STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 12 October

[ozymandius]

Wednesday October 12, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 101 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 296 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 360 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1417
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 11, 2005

Dow... 10,253.17 +14.41 (+0.14%)
Nasdaq... 2,061.09 -17.83 (-0.86%)
S&P 500... 1,184.87 -2.46 (-0.21%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.38% +0.02 (+0.53%)
Gold future... 479.80 +1.80 (+0.38%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [email protected]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Ike Iossif

CONSENSUS

MARKETVIEWS.TV GUEST CONSENSUS (10-9-05)

BEARISH

(15) BULLS; (24) BEARS; (11) NEUTRAL

Although the Consensus is currently bearish, the real important development is that it had been "Neutral" for 79 out of the last 122 trading days. Why is it significant? It is significant because our guest list was constructed with a specific design and goal in mind. All guests are "objective disciplinarians," in other words their position on the market is derived mainly from a specific methodology that has proven itself over time, and takes into account very little, if none at all, qualitative analysis. The reason for that, is because a) we wanted to assure consistency, and b) by knowing the specific methodology employed by each guest, we avoided having one "school of thought" being over-represented in the poll, which would have compromised its integrity and usefulness as a tool.

It is quite rare for so many different methodologies to be giving "neutral" signals for so long because it implies that the market itself has been giving a very contradicting account of itself during that period. The fact that many different methodologies are unable to render a clear cut signal means that the market's "internal contradiction" is for real. Usually, markets undergo such a period prior to a major change. One thing that we must keep in mind is this; periods of contradiction do not mean that a "change" will certainly take place; what they do mean is that the odds are in favor of change, and it will take something extraordinary, and exogenous, in order to reverse the dynamics that are currently present in the market.

In conclusion, my interpretation of the Consensus' reading the past 4 months is that "mentally" investors ought to prepare themselves for possibly a dramatic change in the market's behavior over the next 4-6 months.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Crude Oil Prices Climb in Asia

SINGAPORE - Crude oil prices rose in Asia Wednesday, extending an earlier spike on fears that a recent dip in demand would be short-lived.

Forecasts of a possible shortage of petroleum products into 2006 also sent prices skyward, with the OECD energy watchdog warning refineries they would need to pump at full tilt to keep pace with demand.

Light, sweet crude for November on the New York Mercantile Exchange surged as much as 42 cents to $63.95 a barrel as Asian electronic trading hours began, before easing to $63.66 midmorning in Singapore. In New York, the front-month contract jumped $1.73 to close at $63.53 Tuesday after the Paris-based International Energy Agency said demand would fall for the rest of the year but rebound in 2006.

The IEA, the energy watchdog for industrialized countries, cautioned of a prolonged loss of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, saying output in non-OPEC supplies in 2005 and 2006 would fall by 300,000-400,000 barrels per day. It also said its member nations may have to dip into reserves to meet demand.

more

[ozymandius]

3. Fall-off in demand for oil is temporary, says IEA

Global oil consumption is expected to increase by 1.75m barrels a day next year to total 85.2m b/d, suggesting that a recent fall-off in demand is temporary, the International Energy Agency, the industrialised countries' watchdog, said on Tuesday.

-cut-

Oil consuming countries seeking to diversify their supplies will in fact have to rely more on the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, the IEA added. Growth in oil supply from outside Opec is expected to fall to a six-year low this year, largely because of the shutdown in production caused by hurricanes Katrina and Rita in the US Gulf of Mexico in August and September.

For 2006, the IEA revised its forecast of non-Opec supply down 335,000 b/d to an average of 50.3m b/d.

Delays and declining production in Canada, the UK, Asia and Sudan are expected to damp production growth next year. The massive damage to platforms and rigs caused by Katrina and Rita will be felt outside the US as well, increasing costs and causing rig shortages in places such as the Middle East, where two of the rigs damaged by Rita had been scheduled to move this year.

more...

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/bfe9ff02-3a89-11da-b0d3-00000e2511c8.html

[UpInArms]

20. Nov Crude Futures @ $63.80 bbl - NatGas @ $13.625 mln btus

7:23am 10/12/05 NOV CRUDE FUTURES UP 27C AT $63.80 A BARREL

7:23am 10/12/05 NOV UNLEADED GASOLINE FUTURES UP 0.38C AT $1.837/GALLON

7:24am 10/12/05 NOV HEATING OIL UP 0.68C AT $2.0247 A GALLON

7:24am 10/12/05 NOV NATGAS FUTURES UP 10.60C AT $13.625 PER MILLION BTUS

[King Coal]

31. Still time to buy coal stocks. Get 'em while they're hot!

BTU CNX MEE all good buys.

[UpInArms]

59. Crude futures climb to a one-week high near $64

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38637.424949537-845616561&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) --November crude is up 12 cents at $63.65 a barrel in early trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after rising as high as $63.75, a level not se since Oct. 5. "The energy complex looks like it may have found its seasonal October low," said Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Alaron Trading. "A slew of reports" from the Energy Department on Wednesday, and the International Energy Agency and American Gas Associationon on Tuesday, as well as "our friends at the Fed, had energy traders reassessing all the talk about demand destruction and instead focus on the reality of tightness of supply," said Flynn.

[UpInArms]

65. Oil climbs to one-week high atop $64 (@ $64.15 bbl)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B8A70E0B6%2D78EB%2D42C5%2D8730%2D3414AB062C59%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures climbed past $64 a barrel Wednesday, the highest in a week, as traders assessed the latest industry reports offering various predictions on demand.

Petroleum supply data from the Energy Department will be released on Thursday, a day later than usual due to the Columbus Day holiday.

In recent dealings, crude for November delivery traded as high as $64.50 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract was last at $64.15 a barrel, up 62 cents.

On Wednesday, the government's Energy Information Administration cut its estimate for worldwide petroleum demand growth.

In its monthly update on the short-term energy outlook, the EIA said it sees petroleum demand growth remaining strong in 2005 and 2006 but slowing from 2004 levels, averaging 1.8% per year over the two-year period compared with 3.2% in 2004.

...more...

[UpInArms]

109. Crude futures close at a more than 1-week high ($64.12 bbl/NatGas $13.524)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38637.6331504514-845655613&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- November crude rose 59 cents to close at $64.12 a barrel in New York, its highest closing price since Oct. 3. Traders assessed government demand estimates ahead of a report Thursday that's expected to show a climb in crude inventories and a fall in crude-product supplies. The weekly report will be released a day late because of Monday's Columbus Day holiday. November natural gas closed nearly flat, up 0.05 cent at $13.524 per million British thermal units. November heating oil fell 0.22 cent to end at $2.0157 a gallon and November unleaded gas ended at $1.8276 a gallon, down 0.56 cent.

[ozymandius]

4. Job search times on the rise

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The amount of time it takes to find a job is up again, after months of steady declines, as the jump in energy prices following hurricanes Katrina and Rita may be tempering corporate hiring plans, a new survey said Tuesday.

The survey of 3,000 job seekers by job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed the median amount of time it took for someone to find a job in the third quarter was 3.6 months, up 16 percent from 3.1 months the previous quarter. The median means that half of job seekers spent a longer time looking while the other half had a shorter job search.

The jump brought the search time to the longest since 3.96 months in the third quarter of last year.

John Challenger, CEO of the company that conducted the survey, said the increase may be a sign of the additional risks employers see.

more

[ozymandius]

5. Wall St futures off after Apple drop

LONDON (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures pointed to a weaker start for Wall Street on Wednesday as an after-hours sell-off in Apple Computer worried a market already anxious about possible further interest rate hikes.

After regular trading hours, Apple reported quarterly revenue which missed analysts' expectations, sending its shares nearly 11 percent lower and threatening to again erode a tech sector that edged lower in the previous session.

"Apple's poor figures after the bell last night mean that the U.S. futures point to a negative start for U.S. equity indices this afternoon ... Apple is trading in Europe around 3.22 euros lower, indicating a decline of $4 when U.S. markets open later," said Angus Campbell at spread betters Finspreads.

-cut-

Inflation concerns held center stage ahead of an array of speeches by
Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Alan Greenspan at 0830 EDT. Minutes from the Fed's last policy meeting revealed that central bankers are keen to raise interest rates further to curb inflation exacerbated by high oil prices.

more

[TrogL]

79. What do they WANT from Apple?

US$ 450 million in sales on a hot-selling product.

What more could you ask?

[ozymandius]

6. Today's report: crude inventories

Oct 12 10:30 AM
previous -246K
forecast n/a

The latter part of the week will bring a slew of data.

[UpInArms]

66. Oil Inventories to be delay one day ('til tomorrow) due to Monday holiday

per link in post #65

[UpInArms]

7. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 89.87 Change -0.10 (-0.11%)

Fed Comments to Continue to Drive Dollar Rally

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4129&Itemid=39

US Dollar - It was another great day for the US dollar, which gained strength against all of the major currencies. Much like yesterday, there was little to drive the move with only the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September 20th meeting on deck. Like we expected, the minutes delivered no new surprises. FOMC members were wary about growing inflation pressures going into the meeting and believed that that before Katrina, employment and growth were growing at a healthy pace. As for Katrina, they were uncertain about the significance of the impact – which recent data suggests was limited. The overall optimism in the dollar continues to drive momentum in greenback despite external pressures such as rising oil prices. The market seems to have made a test of the October highs against the euro its goal for the moment. It remains to be seen though how much longer the US consumer can hold out in the face of rebounding oil prices, higher interest rates and a slowing housing market. Although we have another quiet day economic data wise tomorrow there are a number of Fed officials scheduled to speak on various topics related to the economy. Fed Chairman Greenspan is slated to speak on Economic Flexibility while Fed Presidents Kohn, Olson and Bies will be speaking on globalization, inflation, the economy in general and fiscal policy. We expect Federal Reserve officials to jump at this opportunity to pat themselves on the back for downplaying the significance of Hurricane Katrina and the need to continue to be vigilant in the face of growing inflation pressures. So what does this mean for the dollar? At this point, 1.1900 looks very much at risk.

[WCGreen]

18. Correct me if I am wrong, but if the dollar conitinues to rise....

Wouldn't that cause the price of oil to drop....

Cause part of the run up in the price of oil had to do with the sharp decline in value of the dollar last year and early this year....

IMHO, of course....

[UpInArms]

21. that is what is supposed to happen in theory

but the reality may be quite different. Gold has now seemingly "untied" from the dollar and oil could do the same.

[ozymandius]

43. And if that is the case -

could we see the price of oil migrating to another form of currency if, once oil becomes untied to the dollar, pterodollars become worth-less?

Just wondering.

[UpInArms]

47. well, if oil is priced in currencies other than the dollar

another scenario then kicks in - with the dollar not being necessary for other countries to purchase oil, the daily "churn" effect would evaporate - no one would need the dollar and the value of this "faith-based" currency would literally be wiped out.

[ozymandius]

70. Thanks UIA!

My gut felt the answer that my brain was unable to articulate. At such a point, the armed forces may need to switch enlistment bonuses away from dollars and toward chickens and pigs.

