Democrats Have 20-Point Lead in U.S.

[sabra]

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/12210

Democrats Have 20-Point Lead in U.S.
June 12, 2006
(Angus Reid Global Scan) – The Democratic Party remains the favourite in this year’s election to the United States Congress, according to a poll by Ipsos-Public Affairs released by the Associated Press. 52 per cent of respondents would like to see the Democrats win control of the U.S. legislative branch, up one point since May.

Support for a victory for the Republican Party is at 32 per cent, down two points in a month. In addition, 12 per cent of respondents want neither party in charge of Congress, and four per cent are not sure.

...

Polling Data

If the election for Congress were held today, would you want to see the Republicans or Democrats win control of Congress?

Jun. 2006 May 2006 Apr. 2006

Democrats 52% 51% 49%

Republicans 32% 34% 33%

Neither 12% 13% 15%

Not sure 4% 2% 3%

Source: Ipsos-Public Affairs / Associated Press
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,003 American adults, conducted from Jun. 5 to Jun. 7, 2006. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

[BillZBubb]

1. That's the kind of number that is significant

Below 20%, the incumbency effect tends to dominate. Once you get above 20%, there is enough momentum for change that even some incumbents get the boot. Hope it holds through November.

[Johng333]

2. Time for a changing of the guard - good!

Hopefully the right people with the right direction will get a chance.


I vote American every election.

[saracat]

18. Odd use of words don't you think? Vote American?

Does that mean you think others don't?

[Mz Pip]

3. Hopefully, this will have some effect

on the " I want change but my Repug Congresscritter/Senator is ok."

All politics are local. People say they want chage in the big picture but want what they're used to locally. Dems are going to have to campaign smart and agressively in those districts where the margiuns are close. There aren't many of those.

Mz Pip
:dem:

[onehandle]

4. A 20-Point lead is UnAmerican. nt

[kiraboo]

5. I hope nobody here believes any of these poll numbers.

The 2004 election must have taught you that polls are notoriously inaccurate... probably democrats were grossly overpolled, or all the republicans were sick the day of the polls, or evil forces compelled those polled to lean democratic. :sarcasm:

[Pale Blue Dot]

7. You know what's scary? The Repubs don't seem scared enough.

You'd think that 20 points behind they'd be acting a little desperate... trying to do things differently.

What do they know that we don't?

[kiraboo]

9. That's the question, isn't it.

No doubt they believe that God is on their side. I do have relatives who believe such nonsense.

[Bhaisahab]

14. Dunno about God, but Diebold is definitely on their side. n/t

[Speaker]

16. What do they know that we don't?

You'd think that 20 points behind they'd be acting a little desperate... trying to do things differently.

What do they know that we don't?

They have one of the most effective false flag operations in political history in their pocket.

The Sarah Brady effect.

Sarah will get Schumer, Hillary, Feinstein, Kennedy, and Boxer to pump out a really egregious gun control bill near the end of summer.

The pugs will do fine in November.

[Charles19]

21. They want a small Dem majority in the house

Then they can blame every negative thing on earth on the Dem congress and get everything back in 2008.

They could really care less about a Dem congress right now, but losing the Senate or Presidency would be catostrophic for their agenda.

They know with Fox news and the talk radio propaganda machine rolling they are in little danger. A big win for the Dem's could wake them up but unfortunately I don't think a big win is coming. I would love to be proved wrong though :-).

[krkaufman]

13. Yep, polls don't mean diddley. n/t

[TexasLawyer]

24. yes, and when the Republicans pull off

their Cinderella-story, come-from-behind win-by-a-hair victory, it will be because Republicans really excited their base, Democrats ran bad candidates, and Republicans did not answer exit pollers truthfully.

[robinlynne]

6. yeah! now let's send those dems a spine....

[stepnw1f]

8. Keep Working Hard REGARDLESS!

that's what this poll means to me.

[SavetheUSA]

10. If only we had a real democracy

with fair elections

[NMDemDist2]

11. welcome to DU SavetheUSA!

:hi:

[ShockediSay]

12. real democracy instead of a lobbyist republic

the way they have the voting districts gerrymandered (watch Alito on the one person one vote issue)

the way they own the voting machines and vice versa

(and again, welcome SavetheUSA.... let's hope we can)

[Tiggeroshii]

15. It'll take a little effort to get it to 30%, but I think it can be done.

Let's get it there...

[Tesha]

17. National polls like this mean *NOTHING*

National polls like this mean *NOTHING* because Congress
isn't elected nationally, it's elected district by district.
Now if you start showing me polls that say that 300 Congressional
Districts show a 20% lead for the Dems, then I'll get excited,
but this poll clearly isn't showing that.

Frankly, there are too few competitive CDs to support the kind
of huge wins that people are talking about around here. For
example, in NH, even though the Democrats are running a stellar
candidate in the 2nd CD, and even though NH only voted narrowly
for Bush in 2000 and voted for Kerry in 2004, the polls still
show us having our asses handed to us in both of NH's
Congressional Districts.

Right now, I'd have to speculate that it is huge numbers for Dems
out of the blue regions that are creating the 20% effect, but as
I said, that doesn't mean anything in an actual district-by-district
election.

Tesha

[hedgehog]

23. I agree with Tesha

It doesn't matter how many people here in New York vote to send a Democratic senator to Congress when we can be "out-voted" by a smaller number of people voting Republican in a handful of Western states! The electoral college may have failed us in 2000, but the two senator per state rule gets us in every election!

[nolabels]

26. We are victims of a parochialism past

Much like the misogynist groupings that exist many other cultures. States rights jurisdictions and local ordinances are often just erected to keep others at the bottom. We, the much homogenized people are just about universally all part of a minority population in one way or another. We all are also told by the many who think they hold power that things can't change for a sundries of reasons and somehow most believe to their own detriment.

The idea of this so called representative government seems antiquated at the very least to me. In todays world things can change in minutes and hours but to think it takes months and years for a government to address any certain problem sounds like a recipe for many future disasters. We even have a government that is all the same party (corporate party) but they too are even succumbing the idea gridlock because of future projections. Drink up, when you don't have the good faith of serving others in need at heart you often end failing, drink up

Btw, it would occur to me that this whole thing really has nothing really to do with bigger or smaller states screwing each other but rather the whole thing has been gamed and this is just another convenient excuse

[slackmaster]

19. Translation: You're bound to win, so don't even bother voting

:tinfoilhat:

[ooglymoogly]

20. to diebold this means a 20 point lead for the gop

kick and rec.

[AuntiBush]

22. Kick!

Nearly fell off the couch earlier watching Tweety actually show 4 top Democrat '08 Presidential possibles. I was shocked.

Edwards
Hillary
Kerry
(?) Can't recall

Tweety was interviewing Robert Redford in D.C. about (?) a group, a corp of steel union members, environmentalist groups, and other groups pushing for less addiction to oil and more alternative energy uses, like bio-fuels, solar, etc. I was even more startled when Tweety engaged in a real conversation talking with Mr. Redford about Vice President Al Gore's movie, An Inconvenient Truth.

When Tweety asked Redford when we as a country should take this serious. Redford said "now." That 1 word from Redford (for me) was all she wrote.

Tides are turning. But they've got to get a serious handle on our voting/ballots, now, namely listening to those like AutoRank, Bobby Kennedy, Jr., Brad Blog, etc. But, wow.

Edited to Add: Redford pulled no punches when speaking about Bush and this corrupt oil-baron administration. He said it like it was, repeatedly without blinking an eye. I was overwhelmed, and deeply impressed.

[MiniMe]

25. That would be wonderful.........for a national election

And maybe for the Senate. But it means nothing on a district by district basis. It will be an interesting election!