WP: In R.I., a Model for Voter Turnout (... Strategy May Give GOP an Edge)

[Pirate Smile]

In R.I., a Model for Voter Turnout
Employing Senate Primary Strategy May Give GOP an Edge

By Jim VandeHei and Chris Cillizza
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, September 14, 2006; Page A23

The turnout campaign that Republican operatives used to help pull Sen. Lincoln D. Chafee to victory in the Rhode Island primary was a potent demonstration of how money and manpower can transform a race even amid an unfavorable political environment -- and a preview of the strategy that national party officials say they plan to replicate in the most competitive House and Senate races over the next 55 days.

In the past two national elections, in 2002 and 2004, Republicans outperformed Democrats in bringing their backers to the polls, but many Democrats and independent analysts have suggested that the competition may be different this year, in part because of slumping morale among GOP activists. But Chafee's performance -- combined with reports of late-starting organization and internal bickering on the Democratic side -- suggest that the Republican advantage on turnout may remain intact even as many other trends are favoring the opposition.

The Republican National Committee, convinced that Chafee is the party's only chance of keeping a seat in a Democratic-leaning state, spent $400,000 to ship 86 out-of-state volunteers and several paid staff members to Rhode Island. They targeted not just Republicans but also independent voters during the final days of the campaign, following a blueprint developed months ago by the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Chafee campaign.

The effort helped Chafee survive a spirited challenge from Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey by boosting primary turnout to an all-time high. In June, GOP leaders used a similar turnout program to help lobbyist Brian Bilbray win a special California election for the House seat vacated by indicted GOP Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/13/AR2006091302254.html

This is why we need to be working our asses off no matter what the polls say.

From the article: "Their turnout operation is exquisite," a senior Democratic strategist said. "We are not going to match them."

[journalist3072]

1. Here's what I want to know

Chaffey hasn't always towed his Party's line, and in this case, that's more than fine with me.

But in spite of his bucking Bush on some issues, the White House put its full weight behind him. And I want to know: was there a quid pro quo? I want to know if Chaffey promised to support Bush on certain controversial issues, in exchange for the support he received from the WH?

[Pirate Smile]

4. Chaffee is a vote for a Republican controlled Senate. That is the only

vote they care about or could possibly consider getting since this is Rhode Island - the most Democratic state in the country. Whatever else Chaffee does is irrelevant. It is better then the Democratic alternative in the WH's POV.

[Tellurian]

13. The entire article is Republican propaganda...don't believe a word of it!

The word around all day yesterday was if Laffey wins, the GOP will throw in the towel!

There was no strategy in place by the GOP. Sure they gave Chafee support for advertising space
but the one and only reason for Chafee's success, was who he is and what he stands for:
A LIBERAL REPUBLICAN

The GOP hasn't an iota of street cred in R.I...In fact, yesterday, adding to their plans
should Laffey WIN, they announced they're pulling up stakes to vamoose out of the state altogether.

That article is utter hogwash...

The GOP claiming some meteoric strategy by riding on Chafee's coat tails.

In a (Re)pig's eye.

[FogerRox]

21. Excellent point Tellurian

The Repubs need Chaffee to let the Bolton nomination out of COmmitee, so they tried to bargin ....... by supporting the campaign.In fact during these primaries I have seen a pattern. Low turn out for extreme right wing candidates, going back to Ralph Reed lossing the Primary for LT Gov in .. IIRC Georgia. There have been more examples of low "R" turnout in this yrs primaries. Kathern Hariis won the FL Primary with turnout of 15%, a record low.

And the DEMS are frothing at the mouth, waiting since 2000 to set things straight, DEMs are pissed & ready to vote big time.

[Tellurian]

26. I doubt Chafee will change his mind..

The Repugs are trying to make him feel obligated for his Primary win..
Not going to happen..

I posted this in GD this morning:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x2133261

[niceypoo]

24. Putting on a brave face...

...their election hopes look pretty pisspoor nationwide...

[Tellurian]

28. We'll see what the RI Board of Canvassers has to say.

about the final outcome of "disappearing disaffiliation forms"..
and other irregularities during the Primary..

[BattyDem]

2. This is what we've told them Dems to do all along

STOP trying to go after the RW votes because you'll never get them. It's a waste of time and money. Pandering to them alienates your base, which will cause you to LOSE votes. GO AFTER THE INDEPENDENTS!!! :grr:

[bullimiami]

3. does anyone else think that this is going to piss off some rw diehards.

imagine how we would feel if the dnc pulled out the stops and got lieberman elected over lamont.

