STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 28 December

[ozymandius]

Wednesday December 28, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 25 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 1833 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1532 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1494
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 27, 2005

Dow... 10,777.77 -105.50 (-0.97%)
Nasdaq... 2,226.89 -22.53 (-1.00%)
S&P 500... 1,256.54 -12.12 (-0.96%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.34% -0.04 (-0.89%)
Gold future... 510.10 +4.90 (+0.96%






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [email protected]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. One report today -

Dec 28 10:00 AM Consumer Confidence for Dec
Briefing Forecast 103.0
Market Expects 102.5
Prior 98.9


http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[UpInArms]

25. YeeHaw! You ARE HAPPY!

10:00am 12/28/05 U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE HIGHEST SINCE AUGUST

10:00am 12/28/05 U.S. DEC. PRESENT SITUTATION INDEX 121.5 VS. 113.2 NOV.

10:00am 12/28/05 U.S. DEC. CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS 91.6 VS. 88.4 NOV.

10:00am 12/28/05 U.S. DEC. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX 103.6 VS.103.1 EXPECTED

U.S. consumer confidence at highest level since Katrina

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38714.4168260185-855788547&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumer confidence rebounded in December to its highest level since before Hurricane Katrina, the Conference Board said Wednesday. The consumer confidence index improved to 103.6 in December from a revised 98.3 in November. It was close to the 103.1 expected by economists. The present situation index jumped to 121.5 from 113.2, the biggest monthly gain in a year. The expectations index rose to 91.6 from 88.4 in November. The number of consumers saying the economy is "bad" plunged by more than 3 percentage points, while the number who said jobs are plentiful once gain exceeded the number who said jobs are hard to get.

[54anickel]

30. Gotta keep the consumer deliriously happy -they're the only thing that

keeps this ship afloat. Nevermind the deficits, the yield curve, or any of the fundamentals, just keep 'em shopping for that cheap crap from Wal-Mart!

I noticed the markets got a bit spooked yesterday by that momentary inversion of the yield curve. Funny how the flattening didn't seem to bother them as much. Must be that frog/boiling water thingie. So, will we be flooding the market with more notes to bring the price down? Wonder how long before we can't even give 'em away. :evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

32. see my post #31 for those "happy" thoughts

in this up is down, down is up world.

:eyes:

Have I said how much I despise this mal-administration's fiscal ruination policies lately?

[WhiteTara]

39. everyone is looking for Santa Claus

to leave a lump of coal in their stocking so they can keep warm

[ozymandius]

2. Natural Gas Futures Slip Further

SINGAPORE - Natural gas prices slipped further Wednesday amid forecasts of mild weather in the United States, which means less consumption in the world's largest energy-consuming nation.

Natural gas dropped 7.2 cents to $10.95 per 1,000 cubic feet, a day after plunging 10 percent to their lowest level in 3 1/2 months. The sell-off triggered a decline in other energy futures.

Tuesday's settlement price of the January natural gas contract — $11.022 — was slightly above the level on the day Hurricane Katrina struck and knocked out significant Gulf of Mexico output.

-cut-

Heating oil slipped marginally to $1.6348 a gallon, while gasoline declined slightly to $1.5126 a gallon.

more

[ozymandius]

3. In lieu of WrapUp: Oil price fall triggers plunge on Wall Street

A fall in oil prices, associated with unseasonably mild weather in America’s populous North East, proved to be the trigger for falls in energy-related stocks, which had provided most of the top performers of 2005. In wintry London, Brent crude fell to $56.10 per barrel, down $1 per barrel from Friday’s pre-Christmas trading.

The nervous selling spread across the board to affect most sectors. Even reports of relatively healthy seasonal trading at Wal-Mart, the world’s biggest retailer, were taken as a sell signal.

-cut-

The post-Christmas trading hangover virtually ensures that the New York Stock Exchange will be the worst performing of all major stock markets in 2005. On average, American shares have risen by only about 3 per cent in 2005, compared with 40 per cent in Tokyo, the brightest top share market of the year.

The mood of pessimism, which linked falling oil prices to profit-taking in energy stocks, also drew superstitious support from a crossing point in the government bond market, where the interest yields on short-dated US Treasury loans rose above those on long-dated bonds for the first time in five years.

more...

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,13129-1961242,00.html

[UpInArms]

19. Danger sign in bond market helps trigger sell-off in stocks

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-0512280254dec28,1,1973.story?coll=chi-business-hed

Stocks dropped the most in two months as falling oil and natural gas prices dragged down energy shares and a milestone in the bond market triggered concern that the economy will slow.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 100 points.

The yield curve, the spread between the yields of short-term and long-term bonds, inverted for the first time in five years. That means short-term interest rates were higher than long-term interest rates.

An inverted curve last occurred in December 2000 and has preceded each of the country's past four recessions.

"What's foremost in investors' minds is what's potentially going on in the bond market," said Stephen Massocca, co-chief executive of Pacific Growth Equities in San Francisco. "With light trading days, it doesn't take much to move the market one way or the other. The fear is that it would lead to a short-term recession."

<snip>

"Although an inverted yield curve does not always imply an economic recession, it has predicted a profit recession 100 percent of the time," Merrill Lynch's North American economist David R. Rosenberg said earlier this month.

...more...

[ozymandius]

4. Rates on 30-Year Mortgages Dip for 2nd Wk.

WASHINGTON - Rates on 30-year mortgages dipped for a second week as financial markets responded to signals of lower inflation.

Mortgage giant Freddie Mac reported Thursday that rates on 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.26 percent this week, down slightly from 6.30 percent last week.

Rates on 30-year mortgages had hit a two-year high of 6.37 on Nov. 17 but have declined in four of the past five weeks.

Economists said the trend is still for rates to move higher as the Federal Reserve keeps pushing interest rates up to make sure that surging energy prices do not trigger more widespread inflation problems.

more

[UpInArms]

5. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

Last trade 90.62 Change -0.45 (-0.49%)

‘Inverted Yield Curve’ Possibility Spooks Markets

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/5763_inverted_yield_curve_possibility_spooks.html

US Dollar
Thin volume helped the greenback push past a handful of the majors against dour economic data for the world’s largest economy. Pushing aside a suggestion of slowed future activity in the Washington D.C. region and a brief realization of an inverted yield curve, traders bid the greenback higher in attempts to capture further carry trade potential before the new year. Here, investors look to profit from not only the price appreciation of the underlying currency but also the interest rate differential between the two regions. According to the Federal Reserve branch in Richmond, manufacturing activity slowed in the region, posting a negative 2 figure. Against expectations of a rise to 10, the report normally would garner some attention as it provides some bearish undertones. However, with policy makers still expected to raise interest rates another 25 basis points early in 2006, dollar bulls wanted to be first in line to gain the appreciation. Nonetheless, even the most bullish dollar investor could not disregard the brief materialization of an inverted yield curve scenario. During the session, the short term 2-year bond matched the longer term 10-year benchmark note at 4.37 percent. The significance of the match comes in the form of a potential near term recession. A financial phenomenon, the inverted yield curve has preceded the last four recessionary environments as investors remain bullish on rates in the near term while remaining wary of housing prices and consumption in the future. Ultimately, this would add to nascent sparks of bearish suggestions as we near what some have considered the end of the Fed tightening policy.

...more...

[UpInArms]

6. US home loan applications fall to over 3-1/2-yr low

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-12-28T120412Z_01_N28350042_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-MORTGAGES-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, Dec 28 (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage applications fell to a more than 3-1/2-year low last week amid a sharp drop in demand for loan refinancing even as interest rates held steady, an industry trade group said on Wednesday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications for the week ended Dec. 23 decreased 6.8 percent to 554.1 from the previous week's 594.6. Volume was at its lowest level since the week ended May 24, 2002, when the index hit 516.9.

The group's seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications dropped 11.2 percent to 1,259.1, compared with 1,418.1 the previous week. Volume was at its lowest level since the week ended April 12, 2002, when the index reached 1,246.1.

An adjustment was included in the data to help account for reduced application activity prior to the holiday weekend, the MBA said.

<snip>

The MBA's seasonally adjusted purchase mortgage index fell 4.5 percent to 432.9 from the previous week's 453.1, its lowest level since February. The index is considered a timely gauge on U.S. home sales.

...more...

[UpInArms]

7. Regulators tell Refco unit to let assets go

http://today.reuters.com/business/newsarticle.aspx?type=ousiv&storyID=2005-12-28T023249Z_01_ARM766249_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESSPRO-FINANCIAL-REFCO-REGULATORS-DC.XML

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. regulators told Refco Securities LLC they may take action against the broker-dealer if it does not provide customers immediate access to their accounts and property, its bankrupt parent Refco Inc. (RFXCQ.PK: Quote, Profile, Research) said in a court filing this week.

In a Monday filing with the U.S. bankruptcy court in New York, the futures and commodities firm said the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC) "expressed serious concern" that the Refco Securities unit had recently stopped closing out customer accounts and returning property and assets.

On December 23, SIPC said it was "considering initiating a proceeding against Refco Securities" that Refco in the court filing said would "provide customers immediate access to their accounts and customer property."

The broker-dealer had suspended the closing of accounts after realizing that some amendments to its bankruptcy filing "prohibited the return of customer property in the ordinary course of business."

Regulators, however, said they were considering actions to supersede the amendment and restart the return of customer assets with a SIPC proceeding similar to a liquidation.

...more...

[hang a left]

8. As always....

great toon! KNR

[UpInArms]

9. Oil Analysts, Wrong Since 2001, End Forecasts of Price Drop

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=ayVpj12sAFcw&refer=top_world_news

Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Wall Street oil analysts have given up calling for lower prices after missing the rallies of the past four years.

New York oil futures will average $60 a barrel in the first quarter of 2006, about $2 more than today, according to the median forecast of 25 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Prices will average $58 in all of 2006, the survey shows.

``Next year, we are going to see the continuation of a very tight market, vulnerable to supply shocks and disruption,'' said Kevin Norrish, a director of commodities research for Barclays Capital in London. Norrish and colleague Paul Horsnell had the highest and most accurate forecast for prices last year.

Oil averaged $56.67 this year, $15 more than in 2004 and the highest in two decades of New York trading. Crude touched a record $70.85 in 2005, hurting consumer spending and sparking record oil-industry profits.

<snip>

Bad Calls

Oil analysts got it wrong this year, predicting that prices would average $40.33 in 2005. Wall Street had forecast that oil would be $26.81 during 2004, the December 2003 survey showed. Instead, crude in New York averaged $41.40 in 2004.

...more...

