STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 3 October

[ozymandius]

Monday October 3, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 110 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 287 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 351 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1408
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 30, 2005

Dow... 10,568.70 +15.92 (+0.15%)
Nasdaq... 2,151.69 +10.47 (+0.49%)
S&P 500... 1,228.81 +1.13 (+0.09%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.33% +0.04 (+0.91%)
Gold future... 472.30 -3.50 (-0.74%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [email protected]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

THE DOW REPORT
Signs of Tightening Consumers

The evidence of tightening consumers is beginning to show up in several indexes. But, is this just a temporary pause in the economy, or something more substantial?

The first index that I find to be key is the Retail Holders Index. A few weeks ago we looked at this index and it is now once again time for a review of this chart. The upper chart shown below is of the Industrials and the lower chart is the Retail Holders Index. The first thing I want to point out is the non-confirmations that have occurred at previous intermediate term market tops. The non-confirmations that have occurred at market tops are noted in blue, while the non-confirmations at market lows is noted in green. Notice that we saw a non-confirmation at the August high and that from that top the market has been soft. Also, since that non-confirmation the Retailers have broken down and more recently have violated their most recent short-term low. This break is noted in red. But, thus far the Industrials have held above their corresponding low. This now means that the market is perhaps at another important juncture. More on this later as it develops.



-cut-

These are but a few examples of a slowing economy. Between the natural force of the market, high energy costs and rising interest rates, just to name a few, we are beginning to see signs of a coming slow-down just as the Dow theory has been telling us all along.

more...

http://financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Oil Prices Gain Slightly

SINGAPORE - Oil prices gained slightly Monday on expectations of higher demand for heating oil as the Northern Hemisphere winter approaches, stretching supplies strained by the slow recovery of U.S. crude production following back-to-back hurricanes.

Mid-afternoon in Singapore, light, sweet crude for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 4cents to $66.28 a barrel in Asian electronic trading. The contract on Friday slipped 55 cents to settle at $66.24 a barrel.

-cut-

Concern is growing that damage caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita will hurt refineries' efforts to gear up for the winter, the peak season for production of distillate stocks — fuels that include heating oil, jet fuel, kerosene and diesel.

"The longer term outlook is bullish for prices going into the fourth quarter, with heating oil demand now being in focus," said Victor Shum, oil analyst at energy consultants Texas-headquartered Purvin & Gertz in Singapore.

more

[UpInArms]

28. Crude @ $66.30 bbl - NatGas @ $14.07 mln btus

0:02am 10/03/05 NOV CRUDE CLIMBS 6C TO $66.30/BRL IN EARLY NY TRADE

10:02am 10/03/05 NOV NATURAL GAS UP 14.9C, OR 1.1%, AT $14.07/MLN BTUS

[UpInArms]

38. Crude @ $65.65 bbl - NatGas @ $14.06 mln btus

12:37pm 10/03/05 NOV CRUDE FALLS 59C TO $65.65/BRL IN AFTERNOON TRADING

12:37pm 10/03/05 NOV UNLEADED GAS DOWN 2.18C, OR 1%, AT $2.075/GAL

12:37pm 10/03/05 NOV NATURAL GAS TRADES AT $14.06/MLN BTUS, UP 13.9C, OR 1%

12:37pm 10/03/05 NOV HEATING OIL FALLS 4.71C, OR 2.2%, TO $2.083/GAL

[UpInArms]

33. Oil Is Little Changed as Most U.S. Gulf Platforms Remain Closed

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000102&sid=aedBvchcvCy0&refer=uk

Oct. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil was little changed after rising 3.2 percent last week as almost all U.S. Gulf oil production closed by Hurricane Rita remained shut.

About 94 percent of the Gulf's oil production capacity is closed, the U.S. Minerals Management Service said in a report on Sept. 30, six days after Rita made landfall. At the same point after Katrina hit the Gulf coast on Aug. 29, more than 20 percent of platforms had restarted production. The region produces about 30 percent of U.S. crude oil output.

``Recovery of crude oil production is quite slow,'' said Tetsu Emori, commodities strategist at Mitsui Bussan Futures Ltd. in Tokyo. ``I don't think crude oil prices will fall.''

Crude oil for November delivery traded at $66.26, up 2 cents, at 10:05 a.m. in Singapore. Earlier the contract rose as much as 30 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $66.54 a barrel in after- hours trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures prices are 33 percent higher than a year ago.

The November contract rose $2.05 a barrel, or 3.2 percent, last week to reach $66.24, its biggest gain in seven weeks.

...more...

[UpInArms]

34. Energy Secretary Warns US May Face Supply Shortages -Report

http://www.thebusinessonline.com/DJStory.aspx?DJStoryID=20051003DN004356

NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- U.S. consumers face a difficult six months of spiking energy prices and possibly shortages as a result of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman warned in an interview published Monday by newspaper USA Today.

"We're going to go through a very challenging time the next six months," the energy secretary said, according to USA Today.

"Most of us have viewed energy availability as a kind of right of citizenship," he said, according to USA Today. "Both in terms of gasoline availability and (prices of) natural gas and heating oil, we're going to have some problems."

The comments show the depth of the Bush administration's concern about the back-to-back storms, which slammed the eastern and western ends of the U.S. Gulf Coast energy industry in the space of a month. More than a quarter of U.S. oil production, about 15% of its gas production and nearly a fifth of its refining capacity remains off line in the wake of the storms.

Americans have found ways to pay for soaring energy prices over the past two years, but haven't had to cope nationally with supply shortages since the 1970s.

...more...

[54anickel]

55. High Oil Prices Met With Anger Worldwide

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/02/AR2005100201315.html

Rising fuel prices are stoking popular anger around the world, throwing politicians on the defensive and forcing governments to resort to price freezes, tax cuts and other measures to soothe voter resentment.

The latest example came this weekend in Nigeria, where President Olusegun Obasanjo promised in a nationally televised Independence Day speech that the cost of gasoline would not increase further until the end of 2006, no matter what happened in global oil markets. He acted after furious demonstrations shut down whole sections of major cities around the country over the past several weeks.

Antagonism over the strains inflicted by escalating energy costs is a phenomenon that stretches from rich nations in Western Europe, where filling up a minivan costs upward of $100, to poor countries in Asia and Africa, where rising oil prices have driven up the cost of bus rides and kerosene used for cooking.

more...

[54anickel]

72. Anyone catch Willie Nelson's BioDiesel?

Was on TV the other night, caught a bit of it. The story was about some truckstop town - can't even remember the name or what show it was on.

http://www.wnbiodiesel.com/

On edit - it was Carl's Corner http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2005/10/02/sunday/main897583.shtml

[ozymandius]

3. High Oil Prices Prompt New Look at Shale

PARACHUTE, Colo. - The brush-covered landscape of buttes and desert just west of the Rockies, already dotted with oil and gas rigs, could be in store for another resource boom as the energy industry turns a fresh eye toward developing oil shale.

A reserve estimated at nearly 1 trillion barrels of oil buried deep in rock formations stretching from western Colorado into northeastern Utah and southwestern Wyoming may be a way to ease U.S. dependence on shrinking foreign oil supplies. The newly enacted energy bill was written to help open the way for research programs and commercial leasing of federal land containing oil shale.

Yet shale isn't a quick panacea to the nation's energy woes. This is oil that is locked up in rock, not deposits of liquid crude that are relatively easy to tap.

Companies have spent years researching how to melt oil out of rock, but it could be 2010 before any decide whether shale mining is commercially and environmentally feasible. It takes a large amount of water to recover the oil and the process can take months.

more

[AnneD]

18. OK...let's stripmine an even more fragile enviroment..

:donut: Morning Marketeers. I guess BushCo will not be happy until they suck up every bit of cash and resources from the public trust for their own personal gain (Condi with Cheveron, Cheney with Haliburton). What a legacy to leave behind. And what does it say about us for allowing it to happen. I have fought every reasonable way I know how (voting, campaigning, letterwritting, contacting my representitives). I am to the point of civil disobedience now (peace protests etc). I am even thinking of running for some small local office (I am thinking draft board). The last step will be to become an exile, and yes it is extreme, but hubby and I have thought long and hard about this. We know others thinking in these terms too. What a middle class brain drain this country will face. We are so use to getting the best and brightest, but those days may be over for the US. Well, some important stats will come out today...Happy Hunting, and watch out for the bears....

[ozymandius]

4. Economic Data Should Clarify Storm Matters

NEW YORK - Wall Street has been stewing in uncertainty over the economic impact of hurricanes Katrina and Rita, but a new batch of data due in the week ahead will help clarify the situation.

The market rallied last Thursday as investors felt stocks were oversold on concerns about the storm's aftermath; there was no real news to support the advance. Nobody really knows the effect the hurricanes will ultimately have on the nation's long-term economic prospects.

For the week ahead, that means an increased chance of high volatility as the various reports come out. The Labor Department's job creation report, due Friday, will be of particular interest given that more jobs usually translates into more disposable income, which helps our consumer-driven economy.

If the jobs number is lower than expected, that could cause the market to give up the gains from last week — if stocks hadn't already moved lower earlier due to high oil prices, other poor economic data and the expected raft of companies issuing reduced earnings forecasts.

more

[ozymandius]

5. Here's a canary in the coal mine story.

Family Dollar Store Earnings Slide

NEW YORK - Family Dollar Stores Inc. said profit in the latest quarter fell 30 percent as surging gasoline prices hit lower-income consumers and expenses rose.

The Matthews, N.C., dollar-store retail chain on Thursday said it earned $29.2 million, or 18 cents a share, on sales of $1.43 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter ended Aug. 27.

-cut-

Lower-margin consumable items drove the increase, helped by the newly installed coolers in about 1,000 stores. But while average transaction sizes increased overall, the number of transactions in comparable stores fell.

"Our customers have been running out of money and making fewer trips during the month, but are spending more to replenish when they do have the cash," Chairman and Chief Executive Howard Levine told analysts.

more

[UpInArms]

6. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 90.03 Change +0.51 (+0.57%)

Dollar jumps on rate expectations, tankan hits yen

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=URI:urn:newsml:reuters.com:20051003:MTFH89275_2005-10-03_10-24-46_L03489351:1

LONDON, Oct 3 (Reuters) - The dollar ran to a 16-month high against the yen and a three-month peak versus the euro on Monday, boosted by anticipation of more U.S. interest rate rises and a disappointing survey of corporate sentiment in Japan.