[truedelphi]

7. They couldn't pull out the stops - Lamont was too popular

The strategy only works if the people have not made up their minds
on who they want.

In Californai, voters made up their minds to get out the vote for Debra Bowen
for Secretary of State over the other candidate, and despite the other candidate
having full MSM support, Bowen won. Largely due to internet and Air America, me thnks

[napi21]

8. I don't think so. My guess is most Pubs say "Do whatever you have to do

to keep the Pubs in power!"

If you really think about it, if the Dems were in power now, and you thought Leibermanwas the best shot at retaining that power, wouldn't you be ok with what ever the Party did to help him win?

[WCGreen]

5. One huge item not mentioned....

It was a very low turnout...

A low turnout always helps the incumbent...

Beside that, they were only interested in energizing their base...

The general will be totally different although I still think it will all come down to who gets their base out...

[Pirate Smile]

9. "The effort helped ... by boosting primary turnout to an all-time high."

The Rhode Island effort offered a window into how a mobilization program unfolds.
About six months ago, the National Republican Senatorial Committee sat down with the Chafee campaign to construct a voter-turnout program. Weekly phone calls followed and a number of NRSC senior staffers -- including political director Blaise Hazelwood -- made regular trips to the state to ensure the structure was being built. They identified potential Chafee voters and pressed Democrats to change their party identification to "unaffiliated," a move that would allow them to vote in the Republican primary.

As the campaign wore on, Republicans began another slew of phone calls to unaffiliated voters to tell them that they could vote for Chafee and then immediately change their registration back to unaffiliated or Democrat. The RNC road-tested a new technology in the race that officials said is making their targeting program faster and more precise. It is based on a program that allows volunteers to call potential voters, note their political views and preferences on sheet of paper and immediately scan the results into a huge database known as the Voter Vault. Experts in the political practice known as microtargeting can then instantly analyze the results to determine which issues are moving voters and adjust their pitch.

All told, the Chafee campaign spent $500,000 on the effort, while the Republican National Committee chipped in an additional $400,000. The NRSC spent $1.2 million on the race -- primarily on an extended television campaign that attacked Laffey. Heading into the final day, Chafee said he had "deep apprehensions" about his ability to win.
Bill Lynch, chairman of the Rhode Island Democratic Party, said the turnout numbers are worrisome. "It will make for an interesting couple of months," he said.

[w4rma]

12. Heh. Proof that any Democrat or left-leaning indy who voted Chafee is a

sucker.

[Pirate Smile]

16. I'm in a district with one of the "decent" Republicans - Jim Leach.

It should be a Democrat - we are blue.

We need to go after these guys BIG TIME. Hammer Dems and Independents that a vote for your individual moderate/liberal Republican is a vote for no oversight, a rubber-stamp congress, no accountability and the continued failures of the Bush Administration in both foreign and domestic policies.

They better have some of these ads ready. The DNC, DCCC, DSCC, etc. must know this already. I think Sheldon Whitehouse came out with an ad to this effect today but I want to see it blanket much of the country.

We need a damn database with these folk's names in it so we can target them.

I'm actually glad to see this article in the paper. I was afraid we were getting too complacent - just assuming the Dems should probably win at least the House. That is one thing that could really kill us in this election.

edit to add - Of course, I agree with your post. I followed it to my own little tangent. I think there are quite a few Indys and Dems that are foolish enough to vote for Republicans when they should know better.

[FogerRox]

20. WCGreen , exactly

[brentspeak]

6. Which means Democratic rank-and-file have to get in gear

Are you going to let these Republican clowns win again? Or are you going to go out there, mobilize voters, and give them hell??!!




http://teaching.arts.usyd.edu.au/history/hsty3080/StudentWebSites/AMELIA/My%20Webs/AMELIA%20RFK%20WEB/images/photoalbum/images/jfk%20+%20rfk%20C_jpg.jpg

[Purveyor]

11. Indeed the Congress is ours to loose. Get off the fucking keyboard

and work your neighborhood...STARTING NOW!!!

That is where the vote is at.

Pick up the phonebook, find your local Democrat Headquarters and ask, "what can I do to help".

The time for "yakking and talk" on a like minded forum is over.

Time to "moblize" and move out and have a good time doing so.

The public is on our side, they just need a warm body to come up to them and say, "I'm with you, you are not alone".

[bluestateguy]

10. reply

"Their turnout operation is exquisite," a senior Democratic strategist said. "We are not going to match them."

And that is why you lose.

[Tellurian]

14. My first response to the senior Democratic strategist

"YOU'RE FIRED!!"

