a mixed report that analysts said didn't do much to change a prevailing view that oil supplies are tight amid rising demand. Inventories of distillates including heating oil dropped more than expected and crude imports fell, too.

-cut-

Light, sweet crude for January delivery fell 70 cents to $97.33 a barrel in midday trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange but alternated frequently between gains and losses. Before the inventory report, they had risen as high as $99.29 a barrel in electronic trading to break the previous intraday record of $98.62 set earlier this month.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071121/oil_prices.html

[4dsc]

73. "call" options at $150??

Listening to Powerlunch today and they claimed people are buying call options for June/July at $150.. They were rather surspised at that number but I wasn't!!

[Ghost Dog]

9. Wall Street seen falling as oil nears $100

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINL2171015020071121?rpc=44
Wed Nov 21, 2007 6:13am EST

FRANKFURT, Nov 21 (Reuters) - U.S. index futures pointed to a weak start on Wall Street on Wednesday, set to erase gains from the previous session as economic growth concerns got the upper hand again and the oil price neared the $100 mark.

At 1044 GMT, the Dow Jones future (DJc1: Quote, Profile, Research) was 0.9 percent lower, the S&P 500 future (SPc1: Quote, Profile, Research) was down 1.1 percent and the Nasdaq future (NDc1: Quote, Profile, Research) dropped 1.1 percent.

The indicative Dow Jones Index (.DJII: Quote, Profile, Research), which tracks how the Dow stocks are traded in Frankfurt, was down 0.7 percent.

"The markets are facing a severe headwind again today," said Tom Hougaard, chief market strategist at City Index Markets. "There is still a sense that a low is in the making, but with the Asian indices firmly in red overnight, it might not be today," he added.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

10. FOREX-Dlr hits record low as risk-shy investors buy yen

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINL2129854920071121?rpc=44
Wed Nov 21, 2007 7:11am EST

LONDON, Nov 21 (Reuters) - The dollar hit a record low against the euro and a basket of major currencies on Wednesday and the yen rose sharply as concerns on the health of the U.S. economy and global credit markets saw investors flee risky carry trades.

The yen rose to its highest since June 2005 against the dollar as a tumble in European and Asian shares prompted investors to move into safe-haven, lower yielding assets.

The high yielding Australian dollar fell by more than 2 percent and sterling -- another key destination for carry trades -- touched a 4-1/2 year low against the euro as investors headed for safe-haven assets.

"The driving theme is risk aversion with equities in Asia and Europe down. The dollar is suffering from a fear of a U.S. slowdown which will have an impact on monetary policy," said Niels From, currency strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort in Frankfurt.

He added that sharp moves were likely to continue for the rest of the week.

"It's Thanksgiving (on Thursday) and trading volumes will be lower and the fact that there is less liquidity means there will be more volatility ... and this could prove a dangerous cocktail for the rest of the week."

By 1134 GMT, the dollar was down 1.3 percent at 108.52 yen, just above a 108.27 low since June 2005 <JPY=>. The euro had given up some of its gains to trade down 0.2 percent on the day at $1.4788 <EUR=>, after striking a record high of $1.4856, according to Reuters data.

Besides market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further, the dollar has been under pressure from growing speculation that Middle East oil exporters, including Saudi Arabia, may ditch or revalue their dollar pegs.

...

The dollar also hit an all-time low against the Swiss franc at 1.1025 francs while it sank to a record low against a basket of six major currencies at 74.951 (.DXY: Quote, Profile, Research).

/...

ed: Watch on Swiss Franc (CHF), Pound Sterling (GBP)

[Buttercup McToots]

13. Court ruling blocks institutions from profiting from foreclosures

Hundreds of banks threatened by new subprime crisis
Court ruling blocks institutions from profiting from foreclosures

By Jerome R. Corsi
© 2007 WorldNetDaily.com


Deutsche Bank headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany

The reserves of hundreds of banks are at risk, including some major banks, after a little-noticed federal court decision signaled the crisis in securitized home mortgages could spell much more trouble for financial institutions than previously realized, even on Wall Street.

Justice Christopher A. Boyko of the Eastern Ohio U.S. District Court dismissed 14 Deutsche Bank-filed home foreclosures Oct. 31, based on a ruling that the German financier lacked standing for not owning the mortgage loans at the time the lawsuits were filed.

Bob Chapman, author of the International Forecaster website, emphasized the problem in his Nov. 21 newsletter.

"This court ruling in Ohio means that the securitized trusts own nothing," Chapman wrote. "The investors in these securities might have assumed – wrongly, it turns out – that they actually owned some real estate in these deals. The problem is, they own nothing."

Chapman called the ruling "monumental."

"The holders of those slice-and-dice derivatives could have zero legal redress or collateral in foreclosures," he said. "This reduces their values substantially."

Deutsche Bank held the home loans through a packaged bundle of loans bought in what is known as a Mortgage Backed Security, or MBS, the home-owner version of the more general Collateralized Debt Obligation, or CDO, packaged by Wall Street.

Simply put, Boyko's decision raises the prospect that Mortgage Backed Securities may be "mortgage backed" in name only.

An MBS typically involves only a residential mortgage, whereas CDOs involve a variety of debt instruments, including credit card debt, which is purchased from the original issuer and sold to an institutional investor, typically a bank.

The problem is that banks hold MBSs in their asset portfolios, contributing to the reserves banks are required to hold in order to operate.

"The U.S. financial media and Wall Street pundits are asleep or remiss on the true extent of the MBS crisis," Chapman asserted.

He concludes that many institutional holders of the MBS securities try to argue that they had assignment of the mortgage titles, or equitable assignment, that predates the filing of the foreclosure.

But the court in Ohio disagreed: "If a securitized trust cannot take an equitable assignment of a mortgage loan, the banks holding these instruments may be out of luck."

Over the past few years, Wall Street has bundled billions of dollars of home loans into various MBS securities and derivatives products.

The full dollar amount of MBS obligations owned by financial institutions is not yet fully determined, not even by top experts on Wall Street.

Conceivably, MBS obligations, in trouble because of the bursting of the real estate bubble, could number in the trillions of dollars. The stock market already has realized this.

But the Ohio U.S. District Court decision adds another level of complication to the crisis.

If the holders of the MBS securities do not hold any claim or title on the underlying mortgages, then the banks might not have a claim even on the home foreclosure proceeds.

In other words, bank assets and reserve calculations now face the risk of a double loss.

The first loss is the devalued value of the MBS because the underlying mortgages are in foreclosure.

The second loss is that the financial institutions, as owners of the MBSs, may not receive any proceeds from the foreclosures if only the mortgage originator owns the title to the home, not the financial institution owning the MBS.

[Demeter]

58. Massive Unregulated Fraud!

Of course, if it were regulated, it would be all right....

[UpInArms]

14. dollar watch

Last trade 75.196 Change +0.076 (+0.10%)

Settle Time 15:01 Open 75.126

Previous Close 75.120 High 75.313

Low 74.953 2007-11-21 08:32:51, 30 min delay

Expect More Dollar Weakness

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Expect_More_Dollar_Weakness1195599506326.html

The US dollar has fallen to new record lows against the Euro and Swiss Franc, leading many traders to wonder how much longer this weakness can continue. Unfortunately, we do not think an end will come anytime soon because the dollar’s selloff is causing a stir in countries around the world who peg their currencies to the US dollar. China and Gulf Nations are complaining that their investments into US assets are falling in value and inflation is rising, which suggests that if the dollar does not stop weakening, and their losses reach a point that becomes intolerable, they may be forced to diversify their reserves and drop their dollar pegs. At best, they will threaten to do so which is the main driver behind today’s dollar weakness. Yet the US government has not and probably will not do anything to stop the dollar from weakening. According to the latest FOMC minutes and Fed forecasts, the risks to growth are skewed to the downside. With oil prices hitting a new record high and US car loan defaults on the rise, this holiday shopping season could be a particularly difficult one. US retailers need a weak dollar to draw in tourism and foreign spending while larger corporations need a weak dollar to increase exports. Even though the October 31st FOMC minutes were hawkish because the decision to cut rates was a close call, the Fed reduced their growth and inflation forecasts for 2008 and increased their unemployment forecasts. Collectively these numbers are obviously bad for the US dollar and confirm that the Federal Reserve could very well be lowering interest rates again next month. Although there has been talk of an emergency rate cut by the Fed, this chance was slim from the very beginning. Housing market numbers released this morning were mixed. Starts increased by the biggest amount in 8 months but building permits fell to the lowest level in 14 years. This indicates that the housing market has not bottomed but the deterioration is clearly slowing. Jobless claims and leading indicators are the only meaningful US data due for release tomorrow.

...more...

Yen Breaks 109 as Risk Liquidation Continues

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio2/Yen_Breaks_109_as_Risk_1195638989129.html

More worries about the deepening effects of the credit crunch pushed global equity indices lower tonight taking USDJPY below the 109.00 figure for the first time since June of 2005 as carry trades were liquidated across the board. The downgrade of Credit Swiss and BNP by Goldman Sachs pushed the Nikkei lower by 2.5% and triggered a lower opening in European bourses as well, resulting in a swift sell off in the currency market especially amongst the high yielders such as the Aussie which plunged nearly 200 points from the days high.

The yen continues to benefit the most from the unwind of the carry and is also strengthening on the assumption that US rates are headed lower. Yesterday’s FOMC minutes suggested that the committee members saw little upside inflationary risk opening the way for the Fed to lower rates another 25bp in December. As interest rate differentials compress further in USDJPY, the yen will becomes less and less vulnerable to carry trade flows. Traders are already eyeing the 100 level as a potential intermediate term target and Japanese officials are clearly becoming worried about the prospect of rapidly appreciating currency. The Japanese economy is far from healthy and any sudden increase in the value of the yen could create significant deceleration in export growth further hurting the country’s recovery. Japan’s Trade and Industry Minister Akira Amari noted that while 110 was the appropriate level for USDJPY but a drop to 100 would be too severe.

Meanwhile the release of BoE minutes revealed that the MPC voted 7-2 to keep rates steady with David Blanchflower and John Gieve voting in favor of a 25bp cut. The vote count was expected but nevertheless triggered selling in the GBPUSD with the pair dipping below the 2.0600 figure as traders worried that the committee may be on the verge of initiating a 25bp cut as early as this December. EURGBP which we noted yesterday was likely to strengthen further rose to within a few points of the 7200 level as interest rate expectations for UK and EZ continued to diverge. If US equity markets follow the global lead expect more pound and euro selling as the day wears on.

...more...

[sam sarrha]

15. i heard futures speculation represents about 40 cents on the dollar.. and i bet they dont pay any

taxes on it either.

i heard that the clinton era prosperity was in large part a tax on this behavior.. it kept prices low and revenues higher

need to see hoe much tithing goes to the ReThug party from those folks

[UpInArms]

18. Fed Expects Slowdown to Deepen

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/21/business/21fed.html?ex=1353301200&en=54925aabe591356f&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

WASHINGTON, Nov. 20 — The Federal Reserve expects economic growth to slow sharply next year, and policy makers there are worried that even this forecast may prove too optimistic, according to an assessment that the central bank released on Tuesday.

<snip>

The forecast, which was much anticipated, did nothing to end the battle of wills between Fed officials and Wall Street over the need to reduce interest rates for a third time this year when the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee meets next, on Dec. 11.

Investors did not seem to know how to react to the information. Share prices initially dropped after the report was released, possibly in reaction to the reluctance that the policy makers had expressed toward cutting rates last month. But prices bounced back and ended the day modestly higher, possibly in response to the Fed’s reduced alarms about inflation.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 51.70 points, or 0.40 percent, to 13,010.14, after making 100-point swings in both directions. That followed Monday’s drop of more than 200 points. Many Nasdaq or small stocks were flat or lower.

<snip>

But many investors continue to bet heavily on a rate cut in December, and some economists and Wall Street analysts argue that the economy will come much closer to stalling than the Fed now assumes.

...more...

[ozymandius]

19. Is this thing on??

I've had DU connection issues for the past 90 minutes. Sheesh

[UpInArms]

22. hiya Ozy!

hope the connection lasts!

:hi:

[Ghost Dog]

62. BTW UiA,

thanks for PM. I'm waiting to hear if there's any possibility from my contact...

[UpInArms]

75. thanks GD

no hurry - nor worry

:hi:

[DemReadingDU]

25. me too, DU was not loading this morning

:(

[UpInArms]

21. Today's Reports:

Nov 21 8:30 AM
Initial Claims 11/17
Reported 330K
briefing.com predicts 330K
market expects 330K
last week 341K
revised from 339K

Nov 21 10:00 AM
Leading Indicators Oct
report -
briefing.com predicts -0.3%
market expects -0.3%
last report 0.3%
revised -

Nov 21 10:00 AM
Mich Sentiment-Rev. Nov
report -
briefing.com predicts 75.0
market expects 75.0
last report 75.0
revised -

Nov 21 10:30 AM
Crude Inventories 11/16
report -
NA
NA
last report 2814K

[UpInArms]

23. Initial Claims data

02. U.S. continuing jobless claims up 7,000 to 2.57 mln
8:30 AM ET, Nov 21, 2007 - 24 minutes ago

03. U.S. 4-week avg. jobless claims down 750 to 329,750
8:30 AM ET, Nov 21, 2007 - 24 minutes ago

04. U.S. weekly initial jobless claims fall 11,000 to 330,000
8:30 AM ET, Nov 21, 2007 - 24 minutes ago

- seems as though there is a line missing -

last week's claims were revised upward by 2,000 (making that fall a bit less than stated)

[UpInArms]

52. U.S. Oct. leading indicators down 0.5% vs 0.1% rise in Sept.

01. U.S. leading indicators point to slower growth ahead
10:00 AM ET, Nov 21, 2007 - 30 seconds ago

02. U.S. Oct. leading indicators down 0.5% vs 0.1% rise in Sept.
10:00 AM ET, Nov 21, 2007 - 30 seconds ago

[UpInArms]

74. UMich Nov final sentiment index falls to 2-yr low

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2117163420071121?sp=true

NEW YORK, Nov 21 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment fell in November to its lowest in two years as Americans fretted over mounting job losses and rising prices of basic goods and services, a survey released on Wednesday showed.

The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its final November figure for the consumer sentiment index was 76.1, above the median forecast of 75.0, but below the final October reading of 80.9.

The report said 90 percent of consumers surveyed this month cited "unfavorable economic developments" as the main reason for their general pessimism.

"It's a little better than expected, but it doesn't change the downtrend in the Michigan numbers," said Meg Browne, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman.

"The data points to slowing growth in the U.S. economy and the big issue is what's the Federal Reserve going to do about it. Overall this is hardly a market mover," she added.

The data also suggested that consumer spending over the holiday period was likely to decline 4.0 percent to its lowest in five years, the survey said, with younger shoppers and those with lower income likely to hold off spending.

...more...

[DemReadingDU]

24. Roubini: CNBC video

11/20/07 Insight on the housing and mortgage concerns, with Nouriel Roubini, RGEMonitor.com; Thomas Lawler, Lawler Economic and Housing Consulting and CNBC's Melissa Francis

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=597114925&play=1


read more on Roubini's blog:
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/228079

[antigop]

26. The news is better than you might think (oh, geez, read this....)

http://www.star-telegram.com/news/columnists/don_erler//story/312512.html

Even our worst economic data reveal good news about contemporary America. With substantial recent declines in the stock markets, the Dow is up almost 6 percent for the year. The housing and mortgage markets, in free fall for months, are robust enough that 90 percent of subprime loans (the shaky kind) are being repaid on time or within a month of the date due. Some 95 percent of all mortgages are being paid on time.

Again, this is the bad news, which is pretty good. But the good news is spectacular.

Did you know, for example, that last year was a record-setter for exports? Are you aware that 80 percent of poor American households have air conditioning, up from 66 percent a decade earlier? Or that in the lowest fifth of households by income, each member spends as much today as his or her median cohort spent 35 years ago, adjusted for inflation?

Did you know that our Census Bureau's "Gini coefficient," which measures income inequality, has improved by more than 25 percent since 1970? According to our Treasury Department (based on analysis of more than 97,000 tax returns), the inflation-adjusted median income of all tax filers increased by 24 percent between 1996 and 2005.

Far more tax filers in the lowest 40 percent moved up the economic ladder during that decade. And the "filthy rich" taxpayers (the top 0.01 percent) saw their incomes decline during the same period. Only 25 percent of these 1996 ultra-rich earners remained in that group by 2005.

So the overall picture is that of a dynamic economy that is growing rapidly, creating hundreds of thousands of net new jobs per year and generating upward income mobility and improved material conditions for nearly everyone.

Yep. Everything is just fine. Just fine.

[UpInArms]

28. Wow! An example of Rove's writing appears on the scene early!

http://www.demos.org/inequality/

The top one percent of households received 21.8 percent of all pre-tax income in 2005, more than double what that figure was in the 1970s. (The top one percent's share of total income bottomed out at 8.9 percent in 1976.) This is the greatest concentration of income since 1928, when 23.9 percent of all income went to the richest one percent. (Piketty and Saez)

The above figures include capital gains, which are strongly affected by the ups and downs of the financial markets. Excluding capital gains, the richest one percent claimed 17.4 percent of all pre-tax income in 2005, more than double what that figure was in the 1970s. (It bottomed out at 7.8 percent in 1973.) This is the greatest concentration of income since 1936, when the richest one percent received 17.6 percent of total income. (Piketty and Saez)

Between 1979 and 2005, the top five percent of American families saw their real incomes increase 81 percent. Over the same period, the lowest-income fifth saw their real incomes decline 1 percent. (Census Bureau)

In 1979, the average income of the top 5 percent of families was 11.4 times as large as the average income of the bottom 20 percent. In 2005, the ratio was 20.9 times. (EPI, State of Working America 2006-07, Figure 1J)

All of the income gains in 2005 went to the top 10 percent of households, while the bottom 90 percent of households saw income declines. (EPI Snapshot, March 28, 2007)

Unprecedented levels of capital income are fueling inequality in the current business cycle. In the third quarter of 2006, the share of corporate income going to capital (profits and interest) hit an all-time high of 23 percent, with the remaining 77 percent going to employee compensation. Since capital income disproportionately goes to the top of the income scale, this shift towards capital income increases the income gap. (EPI Snapshot, Jan. 17, 2007)



...lots more...

[ozymandius]

30. And the Tooth Fairy is collecting fewer teeth!! It's all good!

:sarcasm:

[Roland99]

34. "Don Erler is president of General Building Maintenance."

Wow! Quite the economic authority there!!

[antigop]

35. I wonder if he provides health insurance for his employees? n/t

[antigop]

40. and I wonder how large raises at his company have been in the last few years n/t

[Warpy]

84. And I was a lowly RN

Blessed be the crackpots, for they shall allow in the light.

[Dr.Phool]

47. Give me some of what he's smoking!

[Demeter]

59. Yeah. There Isn't Much Resale Value In Used Air Conditioners

Sheesh.

[lumberjack_jeff]

107. Gini Coefficient? Improved?

In 1970 it was about 35. It is now 45. In other words, the rich are 25% richer.

Oh, right. For the rich it has improved.

[UpInArms]

27. Recession fears spike among U.S. voters: poll

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071121/bs_nm/usa_poll_economy_dc

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economic mood took a sharp turn for the worse over the past month, with 40 percent of Americans expecting a recession in the next year, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

That was a big rise from a month earlier, when 31 percent of the likely voters polled predicted a recession. The darker mood came as mounting concerns about housing and credit markets pounded Wall Street, and oil prices approached $100 per barrel.

"We've had three months now of hammering about an upcoming recession," pollster John Zogby said. "It's clear that voters have internalized that, and they don't have any reason to feel that the government is up to the task."

The poll showed that nearly two in three thought the United States was on the wrong track, and only about a quarter of those polled gave U.S. economic policy high marks.

The survey of 1,009 likely voters, conducted November 14-17, showed the economic outlook was gloomiest in the U.S. West, where the housing downturn has hit California and Nevada particularly hard. Nearly half of those polled in that region expect a recession in the next year, and less than 17 percent thought house prices in their area would rise.

...more...

[UpInArms]

29. U.S. mortgage-related losses likely up to $300 billion: OECD

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSL2164562520071121

LONDON (Reuters) - Overall losses from the U.S. mortgage market crisis could be up to $300 billion but financial firms and policymakers need to buy time to ensure an orderly work-out, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said on Wednesday.

The OECD said the super fund being set up by Citigroup (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Bank of America (BAC.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) to pool asset-backed securities of ailing special investment vehicles -- thus preventing a further firesale of these assets -- was one mechanism for buying that crucial time.

"The super SIV idea clearly does provide a mechanism that gives 'time' for all the stock adjustment prices to work through," the OECD said in its latest Financial Markets Trends report. "Time ... is key to solving the turmoil."

But the Paris-based forum said the worst of the U.S. housing market downturn had not yet been seen and would continue to depress mortgage-related debt products and derivatives held by banks, hedge funds and insurance companies.

"We still have not hit the worst point in resets, delinquencies and ultimate losses on mortgages," the OECD said, adding some $890 billion of sub-prime, or poor credit quality, mortgages will have rates reset in 2008 -- with the peak expected about March.

...more...

[UpInArms]

31. Paulson says home loan defaults to rise in 2008: report

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUST27386520071121

TOKYO (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the number of potential U.S. home-loan defaults "will be significantly bigger" in 2008 than in 2007, the Wall Street Journal's online edition reported.

"The nature of the problem will be significantly bigger next year because 2006 (mortgages) had lower underwriting standards, no amortization, and no down payments," Paulson said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Tuesday, according to an excerpt on the newspaper's Web site.

"We'll watch carefully mortgages that will be reset," Paulson was quoted as saying.

The newspaper said Paulson was pressing the mortgage-service industry to help a broad range of borrowers become eligible for better loans instead of dealing with mortgage problems on a case-by-case basis.

...more...

So can anyone tell me why this SF was in Tokyo? Did we pay his airfare? Or is this another case of outsourcing the news?

[Roland99]

32. Anyone catch CNBC's ticker snake oil this morning?

I know I didn't have my contacts in yet but on a 55" wide TV I know what I saw!


"Dow only 115 points below Oct. 9 record close" (or Oct. whatever...think it was the 9th). They had a similar one for the S&P (that it was only 12.5 points below it's Oct. record close).


:wtf:
:wtf:
:wtf:

[ozymandius]

46. Their Pez dispensers are full of Xanax.

[ozymandius]

33. I posted this in the Econ forum last night.

I would like your take on it.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=114x30510

a big pile of shit

CDOs (collateralized debt obligations) need insurance to maintain their ability to float declared corporate profit margins as published in their spreadsheets. In order to be insured, the insurer must meet S&P bond rating criteria: scoring higher than an 'A'. Anything less than an 'A' and the biggest insurer of these shitpiles, ACA, becomes insolvent. That, in turn, means that big banks like Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, etc will have to write down how much drag the CDOs have on their portfolios. According to Atrios (whose opinion I trust) this amount of drag is a big stinky pile of shit.

Well... apparently this CDO issue stands on the edge of a knife.

Here's a glimpse at the chase:

ACA Financial Guaranty could default on insurance agreements if Standard and Poor’s chooses to downgrade the bond insurer’s rating ...

In total, ACA Financial insures USD 69bn of asset backed and corporate bonds for 31 counterparties through the use of credit default swap contracts ... Those contracts include coverage of USD 25.7bn in AAA rated ABS CDO notes backed by subprime RMBS, many of which are held on the balance sheets of investment banks.

So a downgrade would effectively wipe out ACA, and the counterparty (the Investment Banks) would be left without insurance for their CDOs.

[Roland99]

36. What are the options? Is it really just two-fold?

1) Let them fail and let the markets fare for themselves (I mean, they want free markets, right?)