[UpInArms]

8. GM's CEO feels the heat as troubles mount

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-10-12T054821Z_01_ROB217556_RTRUKOC_0_US-AUTOS-GM.xml

DETROIT (Reuters) - It's autumn in Detroit but General Motors Corp. (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) Chairman and Chief Executive Rick Wagoner is feeling searing summer heat.

The pressure is mounting on Wagoner with its main auto parts supplier in bankruptcy, GM's share price near multiyear lows and its once-robust sales of gas-guzzling SUVs stalled.

And now he has legendary corporate financier Kirk Kerkorian breathing down his neck and demanding a seat on the GM board. Kerkorian got some help from the U.S. government on Tuesday, when it said he could increase his ownership stake in GM from the 9.5 percent he now holds.

"The heat is excruciatingly high," said Gerald Meyers, a former Detroit auto executive who now teaches business at the University of Michigan.

While GM remains the world's largest automaker -- though, it seems likely to slip behind Toyota Motor Corp. (7203.T: Quote, Profile, Research) within the next few years -- it remains mired in red ink and rating agencies are taking an increasingly dim view of its prospects, with Standard & Poor's cutting its debt further into high-yield or "junk" status on Monday.

...more...

[UpInArms]

91. Kirk Kerkorian ups stake in GM to 9.9% from 9.53%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38637.5223032755-845634232&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Kirk Kerkorian, through his Tracinda Corp. investment group, has raised his stake in General Motors Corp. (GM) to 9.9% from 9.53%, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission Wednesday. A day earlier, the billionaire investor purchased 2.1 million of the automaker's shares on the open market at an average price of $26.98. The purchase took place after it, along with Kerkorian's plan to obtain a seat on GM's board, was cleared by the Federal Trade Commission.

[UpInArms]

9. (Appaloosa Partners Inc.) Hedge fund says has 9.3 pct stake in Delphi

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=fundsNews2&storyID=URI:urn:newsml:reuters.com:20051012:MTFH75253_2005-10-12_08-47-45_N12520335:1

NEW YORK, Oct 12 (Reuters) - Appaloosa Partners Inc., a New Jersey-based hedge fund that invests in securities from distressed companies, has amassed a 9.3 percent equity stake in Delphi Corp (DPHIQ.PK: Quote, Profile, Research), an auto parts-maker that sought bankruptcy protection last week.

The firm disclosed its stake in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing on Tuesday.

Appaloosa is controlled by David Tepper, a former head of junk-bond trading at Goldman Sachs (GS.N: Quote, Profile, Research).

Two vehicles controlled by the firm, Delaware-registered Appaloosa Investment Limited Partnership I and Palomino Fund Ltd., a British Virgin Islands corporation, together owned 52 million shares as of Monday.

Troy, Michigan-based Delphi had 561.4 million outstanding shares on June 30.

Delphi shares, which now trade in the over-the-counter Pink Sheets market, closed Tuesday at 30-1/2 cents. They closed at 33 cents on Monday, their final day of trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "DPH".

...more...

Troy, Michigan-based Delphi had 561.4 million outstanding shares on June 30.

Delphi shares, which now trade in the over-the-counter Pink Sheets market, closed Tuesday at 30-1/2 cents. They closed at 33 cents on Monday, their final day of trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "DPH".

[UpInArms]

10. Refco tumbles again as scandal over CEO widens

http://today.reuters.com/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2005-10-12T101218Z_01_L12374778_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-REFCO-SHARES-UPDATE-5-RPT.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 11 (Reuters) - The scandal over the removal of the chief executive of Refco Inc. <RFX.N> widened on Tuesday, as the commodities and futures broker disclosed that debts hidden through a company he controlled are mostly uncollectable and stretched as far back as 1998.

Refco's troubles, first revealed Monday, have more than halved its share price and forced the company to contact regulators as it faces an expected barrage of lawsuits.

New York-based Refco, which went public two months ago in a $583 million initial public offering, said in a statement on Tuesday that a $430 million receivable held by a company controlled by former chief executive Phillip Bennett was hidden at the bottom of quarterly and annual reports.

<snip>

"The real interesting story is, do people still trust them, because if they don't their whole balance sheet will collapse," said Robert Bushman, a forensic accounting professor at University of North Carolina in Chapel Hill.

...more...

[UpInArms]

11. Refco deals meant to boost financials-accountants

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-11T230030Z_01_N11505636_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-REFCO-ACCOUNTING.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 11 (Reuters) - A series of transactions at Refco Inc. (RFX.N: Quote, Profile, Research) were likely geared to make the futures broker's balance sheet look stronger than it really was, accountants said on Tuesday.

Refco said on Monday that its board of directors had asked its chief executive, Phillip Bennett, to take a leave of absence, after learning that he had failed to disclose transactions he had entered into with the company.

Refco has hired independent counsel and forensic auditors to investigate. But its shares fell more than 51 percent in two days as investors fretted about what went on in the past and how it might impact the future.

Refco said entities controlled by Bennett owed $430 million to the futures broker. Third parties incurred the debt and transferred it to entities controlled by Bennett, Refco said.

Though Bennett has paid off the entire $430 million, much of it was not otherwise collectible, Refco said.

Had the payout not taken place, Refco could have been forced to write off much of the $430 million, accounting experts said.

That would be a bitter pill for a company with just $500 million of equity to swallow, because it would make Refco look much weaker, said Robert Bushman, forensic accounting professor at University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (UNC).

...more...

[UpInArms]

12. Thomas H. Lee may have lost US$635mil in Refco

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2005/10/12/business/12294475&sec=business

NEW YORK: Thomas H. Lee Partners LP, the US buyout firm that's raising US$7.5bil for a new fund, may have lost as much as US$635 million from its investment in Refco Inc, two months after an initial public offering by the New York-based futures broker.

Shares of Refco plunged 45% on Monday, erasing than US$1.6bil of market value, after the company said chairman and chief executive officer Phillip R. Bennett took leave of absence. An internal review found he owed the US$430mil.

“We're still trying to find out when and at what amount the receivable was assumed by a company controlled by Bennett,'' said Scott Schoen, co-president of Thomas H. Lee Partners, in an interview. The Boston-based firm held 49 million Refco shares as of Aug 30.

Thomas H. Lee Partners said its stake in Refco has more than doubled in value, even after the stock's decline. The firm invested US$453mil in Refco in August 2004. It returned US$177mil to investors after Refco's Aug 11 IPO, Thomas H. Lee Partners said in a statement. When the gain is combined with the US$765mil market value of its remaining shares, the value of the fund's investment has risen 108% in 15 months.

Thomas H. Lee, the firm's 61-year-old billionaire chairman, probably will face questions from investors about how it was surprised by Refco, said Geoff Bobroff, an investment consultant in East Greenwich, Rhode Island. “He has to come armed to explain it away,'' Bobroff said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

13. Black eye for burgeoning futures industry

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/78a9a936-3aa6-11da-b0d3-00000e2511c8.html

The invitations are already landing for Futures and Options 05 in Chicago next month, a banner event for a derivatives sector which has enjoyed unprecedented growth over the past 12 months.

The mood was expected to be celebratory, both because of record trading volumes being enjoyed by participants and its success in attracting fresh funding as the business met the investment challenge of taking its risk-management products to a global client base with electronic, round-the-clock trading.

The accounting irregularities surrounding Refco, one of the industry’s most high-profile and innovative participants, could not have come at a worse time and threaten to dampen the mood of participants broader than Refco and its client base.

Refco is the largest of the independent brokers – known as futures commission merchants (FCM) – in competition with the brokerage arms of larger banks such as Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, JP Morgan and UBS. The company ranked fifth in terms of US customer segregated funds, a standard industry measure, following its acquisition of Cargill Investor Services in August.

It was also the largest source of customer-transaction volume on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the world’s largest futures exchange. Refco’s initial public offering in August built on the momentum generated by the CME’s own flotation at the end of 2002; since then its share price has climbed almost 10-fold. This in turn has influenced the decision of the Chicago Board of Trade to go public, an issue due as early as next week.

“When the CME went public, everyone goes ‘Wow, there’s gold in our hills,’” says one industry observer. “But when you see the first standalone broker , that doesn’t help the industry at all.”

...more...

[UpInArms]

22. Refco used hedge fund in $430M flap

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BDF01D229%2D7FD8%2D4297%2D9DD8%2DDDEBAAC81CEA%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Refco's suspended chief Phillip Bennett allegedly used a hedge fund to disguise $430 million in debts to the company, media reports on Wednesday said.

Liberty Corner Capital was paid for telling Refco's auditors that it owed the debts even though Bennett's companies owed the money, the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times both reported, each citing anonymous sources.

Refco (RFX: news, chart, profile) shares shed another 11% Tuesday in their second big decline following the company's disclosure of a $430 million payment from Bennett for an "undisclosed affiliate transaction." Bennett has repaid the money, the company said on Monday.

...more...

edited to add the following article:

Refco chief 'used hedge fund to mask debt'

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/9668243/

excerpt:

People close to Refco's internal review said it was unclear how and why the $430m of debts had arisen.

They said the debts could represent personal trading losses by Mr Bennett or sums owed by Refco's clients, and possibly incurred during the Russian and Asian financial crises in the late 1990s.

Refco said it believed the receivable consisted "in major part of uncollectible historical obligations owed by unrelated third parties to that arose as far back as at least 1998".

The broker said: "The fact the receivable was from a company controlled by Mr Bennett was hidden at the end of quarterly and annual reporting periods by reasons of transfers to a third-party customer account."

Liberty is believed to be the holder of the third-party customer account but people close to the internal review said it was unclear whether the fund had knowingly assisted Mr Bennett's efforts to disguise the $430m of debts. The debts appeared to have been moved from the company controlled by Mr Bennett to New Jersey-based Liberty just before the end of each quarter and subsequently passed back, said people familiar with the internal review.

...more...

[UpInArms]

60. Goldman Sachs says uncertainty persists at Refco

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7BD0A4BBF4-CD4C-4C18-B05A-C12F556AB368%7D&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Goldman Sachs analysts on Wednesday said they continue to rate Refco (RFX) shares as in-line, but cautioned, they "would not be buyers until we have more conviction that there are no more major governance or disclosure issues yet to be revealed." Refco shares fell 17% to $11.45 in recent trades. Refco disclosed an SEC probe on Tuesday into a $430 million payment by its on-leave chief Phillip Bennett.

[ozymandius]

71. The real interesting story is... Refco mirrors our financial system.

I infer this to represent "faith based" capitalism. If you lose faith in the foundation, the system loses its ability to function.

[converted_democrat]

89. Sorry, posted to wrong spot...

[UpInArms]

14. US Gulf rebuilding to help jobs rebound-Bernanke

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-12T000049Z_01_N11506694_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-BERNANKE.XML

WASHINGTON, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Rebuilding in the U.S. Gulf should spark a recovery in the region's battered employment market, either by creating new work or bringing back jobs lost to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, White House economic adviser Ben Bernanke said on Tuesday.

In a speech to the National Economists Club in Washington, the former Federal Reserve governor -- regarded as one of the top contenders to succeed Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan when he retires in January -- painted an upbeat economic picture.

"As the Gulf rebuilds, I am confident that those lost jobs will return or be replaced by new ones and that healthy growth in output and employment will resume at the national level," Bernanke, who is now chairman of President George W. Bush's Council of Economic Advisers, said in his prepared remarks.

"The U.S. economy is currently in a strong and sustainable expansion, and prospects for growth look good," he added.

The Congressional Budget Office estimated late last month that the economic hit from the two hurricanes would prove relatively modest, with the deadly storms shaving perhaps half a percentage point off gross domestic product growth in 2005.

...more...

[UpInArms]

15. Figures question benefit of U.S. pension proposals

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-11T232648Z_01_N11480880_RTRIDST_0_CONGRESS-PENSIONS.XML

WASHINGTON, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Finances at the deficit-ridden agency that insures corporate pensions would be worse over time under legislation designed to fix its problems than if current funding rules were left in place, figures provided to lawmakers by the agency showed on Tuesday.

Until now, the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp has not responded to claims -- mainly by congressional Democrats -- that competing bills in the Republican-led House of Representatives and Senate to overhaul pension funding rules would fall short of fixing its problems.

"This analysis shows that neither the House nor the Senate has come up with legislation to stop the erosion of Americans' retirement security and prevent a taxpayer bailout of the private pension system," said Rep. George Miller of California, the senior Democrat on the House Education and Workforce Committee.

The agency is running a $23 billion deficit as big corporations -- mainly in the steel and airline industries -- have defaulted on employee pension plans in recent years. It also faces the prospect this year of possible pension defaults at bankrupt carriers Northwest Airlines (NWAC.O: Quote, Profile, Research) and Delta Air Lines (DAL.N: Quote, Profile, Research). Auto parts giant Delpi Corp. is also in Chapter 11 with huge pension liabilities.

<snip>

The PBGC confirmed the figures sought by Miller's office that compared a mean assumption of projected liabilities from claims under current funding rules against liability estimates that would accumulate under provisions of the two big congressional proposals. The PBGC's red ink would be $700 million higher under the House plan over 10 years and $1.5 billion higher under the Senate version, the figures show.

...more...

[UpInArms]

16. U.S. mortgage applications fell in latest week-MBA

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-12T110051Z_01_NAT001837_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-MORTGAGES-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 12 (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage applications fell for a third consecutive week as interest rates on 30-year home loans climbed to their highest levels since late March, an industry trade group said on Wednesday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity for the week ended Oct. 7 slid 2.6 percent to 694.8 -- its lowest level since mid-April.

Borrowing costs on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, excluding fees, averaged 5.98 percent last week, up 0.04 percentage point from 5.94 percent the prior week. The average 30-year rate touched its highest level since the week ended March 25 when it hit 6.08 percent, its highest level of the year.

The MBA's seasonally adjusted purchase mortgage index fell 0.9 percent to 469.5. The index, considered a timely gauge on U.S. home sales, declined for a fourth consecutive week to its lowest level since May 27.

...more...

[UpInArms]

81. Freddie Mac sees gradual mortgage-rate rise in 2006

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38637.500154213-845630133&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Rising energy costs and stronger U.S. economic growth should result in higher mortgage rates in 2006, Freddie Mac's (FRE) top economists estimated Wednesday. In an economic outlook report, the economists said overall demand for homes will ease in 2006, dampened by higher rates. The appreciation of home values will also slow next year, as will housing starts. Efforts to reconstruct areas hit by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita may add extra costs to building new homes, the Freddie economists said.

12:00pm 10/12/05 MORTGAGE ORIGINATIONS $2.6 TRILLION IN 2006, FREDDIE SAYS

12:00pm 10/12/05 FREDDIE SEES HOUSING STARTS DECLINING IN 2006

12:00pm 10/12/05 FREDDIE MAC: HOME-VALUE APPRECIATION TO SLOW IN 2006

12:00pm 10/12/05 OVERALL DEMAND FOR HOME SALES TO EASE IN 2006: FREDDIE MAC

12:00pm 10/12/05 FREDDIE: 30-YEAR FIXED RATE MORTGAGE 6.4% BY DEC. 2006

12:00pm 10/12/05 FREDDIE MAC SEES GRADUAL MORTGAGE RATE RISE IN 2006

[UpInArms]

17. Fed raised rates after Katrina to look cool

(appearances are everything - reality is nothing :eyes: )

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20051012/IBFED12/TPInternational/Americas

WASHINGTON -- The Federal Reserve Board raised U.S. interest rates in September partly from concern a pause might mislead people into thinking it was too worried about the economic impact of hurricane Katrina.

Minutes of the Sept. 20 closed-door discussions revealed increased concerns among Fed policy makers about inflation due to a surge in the price of gasoline and other energy products after hurricane-related production shutdowns.

However, Fed officials said they believed Katrina's hit to economic growth would prove to be temporary. The Fed's policy-setting committee expressed concerns that not raising rates at the September meeting would send the wrong signal about its view of the economy's underlying soundness.

The central bank did boost the federal funds rate to 3.75 per cent at its Sept. 20 meeting, marking the 11th consecutive increase since it began gradually raising rates in June, 2004.

Since the Fed meeting, several members of the policy-setting committee have expressed concerns in various speeches that inflation pressures have increased because of soaring energy costs. Right after Katrina hit, crude oil prices briefly topped $70 (U.S.) a barrel in intraday trading in New York, while the U.S. average for gasoline climbed for a time above $3 a gallon.

...more...

[AnneD]

49. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: I read alot and I saw the other day they were going to make a sequel to The 6th Sense. It follows the boy (Haley)into adulthood. He becomes a financier on Wall St. He continues to walk around saying "I see debt, people" . Of course everyone doesn't believe him except psychics, Democrates, animals, and crazy people. Happy Hunting and watch out for the bears.
edited because I can't figure out how half the joke got deleted...must have offended the spirits.....

[UpInArms]

50. I wonder if all of the spinning heads

have their hands over their eyes, the fingers in their ears and a talking point pre-recorded message spewing from their lips?


The estimated population of the United States is 297,411,289
so each citizen's share of this debt is $26,866.31.

[UpInArms]

19. Dec Gold Futures up $2.40 to $482.20 oz

7:25am 10/12/05 DEC GOLD FUTURES UP $2.40 AT $482.20 AN OUNCE

[UpInArms]

23. Gold at fresh 18-year high on inflation worries

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38637.3150731019-845599006&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures climbed to a fresh 18-year high in early electronic trade Wednesday, after Federal Reserve governor Donald Kohn reignited concerns about global inflation. Gold for December delivery was last rading up $2.60 at $482.40 an ounce, having earlier touched a high of $483.10. Kohn said late Tuesday that the popular notion that globalization in the form of cheap imports from India and China have suppressed inflation for good is a fairy tale. In fact, Fed researchers have found that goods from emerging countries such as China have only had a "modest disinflationary effect," Kohn said in a speech prepared for delivery at The College of Wooster in Wooster. Ohio. Inflation will still rise if central banks allow economies to run "too hot" and that trend could become self-pertuating if it becomes embedded in inflation expecations. Separately, the Fed said in a summary of its Sept. 20 meeting that the risks of inflation have risen since the hurricanes struck the Gulf Coast.

[UpInArms]

24. Fresno number one in concentrated poverty pockets; New Orleans, number two

http://www.katc.com/Global/story.asp?S=3968066

Hurricane Katrina revealed New Orleans' pockets of deep poverty to the nation, but a new study finds even more concentrated poverty in Fresno, California.

The Brookings Institution study, using Census data, puts New Orleans at number two, followed by Louisville, Kentucky; Miami, and Atlanta.In such areas, 40 percent of residents or more are below the poverty line. Forty percent of adults are unemployed and not looking for work. The pockets also have high crime, and lack quality housing, jobs and schools.The conditions are said to ensnare each generation, because children lack funds, role models and the education footing to get them into college. The erosion to city tax bases also limits funds needed to address problems including the lack of affordable housing.

...short blurb...

[UpInArms]

26. more info:

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/apus_story.asp?category=1110&slug=Poverty%20Study

excerpt:

These are areas in which 40 percent or more of residents live below the federal poverty line. The average household earnings in these areas barely exceed $20,000, and four in 10 adults are disconnected from the labor force - unemployed and not looking for work.

"We're underserved, under-respected. ... You have to leave your community to get the most basic services," said Rev. Paul Binion II of Fresno's Westside Church of God.

One result of high-density poverty is its tendency to ensnare the next generation, the study suggests. In these communities, where an average of one in 12 adults have college degrees, children lack the money, role models and academic footing that would help them get into college themselves.

"It's access," said Tate Hill, business development coordinator for the Fresno West Coalition for Economic Development. "It's not that people who live in impoverished areas don't want to work or don't want better lives or don't want their children to go to good schools - they just can't access it."

...more...

[UpInArms]

25. Snow 'Astonished' by Changes in Shanghai

http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/ap/2005/10/12/ap2272141.html

U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said he was "astonished" by Shanghai's economic transformation Wednesday as he began a visit expected to focus on China's currency policies and its huge and growing trade surplus with the United States.

Speaking above the trading floor of this city's showcase stock exchange, which was virtually empty because transactions are all automated, Does that bring Enron to anyone else's mind? Snow said he was stunned by Shanghai's dramatic transformation from a crumbling relic of central planning into a modern commercial hub.

"I'm astonished every time I come to see how much has happened since the last time I came," Snow said. Compared with 10 years ago, "the changes are nothing short of breathtaking."

Yet Snow urged China to move even faster in pushing ahead with reforms of its nascent capital markets, which still lag behind the rest of the booming economy. China allows only limited foreign exchange trading, its bond and other financial products markets are in their infancy, and most companies choose to list shares not on domestic bourses but in Hong Kong and elsewhere.

...more...

[hatrack]

34. Gee another "surprised" ChimpCo economist

What a shock. Not.

[UpInArms]

27. High Heating Bills and Global Warming?

8:21am 10/12/05 NOAA SEE WARMER-THAN-NORMAL WINTER FOR MOST OF U.S.

:shrug:

[UpInArms]

30. U.S. heating bills to increase by up to 48% this winter

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38637.3626283681-845605579&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. households that heat with natural gas are likely to spend about $350 or 48% more this winter than last winter, the Energy Department said Wednesday. Homes that rely on heating oil can expect to pay $378 or 32% more than a year earlier. Households that use propane will pay roughly $325 or 30% more. Electricity heating bills are expected to increase by $38 or 5%. If the winter brings colder than normal weather, however, heating costs would be significantly higher, the Energy Information Agency, the statistical arm of the Energy Department, said in its winter fuels outlook.

[Nickster]

53. These numbers are on the low side. I've projected my heat bill out to

March of next year, and I'm easily paying 700 dollars more than I did last year. That's calculating therms at 1.50 for the entire winter and my gas company is already at 1.17 a therm for October.

This month last year, I was paying .58 a therm, now paying 1.17. That's a 50% increase per therm. I can't wait to see what next month's price increase is going to be like, my guess is 1.36.

[UpInArms]

28. Supreme Court Bolsters S.E.C.'s Ability to Freeze (Executive's) Pay

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/12/business/12bizcourt.html?pagewanted=all

WASHINGTON, Oct. 11 (Dow Jones/AP) - The Supreme Court on Tuesday let stand a ruling against two former executives of Gemstar-TV Guide International, bolstering the ability of the Securities and Exchange Commission to freeze payments to corporate executives under federal accounting fraud law.

The S.E.C. gained the ability to block payments to executives in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002, passed by Congress in response to a succession of big-name corporate accounting frauds.

The commission used the provision in its investigation of a $250 million accounting fraud scandal at Gemstar, which owns TV Guide, by freezing $37 million in termination payments to the former chief executive, Henry C. Yuen, and the former chief financial officer, Elsie M. Leung, while its investigation was pending.

Mr. Yuen and Ms. Leung appealed the payment freeze, asserting that their termination fees and unpaid salaries did not meet the "extraordinary payments" requirement the law set for holding up money to corporate officers.

...more...

[UpInArms]

29. Washed-Up Has-Been Partisan Hack Spews as *Co pulls his string

Greenspan: Flexibility allows economy to handle trouble

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={5130F4B6-0A2D-40D0-9070-8E9CB9A573E9}&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Fed chairman Alan Greenspan repeated a favorite theme in a speech Wednesday morning: deregulation over the past 20 years has created a flexible economy that can absorb and recover from shocks that would have caused deep recessions in decades past. Greenspan's speech to the National Italian American Foundation was almost identical to a speech he gave to the National Association of Business Economics on Sept. 27. He did not address the affects of two hurricanes that struck the Gulf Coast in late August and September. But he said that the flexibility of the economy has allowed the economy, so far, "to weather reasonably well the steep rise in spot and futures prices for oil and natural gas that we have experienced over the past two years."

This is the same POS that complained when oil was $1.39 under Clinton - saying it was a "rapid" rise - but now....

this Partisan Piece of Flotsam thinks that our "economy is flexible"?

[AnneD]

100. Hi UIA,

Let me help you with the translation of Greenspinspeak...when he talks about a 'flexiable economy' that can assorb and recover from shock...he mean the average middle class consumer no longer needs KY jelly........Hope that clears it up fer ya......

[54anickel]

32. Life on Financial Edge to Get Tougher

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-credit12oct12,1,5310679.story?coll=la-headlines-business

snip>

But for those living close to the financial edge, the combination of higher credit card minimums and rising consumer costs — especially for gasoline — could push them over the brink.

Bankruptcy offers one means of respite for these people, but starting Monday that option will be much tougher to pursue. New rules will make it harder for people to qualify for Chapter 7 liquidation bankruptcies, in which they surrender most assets to creditors in return for wiping out their debt.

"No one could imagine that all of these things would line up at exactly the same time," said Bradford G. Stroh, chief executive of Freedom Financial Network, a debt-counseling firm based in Northern California. "But they are all hitting the American consumer in the fourth quarter of 2005. On the heels of that, the overleveraged consumer's one parachute was Chapter 7 bankruptcy and that parachute is closing."

snip>

For example, Citibank charges its higher risk cardholders about 29% a year, or 2.42% a month, in interest. Until recently, it allowed these cardholders to make minimum payments that amounted to only 2.08% of their balance each month, spokeswoman Janis Tarter said.

For a $10,000 balance, that would be a payment of $208. But that cardholder would accrue $242 a month in interest — allowing the debt to grow by $34, even after paying the minimum.

more...

[AnneD]

56. more suprised economists

:eyes: I'm shocked, shocked.

[54anickel]

33. Katrina Bond Bailout No Sure Thing, Snow Reminds Us

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_mysak&sid=aqaCQWGYdCss

snip>

``We should not set a precedent that the taxpayer is the first-dollar insurer in all disasters,'' Snow said. ``A federal bailout in the form of Treasury guaranteeing municipal securities could result in a risk premium on Treasury issuance going forward.'' Investors buy Treasuries ``with the expectation they will not be obligated for state and local bonds.''

This means the Bush administration opposes a federal guarantee of new bonds, as well as the billions of dollars in bonds sold by Louisiana and Mississippi localities.

And this means that, unless the state governments somehow come to the rescue, bondholders can expect defaults in MuniLand. Even if half of the bonds that default are insured, we're probably still talking about millions of dollars in missed payments.

snip>

Great Depression

Investors haven't had this kind of scare since the Great Depression, which means, for most of them, never. They have come to depend on municipal bonds for tax-free income and preservation of capital, and a default rate of less than 1 percent.

Some of them have even managed to differentiate between the varieties of municipal bonds that are sold, and only buy general obligations -- those that are backed by a municipality's full faith and credit. In theory, municipalities promise to increase taxes to whatever level is needed to repay debt.

snip>

Of the 130.6 million income tax returns filed by individuals in 2003, the latest year for which data is available, 4.53 million reported receiving tax-exempt interest of $52 billion. Those at the very top of the food chain, the 756,164 households that claimed adjusted gross income of $200,000 or more, received almost half of the total. These weren't the people taking refuge at the Superdome or the Convention Center in New Orleans.

more...

[UpInArms]

35. Taxpayer bailout for Iraq-mire but not for Louisiana?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/11/AR2005101101577.html?sub=AR

excerpt:

The fidgeting clearly corresponded to the questioning. When Lauer asked if Bush, after a slow response to Katrina, was "trying to get a second chance to make a good first impression," Bush blinked 24 times in his answer. When asked why Gulf Coast residents would have to pay back funds but Iraqis would not, Bush blinked 23 times and hitched his trousers up by the belt.

[54anickel]

40. Ah but that money goes to the corporatists and the military-industrial

complex types. Half the money from Gulf area bonds goes to pension and mutual funds - the "little people's" money.

Gotta get yer priorities straightened out - back to re-edumacation camp witcha!!! Now, repeat after me - "What's good for the corporation is good for me."

[ozymandius]

46. If only Al-Qaeda would relocate to Louisiana.

Folks along the gulf coast would have all the free money they'd need.


EDIT:
:sarcasm: of course

[AnneD]

101. Well.....

this is one taxpayer that would rather see New Orleans rebuilt than put 12 permanent bases in Iraq. What do we pay our damn taxes for, if not to help promote the common defense and general welfare of these United States. What a diaperload (which is why he hitched his trousers up by the belt). Let's fire him, take that salary and apply it to rebuilding. Or better yet, fire the entire executive branch, outsource it to India, take the savings and pay off the deficit. We would be out of debt in 2 yrs.

[54anickel]

36. Transition Curse (Roach)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20051007-fri.html#anchor0

The end of an era is nearly at hand. After nearly 18 1/2 years on the job, Alan Greenspan is required under law to step down at the end of his full term as Fed governor on January 31, 2006. Akin to the election of a new pope, the changing of the guard at the Fed is a rare and important event for the US and world financial system. In the past 27 years, it has happened only three times. In each of those instances, the transition did not go well -- financial markets quickly seized up, eager to test the mettle of the new central banker. My suspicion is that the curse of the Fed transition is likely to be in play again -- with potentially profound implications for increasingly vulnerable financial markets.

snip>

The history of recent Fed leadership transitions does not read well in the financial markets. The last one occurred in August 1987, when Alan Greenspan assumed the reins of power. A little more than two months later, the US stock market crashed. Paul Volcker became Chairman in August 1979 -- a transition that that was quickly followed by a wrenching sell-off in the bond market. And the US dollar was in serious trouble from the very start of G. William Miller’s brief term as Fed chairman, which commenced in March 1978.

It’s not that new Fed chairman typically fail to meet the immediate test of financial markets. In each of these instances, the incoming central banker inherited very tough macro conditions. The Greenspan transition occurred when the US stock market was already sharply overvalued. At the same time, the US and Germany were at odds on the interest rate coordination needed to stabilize a then very weak dollar. The crack in the US stock market was very much an outgrowth of the long simmering interplay between the dollar, interest rates, and unstable conditions in equity markets. Similarly, Paul Volcker came to power in an era of raging double-digit inflation -- 13% annualized increases in consumer prices. At the time, there was no political will to turn the monetary screws tight enough to tame inflation. Volcker was quick to challenge that perception, and the bond market caught on quickly to the wrenching monetary tightening that was about to unfold. For G. William Miller, it was indoctrination under fire. As the US trade balance deteriorated, inflation went from bad to worse, and the US currency reeled in response -- ultimately forcing the Carter Administration to announce a formal dollar support program in late 1978.

snip>

Alas, that is very much the case today. Saddled with a record current account deficit, the US is more dependent than ever on the confidence of foreign investors to fund ongoing economic growth. When Greenspan hands over the reins to his successor in early 2006, the current account deficit will be at least 6.5% of GDP. That’s more than four times the average external shortfall of 1.5% that prevailed during the three most recent transition points -- 1978, 1979, and 1987. Moreover, in a post-Katrina, energy-shocked climate, there is good reason to expect additional reductions in personal and government saving in the months ahead -- actually, deeper dis-saving (deficits) on both counts. As a result, already-depressed national saving should move even lower, prompting further deterioration in America’s already massive current account deficit. In other words, America’s dependence on the “kindness of strangers” is likely to increase significantly at precisely the point of an historically-delicate transition to a new a new Fed chairman.

And that, I’m afraid, brings me to the most controversial point of all -- the selection process, itself....

more...

[UpInArms]

37. IT spending to decline as percent of revenue

9:03am 10/12/05 GARTNER SAYS IT SPENDING AS PERCENT OF REV. MAY DECLINE

9:04am 10/12/05 GARTNER SAYS IT INDUSTRY JOB MARKET TO REMAIN CHALLENGING

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38637.3860171065-845609387&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- March research firm Gartner Inc. said it expects U.S. spending on information technology to rise 5.5% in 2006, but spending as a percent of revenue is expected to decline at some organizations as revenue growth outpaces budget increases. The estimate is based on preliminary results of a survey of more than 1,500 IT managers from June through August. The IT industry job market is expected to remain challenging as some organizations plan to reduce budgets for IT contractors. "Despite the spending increase, the message to IT managers is clear: you must continue to improve the efficiency of established IT investment areas if you want to fund substantial growth in IT or add IT professionals to the workforce," said Gartner research vice president Barbara Gomolski. Spending on mobile devices will be a major priority, while spending on security will stabilize.

[UpInArms]

38. Treasury declines continue

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B0EED3CB7%2DA220%2D4F5C%2DBFD6%2D9134AF57A573%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - Treasury prices fell Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan repeated his view that U.S. economic resiliency has helped it handle the shock of high energy prices.

His remarks offered little to contradict the prevailing view in the bond market - U.S. interest rates are headed higher.

The benchmark 10-year note was down 5/32 at 98 22/32, shedding a little more than $1.25 per each $1,000 in securities.

Price declines left its yield ($TNX: news, chart, profile) at 4.41% compared to 4.39% at Tuesday's close.

The yield, a reference for mortgage and corporate borrowing rates, did touch 4.4% on Oct. 7, which was its highest since April.

Greenspan's speech to the National Italian American Foundation was almost identical to one he gave on Sept. 27. See full story.

