STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday February 20

[ozymandius]

Tuesday February 20, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 699LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2248 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1952 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1912
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 9
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON February 16, 2007

Dow... 12,767.57 +2.56 (+0.02%)
Nasdaq... 2,496.31 -0.79 (-0.03%)
S&P 500... 1,455.54 -1.27 (-0.09%)
Gold future... 672.80 +1.40 (+0.21%)
30-Year Bond 4.79% -0.02 (-0.33%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.69% -0.02 (-0.34%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [email protected]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Market WrapUp

Davos and Goliath
BY BRIAN PRETTI

To suggest that the always-growing financial derivatives complex has been the focal point of relatively intense debate over the last decade or so is one huge understatement. On one side of the issue stand the practitioners (those reaping huge fees, of course) claiming that derivatives have changed the financial market landscape for the better as their growing use has helped achieve the nirvana state of accelerated financial risk distribution. Academically, the greater the distribution of financial risk, the lower the chances of macro systemic risk. As you know, Sir Greenspan can be counted on this side of the sentiment ledger. On the other side of the debate stand those such as Buffet who either calmly claim that the interrelationships of risk are not well understood and ultimately present real and meaningful risk, or it’s the ever fun loving members of the hard core bearish underground suggesting a derivatives related end of the world as we know it is probably just around the corner. To see who’s ultimately going to be the fortune telling victor in this great debate, we only need to stick around to find out. But so far, it’s been one long wait, as the financial derivatives mushroom cloud only grows larger.

Interestingly, financial derivatives became the focal point of controversy this year at the Davos confab -- Davos, of course, being the annual watering hole of some of the world’s most important movers and shakers, and those who are the world’s most important mover and shaker wannabe’s. From the real world of central bankers and foreign government officials came words expressing warnings regarding the need to understand risk in the derivatives complex, which implicitly they believe is not happening. Zhu Min, Bank of China VP, chimed in, “You can easily get liquidity from the market every second for anything. We really don't know what the risks are.'' Jean-Claude Trichet, Euro Central Bank President, suggested, “Investors may not be accurately assessing risk.” Montek Singh Ahluwalia, deputy chief of India's planning commission, said “Derivatives demand is a problem because people don't have much experience with the instruments in declining markets.”

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Neither for right or for wrong, we live in a world of financial securitization. This has been a major theme for well over a decade now. And as securitization as a concept and theme has grown, so too has it helped spawn an environment of excessive liquidity. This is exactly why looking at the derivatives data is so important in that it gives us a sense for both magnitude and ongoing growth. In terms of the greater credit cycle, the need to continually grow at faster rates is paramount. For without this we risk entering an environment of liquidity contracting on a rate of change basis. And that would be death to ongoing asset inflation, to say nothing of some pretty bad unintended consequences in terms of financial/derivatives markets. Will we ultimately experience a big problem in the greater derivatives markets at some point? It's probably a good bet. We’ve been there before if you can remember back to LTCM. But when and how big a potential problem is unknown. No sense in guessing. But what is important, especially in the current data, is recognizing and remembering just how fast risk needs to expand to keep the credit cycle moving ever forward. The data below really says it all.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Oil prices rise to near $59 a barrel

SINGAPORE - Oil prices rose Tuesday on news of a weekend fire that caused the shutdown of a U.S. refinery and the kidnapping of three Eastern European oil workers in Nigeria's troubled southern region.

The March contract for light, sweet crude, which was to expire later Tuesday, gained 19 cents to $58.72 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange mid-afternoon in Singapore.

Floor trading on the Nymex was closed Monday for the Presidents' Day holiday in the United States, but electronic trading continued. There was no price settlement Monday.

-cut-

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

3. Oil bounces after fall, U.S. cold spell eases

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices ticked higher on Tuesday after dropping 1 percent a day earlier as traders were torn between supply anxieties in Nigeria and the looming end of winter oil demand in top consumer the United States.

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Although warnings of fresh violence in the Niger Delta have raised new fears over crude supplies from Africa's top producer, dealers said the approaching end of peak demand in the northern hemisphere was tempering any move higher.

"The cold in the U.S. Northeast, which had been supporting prices, is looking to ease this week," said Ken Hasegawa, manager at commodities futures broker Himawari CX in Tokyo.

-cut-

And temperatures will remain warmer than usual in most of the United States through March, capping an overall mild winter, private forecaster WSI Corp. said on Monday.

more

[ozymandius]

4. Volvo offers $1B for Nissan Diesel

TOKYO - Swedish truck maker AB Volvo made a $1.07 billion offer Tuesday to take over Japan's Nissan Diesel in a strategic move aimed at gaining a solid presence in Asia.

The move, which would give Volvo full ownership of Nissan Diesel from the current 19 percent, highlights Volvo's ambitions in Asia, where the company has lacked a local brand while owning Mack Trucks in the U.S. and Renault Trucks in Europe.

Volvo is the world's second-largest truck maker after DaimlerChrysler AG of Germany, while Nissan Diesel is Japan's fourth-largest truck maker.

Volvo said it estimates Nissan Diesel's net interest-bearing debt at $1.07 billion, bringing the total cost of its planned acquisition of the Japanese truck maker to 15 billion kronor, or $2.14 billion.

more

[54anickel]

30. Speculation runs high on who'll get Chrysler

http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/business/16736729.htm

Newspaper reports indicate an interest from Nissan or Renault. Even General Motors is mentioned.
By Matt Moore
Associated Press
FRANKFURT, Germany - With DaimlerChrysler AG putting all options on the table for its struggling U.S. unit, the auto industry is pondering the fate of Chrysler and whether its parent will jettison a brand that critics say has dulled the sheen of the legendary Mercedes marquee.

Speculation about potential partners, or even a buyer, jumping in to use Chrysler's expansive parts and dealership network to gain entry to the U.S. market has ranged from a tie-up with Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. and Renault S.A. to talk of a link with Hyundai Motor Co. to a homegrown deal with General Motors Corp.

The possibilities have driven DaimlerChrysler shares up 12 percent since it first said it was mulling all options for the Chrysler Group. Shares yesterday gained almost 4 percent to 56.26 euros, or $73.88, in German trading, their highest level since July 2001.

DaimlerChrysler has kept mum since announcing last week that it had not ruled out any options for Chrysler - which, until a year ago, had kept the world's fifth-largest automaker profitable amid quality issues at the Mercedes Car Group.

But a failure to discern U.S. consumers' changing tastes for more fuel-efficient models instead of light trucks led the German-American automaker to announce plans to eliminate 13,000 jobs in the United States and Canada, or about 16 percent of its workforce, and shutter a plant in Newark, Del., in a bid to shave costs.

more...

[ozymandius]

5. Hurdles loom for XM, Sirius combination

NEW YORK - XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. and Sirius Satellite Radio Inc., rivals in the fledgling satellite radio industry, have agreed to combine in a deal that investors hope will result in lower costs, assuming it overcomes significant regulatory hurdles.

The companies billed the deal announced Monday as a merger of equals, with shareholders of both companies owning approximately 50 percent of the combined entity. However, Sirius will be giving $4.57 billion of its stock to XM shareholders, a substantial premium to the value of their shares.

Sirius' Chief Executive Mel Karmazin will lead the combined company, and XM's CEO Hugh Panero will stay on only until the deal is closed. XM Chairman Gary Parsons will remain in that role.

-cut-

A combination would also have to meet antitrust approval from the Department of Justice. The companies are expected to argue that they compete not only with each other but also with traditional radio and a growing base of digital audio sources such as iPods, mobile phones and non-satellite digital radio.

more

[ozymandius]

6. Wal-Mart profit rises

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE:WMT - news) on Tuesday posted higher quarterly profit after the world's biggest retailer cut prices on hot items like toys and electronics to lure customers during the holiday shopping season.

Net income rose to $3.94 billion, or 95 cents per share, in the fourth quarter that ended on January 31, compared with $3.59 billion or 86 cents per share a year ago.

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Analysts on average had been expecting profit of 90 cents per share, according to Reuters Estimates.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070220/bs_nm/walmart_results_dc

[54anickel]

33. From last week - Is the world's biggest retailer in trouble?

http://www.economist.com/business/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8714420

FOR the first time in its 45-year history Wal-Mart is uncertain what it should be. The company's obsessive focus on low prices created the world's biggest retailer, its largest private employer and one of the most powerful companies in history. But Wal-Mart is not doing so well just now: sales growth is slowing, productivity and profits are falling. The giant retailer is constantly under fire for its pay, health care and treatment of women and for the effect of its “supercentres” on small businesses. Some even scoff at the store's efforts to spruce up its image.

All of this has prompted doubts about the company's strategy. Is the single-minded emphasis on low prices enough? Has the firm's careening growth reached its limits? Have its competitors become leaner than it has? Should Wal-Mart imitate Target, its nearest rival, with its trendier image, smarter shops and more upmarket merchandise?

In 2005 Lee Scott, Wal-Mart's chief executive, embarked on an energetic campaign to revive the company's image. He put Eduardo Castro-Wright, who had transformed Wal-Mart's local subsidiary into Mexico's most popular retailer, in charge of overhauling operations in America. Last year Mr Castro-Wright remodelled 1,300 shops, modified the firm's merchandise and cut prices keenly even by Wal-Mart's standards. But sales did not pick up, even in the second half of the year, when oil prices came down and people stopped fretting about how far they were driving to go shopping.

Recent months have been marked by public-relations mishaps. Wal-Mart first made headlines by sacking Julie Roehm, a marketing executive whose sybaritic tastes were at odds with the company's Spartan corporate culture. In January Mrs Roehm filed a lawsuit against the retailer claiming Wal-Mart had breached her contract and smeared her in the press. Then on February 6th judges in San Francisco approved a class-action lawsuit involving up to 2m past and present Wal-Mart employees. It claims that the company systematically steered women into jobs with little hope of promotion and paid them less than men. Wal-Mart says women are paid fairly and that there are fewer of them in senior positions because they do not apply as often for promotion. If necessary, it says, it will appeal to the Supreme Court.

Investors are unhappy and there is even talk that Mr Scott's job may be in jeopardy. “We had believed that we were farther along the Wal-Mart turnaround timeline,” says Adrianne Shapira, an analyst at Goldman Sachs, an American investment bank, who downgraded her advice for investors on Wal-Mart from “buy” to “neutral” at the beginning of the year. One gripe is Wal-Mart's unslakeable thirst for growth. It has 4,022 shops in America. More than half of all Americans live within a ten-minute drive of one of its stores. Each year 93% of American households shop at Wal-Mart at least once. Yet Wal-Mart continues to open stores at the same pace despite this saturation. That leaves new shops cannibalising sales at old ones and falling sales per square foot.

more...

[ozymandius]

7. Home Depot profit falls

ATLANTA (Reuters) - Home Depot Inc. (NYSE:HD - news) posted a 28 percent drop in fourth quarter profit on Tuesday as the weak U.S. housing market depressed sales at its retail stores.

The retailer, which last month named Frank Blake chairman and chief executive after Robert Nardelli resigned, said it would give its financial outlook for the year at its February 28 analyst meeting.

Earnings in the fourth quarter ended January 28 fell to $925 million, or 46 cents a share, from $1.3 billion, or 60 cents a share, a year earlier.

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Sales at Home Depot Supply, which distributes building materials and other products to professionals, rose 64 percent to $2.9 billion, helped by acquisitions.

more

[ozymandius]

8. Wall Street seen little changed, Wal-Mart eyed

LONDON (Reuters) - Shares on Wall Street are expected to open flat to slightly lower on Tuesday, with investors eyeing results from Wal-Mart Stores Inc (NYSE:WMT - news) and Hewlett-Packard Co (NYSE:HPQ - news) for cues after a long weekend.

By 1020 GMT, U.S. stock futures were pointing to opening dips of between 0.01 and 0.03 percent for the three main indexes.

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"We're two to three weeks away from some sort of topping out process," said Steve Previs at Jefferies International.

"Anybody who's been long since July should take money off the table. It reminds me of the old saying: bulls make money, bears make money, chickens sit on the sideline and cluck. It's the pigs that get slaughtered."

more

[ozymandius]

9. Bridgestone reports drop in profit

TOKYO - Japanese tire maker Bridgestone Corp. said Tuesday that full-year profit dropped by more than half last year due to higher prices for rubber, crude oil and other raw materials.

Net income totaled 85.1 billion yen ($709.17 million) in the 12 months ended Dec. 31, compared with 180.7 billion yen in profit a year earlier, the company said in a statement.

Sales at the world's second-biggest tire maker by volume after France's Michelin SA rose to 2.991 trillion yen ($24.9 billion).

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The company said during the period it posted an extraordinary loss of 21.7 billion yen ($180.8 million) in connection with the closures of two tire plants in the United States.

more

[ozymandius]

10. Plans to resume all JetBlue flights today after service meltdown

JetBlue Airways Corp., which canceled more than 450 flights over the past three days after Wednesday's ice and snow storm, said all of its service will be restored today.

The beleaguered carrier also will announce details of a customer bill of rights as it tries to repair its reputation as one of the most popular airlines among travelers.

JetBlue, the top carrier at John F. Kennedy International Airport and a major player in the Florida market at Newark, canceled more than 20 percent of its flights Monday as the customer-service fiasco continued to ripple.

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The airline is scrambling to restore the allegiance of its customers in the New York metropolitan area, an allegiance earned by providing reliable service at discounted prices, TV screens on the back of each passenger's seat and serving blue potato chips. But JetBlue might have grown too fast, and now it is begging its customers for forgiveness for the customer-service flameout.

more

[UpInArms]

11. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 84.17 Change +0.13 (+0.15%)

Yen Above 120 as Market Ignores BOJ

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_brief/Yen_Above_120_as_Market_1171971853723.html

With capital markets in Far East back to work after the Lunar New Year holidays, traders wasted little time selling USDJPY from the start ofAsia trade, despite the increasing odds of a BOJ rate hike tomorrow night. Buoyed by demand from Japanese retail accounts the yen dropped against both the dollar and the euro trading above 120 on USDJPY and 158 on EURJPY. The prospect of a 25bp rate hike by the BOJ does not appear to concern the majority of market participants as most speculators believe that Japanese central bank will move right back to the sidelines for a considerable amount of time even it does tighten monetary policy one more time.