2) Pump massive amounts of gov't-backed money from around the world, depressing currencies the world over and increasing gov't debt in order to bail out the idiot speculators?

[ozymandius]

42. I think it goes deeper than two possible scenarios.

There is criminality involved. That's plain.

I recall a few days ago when someone posted an item describing how homeowners are able to default on mortgage payments without penalty. How? The mortgage had been packaged and resold in pieces. Now either the mortgage had been sliced and distributed throughout many bundles. Or the mortgage had been sold, again in slices, over and over again. Under these conditions - ownership of the mortgages was impossible to track.

So the question is: how many times did someone sell a bill of goods?

[Roland99]

45. Well, I was looking to the consequences.

I guess there could a medium in there...some infusion of new debt to ease the pain?

[donkeyotay]

79. So, if you can't make your payments, but you stay like a squatter

do you wind up owning your property free and clear? Might be a stoopid question, but that's how my mind works.

Thanks, ozy, and all the rest of you who keep this thread here as a resource for us all.

[UpInArms]

132. well, actually no - because you can't get a release of lien

and a clear title - it will be a nightmare to attempt to sell the property - and the title agencies will refuse to give title insurance -

:shrug:

[UpInArms]

37. the biggest problem has been the swapping and the wrapping

and the levering by 20 to 100 times without proper financial backing.

This will make the bust of the 80s look like good times.

:scared:

[Roland99]

39. Paulson was pondering a preponderance of principal to prop the pipers

(requiring increased capital on-hand and allow Freddie Mac to buy up mortgages > $417k)

[UpInArms]

50. Goldman Sachs Rakes In Profit in Credit Crisis

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/19/business/19goldman.html?em&ex=1195794000&en=add16081735ef741&ei=5087%0A

For more than three months, as turmoil in the credit market has swept wildly through Wall Street, one mighty investment bank after another has been brought to its knees, leveled by multibillion-dollar blows to their bottom lines.

And then there is Goldman Sachs.

Rarely on Wall Street, where money travels in herds, has one firm gotten it so right when nearly everyone else was getting it so wrong. So far, three banking chief executives have been forced to resign after the debacle, and the pay for nearly all the survivors is expected to be cut deeply.

But for Goldman’s chief executive, Lloyd C. Blankfein, this is turning out to be a very good year. He will surely earn more than the $54.3 million he made last year. If he gets a 20 percent raise — in line with the growth of Goldman’s compensation pool — he will take home at least $65 million. Some expect his pay, which is directly tied to the firm’s performance, to climb as high as $75 million.

Goldman’s good fortune cannot be explained by luck alone. Late last year, as the markets roared along, David A. Viniar, Goldman’s chief financial officer, called a “mortgage risk” meeting in his meticulous 30th-floor office in Lower Manhattan.

...more...

:eyes:

[Ghost Dog]

63. Notice also how Goldman has been downgrading most of its competitors...

eg. yesterday: http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?view=CN&WTmodLOC=C3-News-2&symbol=CSGN.VX&storyID=2007-11-20T183814Z_01_BNG48997_RTRIDST_0_CREDITSUISSE-RESEARCH-GOLDMANSACHS-UPDATE-1.XML&type=qcna

[Ghost Dog]

64. Also (cf. #65 above):

European Stocks Drop; Porsche, Philips, Credit Suisse Retreat
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aUqEdBZRUn8A&refer=europe

Nov. 21 (Bloomberg) -- European stocks declined to the lowest in almost one year, led by exporters and banks, after crude oil approached $100 a barrel and the Federal Reserve cut its growth forecast for the world's biggest economy.

Porsche AG and Royal Philips Electronics NV, which rely on the U.S. for more than a quarter of their sales, led a slump by exporters. Credit Suisse Group, Switzerland's second-largest bank, and France's Societe Generale SA fell after Goldman, Sachs & Co. added the stocks to its ``conviction sell'' list.

/...

[ozymandius]

43. You are so right.

As I responded to Roland's post above: who owns what? We just don't know. Mortgage institutions by the truckloads are screwed.

[Nay]

99. And the marking of these pcs of toilet paper as AAA rated. . .THAT

was a criminal act.

[ozymandius]

38. Here's a bit more.

Hell's Bells Ringing On Wall Street

The rumor is that ACA is trying to renegotiate its credit swaps. ACA filed a 10Q saying that its auditors say it cannot post the required collateral if its credit rating is downgraded:

As discussed in Note 16 to the condensed consolidated interim financial statements, on November 9, 2007 Standard & Poor’s Rating Services (“S&P”) placed its financial strength rating of ACA Financial Guaranty Corporation (“ACA FG”), a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company, on “CreditWatch with negative implications”. Should S&P ultimately downgrade ACA FG’s financial strength rating below “A-”, under the existing terms of the Company’s insured credit swap transactions, the company would be required to post collateral based on the fair value of the insured credit swaps as of the date of posting. The failure to post collateral would be an event of default, resulting in a termination payment in an amount approximately equal to the collateral call. This termination payment would give rise to a claim under the related ACA FG insurance policy. Based on current fair values, neither the Company nor ACA Financial Guaranty would have the ability to post such collateral or make such termination payments.

-cut-

The really funny thing is that ACA probably has decent leverage. If it gets a renegotiation on the terms of its swap deals, the loss will be less to those who are holding those securities and CDOs. This fact alone points out the insanity of this form of "insurance". When your insurance company can basically make you renegotiate by posing the possibility of default, you don't have any insurance.

http://maxedoutmama.blogspot.com/2007/11/hells-bells-ringing-on-wall-street.html

[Danascot]

60. Empire of Debt

This was posted somewhere on DU a little while back. Excerpt:


Here is an analogy. Let's say you are offered a chance to play roulette, a very risky game of chance, but with an option for insurance which guarantees you will suffer no more than a tiny loss.

Let's say you place a $10 bet, in the hopes of winning $100. Your "insurance"--what we call a hedge, as in "hedging your bets"--costs only $1. Thus you can gamble $10, with a chance of winning as much as $100, and your loss is limited to a mere $1--the cost of your hedge. If you lose the $10, the other side of the hedge trade--whoever took your $1--will give you $10. Life is good, n'est pas?

Note what this hedge does: it makes you believe a high-risk game can be played at almost no risk. But alas, the game is inherently risky, and the reduction of risk is ultimately illusory: you can't change roulette into a low-risk gamble.

Since this is such a low-risk bet, you are soon gambling, say $100 billion. And why not? The hedges are so cheap! Abd everything goes swimmingly until the day you lose the $100 billion. Ah, bad luck, Mate; but no worries, you turn to the other side of your hedge and politely request your $100 billion.

Oops--that guy just lost his bets, too, and can't pay you. Now the risk of the underlying game is fully revealed; the entire hedge which made it all so "safe" is revealed as a house of cards which depends on all the other players being able to pay off their bets. Once they can't, well, as the saying goes, all bets are off.

To hide your immense losses, you continue to claim your bet is still worth $100 billion. Since you aren't required to "mark to market," i.e. reveal the market value of your bet, you stash the $100 billion loss in "Level 3" of your assets--a dark place where you can temporarily hide your worthless bets.

http://www.oftwominds.com/blognov07/empire-debt1.html

[Ghost Dog]

61. Reminds me of this, the other day from the LEAP2020 people:

Note factor Nº 3 (Nº 4 is no surprise, but I was planning to investigate Nº 3):

GEAB N°19 - Contents
- Published on November 16, 2007 - http://leap2020.eu/GEAB-in-English_r25.html?PHPSESSID=1b35f747f8c8cdee7b8beb462c7de388

International banks get dragged into financial crisis’ « black hole »: Four triggering factors of a major financial bankruptcy
LEAP/E2020 now estimates that at least one large US financial institution (bank, insurance, investment fund) will file for bankruptcy before February 2008, sparking off bankruptcies among a series of other financial institutions and banks in Europe (in the UK especially), in Asia and in various emerging countries... (page 2)
Read public announcement

Factor N° 1 - Drastic drop in revenues for banks operating in the US
The CDOs altogether are now dragged into a general confidence crisis, and they represent a large part of bank assets since, in the past few years, large banks from lenders became investors and speculators, like hedge funds… (page 4)
Read public announcement

Factor N°2 - Slumping value of assets owned by these banks resulting from new US banking regulation (FASB regulation 157)
On November 15, 2007, a regulatory factor, the FASB 157 standard (designed to enhance transparency of financial statements of financial institutions operating in the US) speeds up the pace of financial organisations' collapses (American and others)… (page 7)
Subscribe

Factor N°3 – Increasing weakness of bond insurers
Bond insurers are financial markets' « supports ». Completely unknown to the public today, their names could soon become as common as the word « subprime » has… (page 9)
Subscribe

Factor N°4 – Economic recession in the US
As a complement to our anticipations of the impact of the US economic recession for banks operating in the US, we find it useful to analyse here how much US official statistics have become totally surrealistic… (page 12)
Subscribe

[ozymandius]

44. Markets take a loo-loo of a step

9:38
Dow 12,878.29 Down 131.85 (1.01%)
Nasdaq 2,567.87 Down 28.94 (1.11%)
S&P 500 1,424.75 Down 14.95 (1.04%)
10-Yr Bond 4.0140% Down 0.0400
NYSE Volume 180,604,580
Nasdaq Volume 105,602,090

[ozymandius]

48. Wall Street Drops in Early Trading

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street plunged in early trading Tuesday, finding little to placate its worries about the wilting mortgage market ahead of Thanksgiving. The Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 100 points in the opening minutes.

The yield on the Treasury's 10-year note fell below 4 percent as investors sought the safety of government securities.

The stock market has been thrashing around recently as investors attempt to gauge how companies around the world will fare amid a further slowdown in the U.S. housing market, deterioration of credit and record oil prices that crested overnight above $99 a barrel.

-cut-

Government-sponsored lender Freddie Mac, which reported a $2 billion quarter loss Tuesday and saw shares plummet nearly 29 percent, declined another 9 percent early Wednesday after an analyst downgrade. Freddie's counterpart Fannie Mae also dropped for a second straight day, as did Countrywide Financial Corp., the nation's largest mortgage lender.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071121/wall_street.html

[spotbird]

53. Is the chart above broken?

It is still on yesterday in my computer.

[silverlib]

55. Mine too...

I thought it must just be me, as no one else was mentioning it.

Edited to add that the bottom charts (gold, etc) are updating, just not the others

[silverlib]

56. Now working...(n/t)

[spotbird]

49. What would Jesus buy?

'What Would Jesus Buy?' crusades against consumerism

Part horror movie, part agitprop theater, "What Would Jesus Buy?" is a documentary on a mission. Loud, proud and cheeky, the film runs roughshod over corporate behemoths Disney, Starbucks and Wal-Mart as it preaches a sermon of simplicity and consumer awareness.

"WWJB?" wends its way across the country, following the antics of the Church of Stop Shopping, a gospel-flavored musical comedy troupe that aims to educate Americans about the over-commercialization of Christmas and related ills. Orating from his port-a-pulpit and backed by two bio-diesel busloads of performance activists draped in choir robes, the group's leader, Bill Talen -- better known as Rev. Billy -- rails against the evils of Yuletide greed, credit card debt and $4 lattes.
http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/la-et-jesus21nov21,1,5064828.story?ctrack=1&cset=true

[Theres-a]

51. Nice

I saw him somewhere before-good stuff.

[Viva_La_Revolution]

54. He's been on Thom Hartman's show a couple of times.

:)

edit: he's on DN and truthout now
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x2324179

[Roland99]

57. 11:20am - Well into triple digit loss for the Dow. PERILOUSLY close to 12,850 support mark.