While staying clear of a direct reference to the economy post-Katrina, Greenspan did say flexibility has allowed the economy, so far, "to weather reasonably well the steep rise in spot and futures prices for oil and natural gas that we have experienced over the past two years."

...more...

[UpInArms]

42. Check-Kiting: Fed adds reserves to system through overnight RPs

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-12T133901Z_01_N12346270_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 12 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday it was adding temporary reserves to the U.S. banking system through overnight system repurchase agreements.

The benchmark federal funds rate last traded at 3.750 percent, the Fed's target for the overnight lending rate.

Further details of the operations are available at: http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

See for recent Fed open market operations.

[UpInArms]

51. US Treasuries lower after Greenspan speech

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-12T135942Z_01_N12346508_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 12 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices were lower on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan reaffirmed his view that the flexibility of the U.S. economy helped it weather shocks more smoothly.

Price action was muted, with traders saying underlying softness in the market, brought on by clear Fed signals that interest rates were heading higher, was carrying the day.

"I suppose we got some kind of relief uptick here, but the bottom line is that the market is still going down," said one Wall Street bond trader with a primary Treasuries dealer.

Greenspan's comments, which included fresh warnings about the perils of protectionism in a globalized economy, came on a day without major economic data.

In the absence of market-moving data, traders were turning their attention to other factors, including three speeches from other Fed officials later in the day.

Traders were also coming to grips with the risk of rising yields causing holders of mortgage-backed securities to adjust their portfolios.

...more...

[54anickel]

52. Treasuries, buck and gold all down together? Hmmm, where's the

money going to today? Certainly not stocks? :evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

62. Fed's Bies: Fed eyeing risky mortgage products

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38637.4584152199-845622459&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Concerned by so-called "affordability" mortgage products, Federal Reserve Gov. Susan Bies said the central bank may issue guidelines about them in the near future. "We hope to find out whether financial institutions are fully assessing and managing the new risks posed by affordability products," Bies said in a prepared speech to the National Bankers Association. Affordability products include interest-only loans. She added regulators have ongoing concerns about commercial real estate lending and said Fed staff is mulling guidance for banks about those loans.

[UpInArms]

112. Treasurys close with benchmark yield at six-month high

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38637.6407050694-845657238&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Inflation concerns, fueled by recent Federal Reserve speeches, pushed benchmark 10-year Treasury yields to their highest close in six months on Wednesday. Yield and price move inversely. The note, which is consulted in setting mortgage and other borrowing rates, fell 13/32 to 98 14/32, losing $3.75 in value for each $1,000 of securities. The yield ($TNX) stood at 4.45% compared to 4.39% Monday. It was last higher when it closed at 4.5% on April 8, according to Fed data.

[UpInArms]

39. pre-opening blather

9:03AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -3.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.5. Futures trade continues to point towards a lower open today. The latest Fed-speak perhaps contributes to the tone; although the text has been released and mirrors his Sept. 27th speech, Fed Chairman Greenspan is slated to begin speaking about economic flexibility shortly. Last night, Fed Govenor Kohn commented on globalization; Fed Govenor Bies will speak on regulatory banking issues at 11:00 ET; Dallas Fed President Fisher will give opening remarks at a local meeting today; Govenor Olsen will speak late (3:45 ET) in Vancouver on the economy & policy.

8:34AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -3.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.5. Equities remain poised for a lower open. Despite the stream of upside earnings reports hitting the early wires, which includes those delivered by HDI, AIT, FAST, HMT, MEG, MTG, and MON, traders remained focused upon Apple's disappointment and crude's uptick (+$0.36 $63.90/bbl) after a bullish 2006 demand outlook from the International Energy Agency yesterday. Also weighing upon sentiment may be Prudential's target-cut and downgrade of INTC, to Underweight from Neutral Weight, alongside its semiconductor ratings cut (to Unfavorable from Neutral).

8:33AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -3.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.5. Equities remain poised for a lower open. Despite the stream of upside earnings reports hitting the early wires, which includes those delivered by HDI, AIT, FAST, HMT, MEG, MTG, and MON, traders remained focused upon Apple's disappointment and crude's uptick (+$0.36 $63.90/bbl) after a bullish 2006 demand outlook from the International Energy Agency yesterday. Also weighing upon sentiment may be Prudential's target-cut and downgrade of Intel (INTC), to Underweight from Neutral Weight, alongside its semiconductor ratings cut (to Unfavorable from Neutral).

8:03AM : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.5. The cash market is set to open lower today, as a disappointing fiscal Q4 earnings report from Apple Computer (AAPL) and oil's extended moment gives traders reason to continue selling action. APPL shares have plunged over 8% during early trading after the tech giant reported less-than expected revenues ($3.68 bln vs. the $3.74 consensus) and fewer-than-expected iPod shipments (6.45 mln vs. the 7.45 mln consensus). The company did, however, beat EPS expectations by a penny, delivering $0.38 per share, and issued upside fiscal Q1 EPS and revenue guidance. Separately, crude is up 0.5% to $63.83/bbl today.

[UpInArms]

41. 9:42 giving the bidness to the world

Dow 10,274.14 +20.97 (+0.20%)
Nasdaq 2,056.72 -4.37 (-0.21%)
S&P 500 1,185.22 +0.35 (+0.03%)
10-Yr Bond 4.408 +0.24 (+0.55%)

NYSE Volume 117,732,000
Nasdaq Volume 124,318,000

[ozymandius]

44. Look like "they" plan to make their pennies early in the day.

9:48
Dow 10,303.91 +50.74 (+0.49%)
Nasdaq 2,064.22 +3.13 (+0.15%)
S&P 500 1,187.74 +2.87 (+0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 44.08 +0.24 (+0.55%)
NYSE Volume 165,374,000
Nasdaq Volume 171,967,000

[UpInArms]

48. blather

9:45AM: Although futures trade suggested a lower open for the stock market, the indices began the session in mixed fashion. The Dow and S&P are currently trending positive, but the Nasdaq extends the decline that pushed it to a three-month low yesterday. With recent market action leaving buyers cautious, and as Apple's (AAPL 48.64 -2.95) disappointing earnings report and rising energy prices weigh upon traders' sentiment today, the market is close to assuming the worst in terms of inflation, the economy, and earnings. However, investors may find reason to take advantage of what are perhaps oversold conditions as earnings season picks up. This morning, positive reports from Advanced Micro Devices, Harley-Davidson, MGIC Investment, and M&T Bank were delivered; next week, the reports come in heavy, and are expected to reflect 15% growth across the S&P 500.

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.5.

[UpInArms]

45. SEC, NYSE may discipline A.G. Edwards

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B106942E1%2DD44C%2D41E4%2DB081%2D9DBC33A01A39%7D&siteid=mktw

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- A.G. Edwards Inc. may face disciplinary action from the Securities and Exchange Commission and the New York Stock Exchange, the company said in a regulatory filing.

The staff of the SEC has informed A.G. Edwards (AGE: news, chart, profile) that it intends to recommend civil injunctive action be brought against the St. Louis-based brokerage firm over alleged market timing involving mutual funds, the company said.

Although market timing isn't in itself illegal, in the mutual-fund scandals many firms were accused of allowing favored clients such as hedge funds to rapidly trade mutual funds while prohibiting such activity in the prospectus because it increases costs for long-term shareholders.

A.G. Edwards said it has been offered the chance to make a Wells notice submission to the SEC spelling out why action should not be brought, according to the Tuesday filing.

...more...

[UpInArms]

88. Ex-BofA broker Sihpol settles with SEC ($200K fine and 5yr ban)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-12T155518Z_01_N12720410_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-BANKOFAMERICA-SIHPOL-UPDATE-3.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 12 (Reuters) - A former Bank of America Corp. (BAC.N: Quote, Profile, Research) broker accused of helping a hedge fund trade mutual funds illegally is expected to have his criminal case dismissed later Wednesday, after settling related charges with securities regulators, a person close to the matter said.

The broker, Theodore Sihpol, 38, agreed to a $200,000 fine and five-year ban from the securities industry to resolve fraud charges brought by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the agency said on Wednesday. Sihpol, who neither admitted nor denied the SEC's allegations, still faces civil lawsuits.

In the criminal case, New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer had accused Sihpol of helping the Canary Capital Partners LLC hedge fund trade mutual funds illegally.

A Manhattan jury in June acquitted Sihpol on 29 counts, including grand larceny and fraud. New York State Supreme Court Justice James Yates declared a mistrial on four counts on which the jury deadlocked. The verdict was a defeat for Spitzer, a 2006 Democratic gubernatorial candidate in New York.

"It's a way of saving face," said Ernest Badway, a partner at Saiber Schlesinger Satz & Goldstein LLC in Newark, New Jersey. "Spitzer could trumpet the suspension and civil penalty and not go through the rigmarole of a new trial, where it's quite possible he would have had a complete loss."

...more...

[UpInArms]

54. 10:10 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,280.22 +27.05 (+0.26%)
Nasdaq 2,055.05 -6.04 (-0.29%)
S&P 500 1,186.40 +1.53 (+0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.406 +0.22 (+0.50%)

NYSE Volume 321,326,000
Nasdaq Volume 303,046,000

10:00AM: The market's major averages are all in positive territory now. The Healthcare sector provides early leadership and extends a 0.9% gain for which Pfizer (PFE 25.06 +0.76) is largely responsible. This morning, the drug company announced that the United Kingdom's High Court of Justice has ruled in its favor in a case regarding generic Lipitor competition, upholding the exclusivity of the main patent covering Lipitor's active ingredient until Nov. 2011. The case was closely watched, as it is seen as a prelude to a more important U.S. patent battle over the cholesterol drug, which, with projected global annual sales of more than $12 billion, is the top-selling medicine in the world. Each of the other nine economic sectors have joined Healthcare in posting a gain to this point.NYSE Adv/Dec 1181/1398, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 990/1393

[54anickel]

55. US silver nonprofit opposes new silver-backed ETF

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticleSearch.aspx?storyID=153082+12-Oct-2005+RTRS&srch=gold

NEW YORK, Oct 12 (Reuters) - A U.S. silver industry nonprofit group opposes the creation of an exchange-traded fund backed by the precious metal amid concerns such an investment product could make silver too expensive or illiquid in the world market.

The Silver Users Association is especially concerned that a new ETF might threaten jobs in the silver industry, as it would require large amounts of metal to be held in vaults and out of reach of the marketplace, a spokesman said on Wednesday.

Commodity ETFs are designed to track the price of a specific product or basket of goods, and in the case of silver, one likely would be backed by physically stored metal.

"The concern we have is about jobs," Paul Miller of the SUA told Reuters. "That concerns our members greatly."

The SUA sees the removal of large quantities of physical silver having a negative impact on industry-specific employment as well as the overall economy, both through job losses and inflation, it said.

more...