[UpInArms]

27. Feb Crude @ $58.45 bbl - Jan NatGas @ $11.20 mln btus

10:03am 12/28/05 FEB CRUDE UP 29C AT $58.45 A BARREL

10:03am 12/28/05 JAN NATURAL GAS DOWN 11.20C AT $10.91 PER MILLION BTUS

[UpInArms]

47. Crude tops $60 bbl - Jan NatGas higher

1:34pm 12/28/05 CRUDE TOPS $60 A BARREL FOR FIRST TIME IN ALMOST 2 WEEKS

1:30pm 12/28/05 JAN NATURAL GAS RECOVERS LOSSES TO TRADE HIGHER

1:30pm 12/28/05 FEB CRUDE UP $1.74 AT $59.90 A BARREL

[4dsc]

44. The era of cheap oil is OVER!

Get use to high prices.

[UpInArms]

10. Yield curve raises fears of recession

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/5d33724a-7746-11da-a7d1-0000779e2340.html

Yields on 10-year US Treasuries briefly dipped about 1 basis point below those on two-year paper early yesterday, again raising the question of whether an inversion in the yield curve will this time herald a recession, as it often has in the past.

Once US markets opened after the holiday break, however, the situation reversed. By midday in New York, the two-year yield stood at 4.372 per cent, up 0.8bp, while the 10-year yield was down a fraction at 4.38 per cent in light trading. The curve remained inverted at short maturities, with three- and five-year yields at 4.344 per cent and 4.329 per cent respectively.

...more...

[UpInArms]

16. Yield curve inverts for second day

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38714.3597750463-855785667&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The yield curve inverted for a second day Wednesday as the yield on the 2-year note moved higher than the yield on the 10-year note, reigniting concerns about an economic slowdown. The 2-year yield last stood at 4.373%, while the 10-year yield stood at 4.365%. The curve inverted for the first time in five years on Tuesday. An inverted yield curve occurs when short-term maturities pay a higher interest rate than longer-term maturities. Such an unusual event typically has foreshadowed a noticeable economic downturn. Usually, a recession has followed.

[UpInArms]

26. Printing Press Report:Fed adds U.S. banking reserves via overnight repos

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-12-28T143244Z_01_N28343307_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, Dec 28 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday it added temporary reserves to the U.S. banking system through overnight repurchase agreements.

The benchmark fed funds rate last traded at 4.25 percent, the Fed's current target for the overnight lending rate.

Further details of the operation are available at: http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

[UpInArms]

28. Treasuries ease after 3 days of gains, curve flat

http://today.reuters.com/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2005-12-28T144616Z_01_N28339900_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS.XML

NEW YORK, Dec 28 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices retreated on Wednesday after three days of gains, with the spread between 10- and two-year notes moving in and out of inversion a day after it turned negative for the first time in five years.

Traders said with so many players away from their desks around the holidays, action was subdued and discerning flows was next to impossible. They added that trading was likely to remain thin until after this weekend's New Year holiday.

<snip>

The significance of the inverted curve, the representation of short-term versus long-term yields on a graph, is the subject of disagreement in financial markets. Many believe the bond market is signaling economic weakness when short-term yields rise above longer-term yields. But they are in conflict with the prevailing view at the Federal Reserve.

The Fed has said that heavy foreign participation in the bond market in recent years has kept rates unusually low and possibly altered interpreting the significance of an inverted yield curve.

Taking issue with the Fed view, Alan De Rose, a bond trader at CIBC World Markets in New York, said: "The shape of the curve matters. The Fed doesn't seem to believe it does, but I do."

...more...

[Roland99]

34. hmm...mexed missages re: the yield curve?

The terrorists are winning.

[UpInArms]

36. Treasurys ease; inversion continues (messages becoming clearer?)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid={B8F5B940-7EFE-4338-8609-2EC50B9C59AC}&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. Treasury prices fell modestly in thin trades Wednesday.

Traders largely ignored the as-expected gain in the consumer confidence index to 103.6 in December, the highest since August. See full story.

Yields on 2- and 10-year notes continued to flirt with an inversion, with the 2-year note yielding about 1 basis point more than the 10-year. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.

A higher yield on the shorter maturity is a rare event that has generally foreshadowed economic slowdowns and even recessions.

The curve briefly inverted on Tuesday for the first time in five years.

<snip>

New supply of 2-year notes put downward pressure on the 2-year note, driving up the yield. The Treasury will auction $20 billion in 2-year notes on Thursday.

...more...

That printing press is going to get really expensive very soon.

[Roland99]

38. I'd love to see an accurate consumer confidence index value for once.

I bet the reality of it is about 85-87.

[UpInArms]

11. Marriott Discloses Missing Data Files

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/12/27/AR2005122700959.htmlMarriott International Inc.'s time-share division said yesterday that it is missing backup computer tapes containing credit card account information and the Social Security numbers of about 206,000 time-share owners and customers, as well as employees of the company.

Officials at Marriott Vacation Club International said it is not clear whether the tapes, missing since mid-November, were stolen from the company's Orlando headquarters or whether they were simply lost.

An internal investigation produced no clear answer. The company notified the Secret Service over the past two weeks, and has also told credit card companies and other financial institutions about the loss of the tapes.

The company began sending letters to time-share owners and customers Saturday, and issued a press release about the loss yesterday. Company officials said they delayed making the matter public until they had researched what information was on the tapes and whom it affected, and determined the issue was sensitive enough to warrant a broad disclosure.

<snip>

The loss of Marriott's tapes is the latest in a series of high-profile security lapses involving data that can be used in identity theft schemes. In 2005, there were at least 134 data breaches affecting more than 57 million people, according to the Identity Theft Resource Center, a California nonprofit that helps people hurt by identity theft and lobbies on computer-privacy issues.