With investors focused more on inflation than growth, the dollar also surged to a two-month high against the Swiss franc and sterling.

By 0952 GMT, it was up 0.8 percent at $1.1933, after hitting a three-month high at $1.1919 earlier in the session.

It was up nearly half a percent near a 16-month high versus the yen at 114.02.

"I think this dollar momentum should stay in place for a little while, if we get a strong close...it looks like we could challenge the year's high ($1.1866) ," HBOS currency strategist Naeem Wahid said.

The headline diffusion index for big manufacturers in the Bank of Japan's quarterly tankan survey of business confidence was plus 19 for September, up a tad from the June survey but slightly below financial markets' expectations for a reading of plus 20.

"Markets are now shifting their attention to inflation and that's providing support to the dollar. I think Tankan was a bit disappointing, but not significant (enough) to cause a rapid dip in the yen," Mitual Kotecha, head of currency research at Calyon in London said.

...more...

Dollar Remains On Warpath

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3894&Itemid=39

Dollar finished consolidating its recent gains and advanced against the majors across the board, posting new 2005 high against the Japanese yen as the pair broke above 114.00. However the overall feel for the market remains heavy, and while the trend mode remains, a new outlook emerges that the market may not be ready for a trend and another retrace might be in works. However a break of the summer ranges will most likely see the dollar remain in a trend mode.

<snipping charts>

EUR/USD – Euro bulls remained on a menu as the pair slid below the psychologically important 1.2000 figure with greenback longs setting their sights on 1.1876, a 2005 Low. As dollar bulls continue to capture more of the euro held territory, the next move to the downside will most likely see the pair head lower and test euros defenses around 1.1876, a level marked by the 2005 Low. A break of the current 2005 low at 1.1876 will most likely see the single currency surrender further ground to the greenback as it would confirm a dollar dominated trend and see the pair head toward the next major level at 1.1760, a 2004 Low. A further break in the single currency defenses will most likely see the pair test 1.1633, a level marked by the June 4, 2003 daily low. Indicators are favoring the dollar bulls with both momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line, while extremely oversold Stochastic adds to a trending outlook as most prolonged moves to the downside happened after oscillators became oversold.

<snip>

USD/JPY – Japanese Yen longs once again became a prey to the dollar bulls as greenback longs managed to push the pair above the 114.00 handle, thus establishing a new 2005 high during another bout of USD bullishness. As the price action remains in favor of the greenback longs, the next move to the upside will most likely see the pair head toward the Japanese yen defenses around 114.92, a 2004 high. A break above the 114.92 will most likely see the dollar longs push the pair above the psychologically important 115.00 handle and take on the yen defenses around 115.76, a level marked by the September 4, 2003 A further advance by the greenback bulls will most likely see the Japanese yen longs try to mount a defense around 116.67, a level marked by the July 15, 2003 daily high. Indicators remain supportive of the dollar longs with both momentum indicator and MACD treading above the zero line, while overbought Stochastic most likely acts as a confirmation for the possible trend.

...more...

Japan MOF says efforts needed to fight deflation

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-03T072150Z_01_TKU002197_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-JAPAN-HOSOKAWA.XML

TOKYO, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Vice Finance Minister Koichi Hosokawa said on Monday that the Bank of Japan's tankan confirmed the economy is in a moderate recovery, but work is still needed to fight deflation.

"The economy is still in deflation so there is no change in the fact that utmost efforts are needed to overcome it," Hosokawa told a regular news conference.

He said he believed the BOJ shared his view that it was important to acknowledge that the economy was still in deflation.

The tankan survey on Monday showed Japanese business confidence gained slightly in the latest quarter but was weaker than forecast as rising energy costs dampened sentiment.

[54anickel]

68. NY gold retreats on profit-taking, spec liquidation

http://today.reuters.com/investing/MarketReportArticle.aspx?type=goldMktRpt&storyID=URI:urn:newsml:reuters.com:20051003:MTFH00305_2005-10-03_18-16-54_N03511030:1

NEW YORK, Oct 3 (Reuters) - U.S. gold futures finished lower Monday on speculative selling and after a bit of producer selling at quarter-end, but keen fund interest and expectations of higher prices still supported the market, dealers said.

Benchmark December delivery gold at the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange sank $3 to end at $469.30 an ounce, after trading between $472.20 and $467.20.

Profit taking and long liquidation weighed on futures as funds became technically overbought last week and as oil prices eased Monday, but gold still held close to its recent near-18-year peak on economic and geopolitical worries, traders and analysts said.

Dealers saw some safe-haven interest in gold after three bombs on Saturday ripped through restaurants packed with evening diners on the holiday island of Bali, killing up to 27 people and wounding 125.

more...

[54anickel]

69. The Dollar’s Problems Haven’t Gone Away

http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp

Five years ago, when the euro broke down to par we argued that it was time to buy the euro. Our reasoning was simple. Europe was an economic bloc with a significant current account surplus equal to roughly 1% of GDP. At that time, the US had a current account deficit equal to 4% of GDP which was rising (and continues to do so; this year’s figure will be well over 6%). Five years ago, Europe’s economies were rebounding. The US economy had been booming, but its strength was tied to an untenable stock market bubble, which ultimately burst.



Today, Europe again looks like the sick man of the global economy. Its economies have some slack and room to grow; by contrast, the US economy is at full resource use with little room to grow at it recent pace, triggering a series of “measured” rate rises. The argument that the dollar should be strong against the euro based on current growth rates and correspondingly different expectations regarding interest rates has engendered strong private speculative flows in favor of the greenback over the course of 2005.



Market observers look at the weakness in the euro and conclude that the wisdom of the market must be telling them something. The current favorite theme is that the market is telling us that the European experiment in monetary union will not work among these independent nation states. We ourselves have always thought that there might be serious political strains at some point in the future that would test the workability of European monetary union. To a degree, gold’s recent strength has been underpinned by this growing perception. We may indeed be closer to that potential scenario in the wake of the inconclusive German election result, but feel that nothing like that is at hand imminently. The loss of confidence in the euro is likely to grow from an accretion of events occurring over years, not months.



In the interim, for all of the furor about Germany’s current malaise, it is still worth noting that the country remains the world’s most successful exporter. And the euro zone as a whole is hardly collapsing: credit growth remains surprisingly accommodative, whilst German and Italian measures of business confidence unexpectedly rose last month. The data is still patchy, but is certainly not verging on renewed recession. With the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (the HICP being the most common measure of inflation in the euro zone) now consistently above the central bank’s mandated 2% target, the ECB could well surprise market participants by raising rates faster than expected.



We conclude that today’s dollar strength is simply another symptom of the incredibly trending and unstable market environment in which we operate. What has prompted and sustained this shift in foreign private portfolio preferences toward US government securities, even as spreads between US government securities and comparable maturity foreign government securities shrank (and actually inverted in some cases), even as currency losses started to eat away at foreign investors returns, and even as US yields approached 40-year lows, (suggesting immense risk of capital losses should the level of US interest rates ever mean revert)? Was this simply the flip side of intense risk aversion to US equities and corporate bonds that built up in 2002?

more...

[UpInArms]

7. Today's Reports:

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

Oct 3	10:00 AM	Construction Spending	Aug	-	0.7%	0.4%	0.0%	-	
Oct 3	10:00 AM	ISM Index		Sep	-	54.0	52.0	53.6	-
Oct 3	12:00 AM	Auto Sales		Sep	-	5.4M	5.3M	5.6M	-	
Oct 3	12:00 AM	Truck Sales		Sep	-	7.4M	7.5M	7.8M	-

[UpInArms]

26. Construction reports in:

10:00am 10/03/05 U.S. AUG. PUBLIC CONSTRUCTION OUTLAYS UP 0.5%

10:00am 10/03/05 U.S. AUG. PVT. CONSTRUCTION OUTLAYS UP 0.4%

10:00am 10/03/05 U.S. AUG. RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION OUTLAYS UP 0.2%

10:00am 10/03/05 U.S. JULY CONSTRUCTION SPENDING REVISED UP 0.3% VS. 0.0%

10:00am 10/03/05 U.S. AUG. CONSTRUCTION SPENDING UP 0.4% VS. 0.8% EXPECTED

Construction outlays up 0.4%
Nonresidential private building jumps 0.8%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B4AB48722%2D6144%2D411B%2DA5EA%2DA9B745D8CDAF%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Spending on U.S. construction projects increased 0.4% in August, the biggest increase in three months, the Commerce Department estimated Monday.

The increase was half the 0.8% expected by Wall Street economists, but an upward revision to July's spending from 0.0% to 0.3% put August's total spending near expectations.

Most categories of spending showed modest gains in August, ahead of the destructive hurricanes. Construction spending is expected to soar in coming months as rebuilding efforts get into full swing.

Construction outlays have increased 6.1% since August 2004. The figures are seasonally adjusted, but are not adjusted for inflation.

Residential construction outlays increased 0.2% in August after no change in July.

Spending by the private sector increased 0.4% in August after climbing 0.1% in July. Public-sector spending increased 0.5% in August after a 0.6% gain in July.

Nonresidential private spending increased 0.8%, the biggest increase since March. Nonresidential private spending plunged during the first part of the recovery, but has now increased 3.7% in the past year.

The largest gains in the private sector in August came in amusement and recreation (up 6%), power (up 2.9%) and manufacturing (up 1.3%). Spending on factories is up 22.1% in the past year. Spending on offices and religious buildings fell slightly in August.

...more...

[UpInArms]

27. ISM report in:

10:03am 10/03/05 U.S. SEPT ISM JOB INDEX 53.1% VS 52.6% IN AUG

10:01am 10/03/05 U.S. SEPT. ISM FACTORY INDEX ABOVE 52.1% CONSENSUS

10:01am 10/03/05 U.S. SEPT. ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX 59.4% VS 53.6% IN AUG.