[54anickel]

57. This avian flu thing is just what the doctor ordered (Mogambo)

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Daughty/oct122005.html

- The Fed settled down last week, but the Treasury admitted that the national debt zoomed to a new record which is, as of today, $7.994 trillion, which is why I am hiding in the closet under the stairs. What makes this interesting is that, at our average rate of acquiring new debt, we will hit the new Congressionally-mandated debt ceiling ($8,314 billion) in the next couple of months. And what will our Congresspersons do then? Hahaha! You guessed it! They'll raise the limit again! Par-tay down, dudes!

snip>

Growth? If Mogambo Manufacturing sold one widget last year for ten bucks, and this year we sold one widget for eleven bucks, my earnings went up. But did I grow? I still only made one lousy widget! Hahaha! Growing? Growing more cold-hearted and cruel perhaps, especially as concerns my looting the pension fund of the idiot employees and selling their ugly children to gypsies at the company picnic. But growth as a healthier, bigger company? Ha! Don't make me laugh!

But you can hear the American economists, the dumbest guys on earth, all saying "But Mogambo, you big fat idiot, GDP went up by 10%!" And then everyone agrees that GDP went up by 10% and that The Mogambo is a big fat idiot, and then people call my wife up, and laugh at her, and say hurtful things like "Haha! Your husband is a big fat idiot!" and she says "I know, mom! I know!"

But then the retailer guy who bought that widget for $11 says "But inflation was 10%!" So, net net net, the economy did NOT grow at all! And don't get complacent on me, because we are not done yet! No, sir! I'm just getting STARTED getting angry! Not only that, but the price of widgets to the final consumer, meaning you and me, went up not by 10%, but by 11% or 12%, as all those middlmen try to protect their profit margins!

more...

[UpInArms]

58. U.S. executive pay needs curbing UK-style -F&C

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-12T141559Z_01_L12613243_RTRIDST_0_CORPFIN-SUMMIT-EUROPE-EXECPAY.XML

LONDON, Oct 12 (Reuters) - Stratospheric levels of U.S. executive pay should be curbed, a leading investor said on Wednesday, amid rising concern among shareholders over awards unrelated to levels of performance.

Spiralling levels of U.S. executive pay, often in excess of 500 times the average salary, erode confidence in the board's ability to return value to shareholders, said Karina Litvack, head of governance at F&C Management, a London-based firm with $189 billion under management.

"Where people are pulling in tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars, we have some concerns," Litvack told the Reuters Corporate Finance Summit in London. "Especially where the level of disclaimer regarding targets is astoundingly poor."

There are similar issues in Britain, where top salaries commonly run at 200 times the average, but the problem there is not so severe, Litvack said.

<snip>

The top 10 most highly paid chief executives in the U.S. in 2004 were paid a minimum of $46 million and a maximum of $109 million, according to the AFL-CIO union. The average CEO of a major company received $9.84 million.

...more...

[ozymandius]

61. update from kos: More Economists Predict Slowdown Or Recession

http://dailykos.com/storyonly/2005/10/12/924/91141

Over the last few weeks, several economic commentators have written about an upcoming recession - its causes and its overall effect. These writers highlight the systemic problems of the US economy, namely, that we are not creating anything. Instead, the US economy is based on asset prices that will eventually come down in price, causing a drop in consumer confidence leading to a recession.

Marshall Loeb at CBS.Marketmatch writes from the perspective of 2007, analyzing what happens in 2006:

The prime cause of the recession that began in 2006 was that, as often happens, the President tried to do too much at once.
Historians know that, for example, Lyndon Johnson brought the economy to perdition in the 1960s and 1970s by not leveling with the American people about the true total cost of the Vietnam war (about $121 billion). Reason: LBJ wanted to pursue both his war and his costly Great Society domestic programs at the same time.

So, too, George Bush tried to pursue his war in Iraq (total cost: more than $200 billion by the end of 2005) and simultaneously to spend $150 billion or more to rebuild the Gulf Coast after the catastrophes of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

The consequence was that the federal debt surged from $7.3 trillion in fiscal 2004 to $8.2 trillion in 2006. You don't have to be a card-carrying economist to know that such excessive demand strained the supply of goods and services. That strain, combined with increases in the price of energy, inevitably lifted prices throughout the economy. Inflation reared its ugly head.

ames Cramer of theStreet.com has a slightly different take:

It's dawning on wall street that George W. Bush may be the first president since Lyndon B. Johnson who believes that we can have a guns-and-butter federal spending policy without creating a serious inflation spiral, if not outright government bankruptcy. At least LBJ, to his credit, believed that there were limits to profligacy and that taxes had to be raised. Not President Bush. He's making Johnson look like a fiscal conservative, what with his insistence on waging a war in Iraq that's costing $177 million a day and rebuilding New Orleans by taking on a monstrous load of federal debt.

For the longest time, because Bush is a Republican, we on Wall Street simply didn't believe that he could be a reckless spender. We knew only two paradigms: You either spent less and cut taxes or you spent more and raised taxes. Both courses at least presumed some sacrifice at some time. Not Bush's plan. He's gone on both the biggest spending binge and the lowest taxation course in U.S. history, which, alas, will produce gigantic liabilities down the road. Of course, he'll be back on the ranch by the time his successor will have to deal with his inflation and currency debasement. Our only hope that financial disaster won't strike sooner lies with the Chinese, who actually fund our deficit by buying our Treasuries--$242 billion worth, or 12 percent of all foreign holdings. If the Chinese decide to be good communists and stop buying our bonds, the Feds will have to raise rates to attract new investors and the reaper will be at our doorstep with interest rates more akin to those of South than North America. Right now, it's not a problem. But in a year or two or maybe less, I perceive that the government will throw a bond auction and nobody will show, including the Chinese, until rates shoot up dramatically.

Central to Loeb's and Cramer's theory is some event (here excessive demand from a massive increase in federal spending) causing the Federal Reserve to boost interest rates. Both note the size of combined spending associated with Iraq and Katrina rebuilding as cause. Loeb's theory states the Massive increase in government spending simply increases macro-level demand to the point where it pulls prices up - the classic example of demand pull inflation. Cramer ties the US' complete dependence on foreign capital, arguing Bush's profligate spending finally causes creditors to demand increased compensation for their purchases of US debt. Either way, interest rate levels reached a tipping point where they negatively affected the housing market. This will eventually hurt the US consumer, who has financed the latest economic expansion by taking on record levels of consumer debt.

more...

[UpInArms]

63. 11:10 EST doing the fish flop

Dow 10,259.33 +6.16 (+0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,045.70 -15.39 (-0.75%)
S&P 500 1,182.56 -2.31 (-0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 4.415 +0.31 (+0.71%)

NYSE Volume 722,497,000
Nasdaq Volume 663,808,000

11:05AM: The major indices have slipped into negative territory as crude futures have hit their best levels of the day ($64.20./bbl) in the past half hour. Gasoline and natural gas are also moving north and are weighing on sentiment. The Consumer Discretionary sector currently fares worst of the ten economic sectors, off 0.7% on account of wide-spread selling that has pushed apparel retailers down 2.5%, department stores down 2.1%, homebuilders down 1.7%, and computers and electronics retailers 3.0% lower. In terms of individual issues, HD, EBAY, CCL, BBY, FD, SHLD, COH, and TJX are among the notable laggards. Relative strength in motorcycles (+2.0%) and auto parts (+2.8%), however, has helped limit the sector's slide.NYSE Adv/Dec 956/1965, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 777/1906

10:30AM: Consistent with its recent difficulty in sustaining gains, the market has faded over the past half hour. The Tech sector (-0.3%) has paced the retreat. Semiconductors are a notable area of weakness, languishing after Prudential cut the group's rating to Unfavorable from Neutral and downgraded Intel (INTC) to Underweight from Neutral Weight. An example of the market's inability to hold more meaningful gains can be seen with Harley Davidson (HDI). After delivering Q3 earnings ($0.96/share) that exceeded expectations by $0.06, shares rose close to 6% in early trading, but are now up just 0.6%.NYSE Adv/Dec 1140/1675, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 861/1706

Where is the Petroleum Inventories Report???

[JNelson6563]

64. Today's word: Volatile

Mighty wobbly. 11:12 snapshot:


Dow 10,256.93 +3.76 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq 2,046.07 -15.02 (-0.73%)
S&P 500 1,183.10 -1.77 (-0.15%)
10-Yr Bond 4.415% +0.03

Money leaving Treasuries too it looks like. Hmmm.

Julie

[ozymandius]

67. Is it just me or do the markets seem to be going nowhere good?

11:23
Dow 10,259.89 +6.72 (+0.07%)
Nasdaq 2,046.14 -14.95 (-0.73%)
S&P 500 1,183.30 -1.57 (-0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 44.17 +0.33 (+0.75%)
NYSE Volume 800,217,000
Nasdaq Volume 727,627,000

Five steps forward, seven steps back are the habit of late.

[54anickel]

68. Look at those Adv/Dec figures again today - more telling than the

actual numbers again. Nowhere good indeed.


Advances 944 (29%) 817 (27%)
Declines 2078 (65%) 1954 (66%)
Unchanged 157 (4%) 170 (5%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 259 (34%) 168 (23%)
Down Vol* 475 (62%) 520 (72%)
Unch. Vol* 22 (2%) 28 (3%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 15 21
New Lo's 208 152

[UpInArms]

72. 11:53 EST hit a pothole

Dow 10,229.87 -23.30 (-0.23%)
Nasdaq 2,040.01 -21.08 (-1.02%)
S&P 500 1,179.30 -5.57 (-0.47%)
10-Yr Bond 4.421 +0.37 (+0.84%)

NYSE Volume 955,465,000
Nasdaq Volume 867,215,000

11:30AM: Vacillating around the flat line, the blue chip average leaves its couterparts in the red. Pfizer (PFE 24.90 +0.60) supports the Dow, but aside from its 2.5% gain, the Dow has virtually no leadership and is challenged by declines in half of its 30 components. Intel's (INTC 23.00 -0.42) 1.9% slide leads the laggards and has also contributed to the Nasdaq's inability to gain traction. Home Depot (HD 37.86 -0.37) is off 1.0% and is another notable weight on the broader market.NYSE Adv/Dec 902/2110, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 801/1967

[ozymandius]

74. That sucker's deep.

11:58
Dow 10,213.62 -39.55 (-0.39%)
Nasdaq 2,036.76 -24.33 (-1.18%)
S&P 500 1,177.89 -6.98 (-0.59%)
10-Yr Bond 44.23 +0.39 (+0.89%)
NYSE Volume 986,443,000
Nasdaq Volume 896,284,000

[UpInArms]

77. and wide

12:01

Dow 10,199.38 -53.79 (-0.52%)
Nasdaq 2,035.08 -26.01 (-1.26%)
S&P 500 1,176.93 -7.94 (-0.67%)
10-Yr Bond 4.423 +0.39 (+0.89%)

NYSE Volume 998,806,000
Nasdaq Volume 906,046,000

[54anickel]

80. Will they be able to defend 10,200?...n/t

[UpInArms]

82. 12:06 calvary appearance

finding the upside of the pothole

Dow 10,218.27 -34.90 (-0.34%)
Nasdaq 2,038.41 -22.68 (-1.10%)
S&P 500 1,178.09 -6.78 (-0.57%)
10-Yr Bond 4.423 +0.39 (+0.89%)

NYSE Volume 1,043,503,000
Nasdaq Volume 943,441,000

[54anickel]

83. Hope they save enough ammo for the 2:00 raid...Gotta run for the day n/t

[ozymandius]

85. Bye 54anickel.

Have a great afternoon!