Last February, ChoicePoint Inc. disclosed that it had released thousands of reports containing names, addresses, Social Security numbers and financial information to people posing as officials in legitimate insurance, debt-collection and check-cashing businesses. In June, MasterCard International said that Card Systems Solutions, which processes credit card transactions, had been hacked and that forty million people had their credit card information exposed.

...more...

[UpInArms]

50. Marriott starts credit check service after losing data tapes

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/12/28/marriott_tapes_missing/

The year wouldn't be complete without another missing tape storage story, and the timeshare division of Marriott has graciously answered this call.

Marriott Vacation Club International (MVCI) this week admitted that data relating to 206,000 of its partners, employees and customers has disappeared. The missing tape storage holds individuals' credit card account information and Social Security numbers. The likes of Citibank, Bank of America and Time Warner all confessed this year to losing tape drives with crucial data as well.

“We regret this situation has occurred and realize this may cause concern for our associates and customers,” said Stephen Weisz, MVCI's president. “We have recently mailed notifications to associates, timeshare owners and timeshare customers and are available to answer any questions they may have.”

Trying to assuage fears, MVCI noted that it would take "specialized equipment" to pull the data from the lost tapes. Which is a lot like saying it takes specialized equipment to play songs purchased from Apple's iTunes. It's not quite as hard to reveal this data as MVCI would have the public think.

...more...

[UpInArms]

12. Gold gains for fourth consecutive day - $513.30 oz

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7B3B40324B-82D1-425B-9E9B-AD203EBCFE95%7D&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures rose for a fourth day Wednesday, extending its rise above the $510-an-ounce level. Gold for February delivery was last trading up $3.20 at $513.30 an ounce. Other metals were also higher with silver up 2.30 cents at $8.835 an ounce. Platinum added $6.60 to $972 an ounce and palladium rose $2 to $260 an ounce. Copper added 0.20 cents to $2.0695 a pound.

[UpInArms]

40. Gold touches $520 as it climbs fourth day; copper off

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid={7BF5A2B6-CB4E-42AE-AD15-F1BBA89C0976}&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Gold futures rose for a fourth day Wednesday, topping the $520-an-ounce level as continued physical demand bolstered confidence in the metal.

"Gold has corrected nicely and is now ready to begin working higher into the New Year with the recent highs around $540 a likely target faster than most people think," said Peter Grandich, editor of The Grandich Letter.

Gold for February delivery was last trading up $9.30 at $519.40 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Other metals were also higher, with silver up 13.8 cents at $8.95 an ounce, platinum up $8.60 at $974, and palladium gaining $7 to $265.

Copper was left out of the rally, dropping 0.75 cent to $2.06 a pound.

After falling to as low as $492.30 last week, gold resumed its climb, buoyed by reports of continued strong demand from China, India and the Middle East. Most analysts remain bullish on the metal, which is up about 16% in 2005 so far.

...more...

[Roland99]

41. Chinda, India, and the Mideast hedging their bets on a healthy US?

[UpInArms]

51. Feb Gold closes @ $516.30 oz

2:06pm 12/28/05 FEB GOLD CLOSES UP $6.20 AT $516.30 AN OUNCE

[Lasher]

13. Uh, these numbers don't add up

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 27, 2005

Dow... 10,777.77 -105.50 (-0.97%) shouldn't this be +199.53?
Nasdaq... 2,226.89 -22.53 (-1.00%) -530.02?
S&P 500... 1,256.54 -12.12 (-0.96%) -86.36?

[UpInArms]

14. the numbers for December 27 are

that particular day's market activity - not the difference between when the dimson took office and the closing numbers for the day.

:hi:

[Lasher]

24. Duh.

Thanks for posting these updates periodically. :thumbsup:

[UpInArms]

15. WP Editorial: The Economy and Mr. Bush

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/12/27/AR2005122701080.html

excerpt:

Yet on one important measure, the economic news hasn't been as good. The majority of workers have not felt the benefits. The issue is not joblessness: Ten years ago economists debated whether unemployment could fall below 6 percent without triggering inflation, but in November joblessness stood at just 5 percent, down from 5.4 percent a year earlier -- a feat that the euro zone, with an unemployment rate of 8.3 percent, can only envy. Rather, the problem for workers lies in take-home pay. Wages for blue-collar manufacturing workers and non-managers in services have remained stagnant since the economic recovery began in November 2001.

<snip>

But it may also be true that technology and globalization are contributing to wage stagnation; if workers can be replaced by machines or foreigners, they have limited bargaining power. In the four years since the recovery began, inflation-adjusted compensation (that is, wages plus benefits, as measured by the government's Employment Cost Index) has risen just 0.8 percent per year on average, less than in past recoveries and less than gains in productivity would seem to justify. One might expect wage gains to improve as the recovery matures and the economy reaches full employment. This may yet happen: After all, neither technological progress nor globalization prevented solid wage gains in the 1990s. But so far there's no clear evidence that the corner has been turned.

Moreover, what pay gains there have been are distributed unevenly. Educated workers have done best: In manufacturing, the compensation for white-collar workers rose 4.8 percent in nominal terms in the year to September, whereas the compensation for blue-collar workers rose only 2.2 percent. Equally, some sectors did better than others: Blue-collar aircraft workers wracked up gains of 15.6 percent, while food-store workers managed only 1.9 percent. It's a rule of political life that losers complain louder than winners celebrate, so the sense of a joyless economic recovery is compounded.

