Clouds Hang Over Recovery

[rumguy]

"Consumer confidence, home sales and Midwestern manufacturing all slipped below economists' expectations in reports released today, amidst persistent concerns over the labor market and worries that the economy's recent robust gains may be easing.

Sales of existing single-family homes dropped in November by 4.6 percent from October's level and were off even more from the record level set two months earlier, the National Association of Realtors reported. Midwestern manufacturing continued its expansion this month, but at a slower pace than November's, according to the National Association of Purchasing Managers' Chicago office.

And consumer confidence backed off its recent surge, as more Americans expressed anxieties over business conditions and the availability of jobs, said the Conference Board, a private research group in New York."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A41377-2003Dec30.html

[xchrom]

1. can i get a show of hands

by anyone here surprised by this news?
hmmm -- i thought not.

[kalian]

2. Its kinda tough to hide reality....no?

:eyes:

[neverforget]

3. The economy sucks. Just wait until this catches up to Wall Street

and it tumbles again. All those with 401k's, me included, are going to suffer again.....:-( Time for a new investment.....

[kainah]

5. Yes, I suspect they've propped up the stock market

to lure back the little investor so that they can rape him again. I've been watching the Dow for months now, watching simply to see if I could predict a closing based on the next "benchmark." i.e., if it's falling & it's near 9500, can they keep it above 9500? The answer, consistently, has been yes. It's been amazing how many times in the last 4 months I've seen it make a rally in the last 30-60 minutes to manage to maintain some "benchmark." There was a post on DU talking about market manipulation that got me interested in this & I've been pretty amazed at what I've seen. It's made me even more skeptical than I was before. We pulled our meager dollars out of the stock market about 2 years ago but they seem totally intent on keeping interest rates artificially suppressed so that there is no way the average investor thinks he can afford to stay out of the market. I figure it's better not to make any money than to put your money out there free for their stealing.

[koopie57]

6. We did the same thing and it is much

easier to sleep at night. Every once in awhile it is tempting to go back in, but I remember when I saw 1/2 of the money it took us 20 years to accumulate pissed away. It is hard to listen to people talking about how their investments started to rise and telling us we better get back in, but so long as this goofy group are in the white house I will sit tight.

[54anickel]

9. Same here. Rolled over my 401K into an IRA after I lost my job.

Put some in a fixed guaranteed rate the rest is sitting on the sidelines in a MM account. I worked too damned long and hard to build that up. I made up most of my previous losses in the last year before loosing my job (most of mine was pretty conservative so didn't loose as much).
Still can't believe it was able to come back, as bad as the economy was, but certainly glad it did.

[Garion_55]

7. Could this be another bubble???

I have been wondering this the last couple of weeks. Remember what happened with the dot com bust. People pumping tons of money into businesses that were not making money.

All we have been hearing ever since the third quarter GDP was released was how great the economy is now. Its booming. Best in 20 years. yadda.

First i dont believe it. i believe that it is like an 80 year old guy (the economy), who has problems getting it up, taking some viagra (tax cuts). Bam!! Everything is working again. Alright!! BAck in the saddle again!! yee haw!!

Then the viagra wears off and you are stuck with an 80 year old guy who still has problems getting it up but now he is completely drained of energy.

AS long as the networks hail the third quarter GDP (and they are still doing it), downplay the negatives, convince people that everything is ok, people are going to respond like it is.

My guess is that reality will set the of spring next year. Fourth quarter GDP will probably be 3-4 at best. Christmas sales will come back weak. Job losses will start to creep up again.

I see no reason for the Dow to be as high as it is right now except for optimism based on the news lately. I think people are getting suckered and its gonna come crashing back down a couple thousand points when its all said and done.



Bush had a good couple of months. We can give him that. He was bound to have at least that based on the odds. Thats gonna be ancient history in a not too distant future. We can just be thankfull that these last couple of months didnt happen next year.

[WannaJumpMyScooter]

10. As my late Uncle, the stock maven always said to me...

The stock market is just like a horse race.
The only difference is at a horse race, you know one of the horses is going to win.

[54anickel]

4. Recovery? Huh? Am I missing something?

[Zech Marquis]

8. we had a recovery?

I must have passed right by it in the hallway :eyes:

[twilight]

11. yeah some recovery alright

No jobs
No health care
No more great deals on home loans
Interest rates at 1% to lure investors back into the "market" or whatever the hell you want to call it! :puke: :puke: :puke:

I think I'll keep my money in the bank where it is drawing at least SOME interest, albeit not much.

I would not consider investing in this chaotic mess again until things change dramatically and we have the truth!

OUT THE DOOR IN '04!



:dem: :kick: