Israelis edge closer to war with Syria

[bemildred]

Israel and Syria appeared to be edging closer to direct military confrontation last night after tit-for-tat attacks around the Lebanese border and the revelation that a new type of long-range missile fired into Israel by Hezbollah was built in Syria.

Tension between the two countries over the war in Lebanon was growing as both Tel Aviv and Damascus readied their forces for the possibility of a direct clash. Israeli intelligence reported that Syrian forces had been put onto their highest state of alert, while Israel has called up 15,000 reservists who many believe will be despatched as reinforcements to the disputed Golan Heights, between the two countries.

Last night an explosives expert with the Israeli police concluded that the "unknown" missile fired by the pro-Syrian Hezbollah at the town of Afula on Friday, 30 miles inside the Israeli border, was Syrian-made, and was capable of reaching Tel Aviv, the country's largest city.

Earlier in the day, Israeli warplanes struck Masnaa, the main crossing point between Lebanon and Syria, with three missiles leaving craters in the middle of the road, forcing the border to close. Witnesses said the Israelis targeted and destroyed the last building before the Syrian border.

Telegraph.UK

[burythehatchet]

1. If I were Condi I might say

"who could have imagined that this action would have led to a way between Israel and Syria???"{

[Redstone]

2. The Syrians sure are stupid MFs, aren't they?

Guess they don't remember what happened the last two times.

Redstone

[allemand]

3. Jingoism running amok. n/t

[bemildred]

4. I think this is propaganda, but we will see. nt

[tnlefty]

5. Please enlighten me. Propanganda for what purpose?

And in whose interest?

[bemildred]

9. Selling newspapers comes to mind.

Plus a general interest in keeping the Rubes spooked.

[tnlefty]

25. All of this is certainly unnerving me!

Thanks, and I hope that you are correct. :hi:

[bemildred]

26. Not doing much for my nerves either.

:hi:

[The Magistrate]

6. Let Us Hope It Is, My Friend

There is stupid, and then there is stupid....

[bemildred]

11. Seems like lots of speculation based on very few facts.

Of course the danger is real.

[tocqueville]

10. I don't know, Israel is losing the war right now...

both diplomatically and militarily. If a cease-fire is declared, that's a great victory for the Hezbollah and the Hezbollah would be mainly intact with a great clout in the ME. It's David against Goliath, but this time David isn't Israeli. This is a nightmare for Israel because other Arab countries wouldn't see Israel longer as invincible. Egypt and Jordan could become cocky again, specially under pressure at home.

Exporting the war to Syria would draw in the US and change the situation completely. But that means total war in the ME.

Losing this war is no option for Israel. Its credibility is at stake. That's why it will try anything.

[bemildred]

14. I don't think they've showed evidence of that level of stupidity yet.

They have been rather cautious on the whole, once one looks past the bombing campaign.

I'm not saying you are wrong, I just don't think it's inevitable that Israel will choose to expand the conflict because it hasn't worked out well so far. My greatest worry is that Nasrallah will land a big one in Tel Aviv or something and some suitable response will be declared necessary, and so on like that. But I'm guessing like everyone else.

[tocqueville]

19. Nasrallah would be pretty stupid if he did that

because hell would break loose and Israel's position would be better on the moral side. Shimon Perez has said that Israel cannot afford to lose. Of course the Syrian option might be the ultimate option. Depends who is pulling the strings. European observers agree in general that Olmert isn't really in charge, he doesn't have Sharon's clout. So the ones really in charge is the IDF. The Haaretz says that Condi is in reality leading the war and that it is jeopardizing Israel's interests.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/744043.html

The same article shows the cautious aspect with Syria. But what if is on Bush's "mind"?

[bemildred]

23. True, he's been quite careful, too, not to prod the bull too hard.

Let's not talk about Peres, we'll just fight.
Edit: never mind, I can see we would not fight, but it's still an unpleasant subject.

Otherwise I agree with your comments, although there seems to be a wide variety of conflicting points of view about the US' role in things.

[Name removed]

43. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[PsychoDad]

55. Now someone tells me....

You stated: "Islamic adult males consider it below themselves to prepare food, bathe themselves, or children, do laundry or even clean their own weapons."

I'm an adult Islamic male who had never heard about this. It would also seem that my adult Islamic wife has never heard about this "rule" either as she has always expected me to do my share of diaper changing, 2am feedings, cooking, cleaning, watching the children while she and her friends go shopping, etc.

And you better believe she makes me clean my own weapons.

Thank you for clarifying this for me sir, I shall inform her of the changes immediately.

I just hope she doesn't hurt me too badly.

Peace.

[MsMagnificent]

56. Nothing bigoted about that comment!

Nope, nothing at all! :eyes:

You write:

"a honest military to fight gorilla terrorists that continually complain about civilian injury and death"

--a(n) "honest" military? The same military who get 10 urgent phone calls, but the multiple attacks against & finally the taking out of a UN post was "an accident"? ...as was the hours-long attack on the USS Liberty?
The "surgical", "precision" strikes that flatten entire city blocks and slaughter hundreds of civilians, including women, children & the elderly?
The same military that calls civilians to evacuate then attacks them as they, as they were ordered to, try to flee?
THAT "honest" military? :rofl:

--they "continually complain about civilian injury and death"?! :rofl:
My God, we're bombarded with MORE boo-hoo victimhood about soldiers , as if that wasn't a risk one had to take by being in the military,
and an ultra-aggressive military on top of it!


Authority, hmm?
Riiiight....

[Zhade]

62. What a fucking bigoted comment.

Racist much?

[Mudoria]

16. If Hezbollah is winning...

this conflict I sure hate to see what losing would look like. Israel doesn't worry about the diplomatic aspects of the situation and they never have. A sad situation for the people of Lebanon to be caught between these two.

[Igel]

49. Hezbollah's winning.

Don't confuse what we'd judge as winning with what the mullah thinks.

The conditions for winning are highly idiosyncratic. For Hezbollah, getting the release of Kuntar, killing Israelis, forcing them out of Israel (eventually) and maintaining their organizational integrity is winning; if they get the Shebaa Farms out from under Israeli control, and get a landmine map, all the better.

Nasrallah's already said he doesn't care about the civilian deaths or the damage to the physical infrastructure; he's in no way responsible for those things, and he's holding out, at a minimum, for the exchange of prisoners.

He's a true believer in his religious mission. Moreover, he knows the culture: he knows that his followers, first; Shi'ite Muslims, second; Arabs third ... will mostly close ranks behind him in ascribing honor to him/themselves and humiliation to the others, i.e., blame the outsiders for anything bad, and attribute anything good to him.

Had the Israelis delivered a quick defeat to Nasrallah, all would have been fine. His followers would have turned their backs, Shi'ites wouldn't have cared, and Sunnis would have gone about their business. Being crushed by overwhelming force isn't neutral wrt honor and pride, but can be dealt with. But now that they're personally invested, and it wasn't a crushing defeat, even defeat might be a loss for the Israelis. Nurtured humiliation is a time-honored tradition, in the absence of victory.

[bemildred]

50. You mean "out of Lebanon" (Edit: I think?) .

Otherwise, your view agrees with mine. It was intended as a demonstration, and as a demonstration, so far, it has failed.

[Ms. Clio]

57. no, that's not what he means n/t

[bemildred]

58. Seems incoherent then.

If you have the Israelis out of Israel, don't you have them out of Shebaa Farms?

[Ms. Clio]

59. yes, you're right, maybe it was a typo

otherwise it's baffling.

[Ragin_mad]

21. If Israel is losing then why are there no enemy fighters in it's territory

I see Israel going and coming into Lebanon at will.

[Toots]

54. It seems like a daily occurance that a bomb goes off in some Israeli marke

or club. They have had as many bombimgs as Iraq in the last year or two. Why do you say there is nothing happening in Israel?

[daleo]

22. I understand your reasoning, but it still seems bizarre

What you say makes sense in a way, even though it is crazy in another way. The Israelis have to make the war wider in order to win - it is one of ways war has its own mad logic.

I think the IDF would love to have a old fashioned army to hammer from the air. It would give a satisfying sense of military dominance. But it would only create a bigger and more determined Hezbollah, or something like it. Israelis would not gain security from the low intensity conflict that they have suffered from for decades. That would only get worse.

It also brings in the possibility of the U.S. and Iran joining the fray. Bush/PNAC would love that.

[SquireJons]

27. Hezbollah isn't wining either

Survival isn't wining, it's surviving. The real loser in this conflict is the nation of Lebanon. It's infrastructure is ruined and the other states in the region will not risk such an economic catastrophe. That is why Iran and Syria are being cautious. Jordon and Egypt have much to lose in a conflict with Israel, and with the sure backing of the Bush administration, Israel can not lose a military fight. So there is no way that the governments of Arab states will imitate Hamas or Hezbollah. Now the people are another matter. They see standing up to Israel as a victory, but it is a spurious victory. Cooler heads will prevail.

[tocqueville]

36. the fact that the Hezbollah isn't losing makes them winners

in the eyes of the Arab masses. They are inferior, but dare what the Arab governments don't, despite the rethoric.
France won the war in Algeria militarily but lost it politically. De Gaulle was smart enough to foresee that and gave Algeria its independence while the FNL was reduced to a gang on the other side of the Maurice line in Tunisia and all the leaders were either dead or in jail. Bravery is more important in the Arab world than "factual" victory. The US won in Iraq, Saddam was no match. But now a bunch of insurgents armed with AK47, RPGs and IEDS are bogging thm down.

"Israel has limited options for continuing the fighting. Since it has not succeeded to date to restrict Hezbollah's war of attrition against urban centers in Israel, including the targeting of Afula, the only option is a rapid operation for the capture of southern Lebanon in order to destroy the Hezbollah rocket arsenal prior to the transfer of a multinational force to the area. It may have other serious options, but these will not affect the rocket arsenal of Hezbollah. This is a race against time and against Hezbollah that is aided by Syria and Iran."

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/744043.html

Israel has 7 days to "win", which I doubt they will. If they don't it doesn't matter that half of Lebanon is flattened, the Hezbollah wins with an immense prestige. The intl force might prevent further attacks, but those will come later from other places. The only solution for Israel is to negotiate. Peace against territories.

[SquireJons]

53. I agree that this makes Hezbollah popular...

But that will not induce any Arab government to challenge Israel. The man in the street is angry, but the governments have to rebuild the roads, hospitals, schools government buildings, bridges, airports, etc, etc, etc. So my point is that no Arab state will come directly to the aid of Hezbollah or Hamas. Israel can not make either group go away without making drastic concessions to it's neighbors, meaning it must go back to the 1967 boarders. Even then it might not get long term peace. But neither can any combination of Arab states hope to defeat Israel while it enjoys the military support of America. It's a stalemate. This is just moving the pieces around the board a bit. It's a PR move on Hezbollah's part and a political move by Olmet to sure up his support among hardliners in Israel. I seriously doubt that the conflict will broaden, because no country over there wants the destruction that it will result in. The one possible route that can lead to this would be a popular uprising among the peoples of various nations and an overthrow of their governments. But given the polarization among Sunni's and Shia, I doubt this will happen.

[Zynx]

35. Syria and Jordan are jokes.

The cannot fight a modern army face up. Egypt would be a serious matter, but we have so much clout with Egypt that we can stop them.

Israel underestimated Hezbollah's abilities similar to when we underestimated the resistence in Fallujah. Hezbollah can only fight with guerilla tactics. Syria does not have such a luxury. Their army would be pasted in open combat. They simply do not have the firepower to contend with Israel.

[tocqueville]

44. never misunderestimate your enemy

the Syrian air force will last 3 days
The Syrian navy is a joke
the Syrian Army is still formidable.