Dow 12,865.86 -144.28
Nasdaq 2,555.58 -41.23
S&P 500 1,420.55 -19.15
10 YR 4.00% -0.06
Oil $98.55 $0.52
Gold $800.00 $8.60

[ozymandius]

66. lunchtime check-in

12:06
Dow 12,898.70 Down 111.44 (0.86%)
Nasdaq 2,567.21 Down 29.60 (1.14%)
S&P 500 1,425.70 Down 14.00 (0.97%)
10-Yr Bond 4.018% Down 0.036
NYSE Volume 1,762,232,375
Nasdaq Volume 905,113,625

12:00 pm : The stock market has had a negative bias throughout the session as investors sell equities and flock to safe-havens. Currently, the major indices are off their worst levels, but continue to trade with substantial losses.

The risk aversion trade is apparent in the yen's strength and the rally in U.S. Treasuries where the yield on the 10-year note dropped below 4.00% for the first time since 2005, before backing up a bit.

There is also a concern among investors about holding long positions going in the Thanksgiving holiday, which is playing a role in the selling pressure. Weakness is broad-based with all ten of the major economic sectors in the red.

The financial sector (-1.9%), like yesterday, is this session's laggard. AIG (AIG 51.38, -3.06) is the main drag on the sector after Lehman Brothers said investors should brace for more write-downs from the company. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Retailing Index (-1.0%) is showing weakness as a number of retailers reported earnings that fell short of consensus estimates.

The defensive oriented consumer staples (-0.1%) and utilities (-0.2%) sectors are outperforming on a relative basis.

There are a couple of economic releases of note this session.

New claims for unemployment for the week ended November 30 fell to 330,000 from 341,000 the week before. That is almost exactly in line with the four week moving average of 329,750. The news won't attract much market attention, but it does serve as a reminder that businesses are not acting in recessionary fashion.

October Leading Indicators fell to -0.5%, compared to last month's reading of 0.3%. Economists expected the reading to come in at -0.3%. There was a slight increase in selling pressure immediately following the report.

Separately, the weekly Dept. of Energy report showed that crude stock piles had a draw of 1.07 million barrels when a build of 750,000 was expected. Crude has traded in a volatile manner following the release, and is currently down 0.7% to $97.38. In electronic trading before the open, crude oil hit an all-time high of $99.29 a barrel.

As a reminder, due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the bond market closes early at 13:00 ET this session, while stock market remains open for the full day. On Thursday (11/22) all U.S. markets are closed and on Friday (11/23) the stock market and bond market close early at 13:00 ET. DJ30 -126.72 NASDAQ -32.88 SP500 -15.57 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2058/751/842 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2495/687/554 mln

[Ghost Dog]

67. Europe Suspends Mortgage Bond Trading Between Banks (Update1)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=a7zhJ1tkFBxI&refer=europe

Nov. 21 (Bloomberg) -- European banks agreed to suspend trading in the $2.8 trillion market for mortgage debt known as covered bonds to halt a slump that has closed the region's main source of financing for home lenders.

The European Covered Bond Council, an industry group that represents securities firms and borrowers, recommended banks withdraw from trades for the first time in its three-year history until Nov. 26. Banks are still obliged to provide prices to investors, according to the statement today.

Banks including Barclays Capital, HSBC Holdings Plc and UniCredit SpA took the step as investors shun bank debt on concern lenders face more mortgage-related losses. Abbey National Plc, the U.K. home lender owned by Banco Santander SA, became the third financial company to cancel an offering of covered bonds within a week today as investors demanded banks pay the highest interest premiums to sell bonds in the 12 years since Merrill Lynch & Co. began collecting the data.

``We are in a deteriorating situation,'' Patrick Amat, chairman of the Brussels-based ECBC, said in a telephone interview. ``A single sale can be like a hot potato. If repeated, this can lead to an unacceptable spread widening and you end up with an absurd situation.''

Covered bonds are securities backed by mortgages or loans to public sector institutions. Banks designed the notes to offer more protection to bondholders than asset-backed debt by making the borrower liable for repayments if the assets underlying the securities aren't sufficient. They typically have the highest credit ratings.

Spread Widening

Abbey National in London said today it had postponed its sale of covered bonds because of ``poor'' demand. AIB Mortgage Bank, a unit of Dublin-based Allied Irish Banks Plc, pulled a covered bond sale in euros yesterday and Ahorro y Titulizacion, an investment unit controlled by Spanish savings banks, decided against offering debt on Nov. 16.

``In light of the current market situation and in order to avoid undue over-acceleration in the widening of spreads,'' the committee of banks and borrowers ``recommends that inter-bank market making be suspended,'' the council said in an e-mailed press statement.

The ECBC established an ``8-to-8 committee'' of eight banks that arrange sales of covered bonds and eight representatives for issuers of the debt in September to set recommendations in deteriorating markets.

``Without market making between banks, investors will shun the sales of new covered bonds,'' said Santiago Rubio, who oversees 14 billion euros ($21 billion) of assets as head of fixed income at La Caixa's asset management arm in Madrid.

/.

Yup. This will feed into Money Markets, by the sounds of it...?

[Roland99]

68. My hairs are starting to stand on end.

I think we're REALLY close to that precipice.

[muleboy303]

69. yep, 2nd day running

to dip below 12,850 then back up...

i thought the Working Group on Financial Markets, known by many as the PPT, and known by few as the "Illinois Enema Bandits" would have an easier job today with a lot of traders off early for vacation.

but so far it looks like they're having to work very hard.

i'm expecting now that Friday will be filled with news reports of record crowds and record sales over the weekend, conveniently leaving out the part about reduced prices so early.

time will tell

[Ghost Dog]

70. See also: Dealers in the dark as they await 'the turn'

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2007/nov/21/banking.creditcrunch
o Larry Elliott
o The Guardian
o Wednesday November 21 2007

Two factors explain the steady rise in the City's Libor rates over the past week to their highest level in two months. The first is the recognition that the credit crunch is far from over, and that strains on the financial system may be getting worse rather than better. The second is that dealers now have one eye on the end of the year, when institutions may have to borrow heavily in order to balance their books.

Explaining the long-term factors leading to a widening of the spread between bank rate and interbank rates is simple. The spread widened appreciably in the first stages of the financial crisis of the summer, from an average of 13 basis points throughout Labour's period in power to more than 100 basis points (more than a percentage point above bank rate).

The spread then narrowed as dealers grew optimistic that central banks were on top of the crisis and that most of the bad news had come to light. In the light of the mounting losses for US banks from sub-prime loans, the fact that the American housing market is still nowhere near bottoming out and the British government's bind over Northern Rock, such optimism increasingly looks misplaced.

Charles Dumas, economist at Lombard Street Research, said yesterday: "The credit crunch is convulsing the financial world, and is a major threat to US and European economic growth in 2008. Profits are likely to be down, and the stock markets are suffering as the masters of the universe shift from denial to acknowledging their feet of clay."

Adding to this long-term pressure on the cost of money are short-term worries about demand for funds in late December - a period known in the City as "the turn".

Institutions have to balance their books by the year's end, and given that nobody in the markets has the faintest idea what the demand for money is going to be in order to offset losses from the sub-prime debacle, the cost of two-month and three-month borrowing - covering the new year period - is more expensive than one-month money.

Nick Parsons, strategist at NAB Capital, said: "Banks that have access to cash are hoarding it. Those that haven't are having to pay out for it. We simply don't know what the demand from institutions is going to be at 'the turn'. It could be huge, but at the moment it is unknown."

/.

[Roland99]

80. Dangerous. Not far off from consumers getting cash advances from one credit card to pay another.

[fedsron2us]

93. No surprise to those who watch LIBOR

it has been flashing warning signals for some days now. A couple of big British mortgage lenders are looking decidedly sickly.

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/article3179674.ece

[Ghost Dog]

97. EURIBOR also

http://www.euribor.org/html/content/euribor_about.html

[ozymandius]

76. renewed retreat

1:58
Dow 12,892.28 Down 117.86 (0.91%)
Nasdaq 2,579.27 Down 17.54 (0.68%)
S&P 500 1,426.64 Down 13.06 (0.91%)
10-Yr Bond 4.024% Down 0.03
NYSE Volume 2,676,716,500
Nasdaq Volume 1,336,800,125

1:30 pm : Recovery efforts have faded, as the major indices are back on the retreat. The stock market, however, is still trading well above its intraday low.

20 of the 30 Dow components are trading lower. AIG (AIG 52.24, -2.20 ) American Express (AXP 55.62, -1.38) and Merck (MRK 56.94, -0.98 ) are the main laggards. General Motors (GM 27.32, +1.03), which was a laggard earlier in the session, is now providing leadership following the positive report regarding its obligation to GMAC.

DJ30 -108.68 NASDAQ -19.55 SP500 -13.21 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1.20 bln/1791/1095 NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2233/1000/814 mln

1:00 pm : A nice pickup in buying interest in financials (-0.6%) and tech (-0.5%) has lifted the major indices to their best levels of the session, although they are still in the red. The Nasdaq Composite, for its part, has pared roughly 40 points from its lowest levels of the session.

Meanwhile, General Motors (GM 27.09, +0.80) is providing a lift to the Dow, after it trades up roughly $1.50 following a Bloomberg article that states GM has "no further obligation" to fund GMAC.

Insurance company Aon (AON 47.04, +0.27) is outperforming this session. According to the AP, Aon was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel in response to the company's strong earnings report.DJ30 -67.22 NASDAQ -12.62 SP500 -6.89 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1929/935/1.07 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2491/734/726 mln

[Emillereid]

82. Wonder if some deus ex-machina will come through to save the day - again.

[ozymandius]

86. The "god in the machine" is the same as yesterday. My question is how

big is their coin? What machinations other than repos can the PPT wield to save their darling market averages?

[Buttercup McToots]

77. Gold hit $800 again...Kitco not reflecting correct price at times...

Be aware...I use
http://www.apmex.com/

[Buttercup McToots]

78. USD $75.13...@ 2:07 am

:eyes:

[Ghost Dog]

89. 74.94 @ 20:50 GMT

[Robbien]

81. This is hard to believe. Private Equity firms are setting up more of this leveraged junk

Under the Headline: Greed Trumps Fear as KKR Gets Banks to Arrange CLOs
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aHu38eNOhoKs&refer=news

After sticking banks with more than $300 billion of leveraged buyout debt, New York-based Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co., Schwarzman's Blackstone Group LP and Black's Apollo Management LP are raising money for collateralized loan obligations that will buy the assets for as little as 95 cents on the dollar.

Morgan Stanley, Citigroup Inc. and their Wall Street competitors, which reaped a record $8.4 billion in fees from the buyout firms in the first half of 2007, financed at least seven private-equity CLOs in the past two months, while cutting off other managers, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. KKR officials said they accounted for about 40 percent of the funds created since August.

``Private equity firms are such big repeat customers that they can demand investment banks'' serve them, said Martin Fridson, chief executive officer of high-yield research firm FridsonVision LLC in New York. ``They'll say `we're going to shut you out of future business if you don't give us what we want.'''

KKR Financial Holdings LLC, the publicly traded affiliate of KKR that invests in credit markets, raised two and started a third CLO in the past month from banks including Morgan Stanley, the second-biggest U.S. securities firm by market value, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings show.

CLOs, a form of collateralized debt obligations, buy high- yield, high-risk loans and package them into new securities. The loans are typically rated below Baa3 by Moody's Investors Service and BBB- by Standard & Poor's.

more . . .

[ozymandius]

87. reminds me of Michael Milken's junk peddling

But of course some desperate people will buy these clunkers. If for no other reason than they just don't want to wash the taste of shit out of their mouths.

[muleboy303]

90. whoa shiiiiiit

did i say the PPT had a 1 in 3 chance of holding the DOW over 12,850 ?

that was a typo, i meant 1 in 30 :)

[Ghost Dog]

83. Ozy's #33 led me to: Financial Times' Alphaville on a "Generalised Systemic Financial Meltdown"

(See links, lots of comment at site):

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/228234
Nouriel Roubini | Nov 21, 2007
The Financial Times' Alphaville column comments today on my prediction of a "generalised systemic financial meltdown" . Here is what the FT says:

Stand by for “generalised systemic financial meltdown”

“Gold is for optimists. I’m diversifying into canned goods.”

So said one reader on Felix Salmon’s Market Movers blog, in response to a post on crisis blogging.

The trouble with being the leading harbinger of doom is that, rather like crack, you’re going to need to keep pushing the limits to keep achieving the same highs. So Salmon notes that the über-bears, no longer satisfied with dire predictions of a US recession, have now moved onto heralding a full-blown financial crisis. Only an all-out, systemic meltdown will do.

The bear in question, Nouriel Roubini, has long been positioned firmly on the gloomy side of the outlook scale - but the past week’s batch of predictions has been ominous even by his own dark standards. In fact, they’re nigh on apocalyptic.

...

The trouble is that Roubini has a habit of being right - uncannily so in his predictions on US housing.

...

But here’s the catch. Roubini argues that the inevitability, or at least high likelihood, of a US recession is now becoming more widely accepted. He notes the Economist cover story, and that leading Wall Street analysts previously in the soft landing camp have shifted their stance. The debate, says Roubini, has now shifted from ‘if recession’, to ‘how deep, protracted and severe’ such a recession will be.

So for all the bears out there, crack pipes to the ready, here is your latest hit:

I now see the risk of a severe and worsening liquidity and credit crunch leading to a generalized meltdown of the financial system of a severity and magnitude like we have never observed before. In this extreme scenario whose likelihood is increasing we could see a generalized run on some banks; and runs on a couple of weaker (non-bank) broker dealers that may go bankrupt with severe and systemic ripple effects on a mass of highly leveraged derivative instruments that will lead to a seizure of the derivatives markets (think of LTCM to the power of three); a collapse of the ABCP market and a disorderly collapse of the SIVs and conduits; massive losses on money market funds with a run on both those sponsored by banks and those not sponsored by banks (with the latter at even more severe risk as the recent effective bailout of the formers’ losses by theirs sponsoring banks is not available to those not being backed by banks); ever growing defaults and losses ($500 billion plus) in subprime, near prime and prime mortgages with severe known-on effect on the RMBS and CDOs market; massive losses in consumer credit (auto loans, credit cards); severe problems and losses in commercial real estate and related CMBS; the drying up of liquidity and credit in a variety of asset backed securities putting the entire model of securitization at risk; runs on hedge funds and other financial institutions that do not have access to the Fed’s lender of last resort support; a sharp increase in corporate defaults and credit spreads; and a massive process of re-intermediation into the banking system of activities that were until now altogether securitized.

Or in other words, a “generalized systemic financial meltdown.”

[muleboy303]

85. WCBN

a corollary to Roubini's GFSD may be WCBN

i read of it a couple weeks ago,
how future US foreign policy and monetary policy
can be explained in four words

"We're China's Bitches Now"

[Roland99]

88. Nearly closing numbers - Ouch...quick drop in the last few min.

Dow 12,790.99 -219.15
Nasdaq 2,562.12 -34.69
S&P 500 1,415.96 -23.74
Oil $97.29 $-0.74
10 YR 4.02% -0.03
Gold $798.60 $7.20

[Ghost Dog]

91. 20:58 GMT I see (& still dropping)

here: http://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/overview

Dow 12,804.08 Down 206.06 (1.58%)
Nasdaq 2,563.66 Down 33.15 (1.28%)
S&P 500 1,417.33 Down 22.37 (1.55%)
10-Yr Bond 4.0240% Down 0.0300
NYSE Volume 3,871,706,500
Nasdaq Volume 1,952,580,250

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

92. 12850?

Bueller?

[muleboy303]

94. friday gonna be durn interestin'

if the markets tank again/more (wonder how the curb rules are on half days?)

will they call it

"Blacker Friday"?

"Black-Black Friday"

"Black-Not Black Friday"

[Roland99]

95. Closing numbers: 12,799 for the Dow

Dow 12,799.04 -211.10
Nasdaq 2,562.15 -34.66
S&P 500 1,416.77 -22.93
Oil $97.29 $-0.74
10 YR 4.02% -0.03
Gold $798.60 $7.20


They sure did try bumping it up to 12,800 by the end but not quite enough juice left.

[Ghost Dog]

96. Source linked above, seems to have stopped moving, now reads:

Dow 12,797.66 Down 212.48 (1.63%)
Nasdaq 2,562.15 Down 34.66 (1.33%)
S&P 500 1,416.77 Down 22.93 (1.59%)
10-Yr Bond 4.0240% Down 0.0300
NYSE Volume 4,045,941,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,034,554,000

[Ghost Dog]

98. Hang on, it is moving: Volume is still rising:

Dow 12,797.66 Down 212.48 (1.63%)
Nasdaq 2,562.15 Down 34.66 (1.33%)
S&P 500 1,416.77 Down 22.93 (1.59%)
10-Yr Bond 4.0240% Down 0.0300
NYSE Volume 4,058,894,500
Nasdaq Volume 2,034,735,120

(Also, the cnn charts in the OP show lower DOW readings...)

[JNelson6563]

100. An ugly end to a not very nice story

I don't know if any of you Marketeers are still around but if you are, I wish you all a wonderful Thanksgiving. :hi:

I think you all are just the best.

Cheers,
Julie

[Roland99]

101. And the same to you and all the other SMW contributors and lurkers!

Gobble Gobble!

:)

[philly_bob]

103. And here's another thanks from a long-time lurker

... who's in Gold because of reading SMW!

[lumberjack_jeff]

106. Thanks Ozymandius!

[ozymandius]

111. You're welcom lumberjack_jeff. And thanks.

Have a great holiday! :hi:

[Ghost Dog]

102. Slainte! Roland had the right numbers, Yahoo was very slow.

Markets elsewhere will, of course, continue open...

[Ghost Dog]

104. US Economic Gloom Brings New Dollar Lows

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071121/dollar.html?.v=5
Wednesday November 21, 4:57 pm ET
Dollar Hits Record Lows on US Economic Worries, Talks of Another Interest Rate Cut

NEW YORK (AP) -- The dollar sank to new lows Wednesday on pessimism about the American economy and speculation that Washington will cut interest rates again.

The euro spiked to $1.4856 before retreating slightly to $1.4848 in late afternoon trading. It broke the $1.48 mark for the first time on Tuesday, when it settled at $1.4815.

The dollar also hit a two-year low against the Japanese yen, falling as far as 108.27 yen before rising slightly to 108.68 yen. That was still down from 109.69 yen on Tuesday.

The Swiss franc rose to a second consecutive record against the dollar. The U.S. currency fell to 1.1025 Swiss francs before climbing up to 1.1029 Swiss francs, still down from 1.1060 Swiss francs late Tuesday.

...

But the dollar rose against the British pound Wednesday, which was down to $2.0644 from $2.0667.

The pound is at its lowest level against the euro in more than four years.

The dollar also rose against the Canadian dollar to 98.76 Canadian cents from 98.31 cents Tuesday. The Canadian currency is still up more than 15 percent against the dollar this year. On Nov. 7, it hit 90.59 Canadian cents, its highest level since the era of modern floating exchange rates began in 1950.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

105. Dollar Poised for Drop to `Final' Support, Bank of America Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aZm1l8V7_qjg&refer=currency

Nov. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Dollar Index may fall at least 1.6 percent by year-end to a level that equates to $1.506 per euro, as the Federal Reserve will lower borrowing costs to support the economy, according to Bank of America Corp.

The Dollar Index, which gauges the value of the dollar against six major currencies, including the euro and yen, may reach the ``final'' technical support level of 73.92, the bank said in a research note today. The index, traded on ICE Futures U.S. in New York, has declined 10 percent this year and touched 74.95 today, the lowest since its creation in 1973.

``The overall outlook for the dollar remains bleak,'' Kamal Sharma, a currency strategist at Bank of America in London, said in an interview. ``If we don't hold onto that level, there's limited chance for a rebound in the dollar. That adds a technical argument to the fundamental argument for remaining bearish on the dollar.''

/...

[UpInArms]

108. heckofajob Dimson!

and I do hope everyone else (excluding all of the BFEE and their ilk) have a wonderful Thanksgiving!

:hi:

[ozymandius]

112. Happy wharfy Thanksgiving BFEE!

May their turkey be served undercooked and spoiled. :puke:

[Solar_Power]

109. Is there a bottom?

[ozymandius]

110. And my blessings to you and everyone.

I sincerely hope that you are able to appreciate the silences and personal qualities that make this holiday pleasurable to you.

[Ghost Dog]

113. Japan Nikkei hits new 16-mth low on yen and credit

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINTKV00294120071122?rpc=44
Wed Nov 21, 2007 7:08pm EST

TOKYO, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei tumbled to a new 16-month low on Thursday, battered down by a Wall Street fall on growing credit worries and a rapidly strengthening yen that hit exporters such as Canon Inc (7751.T: Quote, Profile, Research).

At 0004 GMT the Nikkei (.N225: Quote, Profile, Research) was down 0.63 percent at 14,744.44 after touching a new 16-month low of 14,726.62 at the open. The broader TOPIX index (.TOPX: Quote, Profile, Research) was down 1 percent at 1,424.95, just a touch above the two-year low of 1,420.57 it hit on Tuesday.

/.

[Ghost Dog]

114. HK stocks seen hitting 2-mth trough

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=hongKongMktRpt&storyID=2007-11-22T005240Z_01_HKG275997_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-HONGKONG-STOCKS-PREOPEN.XML
Thu Nov 22, 2007 12:52 AM GMT

HONG KONG, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Hong Kong stocks should fall on Thursday in line with Wall Street, as signs emerge that the credit crisis is likely to worsen, boding ill for the listing of money manager Value Partners Group Ltd (0806.HK: Quote, Profile , Research).

"Punters will get hurt," Francis Lun, general manager at Fulbright Securities, said of investors who took bets that Value Partners would post solid gains in its debut.

As for the broad market, Lun said the market may see a 1,000-point drop, or a nearly 4 percent slide, which would mark a fresh 2-month low.

/.

[ozymandius]

115. I've just been cruising some favorite econ blogs sites.

Collectively, everyone is having an "oh shit" moment. The primary concern is what happens when every major economic continent experiences credit contractions. I have yet to find a clear voice to channel rational outcomes. The absence of such voice makes me shudder.

[Ghost Dog]

116. What I hear mostly all over (but from 'Western' perspective?) also, Ozy.

But then, eg:

China to see only mild impact from subprime crisis says central bank
http://asia.news.yahoo.com/071122/afp/071122024538business.html

BEIJING (AFP) - Chinese exporters might see only a mild impact from the US subprime crisis but should explore other markets to minimise any fallout, the nation's central bank governor was quoted Thursday as saying.

"The subprime crisis in the United States has dampened US consumers' spending and has likely affected some European consumers as well," Zhou Xiaochuan, head of the People's Bank of China, told the Xinhua news agency.

The next two months of US holiday spending would show how serious it was, but it was likely there would only be a "mild effect" on Chinese exporters and the Chinese economy, he was quoted as saying.

Nevertheless, he urged export-oriented companies in China to explore other markets rather than focus only on the US, to minimise the effect of a possible slowdown in trade with the world's biggest economy.

Zhou was speaking to Xinhua after attending a meeting in South Africa of the Group of 20 major economies.

/.

I'll try to post a few further updates on this thread during the next 24 hours or so...

Yen continues to rise, I see predicted...

[Ghost Dog]

117. FOREX-Dlr sets fresh lows as market dares Fed to cut (USDIndex hit 74.916)

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINL2219048420071122?rpc=611

LONDON, Nov 22 (Reuters) - The dollar hit a record low against the euro, the Swiss franc and a basket of currencies on Thursday, as the market upped the ante on the Federal Reserve to deliver an interest rate cut next month.

Adding to downward pressure on the dollar was a recovery in equity markets and a slight pick up in risk appetite, which made investors more willing to put on riskier trades in high-yielding or emerging market currencies.

The more risk-friendly mood also hit the yen -- a favourite source of cheap funding for the carry trades. The Japanese currency eased from the previous day's 2-1/2 year peaks versus the dollar, while high-yielding Australia and New Zealand units -- top carry targets -- gained broadly.

...