Ozy :hi:

[UpInArms]

86. some blather to see you off?

12:00PM: The market's major averages got off to a positive start, but now rest comfortably in negative territory and are at their lows of the session with selling activity picking up in the past half hour. Once again, a lack of concerted leadership and an uptick in oil prices have acted as buying deterrents. Additionally, though, a relatively disappointing fiscal Q4 earnings report from Apple (AAPL 49.51 -2.08) and a Prudential downgrade of the semiconductor sector to Unfavorable from Neutral have also weighed on sentiment. A few of the lone bright spots in today's trading include Dow component Pfizer (PFE 24.81 +0.51), which is up following a favorable court ruling in the UK regarding patent protection of its blockbuster drug, Lipitor, and motorcycle manufacturer Harley-Davidson (HDI 46.18 +0.58), which zoomed in this morning with better than expected Q3 earnings results. From a sector standpoint, Energy Services (-1.20%) and Consumer Discretionary (-1.05%) top the list of laggards. The former continues to fall victim to profit taking, which speaks to the lack of leadership at the moment, while the latter sector continues to get undercut by concerns related to a slowdown in discretionary spending. The Utilities sector (-0.9%) is another pocket of weakness as the jump in market rates (10-yr now at 4.42%) is encouraging profit taking from one of the market's best-performing areas year-to-date. Health Care (+0.08%) is the only sector sporting a gain at the moment, as it rides the coattails of Pfizer's favorable court ruling and a Merrill Lynch upgrade of Schering-Plough (SGP 20.84 +1.00) to Buy from Neutral

Separately, Fed Chairman Greenspan spoke earlier this morning to the National Italian-American Foundation on the topic of economic flexibility. His comments were largely a repeat of a prior speech and haven't had any noteworthy impact on the market.DJTA -1.47, DJUA -1.57, DOT -0.86, Nasdaq 100 -0.90, Russell 2000 -1.26, SOX -1.03, S&P Midcap 400 -1.43, XOI -1.97, NYSE Adv/Dec 817/2260, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 688/2120

:hi:

[54anickel]

78. Quickly widening into a cavern at 12:00

Dow 10,198.82 -54.35 (-0.53%)
Nasdaq 2,035.08 -26.01 (-1.26%)
S&P 500 1,176.93 -7.94 (-0.67%)
10-yr Bond 4.423% +0.04
30-yr Bond 4.63% +0.04
NYSE Volume 998,806,000
Nasdaq Volume 906,046,000

[UpInArms]

84. maybe it was just a donut hole?

Krispy Kreme Doughnuts stock plunges; no news out

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38637.5045380208-845631047&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (KKD) were down 22% in midday trading Wednesday. At last check, the stock was down $1.28 at $4.32 on volume of 3.2 million shares, vs. the daily average of 924,000. Krispy Kreme hasn't made any announcements in recent days, and officials at the Winston-Salem, N.C.-based company weren't immediately available to comment.

[Ishoutandscream2]

90. Shit. How long before we're under 10,000?

[54anickel]

69. GM forging parts contingency plan in case UAW strikes

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BDA3DAAA9-280B-4926-9C57-C2E6CC9121FE%7D

DETROIT (MarketWatch) -- General Motors Corp. (GM) said Wednesday it is working on a contingency plan in regards to a potential strike by the United Auto Workers union against the automaker's top supplier, Delphi Corp. (DPH)

The Detroit Free Press reported Wednesday that the UAW has distributed a flier to workers at Delphi's Lockport, N.Y. plant advising them to prepare for a walkout. The flier tells the 4,700 workers at the plant that a strike could be authorized if a New York bankruptcy judge nullifies labor contracts.

A prolonged strike at the New York plant, one of Delphi's largest, would cripple operations at GM at a time when the automaker is looking to boost inventory, launch new products and keep key vehicles rolling off the assembly line.

"To the extent we can prepare for that (a strike), we are preparing a contingency plan," GM spokeswoman Toni Simonetti said in an interview following the report. She said even with a contingency plan, the automaker risks being hit with parts shortages that potentially suspend production of vehicles if Delphi workers walk off the job.

snip>

In his most recent statement, Gettlefinger did not indicate the UAW is considering a union-wide strike against Delphi, which has about 33,000 union workers in the U.S., 25,000 of which are represented by the UAW. Delphi and its top union have a contract slated to run through 2007.

more...

[54anickel]

73. Which side are you on?

http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=5014557

snip>

Delphi hopes that under court protection it will be able to re-engineer its business, ditching unproductive plants and people (in the United States but not, significantly, elsewhere) that a restrictive collective-bargaining agreement now protects. It wants GM to guarantee monthly purchases of parts worth at least $1 billion, and to persuade workers to accept $16-18 per hour in wages and benefits instead of the current $65. One goal is to emerge with a smaller but still vital business. Another is to avoid throwing up to $5 billion-worth of unfunded pension liabilities into the lap of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC), says Steve Miller, Delphi's chief executive, who landed the PBGC with $3.6 billion-worth in 2002 when he was head of Bethlehem Steel.

At the end of the day, Delphi’s move into Chapter 11 seems to have less to do with its imminent demise otherwise than it does with forcing the hand of the United Auto Workers and GM. And here the stakes get bigger, for GM itself is in dangerous territory. In the first half of this year, the carmaker lost $2.5 billion in North America, where its market share is fast vanishing. It wants to cut 25,000 workers and hack back health-care costs from an estimated $6 billion this year, and is getting nowhere with its unions. It hoped it had got rid of a large chunk of problems when it spun off Delphi in 1999 and was less responsive to its main supplier’s pleas for help than was Ford (which agreed to take over some less attractive plants from Visteon). Those problems have come right back.

snip>

Delphi’s Mr Miller would have us focus on one: the clash between the interests of young workers and those of their predecessors. As he put it stirringly in an interview with the Financial Times, inter-generational warfare looms “as young people increasingly resent having their wages reduced and taxed away to support social programmes for their grandparents’ income and health-care concerns”. Short of flinging the oldsters to the sharks, there is no escaping the demographic trend that has fewer workers supporting more baby-boom retirees in most of the developed world (and part of the developing world). The question is whether the burden should fall on workers in specific firms, on all workers, or on taxpayers in general.

snip>

But GM was making good money in the 1990s. Like many companies, it stopped contributing to its pension scheme for a while when the stockmarket boom was producing what was reckoned to be sustainable pension surpluses. And at a time when many big corporations were rewarding shareholders (and, no doubt, executives with stock options) by buying back company shares, GM was particularly famous for it. If that money had been put instead into pensions—and indeed into funding health-care obligations—the problem would be less acute now.

But it is acute, and no amount of finger-pointing will change the equally unappealing options. A debt’s a debt, but a dead company cannot pay it. Delphi must cut and run, or go under—unless the United Auto Workers will do a huge deal, losing face but saving jobs. Which side are you on, brother?

more...

[54anickel]

75. COMEX gold knocked from 18-yr high on fund selling

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticleSearch.aspx?storyID=172622+12-Oct-2005+RTRS&srch=gold

NEW YORK, Oct 12 (Reuters) - U.S. gold futures retreated on fund selling Wednesday, after spiking to a new 18-year peak, as the market became roiled by profit taking on the one hand and continued speculative interest on the other, traders and analysts said.

snip>

Profit taking slammed prices at midmorning, after four straight days of gains earlier pushed gold higher, and one COMEX trader said it looked like one large fund was either liquidating long positions or conducting fresh short selling.

"If that's the case, it's the first new short I've heard about in a long time," the trader said.

snip>

"There is a higher level of economic uncertainty out there superimposed on some traditional seasonal strength at this time of the year, so I'm not altogether surprised by the current activity," said Geoff Stanley, precious metals and minerals analyst at BMO Nesbitt Burns in New York.

But he cautioned that the increased speculative net long position on COMEX, which has hit a record high for fund holdings, could set the market up for a long liquidation sell-off, if there was disappointing news on gold, or a shift in concerns about oil, currencies or the economy.

more...

[UpInArms]

107. Gold futures top $482, then end lower

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BE301530A%2D5C05%2D47A4%2DB460%2DB5520AAD9613%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures prices closed with an over $3 loss Wednesday, after a brief climb past a nearly 18-year high of $482 an ounce, as traders gauged inflation concerns.

"Gold continues to see bouts of profit-taking, which up until now are all absorbed and helping to correct an overbought condition," said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter.

All in all, "gold is still capable of springing higher, particularly with inflation concerns still high and with the scale of data set for release and Friday," said James Moore, analyst at TheBullionDesk.com.

But for now, "a period of consolidation may be seen with the metal trading between $470-$480," he said in a note to clients.

Gold for December delivery reached as high as $482.20 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest intraday futures price since January 1988. But the contract closed at $476.60 an ounce, down $3.20, or 0.7%.

Earlier, prices found support after Federal Reserve Governor Donald Kohn reignited concern about global inflation. Kohn said late Tuesday that the popular notion that globalization in the form of cheap imports from India and China have suppressed inflation for good is a fairy tale.

...more...

[TrogL]

76. *ahem* has something gone sour with the greenback?

I'm looking at the currency charts and it's taken a noisedive against all three. Just seems like too much of a coincidence. The CBC's back on the air (yay!!) and there's nothing particularly special going on with the Canadian economy.

[UpInArms]

87. can't find anything earth shaking

still holding above 89.50

Last trade 89.60 Change -0.37 (-0.41%)

Settle 89.97 Settle Time 23:36

Open 90.02 Previous Close 89.97

High 90.17 Low 89.52

Last tick: 2005-10-12 11:57:17 ET
30-min delayed quote.

Glad that CBC is back :hi:

[converted_democrat]

92. Breaking- Former Refco CEO indicted for securities fraud.....

Just announced on CNBC no link yet.

edit- for my awful grammar

[UpInArms]

94. thanks c_d!

this one should be as interesting as the Bayou Fund implosion.

[UpInArms]

96. more info:

Ex-Refco CEO Bennett charged with securities fraud

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38637.5341139236-845636407&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Phillip Bennett, the recently ousted chief executive of Refco Inc. (RFX) , has been charged with securities fraud, a spokeswoman at the U.S. attorney's office for the southern district of New York in Manhattan said Wednesday. Bennett was suspended by the futures broker earlier this week for allegedly using a hedge fund to disguise $430 million in debts to the company.

(I didn't think your grammar was aweful, she always spoke so highly of you :D )

[converted_democrat]

99. Thanks for finding the link for me.........

:pals: This whole situation looks as if it should be fun to watch!!!

[UpInArms]

105. more

2:11pm 10/12/05 U.S. ATTY GEN: DOLLAR AMOUNT IN CASE WAS AS HIGH AS $545M

2:07pm 10/12/05 U.S. ATTY GEN: EX-REFCO CEO BENNETT ARRESTED TUESDAY NIGHT

[JNelson6563]

93. Quick! Stick your finger in that hole!

Now just hold it there, don't pull it out, whatever you do.