In addition to being the largest, the army was the best equipped of the three services, with over 4,100 Soviet-built tanks (including 1,000 of the advanced T-72's) and a formidable air defense system of SAM batteries and myriad antiaircraft guns and artillery. In 1987, Syria was scheduled to receive 500 new Soviet SS-23 ballistic missiles with a range of 500 kilometers. Syria was also reported to have begun producing its own chemical weapons, including nerve gases, with the capability to use the chemical agents in missile warheads. The Air Defense Command, within the Army Command, but also composed of Air Force personnel, numbered approximately 60,000. It served in twenty air defense brigades (with approximately ninety-five SAM batteries) and two air defense regiments. The Air Defense Command had command access to interceptor aircraft and radar facilities. Air defenses included SA-5 long-range SAM batteries around Damascus and Aleppo, with additional SA-6 and SA-8 mobile SAM units deployed along Syria's side of the Lebanese border and in eastern Lebanon, and short-range SS-21 surface-to-surface missiles with conventional warheads. The 1,800-man Border Guard (sometimes designated as Desert Guard or Frontier Force) was also under Army Command and responsible for patrolling the nation's vast border areas.

The Syrian army is organized into three corps with six to seven armored divisions, three mechanized divisions, a special forces division, and one Republican Guard division. The armored divisions each have three armored brigades, one mechanized infantry brigade and one division artillery regiment comprised of four battalions. The mechanized divisions each have two armored brigades, two mechanized brigades and a division artillery regiment also comprised of four battalions.

A typical armored division numbers roughly 8,000 soldiers and a mechanized division may include 11,000 personnel.

The special forces division has three regiments. It is not clear if a formal divisional headquarters exists or if for the sake of simplicity the three regiments have just been lumped together.

The Republican Guard armored division is comprised of three armored brigades a division artillery regiment.

The Syrian Army also has a parachute division with seven brigades.

A coastal defense brigade supports naval forces in defending against threats from the sea. It is equipped with SS-C-1Bs and SSC-3 surface-to-surface missiles.

Three surface-to-surface missile brigades are each comprised of one FROG-7 battalion, a Scud-B/C battalion and a SS-21 battalion. Syria's total inventory of SSM is estimated to include some 18 FROG-7s, 18 SS-21s, and 26 Scud Bs and Cs.

Finally, there are several independent units including a tank regiment, four infantry brigades, two anti-tank brigades, two artillery brigades and ten special forces regiments.

In 2002, the Syrian army has roughly 215,000 soldiers. The generall readiness and effectiveness of the Syrian Army is fairly low despite the generally good readiness of its special forces, roughly two armored divisions, one mechanized division and the Republican Guard division. Syria has a significant quantity of armor numbering some 4,700 tanks, though 1,200 are placed in static defensive positions and another 2,000 are T-55s and T-62s. Syria does however have some 1,700 T-72/72Ms.

Virtually all of Syria armored reconnaissance vehicles (600 BRDM-2s and 125 BRDM-2 RKHs) are out-dated as is their 2,000 BMP-1s, though the 200-350 BMP-2s and BMP-3s are more modern.

Syria's artillery capability is significant, as it is armed with 122mm Type 2S1s and 152mm 2S3s. Its towed artillery is comprised mostly of 122mm, 130mm and 152mm weapons. Its multiple rocket launcher inventory consists of Type 63 107mm and BM-21 122mms. According to Anthony Cordesman Syria relies principally on static massed fires and is unable to rapidly shift fires. Accuracy beyond line of site is also lacking as their ability to maneuver and exploit counterbattery radars and targeting systems.

Syria's reserve forces include one armored division comrpised of four armored brigades, two armored regiments, 31 infantry regiments and three artillery regiments

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/syria/army.htm

[Zynx]

46. Without an airforce, Syria's army is pointless.

It would be smashed on the ground just like in 1967.

[HereSince1628]

48. Well, Syria has a defense alliance with Iran

And although Syria may not have ballistic missles, Iran sure the hell has missles that can reach everywhere in Israel. Ballistic missle probably aren't gonna be stopped by aircraft.

Now, the crazies in the basement may think a regional conflagration from Israel to the western borders of India is akin to popping a long festering zit, but the rest of us know it's truly crazy.

[Zhade]

60. Well, it IS the Torygraph, a conservative paper.

NT!

[snappyturtle]

7. Please, with your diplomatic prose why......

don't you enlighten us with your knowledge.

[Redstone]

8. 1967. 1973. If a guy beats the hell out of you twice, do you provoke him

to fight you again?

Pretty simple.

Redstone

[bilgewaterbill]

12. Only if you're blinded by hatred. nt

[Redstone]

13. Well, there is that. There's ALWAYS that, isn't there?

Redstone

[tocqueville]

15. Those were classical wars... not comparable

and BTW Syria nearly won one of them, the Israeli were very lucky. Israel cannot sustain asymmetrical warfare
in Syria. It can hardly do it in Lebanon. All those guys have learnt from Iraq. The strategic bombings over Lebanon have been totally meaningless. The chain of command of Hezbollah doesn't work with sophisticated electronics and leaders in air-conditioned atomic bunkers. It works with the "arab telephone" and donkeys. And remote controlled rockets. Fire and forget, Hezbollah style. The material damage on Israel is minimal but the
psychological enormous. Stressed people make mistakes of judgment.

Israel is making the mistake of fighting an old war, not the war of the future. It's a classical mistake.

[bilgewaterbill]

17. Israel's goal has never been to conquer, but to inflict enough

damage to stop the aggression against it. A war between Syria and Israel would result in the same outcome as in '67 and '73- Syria's military decimated and the Syrians suing for peace. Assad's government (and Assad himself) would not survive. The question would be what form Syria's new government would take.

[tocqueville]

20. with the little exception that they have "forgotten" to give back

what they have been occupying in a push forward. And of course nobody has settled on those "not conquered" territories in the last 40 years. Who do you think they are kidding ?

[bilgewaterbill]

24. I think you've forgotten what they've given back....

The gave back the Sinai and Suez Canal. They gave back Lebanon in 2000. They gave back Gaza and the West Bank. If conquest was their aim, those territories would still belong to them. Who are you kidding?

[tocqueville]

29. They gave back what they couldn't keep

The Sinai is worthless, and Israel never intended to keep it anyway, they LOST Lebanon, kicked out by the Hezbollah. The West bank ? ROFL



notice the size of the green areas and their discontinuities



the legal Israel is within the lighter colors

and don't forget the Golan heights. Israeli governments have been reluctant to discuss returning the Golan Heights to Syria as part of a peace deal. Many of the headwaters of the Jordan River, from which Israel draws much of its fresh water resources, lie in the Golan Heights.

The international perspective, excepting only the U.S. in some cases, is that:

The annexation of the Golan Heights and East Jerusalem are illegal and not recognized by international law
The West Bank and Gaza are "occupied," because:
They were captured by force of arms and against the will of their populations
The residents in these areas were stateless
Israel has put the territories under military rather than civilian administration, creating a de facto state of occupation
Non-Jewish residents who reject Israeli citizenship and/or hegemony have the right to self-determination

you are only right about Gaza, and we had to wait to 2005

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_law_and_the_Arab-Israeli_conflict#.22Occupied.22_vs._.22Disputed.22_territories

[bilgewaterbill]

33. Your original point was that Israel was making a mistake in

fighting this as a "classical war". I countered that Israel doesn't fight to conquer lands but to stop aggression against it. You replied that they haven't given back what they took. I countered that they have given back what they occupied. You, correctly, point out that they have not returned it all.

This discussion stems from your assertion that Israel cannot win a "classical war". My point is that they don't fight one. They attack as much as necessary to win a peace. What other victorious party has given back the spoils of war? The occupation of Lebanon until 2000 taught the Israeli's that conquest is too costly. They will fight until this war escalates to include Syria or until Hezbollah is significantly degraded and sues for peace.

[tocqueville]

40. Their latest attack on Lebanon is a a classic Powell air/land battle

same than in Kosovo/Serbia. It didn't work militarily. It worked politically. Serbia gave up because the Russians forced them to. But in Lebanon things are different. The Hezbollah is not the Serbs and they will be backed to the end by Iran and probably Syria. The difference from previous wars is that the flattening of Syria wouldn't even help. It would mean that others than the Baathists would take over. And Iran would unleash the shiites in Iraq (it's happening already). Israel is conscious of that. If they don't get rid of the Hezbollan within next week (and I doubt they will), they have lost. No they won't be invaded right away. But the Arab governments will look at Israel with very different eyes, and that's not good for israel in the long run. Regim changes in Egypt and Jordan are not impossible, and it's not the kind of regimes that the US would like.

[bemildred]

45. Uncle Sugar's support is not worth what it once was, either.

Thanks to George's wonderful adventure in Iraq.
And the Bushites general tendency to piss everybody off.

You are quite right about why "regime change" in Syria is a bad idea.

And I think you are right about the "Powell air/land battle" stuff, this "war" was intended to force political changes, I have yet to see a sensible military objective put forward; and it hasn't worked out too well, so I don't know what they are going to do now. All the choices are bad.

[Swede]

47. Eygpt gets 5% of it's oil from there.

5% from the Sinai Peninsula (and 80% from the Gulf of Suez which was impossible with the IDF had the Sinai.)

[Minstrel Boy]

30. "They gave back Gaza and the West Bank"

Who are you kidding?

[bilgewaterbill]

34. I'm sorry, did I miss the part where they were taken back by force?

[Lindacooks]

28. So have they accomplished that goal?

No, of course not.

Violence begets violence.

[bilgewaterbill]

31. Tell that to Hezbollah.

[Lindacooks]

39. Tell that to Israel.

And we could go on and on and on, but you're on ignore.

[bilgewaterbill]

41. I'll bet you wish you could do that with all of life's difficulties. nt

[Sherman A1]

18. You could very well be right

[Zynx]

38. Syria never came close. Egypt did, not Syria.

[tocqueville]

42. The road to Jerusalem was open

By the end of the first day of battle, the Syrians (who at the start outnumbered the Israelis in the Golan 9 to 1) had achieved moderate success. Towards the end of the day, "A Syrian tank brigade passing through the Rafid Gap turned northwest up a little-used route known as the Tapline Road, which cut diagonally across the Golan. This roadway would prove one of the main strategic hinges of the battle. It led straight from the main Syrian breakthrough points to Nafah, which was not only the location of Israeli divisional headquarters but the most important crossroads on the Heights."<7> During the night, Lieutenant Zvika Greengold, who had just arrived to the battle unattached to any unit, fought them off with his single tank until help arrived. "For the next 20 hours, Zvika Force, as he came to be known on the radio net, fought running battles with Syrian tanks—sometimes alone, sometimes as part of a larger unit, changing tanks half a dozen times as they were knocked out. He was wounded and burned but stayed in action and repeatedly showed up at critical moments from an unexpected direction to change the course of a skirmish."<7> For his actions, Zvika became a national hero in Israel.

During over four days of fighting, the Israeli 7th Armored Brigade in the north (commanded by Yanush Ben Gal) managed to hold the rocky hill line defending the northern flank of their headquarters in Nafah. For some as-yet-unexplained reason, the Syrians were close to conquering Nafah, yet they stopped the advance on Nafah's fences, letting Israel assemble a defensive line. The most reasonable explanation for this is that the Syrians had calculated estimated advances, and the commanders in the field didn't want to digress from the plan. To the south, however, the Barak Armored Brigade, bereft of any natural defenses, began to take on heavy casualties. Brigade Commander Colonel Shoham was killed during the second day of fighting, along with his Second in Command and their Operations Officer (each in a separate tank) as the Syrians desperately tried to push inwards towards the Sea of Galilee and towards Nafah. At this point the Brigade stopped functioning as a cohesive force, although the remaining tanks and crewmen continued fighting independently.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yom_Kippur_War

The Israeli were saved by the reserves and by Syrian incompetence. But that was near.

[ckramer]

32. But the problem is, the younger generations don't know or

don't remember that.

[bilgewaterbill]

37. Excellent point. nt.

[snappyturtle]

51. Because maybe you've learned your lesson.....

well, and use your knowledge to beat the hell out of him. If you haven't figured it out yet or not, the tide is turning. The old time loyalty to Israeli is becoming very frail......people around the world have had enough of the bullying tactics of Israel and unfortunately, of the U.S.

[rustydad]

61. Well maybe ...

..the Syrians should just get on their knees and let Israel give them a nice butt *uck. Israel is now the ultimate terrorist state in the world. Yes? Bob

[bkcc]

52. Sounds like BushCo is getting someone....

to do their dirty work for them. The administration has been champing at the bit to go after Syria. Now Israel is going to save them the trouble of a war and having another PR disaster on their hands.

I'd say it was funny if it weren't so damn scary.