What policy prescriptions flow from this? It would be wrong to suppress variations in wage gains across the economy, since these help shift workers to the industries that need them most. But the increasing rewards for education underline the importance of the Bush administration's efforts to improve public schools, while the deleterious effects of health care inflation on wages point to the urgency of measures that could cut wasteful health spending, an issue on which the administration's agenda is confused. Finally, the signs that market forces may be making it hard for workers to win pay gains raise fresh questions about President Bush's tax strategy. Mr. Bush has cut taxes on capital, even though capital has increased its share of the proceeds from the economy; the cuts may ultimately force a compensating increase in taxes on workers, whose incomes haven't done as well. This amounts to common sense inverted. Rather than counteracting a troubling aspect of the economy, Mr. Bush's policy makes it worse.

...more at link...

[Tace]

17. MOGAMBO GURU: "Things Will Be Weird"

Richard Daughty -- World News Trust
email: [email protected]

I was surprised to see the surprisingly bullish article "Golden Opportunity" in this week's Barron's magazine, and if you want to know all about investing in gold, then I suggest that you get a copy. I will not review it for you, but I will say that the author, Robin Goldwyn Blumenthal, did a good job of spelling out the enormously bullish case for gold without actually screaming, like the Mogambo does, "Buy gold, or it will prove that you are an idiot!"

I liked the way that James Turk, founder of GoldMoney.com, is quoted as being "worth listening to" because he correctly forecast last autumn how gold would break $500 an ounce in 2005. So what does Mr. Turk, a guy who is thus certifiably "worth listening to," think about the price of gold in 2006? "Over $850 an ounce," he says! Hahahha! A 70% gain, in one year, on the metal alone! I love this investing stuff! It's so easy!

And I really liked the little inset box entitled, "The Bottom Line," which is, I suppose, the condensed Executive Summary for busy guys like you and me, poor proletariat working trash slobs upon whose shoulders the weight of the whole world is borne, and we are far too busy screaming at teenage children and hostile neighbors to read an entire article. So, handily, we are able to quickly learn the salient points, namely, "Gold could exceed $800 next year, say some savvy pros." And revealed in this marvelous "bottom line" inset is the "easiest way to participate" in the coming gold bonanza, which is, according to the author, to use GLD, the popular gold ETF.

And as an aside, I was mightily impressed with the performance of the Central Fund of Canada, which, according to the article, "holds gold and silver, but has no operations and no management fees. It was up 16% in the last year," which actually beats the performance of actual bullion itself, which was only up 15% in the same year, according to the article! Wow! Holding metal, but doing better than metal? Nice going, CEF!

more

http://worldnewstrust.org/modules/AMS/article.php?storyid=1946

[UpInArms]

18. Enron's former accounting chief reportedly near plea deal

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38714.3585612269-855785628&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Richard Causey, the former chief accounting officer of Enron Corp., is reportedly posted to plead guilty to at least one criminal charge in Houston on Wednesday, according to The Wall Street Journal. The plea agreement, the paper said, follows recent discussions between Causey's attorneys and the prosectuors, and it could have a "potentially major impact" on the cases of Kenneth Lay, Enron's former chairman, and Jeffrey Skilling, its former president.

[UpInArms]

20. Deal Cut: Former accountant to testify against Lay, Skilling

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B978E7BB1-FA88-40C0-846D-A1EEF0B76EB1%7D&siteid=google&dist=

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Richard Causey, Enron Corp.'s former chief accountant, has struck a plea bargain with federal prosecutors and will testify against his former bosses, according to a media report Tuesday.

Causey has agreed to testify against Enron founder Kenneth Lay and former Chief Executive Jeffrey Skilling at a trial scheduled to begin next month, the Associated Press reported, citing an unnamed person familiar with the negotiations.

In exchange for his testimony, Causey will receive a lesser sentence than if he had been convicted on all counts of fraud, conspiracy and insider trading, according to the AP.

Enron was a leading energy trader and marketer before it plunged into bankruptcy in 2001, triggering numerous state and federal investigations, one of which resulted in the federal charges against Lay and Skilling.

[ozymandius]

23. Everybody come on over to my place for popcorn and champagne.

:popcorn: :party:

[UpInArms]

35. I'll bring the wine and more popcorn (enough for everyone!)

[ozymandius]

21. pre-open blah blah

09:01 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.5. Futures trade continues to suggest an upside open for the equity market's major indices. A 0.4% rise in the price of crude futures contracts ($58.40 per barrel) has done little to dampen the early upbeat trading tone. As a reminder, the EIA's weekly release of energy inventory stats has been postponed until tomorrow due to the Christmas holiday.

08:28 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.0. The cash market remains poised to open higher. While news is light today, with a relatively quiet corporate front and a blank earnings calendar, reaffirmed +4-5% December same-store sales from Target (TGT) last night and a $1 billion U.S. Navy contract for Boeing (BA) help underpin some optimism. On the economic front, investors await the session's single piece of data - December consumer confidence - which will hit the wires at 10:00 ET. Economists expect that consumer confidence rose about 3.6% over the prior month's read.

[ozymandius]

22. Home loan applications fall to over 3-1/2-yr low

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage applications fell to a more than 3-1/2-year low last week amid a sharp drop in demand for loan refinancing even as interest rates held steady, an industry trade group said on Wednesday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications for the week ended December 23 decreased 6.8 percent to 554.1 from the previous week's 594.6. Volume was at its lowest level since the week ended May 24, 2002, when the index hit 516.9.