12:45

Dow 10,232.03 -21.14 (-0.21%)
Nasdaq 2,039.97 -21.12 (-1.02%)
S&P 500 1,179.39 -5.48 (-0.46%)
10-Yr Bond 4.417% +0.03


Precipice anyone?

Julie

[UpInArms]

95. I think there are leaks around the finger

Dow 10,211.38 -41.79 (-0.41%)
Nasdaq 2,037.56 -23.53 (-1.14%)
S&P 500 1,177.45 -7.42 (-0.63%)
10-Yr Bond 4.417 +0.33 (+0.75%)

NYSE Volume 1,237,016,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,093,426,000

12:30PM: Having bounced off session lows, the indices all remain in negative territory. Leadership is still lacking as Health Care (+0.2%) is the only sector posting a gain. The Treasury market is also on the defensive, with the benchmark 10-year note off six ticks and its yield at 4.42%, as traders continue to be bothered by the specter of rising inflation and rising interest rates.NYSE Adv/Dec 693/2449, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 632/2221

[JNelson6563]

97. It's an evil leak, I have proof!

12:52 and note how much the S&P are off....

Dow 10,219.71 -33.46 (-0.33%)
Nasdaq 2,038.47 -22.62 (-1.10%)
S&P 500 1,178.21 -6.66 (-0.56%) :evilfrown:
10-Yr Bond 4.421% +0.04

Julie

[Roland99]

98. Great googly moogly!!

;)

[JNelson6563]

102. Where's the money going?

1:52 and everything's down including gold and Treasuries.

Dow 10,218.35 -34.82 (-0.34%)
Nasdaq 2,040.36 -20.73 (-1.01%)
S&P 500 1,177.45 -7.42 (-0.63%)
10-Yr Bond 4.421% +0.04

Will try to check back in before the party ends. Hope everyone's well positioned. ;-)

Julie

[ret5hd]

103. bullets and store-bought whiskey? (nt)

[loudsue]

106. Ooops. Another case of 401K slip-sliding away!

Looks like lots of folks are looking at a postponed retirement!

:yourock: Thanks, Marketeers!! You guys keep us up on all the important things going on!! :grouphug:

You da best!

:kick:

[UpInArms]

104. 2:15 EST plumbing the depth of another pothole

Dow 10,206.26 -46.91 (-0.46%)
Nasdaq 2,038.74 -22.35 (-1.08%)
S&P 500 1,176.04 -8.83 (-0.75%)
10-Yr Bond 4.435 +0.51 (+1.16%)

NYSE Volume 1,621,677,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,400,231,000

2:00PM: Lacking a fresh catalyst, buyers and sellers alike continue to stand relatively still, and, as such, market action remains stunted... The dollar has fallen for the first day in four against the yen and euro today, and remained lower after Fed Chairman Greenspan's prepared remarks and ahead of tomorrow's trade balance data. Economists forecast that the U.S. trade deficit widened to $59.5 bln, up from -$57.9 bln in July. That deficit would match June's as the second-widest ever, after February's record $60.4 billion...

Before its decline, though, the greenback hit a 17-month high versus the yen earlier today. NYSE Adv/Dec 724/2503, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 716/2214

1:30PM: Little has changed for equities, and range-bound trading below the flat line persists. Despite the fact that the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq have respectively lost 2.8%, 3.2%, and 4.5% during quarter four thus far, and while none of the sectors have managed to maintain gains, several of the market's subgroups have risen. Hypermarkets and supercenters (+3.0%) top the list, bolstered by Wal-Mart (WMT 44.82 -0.20) and Costco (COST 45.36 -0.16), while Sysco (SYY 31.83 +0.23) drives food distributors (+1.8%) to the quarter's second place slot. As for decliners, Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT 13.39 +0.53) has draggeed the S&P's tire and rubber group to a 13.0% last-place loss.NYSE Adv/Dec 744/2459, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 848/2094

[UpInArms]

108. 2:38 EST pothole deep and wide - DOW under 10,200

Dow 10,198.34 -54.83 (-0.53%)
Nasdaq 2,034.61 -26.48 (-1.28%)
S&P 500 1,175.22 -9.65 (-0.81%)
10-Yr Bond 4.449 +0.65 (+1.48%)

NYSE Volume 1,751,884,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,502,619,000

adding blather on edit:

2:30PM: Digging deeper, the indices hit new lows as traders eye the 4.45% yield on the benchmark 10-year note (-14/32)...

The economic sectors' similarly slide further, with four of ten now posting losses on the day that exceed 1.0%. The Utilites sector, down 1.8%, faces especial pressure from TXU Corp. (TXU 102.87 -5.39), which has plunged 5.0% today. This morning, Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of the utility issue with an In-line rating due to valuation concerns - despite the fact that the firm believes TXU is likely to rally in the near term. Despite crude's 1.1% gain today, the Energy sector stands second-to-last. Profit-taking in Valero (VLO 103.13 -4.47) and Sunoco (SUN 73.17 -2.77) represent particular areas of weakness, but selling action is broad-based and has shoved each of the sector's 29 constituents into the red.NYSE Adv/Dec 606/2662, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 676/2281

[UpInArms]

110. 3:23 EST late to the party, fairies attempt clean up

Dow 10,217.55 -35.62 (-0.35%)
Nasdaq 2,039.06 -22.03 (-1.07%)
S&P 500 1,177.04 -7.83 (-0.66%)
10-Yr Bond 4.441 +0.57 (+1.30%)

NYSE Volume 2,037,648,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,704,154,000

[UpInArms]

111. SEC Looking at Hedge Funds in Stock Placements (stock manipulation)

http://www.thestreet.com/_googlen/markets/matthewgoldstein/10245895.html

A long-running investigation into allegations of manipulative trading in the market for private stock placements by small companies is about to heat up.

The Securities and Exchange Commission is close to bringing enforcement actions against at least two hedge funds that have been active players in the $14 billion-a-year market for PIPEs, or private investments in public equity, people familiar with the inquiry say.

Within the past few months, the SEC formally notified one of the hedge funds that it is facing potential regulatory action by sending it a so-called Wells Notice. The other hedge fund has yet to receive a Wells Notice, but regulators are close to taking that next step, sources say.

The identities of the hedge funds could not be confirmed. But the looming regulatory actions would be the first taken by the SEC against any hedge fund in the nearly 2-year-old inquiry into PIPEs, financing transactions that are often used by cash-strapped companies.

The probe is focusing on allegations of stock manipulation by hedge funds, which tend to be the biggest investors in these shadowy stock sales, and allegations of wrongdoing by the Wall Street firms that round up buyers. PIPEs are popular with hedge funds because the buyers usually get to buy shares at a steep discount to the current market price.

...more...

[ozymandius]

113. closing numbers with blather

G'night all. See you in the A.M. Ozy :hi:

Dow 10,216.91 -36.26 (-0.35%)
Nasdaq 2,037.47 -23.62 (-1.15%)
S&P 500 1,177.68 -7.19 (-0.61%)
10-Yr Bond 44.41 +0.57 (+1.30%)
NYSE Volume 2,491,282,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,058,556,000

Close: Yet again, the market started the day on positive footing, only to quickly fade and position itself within a trading range well below the flat line. The fourth quarter has gotten off to the worst start in ten years, largely due to a lack of leadership that today's session continued. Crude's action further curbed enthusiasm, while a relatively disappointing fiscal Q4 earnings report from Apple (AAPL 49.21 -2.38) and a Prudential downgrade of the semiconductor sector further drove buyers to the market's margins. Despite the aforementioned uptick in oil, the Energy Services sector (-1.8%) fared worst today, especially refiners. The S&P's year-to-date top performer served as the weightiest drag, but selling was broad and left each of the sector's 29 issues in the red. Utilities' 1.6% decline placed next, as the second best-performing sector on a year-to-date basis similarly fell victim to traders' profit-locking attempts. Battered by consumer spending concerns, the Consumer Discretionary sector added 1.1% onto its 11.3% year-to-date decline, but at the same time, was home to one of the day's brightest spots. Ahead of the bell, motorcycle manufacturer Harley Davidson (HDI 46.90 +1.30) delivered Q3 earnings that surpassed analysts' expectations and sent the group to the top of the market. On account of continued weakness in banks, which hit a 52-week low yesterday, and traders' focus upon the flattening yield curve and the 10-year's 4.45% yield, Financials slid 0.5%. Matching that loss, the Technology sector also spent the day submerged - sunk particularly by Apple and semiconductors. Intel (INTC 23.22 -0.20) represented a pocket of weakness today, suffering a downgrade at Prudential to Underweight from Neutral Weight and helping drag the Nasdaq to a 4.9%...

[54anickel]

114. Oh my, back pedaling again. Is it just me or do those volume numbers

seem rather high?

edit to add: Sheesh, look at these Adv/Dec numbers and the down volume!

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 692 (20%) 739 (23%)
Declines 2635 (76%) 2307 (72%)
Unchanged 121 (3%) 135 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 577 (23%) 403 (19%)
Down Vol* 1865 (74%) 1635 (79%)
Unch. Vol* 45 (1%) 21 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 19 25
New Lo's 320 232

[ozymandius]

115. Now that Fall is here the big players are back in town.

But even before October - the volume numbers were jumping above the 2 billion mark. Question is: who is NOT putting the brakes on liquidating commodities assets?

Question #2: Where are the liquid assets going?

[54anickel]

116. That's a good question - where is the money going? The global

markets aren't fairing too well today either.

Ziplock baggies?



edit to add

http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/
Oct 12 6:30pm † Change %Change Level

FTSE 100 -38.50 -0.72% 5,342.20
XETRA-DAX -50.69 -1.01% 4,981.77
CAC 40 -34.63 -0.76% 4,515.05
HANG SENG -323.75 -2.17% 14,575.02
NIKKEI 225 -92.97 -0.69% 13,463.74

[loudsue]

117. Do you think this is going to be the "big one"????

We've all known it was coming sooner or later, and it looks like we've been on a definite downward trend for the past couple of weeks.

:shrug: Is this going to be it?? :cry:


:kick:

[54anickel]

118. Wish I knew. Seems to me that they are trying to let some of the air

out slowly, maybe as an attempt to avoid the "big one". Let it out a little at a time so that before year-end all those profit bloated corporate stocks will look like they're on sale. It's a dangerous game, and could easily slip into "the big one". But let's face it the Fed is pretty much outta options right now and the idiot son isn't helping matters with all the blank checks he's been issuing lately.

So the Fed will keep raising rates hoping to let some of the air out of the equity and real estate markets while at the same time trying to keep interest in buying our Treasuries. All this while talking up inflationary pressures and a strong, growing economy as their logic behind the rate increases.

They may or may not be able to pull it off for a while.

My bet on the "big one" would be the transition to a new Fed chairman next year. I've got a feeling that's why lil Idiot is taking so long in naming a replacement. He'll just keep floating names around for a while to get a "feel" for the market's reaction. IIRC they can actually keep Greenspin around for at least another 6 months, maybe longer. Hmmmm, any bets he'll still be hanging around through the '06 elections? :shrug: