Reuters: NY warned to prepare for hurricane like Katrina

[420inTN]

NY warned to prepare for hurricane like Katrina
Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:48 PM ET

By Claudia Parsons

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Manhattan could be flooded and New York could suffer as much damage as New Orleans if it were hit by a catastrophic hurricane like one that passed just north of the city in 1938, experts warned on Monday.

"Major hurricanes are not limited to the Gulf Coast and Florida," said James Lee Witt, who was director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency from 1993 to 2000 in the Clinton administration.

He was speaking at the launch of a campaign to improve preparation for disasters such as Hurricane Katrina, which killed at least 883 people when it slammed into Louisiana and neighboring states last month with 140 mile-per-hour (224 kph) winds and a 30-foot (nine-metre) storm surge.

The ProtectingNewYork.org coalition, which includes insurance companies, will work to create a catastrophe fund like those already in place in Florida and California that would kick in if damage from a natural disaster, accident or attack reached a certain threshold, Witt said.

more, full story here: here

[soleft]

1. Does the water ever get warm enough up here for a cat 4?

[ClintonTyree]

3. They say a CAT 2 would be enough..........

to totally ruin NYC.

[KittyWampus]

4. Yes. Also, it need not be a cat. 4. In Manhattan,tall buildings would

create wind tunnels.

Here on eastern Long Island, the developement on Napeague stretch leading out to Montauk would cause the water to permanently breach the dunes.

Army Corp. Engineers already have a plan for the bridge that WILL eventually be put there.

[Zynx]

5. Read Article - it mentions the "Long Island Express" Hurricane

Sustained winds of 125 with gusts of 180+.

It can happen.

[Aviation Pro]

7. Only if the cyclone...

...got into the warmer waters of the Sound. Incidentally, 125 is a Cat 3 not a 4.

[HockeyMom]

15. Where would we go?

Just try to imagine 5++ million people trying to get off the Island on the LIE? Ferry to Connecticut? IMPOSSIBLE.

[Massacure]

18. That would be a logistical nightmare that would dwarf even Dunkirk.

[Sacajawea]

21. HockeyMom...It's easy...Just follow the "Coastal Evacuation Route" signs

that sprouted up on the Island a few years ago. My S.O. and I regularly laugh at them when we see them along Sunrise Highway out in eastern Suffolk. As if getting out of eastern L.I. (especially the South Fork) wasn't already nearly impossible on an ordinary summer Sunday late afternoon...:shrug:

[JerseygirlCT]

36. Not likely to have ferries running if the weather's looking iffy

and there aren't many, anyway.

The roads on a good day are awful. I can't imagine how they'd evacuate LI.

[Aviation Pro]

6. Here's the quick answer....

...the current sea surface temperatures for NYC are hovering between 72 - 74 F. This is warm enough to sustain a category 2 hurricane However, the winds are not as important as the size of the storm which would carry an immense amount of water and the storm surge ahead of it.

Most non-reality based carbon life forms (basically, pinhead Freepers) focus solely on wind intensity, because they equate power to wind (compensates for their small penises) and don't understand (because it's too scientifically complex for their small undernourished brains)that it's the water that kills the most people and damages the most buildings.

Here are the current SSTs for today (note the Gulf of Mexico and it's insane average of about 90 F).

img src=

[Beetwasher]

9. LOL!

"Most non-reality based carbon life forms (basically, pinhead Freepers) focus solely on wind intensity, because they equate power to wind (compensates for their small penises) and don't understand (because it's too scientifically complex for their small undernourished brains)that it's the water that kills the most people and damages the most buildings."

Love the snarkiness! :thumbsup:

A belated welcome! Good, informative post!

[Jersey Devil]

33. Cape May has 80 degree water in late Sept early Oct quite often

If a hurricane made it up this way it could sustain strength right up to the Jersey shore. Though they usually veer out to sea we've been very lucky. I've seen pics of New Hampshire after the 1938 hurricane that showed trees flattened like the pics from Mt St Helens.

[Lisa]

17. well, if they're listening to Limbaugh all day ...

... no wonder their minds would be focused on wind, and nothing else. Direct stimulus, you see.

[ClintonTyree]

2. Would it even be worth rebuilding?

:eyes: Yeah, I think so. Of course we'd have our cadre of Pukes telling us it isn't. They'd REALLY love to bust up New York's Democratic stronghold. Like that'll ever happen.

[Carni]

8. Wow! I had no idea NYC could sustain a hurricane!

I guess I should know this but didn't!

BTW what will the temperature of the great lakes do in regards to storms?

Ok I know-- I know...Hurricanes are formed in the ocean
(I am not THAT dumb) but it occurred to me last night that the waters of the great lakes were also super heated this summer.

Can anything similar to a hurricane form over large lakes? (I am assuming it would be in a smalled scale if it were even possible?)

Any weather types out there with an opinion on what might happen to overly warm lakes? Any storm dangers?

[karlrschneider]

11. Quick answer, no. The great lakes are big but nowhere close to big enuf

to permit anything like a hurricane...and they're relatively cold. Not much convective energy there.

[Ian David]

13. Tornados and Great Lakes

Tornadoes, high winds, hail blast Great Lakes region
10/25/2001 - Updated 08:44 PM ET
By Gene Kaiser, AP

DAVISBURG, Mich. — Thousands of people remained without power Thursday after a line of thunderstorms and tornadoes slashed through the Midwest, uprooting trees, snapping utility poles and leveling homes.

The ferocious autumn storm was being blamed for at least eight deaths.

One man was killed in southern Michigan and scores of others sought help for serious, storm-related injuries. Another Michigan man died while cleaning up debris.

A 4-year-old girl was killed and her mother critically injured in Tennessee after a tree toppled by 70 mph winds fell on their apartment. And a woman was killed in northern Indiana.

More:
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/news/2001/2001-10-25-severe-weather.htm


Also (and I have no idea what any of this means):

MAY 30-31, 1998 DERECHO
"The Southern Great Lakes Derecho of 1998"
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/may30-311998page.htm

[Ian David]

12. Documentary yesterday on The Science Channel on Tornados...

A Category 5 Tornado hitting Dallas could make Katrina look like a rained-out picnic.

Broken glass and debris would render the streets impassable to most emergency vehicles.

Glass and debris falling off the skycrapers, even after the storm had passed, would make it extremely dangerous for anyone to go outside.

It would get really, really bad.

Tornado Damage Risk Assessment Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex -- Summer 2000

Summary of Study Results

5 Full-Outbreak Scenarios
The first assessment involves placing the rectified damage contours of 53 tornadoes atop North Central Texas. A total of five (5) scenarios are chosen. Each scenario features a different centering of the whole group of tornadoes while maintaining their direction and relative position to each other. The largest number of statistical categories are included in these scenarios, including structures, population, property value, traffic and employment.

<snip>





<snip>

If the statistics of each of the 50 scenarios are averaged together, the result could be interpreted as an average expectation for a storm of this magnitude moving across the Metroplex. As expected, a higher average impact is encountered if the more developed paths are analyzed as a group.

Average of All Paths

Structures in Path: 20,140
Property in Path: $2.7 Billion
Damages: $1.5 Billion
Residents in Path: 46,770
Single Family Units: 11,800
Multi-Family Units: 7,350
Residential Damages: $1.04 Billion

Average of Paths at Least 50% Developed

Structures in Path: 30,950
Property in Path: $4.5 Billion
Damages: $2.5 Billion
Residents in Path: 69,400
Single Family Units: 15,800
Multi-Family Units: 13,700
Residential Damages: $1.6 Billion

North Central Texas Council of Governments, Summer 2000

More:
http://www.nctcog.org/weather/study/summary/summary.asp

[kestrel91316]

22. How the heck could a Cat 5 hit DALLAS??? Houston, maybe?

[Ian David]

24. Cat 5 Tornado, not hurricane. Does that make more sense? n/t

[Mutley]

25. That would be an F-5.

Tornados run on the Fujita Scale. Scroll down a bit for the chart on the different levels. An F-5 tornado means winds from 261-318 mph, and are often over a mile wide.

[Ian David]

26. Yeah. that's what I meant. Thanks! I'm wrong 1/12 of the time. n/t

[Mutley]

27. LOL. I'm wrong more often than that..

but I've been obsessed with weather longer then I've been obsessed with politics.

[Ian David]

28. 1/12 is an "in joke" old enough that nobody probably gets it anymore

Except me.

Which would make me the only one still "in."

Which would actually make it more like a self-masturbatory joke if I'm the only one amused by it.

[Mutley]

29. Okay.

Is something wrong with telling self-masturbatory jokes? :rofl:

[Ian David]

30. Only if you leave the punchline on someone else's pillow. n/t

[Mutley]

34. Eww!

LMAO!

[Beetwasher]

10. Yeah, Eastern LI, Lower Manhattan and Southern Brooklyn

Would be in the most serious danger from flooding. Depending on the size of the storm, much of these areas could be under water...

[Ian David]

14. The History of Hurricanes in New York

Coastal Storms and Hurricanes: New York City Hurricane History


<snip>

1938 HURRICANE
The most powerful hurricane known to have made landfall nearby — a category 3 hurricane — occurred in 1938. Its eye crossed over Long Island and into New England, killing nearly 200 people


The storm killed 10 people in New York City and caused millions of dollars in damage. Its floods knocked out electrical power in all areas above 59th Street in Manhattan and in all of the Bronx, the new IND subway line lost power, and 100 large trees in Central Park were destroyed.


Waves striking a seawall, 1938 (NWS Historic Collection)

Fortunately, New York City experienced the weaker "left side" of the 1938 hurricane — the City was 75 miles from the eye when it passed over Long Island. The hurricane could have caused far more deaths and damage if it passed closer to the five boroughs.

An excellent history of the 1938 hurricane is provided at Scott Mandia's website: "The Long Island Express: The Great Hurricane of 1938."
http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/

<snip>


GLORIA
The US Army Corps of Engineers has said that 1985's Hurricane Gloria could have been catastrophic if it arrived at high tide and just a little closer to the City.

Many hurricane experts say the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico have begun to spin off more frequent and destructive hurricanes than in previous decades. Tropical storms have been on the rise since 1995, and a record 19 hurricanes made their way into the North Atlantic in 1995.

<snip>


FLOYD
In September 1999, Tropical Storm Floyd brought sustained 60 mph winds and dumped 10-15 inches of rain on upstate New Jersey and New York State over a 24-hour period.

Flash flooding from this tropical storm — one of the most powerful to affect New York City in a decade — forced hundreds of people to leave their homes in counties just outside the five boroughs. Floyd caused New York City’s schools to close for the first time since 1996 and led the city to open emergency storm shelters as a precautionary measure.

More:
http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/html/readynewyork/hazard_hurricane_history.html

[barb162]

19. that's an impressive picture

[Lisa]

16. extratropical storms can be nasty

Particularly for areas which don't get hurricanes often and aren't ready for them. And if it's slow-moving and dumps a lot of water, that can be worse than high winds. Canada has been hit a couple of times, and people just didn't know what to expect. I've been worried about a replay of Hurricane Hazel.

Even the west coast -- we had a very powerful low-pressure system, which they called a "marine bomb", slam into British Columbia a few years back. Hardly anyone saw it coming.

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

20. All we need now are mega blizzards in winter followed by hurricanes

in summer, throughout the southern and eastern United States.

[Name removed]

23. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[JerseygirlCT]

31. I was just talking about this the other day

Can you IMAGINE the nightmare of evacuating Manhattan? Getting around NYC on a random Tuesday afternoon means huge traffic problems. Imagine everyone trying to get out? And so many Manhattanites, quite logically, do not own cars.

Never mind that getting out means getting way out, since the whole area is on the water.

Total nightmare.

[halobeam]

32. I'm on the south shore of Long Island.

The only way out is when a storm passes Cape Hatteras, NC heading north. Take a couple of days off.

I know all the "not everyone can do this, etc"... that is the dangerous part IMO.

My point is the ONLY way out of Long Island is WELL BEFORE you know whether or not it will hit you. That's it. Those who don't, will be stuck on this island.

Sad and scary and freakin' reality. I watched Phillipe very carefully. Some folks that I know didn't even know there was a hurricane out in the ocean. Still, even after Katrina. Completely foolish if you ask me.

I have very little money, believe me, but it is NOT TOUCHED just to get out of here. I will eat pasta ten days in a row, but I won't touch that fund.

This is what people have to realize. These water are warmer, everywhere and will continue to get warmer each year. The intensification of these storms we are seeing is just the beginning of the "new intense super storm".

I feel sorry for the day it happens to NYC and Long Island. Just like in New Orleans, it is/was a matter of when, not if.

[JerseygirlCT]

35. Oh yeah

the island is a nightmare for sure! Same story -- any time of day you can run into impossible traffic. Imagining a disaster situation... well, I don't want to do that.

I grew up on the Jersey shore -- at least we could just head west.

With LI, there's not even enough land to slow one of those monsters down. And the barrier islands are mostly over-developed, too.

You're very smart to keep that fund.

[UncleSepp]

37. Well, those NYers should move! How stupid!

Imagine, building such a city in an area that gets hurricanes sometimes. By the water and everything! How stupid! I hope none of my tax dollars ever go to help them rebuild if they get hit. They chose to live there.