The group's seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications dropped 11.2 percent to 1,259.1, compared with 1,418.1 the previous week. Volume was at its lowest level since the week ended April 12, 2002, when the index reached 1,246.1.

An adjustment was included in the data to help account for reduced application activity prior to the holiday weekend, the MBA said.

more...

[UpInArms]

29. 10:10 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,810.19 +32.42 (+0.30%)
Nasdaq 2,232.06 +5.17 (+0.23%)
S&P 500 1,259.80 +3.26 (+0.26%)
10-Yr Bond 4.366 +0.25 (+0.58%)

NYSE Volume 200,327,000
Nasdaq Volume 186,899,000

10:00 am : The equity market's major averages remain comfortably ahead of the flat line and have ticked slightly higher in immediate reaction to the recently released December consumer confidence report. Reflecting a 4.8% rise over November's read, the data checked in at 103.6, better than the 102.5 economists had estimated. That report closes today's economic calendar, as the EIA's weekly inventory report has been pushed back until tomorrow because of the Christmas holiday. Separately, gains in nine of the ten economic sectors support their stances; Energy's +0.7% leads, following the sector's 2.6% drop yesterday, and Telecom's -0.1% lags. DJ30 +42.51 NASDAQ +6.07 SP500 +4.16 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 998/1405/135.7 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 733/1798/102.1 mln

09:40 am : As futures trade had presaged, the stock market started the session on positive turf and attempts to reclaim some of yesterday's losses. While we did not put a lot of stock into the yield curve's inversion as an excuse for yesterday's broad-based decline, as volume was thin and the spread was narrow going into the session, the Treasury market will continue to sit center stage today. At this point, the yield curve has flattened; the two and 10-year notes both offer 4.35%. Today's economic calendar offers just December consumer confidence data, for which economists expect a 3.6% rise over the prior month. The report is slated for release at the top of the hour; next week, retailers' December reports will be delivered and will provide investors with some actual sales data. The corporate front is a quiet one, but Target's (TGT) reaffirmed +4-5% December same-store sales expectation, Boeing's (BA) $1 billion U.S. Navy contract, Whole Foods Markets's (WFMI) addition to the S&P 500

[UpInArms]

31. Economic Propaganda

http://www.thedesertsun.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20051228/BUSINESS06/512280309/1003/business

excerpt:

"I think that the economy is doing terrible and they are putting up a lot of smoke screens," said Nicholson. "It's propaganda almost."

<snip>

In addition, the poll found more than one in four people - 28 percent - thought the economy is in a recession. And that marked an improvement from a month earlier, when 43 percent thought so.

"There seems to be a wide disconnect between the headline growth numbers and individual perception about the relative health of the economy," said David Joy, vice president of capital markets strategy for RiverSource Investments.

<snip>

And over time, the gap between rich and poor has widened. People in the top 20 percent of incomes earned an average of 12 times as much as those in the bottom 20 percent in 1990. By 2004, it was nearly 15 times as much.

Joy attributes the widening gap between rich and poor to "the broader transition of this economy into a service- and knowledge-based economy that relies less and less on manufacturing and less on raw labor power."

At a year-end economic briefing where Treasury Secretary John Snow described the economy as having reached a "sweet spot," he declined to say whether the administration thinks it's an appropriate time for a minimum wage increase.

...more...

[54anickel]

43. Good to see more folks not falling for the BS. Makes you wonder where

the consumer confidence numbers are coming from. :eyes:

[specimenfred1984]

48. TNS, Operated by a GOP Contributor

John J. McDonnell, Chairman
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=tns

http://216.239.51.104/search?q=cache:JQjBXUMMxYUJ:www.city-data.com/elec/elec-RESTON-VA.html+John+J.+McDonnell+tns+bush&hl=en&client=opera

---- McDonnell, John (TNS/Executive), (Zip code: 20195) $2000 to BILL MANGER FOR CONGRESS INC. on 04/22/04
McDonnell, John (TNS/Executive), (Zip code: 20195) $2000 to BILL MANGER FOR CONGRESS INC. on 09/29/04 ----

http://bmangerforcongress.meetup.com/

--- Meet other local supporters of Bill Manger, Republican from New York ---

[UpInArms]

33. U.S. Retail Sales Rise 3.9% on Discounts, New Apparel

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aL3BXYiNQr20&refer=us

Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. retail sales rose 3.9 percent last week over a year ago as last-minute shoppers stepped up purchases in the final stretch before Christmas.

The week ended Dec. 24 was the best so far of the season with comparable sales rising 2.8 percent from the previous week, the International Council of Shopping Centers said in a statement today. The New York-based trade group reaffirmed its forecast of a gain of 3 percent to 3.5 percent for the season.

Retailers including Macy's and Bloomingdale's slashed prices on cashmere and jewelry and brought in spring merchandise such as Bermuda shorts to boost sales. About 20 percent of holiday purchases are made in the week before Christmas, and 10 percent the week after, according to the ICSC.

<snip>

At Bloomingdale's on Dec. 26, women's cashmere was being snapped up at 25 percent to 30 percent off the discounted price. A cashmere turtleneck, for example, already had been offered for 30 percent off at $69.99. Macy's was selling a $4,000 white gold and diamond bracelet for $1,599.

...more...