[Misskittycat]

15. Does R.I. allow crossover voting in the primary?

If so, could Dems and independents have voted for Chafee?

[Tellurian]

17. Yes..

Then you are offered disaffiliation papers.

But then if you went Rep for the vote, you couldn't vote for Dems.

I did not.

[Peace Patriot]

18. I'm missing something here. What are Laffey's politics? Why is it such a

big deal that Chafee won the Republican primary? And who won the Democratic primary? I'm late to this story. Could someone explain this to me in simple terms?

It sounds to me--since Chafee so often votes against the Bush Junta--like this was an exercise in buying a election, and nothing more. They throw in over a million bucks, and fly in "volunteers" (all expenses paid, and then some, no doubt). How is it an example of anything, if there was no opposition to the left of Chafee? (I'm presuming there wasn't.) And why would the RNC abandon the race if Chaffee had lost and Laffey had won--if both are Republicans?

[FogerRox]

22. like this

Laffey is the CON

Chaffee is the Lib "R"

Whitehouse is the DEM

Sheller is the Progressive DEM

.................

If Laffey wins the Primary, he loses to the DEM, Bigtime. Whitehouse won the DEM Primary, so its 2 moderates running against each other.

Remember Chaffee is holding up the Bolton nomination in COmmittee, the repubs were trying to buy Chaffee off. BUt CHaffee has not yet beat Whitehouse, sooooo we shall see how this plays out.

[madfloridian]

19. The GOP has their parties established all over the country.

That makes it easy to get the vote with people on the ground in the district. That is one of the reasons we need to rebuild our state parties. We don't have the structure they have.

[Pirate Smile]

23. kick

[cap]

25. I'm not sure that people want their political views recorded

and saved in a database. People do want some anonymity when they talk about politics to strangers.

[Beetwasher]

27. Bullshit Cover Story For More Stolen Elections

n/t

[BlueInPhilly]

29. This getting me depressed N/T

[Peace Patriot]

30. Yes, I'm thinking this, too. It's Rovian newsturd no. 5 of the post-

election narrative (being written now) for "explaining" their mystifying, miraculous comeback "victory" this fall. He lays these newsturds down in the newsstream along the way, and later pulls this crap out and produces it as the "explanation" for yet another Diebold (s)election via TRADE SECRET, PROPRIETARY programming code.

Newsturd no.1: hatred of gays.

Newsturd no. 2: hatred of brown immigrants.

Newsturd no. 3: love of Arab heads exploding under our bombs (Zarqawi, Lebanon)

Newsturd no. 4: Terra-terra-terra, 9/11, 9/11, 9/11.

Newsturd no. 5: (in 2004) Their "invisible" get-out-the-vote campaign "in the churches"/Rove, Cheney used this afterwards) (--no evidence of any significant success--the Dem grass roots blew the Bushites away in new voter registration in 2004, nearly 60/40; facts don't matter, only PLAUSIBLE-sounding "explanations").

Has anybody verified ANY of the "facts" in this R.I. "news" story? Numbers registered? Numbers voting? New registrations? Bushite money spent? No. of volunteers flown in? What they did? Is it 100% myth? Or a funded myth which they actually spent resources to create and orchestrate? (You can't trust anything in corporate monopoly "news" stories these days; sometimes dictated right off Rovian "talking points" memos--nor can you trust Dem leaders' statements, necessarily--for all we know, they have stock in Diebold, or were mis-quoted.)

[Judi Lynn]

31. For Senate control, R.I. is the battleground

For Senate control, R.I. is the battleground
Democrat Whitehouse portrays Sen. Lincoln Chafee as Bush-Rove tool

By Tom Curry
National affairs writer
MSNBC
Updated: 35 minutes ago

WARWICK, R.I. - We often hear candidates say, “Vote for the man, not the party.” But in Rhode Island this year, Democratic Senate candidate Sheldon Whitehouse is inverting that formula.

As he tries to oust liberal Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee, Whitehouse’s pitch is: vote for the party, vote for a Democratic majority in the Senate.

More than any other Democratic candidate I have reported on this year, Whitehouse is overtly and repeatedly telling voters that it’s the party — and the party’s chance for a Senate majority -- that truly matters, and less so the man himself.

“We could well be the key right here in Rhode Island to a Democratic Senate in Washington, a Democratic Senate that will stand up to George Bush, a Democratic Senate that will say ‘no’ to him when he needs to be told ‘no,’” Whitehouse told a campaign dinner in a working-class section of East Providence this week.
(snip/...)

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14839510/