(on edit - added the following)

U.S. Sept. ISM manufacturing index 59.4% vs 53.6% in Aug.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38628.4213325231-844579348&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Factory activity in the United States accelerated in September, the Institute for Supply Management reported Monday. The ISM index rose to 59.4% in September from 53.6% in August. The rise was unexpected. The consensus forecast of estimates collected by Marketwatch was for the index to slip to 52.1 %. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. New orders rose to 63.8% in September from 56.4% in August. The employment index rose to 53.1% from 52.6%. The price index soared to 78.0% from 62.5%.

I do believe that last line has thrown a wrench into the works.

[ozymandius]

65. See post #64 for more info.

[UpInArms]

39. Ford Sept. U.S. sales fall 19% to 228,157; SUVs plunge

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38628.5099814236-844587969&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Ford Motor (F) on Monday posted a 19% decline in September U.S. sales to 228,157 cars and trucks, due mainly to a sharp move away from traditional SUVs. The automaker also said customers did most of their buying in the summer when employee discounting sparked an industrywide sales boom. Car and crossover sales actually improved but traditional SUVs saw a 51% plunge amid soaring gasoline prices.

[ozymandius]

42. GM executives: take note

you brainless gits! SUV sales plunged. Yet, GM sees fit to offer us more.

Envoy
2WD Models Vortec™ 4200 Inline 6-cylinder 16/22 22 gallon tank
4WD Models Vortec™ 4200 Inline 6-cylinder 15/21 22 gallon tank

XL
2WD Models Vortec™ 4200 Inline 6-cylinder 15/19 25 gallon tank
4WD Models Vortec 4200 Inline 6-cylinder 14/18 25 gallon tank
2WD Models Vortec 5300 V8 15/20 25 gallon tank
4WD Models Vortec 5300 V8 14/19 25 gallon tank

Denali
2WD Models Vortec™ 5300 V8 16/20 22 gallon tank
4WD Models Vortec™ 5300 V8 15/19 22 gallon tank

XL Denali
2WD Models Vortec™ 5300 V8 15/20 25 gallon tank
4WD Models Vortec 5300 V8 14/19 25 gallon tank

[UpInArms]

46. General Motors Sept. U.S. sales fall 24%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38628.5829579398-844595538&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- General Motors (GM) on Monday posted a 24% decline in September U.S. sales to 349,202 vehicles. Car sales fell 14.5% while truck sales plunged 29.5%. The world's biggest automaker blamed a tough comparison to last year when it was promoting zero-percent financing. The diminishing effect of its employee pricing plan was also a factor. GM didn't change its 1.3-million vehicle production forecast for the fourth quarter.

[UpInArms]

40. DaimlerChrysler Sept. U.S. sales rise 4%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38628.4947720139-844586429&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- DaimlerChrysler (DCX) on Monday posted a 4% rise in September U.S. sales to 193,108 vehicles. The Chrysler side rode the strength of nine new models in 2004, including the Dodge Charger and Jeep Commander, to a 4% increase to 175,556 cars and trucks. Mercedes-Benz, which has been dented with quality concerns lately, turned in a 1% rise to 17,552.

[UpInArms]

45. Nissan Sept. U.S. sales jump 16.4%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38628.5483426736-844591975&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Nissan North America (NSANY) on Monday reported a 16.4% increase in September U.S. sales to 93,540 vehicles, with strong showings from the Nissan Altima sedan and Murano crossover as well as the all-new Infiniti M. The Pathfinder bucked an industry downtrend for traditional SUVs with sales more than doubling to 5,088 vehicles.

[UpInArms]

47. Toyota Sept. U.S. sales jump 10.3%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7B3CD0919F-235C-4B13-A019-7A9FF74BD801%7D&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Toyota Motor Sales, U.S.A (TM) on Monday reported a 10.3% rise in September U.S. sales to 178,417 vehicles. Toyota brand cars jumped 22.9% with the Avalon full-size sedan leading the surge. Sales of the hybrid Prius almost doubled from a year ago to 8,193. Light truck sales fell 5.2% for the Toyota division while Lexus SUVs, including the new 400h hybrid, gained 3.6%.

[Roland99]

51. US sales tank...foreign makers' sales rise

Hmmmm...

[UpInArms]

52. Honda sales up 11.7% - anyone else see the trend?

(other than Roland :D )

2:22pm 10/03/05 HONDA DIVISION SEPT. U.S. SALES UP 13.4%

2:23pm 10/03/05 ACURA DIVISION SEPT. U.S. SALES UP 2.2%

2:17pm 10/03/05 HONDA SEPT. U.S. TRUCK SALES FALL 0.6%

2:16pm 10/03/05 HONDA SEPT. U.S. CAR SALES UP 20.2%

2:15pm 10/03/05 HONDA U.S. SEPT. VEHICLE SALES UP 11.7%

[AnneD]

57. for you pups out there

Detroit was making gas guzzeling POS's the last time we had a fuel crisis (the Arab Oil Embargo). Well the cars are better made and have a tad better mileage but this is all SSDD.

[UpInArms]

60. The 2005 energy crunch feels a lot like the 1970s

http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20051003/ts_csm/a1975;_ylt=A0SOwkGAekFDmlIAOgfsbr8F;_ylu=X3oDMTA4b3FrcXQ0BHNlYwMxNjkz

HOPKINTON, MASS. - A year ago, firewood entrepreneurs Gary and Bruce Garner sold 1,000 cords of wood, for about $180 apiece. This year, sensing increased demand, they bumped up the price to $220. But they still ran out of wood in September - two months earlier than last year.

Welcome to fall 2005, which is starting to look a lot like 1970s, when the aftermath of an Arab oil embargo crimped American energy consumption.

True, recent gas lines in Houston and elsewhere were caused by hurricanes rather than government rationing. Still, there are numerous signs - from wood stoves to locking gas caps - that the public may be on the cusp of moving back toward a more energy-conscious lifestyle.

"People seem more concerned now than they were back then," says Gary Garner, who began selling firewood with his brother in 1978, shortly before the second energy crisis.

Other echoes of the 1970s include:

• HearthStone, a Morrisville, Vt., wood-stove maker, has added a second shift to keep pace with demand. The company expects to ship some 15,00 stoves this year, 50 percent more than last year.

• Stant Manufacturing Inc., in Connersville, Ind., has ramped up production of locking gas-caps by 50 percent nationwide, amid a raft of gasoline thefts.

...more...

[ozymandius]

66. Here's a headline out of the 70s:

GM, Ford Sales Tumble in September

DETROIT - Sales of sport utility vehicles took a dive in September, dragging down U.S. automakers who were already expecting payback after a summer of employee-pricing discounts. Asian brands, which didn't offer employee discounts, felt less pain.

Several automakers reported strong car sales Monday, but SUVs took a hit industrywide in the U.S. market as gas prices skyrocketed following Hurricane Katrina. The Buick Rainier, Ford Explorer, Ford Expedition, Toyota Sequoia and Nissan Armada all saw their sales fall by 18 percent or more.

General Motors Corp. sales were down 24 percent overall, and its SUV and truck sales fell 30 percent. GM said it knew September would be a challenge after a summer of heavily promoted discounting. GM began letting consumers pay the employee price in June and ended the promotion Friday.

-cut-

Ford Motor Co. also took a hit, with sales down nearly 20 percent in September. Sales of Ford, Lincoln and Mercury cars were up 6 percent, but sales of trucks and SUVs fell nearly 28 percent. The company's overall sales were also flat for the first nine months of the year.

more

[UpInArms]

61. dupe post (?)

oops!

:blush:

[AnneD]

71. I checked my closet..

I have the platforms, quiana shirts, halter tops and flared pants. I even found a polyester leisure suit. Got Disco on CD (a big hit with the little kids that come into the clinic). So, if I start wearing them, can we bring back the 70's. Get down , get down,....baby tonight.

[UpInArms]

53. BMW says U.S. unit sales increase 1.6 percent

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=marketsNews&storyID=URI:urn:newsml:reuters.com:20051003:MTFH99458_2005-10-03_17-28-34_FAB008899:1

FRANKFURT, Oct 3 (Reuters) - German luxury carmaker BMW's (BMWG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) U.S. car sales rose 1.6 percent to 25,079 units in September, the company said on Monday.

Vehicle sales increased 4 percent to 225,641 in the first nine months of the year, BMW added.

[UpInArms]

8. Man Group 'helped US fund manager hide $175m loss'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2005/10/02/cnmang02.xml&menuId=242&sSheet=/money/2005/10/02/ixcitytop.html

Man Group, the world's biggest listed hedge fund company, is facing a contempt of court action in the US over allegations that it helped to hide $175m (£100m) in losses at a fund run by Philadelphia Alternative Asset Management.

The motion was filed last Tuesday in a court in Pennsylvania by Clark Hodgson, the receiver to Philadelphia Alternative Asset Management (PAAM), which raised around $300m from investors last year but collapsed in June.

Man Financial, a subsidiary of Man Group, acted as a broker to the PAAM fund, which was set up and run by Paul Eustace, a former star manager in the hedge fund world.

In his motion Hodgson accuses Man of helping Eustace to disguise his true investment performance. He allegedly used a secret account to hide $175m in losses. It is also alleged that these losses were not reported to investors.

...more...

4:00am 10/02/05 Man Group alleged to help hide $175M loss: reports - MarketWatch.com

http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/profile.asp?sid=120455&symb=UK:EMG&siteid=mktw

Man Group Website Annual Report
Lower Thames Street Sugar Quay Phone: [phone]
London EC3R 6DU

Fax: [phone]


Man Group PLC. The Group's principal activity is the provision of alternative investment products and solutions. It also acts as a futures broker. It operates through its two business segments. Asset management provides access for private and institutional investors worldwide to hedge fund and other alternative investment strategies through a range of products and solutions designed to deliver absolute returns with a low correlation to equity and bond market benchmarks. Brokerage provides brokerage services. It acts as a broker of futures, options and other equity derivatives for both institutional and private clients and as an intermediary in the world's metals, energy and foreign exchange markets.

[UpInArms]

9. Lifting the Lid: Bayou debacle puts spotlight on consultants

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=fundsNews2&storyID=URI:urn:newsml:reuters.com:20050930:MTFH59859_2005-09-30_22-38-01_N30478261:1

BOSTON, Sept 30 (Reuters) - The audacity of the fraud at the heart of the latest hedge fund scandal was difficult enough for investors to swallow, but they may find the resulting higher costs will hurt even more.

The blowup of the Bayou Group means that finding a good hedge fund became more difficult and expensive this week.

At least that is what consultants and lawyers who help funnel billions of dollars into these loosely regulated investment pools were saying hours after two managers told U.S. prosecutors how they ran the Bayou hedge fund into the ground.

Now people who watch the people who manage the funds are themselves going to be watched much more closely as investors try to make sure they won't dragged into the next blowup.

"The direction in which this case will lead the industry is that people will pay a lot more attention to the contracts that spell out what the consultants do and do not do," said Elizabeth Fries, a partner at law firm Goodwin Procter.

Lawyers and consultants gasped at the boldness of the deception that Bayou's founders, Samuel Israel III and Daniel Marino, described in pleading guilty to fraud on Thursday. The pair told prosecutors how they set up a fake accounting firm to cook the books and sent out letters describing gains when in fact they had losses some people said totaled $300 million.

...more...

[UpInArms]

10. Regulators probe possibly new MBIA woes-report

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=URI:urn:newsml:reuters.com:20051002:MTFH80911_2005-10-02_21-49-11_N02398571:1

NEW YORK, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Securities regulators are looking into a new area of possible impropriety at bond insurer MBIA Inc. (MBI.N: Quote, Profile, Research), which could delay or alter an expected settlement with authorities, a report said on Sunday.

Barron's said it has learned that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the New York state attorney general are investigating the $15 million purchase in 1996 of a 46 percent stake in Capital Asset Research, a buyer of delinquent municipal property-tax liens.

Persons in a position to know say that MBIA made misleading disclosures to investors and rating agencies, covering up the size of its exposure to Capital Assets' problems, Barron's reported in its Oct. 3 issue.

A former chief executive of Capital Asset, Richard Heitmeyer, said MBIA had not disclosed its full disclosure to his company, The Wall Street Journal reported in May. MBIA denied anything improper had occurred, the newspaper reported.

Investigators are now believed to be looking into MBIA's decision to continue to guarantee the bonds of Capital Asset after it learned in early 1998 that serious problems existed in the firm's tax-lien portfolio, the Barron's report said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

11. ‘TIS the SEASON for LAYOFFS

http://www.jobjournal.com/thisweek.asp?artid=1530

If history is any indication, job cutting, which was unusually heavy this summer, could heat up even more as temperatures cool. An analysis of records dating back to 1993 shows that the last four months of the year typically see the heaviest job cutting.

Now should be a time for workers to focus their energy on the steps necessary to preserve their jobs.

According to the our analysis, employers cut 10,149,381 jobs from 1993 through 2004. Of those, 38 percent occurred between September 1 and December 31. January through April was the next most likely period for cutbacks, historically averaging __ percent of the annual job losses.

In 2004, 41 percent of the year’s job cuts were announced in the last four months. This year, the jump may not be as large, simply due to the fact that layoff announcements were heavier than normal during the summer months, but we are still likely to see an increase. The last part of the year is crunch time for many organizations in terms of meeting earnings goals, as well as establishing budget levels for the coming year.

...more...

[UpInArms]

16. (Atlanta) PRG-Schultz to begin layoffs

http://atlanta.bizjournals.com/atlanta/stories/2005/10/03/daily1.html?jst=b_ln_hl

PRG-Schultz International Inc. plans to cut 378 jobs, including 71 sales general and administrative jobs at its Atlanta headquarters, as part of a restructuring.

The cuts, to be implemented by the fourth quarter, represent a total workforce reduction of 14 percent.

The recovery audit services firm (NASDAQ: PRGX) expects severance-related and other charges of $8.5 million, of which $1.6 million will be accrued during the third quarter. The jobs cuts will save the company $42.2 million annually.

<snip>

In July, the company reported a net loss of $6.3 million for the second quarter, hurt in part by $4.3 million in expenses for retirement benefits, analysis of strategic alternatives and cost reduction initiatives, the payment of its former Chairman, President and CEO John M. Cook $5.5 million over the next three years.

...more at link...

[AnneD]

21. Gee, a pink slip in your stocking....

could I get a lump of coal instead.

[UpInArms]

23. LOL! A lump of coal

would keep you warm - that is not in the plan.

[ozymandius]

12. Stocks Set to Open Mixed After Mergers

LONDON - U.S. stock futures are slightly higher Monday following some brisk mergers-and-acquisitions activity, though most involved companies based outside the U.S. August auto sales figures will be the data highlight of Monday, with ISM manufacturing data also on the agenda.

Dow Jones futures were recently down 6 points, S&P 500 futures rose 0.5 point and Nasdaq 100 futures were up 2 points.

-cut-

A disappointing third-quarter tankan survey from Japan weighed on Asia stocks, with Japan's Nikkei 225 falling 49 points, or 0.4 percent, and the yen also declining.

-cut-

The U.S. government has calculated General Motors Corp.'s pension fund deficit is $31 billion, against GM's view that its pension fund is fully funded, The New York Times reported Monday. Both the government agency's and GM's methods of tracking pensions are legally acceptable, the report said. The U.S. agency is not suggesting that the company is about to go bankrupt or that it needs $31 billion right away, because pensions are long-term obligations, the report added.

more

[ozymandius]

13. Stocks futures little changed before data

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stock futures pointed to a flat market open on Monday before data on manufacturing that is likely to show the negative impact of hurricanes Katrina and Rita on the U.S. economy.

The Institute for Supply Management's September report is expected to show U.S. manufacturing expanded at a slower pace than in August. Investors may also turn to data on construction spending in August and car sales later on Monday to gauge the health of the economy and consumer spending. Construction spending and ISM figures are due at 10 a.m. (1400 GMT)

S&P 500 futures were up 1.2 points, just above their fair value, a mathematical formula that evaluates their pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract.

-cut-

"Today's reports will be crucial to give investors a sense of what happened to manufacturing in the U.S. after the two hurricanes," said Mike Lenhoff, chief strategist at Brewing Dolphin Securities Ltd. "Good results have the potential to take the stock markets higher."

more

Whatcha wanna bet that Mr. Lenhoff is one of those evermore "surprised" analysts?

[UpInArms]

14. Human Genome to get U.S. govt anthrax drug deal

http://today.reuters.com/News/CrisesArticle.aspx?storyId=N03285994

WASHINGTON, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Human Genome Sciences Inc.<HGSI.O> plans to announce a deal with the U.S. government on Monday to provide as many as 100,000 doses of an experimental anthrax drug, the Washington Post reported.

The Rockville, Maryland-based company will sell the government a third of an ounce of the drug for $1.8 million, an amount sufficient for government testers to compare the product with competitors, the paper said.

On Friday, U.S. officials awarded a similar contract to Winnipeg, Canada-based Cangene Corp. <CNJ.TO> to supply its anthrax treatment product for a preliminary trial that could also lead to a larger order, the biotech firm said.

<snip>

Letters laced with anthrax killed five people in the weeks that followed the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks in New York and Washington, and many people were treated with strong antibiotics in case they had been infected. The cases have still not been solved.

...more at link...

[ozymandius]

15. Good morning UIA and everyone.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

I have been listening to chatter about Harriet Miers' nomination to the Supreme Court. Two things leave me wondering: why nominate another cypher (who has never issued an opinion about anything) and Bushco insider? How will her background as a corporate advocate color her hearing?

The fact that Bush has nominated a corporate lawyer is not surprising. Things like "Smokin'" Joe Barton must be gleeful.

[UpInArms]

17. Re Miers:

I think it's a last ditch effort to pack the USSC before the indictments come out.

:hi:

[AnneD]

20. My thoughts exactly...

Wonder if she will recuse herself if some of this stuff gets to the SCOTUS. After all, she was an advisor.....Oh silly me, he'll just do the blanket pardon thing (it is going on now as we speak and you wouldn't believe those getting a pardon) for all his cronies, end of story.

[UpInArms]

32. Longtime Confidante of Bush Has Never Been a Judge

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/03/politics/politicsspecial1/03cnd-scotus.html

excerpt:

Ms. Miers, 60, a longtime confidant of the president's, has never been a judge, and therefore lacks a long history of judicial rulings that could reveal ideological tendencies. Her positions on such ideologically charged issues as abortion and affirmative action are not clear.

<snip>

In choosing Ms. Miers as his nominee, Mr. Bush once again signaled the importance he places on personal loyalty and familiarity. Ms. Miers has served in a number of posts for the president, and at one point was his personal lawyer.

<snip>

If confirmed, Ms. Miers would be the first justice with no previous experience on the bench since President Nixon nominated William H. Rehnquist, then an assistant attorney general, as associate justice in 1972.

<snip>

Ms. Miers has also served Mr. Bush in the posts of assistant to the president, staff secretary and as deputy chief of staff. Previously, she had been co-managing partner at Locke Liddell & Sapp, a 400-member Texas law firm, and when that merged with another Texas law firm to form Locke, Purnell, Rain & Harrell, she became president of the new firm.

...more...

[UpInArms]

19. pre-opening blather

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.5.

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.5. The cash market is still headed for a modestly higher open...

The U.S. market may be taking somewhat of a bullish cue from European trading, which has been boosted by a handful of merger and acquisition related surges. Among them are Dutch telecom operator KPN, jumping upon reports that Telefonica de Espana bid $24 billion to buy it, Boots group and Alliance Unichem, soaring after the pharmacy retailers announced merger plans, and Trader Classified Media, on the rise following a report that News Corp. is in talks to buy the firm. To that end, the FTSE 100, the DAX, and the CAC have each gained 0.5% today... On the U.S. front, NRG Energy (NRG) has reportedly entered into a definitive agreement with Texas Genco, by which it will pay approximately $5.8 bln and create the nation's premier wholesale power generation company...

8:33AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.0. The stage remains set for the cash market's slightly higher start... While the corporate front is relatively quiet this morning, some upbeat news includes Walmart's (WMT) 3.8% same store sales growth guidance for Sept., which is at the high end of the company's +2-4% range, as well as Proctor & Gamble's (PG) reaffirmed earnings outlook following the Oct. 1 close of its Gillette (G) acquisition... Limiting the early upside, though, is the continued rise in prices across the energy complex...

8:05AM : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.0. Futures trade suggests a modestly higher open for the cash market today, despite an uptick in the price of crude (+$0.11 $66.35/bbl) and ahead of a dual dose of economic data scheduled for 10:00 release... Economists expect a read of 52.0 for the Sept. ISM Index, and a read of 0.4% for Aug. Construction Spending...

[UpInArms]

22. Bidness in LaLa Land

Dow 10,575.10 +6.40 (+0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,153.96 +2.27 (+0.11%)
S&P 500 1,229.83 +1.02 (+0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 4.337 +0.09 (+0.21%)

NYSE Volume 44,550,000
Nasdaq Volume 60,801,000

[ozymandius]

25. 9:54 giddiness and laughter

Dow 10,599.12 +30.42 (+0.29%)
Nasdaq 2,160.97 +9.28 (+0.43%)
S&P 500 1,232.62 +3.81 (+0.31%)
10-Yr Bond 43.36 +0.08 (+0.18%)
NYSE Volume 213,072,000
Nasdaq Volume 215,324,000

[UpInArms]

29. 10:07 EST who stopped clapping?

Dow 10,579.97 +11.27 (+0.11%)
Nasdaq 2,159.48 +7.79 (+0.36%)
S&P 500 1,230.56 +1.75 (+0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 4.339 +0.11 (+0.25%)

NYSE Volume 311,926,000
Nasdaq Volume 296,240,000

9:45AM: As futures trading had presaged, the equity market opened to the upside, with each of the three major averages above the unchanged mark and the S&P 500 beginning its eighth gaining session... Aside from Wal-Mart's (WMT 44.31 +0.49) reassuring Sept. same store sales guidance (+3.8%), which reflects little Katrina impact for the retailer expected to bear the brunt of higher energy costs, there is little news on the corporate front today - including a dearth of profit warnings as Q3 earnings season approaches...

As a reminder, the Sept. ISM survey on national manufacturing conditions will be released at the top of the hour; expectations are for a reading of 52.0...

[UpInArms]

31. 10:13 EST Inflation got you down?

Dow 10,562.06 -6.64 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,155.84 +4.15 (+0.19%)
S&P 500 1,229.25 +0.44 (+0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 4.345 +0.17 (+0.39%)

NYSE Volume 354,261,000
Nasdaq Volume 332,189,000

10:05AM: The indices stand relatively steady following bullish ISM data... The Sept. ISM survey of national manufacturing conditions rose to 59.4%, well above expectations of 52.0% and a previous read of 53.6% - managing to hold above the 50% level, which reflects expansion, for the 27th consecutive month... Construction and spending for Aug., meanwhile, meatched economists' 0.4% expectation... The Treasury market has, conversely, slid upon intitial reaction to the data. The 10-year note off 13 ticks and presently yielding 4.38%...NYSE Adv/Dec 1876/912, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1643/874

[UpInArms]

24. US Treasuries a touch lower ahead of factory data

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-03T132141Z_01_N03330346_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 3 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries were little changed on Monday ahead of key manufacturing data expected to give further insight into the health of the U.S. economy after two major hurricanes slammed the Gulf Coast in recent weeks.

The Institute for Supply Management releases its September manufacturing index at 10 a.m. (1400 GMT), with economists in a Reuters survey expecting a median reading of 52.0, down from 53.6 in August.

Analysts' expectations were mixed, with some seeing the possibility of an upside surprise, given the strength of Friday's survey on Midwest business.

"The Chicago PMI data has become highly volatile, but the jump from 49 to above 60 certainly suggests upside potential for ISM on Monday," economists at BNP Paribas said in a research note.

The two-year note was steady at 4.17 percent after rising to its highest in over four years at 4.19 percent on Friday.

Some said weekend suicide bombings in Bali were supporting prices on a safe-haven bid even though recent softness in two-year note prices reflect views the Federal Reserve intends to raise short-term interest rates further to control inflation.

...more...

[UpInArms]

30. Treasurys slump as ISM data seen keeping Fed hikes on table

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38628.4240107176-844579551&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Modest Treasury declines turned to deeper losses following the release of a key manufacturing measure that came in well above expectations. The Institute for Supply Management's monthly index improved to 59.4% in September from 53.6% in August. Economists thought the index would moderate in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. Key for the inflation-wary bond market -- and perhaps the inflation-fighting Federal Reserve -- the report's measure of prices jumped to 78% from 62.5%. The benchmark 10-year note was last 12/32 lower at 99, losing just short of $5 for each $1,000 in securities at face value. The note's yield ($TNX) rose to 4.38% from 4.32% Friday.

[UpInArms]

48. Check-Kiting: US Treasury to sell $13 bln cash management bills

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-03T150658Z_01_WBT003965_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-CASHMANAGEMENT-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Oct 3 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department said on Monday it would sell $13 billion of 11-day cash management bills on Wednesday, Oct. 5.

The bills will settle Thursday Oct. 6, and carry a net long position reporting threshold of $4.55 billion, Treasury said. Their CUSIP number is 912795TQ4.

Noncompetitive bids must be received by noon EDT (1600 GMT) and competitive bids by 1:00 p.m. EDT (1700 GMT).

[UpInArms]

49. More Check-Kiting: U.S. Treasury to sell $8 bln 4-week bills Tuesday

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-03T150224Z_01_WBT003966_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-BILLS-ANNOUNCEMENT-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Oct 3 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department said on Monday it will sell $8 billion of four-week bills on Tuesday, Oct. 4.

The bills will be issued on Oct. 6.

Proceeds from the sale will be used to refund about $10 billion of publicly held bills maturing Oct. 6, and to pay down about $2 billion of debt, the Treasury said.

The four-week bills announced on Tuesday mature Nov. 3. The Treasury said the net long position reporting threshold is $2.80 billion.

Noncompetitive bids must be received noon EDT (1600 GMT) and competitive bids by 1:00 p.m. EDT (1700 GMT).

...a bit more...

[UpInArms]

50. ISM inflation reading leaves 10-year yield at 7-week high

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B97716B20%2D58FB%2D4EAD%2D9A8F%2DF0E311F23AE3%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - Treasury bond prices declined Monday, driving benchmark yields to their highest in nearly two months, after a manufacturing report showed limited national economic harm from Hurricane Katrina save for the storm's contribution to record-high crude and gas prices.

The report fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve would not soon suspend efforts to insulate the broader economy from inflation by raising interest rates.

"With slack in the manufacturing sector quickly fading, the current environment is ripe for manufacturers to pass through some of the recent price increases to consumer goods," said Daniel Jester, who follows the economy and fixed-income markets for Economy.com.

"We expect that the Fed will react to these stronger pipeline pressures by maintaining its hawkish stance in the coming months."

At last check, the closely tracked 10-year government note was down 13/32 to 98 31/32. That equates to just under $5 lost per each $1,000 in securities at face value. The price decline raised its yield ($TNX: news, chart, profile) to 4.38% from 4.33% Friday.

<snip>

But key for the inflation-wary bond market - and likely for the inflation-mindful central bank - the ISM price index soared to 78% from 62.5%. Factories and other businesses have seen their costs for energy and other raw materials surge. They've so far been limited in passing along those costs, but perhaps not for long.

The 15.5-point gain for ISM prices between August and September was the most since 1990. It followed a 14-point gain between July and August.

...more...

[UpInArms]

73. TREASURY TO DELAY CURRENCY REPORT UNTIL EARLY NOVEMBER

4:37pm 10/03/05 TREASURY'S SNOW TO HAVE MEETINGS IN CHINA OCT. 11-18

4:37pm 10/03/05 TREASURY TO DELAY CURRENCY REPORT UNTIL EARLY NOVEMBER

4:37pm 10/03/05 TREASURY NAMES LOEVINGER AS FINANCIAL ATTACHE TO CHINA

[UpInArms]

77. Treasury to delay currency report until early November

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38628.7009885532-844608298&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Treasury Department will delay its report about foreign currency practices until after Secretary John Snow returns from a trip to China and Japan, Treasury spokesman Tony Fratto said Monday. The administration will determine whether China and other countries manipulate their currencies for trade advantages sometime in early November. Snow is traveling to China to meet government and financial officials, as well as counterparts at a meeting of the G-20 nations. Separately, David Loevinger will be the U.S.'s new financial attache in Beijing, a newly created post, Treasury announced.

[ozymandius]

35. 10:40 - a mixed bag

Dow 10,547.49 -21.21 (-0.20%)
Nasdaq 2,154.74 +3.05 (+0.14%)
S&P 500 1,226.70 -2.11 (-0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 43.81 +0.53 (+1.22%)
NYSE Volume 519,572,000
Nasdaq Volume 472,087,000

10:30AM: The Dow and S&P have fallen below the flat line as traders digest the recent Sept. ISM Index read... While the higher than expected 59.4, which reflects a 10.8% rise over last month's figure, indicates that national conditions remain upbeat post-Katrina, it simultaneously fans inflation concerns and triggers a residual expectation that the Fed will remain in its tightening mode...

To that end, the bond market remains week, with the 10-year (-15/32) offering 4.38%, and the rate-sensitive Financial sector (-0.2%) is currently the strongest impediment to the market's upward efforts. Banks, in particular, are off 0.1%... Leadership in general, though, is limited, with Utilities pacing the way with its modest 0.3% gain...NYSE Adv/Dec 1759/1161, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1549/1140

[ozymandius]

36. markets are just hangin' out

11:33
Dow 10,548.69 -20.01 (-0.19%)
Nasdaq 2,158.72 +7.03 (+0.33%)
S&P 500 1,227.45 -1.36 (-0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 43.88 +0.60 (+1.39%)
NYSE Volume 773,401,000
Nasdaq Volume 696,335,000

11:00AM: The Dow and S&P continue to fade while the Nasdaq manages to remain above water, largely due to the Tech sector's leading 0.3% gain... Chip stocks have gotten a boost from the latest Semiconductor Industry Association figures, which showed worldwide chip sales rose to $18.6 billion in August and reflects a 3.2% increase over July's figures...

A favorable mention in Barron's has helped Motorola (MOT 22.49 +0.46) shares surge 2.1%, a gain that lends further support. Technology and Utilities (+0.2%) currently stand alone on positive turf, with Consumer Discretionary hovering around the flat line and the remaining seven sectors in the red...NYSE Adv/Dec 1576/1398, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1472/1288

[UpInArms]

37. NASD orders firms to pay $5.8 mln-plus for market timing

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38628.4932236806-844586279&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=&value=&categories=&

BOSTON (MarketWatch) - The National Association of Securities Dealers Monday announced three new enforcement actions related to market timing. ING Fund Distributors, Janney Montgomery Scott and First Allied Securities are being ordered to pay a total of $3.1 million in fines and more than $2.7 million in restitution to the affected mutual funds. NASD also sanctioned individuals involved in the improper market timing at each firm. The cases collectively represent a cross-section of firms and violations common to illicit market timing, the NASD said.

[ozymandius]

41. What's a bond market to do with stocks like this?

12:47
Dow 10,533.56 -35.14 (-0.33%)
Nasdaq 2,155.20 +3.51 (+0.16%)
S&P 500 1,226.22 -2.59 (-0.21%)
10-Yr Bond 43.76 +0.48 (+1.11%)
NYSE Volume 1,040,969,000
Nasdaq Volume 937,090,000

12:30PM: The equity market holds steady, as little has occurred over the past half hour... Utilities have extended their morning gain and, with its 0.5% rise, currently stands as the session's leader. Lending particular support to the sector has been Entergy Corp. (ETR 75.68 +1.36), up 1.8% upon an upgrade at UBS; due to rising natural gas prices, the firm changed its investment opinion on ETR to Buy from Neutral and raised its price target... As a whole, the sector is up 20.1% on the year, second to only Energy's 40.0% gain... NYSE Adv/Dec 1693/1404, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1582/1316

12:00PM: The market's majors have spent the morning trading in mixed fashion within a relatively tight range...

While opening on the upside, a lack of spirited leadership and a double dose of economic data at 10:00 ET sparked selling pressure across the equity markets and sent Treasuries even lower. Specifically, the Sept. ISM Index checked in at 59.4, a 10.8% increase over last month's read and well above the 52.0 that economists had expected. While the data are essentially bullish for stocks, the figure showed that, even post-Katrina, the economy remains strong and thus fanned inflation worries, exacerbated traders' fixation upon rising interest rates, and triggered the expectation that the Fed has more hikes in store... With respect to sector performance, Tech has stood as the brightest spot and keeps the Nasdaq above water with its 0.4% gain. While several tech sub-areas demonstrate relative strength, chip stocks are the particular crutch; the latest Semiconductor Industry Association figures showed worldwide sales rose to $18.6 bln in Aug., which reflects a 3.2% increase over the prior month's figures, and has boosted the group 1.4%...

[ozymandius]

43. numbers and fresh blather

1:06
Dow 10,536.36 -32.34 (-0.31%)
Nasdaq 2,156.00 +4.31 (+0.20%)
S&P 500 1,226.49 -2.32 (-0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 43.76 +0.48 (+1.11%)

NYSE Volume 1,100,916,000
Nasdaq Volume 988,719,000

1:00PM: The bluechip average heads further south in the absence of leadership and amid losses extended by 19 of its 30 components. In particular, Alcoa (AA 23.93), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 28.88 -0.32), and Exxon Mobil (XOM 62.70 -0.84) levy respective declines of 2.0%, 1.1%, and 1.3% - weighing up on the overall market and trumping 1.1%, 0.9%, and 0.9% respective gains in McDonald's (MCD 33.86 +0.37), Intel (INTC 24.87 +0.22), and Merck (MRK 27.44 +0.23)... The S&P and Nasdaq, meanwhile, have held relatively steady.NYSE Adv/Dec 1622/1509, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1524/1415

[UpInArms]

44. Link to a database of FEMA contracts from Hurricane Katrina

http://www.taxpayer.net/budget/katrinaspending/contracts/index.htm

Federal Budget and Tax Policy

Known contracts let by the federal government for reconstruction in the Gulf Coast in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. Blank squares indicate that a contract has been let but the amount remains unknown.

Click on a company name for more information about the company and the contracts it has been awarded.

(the rest of contractors and links with amounts)

...more...

[AnneD]

54. I guess Haliburton is not on the list 'cause...

they didn't have to bid? I just feel it in my gut that there is a 2nd set of books floating out there.

[54anickel]

56. Kohn, Long Shot for Fed Chief, Helped Shape Greenspan's Views

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=afStTIVubJdw&refer=us

Oct. 3 (Bloomberg) -- No matter whom President George W. Bush picks as a successor to Alan Greenspan in the next few months, Donald Kohn is likely to wield large influence over the way the Federal Reserve thinks about interest rates and the U.S. economy.

During his 30 years at the Board of Governors, Kohn, 62, has attended more policy meetings than any current Fed member. He served as Greenspan's top strategist for 15 years before Bush promoted him to governor in 2002. He embraces much of Greenspan's thinking on financial markets, risk and interest-rate policy.

snip>

Kohn shows up as a long-odds candidate to replace Greenspan in surveys and on betting sites, well behind leader Ben S. Bernanke, a former Fed governor and now chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers. One drawback: Kohn has few visible alliances on Capitol Hill, analysts say. Kohn says he has no party affiliation and declined to be interviewed for this story, according to a Federal Reserve spokesman.

snip>

Greenspan Era

``If you talk to the Fed staff in private and ask them who would Greenspan like to replace him, the answer would be Don Kohn,'' says Roger Kubarych, economic adviser to HVB America Inc. and a former deputy director of research at the New York Fed. A Fed spokeswoman declined to comment.

The 79-year-old Greenspan's non-renewable term as a governor expires in January. With two other vacancies for Fed governors, Bush's appointments may change the board's style and approach. Kohn's influence as a reference point on policy during Greenspan's 18-year term is likely to be welcomed by the Fed's staff of 230 Ph.D.'s and investors alike.

more...

[ozymandius]

58. paint continues to dry

3:00
Dow 10,549.34 -19.36 (-0.18%)
Nasdaq 2,158.44 +6.75 (+0.31%)
S&P 500 1,228.19 -0.62 (-0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 43.86 +0.58 (+1.34%)
NYSE Volume 1,548,688,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,391,282,000

2:30PM: As traders continue to keep the stock market tightly bound, Treasuries similarly relatively static... To that end, the benchmark 10-year note is currently off 16 ticks and offering investors 4.39%... The greenback, however, has maintained its momentum over the course of the session. At a 16-month high versus the yen, the dollar began to rise during overnight trading after the Bank of Japan released its quarterly Tankan survey of business sentiment that showed confidence rose less than expected...

Versus the euro, the buck is at a more than two-month peak, bolstered by today's stronger than expected ISM index report and despite a better than forecast reading on the Eurozone manufacturing purchasing managers index...NYSE Adv/Dec 1677/1540, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1564/1424

2:00PM: Versus the Dow and S&P, the Nasdaq remains the best performer today, but, essentially, all three of the major averages have been unable to break from the days range...

The Financial sector's day-long 0.2% decline has capped the overall market's upward advances, bogged down by relative weakness in thrifts and mortgage as well as in a variety of insurance issues. Despite continued focus upon the Fed's tightening policy, and even though the bond market continues to languish today, banks have recovered, but the group's flat status and a modest rise in brokers (+0.2%) cannot counter wide-spread selling within the sector... Speaking of brokers, the sect's rise is largely a result of a Barron's cover story that named Merrill Lynch (MER 62.32 +0.97) the most fundamentally compelling investment opportunity within the space...NYSE Adv/Dec 1694/1509, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1572/1401

[54anickel]

59. Inflation, Bottled Up by Fed, Threatens to Burst Its Container

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aNQRxs8fhghw&refer=us

Oct. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Inflation, which Federal Reserve policy makers have proclaimed ``well-contained'' at least 11 times this year, is threatening to burst its container.

Rising energy costs are rapidly spilling over into the prices of everything from a bottle of Pepsi-Cola to a room at the Marriott, sparking concern that such increases are seeping into the pricing patterns of companies, and may accelerate throughout the economy.

snip>

The changing expectations reflect a shift in thinking among some economists who have been dismissing the jump in energy and commodity prices as temporary, focusing instead on the core indexes, which exclude volatile food and energy prices. The consumer price index has risen by 3.6 percent in the past 12 months, its biggest gain in four years; over the same period, the CPI core rate has risen 2.1 percent.

``The tremendous rise in all these costs has been steep enough and has gone on long enough that it's putting an awful lot of pressure on business costs,'' says Roger Kubarych, a former Fed staff economist who is now a senior economic adviser at HVB America Inc. in New York.

Policy Makers' Concerns

Fed policy makers themselves have expressed concern. At their Aug. 9 meeting, they said ``energy price increases probably would feed through, at least temporarily, to core measures of inflation,'' according to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee. Inflation as measured by a favorite Fed index, the personal consumption expenditures core rate, is near the top of the 2 percent range policy makers consider acceptable.

more...

[54anickel]

62. We're Awash In Liquidity (Aren't We?)

http://www.contraryinvestor.com/moprinter.htm

Less Room To Consume?...We're going to find out. As you know, one of the common phrases or characterizations of the broader economic and financial markets of the moment is that "we're awash in liquidity". To be honest, we really don’t dispute that description in the least. It does very well frame the global capital markets for the most part. But let’s drill down just a bit a look specifically at the US consumer. Just how's the US consumer doing when it comes to liquidity, per se? Is the US consumer also awash in liquidity? And the reason we bring this up is that the US consumer is now being hit with a series of rising cost headwinds on many fronts. As we’ll discuss in just a minute, the alternative minimum tax bite is now set to begin accelerating literally exponentially over the 2006-2011 period directly ahead. It's simply written in stone unless the existing tax laws are changed post haste. Moreover, higher energy costs are a reality right now and should increase in perceptual impact as winter heating bills hit mailboxes across America starting in just a few months. After levering up in a pretty big way during the current economy recovery cycle, do consumers have the liquidity reserve wherewithal to offset these all but guaranteed cost increases ahead without having to offset some type of alternative current consumption? And just how are the financial markets voting on an eventual outcome?

Let's start with a few broad perspectives of the current economic recovery to set the stage as to how the current cycle may be differing from past cycles in terms of the economy and systemic leverage as well as the economy and energy costs. The following tables spell it all out. The first is simply an update of a table we have published in the past. We're simply looking at nominal GDP growth in each period relative to the nominal increase in total credit market debt outstanding. Remember, total credit market debt includes government, corporate, household, financial sector, and state and local muni debt. The whole systemic leverage shooting match, so to speak. You already know that it has been this way for a while now in terms of dollars of systemic leverage growth compared to dollars of GDP growth. System wide leverage relative to GDP really started accelerating in the 1980's (with the baby boom generation coming of age) and has not as of yet begun to slow in terms of trajectory. To be honest, nothing new here. The current cycle is simply an acceleration relative to what has been seen in prior cycles. Can it be said that it's taking more dollars of system wide debt to produce an additional dollar of GDP at present? If that's not what the following table suggests, then what is it saying?

snip>

We're not bringing this up in an attempt to "predict" the next US recession, but rather to suggest that the US consumer is facing stress in terms of immediate energy consumption costs. Stress that can surely be alleviated if US consumers have access to household liquidity to fund higher energy costs as an alternative to cutting back on consumption in other areas of their lives. Higher energy costs, both direct and the flow through from the energy input component to broad business costs, as well as higher implicit personal taxes due to the AMT, lie dead ahead. There's absolutely no uncertainty as to what's coming.

As opposed to looking at the consumer storms that have already made landfall, let’s quickly cast our eyes offshore in a direction we believe few are looking. First, as you might remember, tucked inside the recent Bankruptcy bill is the fact that minimum credit card payments are set to increase in the very near future. As we understand the legislation, minimum 2% of principal balance payments are going to 4%. A doubling in the cash amount of minimum payments. Now we know that many a cardholder out there pays in full each month. But there are also plenty of folks sending in minimum payment checks. As of the end of June of this year, there was $2.1 trillion dollars of outstanding consumer credit balances in this country (revolving and non-revolving credit card debt). Assuming minimum payments were being made on this debt, the increase from 2% to 4% mandated minimum payments would total an increase of $42 billion monthly. Of course this is coming right in front of the 2005 holiday shopping season. Glad tidings, right? Although this is a well-known fact, we see very little attention being paid to the ramifications of this legislation on consumer spending late in '05 and continuing onto '06. Wanna bet Wal-Mart is paying full attention given their recent stock price? You better believe they are. Of course Wal-Mart are the same folks who have been yakking about higher energy costs hurting their business at the moment.

The second offshore issue which appears to us to be receiving almost zero attention on the Street at the moment is the planned acceleration in the AMT tax (alternative minimum tax) to come in 2006 and beyond. In fact, the CBO (Congressional Budget Office) anticipates that in absolute dollars, the AMT tax for Americans will roughly double in 2006. Have no worries, that's nothing. By the CBO estimates, the AMT in dollars and cents will increase 5.4 times over the next five years. The following chart is taken directly from a recent CBO report entitled, "The Budget And Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2006-2015". The red bars represent what the CBO believes will be cash inflows to Federal coffers as a result of the current trajectory of the AMT tax. The blue line is the number of tax returns it will ultimately affect. That number will increase six fold over the next five years. Is the general consumer base in the US even aware of this? We think not. After all, it has received just about zero media attention. That we think will change in a big way ahead. As per the CBO estimates, AMT revenues in 2005 will approximate $15 billion, growing to just shy of $100 billion by 2010. In other words, are we watching all of the consumer tax breaks enacted since 9/11 being reversed? And then some, to be honest.

more...

[54anickel]

67. Global Liquidity Glut:

Last entry
http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.asp

September 30 – MarketNews (Steven K. Beckner): “The predominant topic at Friday’s Group of Seven finance ministers and central bankers meeting was the high and volatile cost of energy, but a senior U.S. Treasury official said there was also a lively discussion of ‘low’ interest rates and ‘narrow’ rate spreads -- and the risks they pose… And the official said the G7 is ‘monitoring’ rates and spreads to make sure they ‘appropriately’ reflect the level of risk…”

And last week from Reuters (Krista Hughes): “…on the agenda for IMF representatives would be the question of why long-term interest rates remain low at a time when many central banks, including the United States Federal Reserve, are raising official interest rates, the source said. Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan has called the development a conundrum. The source said central bankers’ job was not only to pose questions, but also to answer them. ‘Maybe we can solve Greenspan’s puzzle,’ he said. ‘Liquidity in the U.S. and globally has increased by degrees, that has already led to some exaggerations on bond markets, maybe that’s the puzzle,’ the source said.”

snip>

A very strong case can be made that global “financial conditions” have never been as loose. Perhaps global policymakers are scratching their heads. How is it possible that the Fed raises rates 11 times and global liquidity abundance becomes only more pronounced? Well, the problem is that “Tightening Lite” is not tightening at all. Unrelenting U.S. excesses have been accommodated by the Fed, assuring that U.S.-style leveraging, speculation and asset-based Credit excess take hold across the globe. And instead of tighter U.S. monetary policy working to reduce massive Current Account Deficits and the resulting Asian Liquidity Bubble, continued accommodation has fostered a second massive Liquidity Bubble throughout the oil producing economies.

The Global Liquidity Glut will require true global tightening. The Japanese and Europeans join the Fed “behind the curve.” And the longer global rates remain too low and liquidity overly abundant, the more problematic the unavoidable adjustment in global asset markets. The U.S. Mortgage Finance Bubble is well entrenched. The Global Energy Boom is now well entrenched. The Emerging Market Bubble is also now well entrenched. And the problem with well-entrenched Credit and Speculative Bubbles is that a period of excess engenders self-reinforcing “virtuous” cycles. Over time, fundamentals look increasingly alluring – and excess begets only greater excess. Latin America, for example, has enjoyed a bonanza of financial flows, which have stoked local currencies and market values. With liquidity flowing, asset prices rising and moderate inflation (for now) contained by strong local currencies, positive fundamentals are absolutely irresistible.

None of this is good news for U.S. markets. The Global Liquidity Glut will only make the Fed’s job more difficult. Furthermore, heightened global inflationary pressures ensure that the Fed will not be so quick to cut rates at the first sign of systemic stress, a favored assumption that has played a key role in keeping a lid on long-term U.S. rates. And while U.S. stocks did benefit during the quarter from the Global Liquidity Glut, their relative dismal performance portends a struggle ahead. The acutely imbalanced U.S. Bubble economy simply could not be more poorly prepared for higher rates and the unfolding global energy crunch.

more...

[54anickel]

63. War and Reconstruction

http://321energy.com/editorials/chapman/chapman100105.html

snip>

The rhetoric and concern from numerous corners that despite war and reconstruction that targets of halving the budget as planned must continue is merely partisan politics as the odds of it actual happening are slim to none. The huge amounts required for reconstruction are, well, just too large. Two of the districts hard hit by the hurricanes are represented by freshmen both of who owe their seats to redistricting through the now criminally indicted Tom DeLay. In order to keep seats funds will flow to ensure they stay in Republican hands. Indeed all the states hit by the hurricanes were Republican states and despite cries from some fiscal conservatives the funds will flow. Already there are stories of uncontested contracts being handed to select corporations (Halliburton). All of this is complicated by the commitments for defense spending already pegged at $440 billion for 2006 including another $50 billion for Iraq. And the so-called pork? Well too much of it is destined for states that are key Republican states that are up for re-election in 2006.

One of the major problems now is the now high cost of energy. While the world is probably experiencing a temporary glut of oil due to the release from strategic reserves, an increase in production and we are entering the slack demand season between the driving season and the heating season. So there is the probability that oil prices have topped for the moment. But that has not impacted the price of gasoline at the pumps nor may it save higher prices for heating oil in the winter. With a number of refineries down for probably at least a few months high gasoline prices will remain. There are areas of excess refinery capacity but it is not in the US where no new refineries have been built since the mid-1970’s. Indeed it has been revealed that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait offered refined products from their refineries that have been built up over years but that it was turned down by the White House (Executive Intelligence Review – September 23, 2005).

During the past year oil prices have jumped some 60% while Natural Gas prices have doubled. Some believe that there is upwards of $30/$40 premium in oil prices which is a terror premium and that it is purely speculative. Indeed since May oil prices are up over 30%. The period of the rise in oil prices has coincided with period of focus on hedge funds. It was in the early summer that the bond rating agencies cut the ratings on General Motor’s corporate bonds to junk. Numerous hedge funds were long the bond and short the stock. But at the same time Kirk Kerkorian announced he was buying GM stock and GM’s stock soared. So the hedge funds were caught out both ways.

Other hedge funds have been investigated for fraud two in particular KL Financial and Bayou Management LLC where potential losses are in the hundreds of millions. Here in Canada investigations continue into Portus Alternative Asset Management that is facing law suits and has been placed in receivership. There is estimated to be currently over $1 trillion in hedge funds. Hedge funds have become so huge and complex that any problem that develops could quickly mushroom into a huge problem and spark huge losses. Complicating it further is that numerous bank and investment dealer dealing desks are also trading in the same instruments. And the banking industry is laden with an $8.4 trillion credit derivatives market that could under the wrong circumstances also blow up in their faces.

So there are some who believe that recent sharp rise in oil prices in particular is not all due to supply and demand but rather a way to bail out problems looming in the hedge fund/banking/investment dealer industry. Keeping the possibility of higher oil prices alive is the ongoing rhetoric surrounding alleged nuclear ambitions of Iran. This is now being referred to the UN Security Council where any sanctions against Iran are sure to be vetoed by Russia and China both of who have billions of investments in the country particularly in the oil industry. Iran is a major oil producer. Still this may not stop an attack on Iran. The Pentagon has long outlined plans for limited nuclear attacks on non-nuclear adversaries through its Nuclear Posture Review in December 2001 and the Doctrine for Joint Nuclear Operations in March 2005 (both at www.globalsecurity.org).

Iran as well is on the verge of starting the Iranian Oil Bourse that will trade oil in Euros. This would be a major problem for the US$ (see Petrodollar Warfare: Dollars, Euros and the Upcoming Iranian Oil Bourse by William R. Clark at http://usa.mediamonitors.net/content/view/full/17450). We note that prior to the invasion of March 2003 Iraq accepted payment for oil in Euros only. After the successful invasion Iraq reverted to accepting payment in US$ once again.

more...

[ozymandius]

64. Manufacturing Sector Expands in September

NEW YORK - The nation's industrial sector issued an upbeat but also worrisome assessment of itself Monday: While manufacturing expanded strongly in September, shaking off the impact of Hurricane Katrina, prices for raw materials surged, raising the likelihood of higher inflation and interest rates.

The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index advanced to 59.4 percent in September from 53.6 percent the month before, for the industrial sector's 28th consecutive month of growth. It was the highest reading since the gauge hit 59.6 percent in August 2004 and well above the 54 percent reading that analysts had expected.

A reading above 50 indicates the sector is expanding; below 50 indicates manufacturing activity is shrinking. The index is compiled from a survey of purchasing executives in industries across the country.

But manufacturers reported another sharp jump in prices last month as higher crude oil costs and transportation problems caused by the hurricanes boosted input costs. The price index rose to 78 percent in September, a 15.5 percentage point rise from 62.5 percent in August, the institute said. The price index had jumped 14 percentage points the month before.

more

[54anickel]

70. Do Hedge Funds Calm Markets or Inflate Bubbles?:

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_lynn&sid=atvYpIaqIHMs

With the explosion of hedge funds -- there are now more than 7,000, controlling almost $900 billion in assets -- there is no hotter issue in global finance.

To some, hedge funds are reckless gamblers, using weird financial instruments to blow apart currencies and stocks, pushing up prices and creating speculative bubbles.

To others, they are benign new pools of capital that help investors by spreading their risk, and they stabilize the market by taking up contrary positions.

Who's right? A study in the October issue of the Journal of Finance, an academic publication produced by the American Finance Association, suggests the funds are inflating bubbles, not damping them. If it is right, one of the main defenses of hedge funds has been weakened. And much of the marketing hoopla in which the funds like to cloak themselves will have been punctured.

more...

[UpInArms]

78. U.S. hedge funds may slip past SEC, research shows

http://today.reuters.com/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2005-10-03T192717Z_01_N03166798_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-FUND-HEDGES.XML

BOSTON, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Hundreds of U.S. hedge funds may slip through the crack when they register with regulators, new research shows, causing a humiliating if not harmful situation as authorities begin to scrutinize the industry more closely.

Life will change for thousands of loosely regulated hedge funds in February, when they must follow a new rule designed to reduce fraud in the hugely popular and often secretive $1 trillion industry.

Funds that manage $30 million or more for 15 or more clients must register with the Securities and Exchange Commission and let the agency's inspectors review the hedge fund's books at any time.

With less than four months to go before the new rule takes effect, however, independent researchers, lawyers and even SEC officials said the agency's limited resources will be stretched dramatically, and some funds will not face the extra scrutiny -- at least not immediately.

"We expect that some 1,900 hedge funds will plan to register with the SEC before February and that the agency will get bottlenecked, which means that a lot of hedge funds will be registered by default," Brian Shapiro, president of Carbon360, the research arm of CarbonBased Consulting, told Reuters.

<snip>

Carbon360 based its research on public SEC documents and released it during the same week when the founders of collapsed hedge fund Bayou Group pleaded guilty to fraud, marking the latest industry blow-up. Federal and state investigators are still probing how the pair cheated investors out of an estimated $300 million.

...more...

[54anickel]

79. So it's too little, too late and the entire process will seem more like

a lot of wasted money that ended up protecting no one should this house of cards collapse. That's just great!

Making some pre-excuses? Sounds like this whole administration.

"We have neither the resources nor the expertise..."

[54anickel]

74. Government unveils Energy Hog to promote conservation

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory?id=1180472

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - With U.S. heating bills expected to hit record highs this winter, the Bush administration on Monday launched a conservation campaign featuring a cartoon mascot "Energy Hog," which critics said does little to discourage energy use.

Americans face higher heating bills due in part to crippled oil refineries, natural gas processing plants and producing platforms from Hurricanes Rita and Katrina.

snip>

Energy Secretary Sam Bodman and the Alliance to Save Energy consumer group on Monday launched what was billed as a major campaign to encourage Americans to cut energy use this winter. It dusts off mostly old energy-conservation tips such as adding home insulation and turning down thermostats.

To help sell the plan, the White House created a cartoon mascot, the Energy Hog. The pig, who wears blue jeans and a leather biker jacket, will follow in the footsteps of Smokey Bear and McGruff the Crime Dog by appearing in ads.

Public service announcements sent to 4,500 radio stations say that consumers "have the power" to manage their energy bills and ease "the pinch of high energy prices."

more...

Captain America, Spiderman and now Energy Hog - I just can't believe these people. :eyes:

[54anickel]

76. Cripes, this wasn't even an original idea - check this out

http://www.ase.org/content/news/detail/2293

Energy Hog Finds New Home at Alliance to Save Energy
Washington, D.C., July 6, 2005 – A black-leather-jacket-wearing, half-human/half-hog creature has moved in to the Alliance to Save Energy’s Washington, DC, headquarters. The dastardly Energy Hog character is bent on wasting energy and is the “spokesvillian” for the Ad Council’s campaign to raise awareness about the importance of energy efficiency and using energy wisely.

“I’m moving in, but don’t want no trouble,” the Energy Hog grunted and snorted “I just wanna stir things up a bit in my new digs.”

Joining the ranks of other famous Ad Council character icons such as Smoky Bear and McGruff the Crime Dog, the Energy Hog is featured in TV and radio public service advertisements (PSAs) for “tweens” ages 8-13 and will soon be featured in newspaper, magazine, and out-of-home PSAs targeted to adults. In its first year alone, the campaign garnered more than $31 million in donated advertising time and space, putting it into the “Top 10” campaign of all current Ad Council campaigns. The website, www.energyhog.org gets more than 50,000 unique visitors each month, as kids train to become Energy Hog Busters.

The campaign is designed to raise awareness of the benefits of reducing our demand for energy. Although energy prices are rising, consumers can take simple steps to reduce their home energy bills.

more...

http://www.energyhog.org/

[UpInArms]

75. closing with blather

Dow 10,535.48 -33.22 (-0.31%)
Nasdaq 2,155.43 +3.74 (+0.17%)
S&P 500 1,226.70 -2.11 (-0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 4.386 +0.58 (+1.34%)

NYSE Volume 2,050,073,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,840,751,000

The market's major averages spent the session locked inside a tight trading range, closing in mixed fashion as inflation concerns and soaring bond yields weighed upon sentiment...

A lack of influential leadership and a better than expected September ISM Index read sparked selling pressure across the equity market and reversed an upside open while simultaneously sending the bond market sliding. Checking in at 59.4, the data reflected a 10.8% jump in manufacturing growth over last month and far surpassed the 52.0 read that economists had expected. While the data were essentially bullish for stocks, the figure showed that, even post-Katrina, strong economic growth can also trigger expectations that the Fed has more hikes in store to stave off rising inflationary pressures...

With respect to sector performance, the Financial sector's day-long 0.2% effectively stunted the overall market's upward advances, as weakness in thrifts and mortgages as well as in a variety of insurance issues overshadowed a 0.5% rise in brokers for which Merrill Lynch (MER 62.20 +0.85) - following a cover story in Barron's that named the issue the most fundamentally compelling investment opportunity in the space - was largely responsible. Continued focus upon the Fed's tightening policy, the flattening yield curve, and consequential weakness in the bond market kept banks at the flat line, further contributing to the overall market's static stance... Healthcare (-0.01%) turned in a passive performance, suffering from broad-based selling pressure that negated the effect of a surging biotech group (+2.3%) and further halted the indices' attempts to break from the day's trading range...

Energy endured a 0.6% slide, due to profit-locking spurred by a sell-off in crude, but the commodity's decline did little for the Consumer Discretionary sector (-0.2%) as relative strength in homebuilders (+0.6%) was offset by the effects of rising prices at the pump... For its part, Lennar Corp. (LEN 61.69 +1.93) jumped 3.9% upon its addition to the S&P 500 - replacing Gillette (G) as Proctor & Gamble's (PG 59.41 -0.08) acquisition of the consumer staple cleared over the weekend...

Speaking of Consumer Staples, the sector also closed to the downside, pressured by about half its components' negative standing and analyst downgrades on Clorox (CLX 54.60 -0.94) and Kimberly Clark (KMB 59.16 -0.37); relative strength in tobacco and food-related issues, did, however, offer some offsetting gains... Wal-Mart (WMT 43.77 -0.05), meanwhile, announced that it forecasts Sept. same store sales (+3.8%) at the high end of its long-term target range and lent some added support...

On the other side of the fence was the Utilities sector (+1.0%), which chalked the most substantial gain today and extended its 20.4% year-to-date rise largely due to NRG Energy's (NRG 48.55 +5.95) $5.8 bln definitive agreement to purchase Texas Genco, and further benefited from a 2.1% rise in Entergy Corp. (ETR 76.01 +1.69) that an analyst upgrade fostered... The modest 0.2% gain that the Tech sector managed to sustain throughout the session lent the most substantial buttress today, and was responsible for the Nasdaq's outperformance and day-long gain. While several of the sector's groups lent relative strength, including hardware (+1.1%), chip stocks served as a particular prop; the latest Semiconductor Industry Association ("SIA") report showed worldwide sales rose to $18.6 billion in Aug., reflecting a 3.2% month-over-month rise that boosted the group about 1.0%...

Ultimately, though, the two sectors' gains did not suffice in inspiring the session's lackluster sentiment or breaching the indices' tight range... Bonds were under pressure all day as the stronger than expected read on ISM manufacturing and accompanied prices paid component, which spiked to a high for the year at 78, fueled speculation that the Fed will remain hawkish through the new year. To that end, the 10-year note (-16/32) offered investors a 4.39% yield at its close... DJTA -0.11, DJUA +1.22, DOT +0.50, Nasdaq 100 +0.25, Russell 2000 +0.39, SOX +0.59, S&P Midcap 400 +0.56, XOI -0.20, NYSE Adv/Dec 1791/1494, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1623/1422

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