Looks like the profit margin going to get hammered. :think:

[UpInArms]

37. 10:45 EST heading for the exits

Dow 10,781.38 +3.61 (+0.03%)
Nasdaq 2,223.11 -3.78 (-0.17%)
S&P 500 1,256.90 +0.36 (+0.03%)
10-Yr Bond 4.364 +0.23 (+0.53%)

NYSE Volume 337,030,000
Nasdaq Volume 312,141,000

10:30 am : Although they've edged back over the past half hour, the indices hold steadily above the unchanged mark. Following the fresh 52-week high it hit yesterday, gold is the morning's best performing industry group. Newmont Mining (NEM 52.79 +1.20), the group's solo component, has surged over 2% today and drives the Materials sector's second-place 0.4% gain. Alongside a 1% jump in the price of crude, to $58.85 per barrel, Energy continues to lead the session. The crude action has given traders reason to reclaim some of the sector's 2.6% slide yesterday, and broad-based buying has taken virtually all of the S&P's energy issues higher. As a side note, the spread between the two and 10-year Treasury notes remains flat; each presently yield 4.36%.DJ30 +20.41 NASDAQ +2.90 SP500 +2.43 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1209/1427/265.1 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 996/1918/212.2 mln

[Roland99]

42. High(er) Noon

DJIA 10,800.40 +22.60
Nasdaq 2,225.54 -1.35
S&P 500 1,258.70 +2.16
Russell 2000 676.68 +0.10
CBOE Volatility 11.43 -0.14
30 Yr Bond 4.50 0.00
10 Yr Bond 4.35 +0.01

[ozymandius]

45. 12:58 numbers and blather

Dow 10,797.55 +19.78 (+0.18%)
Nasdaq 2,224.79 -2.10 (-0.09%)
S&P 500 1,258.25 +1.71 (+0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 43.52 +0.11 (+0.25%)
NYSE Volume 731,639,000
Nasdaq Volume 643,161,000

12:30 pm : Holding static, the stock market leaves the major indices trading in mixed fashion. The dollar is on gaining ground today, rising against the yen and erasing a decline versus the euro. The morning's consumer confidence data, which reflected a better than expected 4.8% rise over November's read, spurred a two month gain of 22% after the September plunge tied to the hurricanes and the related gasoline price jump. The rebound returns the index to the pre-hurricane levels and the 106.2 three year high of June. While the data is not directly correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of real GDP, it nonetheless serves as a positive today and is bullish for the buck in that it stands as further indication of economic strength.DJ30 +25.14 NASDAQ -1.50 SP500 +2.14 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1552/1326/595.7 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1270/1875/477.9 mln

12:00 pm : Early optimism following yesterday's broad-based decline helped launch the indices higher, and a better than expected read on consumer confidence provided an additional - but fleeting - boost. Blue chip buyers dominate as the equity market begins the session's second half, but overall action is tepid amid thinned holiday trade and as traders' attention remains fixated upon the flat yield curve.

The corporate front has been a quiet one. The earnings calendar is virtually clear this week, and a lack of much market-moving news today leaves buyers and sellers alike without much trading catalyst. Eight of the ten economic sector trend higher, with Energy (+1.1%) leading after catching a delayed bid from running crude futures. The commodity's 1.7% jump has helped the sector erase some of yesterday's 2.6% plunge; by the same token, though, it's gone largely unnoticed by the broader market. The particularly energy price-sensitive Discretionary sector (+0.3%) maintains its footing, especially supported by retailers following a 4.8% month-over-month rise in consumer confidence, and ahead of next week's stream of same-store sales for the industry's crucial holiday shopping period. Target's (TGT 55.86 +0.28) reiteration of 4-5% growth, on the heels of Wal-Mart's (WMT 48.18 +0.45) reaffirmation Tuesday, has helped spur optimism ahead of the data. Upon winning a $1 billion U.S. Navy contract, Boeing (BA 70.86 +0.33) also made headlines this morning and helps keep Industrials (+0.1%) just above the unchanged mark.

Passive positions held by the market's two most influential sectors - Financial and Technology - effectively cap the indices' advances. While the yield curve has been flattening for some time, and though yesterday's inversion came on extremely light volume, it nonetheless put the Treasury market in the stock market's spotlight. Today's spread between the two-year and 10-year yields remains flat; both notes presently offer 4.34%. Reflective of, and contributing to, the broader market's action, trading within the rate-sensitive sector has been muted. Utilities, the other sector particularly sensitive to interest rates, levy a 0.2% decline. With respect to Tech, semiconductor equipment and electronics equipment stand as sore spots that have pulled the Nasdaq into the red. Verizon (VZ 30.24 -0.20) serves as another drag - following reports that it has agreed to settlement terms with Covad (DVW 0.99 +0.32) - that impacts the Tech and Telecom (-0.2%) sectors alike.
DJ30 +22.10 NASDAQ -1.39 SP500 +2.13 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1485/1368/524.8 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1128/1965/429.8 mln

[UpInArms]

46. Former Qwest executive pleads guilty to wire fraud

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-12-28T181842Z_01_N28385037_RTRIDST_0_MEDIA-QWEST-URGENT.XML

DENVER, Dec 28 (Reuters) - A former executive vice president of Qwest Communications International Inc (Q.N: Quote, Profile, Research) pleaded guilty on Wednesday to wire fraud, avoiding a trial that had been set to start Tuesday.

Marc Weisberg entered his plea in U.S. District Court in Denver as part of a plea bargain in which he agreed to cooperate with prosecutors.

[UpInArms]

49. A jolt in heating bills next month

http://timesunion.com/AspStories/storyprint.asp?StoryID=433950

ALBANY -- Residential electricity bills will be going up 20 percent starting next month for customers of National Grid in the Capital Region, the company said Tuesday.

The increase is due to an increase in wholesale natural gas prices. Natural gas is increasingly being burned as fuel by electric power plants, and nearly all new power plants are being built to burn gas.

Natural gas futures are trading at roughly $11 per 1,000 cubic feet, nearly double what the price was a year ago.

So when natural gas prices go up, electricity prices are following.

An electric bill of $70, which has been typical over the past two years for a household that uses 500 kilowatt-hours in a month, will jump to $85 in January. National Grid has 1.5 million electricity customers in the state and is a major electricity delivery company in the Capital Region.

...more...

[UpInArms]

52. 2:17 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,800.59 +22.82 (+0.21%)
Nasdaq 2,228.76 +1.87 (+0.08%)
S&P 500 1,259.22 +2.68 (+0.21%)
10-Yr Bond 4.366 +0.25 (+0.58%)

NYSE Volume 939,417,000
Nasdaq Volume 812,441,000

2:00 pm : Re-clearing the flat line, the Nasdaq has bounced back to join the blue chip indices on gaining ground. The Tech sector (+0.1%) has risen - albeit modestly - from the red and thereby allows the tech-heavy index to do the same. The biotech industry's recover also serves as a source of support for the index. Speaking of Healthcare (+0.2%), Celgene (CELG 60.32 +2.84) is one of the Composite's brightest spots. This morning, the company announced that the FDA has approved Revlimid for treatment of transfusion-dependent anemia; the potential market for the drug is estimated as high as $1 billion annually. Also, the Celgene announced a two-for-one stock split and a management change today; Bank of America has meanwhile upped its price target based on strong pricing and reduced regulatory risk for Revlimid's label extension after MDS approval.DJ30 +22.32 NASDAQ +1.35 SP500 +2.80 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1505/1477/777.6 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1186/2009/653.6 mln

1:30 pm : More of the same for the equity and Treasury markets alike... Although action is altogether lackluster, and while gains remain modest, blue chips continue to outperform the tech-heavy Nasdaq as well as small cap issues today. The Dow, which hit a two-month low yesterday, is split down the middle. Leading the advancing constituents is Wal-Mart (WMT 48.13 +0.40), trailed by 3M (MMM 77.97 +0.59) and Exxon Mobil (XOM 54.47 +0.60). The Dow and S&P 500 have each risen 0.2% while the Nasdaq has lost just over 0.1%. As for small cap issues, the Russell 2000 is up 0.1%. Meanwhile, as measured by the S&P 400, mid caps have advanced 0.4% on the day. The index extends its year-to-date outperformance and adds to its 11.4% gain on the year.DJ30 +15.05 NASDAQ -2.48 SP500 +1.47

[Roland99]

53. All's well that ends well

DJIA 10,796.30 +18.50
Nasdaq 2,228.94 +2.05
S&P 500 1,258.17 +1.63
Russell 2000 680.08 +3.50
CBOE Volatility 11.35 -0.22
30 Yr Bond 4.54 +0.03
10 Yr Bond 4.38 +0.04

[ozymandius]

54. and the blather

4:20 pm : Caught within a tight trading range for Wednesday's entirety, the market's major averages reflected an altogether monotonous session. Holiday thinned volume and traders' fixation upon the flat yield curve resulted in tepid action on either side of the fence, but buyers ultimately dominated and the indices managed to reclaim some of yesterday's losses.

A blank earnings calendar and an absence of market-moving corporate news left investors without much trading catalyst. Nonetheless, six of the ten economic sectors finished higher. A 2.9% surge in the price of crude futures contracts, to just under $60 per barrel, incited broad-based buying that helped the market's top year-to-date sector erase more than half of yesterday's plunge. While the crude action fostered Energy's market-leading 1.4% gain, it went largely unnoticed by the broader market. Despite oil's rise, the Dow Jones Transportation Average outperformed. On a related note, Industrials (+0.3%) received an added boost from Boeing (BA 70.99 +0.46), which scored a $1 billion contract from the U.S. Navy. Supported by relative strength in retailers, the particularly energy price-sensitive Discretionary sector clung to a 0.3% gain from open until close. Target's (TGT 55.54 -0.04) reiteration of expected 4-5% December same-store sales growth, on the heels of Wal-Mart's (WMT 47.84 +0.11) reaffirmation yesterday, spurred enthusiasm ahead of next week's data stream that will reflect sales during the industry's crucial holiday shopping season. While not directly correlated with consumer spending, today's read on consumer confidence, which reflected a four-month high and a return to pre-hurricane levels, stood as further indication of a economic strength.

Following yesterday's inversion, the yield curve occupied the stock market's spotlight over the course of today's trading. Although the inversion, which was the first in five years and traditionally signals an economic slowdown, was not much of a surprise as the spread between the two and 10-year notes has been flattening for some time, it still served as a somewhat of a bearish backdrop for equities today. Yields across the Treasury market shifted in parallel fashion; amid very light trading that suggests the action lacked real conviction, the curve remained flat with both two and 10-year bonds yielding 4.37%. To that end, the market's most rate-sensitive areas, the Financial (-0.2%) and Utilities (-0.3%) sectors, fared worst. The former sector's vacillation dictated the indices movement within their range, but its decline was not enough to submerge the broader market. Technology's passive stance helped to further cap advances, but additional gains in the Consumer Staples (+0.1%), Healthcare (+0.1%), and Materials (+0.7%) joined the aforementioned gainers in keeping the market modestly higher.
DJ30 +18.49 NASDAQ +2.05 SP500 +1.63 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1403/1640/1.22 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1162/2146/1.06 bln