German CDU looks set for a boost

[Eugene]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4302258.stm

Last Updated: Sunday, 2 October 2005, 18:06 GMT 19:06 UK

German CDU looks set for a boost

Early results from a delayed vote in Germany's inconclusive general
election show the Christian Democrats (CDU) slightly ahead.

The vote in the eastern city of Dresden is unlikely to affect the
overall outcome of the election.

But CDU leader Angela Merkel and Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder of the
Social Democrats (SPD) hope to boost their chances of leading a
coalition.

The Dresden vote was postponed when a candidate died during the
campaign.

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more...

[Kellanved]

1. It was a rather unfair episode

The German federal election system is pretty complicated, due to the application of mixed-mode ballots on a federal state.

A special side effect is the so-called "negative weight of the vote": depending on the numbers of votes a party wins in a given state, a seat might "jump state". If such a seat "jumps" into a state where that party has already won more districts than its proportional share, that seats simply vanishes, causing a set less for the party.

Normally that is no problem, as the effect tends to shorten itself out; with all ballots cast at once, it doesn't cause many errors.
This time however the conservative voters knew ahead, that they would win their party another seat by casting their votes for a third party; had they voted like their neighbors in the other Soxonian districts, the CDU would have lost a seat instead of gaining one.

[Karenina]

2. Übersetzung für Amis

beep: The I-10 is gridlocked from downtown to the ocean... please stay tuned. beep. :evilgrin:

[Kellanved]

3. That sums it up nicely

:evilgrin:

Stupid spell checker...

[Massacure]

4. Doesn't the government look to be hung though?

Can we see another election sometime soon if things don't straiten out.

[Kellanved]

5. possible, but not likely

By far the most likely outcome is a "Grand Coalition", a parliament without opposition.
70% of the seats held by the reigning parties, 20% by parties associated with either of the reigning parties and 10% by the bonkers left.