In fact, tonight’s weakness in the yen suggested that many players were betting on BOJ remaining stationary at 25bp. Seeing this price action, Japanese monetary authorities clearly have to recognize the fact that they have lost total respect and control of the currency market. That reality in turn may prompt them to assume a more hawkish posture than the markets expect. Therefore, yen shorts could be vulnerable if BoJ decides to both raise rates and signals that it may begin the process of normalization in earnest. As we noted yesterday, “The impact of the rate hike will not be as benign on the carry trade as many yen shorts surmise. The tightening of liquidity, should the BoJ hike rates will be felt globally, especially by the myriad of speculators who have borrowed yen to finance trades in other markets such as commodities. Therefore, the BoJ move limited as it may be, could still provide the trigger for further carry trade liquidation “

If on the other hand, BOJ remains cautious and passive, the carry traders will assume full control of the market fearing no further action from the bank until the completion of Japanese elections in June and the pair will likely rally to 122.00 to test its recent highs.

...more...

US Dollar Will Struggle to Rally This Week

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/US_Dollar_Will_Struggle_to_1171918351543.html

US Dollar- With the US markets closed for Presidents’ Day and many Asian markets closed for the Lunar New Year, trading has been extremely quiet in the foreign exchange market. News from Japan, the UK and the Eurozone have been driving the dollar’s fluctuations and we expect this to continue for the remainder of the week since consumer prices is the only piece of notable US economic data on the calendar. The global trend of inflation has been lower and because of that, consumer price growth in the US should slow in the month of January. The producer price report released last week has exhibited weakness which suggests that CPI has a far greater likelihood of surprising to the downside as well. The lack of US data aside from CPI should support further gains in the Euro. The Federal Reserve’s wait and see attitude comes in stark contrast to the European Central Bank’s clear and vocal plans to raise interest rates next month. This dynamic has narrowed the spread between the December 2007 Eurodollar (US) and Euribor (Eurozone) interest rates by 9 basis points over the past week. The recent disappointments in US data including last week’s Philly Fed survey, jobless claims, housing starts, consumer confidence and producer prices have pushed out expectations for an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve from the first quarter of this year to the second or third quarter at the earliest.

...more...

[54anickel]

21. Treasuries Lose `Masters of Universe' as Volatility Dwindles

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=axP8wj0pdIPI&refer=us

Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- The market that once told every other market what to do, also known as U.S. government securities, is so dull these days that the world's biggest banks are losing interest and bowing out.

``Low volatility makes it very hard to generate any income,'' said E. Craig Coats, who was co-head of fixed-income at Salomon Brothers in the 1980s, when it was the world's biggest bond trader.

That's why the firms that underwrite U.S. government debt may fall to the fewest in 36 years as profits from trading Treasuries decline along with price swings in the bonds. ``You have to generate your income by doing massive amounts of volume,'' said Coats, who was among the elite at Salomon, a firm whose influence was caricatured in Tom Wolfe's ``Bonfire of the Vanities.''

CIBC World Markets Corp. gave up its so-called primary dealer franchise this month, reducing the number of firms that can buy and sell government securities directly with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to 21. There haven't been fewer since 1971. The group is down from a high of 46 in 1988.

more...

[54anickel]

58. Use caution chasing foreign stocks’ big payoff

http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070220/BUSINESS/202200307/-1/YOUTH

WASHINGTON – Six years ago, only about 8 cents of every new dollar flowing into U.S. stock funds was invested overseas. Silicon Valley and its microchip-studded stocks were the hot destination. Now, that number is hovering around 77 cents, as American investors look longingly at soaring returns in international markets.

Newcomers, such as retired Janet Laytham, who last fall put 1 percent of her assets into a Chinese index fund that had a 26 percent gain in three months, are adding to the rush.

“This is just mad money,” said Laytham, who keeps most of her holdings in U.S. Treasury securities.

Many international stock indexes have outperformed their U.S. counterparts in the past few years. That’s drawing more American investors who are seeking bigger gains and more asset diversification, and taking on more risk to get them.

“There’s so many global leaders based outside of the U.S., it seems more and more . . . that limiting yourself simply to the U.S. doesn’t make much sense,” said Gregg Wolper, a senior fund analyst with Morningstar. Rising interest rates in Europe, the growth rate of developing countries and the fact that they are heavy on the hot commodities sector have also fueled the trend, he said.

snip>

Last year, international funds had average returns of 26 percent, compared with 12 percent for domestic funds, according to Lipper, which tracks the performance of mutual funds. Funds that invest in emerging markets had gains of 32 percent. Gains have been even more dramatic in rapidly growing countries such as Brazil, Russia, India and China.

more...

[54anickel]

35. BoJ to meet on interest rates amid easing political heat

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070220/ts_afp/japaneconomybankratemoney_070220014316;_ylt=AmoeTICaJPjsOrZnkBOEZDimOrgF

snip>

The BoJ's decision in January to leave interest rates unchanged -- despite earlier expectations it would raise them -- triggered strong criticism among investors and the media that the central bank's independence was under threat.

This month there has been less overt political pressure on the BoJ although the government has hinted it would prefer to see rates kept low for now.

"Monetary policies are the exclusive matter of the Bank of Japan," Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told reporters on the eve of the meeting.

"I think it will make an appropriate decision, comprehensively considering prices, the economic situation and risks," added Abe, who had last month urged BoJ policymakers "to support the economy with their monetary policies."

Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Hiroko Ota called on the central bank last week to continue "to support the economy," but overall the ruling party and the government have toned down their rhetoric compared with last month.

"It is true government pressure has been muted this time," said Kosuke Hanao, head of forex sales at HSBC in Tokyo.

"They're giving the green-light this time and it is a factor boosting the chances" of a rate hike, he added.

more...

[54anickel]

38. Central Banks Face Rising Pressure From Politicians (Update2)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aGMYY0WhtTtg&refer=home

Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) -- When politicians tried to pressure former European Central Bank President Wim Duisenberg, he used to say: ``I hear, but I do not listen.'' These days, a growing number of central bankers worldwide are hearing a lot -- and some are listening.

The Bank of Japan refrained from raising interest rates last month in the wake of government pressure. The autonomy of banks from Ecuador to India is under attack. French presidential candidates are demanding the ECB meet a goal for growth.

``Political pressure is definitely intensifying,'' says Stephen Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley in New York.

The central bankers under the gun have already helped deliver the strongest global expansion in 30 years and kept a lid on prices. If they wind up running ``politically compromised monetary policies,'' Roach predicts, ``ultimately, you'll get more inflation.''

While lobbying central banks is one thing, meddling is another, says former Fed Governor Laurence Meyer. ``The danger here is to inflation expectations,'' says Meyer, Washington- based vice chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers LLC. ``Market participants will have less confidence in central-bank independence in the face of political pressure.''

The Bank of Japan's standing has already suffered in financial markets after Governor Toshihiko Fukui and fellow policy makers unexpectedly left the benchmark rate unchanged at 0.25 percent last month. That came after Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki and other officials said the bank should consider the government's view when setting rates.

snip>

Democratic Hostility

``It's possible that Democratic hostility to inflation targets will cause Bernanke to put the goal of an inflation target on hold,'' he says.

more...

[54anickel]

36. BoE says environment for inflation likely to become less benign

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=b9645674-30f0-4b94-bee0-7e3d81c0da67

LONDON (AFX) - The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee said some of the factors that have kept inflation in check over the past 10 years may be eroding.
Cheaper imports, globalisation and increased labour supply, due partly to inward migration, have all helped dampen inflation, it said in a written submission to the the parliamentary Treasury Committee.

But the status-quo is not likely to remain. "The environment is unlikely to be so benign in the future," the central bank said.
"Many of the benefits of globalisation have already worked through, and the adverse impact on commodity prices of the development of China and India is now being felt," it said.

The globalisation process over the past decade has reduced inflationary pressures and helped boost growth, providing a "beneficial tailwind" to the work of the MPC, but these effects will only be temporary, the MPC warned.

The emergence of low-cost producers in countries such as China has led to a rise in the price of UK exports relative to that of its imports, increasing the real purchasing power of employees' wages.

"Such a terms-of-trade improvement ... allows the economy to grow a little faster for the same inflation rate, or else for inflation to fall without requiring growth to dip," the report said.

This bonus is likely to be temporary, however, because workers' wage aspirations will gradually rise and as emerging economies begin to catch up with their developed economy counterparts.

Additionally, the labour force is unlikely to grow as rapidly as it has done over the past 10 years or so. Some aspects of the global economy look unsustainable, particularly the pattern of global current account imbalances and the low level of real interest rates and the high degree of risk-taking, the central bank added.

more...

[54anickel]

39. U.S. Treasuries Drop; Fed Speakers May Hint at Rate Increase

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=aKJfM0BYGlco&refer=bond

Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries fell on concern Federal Reserve officials speaking this week will say they are open to raising interest rates.

Three days of gains came to a halt as Fed Governors Donald Kohn and Susan Bies, along with regional bank presidents Janet Yellen and Richard Fisher, prepare speeches for this week. Fisher and Kohn this year have indicated it is too early for the central bank to let down its guard on inflation. Yellen and Bies have expressed concern that prices are rising too much.

``There's some potential for Fed speakers to deliver a bit of a wake-up call to the market over inflation,'' said Marc Ostwald, a fixed-income strategist at Insinger de Beaufort in London. ``There are still clear upside risks to rates.''

snip>

A report tomorrow is expected to show that consumer prices excluding food and energy rose 0.2 percent in January, the fastest since September, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Overall prices increased by 0.1 percent, versus 0.4 percent the month before, economists forecast.

``All eyes are going to be on tomorrow's CPI data,'' said Stuart Thomson, a bond fund manager at Resolution Investment Management in Glasgow, Scotland. ``We're expecting a higher than consensus figure, which could disturb the market. Yields are going to drift higher from here.''

more...

[54anickel]

44. A Bank of Japan Meeting Week... Today's Pfenning

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=1234

snip>

This is going to be short-n-sweet this morning, (like the book by Bill Gates on "Things I cannot afford"), as I have some huge tasks to get working on. We're short-handed on the desk, I have 350 emails in my box, and our voice mail box is full! On top of all that, I have to leave for a few hours in the middle of the day! UGH! So... Here we go!

On Friday, the title of the day's Pfennig was "Bad Data Begins To Mount" and that thought carried through with Friday's data... I told the desk on Friday that the economy had that brief lift from the December sales, etc., but it looks like we're right back to the negativity that was building toward the economy and the dollar, like it was as we began the year. Here's a brief breakdown of Friday's data...

Batting first, we saw the Producer Price index (PPI) had dropped 0.6% in January, which was bang on with expectations. While everyone will smile at the lack of pipeline inflation, this certainly doesn't help the dollar with regard to additional rate hikes...

Second on the lineup card was the U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence... While there are lots of things that could play into this drop... The upward movement of gas prices probably was a player, as was what I believe to be a realization by homeowners that the gravy train has left the station, and the house ATM is about to dry up... Again, no friend to the dollar was this data.

And finally, the Housing data... U.S. housing starts collapsed 14.3% in January, reversing December's rise... Uh-Oh... Here are some numbers inside the number... Starts were 3.8% lower than in January 2006. Single-family housing starts fell 11.2% to a 1.108-million rate, also the slowest since 1997. Multi-family starts fell 24.1% to an annual rate of 300K. Building permits, a precursor to future housing market activity, fell to 1.568 million, partly reversing December's rise.

After rebounding in November and December, this data tells us that maybe, just maybe, that star burned brightest before it burned out!

OK... Enough of all that data! The currencies did rally vs. the dollar on Friday, and held onto and in some cases added onto those gains during yesterday's U.S. holiday. The Japanese yen has really been on a yo-yo string the past few trading sessions... You see, the Bank of Japan meets this week, and that 4.8% GDP that posted last week should be the key master for the gate keeper... The Bank of Japan (BOJ)... But then, they disappointed the markets many a time before, why would this time be any different? I'll get some emails that tell me why the BOJ won't hike, so please save yourself the time, I'm quite aware of this fact... But I'm still going to go out on a limb on this one and say they will hike... I say it's 50/50...

A rate hike would go a long way toward the start of a reversal of the "carry trade," but with rates still so low (probably 1/2% if they hike, as they are only 1/4% now), it won't be any tidal wave move...

more...

[54anickel]

67. Is Cheney betting on Economic Collapse?

http://www.infoshop.org/inews/article.php?story=20070218082106650

Wouldn’t you like to know where Dick Cheney puts his money? Then you’d know whether his “deficits don’t matter” claim is just baloney or not.

Well, as it turns out, Kiplinger Magazine ran an article based on Cheney’s financial disclosure statement and, sure enough, found out that the VP is lying to the American people for the umpteenth time. Deficits do matter and Cheney has invested his money accordingly.

The article is called “Cheney’s betting on bad news” and provides an account of where Cheney has socked away more than $25 million. While the figures may be estimates, the investments are not. According to Tom Blackburn of the Palm Beach Post, Cheney has invested heavily in “a fund that specializes in short-term municipal bonds, a tax-exempt money market fund and an inflation protected securities fund. The first two hold up if interest rates rise with inflation. The third is protected against inflation.”

Cheney has dumped another (estimated) $10 to $25 million in a European bond fund which tells us that he is counting on a steadily weakening dollar. So, while working class Americans are loosing ground to inflation and rising energy costs, Darth Cheney will be enhancing his wealth in “Old Europe”. As Blackburn sagely notes, “Not all ‘bad news’ is bad for everybody.”