"We are looking for continued dollar weakness and would not be surprised to see euro break $1.50 within weeks rather than months," said Teis Knuthsen, head of FX research at Danske Markets in Copenhagen. "Primarily it's still the relative economic development between the U.S. versus the rest of the world, combined with the ongoing financial crisis which is heavily concentrated in the U.S.," he added.

The euro hit a record high of $1.4873 according to Reuters data on Thursday, bringing its year-to-date gains to around 12.5 percent. It also set fresh all-time highs against the ECB's trade-weighted basket of 24 currencies at 111.17 <EUREER=ECBF>.

The dollar fell to a fresh historic trough of 1.1007 Swiss francs <CHF=>, before recovering a little to trade at 1.1022 francs by 0811 GMT.

The dollar index, which measures the dollar's value against a basket of major currencies, hit a record low of 74.916 (.DXY: Quote, Profile, Research).

/...

[Ghost Dog]

125. Euro hits fresh record high against greenback

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/071122/afp/071122040446business.html

TOKYO (AFP) - The euro hit a fresh record high against the dollar in Asian trade Thursday as investors fled from the greenback and shunned risk amid gloomy prospects for the US economy, dealers said.

The dollar has also been hurt by growing speculation that overseas investors may diversify from the US unit, they added.

The euro hit an all-time high of 1.4872 dollars in late Tokyo morning trade from its previous record of 1.4870 reached in New York on Wednesday.

But the single European currency, created in 1999, later eased to 1.4854 in Asian trade.

The single European unit also firmed to 161.54 yen from 161.02.

The dollar meanwhile edged up to 108.70 yen from 108.38, after earlier touching 108.27 yen, the lowest since June 2005.

The greenback pared back its losses against the yen in the wake of a smaller fall in Japanese share prices compared with a day earlier, said Yoshifumi Suzuki, forex strategist at Hachijuni Bank.

Market participants are worried the greenback could go into free-fall against the Japanese unit, even to the 105-yen level, dealers said.

But they do not expect the Japanese central bank to intervene in the near term to rein in the stronger yen, which is hurting Japanese exporters.

"There is no longer any emotional attachment nor aversion against the yen's appreciation among Japanese politicians and corporate executives which we saw a few years ago," said Toru Umemoto, chief forex strategist at Barclays Capital.

Suzuki agreed, saying: "While the euro continues to climb and the dollar to fall, their central banks are not considering intervention, so there is no reason why the Bank of Japan would do so."

The dollar has been pounded by speculation that investors are considering diversifying from the greenback due to prospects of slower growth in the world's largest economy and further interest rate cuts in coming months.

...

Market fears that economic growth is skidding were evident in the US two-year bond yield dropping below three percent ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, the lowest since December 2004, dealers said.

/..

[Ghost Dog]

129. Gold above $800 as dollar hits record low vs euro

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=goldMktRpt&storyID=2007-11-22T071954Z_01_NSP126350_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-PRECIOUS-UPDATE-2-REPEATED.XML

TOKYO, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Gold firmed and held above $800 an ounce on Thursday, regaining strength as worries over credit markets and slowing U.S. growth raised its appeal as an alternative investment.

Spot gold <XAU=> rose to $804.70/805.40 an ounce from $799.80/800.50 late in New York, when it gained nearly $6 on a tumbling dollar and near-record crude oil.

Koji Suzuki, a market analyst at Kazaka Commodity Co Ltd, said the gold market was focused on how the currency and crude oil markets were likely to move after traders returned from this week's holidays.

U.S. markets are closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday, while those in Japan will be closed on Friday for a national holiday.

"Whatever happens gold prices will be stuck at high levels," Suzuki said.

Dealers pegged immediate resistance at $809, with near-term support levels seen at $797 and $780.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

118. Asian Stocks Decline on Concern Subprime Losses Will Increase

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aWUUBRVVEXe0&refer=asia

Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks declined, sending the region's benchmark to a two-month low and extending a global sell-off triggered by concern widening credit-market losses will slow economic growth.

National Australia Bank Ltd., the nation's largest, fell after saying it may have to take over debt sold by Rams Home Loans Group if the mortgage company fails to secure funding. China Merchants Bank Co. led the CSI 300 Index to its biggest loss in two weeks on speculation the worsening U.S. housing-loan crisis could slow China's economy.

``There are concerns the U.S. economy may slow down more and longer than expected,'' said Kim Young Il, who oversees $1.1 billion at Hanwha Investment Trust Management Co. in Seoul. ``The current correction may last two or three months.''

BHP Billiton Ltd. and Inpex Holdings Inc. dropped after metals prices declined and oil retreated from a record.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.7 percent to 153.67 at 5 p.m. in Tokyo, set for its lowest close since Sept. 18. About two stocks fell for each that gained. Declines have wiped out about $2.9 trillion of value from global stock markets in the first 20 days of the month, according to data tracked by Bloomberg.

The Topix index slid 0.1 percent, after having dropped 21 percent from its February peak, making Japan the first of the world's 10 biggest stock markets to enter a bear market this year. The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds fell yesterday to a 23-month low of 1.439 percent on concern global growth will slow.

Global Sell-off

Benchmarks declined elsewhere in the region, except for Taiwan, Thailand, Sri Lanka and Pakistan. U.S. stocks dropped yesterday, wiping out the Standard & Poor's 500 Index gains this year, while European stocks fell to a one-year low.

...

Shipping stocks also declined after the Baltic Dry Index, a measure of commodity-shipping costs on different routes and ship sizes, dropped 1.2 percent yesterday, its sixth straight decline.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

119. HK shares slide further as HSBC hits 1-½ yr low

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINHKG30604820071122?rpc=611

HONG KONG, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Hong Kong stocks fell sharply for a second straight day on Thursday, as tumbling mainland equity markets sparked a broad sell-off, reversing a morning rebound and driving China plays down 2.7 percent.

The pervading gloom cast its spell on the debut of Hong Kong-based money manager Value Partners Group Ltd (0806.HK: Quote, Profile, Research), which raised US$373 million in an initial public offering that was priced at the top of an indicated range. It finished at HK$7.63, matching its IPO price.

The market has fallen in all but one of the last six sessions. It tapped a fresh two-month trough in early trade, with global bank HSBC Holdings plc (0005.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) hitting a low not seen since April 2006, before rebounding by midday. But shares reversed course again after mainland-listed equities (.CSI300: Quote, Profile, Research) tumbled on concerns about the health of the U.S. economy. Since many of the stocks traded here are also listed in the mainland -- where they command a premium due largely to the country's strict capital controls -- steep falls in mainland-traded shares often trigger declines in Hong Kong.

The benchmark Hang Seng Index (.HSI: Quote, Profile, Research) hit a day low of 25,861.73, or less than 2 percent short of its 100-day moving average of about 25,400, which some view as the next downside target.

The index closed down 2.3 percent, or 613.27 points at 26,004.92, a two-month closing low. While it is about 19 percent off its all-time high set on Oct 30, the index has gained 30 percent in the year so far.

The China Enterprises index of H shares (.HSCE: Quote, Profile, Research), or Hong Kong-listed shares in mainland companies, fell 432.08 points to 15,561.42.

...

"It's a grey day today," said Howard Gorges, vice chairman of South China Brokerage. "People are on the defensive. With the end of the year coming, they're locking in profits."

Some say short positions, which have been building up quickly this week, also figured in the day's losses. "The market is controlled by short sellers now. They don't want the market to rebound," said Ernie Hon, strategist at ICEA Securities.

/..

[Ghost Dog]

120. Japan's Nikkei Rises as Investors Find Value in Bear Market

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=a60BZXsBLWeM&refer=japan

Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed after investors judged declines that suggest a bear market to be out of step with companies' profit outlook.

...

``Valuations are so low now that there's not much hope for making any money if you sell into this market,'' said Hiromichi Tsuyukubo, who helps look after about $800 million at Myojo Asset Management Japan Co. in Tokyo. ``It seems like investors with a long term perspective are taking the recent weakness as a chance to increase their holdings.''

The Nikkei rose 51.11, or 0.3 percent, to 14,888.77 in Tokyo today, reversing a drop of as much as 1.1 percent. The Topix index slipped 1.34, or 0.1 percent, to 1,437.38, paring a decline of as much as 1.5 percent.

For the week the Nikkei lost 1.8 percent and the Topix fell 2.3 percent. Both benchmarks dropped for a third week. Japan's market will be closed tomorrow for a holiday.

Automakers such as Honda Motor Co. retreated after a report showed home prices dropped in a third of U.S. cities, heightening concern the housing slump will slow consumer spending in the world's biggest economy.

...

Relative Strength

The Nikkei's 14-day relative strength index, a moving average based on whether shares rose or fell, was at 29.35 yesterday. An index level around 30 indicates to some technical analysts that the gauge is poised to climb.

The Topix fell 21 percent to yesterday's close since Feb. 26. The benchmark has lost 11 percent this month alone on concern that slower growth in the U.S. and a strengthening yen will reduce profits for Japan's export-dependent economy. A bear market is widely defined as a decline of 20 percent or more in a 12-month period.

Additionally, Japanese stocks were valued at 15.4 times estimated earnings, Goldman, Sachs & Co. wrote in a note last week, the lowest in 33 years.

Myojo's Tsuyukubo said the growth outlook for Japan remains intact as the economy now exports more to rapidly expanding Asian countries than it does to the U.S. Japan sells about a fifth of its export goods to the U.S., while almost half are sent to Asia.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

121. Japan's Topix Stock Index's Drop Signals Bear Market

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aNJtRZMKInTo&refer=japan

Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Japan became the first of the world's 10 biggest stock markets to enter a bear market since the summer's U.S. subprime-mortgage collapse after the Topix index declined 21 percent from its 2007 peak.

The 39-year-old Topix, the broadest gauge of equity prices in the world's second-largest economy, fell 0.1 percent today to 1,437.38, the lowest since October 2005, and down from this year's highest close of 1,816.97 on Feb. 26.

The benchmark has fallen 14 percent this year as companies struggle with slowing economic growth in the U.S., their largest export market. The yen's 6.2 percent rally against the dollar this month and record-high crude-oil prices threaten to stifle profit gains and the government's efforts to revive the economy from more than a decade of inconsistent expansion.

``Performance potential is limited by a deteriorating economic outlook, both foreign and domestic,'' said Florence Barjou, Paris-based strategist at Lyxor Asset Management, which oversees $100 billion.

The Bank of Japan on Oct. 31 cut its growth estimate for the year ending in March to 1.8 percent from 2.1 percent. Reflecting reduced expectations for economic expansion, the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds yesterday fell to a 23-month low of 1.439 percent.

The Topix is valued at 17.5 times earnings, half the average multiple for past four years. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index is trading at 17.7 times earnings, compared with an average of 19 times in the same period.

Less Than Stellar

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average, created in 1949, is just short of bear market territory. It rallied 0.3 percent today, after dropping to 14,837.66 yesterday, the lowest close since July 2006. It's now down 18.3 percent from a six-year high of 18,261.98, also on Feb. 26.

The Nikkei is a price-weighted average of 225 Japanese companies including Toyota Motor Corp, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. and NTT DoCoMo Inc. with a total market value of 313 trillion yen ($2.9 trillion). The Topix is a capitalization- weighted index of 1,719 companies with a total market value of 469.8 trillion yen.

...

The Topix decline ``would be an official bear market so to speak, but Japan hasn't been an area of stellar growth for 10 years,'' said Paul Hickey, managing partner at Bespoke Investment Group LLC in Harrison, New York.

A bear market is widely defined as a decline of 20 percent or more in a 12-month period. India was the last of the world's current 10 biggest markets to enter a bear market, when the Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, or Sensex, tumbled 29 percent between May 11 and June 14, 2006.

/..

[Ghost Dog]

122. Japan's Bonds Gain; Benchmark Yield Declines to Two-Year Low

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=axBqDJvGX5ng&refer=asia

Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese bonds rose, pushing the 10- year yield to the lowest in two years, as a global slump in corporate debt and equity markets prompted investors to buy government securities.

Japanese bonds followed a rally in Treasuries that sent U.S. 10-year note yields below 4 percent for the first time since 2005, after rating companies downgraded $34.8 billion of securities tied to U.S. mortgage bonds. Bank of Japan board member Seiji Nakamura said today ``downside risks'' to U.S. economic expansion are rising as the housing recession worsens. The risk of Japanese companies defaulting rose to a record, credit-default swaps indicated.

``The yen bond market is one of the safer places to put your money,'' said Yuuki Sakurai, general manager of financial and investment planning in Tokyo at Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance Co., which manages the equivalent of $41.5 billion in assets. ``It's not about price or yield anymore.''

The yield on the 1.7 percent bond due September 2017 fell half a basis point to 1.415 percent at 5:21 p.m. in Tokyo at Japan Bond Trading Co., the nation's largest interdealer debt broker. It fell as low as 1.395 percent, the least since Sept. 27, 2005. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. The price rose 0.044 to 102.455.

Benchmark bonds completed a four-week rally that has driven yields down by almost fifth of a percentage point on concern that global economic growth will slow as declining prices of U.S. subprime mortgage securities spread to other assets like corporate bonds and stocks.

U.S. Treasuries gave a total return of 2.76 percent so far this month and Japanese debt handed investors a 0.9 percent return, Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes showed yesterday. U.S. high- risk, high-yield notes lost 3.28 percent over the same period, according to a separate Merrill index.

Subprime Losses Spread

Losses from foreclosures on the home loans for people with poor credit histories, coupled with slowing economic growth and falling house prices, could reach as much as $300 billion, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said.

/..

[Ghost Dog]

128. Nikkei ends higher, reversing course as yen eases

http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUST26511220071122

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei average reversed course to end higher on Thursday, erasing earlier losses that took it to a fresh 16-month low, as the yen eased against the dollar.

Chugai Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (4519.T: Quote, Profile, Research) jumped after the company and its Swiss parent, drugmaker Roche (ROG.VX: Quote, Profile, Research), said they had submitted experimental Actemra drug to U.S. authorities for approval to treat moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis in adults.

Still, some market participants said the upswing was a technical rebound, and gains were also helped by closing of short positions ahead of a three-day weekend. The Tokyo market will be closed on Friday for a national holiday.

"There is always a brief stop to even torrential rain," said Zenshiro Mizuno, senior managing director at Marusan Securities, adding that technical signs had pointed to an imminent rebound.

"But it may start raining again at any moment. It doesn't mean the market has shook off problems. Subprime woes will linger."

The Nikkei (.N225: Quote, Profile, Research) ended up 0.3 percent at 14,888.77. During morning trade it hit a low of 14,669.85, the lowest since July 2006. For the week, the benchmark Nikkei fell 1.8 percent. The broader TOPIX (.TOPX: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 0.1 percent to 1,437.38, after earlier dipping to 1,417.47, its lowest since October 2005.

Trade was active, with 2.3 billion shares changing hands on the TSE's first section compared to last month's daily average 1.98 billion shares.

[Ghost Dog]

123. Oil price retreats below 98 dollars

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071122/ts_afp/commoditiesenergyoilasiaprice_071122070609

SINGAPORE (AFP) - Oil retreated below 98 US dollars in Asian trade Thursday after rising to within striking distance of the symbolic 100-dollar level.

Dealers said investors were taking a cautious stance to protect their positions since US financial markets were closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday.

In afternoon trade, New York's main contract, light sweet crude for January delivery, rose 31 cents to 97.60 dollars a barrel from 97.29 dollars in late US trades Wednesday.

The contract had spiked to a new peak of 99.29 dollars on Wednesday, within touch of 100 dollars, on continued concerns over tight global supplies, dealers said.

Brent North Sea crude for January delivery was 34 cents higher at 95.18 dollars a barrel. The contract had settled in London at 94.84 dollars on Thursday after jumping to an all-time pinnacle of 96.53 dollars per barrel.

David Moore, a commodity strategist with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said he had expected prices to rise after latest US government data showed a decline in the country's crude reserves. "I thought the inventory data would be supportive of the market," Moore said. "It may have been investors were cautious ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday."

The US Department of Energy (DoE) announced Wednesday that reserves of US crude oil had sunk by 1.1 million barrels in the week ending November 16. Analysts' consensus forecast had been for a gain of 750,000 barrels. The DoE added that US reserves of distillates, including crucial heating fuel and diesel, dived by 2.4 million barrels last week. That was far heavier than market expectations for a drop of 450,000 barrels.

Heating fuel demand is expected to pick up as the Northern hemisphere winter kicks in next month. The US northeast region is the world's biggest user of heating oil.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

124. Oil steady over $97 after drop on Cushing stockbuild

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071122/bs_nm/markets_oil_dc;_ylt=AmPotTPdz5GlualtccjhVSe573QA

SEOUL (Reuters) - Oil held firm above $97 a barrel on Thursday, after a big build in stocks at a key U.S. storage hub knocked prices off a record high near $100.

U.S. light crude for January delivery gained 25 cents to $97.54 a barrel by 1:27 a.m. EST. Oil ended 74 cents lower a day ago after the stockbuild coupled with growing pessimism over the U.S. economy cut down an early rally to a peak of $99.29.

NYMEX floor trading will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving holiday, although Globex electronic trade continues as normal.

London Brent crude rose 34 cents to $95.18 a barrel.

Crude stocks at the delivery point for U.S. crude futures in Cushing, Oklahoma, rose 1.2 million barrels to 14.6 million barrels last week, overshadowing an overall drawdown in U.S. crude stocks.

"The inventory increase at this key physical delivery point of the NYMEX crude oil contract obviously caught the market somewhat flat-footed, leading to the price pullback," First Energy Capital said in its daily market statement.

The U.S. government showed a larger-than-expected 2.4 million-barrel drop in distillate stocks, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, ahead of chilly winter in the U.S. northeast.

The sharp retreat from the intra-day peak came amid more bearish economic news from the United States, where consumer sentiment fell in November to the lowest in two years, underscoring fears of weaker oil demand.

Earlier in the day, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said $100 per barrel is a fair price for oil, as global crude prices approach triple digits.

Venezuela has consistently called for higher oil prices and tends to be more aggressive in seeking production cuts in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries than other members of the producer group.

Former Saudi Oil minister Ahmed Zaki Yamani said that oil could tumble as low as $75 a barrel if OPEC decided to raise output at its December 5 policy meeting and if the winter season is mild.

OPEC insists that the rise in oil prices is not caused by insufficient supply in the market, but due to other factors such as speculative trading and political tensions.

/.

[Ghost Dog]

126. European shares turn negative; miners, banks weigh

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINWEB925220071122?rpc=611

FRANKFURT, Nov 22 (Reuters) - European shares gave up earlier gains and turned negative in early trade on Thursday as credit and economic worries took hold again, dragging down financial and mining stocks.

By 0853 GMT, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index (.FTEU3: Quote, Profile, Research) was down 0.1 percent at 1,441.30 points, after it rose to 1,454.83 earlier in the session.

...

"The market still focuses on financial stocks," said Susanne Lahmann, strategist at Bremer Landesbank.

/..

[Ghost Dog]

127. German Economic Growth Accelerated on Spending

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=apvEsbvv5Mzc&refer=currency

Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- German companies and consumers increased spending in the third quarter, driving faster economic growth.

Consumer spending rose 0.5 percent from the second quarter and company investment increased 0.6 percent, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. The economy grew 0.7 percent in the third quarter after expanding 0.3 percent in the second, the office said, confirming an estimate published Nov. 14.

Germany is powering the euro region's expansion for a second year after companies increased capacity to fill booming export orders. Still, Europe's largest economy is showing signs of cooling after the collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market pushed up credit costs, the euro's surge made goods less competitive abroad and record oil prices boosted energy bills.

``The third quarter wasn't especially positive overall,'' said Andreas Scheuerle, an economist at Dekabank in Frankfurt. ``We expect growth of 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter, but it could be even less.''

Net trade damped economic expansion by 0.2 of a percentage point in the quarter as export growth of 3.1 percent was more than offset by a 3.9 percent increase in imports, the office said. The biggest contributors to growth were consumer spending, company investment, construction and rising inventories.

`Serious Cooling'

Tax breaks on investment in plant and machinery are prompting a ``last-minute rush to expand capacity,'' said Andreas Rees, chief Germany economist at UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking in Munich. ``That investment will be missing next year. Add to that the other headwinds the economy is facing and we'll see some serious cooling.''

The BDB banking association said yesterday it expects German growth to slow to 2 percent in 2008 from 2.5 percent this year.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

130. Pharmaceuticals lift European shares in early trade

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINL224768520071122?rpc=44
Thu Nov 22, 2007 5:33am EST

FRANKFURT, Nov 22 (Reuters) - European shares rose in choppy trade on Thursday as investors took refuge in defensive stocks such as pharmaceuticals as credit and economic worries lurked, dragging down financial and mining stocks.

Markets were looking for direction with U.S. markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, likely leading to thin volumes for the rest of the week.

Bucking the trend in an otherwise bleak financial sector, French bank Natixis (CNAT.PA: Quote, Profile, Research)jumped more than 12 percent after its two controlling shareholders said they would buy out its bond insurer CIFG.

By 1026 GMT, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index (.FTEU3: Quote, Profile, Research) was up 0.47 percent at 1,450.05 points in seesaw trading, having risen as much as 0.8 percent and fallen as much as 0.3 percent.

The benchmark index has fallen more than 11 percent since hitting a record high in July, as a credit crisis stemming from problems in the U.S. housing market took its toll. On Wednesday, the index recorded its worst daily slide since Aug. 16, just before the U.S. Federal Reserve cut its lending rate for banks to unfreeze the credit markets.

"Investors continue to be wary, fearing further writedowns from the U.S. subprime crisis," one trader said, adding that many had locked in profits on Wednesday ahead of the long weekend in the United States.

Another trader said: "It almost seems like we are pricing in a recession."

/...

[Ghost Dog]

133. Industrial new orders down by 1.6% in euro area

http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=STAT/07/159&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en
Industrial new orders down by 1.6% in euro area
Down by 2.1% in EU27

The euro area (EA13) industrial new orders index fell by 1.6% in September 2007 compared with August 2007. The index rose by 0.8% in August. EU27 new orders decreased by 2.1% in September 2007, after an increase of 1.0% in August. Excluding ships, railway & aerospace equipment industrial new orders dropped by 1.9% in the euro area and by 1.4% in the EU27 in September 2007.

In September 2007 compared with September 2006, industrial new orders increased by 2.0% in the euro area and by 4.2% in the EU27. Total industry excluding ships, railway & aerospace equipment grew by 2.8% in the euro area and by 5.5% in the EU27.

These estimates are released by Eurostat, the Statistical Office of the European Communities.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

135. Pharmas boost European shares, commods down

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=eurMktRpt&storyID=2007-11-22T164252Z_01_L22310793_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-EUROPE-STOCKS-CLOSED-URGENT.XML

LONDON, Nov 22 (Reuters) - European shares rose on Thursday, driven higher by pharmaceuticals after a broker upgrade of the sector, while flat commodity prices weighed on shares of mining and energy companies.

The FTSEurofirst 300 index <.FTEU3> of top European shares closed unofficially at 1,453.58 points, up 0.7 percent. The index fell by 2.5 percent on Wednesday, in its worst daily fall since credit markets seized up three months ago.

"We are due for a respite from this selling, we are due for a rebound and I sort of feel that with a bit of luck and a good wind, we could actually rebound a little bit more," said Brewin Dolphin chief strategist Mike Lenhoff.

Trading was light on Thursday, with U.S. markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. Traded volume on the FTSEurofirst 300 was two-thirds that traded on Wednesday.

In other European markets, London's FTSE 100 index .FTSE rose 1.3 percent, while Frankfurt's DAX <.GDAXI> gained 0.6 percent and Paris' CAC 40 <.FCHI> rose 0.7 percent.

/.

[Ghost Dog]

136. Airbus CEO says dollar slide "life-threatening"

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKL2226256520071122?rpc=44

FRANKFURT, Nov 22 (Reuters) - The weakness of the dollar is threatening the survival of European planemaker Airbus, its chief executive, Tom Enders, told employees in a speech in Hamburg on Thursday.

Workers at the firm, owned by European aerospace and defence group EADS (EAD.PA: Quote, Profile, Research), had to prepare for further major cost cuts to help counter the impact of the currency, he said, according to a spokesman for the company.

"The dollar's rapid decline is life-threatening for Airbus," Enders said in the speech. "The dollar exchange rate has gone beyond the pain barrier."

Airbus's entire business model had to be reviewed as "reasonable processes of adjustment" were hardly possible any more, he said, adding that management was looking at radical measures that would be introduced in coming weeks.

"There will be no more taboos," Enders said.

...

Airbus is already shedding about 10,000 jobs and selling plants as part of its Power8 restructuring plan after delays to its A380 superjumbo drove the planemaker into a loss last year. Airbus complains the weak dollar favours U.S. rival Boeing (BA.N: Quote, Profile, Research).

/..

[Ghost Dog]

131. Recalls, economy dampen spirits

CENTRAL OHIO POLL
Recalls, economy dampen spirits
Thursday, November 22, 2007 3:33 AM
By Darrel Rowland
THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH
http://www.dispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2007/11/22/POLL22.ART_ART_11-22-07_A1_DB8IA15.html?sid=101

Yes, 4 of every 10 of us will join the other crazed lemmings Friday in the annual ritual of materialistic excess at central Ohio stores.

But this year's traditional kickoff to the festive holiday shopping season is fraught with somber overtones, a new poll by Saperstein Associates for The Dispatch shows.

More than half of us -- including 60 percent with children younger than 6 -- will spend less on presents this year.

And when we pick out gifts, many of us will check more closely to see where they were made. If it comes from China -- source of so many products recalled in recent months -- nearly two-thirds of us have little confidence that it is safe.

Our big-picture, long-term outlook is not optimistic, either: Fewer than half think our kids will be better off than us -- a cruel reversal on a key tenet of the American dream.

/continues...

[Hugin]

134. Uh, anyone else notice the NASDAQ futures look like a trip through Monument Valley?

:scared:

[Ghost Dog]

137. Gulf liquidity offers glimmer of hope

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20071122/bs_ft/fto112220071213274823

Could Gulf investors be about to ride to the rescue of the US credit markets? Six months ago, that question might have seemed almost laughable. But as the oil price edges inexorably higher - and Western credit markets squirm in pain - the idea is now being quietly voiced behind the scenes at some Western financial groups.

After all, on one side of the world, an increasingly unpleasant liquidity crunch is taking hold. Just look at the stress emerging in the European covered bond sector and the American money markets - not to mention the continued freeze in the world of asset-backed structured credit.

But on the other side of the globe, liquidity is now so abundant that it seems to be growing on trees. Or, more precisely, gushing out of the ground in the form of $100-a-barrel oil, and abundant gas reserves.

So the question preoccupying some of the brightest minds in modern finance is whether there is any way to turn this contrast into a marriage of convenience? Could the $1,000bn-plus cash now swilling around Gulf Sovereign Wealth Funds, say, ever find its way into the subprime world?

Some Gulf financiers are certainly mulling the issue. Earlier this week, Omar bin Sulaiman, governor of the Dubai International Financial Centre, admitted to the FT - with unusual frankness - that teams in the region are "right now looking at opportunities" to grab distressed assets in Europe and the US.

Meanwhile, a flood of Western hedge funds and financial groups are furtively trekking out to the region, trying to raise funds. Some of these discussions have even produced tangible deals: a Dubai investment fund, for example, is now backing one bid for the troubled British lender, Northern Rock. But before such tentative financial flirtation can turn into any widespread matchmaking, at least three serious problems need to be overcome.

/continues...

Odd, how this writer doesn't mention 'Islamic Banking' and the Usury issue, huh?

[Ghost Dog]

138. Charting the end of the European stocks bull run

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=stocksNews&storyid=2007-11-22T110659Z_01_NOA239926_RTRUKOC_0_MARKETS-EUROPE-STOCKS.xml&WTmodLoc=InvArt-R5-QuotesBox-2

LONDON (Reuters) - Investors in European equities are wondering if this month's decline marks the beginning of the end of the four-year rally that has seen the market double in value, and technical charts suggest that may be the case.

The global liquidity squeeze sparked by defaults in the U.S. mortgage market has battered stocks around the world and raised questions over future corporate profitability, especially as the crisis comes at a time of record oil prices and high interest rates.

The broader European stock market, as measured by the FTSEurofirst 300 index <.FTEU3>, is on course for its first yearly decline in five years, led by financial stocks, which have borne the brunt of losses linked to the fallout from the U.S. subprime mortgage chaos.

Following a short-lived summer rally triggered by the U.S. Federal Reserve's campaign to revive the frozen credit markets, a chart of the FTSEurofirst reveals a near-complete head-and-shoulders pattern, believed to be one of the most reliable presages of a turning point.

The pattern is formed by three successive peaks interspersed with troughs that do not break below a shared "neckline".

Yet this phenomenon is not limited to stocks. A similar pattern is emerging on key currency charts, such as the New Zealand dollar and the Japanese yen -- one of the best reflections of the carry trade, where investors have borrowed low-yielding currencies to buy high-yielding assets.

"All European stock indices, all yen crosses ... have all got similar patterns; they've tried three times over the summer to trade higher and failed," said Nicole Elliott, technical analyst at Mizuho Corporate Bank.

"Suddenly, people are realising there is no money around, let alone cheap money. End of story. So any instrument that needs oodles and endless supply of cheap money cannot go higher because there is no money around," she said.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

139. The dollar: Time to break free (The Economist)

http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10177927
Nov 22nd 2007
From The Economist print edition
LEADER: The Middle East's oil exporters should end their currencies' peg to the dollar.
(see article).

IN THE past week Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has damned it as a “worthless piece of paper” and China's premier, Wen Jiabao, has moaned that it is causing his country “big pressure”. The dollar's relentless decline—it hit a new low of $1.49 against the euro on November 21st—is prompting jibes from America's critics, jangling investors' nerves and giving policymakers headaches.

Nowhere are the dilemmas more acute than in the Gulf, where virtually all the oil-rich states peg their currencies to the greenback. The combination of soaring oil prices and the tumbling dollar is distorting their economies and fuelling inflation. When the Gulf states meet on December 3rd in Qatar, they should agree to loosen their ties to the dollar.

The argument for linking to the greenback was to provide an anchor for the region's economies, many of which are small, open and financially immature. In effect, the Gulf states import America's monetary policy. The trouble is that a fixed currency makes it hard for oil exporters to adjust to swings in the price of oil. And monetary policy in the world's largest oil-importer is not always right for those who sell the stuff.

Soaring oil prices have brought the Gulf Arabs huge riches. Their real exchange rates, as a result, ought to rise. The simplest way to do that is for the currency to strengthen, but the peg prevents nominal appreciation. Worse, the dollar itself has been falling. The result is rising domestic inflation. Some smaller Gulf economies now have inflation rates of around 10%.

What is to be done? The two most widely discussed options are to revalue or to shift to a currency basket (which Kuwait has already done). By repegging their currencies to the dollar at a higher rate, the Gulf states would alleviate some of today's inflationary pressure. But they would not address the underlying mismatch between any oil exporter and a dollar peg. Switching the peg to a basket of currencies that included, say, the euro and yen as well would give the Gulf states a bit more protection against oil-price swings, but it is hardly a perfect fit. Since most big currencies belong to oil importers, the Gulf States would still be linking their currencies to monetary conditions that may not suit them.

...

A big uncertainty is what such a shift would mean for the dollar. In the short term, the effect on the Gulf states' appetite for greenbacks would not be dramatic, since the dollar would have a big weight in any basket. And there should not be a sudden sale of the oil exporters' dollar reserves. The worry is that the end of the Gulf states' dollar peg would send jittery investors into a panic. That risk is real. But with oil prices rising and the dollar falling, the dangers of inaction are greater. The Gulf states need to get rid of their dollar peg now.

/...

[harun]

148. The oil exporters may have to get paid in goods (Gold, Sugar, Salt,

Cotton, Leather, etc.)

[Ghost Dog]

140. Business and the credit crunch: At the gates of hell (The Economist)

http://www.economist.com/business/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10181281
Nov 22nd 2007 | NEW YORK
From The Economist print edition
Banks and brokers are having a terrible time. Now the misery is spreading

NAMING yourself after the three-headed dog that guards the gates to hell was, perhaps, asking for trouble. Cerberus, the private-equity beast in question, now finds itself at the centre of a fierce debate about whether corporate America is in for a hellish time, as the credit crisis spreads from financial services to the rest of the economy.

Only months ago Cerberus was praised as the saviour of the American car industry when it bought Chrysler from its German owner and struck a remarkable deal with the unions to cut jobs and benefits. But on November 20th it emerged that Cerberus's bankers had abandoned efforts to sell $4 billion of the debt it took on when it bought Chrysler. Investors turned up their noses even when offered a 3% discount.

Cerberus has also been hit by growing problems at GMAC, the financing arm of General Motors, in which it bought a 51% stake for $14 billion last year. GMAC reported a net loss of $1.6 billion for the third quarter, up from a loss of $173m in the same period last year.

More controversially, on November 14th Cerberus pulled out of a $4 billion deal to buy United Rentals, a power-tool rental firm. This provoked so much criticism that the famously secretive private-equity firm broke its vow of silence, telling the Wall Street Journal that the attacks on its credibility and integrity were “unfounded” and that it still has “more than $10 billion of available liquidity”.

...

But how, exactly? Were the cancelled deals so marginal, and so dependent on cheap credit, that a relatively small rise in the cost of debt ruined them? Did Cerberus conclude that prospects for the American economy are now too bad to go ahead with the United Rentals deal? Does it see better uses for its capital elsewhere, in distressed debt, say? Is that $10 billion of liquidity really available? And is it really true that as goes Cerberus, so goes the rest of private equity, and the rest of business?

/... plenty more ...

[Ghost Dog]

141. USDIndex: 74.705 right now: sudden decline

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

[jdog]

142. WOW! N/T

[Mojorabbit]

143. Holy moley

Tomorrow should be interesting. Thanks for holding down the fort Ghost Dog.

[UpInArms]

144. sumbitch - this is getting scary

Last trade 74.617 Change -0.405 (-0.54%)

Settle Time 10:02 Open 75.021

Previous Close 74.983 High 75.033

Low 74.484 2007-11-22 23:31:26, 30 min delay

[UpInArms]

145. While you were eating: Fed has biggest day of injections since Sept 2001 ($41 billion)

I thought they just used this headline last week :shrug:

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0141922220071101

NEW YORK, Nov 1 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve added a total of $41 billion in temporary reserves to the banking system on Thursday, the biggest single day of such injections since September 2001.

The Fed's infusions may reflect the central bank's efforts to bring the federal funds rate down nearer to its target just one day after a widely expected rate cut.

Fed funds last traded at 4.625 percent on the open market, above the Fed's target rate of 4.50 percent.

A Fed spokesman would not comment on the total size of the operations, but did say it was the largest single day of operations since a total of $50.35 billion was injected on Sept. 19, 2001, following the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the World Trade Center.

On Thursday, the central bank conducted $8 billion of 14-day repurchases, $21 billion of seven-day repurchases and $12 billion of overnight repurchase agreements.

The total on Thursday surpassed the $38 billion the Fed injected on Aug. 10, which was generally seen as the beginning of a global credit crisis. At the time, the Fed and the European Central Bank ramped up temporary liquidity operations with the intent of alleviating strains in short-term lending markets.

...more...

I'm thinking that this much liquidity leads to diarhhea :crazy:

[kickysnana]

146. Wrong thread. deleted. n/t

[Name removed]

147. Deleted message

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