This should put to rest once and for all the foolish notion that the “Bush Economic Plan” is anything more than a scam aimed at looting the public till. The whole deal is intended to shift the nation's wealth from one class to another. It’s also clear that Bush-Cheney couldn’t have carried this off without the tacit approval of the thieves at the Federal Reserve who engineered the low-interest rate boondoggle to put the American people to sleep while they picked their pockets.

Reasonable people can dispute that Bush is “intentionally” skewering the dollar with his lavish tax cuts, but how does that explain Cheney’s portfolio?

It doesn’t. And, one thing we can say with metaphysical certainty is that the miserly Cheney would never plunk his money into an investment that wasn’t a sure thing. If Cheney is counting on the dollar tanking and interest rates going up, then, by Gawd, that’s what’ll happen.

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[54anickel]

68. Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy (Ron Paul)

http://baltimorechronicle.com/2007/021907Paul.shtml

Transparency in monetary policy is a goal we should all support. I've often wondered why Congress so willingly has given up its prerogative over monetary policy. Astonishingly, Congress in essence has ceded total control over the value of our money to a secretive central bank.

Congress created the Federal Reserve, yet it had no constitutional authority to do so. We forget that those powers not explicitly granted to Congress by the Constitution are inherently denied to Congress – and thus the authority to establish a central bank never was given. Of course Jefferson and Hamilton had that debate early on, a debate seemingly settled in 1913.

But transparency and oversight are something else, and they're worth considering. Congress, although not by law, essentially has given up all its oversight responsibility over the Federal Reserve. There are no true audits, and Congress knows nothing of the conversations, plans, and actions taken in concert with other central banks. We get less and less information regarding the money supply each year, especially now that M3 is no longer reported.

The role the Fed plays in the President's secretive Working Group on Financial Markets goes unnoticed by members of Congress. The Federal Reserve shows no willingness to inform Congress voluntarily about how often the Working Group meets, what actions it takes that affect the financial markets, or why it takes those actions.
But these actions, directed by the Federal Reserve, alter the purchasing power of our money. And that purchasing power is always reduced. The dollar today is worth only four cents compared to the dollar in 1913, when the Federal Reserve started. This has profound consequences for our economy and our political stability. All paper currencies are vulnerable to collapse, and history is replete with examples of great suffering caused by such collapses, especially to a nation's poor and middle class. This leads to political turmoil.

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[54anickel]

12. Subprime in Context (Last entry in the Credit Bubble Bulletin)

http://www.prudentbear.com/articles/show/353

snip>

It is my view that, at least for the most part, subprime is not a viable business over the entire life of the business cycle. Invariably during the boom – with cheap finance too readily available and a broadening cadre of aggressive lenders, financiers, and speculators actively pursuing their share of ballooning profits – subprime loans will be under-priced and grossly overextended. There will be dire consequences. And the more protracted the boom, the greater will be the systemic impact of the mispricing and overexpansion of subprime finance. Inevitably, there is no escaping the reality that the industry is a Ponzi Finance Unit, acutely dependent upon new liquidity to sustain lending volumes and, hence, asset prices, borrower solvency and loan quality.

Importantly, amidst Credit Euphoria, the overextension of loans will inflate collateral values (home prices) and boost the general economy. With home prices up, unemployment down, and Credit all around, few will be forced into default and foreclosure. Subprime profits will be distorted both by inflated revenue growth (surging loan volumes, gain on sale at inflated prices, and attractive spreads on retained portfolios) and by artificially low Credit losses. The outstanding performance of subprime securitizations and related derivatives will entice only greater speculator interest and sector liquidity overabundance, pushing up the price (down the yield) of risky mortgages. In the real economy, easy finance and housing price inflation spur overbuilding, overspending, and a misallocation of resources.

Subprime lending notoriously understates future Credit costs (overstating current profits/returns), a profits distortion made much more consequential by “gain on sale” accounting, “mark-to-market,” “mark-to-model,” speculator leveraging, and other nuances of contemporary finance. And as long as individual lenders and the industry overall each year expand the scope of lending, rising revenues (from new loans) can remain somewhat ahead of mounting Credit losses (from old loans). But the longer this inflationary process is allowed to proceed the greater will be the unavoidable (Ponzi) bust. Actually, it is my view that with our entire Credit system now operating as a Ponzi Finance Unit, the “prime” mortgage market functions with similar dynamics as those noted above for subprime.

We are in the midst of a unique Credit cycle. The ability for originators to sell loans and immediately book profits; for investment bankers to buy, securitize and immediately book profits; and for leveraged speculators to acquire various securitizations and other derivatives and book easy profits from various spreads and “mark-to-model” - have all made this Credit boom unlike any other. In particular, the ability to securitize loans in the highly liquid ABS/MBS marketplace, as well as insure/speculate on Credit performance in booming derivatives markets, has – or perhaps in the case of subprime, had - radically altered the capacity to prolong the Credit cycle.

Today, Subprime mortgage originator profits are collapsing – lending volumes are sinking; “gain on sale” is reversing to loss; Credit losses (especially from returned “early defaults”) are surging; and the liquidity necessary to operate is disappearing overnight. This has initiated the ugly downside of operating as a Ponzi Finance Unit. The issue of early payment defaults – where investment bankers/securitization pool operators return problem mortgages in droves back to the originator – is rapidly bankrupting this thinly-capitalized industry. And the more acute the risk of insolvency, the greater the incentive for investment banks to rush to dump problem loans while the originator still retains some liquidity (think “bank run”). Wednesday, California originator ResMae filed for bankruptcy after Merrill Lynch sought to return $520 million “worth” of mortgages.

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[54anickel]

14. Signs that subprime mortgage market has borrowed trouble

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-re-harney18feb18,1,1828076.story?coll=la-headlines-business

WASHINGTON — Is a blowout taking shape in the impaired-credit mortgage market? Could lax underwriting standards during the boom years — no verification of applicants' incomes or assets, low or no down payments, and big mortgages to people already saddled with heavy debts — finally be coming home to roost?

The omens are unmistakable:

Delinquencies — failure to make a mortgage payment when due — in the $1.3-trillion impaired-credit mortgage market hit 12.6% in the latest quarter, up from 11.7%. Delinquencies exceeded 13% among borrowers with so-called subprime adjustable-rate loans.

Growing numbers of the companies that make or invest in subprime mortgages are themselves facing financial distress, and some have shut their doors or filed for bankruptcy protection. HSBC Holdings PLC, Europe's largest bank and a major subprime lender in this country, shocked Wall Street recently by announcing that home loan delinquencies have gotten so bad that it has set aside $10.6 billion to cover potential losses.

snip>

Whichever perspective you prefer, this much you can be certain about: The entire subprime industry is likely to tighten underwriting standards and throttle back on the highest-risk loans. And buyers with marginal or poor credit are likely to be quoted even higher rates and fees than they would otherwise.

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[54anickel]

15. Investors in mortgage-backed securities fail to react to market plunge

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/02/18/yourmoney/morgenson.php

NEW YORK: It's amazing how long it can take investors to see that the wheels are coming off a prized investment vehicle. Denial, after all, is a powerful thing.

But when an imperiled favorite happens to be a pool of asset-backed securities — especially those involving home mortgages — denial can be compounded by outright blindness to the real risks of that investment.

That may explain why, even as everyone concedes that the subprime or low-grade mortgage market has fallen into the sea, the vast pools of mortgage-backed securities built in part on those risky mortgage loans still appear to be on solid ground.

Investors, chasing the buzz of ever higher yields, have flocked into the mortgage-backed market in recent years. Nobody wants to think that the possibility of a wide-ranging subprime debacle is also a harbinger of looming problems for investments tied to those loans. But the reality is that these vehicles — and the collateralized debt obligations that hold them — are not as secure as many believe. And that has broad implications for the capital markets.

Consider how torrid the issuance of these securities has been in recent years. In the last three years, for example, big banks and brokerage firms almost doubled the amount of residential loans they issued, going to $1.1 trillion last year from $586 billion in 2003.

snip>

"The danger in these products is that in changing hands so many times, no one knows their true makeup, and thus who is holding the risk," Rosner said in a statement. Recent revelations of problem loans at some institutions, he added, "have finally confirmed that these risks are much more significant than the broader markets had anticipated."

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[54anickel]

18. Freddie Mac Says Demand for Bonds in Asia Is `Strong' (Update4)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a1dIFzMHZoV4&refer=worldwide

Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Freddie Mac, the second-largest source of money for U.S. home loans, said ``strong, steady'' demand among Asian investors will support the market for the mortgage finance company's bonds.

``There's strong, steady demand for Freddie Mac securities in this area of the world,'' said Patricia Cook, the government- chartered company's executive vice president of investments and capital markets.

Central banks in Asia hold $3.1 trillion, or about two- thirds, of the world's foreign reserves. Asian investors increased purchases of U.S. agency debt for a third year in 2006 as they shifted from Treasuries in search of higher yields and returns, Treasury Department data show.

Freddie Mac notes returned 4.1 percent last year, the most since 2002, compared with 3.1 percent for Treasuries, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes.

The extra yield, or spread, investors demand to own Freddie Mac's notes over similar-maturity U.S. notes narrowed to 24 basis points on Feb. 16 from 32 basis points six months ago, according to Merrill. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

``Demand for dollar assets is going to keep the spreads tight,'' McLean, Virginia-based Cook said in a Tokyo interview on Feb. 16 after meeting central bankers, life insurers and other financial institutions in Beijing, Hong Kong, and the Japanese capital.

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[54anickel]

20. Zero-down lenders folding

http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_5263213

Brian and Selah Davenport were two days away from closing on a townhouse in Parker when their mortgage broker called on Valentine's Day.

Their lender, Las Vegas-based Silver State Financial Services, one of the country's bigger subprime lenders, had ceased operations. That forced the couple, who were looking for a zero- down loan, to scramble to find another lender and save the purchase.

"I didn't know a lender could shut down all of a sudden and there would be nothing for you as a consumer," said Selah, who hopes to close Friday.

About two dozen of the largest subprime mortgage lenders across the country - some with offices and customers in Denver - have gone under or stopped making loans since December, according to the Mortgage Lender "Implode-O-Meter," a new website tracking closures in the subprime lending industry.

The site tracks only large lenders, so there are probably far more closures.

"You're seeing 40 or 50 (subprime companies) a day throughout the country going down in one form or another. I expect that to continue throughout the year," Angelo Mozilo, chief executive of Countrywide Financial, told investors in a recent conference call.

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[AnneD]

25. Morning Marketeers...

:donut: Thanks for keeping up with this credit bubble. I still think the other shoe hasn't dropped. The USB (is that right?) announcing that they would have to set more money aside to cover bad sub primes was the first shoe dropping. It seemed it took that to get the attention of the markets for a few nano seconds.

All of these articles are the little tremours that investor need to watch for. I can't believe all the 'happy' news that keeps spouting from the National Realtor Association and others. You know the worst is behind us rah rah.:eyes: We are in for a serious quake of at least a 7 on the Richter scale-just a matter of time, folks, just a matter of time.

The hedge funds are proving to be dicey too. I wonder how many folks will be jumping out of windows or going to jail over this.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[54anickel]

34. Bleak houses

http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8706627

snip>

They loosened their lending standards as the demand for loans started to drop in 2004. They also resorted to “alternative” products with enticing terms and off-putting names, such as “negative-amortisation” loans (which set repayments so low that the debt gets bigger) or “hybrid” adjustable-rate mortgages (with low teaser rates that jump after a few years). About 27% of all mortgages made in 2006 were of such non-traditional kinds, according to Inside Mortgage Finance, a newsletter.

Not content with these two moneypots, the more eager lenders began to combine them to make a third. They offered risky products to insecure borrowers. According to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), hybrid mortgages made up three-quarters of all new subprime loans in 2004 and 2005. The FDIC reckons many firms underwrote hybrid loans assuming that borrowers would refinance them quickly, before the low introductory rates jumped. But this was a reckless assumption when interest rates were rising and house prices softening.

An over-reliance on unseasoned risk models is also partly to blame for bad underwriting. Subprime and alternative mortgages belong to “uncharted territory”, says Sheila Bair, head of the FDIC, making “modelling credit performance exceptionally difficult”. The chief executive of HSBC, Michael Geoghegan, admitted as much in a conference call last week: “You've got to have history for analytics...the fact of the matter is there for the adjustable-mortgage rate business when you've had 17 jumps in US interest rates.”

The pressure to lend did not only come from within. Even as mortgage-writers lured borrowers with soft terms, they were themselves tempted by the strong appetite of investors for riskier assets. Wall Street banks did a roaring trade packaging bunches of subprime loans into mortgage-backed securities, and selling them on to investors, greedy for yields (see chart).

The art of securitisation, as it is called, adds liquidity to the market and allows risks to be parcelled out to those most eager to bear them. Over the past few years, it has also freed up cash for more lending and earned banks pots of money. But it may have made a wobbly subprime market even wobblier. Banks are traditionally supposed to know a bit about the borrowers on their books. But in many cases, their loans did not stay on their books long enough for them to care. Mortgages were written for a fee, sold to investment banks for a fee, then packaged and floated for another fee. At each link in the chain, the fees mattered more than the quality of the loans, which could always be passed on. “This was classic market failure,” says Anthony Sanders, a mortgage expert at Ohio State University's Fisher College of Business. “The private sector wanted fees and got them, and they did not much care what happened afterwards.”

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[54anickel]

43. The housing ATM rot is just the beginning

Lenders New Century and HSBC finally admit problems, but the bulls still don't want to see the obvious: A negative economic reaction is inevitable.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/TheHousingATMRotIsJustTheBeginning.aspx

Reality kidnapped Goldilocks on Feb. 8, if only fleetingly. That's when folks took to heart negative announcements from mortgage lenders New Century Financial and HSBC.

From New Century (NEW, news, msgs) came word that (a) its financials were basically no good and that (b) it hadn't properly accounted for loans it had sold to other institutions and that might now be sent back..

Even more important was the news from HSBC (HBC, news, msgs), regarded as a good operator, which revealed that it was going to take its mortgage loan-loss reserves from $8.8 billion and change to $10.6 billion and change. The disconcerting conclusion reached by HSBC, as described recently in The Wall Street Journal:

"Its systems for screening subprime borrowers and for assessing the default risk they posed were flawed. Many of those loans have soured, sometimes quickly. The percentage of HSBC mortgages more than 60 days past due is climbing. Fraud by borrowers has been higher than expected."

Yes, there is a consequence
To which I would respond: No kidding. How clever, how smart, how awake did you have to be to know that that was going on and that this was going to be the outcome?

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[54anickel]

13. Risks Still Cloud U.S. Economic Outlook

http://www.forbes.com/home/business/2007/02/16/economic-outlook-bernanke-biz-cx_0219oxford.html

The U.S. Federal Reserve on Jan. 14 forecast sustained healthy economic growth in 2007. Most analysts believe the Fed has put the economy on a glide path to a "soft landing" of only slightly below-trend growth, and financial markets have reacted positively. However, disquieting economic data suggests growth may be more fragile than expected.

The White House Council of Economic Advisers' economic forecast for 2007 calls for 2.9% GDP growth. The forecast followed a report that the economy had posted 3.5% annualized GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2006 in the face of generally slowing inflation. Although the fourth-quarter growth numbers probably will be revised downward, the report produced positive congressional reviews for Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's stewardship of monetary policy. However, there are trends in data that could cloud this outlook.

The details of the 2006 fourth-quarter preliminary GDP report reveal soft spots:

--Weak investment spending. While real consumer spending was the positive linchpin of the report, investment spending was surprisingly weak.

--Plummeting residential investment. Residential investment spending declined in the fourth quarter.

--Government spending stimulus. A key boost to growth in the fourth quarter came from a rise in federal defense spending.

--Downward growth revision. Most data releases since the GDP report have come in weaker than expected, which suggests that the government's revised GDP data for the fourth quarter will reduce the quarterly growth estimate to 2.5% to 3.0%.

A number of economic statistics suggest that the U.S. economy is somewhat fragile:

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[54anickel]

16. Wall Street's next scandal

The SEC is investigating whether some of Wall Street's top investment banks are using inside information. Fortune's Shawn Tully explores the potentially explosive scandal.

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2007/03/05/8401273/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote

Fortune Magazine) -- In early February, the SEC confirmed that it was investigating whether the major brokerage houses were tipping off hedge funds to the trades the brokers handle for big clients like mutual funds. If that's happening, it would be a scandal.

The SEC is also likely to scour trading records to see if the brokers are using info about clients' moves to invest their own capital. If the SEC finds evidence that they are, the scandal would be enormous - and go to the heart of Wall Street's profit machine.

A big question mark hangs over Wall Street: How is it that the top firms consistently beat the odds, earning spectacular returns on their own investments? Last year the five biggest U.S. investment banks - Morgan Stanley (Charts), Goldman Sachs (Charts), Merrill Lynch (Charts), Lehman Brothers (Charts) and Bear Stearns (Charts) - generated $61 billion from proprietary trading, about half their total revenue and a 54 percent increase over 2005.

Those returns have raised eyebrows for years. "Even the greatest investors lose money at some point, but the Wall Street firms never seem to lose," marvels Tiger Williams, chief of Williams Trading, a firm that attributes its success to keeping its hedge fund clients' trades strictly confidential.

Some Wall Street insiders are pretty sure they know the secret. "Privileged information is the real currency that runs Wall Street," says Doug Atkin, the former CEO of Instinet who now runs the research boutique Majestic Research. "With what the traders at the big firms know, my 11-year-old son could make tons of money."

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[54anickel]

17. Kennedy to SEC: Probe Sallie Mae Execs

Did inside information from the White House spur Sallie's chairman to sell 34 percent of his holdings?

http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/8721930/c_8724695?f=home_todayinfinance

Scooter Libby may not be the only White House denizen being investigated for leaking information. On Tuesday, Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) asked the Securities and Exchange Commission to examine whether officials at student-loan lender SLM Corp. — also known as Sallie Mae — violated insider-trading rules by selling stock before the release of President Bush's 2008 budget proposal.

The proposed budget includes a $14.9 billion cut, spread over five years, of government subsidies paid to such private-sector student-loan companies as Sallie Mae, Nelnet, and Student Loan Corp. The budget plan sent shockwaves through the student-loan industry and sent stock prices tumbling: share prices for market leader Sallie Mae dropped nearly 9 percent at the news, while shares of Nelnet and Student Loan Corp. dipped almost 10 percent and 6 percent, respectively.

About a week later, on February 13, Kennedy sent a letter to SEC chairman Christopher Cox requesting that the regulator look into stock trades made by Sallie Mae officers and directors — particularly those made by Sallie's chairman, Albert L. Lord, who sold 400,000 shares to net $18.3 million just days before the budget proposal became public. Lord would have made $1.4 million less had he waited until after the budget announcement. SEC spokesperson John Heine said the commission declined to comment on Kennedy's letter.

Specifically, Kennedy wants to know if Sallie Mae officials were tipped off by someone inside the Bush Administration who knew the contents of the budget plan before it was released on February 5. Five Sallie Mae executives, including CFO Charles Andrews, sold stock within 10 days before Bush's announcement. However, the collective number of shares sold by the quintet amount to 3,394, which represents an aggregate $154,000 in proceeds.

Sallie Mae officials deny that Lord's sell-off was prompted by inside information. The timing of his stock sale "was completely and utterly coincidental," Sallie Mae spokesman Tom Joyce told CFO.com. The level of subsidy cuts contained in the budget proposal was "a surprise" to the industry, added Joyce, although he confirmed that industry observers did speculate about cutbacks to the subsidy program before Bush's announcement.

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[54anickel]

19. Corn Farms Replace New York Lofts as Hottest Property (Update1)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a4C7n_GCfjYw&refer=us

Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Farmland from Iowa to Argentina is rising faster in price than apartments in Manhattan and London for the first time in 30 years.

Demand for corn used in ethanol increased the value of crop land 16 percent in Indiana and 35 percent in Idaho in 2006, government figures show. The price of a Soho loft appreciated only 12 percent, while a pied-a-terre in Islington near London's financial district gained 11 percent, according to realtors.

Farmland returns ``will take a quantum leap over the next 18 months,'' after corn prices surged to a 10-year high in February, said Murray Wise, the 58-year-old chairman and chief executive officer of Westchester Group Inc. in Champaign, Illinois, who oversees $460 million of land investments.

Wise, who was born on a Canadian farm and now manages 85,000 acres, said prices in the U.S. Midwest may gain 12 percent a year through 2017. Farmland rose in value in 34 of the last 37 years, according to data compiled by UBSAgriVest, a unit of UBS AG, the world's biggest money manager. The returns are attracting hedge funds and investment brokers.

snip>

Average U.S. farm prices increased by 15 percent in 2006, Agriculture Department data show. The cost of buying corn farms in Argentina, the world's second-largest exporter of the grain, jumped 27 percent, according to Buenos Aires industry newsletter Margenes Agropecuarios.

Marc Faber, a Hong Kong-based investor who manages about $300 million, says one of his favorite stocks is Cresud SA, a landowner in Argentina's Pampas region. The shares jumped 63 percent last year. Farmland is ``very inexpensive in a world of inflated asset prices,'' he said in an interview Feb. 4 from Bermuda.

The demand for corn used in ethanol got a boost from U.S. President George W. Bush last month, when he urged a fivefold increase in renewable fuels by 2017. To meet Bush's goal, 12.5 billion bushels of corn would be needed, 19 percent more than was harvested last year in the U.S., the world's biggest producer.

more...

[AnneD]

26. There goes the corn prices.....

look for price increases in anything that uses corn or corn feed.

[54anickel]

69. Rash of vacant hives spurs new crop fears (Uhh-oh)

New Paltz beekeeper believes threat seen in 11 states may be here

http://www.timesunion.com/AspStories/story.asp?storyID=564721&category=REGION&newsdate=2/20/2007

NEW PALTZ -- Last fall, something strange starting happening to honeybees. It's since been named Colony Collapse Disorder, also known by beekeepers as the "disappearing bee disease." Chris Harp believes he's seen it firsthand.

Harp, a New Paltz resident who keeps hives and tends those owned by others, said he was hired at an upstate farm, which he declined to identify, that started 54 hives last spring.

By October, only 19 were left, with the rest devoid of adult bees that sustain hives by gathering pollen. Only young bees remained. Perhaps most oddly, honey left behind had not been raided by neighboring bees, as usually happens when a hive is left undefended.

"This really had me scratching my head. Colony Collapse Disorder wasn't even a word yet," Harp said.

Researchers at Penn State University, along with the U.S. Department of Agriculture and state agriculture departments in Pennsylvania and Florida, are racing to find a cause of the illness, which surfaced suddenly and has been reported in 11 states.

So far, the cause is a mystery. Possibilities include some usual bee maladies, like parasitic mites and fungus, along with the disturbing possibility that a specific pesticide may be giving bees something like Alzheimer's disease, making them unable to find their way back to the hive.

more...

[AnneD]

79. All the more reason to watch the corn prices....

I actually grew a small bit of corn and hand pollinated just to be on the safe side. I don't know if the wild bees did it or I helped, but I did get enough corn for 2 summer parties and a little in the fridge. I can't imagine these agribusinesses trying to hand pollinate :rofl: They are great at spreading the fertilizer but not so good at pollination. The bees are just ...disappearing-never to be seen. That is the scary part of this. Hundreds of hives disappearing almost overnight. And that is so dangerous for bees-they can't live long outside the hive. If I could pick a crazy job-I'd become a bee keeper. Great GrandPa kept hives for his crops. He could work around them without netting and never got stung. I work well with bees too-I don't know about the netting, but I've handled the odd few bees to get them to safer spots.

[54anickel]

86. Ahhh, fruits and veggies are way over rated anyway. We can all just

live on meat and cheese. Oh wait a minute....

[54anickel]

22. Markets Get a Bit Too Calm and Cozy for Comfort

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_currier&sid=a.R38JpQwVbg

Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Conditions are so calm and orderly in the financial markets right now, it's enough to make a person squirm.

Most days it's a pleasant business to check the progress of one's stocks and mutual funds. Too pleasant -- a sense of uncertainty and the natural messiness of life is missing.

I'm hardly the first to raise these concerns. For months now, analysts who keep track of sentiment toward stocks have been decrying an overabundance of bullishness.

In the domestic bond market, and in international markets for both bonds and stocks, skeptics complain that investors aren't getting paid as much as they should for taking extra risk.

Prominent investors regularly voice their misgivings. One of the latest was Michael Steinhardt, the long-time hedge fund manager, who warned last week, ``There are some signs of a little bit of excess.''

snip>

The markets also owe their steadiness to some purely financial forces. The dramatic growth of credit derivatives has changed the way risk makes its presence felt in the bond market. Hedge funds, which play markets from both sides, have helped to diminish volatility by jumping quickly at every perceived pricing anomaly.

Thanks also go to strong, steady flows of new money from sources as disparate as Asian central banks and mutual fund investors.

Are any or all of these forces subject to change without notice? Of course they are. So while the circumstances may fully justify a bullish view of where the markets are headed over time, prospects for perpetual peace and tranquility in the markets are far less reliable. The future is bright, most likely, but it won't always be fun.

more...

[54anickel]

23. 10:06 and all is red

Dow 12,711.09 56.48 (0.44%)
Nasdaq 2,479.92 16.39 (0.66%)
S&P 500 1,449.55 5.99 (0.41%)
10-yr Bond 4.70% 0.01
30-yr Bond 4.7970% 0.0090
NYSE Volume 356,491,000
Nasdaq Volume 430,858,000

10:00 am : The market is extending its reach to the downside as nine out of 10 sectors are now in negative territory. Energy (-1.1%) is pacing the way as plunging oil prices exacerbate concerns about the sector's earnings potential.

Materials, this year's best performing sector (+8.7%), is also succumbing to some early profit taking while an analyst downgrade on Semiconductor Equipment -- today's worst performing S&P industry group (-1.7%) -- takes a toll on Technology. DJ30 -37.81 NASDAQ -11.27 SOX -1.0% SP500 -5.27 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1613/1003/312 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1670/1007/86 mln

09:40 am : Stocks limp into the holiday-shortened week exhibiting a cautious tone. That's not all that surprising, though, since the Dow is fresh off of its 30th record close since October and turning in its best weekly performance (+1.5%) in three months.

The lack of overwhelming evidence to support recent gains that have the S&P 500 already up 2.6% just six weeks into 2007 is also leaving the door open for investors to question valuations. There are no economic data scheduled to potentially play into Bernanke's dovish remarks, reports on the earnings front are mixed and M&A news involving a proposed $11.4 bln merger of equals may not win regulatory approval. DJ30 -17.61 NASDAQ -8.00 SP500 -2.54 NASDAQ Vol 82 mln NYSE Vol 38 mln

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.0.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.3. With the major indices up 1.4% on average last week, an underlying sense that stocks are overbought on a short-term basis continues to give sellers a slight edge heading into the opening bell. Meanwhile, oil prices are plunging 2.5% and below $58/bbl, which further supports Fed Chairman Bernanke's more dovish stance.

However, the likelihood of subsequent consolidation throughout what has been a large contributor to the S&P 500's overall earnings picture for several quarters (Energy), on top of lingering concerns about decelerating earnings growth, merely serves as a reminder that 13 straight quarters of double-digit profit growth is likely to come to an end.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.8. Still shaping up to be a slightly lower start for stocks as futures indications languish below fair value.

Even though there are no potentially troubling economic reports scheduled for this morning, the specter of tomorrow's closely-watched CPI report as the next inflation read is also contributing to the market's bearish disposition.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.0. Early indications suggest the cash market will kick off a holiday-shortened week in sluggish fashion as last week's sizable leave some thinking the market is getting ahead of itself. There is some M&A news keeping selling efforts in check. Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) has agreed to buy rival XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) in a $13 bln stock swap while Vulcan Materials (VMC) is paying $4.6 bln for Florida Rock Industries (FRK).

However, a 28% drop in Q4 profits and sales shortfall from Home Depot (HD) is currently overshadowing better than feared guidance from fellow Dow component Wal-Mart (WMT) and also contributing to some early profit-taking proclivities.

[54anickel]

24. Ten Things Your 401(k) Provider Will Not Tell You

http://finance.yahoo.com/retirement/article/102076/Ten_Things_Your_401(k)_Provider_Will_Not_Tell_You

1. "We're making a mint on your 401(k) -- even if you're not."
The number of 401(k) investors has soared in the past decade, to nearly 50 million from 28 million, according to Cerulli Associates. That torrid growth has created impressive efficiencies for the folks who run your plan. But it doesn't mean those savings show up in your account; in fact, they could be coming straight out of it. In a practice known as revenue sharing, providers get a cut of the expense ratio on the funds in your 401(k) to cover day-to-day "administrative costs." Since the fee is charged as a percentage of assets, that revenue increases as your 401(k) grows, even though those costs stay virtually the same.

But the gravy train may be coming to an end, as these and other fee arrangements in 401(k)s are suddenly drawing attention. Companies, who have the legal responsibility to ensure reasonable fees, are facing lawsuits onthe issue; the Labor Department is mulling new disclosure rules; and New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer is sniffing around 401(k)s. "Plan costs will become more transparent," says Matt Gnabasik of retirement-plan consultancy Blue Prairie Group. "Any time you have more transparency, it tends to lower fees."

2. "You're buying wholesale, but we're charging you retail."
With $2.4 trillion sloshing around in 401(k) plans, you shouldn't be paying the same fees for a fund that you would if, say, you bought it on your own. But in reality, you might be. Here's how it works: Asset managers sell mutual funds in different share classes, each of which has a different fee structure. From the most expensive to the cheapest class of funds, the range can be as much as a full percentage point, says Yannis Koumantaros, chief pension consultant at Spectrum Pension Consultants. That works out to an extra $1,200 a month in retirement for a 30-year-old with $50,000 in his plan and contributions of $3,000 annually. "You're talking about a difference in your quality of life at retirement," Koumantaros says.

What plans have the highest fees? Usually, those with the fewest investors. Small plans are expensive to run, so they often have to accept costlier fund classes. But your employer can renegotiate for cheaper options as the plan expands: Those holding between $10 million and $30 million per asset class should lobby for institutional funds, which are cheaper on average than traditional mutual funds.

3. "No one in his right mind would buy these funds -- given a choice."
Confused about why your 401(k) doesn't offer the top funds? That's because your asset manager may not have them in each category -- it might offer stellar large-cap stock funds but mediocre small-cap picks. And providers may charge extra for better alternatives from other sources. "If you see some lousy funds from the company that's providing the plan, that's probably why," says Russel Kinnel, research director at Morningstar. Another issue: Funds need to be big enough that they don't get swamped by the influx of 401(k) money, but for mutual funds, size is often a handicap. Take Fidelity's Magellan, the poster child for asset bloat. The fund is a mainstay of 401(k)s, but has underperformed the S&P 500 for years. It closed to new retail investors in 1997 but continuesto accept new 401(k) money. The current manager has revamped the strategy, but only time will tell if Magellan can return to its former glory.

As a 401(k) investor, it's also wise to find out whose job it is to do the fund picking. Often, it's a hired hand in HR likely more schooled in recruitment than in investing.

more...

[AnneD]

27. Excellent article

:applause: and thumbs up.

[specimenfred1984]

28. Agreed, n/t.

...

[54anickel]

29. Mornin' AnneD. It's such a Ponzi scheme. Gotta give the PTB credit though,

they've learned to play on the "greed" aspect of human nature. Nearly everyone now has a vested interest in corporations, financials and the markets doing well (beyond just having a paying job). It's how they get folks to vote against things that are truly in their own best interest as part of a community - a safe, educated, poverty-free, environmentally friendly society.

I saw a post the other day calling Fidelity on making indirect investments in Sudan, thus contributing to the nightmare in Darfur. I think it was their investments in a couple of Chinese oil companies. It's a nice gesture, but Fidelity is just a drop in the bucket. Hate being so cynical, but nasty shit like that isn't going to change unless there's a huge cultural change and I don't see that happening anytime soon. We're all too wrapped up in this "me" culture. Individualism can be a good thing, but sometimes I think we've taken it way too far and fail to see how our personal choices and attempts at getting ahead effect this global community we find ourselves in.

Oops, edit to add (lost my train of thought after talking a phone call mid-post)

'Money Trumps Peace'
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=3121968&mesg_id=3121968


Change through Money in Darfur
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=389&topic_id=243099#243413

[AnneD]

41. I have always viewed money as a tool for change...

I'll negotiate a merchant for a good price on merchandise-but if it is a craftsman or farmer-I give them more of a top dollar. I prefer to shop at small mom and pop places-where my money circulates longer. I try to make socially responsible investments. I have been very successful with good returns. It is just better to do right.

[54anickel]

46. China diversifies to buy its future, ignoring western morality

http://www.kitco.com/ind/AuthenticMoney/feb192007.html

A year ago the Chinese began making plans to push a good percentage of their reserves overseas. They are now at last taking action to implement a new policy of diversifying the country's over US$1 trillion foreign exchange reserves.

Yuan Bonds
The Ministry of Finance (MOF) is planning to issue Yuan-denominated bonds to raise funds that will be used to "buy out" as much as $200 billion from the country's foreign reserve pool. To take funds out of the foreign exchange reserves the government must pay the equivalent amount in Yuan to balance the books. At the current exchange rate, the total amount of Yuan bonds to be issued by the MOF will be more than 1.5 trillion Yuan. The ministry will sell the bonds to commercial banks. The scale of the Ministry of Finance’s planned bond issuance is so huge that it will have to be done phase-by-phase. In so doing, pressure on market liquidity can be alleviated. Although the market is awash in liquidity, the issue needs to be in line with monetary policy. Nowadays, liquidity inside the banking system is more than sufficient. If the government bonds are issued phase by phase, the due bank notes issued by the P.BoC and the new base money from the purchase of the foreign exchange will allow the market to absorb the pressure. If the 1.5 trillion Yuan is drawn from the banking system in three years, the market could bear the impact on liquidity, it is believed.

Invested back overseas
The $200 billion "bought out" from the foreign exchange reserves will then be injected into a new company to be set up this year to handle overseas investment with foreign reserves. The State Council, China’s cabinet, will control the new company, tentatively named National Foreign Exchange Investment Co. It will spend funds from the foreign reserves on mergers and acquisitions of overseas businesses, including foreign financial institutions. It will also target overseas energy assets and will likely acquire equities in the domestic markets, or even lend money to help finance domestic research and development projects. Very neat!

Little effect inside China
Why? - Because the way this is being handled takes excess liquidity out of the Chinese monetary system and keeps the reserves offshore. This way the upward pressure on the Yuan can be eased as well. Simply put the foreign exchange reserves are being separated from the internal economy despite their being export revenues. The control of the money supply through the draining of liquidity from the internal system after exporters have received Yuan payments is the only way to do it. But this permits the effective overseas investment of the surpluses. Some suggest that the government adopt a Japanese practice: the Ministry of Finance issues home-currency denominated bonds to buy foreign exchange flowing into the country. The purpose of the policy is to separate the burgeoning money supply from the increasing foreign exchange reserves.

This contrasts with the U.S. system where such issues are used to accommodate foreign investments inside the U.S.A. .

$ worries persist
The government is worried about the appreciating Yuan and needs to protect its value. Selling the $’ is just not an option at this stage, the fall in the $ would be disastrous on the balance of the reserves. If the US dollars depreciate against the Yuan by 5% this year, which is almost certain, the reserves will "shrink" by $50 billion against the Yuan, equivalent to the amount of capital the Central Huijin Investment Co has injected into Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), Bank of China (BOC) and China Construction Bank (CCB). Now the government has handed the responsibility out and to a body that will spend these $’ overseas for productive assets or future supplies of strategic materials. This is an effective ‘switch’ from the $ to assets .
Some believe that the government is considering hedging the risk on their $’. With that many dollars that will be interesting.

snip>

Sudan

The United States said on Monday that a visit by China's president to Sudan, when he offered a loan to build a presidential palace, sent "mixed signals" about Beijing's intent to press Khartoum over Darfur.


more...

[54anickel]

63. Rich nations guilty of neglect in disasters

http://www.nyasatimes.com/FEATURES/264.html

Natural disasters that kill thousands of people in poor countries and wreck the lives of many more are made worse by long-term ''deadly neglect'' by richer nations, the global Red Cross body IFRC said.

The grouping, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, also said in its annual world disasters report that western self-interest drives much media coverage of disasters and humanitarian crises.

''The past two years have seen unprecedented attention lavished on disasters by the media, by the public and by aid organisations across the world,'' said IFRC secretary general Markku Niskala in an introduction to the report.

''Yet for every crisis that takes centre stage, there are a dozen more waiting in the wings for a walk-on part.''

snip>

''Common sense would dictate that the larger the disaster, the greater the media attention and the more generous the response'' said Niskala in his introduction to the report.

''That was certainly the case with the tsunami. But it is unfortunately not a universal rule. Research across a range of disasters reveals that there is no clear link between death tolls and media interest. Rather, western self-interest gives journalists a stronger steer.''

[54anickel]

31. 12:13 and there's a new day dawning

Dow 12,786.00 18.43 (0.14%)
Nasdaq 2,508.64 12.33 (0.49%)
S&P 500 1,459.00 3.46 (0.24%)
10-yr Bond 4.686% 0.004
30-yr Bond 4.783% 0.005
NYSE Volume 1,060,854,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,163,658,000

12:00 pm : Stocks are now trading at session highs midday as early attempts to lock in some of last week's sizable gains continue to fade. Even though the follow-through momentum is commendable, it is also worth noting that market gains are modest while below average volume (on the NYSE) following a long holiday weekend lends less conviction on the part of buyers' recent attempts to sideline sellers.

As evidenced by the Nasdaq outpacing its blue-chip counterparts to the upside, the most noticeable turnaround has been in Technology. Semiconductor Equipment was the day's worst performing S&P industry group throughout most of the morning after Credit Suisse downgraded it to Market-Weight from Overweight. However, Dow component Intel (INTC 21.23 unch) erasing a 1.6% decline has renewed some confidence about semiconductor valuations. Other notable tech areas recently turning positive include Hardware, Software and Internet Services.

Having a much larger impact on the Dow, though, is Wal-Mart (WMT 49.81 +1.41), which is surging nearly 3% after following up a Q4 earnings surprise by issuing Q1 guidance at the high end of expectations. Fellow Dow component Home Depot (HD 41.68 +0.24) recently turning the corner after being down almost 2.0% earlier amid a 28% drop in Q4 profits is also responsible for lifting the Dow into unchartered territory yet again.

Throw in a nearly 3.0% decline in oil prices, and the Energy sector not completely selling off in sympathy, and investor sentiment continues to improve. Crude for March delivery, which expires today, is at $58.70/bbl amid warm weather forecasts and following some bearish news out of the D.O.E. about the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Some M&A news is also making the rounds and providing an added source of support. Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI 4.00 +0.30) has agreed to buy rival XM Satellite Radio (XMSR 15.66 +1.68) in an $11.4 bln stock swap. Vulcan Materials (VMC 111.29 -0.52) is paying $4.6 bln for Florida Rock Industries (FRK 66.64 +19.68). DJ30 +13.06 DJTA +0.5% NASDAQ +10.45 NQ100 +0.5% R2K +0.5% SOX +0.1% SP400 +0.5% SP500 +2.98 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1158/1777/990 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1360/1787/546 mln

11:30 am : Recent recovery efforts continue to gain traction as buyers pick up shares selectively. SanDisk (SNDK 40.05 -0.08), which was down more than 3.0% earlier after saying it expects to lower prices in Q1 by 30-40% sequentially, is now down only 0.2%.

Aside from Technology reaching break even on the day, as evidenced by the turnaround on the Nasdaq, blue chips are also getting a lift. Dow component Home Depot (HD 41.71 +0.27) was down nearly 2.0% earlier following its less than stellar Q4 report but is now positive on the session. DJ30 -5.37 NASDAQ +7.28 SP500 +1.15 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1467/1417/890 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1751/1317/430 mln

11:00 am : The major averages are bouncing off their worst levels but not nearly enough to make a significant change in the standings. Turnarounds in the Financials, Discretionary and Staples sectors, coupled with Technology halving its early losses, are contributing to the market's improved stance.

Oil prices hitting fresh session lows near $57/bbl are finally garnering some attention; but that's due in large part to the Energy sector not subsequently sacrificing much more in the way of leadership. Crude for March delivery, which expires today, is down 3.3% after the D.O.E. recently said the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fill could go to 100,000 barrels/day at a later date through royalty-in-kind deals.DJ30 -34.80 NASDAQ -4.52 SOX -0.7% SP500 -2.93 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1650/1202/744 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1909/1141/338 mln

10:30 am : The indices are still languishing near morning lows as sellers remain an active bunch. On the Dow, 23 out of 30 components are trading lower, led by a 1.4% in General Motors (GM 35.83 -0.51). GM shareholders continue to show their displeasure about continued talk of DaimlerChrysler (DCX 72.62 -0.71) unloading its Chrysler unit.

Intel (INTC 20.94 -0.29) turning in a similarly dismal performance while Home Depot (HD 41.04 -0.40) posting a 28% drop in Q4 profits also offsets Wall-Mart (WMT 49.56 +1.08) issuing Q1 guidance at the high end of expectations. DJ30 -43.18 NASDAQ -10.48 SP500 -4.68 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1767/1006/578 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1968/1008/242 mln

10:00 am : The market is extending its reach to the downside as nine out of 10 sectors are now in negative territory. Energy (-1.1%) is pacing the way as plunging oil prices exacerbate concerns about the sector's earnings potential.

Materials, this year's best performing sector (+8.7%), is also succumbing to some early profit taking. Construction Materials (-1.6%) ranks among today’s biggest laggards as investors question Vulcan Materials' (VMC 110.00 -1.81) $4.6 bln bid for Florida Rock Industries (FRK 66.43 +19.47). Technology is also trading sharply lower as an analyst downgrade on Semiconductor Equipment -- today's worst performing S&P industry group (-1.7%) -- removes some notable leadership. DJ30 -37.81 NASDAQ -11.27 SOX -1.0% SP500 -5.27 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1613/1003/312 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1670/1007/86 mln

[54anickel]

32. IPOs Shun U.S. Exchanges While Wall Street Collects Record Fees

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=aFO7N_Ngeuzc&refer=china

Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- It was the moment they'd all been waiting for. Way up in a New York skyscraper, inside the Times Square headquarters of Morgan Stanley, bankers and brokers were about to learn how their boss, John Mack, would divvy up millions of dollars in bonuses for 2006, the richest year in Wall Street history.

Only Mack wasn't there.

Instead, he was an ocean away on that December day, congratulating his stars in London. In an office overlooking the River Thames, Chief Executive Officer Mack was anointing more than 70 new managing directors in Europe, where revenue has been growing by about 40 percent a year lately, more than double the rate in the U.S.

In this era of superlatives on Wall Street -- record profit, record pay, record mergers -- a chorus of alarm is rising over a tectonic shift within the global securities industry.

President George W. Bush and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson have warned that the U.S. risks losing its edge in the financial world as markets in Europe and Asia grow.

Two studies -- one conducted by McKinsey & Co. for New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and New York Senator Charles Schumer, and another done by a group of executives and academics -- have concluded that excessive regulation is making the U.S. an unattractive place to sell new stocks. (Bloomberg is the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, the parent of Bloomberg News.)

In particular, the reports single out the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002, the antifraud law passed after the debacle at Enron Corp.

more...

[54anickel]

71. A collapse in banking segments is eminent –

A collapse in banking segments is eminent – the effect on the economy, stocks, bonds, dollar, and gold

http://www.indiadaily.com/editorial/15677.asp

The economy is already in the middle of deepening recession, except a dew spot where hyperinflation is causing severe trouble. The healthcare, higher education, energy, and food are the problem areas. The rest of the economy is in deflation.

The meltdown in the financial system can cause massive dislocation in employment. The international trade will come to a halt. The dollar will temporarily collapse, as international players stop capital inflow in dollars. The bonds will first rise and then fall off the cliff. Gold will rise very fast to levels that we never imagined before.

The worst hit will be world stock markets, except US market. Let us explain, why? US stock market is now a tax heaven for the world. The new dividend tax rule eliminating double taxation of the dividend has converted the stock market into financial instruments that allow tax-free or lower taxed income. Consequently, US stock market will act differently that the rest of the world’s stock market. While the stocks all over the world will crash, US stock market will actually rise mimicking the bond market as Federal Reserve lowers the rates.

bit more....

Things that make you go hmmmmmm? :freak:

[54anickel]

37. Is Russia headed for a banking crisis?

http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20070219/60937075.html

snip>

The Central Bank has published statistics on the country's top 30 banks dated January 1, 2007. It shows an increase in consumer loan arrears from 10 billion rubles on January 1, 2006, to almost 33 billion rubles a year later.

This news alone would be enough to shake the Russian banking sector. The next day, however, another piece of news, equally striking if more local, was announced. "Russia's chief collector," Yevgeny Bernshtam, owner of the Sekvoiya agency, was appointed president of Home Credit and Finance, which is viewed as the leader in unpaid consumer loans. According to various sources, its loan arrears equaled 15%-20% of extended loans at the end of 2006, while the average for Russia did not exceed 3%.

The first news raised concerns not only about the growth of arrears, but also about the pace of it. It is the first time the market has seen such a surge, said Yulia Arkhipova, chief analyst with Rus-Rating.

snip>

What will be next? Will the trend be reversed? Experts do not seem to have a definite answer. Anatoly Aksakov, deputy chairman of the State Duma banking committee, says he fears that the share of debt arrears in the consumer loan portfolio of Russian banks may reach "the critical threshold of 7%." "This would mean that actual arrears are at least two times higher and would represent a serious threat of a banking crisis," he emphasized.

Surprisingly, executives of foreign banks' subsidiaries are more optimistic. Philippe Delpal, chairman of the banking committee of the Association of European Businesses in Russia, admitted that the possibility of a non-payment crisis could not be totally ruled out. But, he said, "today, when leading banks are focusing on developing modern scoring models, credit history bureaus are emerging, and the level of clients' education in credit products is growing, we have all the necessary conditions for minimizing risks. So I am positive that there will not be a non-payment crisis in the next three years, first of all due to the Central Bank's policies."

more...

[54anickel]

40. Inflation's non-uniform modus operandi

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/saville/saville022007.html

snip>

In the real world, however, inflation almost always operates in a non-uniform manner in that some prices don't rise at all in response to the inflation whereas other prices experience disproportionately-large increases. Furthermore, the non-uniformity itself is non-uniform in that the prices that are first to move and that move the most in response to inflation during one cycle will often be amongst the latest/slowest movers during the next cycle. At least, this is the way inflation tends to operate prior to the point where confidence in the official currency breaks down completely.

An effect of the above-described non-uniformity is that price signals become confused, leading to the misdirection of investment and, eventually, to a general fall in productivity (businesses respond to price signals as they always do, but they have no way of knowing whether prices are rising due to inflation or due to a real need for greater supply). Another effect is that the link between cause (money supply growth) and effect (a fall in the purchasing power of the money) becomes obscured, resulting in attention being diverted away from the true source of the problem.

The difficulty of seeing the link between cause and effect made possible by the non-uniform way in which the effects of inflation spread through the economy is what makes inflation both sustainable over long periods and desirable -- desirable, that is, from the point of view of those who want the ability to gain votes by making promises that can only be financed via inflation and those who are in a position to financially benefit from the inflation.

As mentioned by Mr van Eeden in the above-linked commentary, the large and growing wealth gap is a consequence of inflation. This is because the people who will generally be in a position to benefit from the inflation -- at least, up until the point where monetary confidence begins to decline at an accelerated pace -- are the ones who are already well-off, whereas those at the lower rungs of the economic ladder will be hit the hardest by the associated declines in productivity and real wages. There's some irony here in that a large chunk of the inflation stems from financing the Welfare State, and yet the very people that the Welfare State purports to help are the ones who tend to be most disadvantaged by inflation. But, of course, there is nothing unusual about the actual effects of a government program being the opposite of the intended effects.

Like many of the problems sharing the same cause, barely one in one-thousand people will correctly view the growing wealth gap as a consequence of the inflationary policies implemented by the central bank and the government. Therefore, to the extent that the wealth gap becomes a political football we should expect that the proposed 'solutions' will involve government programs designed to improve the lots of the groups perceived to be amongst the most disadvantaged; that is, we should expect the proposed solutions to involve more inflation-financed government spending.

more...

[54anickel]

42. V. Putin and the Geopolitics of the New Cold War (Time to just crawl back under the covers - Ack!)

V. Putin and the Geopolitics of the New Cold War:
Or, what happens when Cowboys don't shoot straight like they used to...

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/engdahl/engdahl021907.html

snip>

This time round we are already deep in a New Cold War whose stakes are literally the future of life on this planet. The debacle in Iraq, or the prospect of a US tactical nuclear pre-emptive strike against Iran are ghastly enough. In comparison to what is at play in the US global military buildup against its most formidable remaining global rival, Russia, they loom relatively small. The US military policies since the end of the Soviet Union and emergence of the Republic of Russia in 1991 are in need of close examination in this context. Only then do Putin's frank remarks on February 10 at the Munich Conference on Security make sense.

Because of the misleading accounts of most of Putin's remarks in most western media, it's worth reading in full in English (go to www.securityconference.de for official English translation).

Putin spoke in general terms of Washington's vision of a 'unipolar' world, with 'one center of authority, one center of force, one center of decision-making, calling it a 'world in which there is one master, one sovereign. And at the end of the day this is pernicious not only for all those within this system, but also for the sovereign itself because it destroys itself from within.'

Then the Russian President got to the heart of the matter: 'Today we are witnessing an almost uncontained hyper use of force - military force - in international relations, force that is plunging the world into an abyss of permanent conflicts. As a result we do not have sufficient strength to find a comprehensive solution to any one of these conflicts. Finding a political settlement also becomes impossible.'

Putin continued, 'We are seeing a greater and greater disdain for the basic principles of international law. And independent legal norms are, as a matter of fact, coming increasingly closer to one state's legal system. One state and, of course, first and foremost the United States, has overstepped its national borders in every way. This is visible in the economic, political, cultural and educational policies it imposes on other nations. Well, who likes this? Who is happy about this?'

more...

[Doctor_J]

75. I'd like to credit Pooty-poot for being an expert politico,

and he may well be, but in fact every tinhorn dictator is beating Smirk like a rented mule. Even a little pisspot like Kim thumbs his nose at Il dunce'. Littleboots is not even in the same league at Vlad. If he actually had to have a man-to-man talk with Putin he'd piss his pants right before spewing a string of expletives, after which he'd pass out on the floor mid-vomit.

[AnneD]

81. Hey....

quit hogging the blanket 54anickle. You're going to need a bigger blanket 'cause a lot of folks will be ducking for cover.:spray: Want some :popcorn:

[54anickel]

84. E-gads!!! Doesn't look much safer under there!!!!

[AnneD]

87. OMG...

who stole the shirt off your back and who is this guy...lolraotfpmp. Great art.....

[54anickel]

89. Oh yeah, I didn't notice the missing shirt...my bad. That guy's pretty scary

looking though.

[54anickel]

45. Orlando Musings

http://www.kitco.com/ind/bond/feb202007.html

snip>

But we digress. And this is where the dozen thousand Money Show participants weigh in: they had and they have their choice between flipping houses and burgers under the New World Order, or gathering to themselves real money with which they and their progeny might survive and even prosper, and be respected, as honest traders in the assuredly Dark Times ahead. What will Bush XLIII do next? Will he nuke Iran? Will he extend the Desert Storm tours another 24 or 240 months to further his Crusades? What disaffected citizens is he producing? Will he abolish elections? In light of the lies he and his pals spun to seduce us into the murder of Iraqi and U.S. citizens on foreign soil four years ago, there are no unfair answers to demand of this madman – or to ask of ourselves.

A seminal moment during our brief soirée into Orlando came when a curmudgeonly sort sauntered up to our booth and demanded why, when he sought to retrieve the silver bars he had laid into receipted warehouse storage at this nation's most premiere repository in New Orleans, they could not produce them but, per contract, would happily replace with new bars. They were not deadbeats, this New Orleans outfit. They would honour the contract. He would get bars of equal value. “Why cannot I get my own silver back from your storage?” he asked.

“We leased your silver,” they told him. His bars were gone. That was his story to us.
And then along comes, just Sunday, a missive from Bill Murphy of GATA and LeMetropole Cafe, alerting us to an article by Tom Lauricella, dipping out of the Wall Street Journal (not to be confused with the Wallace Street Journal) to the effect that Barclays ETFs, which make owning silver so painless and easy, may have a more nefarious agenda: turns out the reason that their ETF schemes are so inexpensive and transparent is that there's a back-door to the money. Says Lauricella, “Another aspect of its business that is less well-known to ETF investors: Barclays actively engages in securities lending -- loaning out the stocks and bonds in its iShares ETF portfolios. The loans are highly lucrative, bringing in millions of dollars a year for Barclays in addition to the fees it gets for managing the funds.”

In other words, there's just a niggling chance that the silver Barclays claims to be holding on your behalf may already be leased to somebody else. May already have ceased to exist. But because you are so confident in your investment in iShares, you'll not demand delivery of the physical because you are so far just enjoying the ride. After all, why would a bank lie to you? And this is the nut of a Ponzi scheme: as long as only a few make physical demand, the game continueth. Ponzi schemes unravel not because of their size, but because they run out of trusting players.

[54anickel]

47. 2:18 update

Dow 12,779.75 12.18 (0.10%)
Nasdaq 2,509.72 13.41 (0.54%)
S&P 500 1,458.65 3.11 (0.21%)
10-yr Bond 4.69% 0.00
30-yr Bond 4.7870% 0.0010
NYSE Volume 1,575,121,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,604,953,000

2:00 pm : After briefly slipping into the red, the Dow is back above the flat line, but barely, as the indices remain mired in relatively narrow ranges for the most part.

The market's holding pattern has been further evidenced in the A/D line, as advancers on the NYSE still hold the same 18-to-13 edge they've had over decliners all afternoon. The Nasdaq, too, still holds the same 18-to-11 margin since sentiment turned the corner around 11:30 this morning. Plunging oil prices have been a catalyst behind today's follow-through efforts; but crude for March delivery has been stuck in a rather tight range as well. DJ30 +2.65 NASDAQ +8.99 SP500 +1.58 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1149/1851/1.55 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1357/1882/798 mn

1:30 pm : The major averages continue to trade in positive territory, but the Dow is now clinging to a paltry gain as some modest selling pressure takes some steam out of blue chips.

Albeit showing some good resilience in the wake of such a strong performance last week (+1.5%), it's not surprising to see the nervousness on the part of buyers return as the price-weighted index in record territory leaves many questioning the sustainability of current valuations.DJ30 +0.40 NASDAQ +8.44 SP500 +1.33 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1123/1881/1.45 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1337/1883/732 mln

1:00 pm : Range-bound trading persists in stocks as buying remains widespread across most areas. The Materials sector, however, has recently joined Energy to the downside. Be that as it may, since Materials also ranks as the least influential of the 10 S&P 500 sectors; it's recent downturn has barely been noticed.

A rebound in the greenback ahead of Wednesday's rate decision by the Bank of Japan is making dollar-denominated assets such as Gold (-1.1%) and Steel (-0.8%) -- two of this year's best performing S&P industry groups -- less attractive. DJ30 +12.18 NASDAQ +10.89 SP500 +2.50 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1107/1881/1.36 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1305/1875/684 mln

12:30 pm : No real change in the proceedings as the afternoon session gets underway. Buyers remain in control of the action as nine out of 10 sectors are now in positive territory.

The Dow is holding steady at new intraday record highs. However, only 17 out of 30 components posting gains underscores why it isn't turning in an even better performance and why some investors remain hesitant following the blue-chip index's best weekly performance in three months. DJ30 +16.01 NASDAQ +11.01 SP500 +3.09 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1106/1863/1.20 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1301/1882/622 mln

[citizen snips]

48. Dow, Nasdaq Jump in Midafternoon Trading

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street wobbled through an uncertain session Tuesday as investors shrugged off disappointment over Home Depot Inc.'s declining sales and found little inspiration from a Federal Reserve governor's encouraging assessment of the housing market.

The declining price of oil gave some support to stocks, but even that failed to give the market a substantial boost.

Home Depot, the world's largest home improvement retailer, said sales at its stores open more than a year dropped in the fourth quarter, indicating that consumers' appetite for home improvement goods is still dwindling due to the sluggish housing market. Wal-Mart Stores Inc.'s lower-than-expected revenue also added to worries that Americans aren't buying as much as investors previously thought.

Comments from outgoing Fed Governor Susan Bies, who said the country may be seeing a bottom in slumping demand for housing, alleviated some concerns that the downturn will drag down the rest of the economy. Her remarks echoed those of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke last week, who predicted that the economy will keep growing at a modest pace.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070220/wall_street.html?.v=23

[citizen snips]

49. The Home Depot 4Q Profit Drops 28 Pct

ATLANTA (AP) -- As The Home Depot Inc. reported a 28 percent drop in fourth-quarter profit on Tuesday, its chief executive told analysts something they've heard before: The company plans to focus more on its retail stores and improve customer service.

But this time, new CEO Frank Blake was mum on how he planned to achieve those goals, and the company did not provide guidance for 2007. Blake said he was withholding answers to those questions until Home Depot's investor conference next week.

He did promise that things will be different under his watch compared to that of his predecessor, Bob Nardelli, who resigned in early January amid a furor over his hefty pay and Home Depot's lagging stock price.

Home Depot shares fell Tuesday, and they are up only slightly since the close of trading on the day Nardelli's departure was announced.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070220/earns_home_depot.html?.v=5

[citizen snips]

50. Shares of Expeditors, C.H. Robinson Rise

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Expeditors International of Washington Inc. and C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc. traded higher on Tuesday after an analyst upgraded the freight forwarders, saying they stand to benefit from potential growth in freight demand.

Shares of Seattle-based Expeditors International advanced $1.20, or 2.7 percent, to $46.30 in afternoon trading on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange. Earlier in the session, the stock traded as high as $46.51, or 3.1 percent higher than its previous close of $45.10. The stock has traded in a 52-week range of $37.36 to $58.32.

Adam Hylan, an analyst at HSBC Securities, upgraded Expeditors International to "Overweight" from "Neutral" and raised his price target to $51 from $48. Hylan said the stock now trades in line with its five-year average.

"Expeditors is still expensive in absolute terms, but its focused business model and Asian scale make it best-placed to benefit from an improved U.S. economy and continued structural growth in international freight," the analyst said in a note to clients on Tuesday.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070220/expeditors_ch_robinson_mover.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

51. Sector Snap: Semiconductor Equipment

NEW YORK (AP) -- Chip equipment stocks got nudged down in Tuesday's trading after a Credit Suisse analyst cut his rating on the semiconductor equipment sector based on concerns about weak spending from computer memory makers due to deteriorating margins.

More specifically, Credit Suisse analyst Satya Kumar cut ratings on Varian Semiconductor Equipment Associates Inc. and Lam Research Corp.

Varian was lowered to an "Underperform" rating based on concerns that memory makers may cut orders by 50 percent or more. Kumar also suggested that upside potential is already priced into the stock.

The analyst cut Lam Research to "Neutral" and opined that estimates for the company would be cut in the second half of the year.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070220/chip_equipment_sector_snap.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

52. Sector Snap: Gold Shares Stumble

NEW YORK (AP) -- Gold miners' shares tumbled Tuesday as the prices of gold and silver lost ground in the metals market.

James Steel, an analyst at HSBC, said the gold market traded at lower-than-normal volume on Tuesday, with many buyers in Asia absent from trading amid New Year celebrations. On weak-volume days, "a small amount of buying or selling can have an exaggerated impact," he said.

An ounce of gold for April delivery fell $12.70 before the close to $661.60 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Nymex silver for March delivery dipped 19.5 cents to $13.82 an ounce, while March copper lost 4.35 cents to about $2.60 a pound.

Shares of Barrick Gold Corp. dropped 50 cents to $30.79 in afternoon trading on the New York Stock Exchange. Newmont Mining Corp. shares fell 38 cents to $45.88, while shares of AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. gave up $1.06, or 2.2 percent, to $46.19 on the Big Board.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070220/metals_sector_snap.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

53. Sector Snap: Retailers Climb

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of numerous retailers rose in afternoon trading after Wal-Mart Stores Inc. reported a higher fourth-quarter profit that beat analyst estimates, and investors anticipated the release of fourth-quarter results from other retailers.

The Standard & Poor's Retail Index, which comprises department stores, drugstores, home improvement and auto chains, rose 5.99 to 537.98 in afternoon trading.

The Dow Jones broadline retailers index also rose 4.21 to 400.69.

Zacks analyst Rob Plaza said that while most companies have already reported fourth quarter results, retailers are just getting started because many end their fiscal year in January. Plaza also noted the fourth quarter is the most important for retailers, since they make a bulk of their profits during the holiday shopping season.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070220/retailers_sector_snap.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

54. Sector Snap: Construction Aggregates

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of construction aggregate makers got a boost Tuesday after Florida Rock Industries Inc. agreed to sell itself to Vulcan Materials Corp., with several companies hitting long-term highs.

Birmingham, Ala.-based Vulcan is already the largest aggregates producer in the U.S., and if the $4.6 billion deal receives regulatory approval, Vulcan would be 50 percent larger than its nearest competitor.

Aggregates include rock, sand and gravel used in highway construction and asphalt production.

Goldman Sachs analyst Jack Kelly called the purchase a "smart strategic move," saying it continues a trend toward consolidation in the sector.

Florida Rock climbed to a new annual high of $66.99 on the New York Stock Exchange, and was trading up nearly 42 percent at $66.61 in the afternoon.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070220/construction_aggregates_sector_snap.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

55. Wal-Mart 4Q Profit Up 9.8 Pct. to $3.94B

Cost-cutting measures and robust international growth helped Wal-Mart Stores Inc. increase fourth-quarter profits by a better-than-expected 9.8 percent, overcoming modest sales gains at its namesake U.S. discount division.

During a pre-recorded conference call for investors, Lee Scott, president and CEO of Wal-Mart said Tuesday that the company's U.S. stores benefited from its new labor rescheduling programs and from its tighter inventory controls. Scott also pledged that Wal-Mart will continue to push low prices.

"I believe in the strategic plan that is guiding our U.S. stores," Scott said.

Wal-Mart Stores said profit for the period ending Jan. 31 was $3.94 billion, or 95 cents per share, up from $3.59 billion, or 87 cents, from one year prior. Even with a $98 million tax benefit worth 2 cents per share, Wal-Mart's earnings beat the 90 cents per share forecast by analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070220/earns_wal_mart.html?.v=17

[citizen snips]

56. Polo Ralph Lauren Shares Hit High

NEW YORK (AP) -- Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. on Tuesday hit a 52-week high after the apparel licenser and maker signed a deal with department store chain Kohl's Corp. to create Chaps Home collection in May 2007.

Polo Ralph Lauren will design and develop the products, while Kohl's will make them. They will market the line together.

Kohl's of Menomonee Falls, Wis., already sells Chaps men's sportswear and women's sportswear.

The launch of Chaps Home will feature five fashion bedding collections and solid colored sheets, towels and bath rugs.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070220/polo_ralph_lauren_mover.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

57. JetBlue Shares Fall Most in 7 Months on Flight Delays

Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- JetBlue Airways Corp. shares fell the most in seven months after a winter storm stranded thousands of passengers and Chief Executive Officer David Neeleman said the crisis may cost the company $30 million.

Neeleman apologized to consumers and said JetBlue will implement a ``Customer Bill of Rights'' with compensation payments and procedures to prevent a repeat. The Feb. 14 storm left hundreds aboard planes as long as 10 hours and caused more than 1,000 flight cancellations.

The storm's financial impact, combined with the worst scheduling disruptions in the seven-year-old-carrier's history, could further damage its image with investors, and set back efforts to recover from two consecutive annual losses.

``This was a big wake-up call for JetBlue,'' Neeleman said in a statement. ``If there's a silver lining, it is the fact that our airline is going to be stronger and even better prepared to serve our customers.''

more...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a4IwbtNs85Uc&refer=home

[citizen snips]

59. Ford, in `Meltdown,' May Seek Wage Cut, Analyst

Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Ford Motor Co. is in a ``meltdown'' and may ask the United Auto Workers union to accept reduced pay and benefits during this year's contract talks, a labor economist said.

Ford may seek union backing for a plan to cut wages and benefits by 20 percent, said Sean McAlinden, an analyst at the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Michigan. That could lower costs by $1.4 billion annually for four years, McAlinden estimated.

Ford Chief Executive Officer Alan Mulally on Jan. 3 said he would ask the union's help in strengthening the company. Ford, the world's third-largest automaker, lost a record $12.7 billion last year on plunging sales of pickups and sport-utility vehicles. The company's UAW contract expires Sept. 14.

``If Ford's market share falls to 10 or 12 percent by this summer, and if they start to burn cash at twice the rate they've planned, something will have to be done,'' McAlinden said at a labor-relations seminar in Ypsilanti, Michigan. ``We're really, really worried about Ford.''

more...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=atrA2mFsorNI&refer=home

[54anickel]

72. White-collar buyouts overwhelm Ford

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2738532

DEARBORN - Ford Motor Co.'s buyout plan drew an overwhelming response from white-collar employees in some parts of the company, prompting the automaker to begin saying no to some offers.

Employees who thought they had buyout deals were shocked and angry after learning that the offers were being pulled, some Ford workers said.

snip>

"They got more retirements than they bargained for," a longtime Ford engineer said. He and others asked that their names not be printed for fear of retribution.

Ford spokeswoman Marcey Evans would not confirm whether buyouts were withdrawn, but said the moves were possible if some areas of the company "received more acceptances than they were able to accommodate."

bit more....http://www.lsj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070220/NEWS03/702200357

[AnneD]

85. Good for the workers...

The company sees them as an expense anyway...let those over paid CEO's try to make the cars and run the company without workers. Let's see how high the stocks go up then? The Worker's aren't Fords problem...it's the management.

[citizen snips]

60. Supreme Court Limits Punitive Awards, Backs Altria

Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Supreme Court tightened the constitutional limits on punitive damages, setting aside a $79.5 million award in a smoker case against Altria Group Inc.'s Philip Morris USA unit.

The justices, voting 5-4 in the case of an Oregon man who died of lung cancer, said a lower court improperly let jurors punish Philip Morris for the health problems of other smokers.

``To permit punishment for injuring a non-party victim would add a near standardless dimension to the punitive damages question,'' Justice Stephen Breyer wrote for the court.

The decision gives new ammunition to frequent targets of product-liability suits, including Merck & Co., which faces as many as 40,000 claims over its withdrawn Vioxx painkiller, and Ford Motor Co., whose Explorer sport-utility vehicle has spawned hundreds of claims over rollover accidents. The Supreme Court had never before considered a punitive award in a health or personal- injury case.

more...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a.XIFWwNpXJs&refer=home

[citizen snips]

61. Treasuries Little Changed as 3-Week Rally Stalls Before Auction

Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries were little changed as benchmark 10-year note yields nearing a five-week low failed to attract buyers.

The rally that pushed yields down the past three weeks stalled as economists expected a government report on consumer prices tomorrow to show the biggest increase in items excluding food and energy in four months. Monthly auctions of two- and five-year notes starting tomorrow also curbed demand.

``Without any new data that's going to help Treasuries go higher, we're going to chop around in this range,'' said Sean Murphy, a trader in New York at RBC Capital Markets, the investment-banking arm of Canada's biggest lender.

The 10-year note's yield fell less than 1 basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 4.68 percent at 2:15 p.m. in New York, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The price of the 4 5/8 percent note due in February 2017 rose 1/32, or 31 cents per $1,000 face amount, to 99 17/32.

more...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=aoke_CiishUw&refer=bond

[citizen snips]

62. Gold Falls as Rising Dollar Erodes Metal's Investment Appeal

Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Gold fell the most in six weeks in New York as a rising dollar made the precious metal a less attractive investment.

The U.S. dollar is rebounding after three straight weekly declines against a basket of six major currencies. Before today, gold had climbed 11 percent since Jan. 5.

``The dollar firmed up and that sparked some weakness in the gold,'' said Frank McGhee, head metals trader at Integrated Brokerage Services LLC in Chicago.

Gold futures for April delivery fell $11.80, or 1.8 percent, to $661 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest drop for a most-active contract since Jan. 5. Prices were little changed last week.

more...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=aR8.prALzvzk&refer=commodities

[citizen snips]

64. Sector Snap: Online Shopping

NEW YORK (AP) -- Amazon.com Inc. shares climbed on Tuesday following an upbeat report on consumer satisfaction among U.S. Internet shoppers from the University of Michigan.

Americans' satisfaction with e-commerce -- including online retail, travel, auctions and brokerages -- improved for the second year in a row, scoring 80 on a 100-point scale. The score was less than a percentage point away from its all-time high, reached in 2003.

The University of Michigan's American Customer Satisfaction Index, updated each quarter, ranks about 200 companies in 43 industries, asking customers to evaluate the products and services they bought.

Overall customer satisfaction rose 2 percent from a year earlier to 74.9, the highest score since its start in 1994.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070220/internet_sector_snap.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

65. Volvo Bids $1 Billion for Nissan Diesel

STOCKHOLM (AP) -- Truckmaker AB Volvo offered to buy Japan's Nissan Diesel for 7.5 billion kronor ($1.1 billion) in a deal to boost its presence in Asia and prepare for tougher emissions standards.

Tuesday's bid by the world's second-largest truck maker was the latest consolidation attempt in the industry, where Germany's MAN AG recently tried but failed to buy Swedish company Scania AB.

Volvo's offer, which needs regulatory approval, will give it full ownership of Nissan Diesel from the current 19 percent. It highlights Volvo's ambitions in Asia, where the company has lacked a local brand while owning Mack Trucks in the U.S. and Renault Trucks in Europe.

Chief Executive Leif Johansson said Volvo sped up the takeover plans to prepare for tougher emissions standards being introduced in Japan in 2010.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070220/japan_volvo_nissan_diesel.html?.v=12

[54anickel]

66. Refugee crisis looms for Iraq's neighbors

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/4563440.html

snip>

The countries surrounding Iraq have been inundated with hundreds of thousands of people fleeing the sectarian warfare, with Jordan and Syria bearing the brunt. There is a growing recognition that a refugee crisis of alarming proportions is unfolding as Iraq descends into anarchy.

Roughly 1 million Iraqis are likely to abandon their country in the next 12 months if the country doesn't stabilize, the Geneva-based International Organization of Migration predicted. U.S. officials announced a new plan last week to take in 7,000 Iraqis and urged other countries to accept more refugees.

Jordanian officials warn that their country, a staunch U.S. ally, cannot absorb more Iraqis without receiving help from wealthy nations. Border controls have been tightened to slow the daily influx of frightened Iraqis.

Officials estimate that between 500,000 and 750,000 Iraqis are in Jordan, most of them without proper documents.

"Their main problem is the lack of legal residency status, which means they don't have access to education or health care and they can't work legally," said Robert Breen, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees representative here.

snip>

Other minorities from Iraq, including many Christians, have sought haven in Jordan, as have many Muslims caught in the violent power struggle between Shiites and Sunnis.

The Mecca Mall, set in a part of Amman filled with new million-dollar villas, has become a gathering spot for many displaced Iraqis.

Wealthy Sunnis who enjoyed a privileged life under Saddam trade rumors with Turkmen who ran successful businesses, Christians who faced persecution after the regime fell and Shiites who fled when sectarian fighting worsened.

Many were part of an educated, professional class that is leaving Baghdad because of repeated threats, said Raja Mohammed.

more...

[AnneD]

88. It will destabilize the entire region.....

kinda hard to run a democracy with out a public, esp an educated middle class.....oh wait, silly me. That is the only type of 'democracy' this administration know how to handle. Anyone for Freedom Fries?

[citizen snips]

70. Credit Suisse Analyst Cuts Food Sector

NEW YORK (AP) -- A Credit Suisse analyst cut his rating on shares of large cap food companies Tuesday, saying higher costs will pressure margins.

Analyst Alex Molloy downgraded the sector -- which includes French dairy and water company Groupe Danone, British and French chocolate makers Cadbury Schweppes PLC and Nestle SA and U.K.-based food and personal care products maker Unilever NV -- to "Market Weight" from "Overweight."

In a note to investors, Molloy said although he expects the companies will report revenue growth of more than 5 percent, they will all face margin pressures from higher costs, specifically for agricultural commodities such as grain and milk.

"Every January since 2004 we have sat wondering if raw material price increases would level off -- 2007 is unlikely to be the year as the massive rise in 'agricultural commodities'... will more than offset the (very!) well-documented fall in the oil price," he wrote.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070220/food_sector_analyst_note.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

73. Grains Fall, Soybeans Rise

CHICAGO (AP) -- Grain futures retreated and soybeans advanced Tuesday on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Wheat for March delivery fell 3 1/2 cents to $4.64 1/2 a bushel; March corn fell 1 3/4 cent to $4.15 1/4 a bushel; March oats fell 1 cent to $2.41 1/2 a bushel; March soybeans rose 4 cents to $7.71 a bushel.

Beef and pork futures declined on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

April live cattle fell 1.20 cent to 95.35 cents a pound; March feeder cattle fell .55 cent to 99.62 cents a pound; April lean hogs fell 1.65 cent to 66.85 cents a pound; March pork bellies fell 1.55 cent to $1.0150 a pound.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070220/board_of_trade.html?.v=4

[citizen snips]

74. Sector Snap: Airline Stocks Rise

NEW YORK (AP) -- Airline stocks mostly rose Tuesday, aided by easing crude oil prices, while JetBlue Airways Corp.'s shares tumbled on an analyst downgrade.

The Amex Airline Index rose two-thirds of 1 percent, split among nine gainers and two decliners. Most percentage swings were slight, less than 2 percent.

Helping shares was a barrel of oil falling $1.32 to $58.07 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, amid forecasts for warmer weather and lower heating-fuel demand in the U.S. Northeast. Jet fuel is one of an airline's top costs.

The top percentage gainer in the index was regional carrier Mesa Air Group Inc., which rose 20 cents, or 2.6 percent, to $8.04 on the Nasdaq Stock Market.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070220/airlines_sector_snap.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

76. S&P 500 Leaders & Laggards: WMT, APC

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wal-Mart Stores Inc. led the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to a higher finish on Tuesday after the Bentonville, Ark., company reported a sharply higher fourth-quarter profit.

Shares of the world's largest retailer rose $1.78, or 3.7 percent, to close at $50.26 on the New York Stock Exchange.

The S&P 500 index was up 4.14, to end at 1,459.68.

Electronic Arts Inc. also finished higher after a report in Barron's magazine said the recent launch of three video game consoles will lift the video game publisher's sales. Shares of the Redwood City, Calif., company rose $1.79, or 3.6 percent, to $51.80 on the Nasdaq.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070220/apfn_s_p_laggards.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

77. Nasdaq 100 Leaders & Laggards: XMSR LRCX

NEW YORK (AP) -- A proposed merger of XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. and Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. lifted the Nasdaq 100 to a higher finish on Tuesday.

The Nasdaq 100 rose 12.22 to 1,833.71. The broader Nasdaq composite advanced 16.73 to 2,513.04.

XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. climbed $1.43, or 10.2 percent, to close at $15.41, while Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. added 22 cents, or 6 percent, to finish at $3.92.

Joy Global Inc., which makes mining equipment, rose $2.36, or 4.9 percent, to $50.13.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070220/nasdaq_100_laggards_close.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

78. Tobacco Stocks Mixed on Court Ruling

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street was unmoved Tuesday after the U.S. Supreme Court threw out a verdict and $79.5 million punitive damage award against Philip Morris USA but left Big Tobacco companies still vulnerable to large jury awards in cigarette litigation.

Philip Morris, a unit of Altria Group Inc. that makes Marlboro, Parliament and Benson & Hedges cigarettes, had challenged the award made by an Oregon jury to the widow of a smoker who died of lung cancer. While the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 to overturn the verdict and award because of improper jury instructions, it didn't give Philip Morris or tobacco shareholders a hoped-for ruling, that the size of the award was constitutionally excessive.

"They answered one question, but not the big question," said Standard & Poor's analyst Raymond Mathis. "It's a big win for tobacco, but not as decisive a win as the industry might have hoped."

The punitive damages, or damages punishing the company's behavior, were 97 times the damages awarded to the widow for her suffering. At issue in the case was how closely punitive damages must match the harm suffered by the plaintiff.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070220/tobacco_ruling_impact.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

80. DJIA Leaders & Laggards: WMT, GM

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wal-Mart Stores Inc. finished higher Tuesday, lifting the Dow Jones Industrial Average after reporting better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings.

The index was up 19.07 to end at 12,786.64.

Shares of the world's biggest retailer rose $1.78, or 3.7 percent, to end at $50.26 on the New York Stock Exchange.

Fast-food chain McDonald's Corp. hit a seven-year peak of $45.90 on the NYSE, and finished up 48 cents at $45.80.

Hewlett-Packard Co. rose 36 cents to close at $43.13 on the Big Board as investors anticipated the computer and printer maker's fiscal first-quarter results after the closing bell.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070220/apfn_djia_laggards.html?.v=1

[54anickel]

82. And the big close.....

Dow 12,786.64 19.07 (0.15%)
Nasdaq 2,513.04 16.73 (0.67%)
S&P 500 1,459.68 4.14 (0.28%)
10-yr Bond 4.68% 0.01
30-yr Bond 4.7800% 0.0080
NYSE Volume 2,337,741,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,225,977,000

4:20 pm : What was initially shaping up to be a logical pullback, given last week's sizable market gains and the growing realization that earnings growth is decelerating, ended up turning into another victory for the bulls.

While there wasn't overwhelming evidence Tuesday to justify follow-through buying efforts, especially with the Dow fresh off its 30th record close since October and turning in its best weekly performance (+1.5%) in three months, investors eventually rallied around some M&A news, another decline in oil, and an upbeat outlook from Wal-Mart (WMT 50.16 +1.68).

The Dow component surged 3.5% after posting record Q4 sales and earnings and then forecasting Q1 profits at the high end of expectations. Wal-Mart's gain helped to offset a less than stellar year-end earnings report from Home Depot (HD 41.29 -0.15).

Also helping the blue-chip index close at a historic high for the fourth straight session was a new all-time high on McDonald's (MCD 45.84 +0.52) and a 1% advance from Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 43.21 +0.44) heading into its Q1 report after the close.

Among the eight sectors finishing in positive territory, Consumer Discretionary (+0.7%) turned in the best performance. Retailers (RLX +1.0%), benefiting from Wal-Mart's upbeat outlook as well as Target (TGT 64.30 +1.39) surging 2.2% after backing February comps growth of 4-6%, also got a boost from lower oil prices.

Crude for March delivery, which expired today, fell 2.2% to $58.07/bbl amid speculation warm weather forecasts will curb demand for heating oil. Crude for April delivery, the new front-month contract, fell 1.7% to $58.85/bbl.

As evidenced by the AMEX Securities Broker / Dealer Index closing sharply higher and near record levels, some M&A news also made the rounds Wednesday. Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI 3.92 +0.22) and XM Satellite Radio (XMSR 15.41 +1.43) hooking up in an $11.4 bln "merger of equals" was the biggest announcement. Even though such a deal faces significant regulatory hurdles, the two companies soared on the news and combined to account for roughly one sixth of the total volume on the Nasdaq. DJ30 +19.07 DJTA +0.8% DJUA 0.5% DOT +0.6% NASDAQ +16.73 NQ100 +0.7% R2K +1.0% SOX +0.3% SP400 +0.7% SP500 +4.14 XOI -0.8% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1075/2011/2.15 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1296/2012/1.24 bln

3:30 pm : The market is showing no signs of slowing going into the close as a renewed wave of buying inches the Dow to its best levels ever. Faring even better than blue chips, but also at historic highs, are small and mid-cap stocks.

The Russell 2000 is up more than 1.0% while the S&P 400 MidCap Index is up 0.7% as momentum continues to favor the bulls heading into the final stretch. DJ30 +23.07 NASDAQ +16.16 R2K +1.1% SP400 +0.7% SP500 +4.38 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1042/2012/1.89 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1224/2059/1.03 bln

3:00 pm : Equities are still on the offensive as buying remains widespread across most areas. Consumer Discretionary (+0.7%) still paces the way higher among the nine sectors in positive territory as retailers (RLX +1.0%) continue to benefit from Wal-Mart's (WMT 49.94 +1.46) upbeat outlook and, in part, from lower oil prices.

Crude for March delivery, which just expired, closed down 2.2% at $58.07/bbl; the new front-month April contract finished down 1.7% at $58.85/bbl. Also benefiting from lower oil has been The Dow Jones Transportation Average which is at a new all-time high.
DJ30 +14.66 NASDAQ +14.22 SP500 +3.14 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1111/1934/1.74 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1310/1961/936 mln

2:30 pm : More of the same for stocks as the Nasdaq continues to enjoy the bulk of today's buying efforts. As was the case last month, when the tech-heavy Composite outperformed the Dow, S&P 500 and even the Russell 2000 to the upside, the Nasdaq is on pace to match January's 2.0% advance with more than one week of trading left in the month of February.

Not surprising, Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI 3.95 +0.25) and XM Satellite Radio (XMSR 15.80 +1.82), which agreed to combine in a "merger of equals," are the best performers on the Nasdaq 100 posting respective gains of 6.8% and 13%. DJ30 +12.50 NASDAQ +13.53 SP500 +3.10 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1120/1900/1.67 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1334/1915/880 mln

[54anickel]

83. Stocks Rise on Fed Official's Comments

Stocks Turn Higher After Fed Official's Comments Help Investors Shrug Off Home Depot Earnings

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070220/wall_street.html?.v=29

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street managed a moderate advance in an uneven session Tuesday after a drop in oil prices and encouraging comments from a Federal Reserve official allowed investors to shrug off disappointment over Home Depot Inc.'s declining sales. The Dow Jones industrials set another closing high.

Home Depot, the world's largest home improvement retailer, said sales at stores open more than a year dropped in the fourth quarter, suggesting that consumers' appetite for home improvement goods is still dwindling due to the sluggish housing market.

The company's results sent the market down in early trading. But comments from outgoing Fed Governor Susan Bies, who said slumping demand for housing may have bottomed out, alleviated some concerns about the downturn dragging down the rest of the economy. Her remarks echoed those of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke last week, who predicted that the economy will keep growing at a modest pace.

"The overall trend of the market is basically positive," said Brian Gendreau, investment strategist for ING Investment Management, pointing to Bernanke's recent forecast of moderating growth and cooling inflation. "That's a great environment for equities. Unless you have some specifically nasty news, there's no reason why the trend shouldn't be upward."

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