STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 27 July

[ozymandius]

Wednesday July 27, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 178 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 219 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 283 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1340
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 26, 2005

Dow... 10,579.77 -16.71 (-0.16%)
Nasdaq... 2,175.99 +9.25 (+0.43%)
S&P 500... 1,231.16 +2.13 (+0.17%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.24% -0.01 (-0.19%)
Gold future... 425.90 +0.90 ((+0.21%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [email protected]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Ike Iossif - WEEKLY CHARTS

Last week I said, "The McClellan Oscillators are at the zero line, the Volatility ratios are at new highs, the Quantifiers have turned down, and the rest of the indicators have diverged negatively; therefore, the odds are better than even that over the next 2-5 trading days we will get a pullback, but given the magnitude of the initial thrust of the move we also ought to expect support to hold."

(Current) We have half of the indicators implying that a pullback is to be expected next week, while the other half are implying that further price strength ought to be expected. When you put it all together it means that we ought to expect a choppy and difficult market to trade going forward. This type of market condition precedes market tops of significance, but we do not believe that such top is completed; it has a bit more to go. Nevertheless, we do believe that we ought to expect a pullback sometime this week, and depending upon how deep the pullback turns out to be, we will draw further conclusions with regard to how far we are into the topping process.

more... plus many charts to start

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[UpInArms]

2. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 90.22 Change +0.22 (+0.24%)

Dollar Rebounds As China Tries To Manage Speculation

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2451&Itemid=39

US Dollar
The US dollar rallied once again thanks to new attempts by China to downplay their latest currency move. In order to prevent speculation from getting out of hand, the Chinese central bank came out with a statement on its website to clarify recent press coverage pertaining to the comments made by Central Bank Governor Zhou who said a few a days ago that the move by China was an "initial 2% adjustment" and that they will gradually continue to reform the country’s exchange rate system. Today, the People’s Bank of China released a statement that said even though Zhou used the word "initial", it is wrong to think that "an initial move (which) warrants further actions in the future." To them, "gradualism" is key and it appears that China may be trying to convince the markets that gradualism means that changes will be done over the course of months or even years. The market has become so conditioned to analyzing each word that is used or not used by the central banks around the world that Zhou’s comments had the press talking about more moves by China in the near term. The market may have to get use to the fact that the Chinese may not be as careful as Greenspan and the Federal Reserve have been when it comes to their choice of words and they reserve the right to retract them, like they have done in the past. Yet once again, we caution against completely writing off future moves by China. The Chinese have a history of surprising us by moving faster than expected. Their latest statement may be nothing more than an attempt to manage expectations and speculation. The only piece of economic data released today was the Conference Board‘s consumer confidence report which fell from 106.2 to 103.2 in July. Both the present conditions component and the expectations component fell, which could be partially attributed to the recent attacks in London as well as the spike in oil prices.

...more...

Tomorrow's Economic Release Alerts: U.S. Durable Goods Orders Look To Retrace

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2458&Itemid=39

US Durable Goods Orders (JUN) (12:30 GMT, 8:30 EDT)

Headline
Consensus: -1.0%
Previous: 5.5%

Ex-Transportation
Consensus: 1.0%
Previous: -0.3%

Outlook: For the month of June, it’s no surprise that economists are expecting a retrenchment to -1.0% after last month’s 5.5% surprise on transportation orders. With a return to a more stable level of order volume in aviation, the monthly change against last month’s number will likely be quite negative. There are, of course, risks to this assessment. Since the Paris Air Show actually occurred in early June, Boeing saw a large number of orders last month as well. Although the number is lower than the 200 seen in May, it’s still rather high at 162. Meanwhile, the Fed recently reported a 2.9% jump in automobile and parts output in June. Excluding the transportation sector, new orders of durable goods is expected to have grown 1.0% in the month. Investment in equipment and software will probably remain high though receding slightly from first quarter numbers. According to economists, core capital goods (excluding defense and aircraft) should’ve seen a larger increase this month as businesses cut back in May in order to use up existing stockpiles.

Previous: Total durable goods orders were up 5.5% in May, 4 percentage points higher than the forecast of 1.5%. Almost the entire increase was due to the 200 orders for aircraft received by Boeing after last week’s Paris Air Show. Nondefense aircraft and parts rose 164.8% between April and May and this contributed to a total increase in transportation orders of 21.2% over the month. Excluding transportation, the change in new orders for durable goods thins to a drop of 0.2%. Going further into the core activity, things just keep getting worse as the figure drops further once defense-related orders are removed. Despite the blockbuster headline number, the report didn’t actually bring good news for the economy. The details show that business investment is really slowing since the growth in orders of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft was -2.3% while shipments only grew 0.2% compared to 1.4% in April. Buying has slowed down since durable goods inventories are at close to a two-year high when adjusted for the current rate of sales signaling that the business investment portion of second quarter GDP could be lower.

...more...

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

6. U.S. rate expectations rule as euro slides

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=2005-07-27T112941Z_01_EDW734493_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-GLOBAL-WRAPUP-3.XML

LONDON, July 27 (Reuters) - U.S. interest rate expectations dominated financial markets on Wednesday before key economic data, with a slide in the euro towards 14-month lows against the dollar giving support to European stocks and government bonds.

But few investors were taking big positions before the U.S. durable goods data, due at 1230 GMT.

A strong number would reinforce expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to four percent from 3.25 percent by the year end and perhaps further in 2006 -- widening the rate differential with Europe. The European Central Bank is seen holding rates steady throughout 2005.

<snip>

Meanwhile Japanese government bond prices hit one-month lows as Tokyo's Nikkei share index rallied 0.83 percent and nervousness grew that the end of the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy might be getting closer.

...more at link...

[UpInArms]

13. Dollar drifts ahead of durables data

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BD06982F2%2D577E%2D4348%2DAEE8%2D31B5304437BB%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - The dollar churned modestly higher against its major counterparts Wednesday as currency traders awaited the release of a report on the U.S. factory sector.

Orders for new durable goods are expected to fall 0.9% in June after a wild 5.5% gain in May, which was fueled by a year's worth of aircraft orders at Boeing Co.

A weak report may cool expectations for interest-rate hikes out on the horizon but is unlikely to dispel widespread expectations for a tenth consecutive rate hike when the Federal Reserve meets in August. Higher U.S. rates beef up demand for dollar-based assets from abroad.

...more...

[UpInArms]

16. Dollar lifted by upside surprise in U.S. factory data

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38560.3610278125-839157684&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- The dollar extended gains in the wake of an upside surprise in a measure of U.S. factory activity. The dollar was quoted at 112.74 yen, up from 112.65 yen ahead of the report, and up 0.3% from where it stood late Tuesday. The euro was changing hands at $1.1975 vs. $1.1989 before the report. The dollar is 0.4% higher vs. the euro on the day. Led by demand for computers, orders for new U.S.-made durable goods increased 1.4% in June, the third straight strong monthly increase. Economists were expecting orders to fall 0.9%.

[UpInArms]

30. Dollar reverses early gains

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38560.4302663079-839162769&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- The dollar traded marginally lower against its major counterparts, having reversed earlier strength when upbeat U.S. economic data produced enough of a gain for the greenback and subsequent decline for the euro to kick in a wave euro-dollar buying by some large funds, currency traders said. The dollar was last down 0.1% against Europe's shared currency, with the euro fetching $1.2036. The dollar slipped 0.1% to 112.30 yen.

I guess someone examined the cooked reports.

[UpInArms]

3. Today's Reports:

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

Jul 27	8:30 AM		Durable Orders		Jun	-	0.0%	-1.0%	5.5%	-	
Jul 27	10:00 AM	New Home Sales		Jun	-	1280K	1300K	1298K	-	
Jul 27	2:00 PM		Fed's Beige Book	-	-	-	-	-	-

[UpInArms]

15. U.S. June durable-goods orders up 1.4% beating forecast (???)

(I guess the military is buying new computers)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={8CD72670-336A-45D3-9093-74BD383FA3A6}&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Led by demand for computers, orders for new U.S.-made durable goods increased 1.4% in June, the third straight strong monthly increase. Economists were expecting orders to fall 0.9%. Adding to the strength, durable orders in May were revised to a 6.4% increase from 5.5% previously estimated. This is the strongest monthly increase since July 2002. Shipments of durable goods slipped 0.1% in June after three straight monthly increases. Inventories fell 0.3% in June. Orders for core capital goods equipment fell 24.2% in June after rising 23.6% in May.

8:30am 07/27/05 U.S. JUNE DURABLE-GOODS INVENTORIES DOWN 0.3%

8:30am 07/27/05 U.S. JUNE DURABLE-GOODS SHIPMENTS DOWN 0.1%

8:30am 07/27/05 U.S. MAY DURABLE-GOODS ORDERS REV UP 6.4% VS 5.5% PREV

8:30am 07/27/05 U.S. JUNE DURABLE-GOODS ORDERS ABOVE FALL 0.9% FORECAST

8:30am 07/27/05 U.S. JUNE DURABLE-GOODS ORDERS UP 1.4%

editing to add the "correction"(?)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38560.3643324884-839157870&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

(Correcting non-defense capital goods to 3.8% rise in June after 0.6% fall in May) WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Led by demand for computers, orders for new U.S.-made durable goods increased 1.4% in June, the third straight strong monthly increase. Economists were expecting orders to fall 0.9%. Adding to the strength, durable orders in May were revised to a 6.4% increase from 5.5% previously estimated. This is the strongest monthly increase since July 2002. Shipments of durable goods slipped 0.1% in June after three straight monthly increases. Inventories fell 0.3% in June. Orders for core capital goods equipment rose 3.8% in June after falling 0.6% in May.

Will follow-up with the actual report when I find it.

[UpInArms]

18. link to report - all those orders were DEFENSE RELATED

http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/

excerpt:

Capital Goods Industries
Nondefense
Nondefense new orders for capital goods in June decreased $1.5 billion or 1.9 percent to $80.3 billion.

Defense
Defense new orders for capital goods in June increased $1.2 billion or 16.9 percent to $8.5 billion.

...more at link...

As I suspected - it's all military spending based upon debt because this country has no freaking money - just "worthless IOUs" like the ones held by the SS Trust Fund.

[54anickel]

23. 16.9%!!!!! Holy Sh*t - can you say military industrial complex?

[punpirate]

50. The same can be likely be said of exports...

... since much of that production then goes overseas, mostly to Iraq, these days.

And the prospects for that are not good. The Council on Economic Priorities did a long study of the relationship of military expansion to the economy in 1983, and predicted economic decline from that policy. And that study used data from before the huge military build-up years in Reagan's term....

Cheers.

[UpInArms]

26. Seasonally Adjusted Homes Sales record "jump" (hahahahaha)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38560.4167985648-839161770&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. new home sales jumped by 4.0% in June to a record 1.37 million seasonally adjusted annual rate, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday. June sales smashed the previous record of 1.32 million set last month. Economists expected sales to inch lower to 1.29 million from the initial May estimate of 1.30 mln units. The inventory of unsold homes on the market rose by 2.5% to a record 454,000, but represents a 4.0-month supply at the strong June sales pace. This is down from a 4.1-month supply in May. The median price of a new home fell 5.5% in June to $214,800 from the previous month. The median price is down 0.4% in the past year.

10:00am 07/27/05 U.S. JUNE NEW HOME SALES PRICE DOWN 0.4% Y-0-Y TO $215K

10:00am 07/27/05 U.S. MAY NEW HOME SALES REVISED TO 1.32 MLN VS 1.30 MLN

10:00am 07/27/05 U.S. JUNE NEW HOME SALES ABOVE 1.29 MLN UNIT FORECAST

10:00am 07/27/05 U.S. JUNE NEW HOME SALES UP 4% TO RECORD 1.37 MLN UNITS

[UpInArms]

34. DOE petroleum inventory report

10:31am 07/27/05 U.S. CRUDE STKS DOWN 2.3 MLN BRLS LAST WK: ENERGY DEPT

10:31am 07/27/05 U.S. GASOLINE STKS DOWN 2.1 MLN BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

10:31am 07/27/05 U.S. DISTILLATE STKS UP 3.1 MLN BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

We'll see if the API looks anything like this :eyes:

Don't know who is more accurate - they both seem to be so far apart on a weekly basis, how can anyone tell what is what?

[UpInArms]

4. Weaker refinancings drag on mortgage applications

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38560.2981546412-839152618&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- With mortgage rates flat to higher, the volume of applications filed for mortgages fell 5.8% in the week ended July 22 compared to the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Also on a seasonally adjusted basis, applications for mortgages to buy homes eased 0.7%, while refinancing applications plunged 11.4%. Accordingly, refinancings accounted for 42.9% of last week's total applications, down from 45.7% a week earlier, while adjustable-rate mortgages rose to 29.4% from 28.5%. The average contract interest rate on 30-year fixed-mortgages held steady at 5.72% on a week-to-week basis, while 15-year mortgages rose to 5.32% from 5.28%. One-year ARMs averaged 4.70% last week, up from 4.63% a week earlier. Overall, the pace of mortgage applications slowed by 1.3% as measured on a four-week moving average, the MBA's data showed.

[UpInArms]

5. Ex-WorldCom CFO Sullivan, two others in settlement

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-07-27T050413Z_01_N26686009_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESS-TELECOMS-WORLDCOM-SETTLEMENT-DC.XML

NEW YORK (Reuters) - WorldCom Inc. former Chief Financial Officer Scott Sullivan will have to give up a Florida mansion as part of a financial settlement with investors stemming from the collapse of the telecommunications company, the plaintiff in the case said on Tuesday.

Sullivan, former controller David Myers and ex-accounting director Buford Yates have agreed to settle a class-action suit with stock and bond holders, according to a memorandum from Manhattan federal judge Denise Cote on Monday.

Myers and Yates were judged unable to pay anything to the class, but Sullivan will have to sell his 10-bedroom, lakefront mansion under construction in Boca Raton, Florida, and give up his WorldCom 401 (k), according to a statement from New York State Comptroller Alan Hevesi, who serves as lead plaintiff in the case.

The home is being offered for $10.9 million, and WorldCom investors were expected to recoup about $5 million from that sale, after the payment of liens. The 401 (k) account is worth an additional $200,000.

...more...

:nopity:

Cry me a river.

[UpInArms]

7. U.S. Energy Industry's Lobbying Pays Off With $11.6 Bln in Aid

Talk about WELFARE QUEENS! These sorry SOBs are driving Ferraris!

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=agbeVimf04Ec&refer=us

July 27 (Bloomberg) -- Oil and utility companies such as Exxon Mobil Corp. and Southern Co. spent $367 million over the last two years pushing the U.S. Congress to pass energy legislation. For many, the money was a good investment: lawmakers are poised to pass a measure providing about $11.6 billion in taxpayer subsidies.

House and Senate negotiators approved compromise legislation yesterday and President George W. Bush, who has been seeking an energy bill since the start of his first term, will have it on his desk by July 29, Senator Charles Grassley said. Supporters said the measure, the Energy Policy Act, would help secure energy supplies and ultimately lead to lower fuel prices.

The legislation includes subsidies for oil and gas exploration that benefit companies such as Irving, Texas-based Exxon Mobil, which contributed $935,266 to federal candidates for the 2004 elections, more than any other oil company. Southern, which contributed $1.1 million to candidates in 2004, more than any other utility, won repeal of a 1935 law prohibiting utility holding companies from using revenue from customers to subsidize non-regulated businesses.

<snip>

Chevron, the second-largest U.S. oil company, contributed $498,992 for the 2004 elections. Exxon Mobil, the world's biggest publicly traded oil company; San Ramon, California-based Chevron and Atlanta-based Southern each contributed the maximum $250,000 to Bush's 2005 inaugural committee.

In negotiating the final measure, lawmakers rejected an increase in fuel-economy standards for automobiles and a requirement that utilities generate 10 percent of their electricity through renewable sources of energy such as solar or wind. Bush said in April that the legislation wouldn't have an immediate effect on gasoline prices, which yesterday averaged $2.28 for a gallon of unleaded, close to the record of $2.32 a gallon set July 14, according to the AAA, the former American Automobile Association.

...more...

Record freaking profits, no regulation and sucking off the last drops of blood from the diminishing middle class while feeding from the carcass of the poor.

:argh:

[UpInArms]

36. Presstitues just noticing the cost of the Energy Bill (stupid idjits)

10:37am 07/27/05 COST OF ENERGY TAX PROPOSAL $11.5B WITH REVENUE RAISERS

10:35am 07/27/05 SENATE ENERGY PROPOSAL HOLDS $14.6B IN TAX INCENTIVES

[54anickel]

40. ..

[UpInArms]

8. Editorial layoffs hit Wired News

http://news.com.com/Editorial+layoffs+hit+Wired+News/2100-1025_3-5805667.html

Lycos has cut back the editorial staff at Wired News as part of a restructuring of the online media company's Web sites.

The layoffs, announced to employees on Monday, leave the iconic technology Web site Wired.com with no employees bearing the title "staff writer." In all, three reporters, an unknown number of production employees and two business-side people lost their jobs. The two remaining staff writers had their titles changed to editor.

The shakeup comes almost a year after Daum Communications, a large South Korean Web firm, bought Lycos for $95 million. Lycos' other U.S. operations include stock market site Quote.com and Tripod user-created Web sites.

Evan Hansen, Wired News editor in chief and a former editor at CNET News.com, said in an e-mailed statement that some management and publishing functions have been "consolidated" from San Francisco to Lycos' offices in Waltham, Mass. "In addition, some editorial positions have been eliminated and others reassigned," Hansen said. "These cost management measures are expected to improve our bottom line without impacting daily Web site operations."

...more...

Fewer voices, more consolidation of our media into foreign lands.

[UpInArms]

9. Iomega plans more layoffs

http://www2.standard.net/standard/business/57304/

ROY -- Iomega Corp. Tuesday announced plans to lay off 120 employees, including 68 in Roy.

Iomega, a manufacturer of data storage devices, including the once-popular Zip drive and discs, has about 250 employees in customer service, research and development at its 16-acre campus along 1900 West in Roy.

The layoffs, to affect 30 percent of the company's employees worldwide, are part of a restructuring plan aimed at streamlining its business strategy and aligning its expenses with expected revenues, according to a news release.

<snip>

Iomega once employed about 750 at the Roy campus, its headquarters until 2001, when they were moved to San Diego.

...more at link...

[UpInArms]

10. DIARY-U.S. Treasuries, Wednesday, July 27

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-07-27T111733Z_01_N27262201_RTRIDST_0_DIARY-U-S-TREASURIES.XML

ECONOMIC INDICATORS:

The Mortgage Bankers Association released its Weekly Mortgage Market Index for the week ended July 22 at 7 a.m. (1100 GMT.) The headline mortgage market index fell 5.8 percent to 754.3 and the refinancing index fell 11.4 percent to 2,320.3.

Commerce Department releases June durable goods orders, 8:30 a.m. (1230 GMT). Economists in a Reuters survey expect a median decline in orders of 1.0 percent compared with a 5.5 increase in May durable goods orders.

Commerce Department releases new home sales for June, 10 a.m. (1400 GMT). Economists in a Reuters survey forecast a median total of 1.300 million annualized units compared with May figure of 1.298 million.

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City releases July manufacturing survey, 11 a.m. (1500 GMT). In the prior month, the survey read 19.

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago releases its Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index for June, 12 p.m. (1600 GMT). The index read 118.4 in the prior month.

Fed releases Beige Book of regional economic conditions, 2 p.m. (1800 GMT).

Commerce Department releases revised building permits for June, no set time. The current June building permits figure is 2.111 million.

...more at link...

[UpInArms]

11. Ex-Qwest exec to pay $2.1 mln to settle SEC charges

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=governmentFilingsNews&storyID=URI:urn:newsml:reuters.com:20050726:MTFH94366_2005-07-26_19-07-01_N26531670:1

WASHINGTON, July 26 (Reuters) - A former executive of Qwest Communications International Inc. (Q.N: Quote, Profile, Research) agreed to pay $2.1 million to settle civil fraud charges, securities regulators said on Tuesday.

According to the statement by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, former Executive Vice President Gregory Casey was part of a scheme to artificially inflate the company's revenue and earnings.

The SEC alleged that Casey provided, or knew others had provided, side agreements to certain customers allowing the company to inappropriately book revenue.

Casey also allegedly altered documents to trigger early revenue recognition.

Casey is now cooperating with the investigation, SEC Assistant Regional Director for Enforcement Mary Brady said on Tuesday.

<snip>

The Denver-based phone company allegedly reported about $3 billion in fraudulent revenue while excluding $231 million in expenses, the lawsuits said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

12. Treasurys little changed ahead of durables data

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38560.3507975926-839156849&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- The benchmark 10-year Treasury was up 1/32, leaving its yield ($TNX) a virtually unchanged at 4.23% ahead of the latest read on demand for big-ticket items. Orders for new durable goods are expected to fall 0.9% in June after a wild 5.5% gain in May, which was fueled by a year's worth of aircraft orders at Boeing Co.

Isn't it interesting that last month when they reported that HUGE surge in aircraft orders, they failed to mention that it was a year's worth of aircraft orders at Boeing Co?

[UpInArms]

17. Treasurys reverse to trade lower after durables data

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38560.3621039699-839157749&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Slim Treasury gmarket gains turned to modest losses after the release of U.S. factory statistics. Led by demand for computers, orders for new U.S.-made durable goods increased 1.4% in June, the third straight strong monthly increase. Economists were expecting orders to fall 0.9%. The benchmark 10-year note was last 2/32 lower at 99 3/32. The small drop in price nudged its yield ($TNX) up to 4.24%.

[UpInArms]

31. Treasurys remain lower after strong housing report

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38560.4268825463-839162501&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- The benchmark 10-year Treasury note, already weakened by a surprisingly strong durable goods orders report, remained lower after a second report showed sales of new homes in the United States hit a record in June. The 10-year note was last 7/32 lower at 98 30/32, yielding ($TNX) 4.26% vs. 4.23% Tuesday.

Was it because that was a "seasonally adjusted" report that showed that the inventory INCREASED??

[UpInArms]

14. Activcard to cut 13% of work force

8:32am 07/27/05 ACTIVCARD TO CUT 13% OF WORK FORCE

8:33am 07/27/05 ACTIVCARD RESTRUCTURING TO SAVE $11M A YEAR

8:33am 07/27/05 ACTIVCARD RESTRUCTURING TO SAVE $11M A YEAR

and what/who is Activcard?

Activcard Corp

located in Fremont, California

Activcard Corporation. The Group's principal activity is to develop, market and support strong authentication and trusted digital identity systems and products that enable customers to issue, use and maintain digital identities in a secure, manageable and reliable manner. It's systems and products include software and hardware products such as smart card, token, biometric device, mobile phone or personal digital assistant. It also supports a broad range of authentication methods including passwords, public key infrastructure, remote network-access login, biometrics, multi-function smart cards and multi-function smart cards with picture identification, which is used for physical access. On 21-Dec-2004, the Group acquired remaining 51% interest inASPACE Solutions Limited.

[UpInArms]

19. Diebold, Inc. 'clearly disappointed' with earnings

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38560.3672145139-839158137&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Diebold, Inc . (DBD) on Wednesday reported second-quarter net income of $33.3 million, or 47 cents a share, down 24% from $43.6 million, or 60 cents a share in the year-ago period. Revenue rose to $629 million, up 15% from $546 million. Excluding the impact of restructuring charges and European startup costs and related issues, earnings would have been 54 cents a share. A survey of analysts by Thomson First Call forecast earnings of 55 cents a share and revenue of $605 million. Diebold said it was "clearly disappointed" with its results. The company predicted third-quarter earnings of 62-67 cents a share, excluding items. Shares fell 64 cents to $47.55 on Tuesday.

I hope "I will work to deliver Ohio's electoral votes" Odell will soon be on the streets with a tincup.

[Roland99]

22. Awww....I'm a cryin' over here

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[UpInArms]

20. GMAC to sell Mortgage Biz - only profitable group it has

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38560.3863462731-839159684&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- GMAC Financial Services, the financing arm of General Motors (GM) said results for the first half of 2005 have been better than expected and that it is on track to exceed its earnings target of $2.5 billion. The company said improved earnings from its mortgage and insurance businesses is anticipated to offset declines in its financing operations, which has been hurt by lower net interest margins. GMAC said it was close to an agreement to sell most of its commercial mortgage business to a group of private investors. Shares of General Motors, a component of the Dow industrials, closed Tuesday up $1.09 at $36.96.

[UpInArms]

25. Bank Of America Buys GMAC Loans

http://www.forbes.com/work/2005/07/26/auto-loans-gmac-bank-america_cx_lm_0726gmac.html

NEW YORK - Stuck with a junk bond rating that is crimping its business, General Motors' financing division on Tuesday disclosed a deal to sell some $55 billion of auto loans to Bank of America

The deal, which will be played out over five years, still fails to answer analysts' questions about the direction in which GMAC is headed. The financing arm is the most profitable part of General Motors (nyse: GM - news - people ), contributing about 80% of net income last year, but the debt downgrade has weighed on its near-term prospects.

GMAC executives are scheduled to talk about the state of their business in a conference call Wednesday morning. Many analysts continue to look down the road and see either a partial spinoff or a sale of the business, which could free up capital for GM to invest in its struggling North America vehicle division.

Executives from the company have talked about figuring out a way to get GMAC a separate (presumably higher) credit rating. "They are still looking at their strategic options," said Brian Johnson, an auto industry analyst at Sanford Bernstein. Tuesday's deal "does bring B of A to the table as a possible buyer" in any future deal, he added.

...more...

[54anickel]

32. Can you remember what it was like before interstate banking and all

the other banking deregulation? I read this article and I am just floored by what the banking system has become. Sheesh, no wonder the days of a free toaster for opening a savings account are gone.

For Bank of America, the deal represents another chance to add loans to an asset-starved balance sheet. The Charlotte-based bank has been buying consumer loan operations so it has a place to put the deposits it gathers to work. At $55 billion over five years, Bank of America will be buying about 20% of the loans GMAC originates each year.

Last month, Bank of America struck a deal to buy the largest credit card lender, MBNA (nyse: KRB - news - people ), for $35 billion. In March, it agreed to buy $990 million in car loans from Cleveland's KeyCorp (nyse: KEY - news - people ).

Credit card and auto loans are attractive for their high interest rates, which create wide spreads against consumer deposits, reaping profits for the bank, says Punk Ziegel analyst Richard Bove. "Bank of America needs to find assets, and the MBNA deal and this portfolio increases their ability to add high-yielding loans. That's a good deal."

[UpInArms]

35. when thinking of banking,

I always have to remember that deposits are liabilities and loans are assets.

That is why they have to continue to get more and more risky loans on their books.

With deregulation, they can pretty much do that in whatever way they want to.

:eyes:

Kinda reminds me of the loan-sharks of old. Get 'em gambling, get 'em addicted, break their legs.

[54anickel]

42. Next generation learning our bad spending habits

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/3283763

snip past the cute little anecdote>

Instant gratification
Last year, among U.S. households that have credit cards, the average total debt was $9,300, according to Cardweb.com. At the same time, the household savings rate is essentially zero and has been for several years.

Even if we're not spendthrifts, even if we try to be responsible about credit, we often are too busy to run our children to the bank, let them deposit a percentage of their earnings and retain a reasonable amount of spending money.

With our frantic schedules, it's easier to pick up what they were intending to buy and allow them to pay us back. For the sake of convenience, we unwittingly reinforce the credit card mentality.

As a society, we are losing the ability, the self-discipline, to wait. The promise of easy credit and zero-down means instant gratification. Thanks to the Internet, we're waiting in fewer lines — at banks, at movie theaters, at airports. Web sites offer sales that end at midnight, or free shipping if you order before 9 p.m.


Impulse shopping

more...

[UpInArms]

21. pre-opening blather

09:15 ET S&P futures vs fair value: +2.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.0. Futures market off its best levels of the morning but still indicate a higher open for the cash market, as investors have digested yet another impressive economic report and the majority of this morning's earnings reports have exceeded analysts' estimates, lending further evidence that Q2 earnings growth could check in closer to 10% versus previous forecasts of 7-8%

09:00 ET S&P futures vs fair value: +3.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.5. Still shaping up for the cash market to open on an upbeat note as futures indications continue to trade above fair value... Aside from the unexpected increase in durable orders providing an additional level of strength for stocks, a constant stream of solid earnings reports (i.e. FON, COP, NSC and HCA) continues to underpin a positive tone to early trading

8:33AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.0. Futures trade gets a boost following stronger than expected economic data, still suggesting a modestly higher open for the indices... June durable orders rose 1.4%, above economists' forecasts which called for a 1.0% decline, following an upwardly revised 6.4% increase a month earlier (from +5.5%), while ex-transportation rose 2.6%... Bonds, which were up slightly ahead of the data have turned negative, as the 10-year note (-3/32) now yields 4.23%

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.0. Futures market versus fair value suggesting a slightly higher open for the cash market as investors sift through another batch of earnings results ahead of economic data... Providing some early support for stocks have been better than expected earnings from Amazon (AMZN) and Sun Microsystems (SUNW) - out last night - and Boeing (BA), which has handily beaten analysts' Q2 forecasts by $0.18 and raised its FY05 EPS outlook this morning... At 8:30 ET, June durable orders (consensus -1.0%) will be released

[UpInArms]

24. 9:35 EST casino is open

Dow 10,616.94 +37.17 (+0.35%)
Nasdaq 2,178.78 +2.79 (+0.13%)
S&P 500 1,233.91 +2.75 (+0.22%)
10-Yr Bond 4.258 +0.19 (+0.45%)

NYSE Volume 43,341,000
Nasdaq Volume 79,364,000

[54anickel]

27. CAN AMERICANS COMPETE?

http://www.fortune.com/fortune/articles/0,15114,1081269-1,00.html

snip>

McKinsey figures that about 4.1 million service jobs will actually get offshored from high-wage countries to low-wage countries by 2008. It doesn’t make a forecast for U.S. jobs, but others have done so. Forrester Research puts the number at 3.4 million white-collar jobs by 2015. Researchers at the University of California at Berkeley believe the number will be far larger, perhaps 14 million.

Even those numbers could be too low, because they’re based on surveys of company plans today and extrapolations of current trends—always iffy predictors. Professor Thomas H. Davenport of Babson College believes that outsourcing is about to become radically easier and more widespread for a seemingly mundane reason. Davenport sees industry groups and professional associations rapidly standardizing processes like purchasing and billing, making them easy to measure and assess. When that happens, he says, "the low costs and low risks of outsourcing will accelerate the flow of jobs offshore."

The downward pressure on U.S. wages could be more immediate and severe than you might imagine. It is tempting to suppose that the giant U.S. economy couldn’t have felt much strain yet; the total number of offshored white-collar jobs is probably fewer than a million so far. But it doesn’t take the shifting of many jobs to produce ripple effects through the whole economy.

Why? Most U.S. workers whose jobs are sent overseas will try to find new ones, perhaps in other industries or occupations. So the offshoring of any jobs will produce job seekers who will tend to push wages down even in industries in which outsourcing isn’t happening. Far more significantly, the mere threat of moving jobs offshore is enough to hold wages down—those growing armies of skilled workers around the world are increasing the labor supply in many occupations, and the immutable law of markets is that when supply goes up, prices come down. It has happened in all kinds of other markets—food, clothing, microchips, appliances. Why not in labor?

Some economists believe they see it happening already. They note that something extremely odd occurred in the U.S. economy last year: Average compensation, including pay and benefits, fell. That is a rare event; the last time it happened was 14 years ago. More important, it usually happens in or around recessions or when productivity is going nowhere. But last year wasn’t like that. Productivity rose. The economy grew. The unemployment rate was low and falling. Every indicator pointed to strong wage increases, but just the opposite happened. Now some of the nation’s most eminent economists, including professor Richard B. Freeman of Harvard and Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley, believe the supply of overseas workers in newly globalizing labor markets is holding U.S. pay down and will do so for years.

lots more...

[UpInArms]

29. Thanks 54anickel!

That is a rare event; the last time it happened was 14 years ago. More important, it usually happens in or around recessions or when productivity is going nowhere. But last year wasn’t like that. Productivity rose. The economy grew. The unemployment rate was low and falling.

The only part of the books that they couldn't cook was wages. They FELL.

All other books are cooked - they are freakin' turkeys.

Someday the lemmings will wake up - perhaps on their way to the oven.

[54anickel]

37. Its an interesting "piece" (of propaganda?) Not sure what to make of

it as it raises interesting points, but it also lays much of the responsibility of getting us out of this mess on the working class, pushing for some sort of education reform, changes in immigration laws and defending H1-B visas and the "free-trade agreements". To be fair it does also call for corporations to start spending on R&D (wasn't that what the Job Creation Act was suppose to contribute to?)

It barely touches on how we got "here". "Here" being the midst of the largest transfer of wealth to the upper class since the robber baron days. There's just a touch of it at the very end.

My question is if free-trade was suppose to create that "rising tide that lifts all boats" - WTF happened?

My theory - greed begets greed and all that profit taking and pocket lining finally got out of hand. The corporatists got "too" greedy and went for the all the money. Perhaps their mistake was letting CEO types that didn't understand the game into the club. They didn't leave enough crumbs to keep the public fat and happy and docile. Now they've got to convince us it's our fault, ease us into accepting the responsibility to again pick Murika up by the boot-straps and start all over. If we knew the truth there would be riots in the streets.

Here are the final paragraphs:

History says the rise of China, India, and other developing economies could someday lead to a new equilibrium that’s better for everyone. With resources deployed globally to their best use, prices could come down and living standards could eventually increase everywhere. After all, America’s rise didn’t impoverish Europe. On the contrary, the success of each continent helped the other get richer.

What happens next in the U.S. depends on how workers respond. Trilogy CEO Joe Liemandt recalls what happened when he told programmers he wouldn’t need them as programmers anymore: "We told them they could react in one of three ways. They could get really pissed, they could be in denial, or they could work with us to retool their skills. And we had people in each group."

It’s time for a massive, urgent American response to the global challenge. As Cisco chief John Chambers says flatly, "We are not competitive." Where to start? Venture capitalist John Doerr, one of America’s most passionate competitiveness campaigners, calls education "the largest and most screwed-up part of the American economy." He’d start there. GE chief Jeff Immelt has attacked America’s newly restrictive student visa rules. Others focus first on R&D spending or the broadband infrastructure. But the greatest challenge will be changing a culture that neither values education nor sacrifices the present for the future as much as it used to—or as much as our competitors do. And you’d better believe that American business has a role to play—after years of dot-com-bust- and scandal-driven reticence, more corporate leaders need to summon the courage to lead.

While optimism has always been the best guide to predicting the U.S. economy, today’s situation is unprecedented. Global product markets have been with us forever and continue to expand. Global capital markets are still developing—watch out, Unocal and Maytag. But global labor markets on a broad scale are a new phenomenon that could, for better or worse, transform the country. How we respond—in our businesses, our government, and our culture—will shape America in the deepest way.

[KoKo]

39. Something about this article in Fortune bothers me.

I can't put my finger on it but it seems to leave out more than it says about our economy.

One part I had a problem with was the "restructuring in the 90's where the middle managers were let go." The article says these people all found jobs elsewhere as the tech revolution scapped them up. Having gone through the Middle Manager downsizing I can't agree with what this article says. First of all the "Middle Managers" were the group that facilitated between the Upper Management and the newly hired workers. When they were eliminated that allowed the CEO/CFO's to make more money as we've seen with the astronomical increase in top managements salaries during the 90's until now.

Eliminating the "buffer" of the Middle Manager created a top down structure where new hires didn't really have mentors to train them and oversee their development. (Could this have had something to do with the financial scandals we've been seeing where innocent workers somehow got involved in scams and accounting scandals?) The demise of the "Middle Manager" disrupted what had been a system that worked well for decades. Not all "MM's" were in the tech fields who could easily start a new company or find a job. Many were in pharmaceutical, manufacturing and the banking industries. Retraining into a totally different field was impossible for many and they had to take low paying jobs or live on "buy outs" if they were in their late 40's even having to take early retirement in many cases.

I don't know...that's just my experience. That the article wanders and really doesn't get to the depth of what's been going on with the Mergers & Acquisitions, Buyouts which caused major disruptions in our countries economy and in the end only put money in the CEO/CFO/COO's pockets. The greedy corporate managers playing their games, to me, caused much of what we are seeing. The policy of allowing the same Board Members to sit on multiple boards with special interests was another factor. The small pool of Board of Directors caused conflicts of interest and even though that was supposed to be regulated, I don't think it was. Certainly Cox is going to make sure any reforms that were done under Donaldson are eliminated. :-(

The education factor was the best in this article, though. We are doing nothing to foster education when we have a President who is a "creationist" who never reads a newspaper. We have allowed our Televisions to just put crap on when there could be so many shows that could help teach our kids new skills. I grew up with some great science shows like "Mr. Wizard," etc. There's nothing like that on these days. Very few shows that involve and engage young minds. We should have built on Sesame Street and expanded the concept.

Oh well...this is a rant....sorry to barge in here with this. The article is very interesting. Who knows if it will start a discussion out there. Hopefully so...

:rant:

[UpInArms]

47. great and informative rant, Koko!

Barge in anytime!

:pals:

:hi:

(similar experience in MM here)

[punpirate]

54. All this talk of business leaders demanding educational reform...

... gives me the bends. Business has consistently sought tax relief from Congress and the state legislatures and pursued tax avoidance (and sometimes tax evasion) as a means to profitability.

If one looks at corporate taxes as a percentage of total federal tax revenues, their share of total tax revenues has been dropping steadily for the last thirty years (from about a third to less than 8%). State taxes depend upon federal returns, in most cases, so that means business has been paying less and less into the systems that fund public education--and that lack is particularly noticeable in higher education, and is directly linked to rapidly increasing rates of tuition and fees and a diminishing student base.

Beyond that, big business' plans for education frequently attempt to tailor higher education to its needs--greater specialization and technical emphasis--rather than broadly educating people who have good technical skills and civic, cultural and political awareness. That's a perfect employee, but not a perfect citizen.

Cheers.

[54anickel]

28. Greenspan Hints at Risk-Free Trade in Treasuries

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_gilbert&sid=auN0mdUcgWoc

July 27 (Bloomberg) -- It's not often Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan hints at a risk-free profit opportunity in the bond market. The central bank chief's remarks last week about monetary policy, the economy and the yield curve can be interpreted as signaling the kind of trade that used to be called a no-brainer when low-hanging fruit seemed easier to pick.

Greenspan said that sustaining growth and keeping inflation subdued ``will require the Federal Reserve to continue to remove monetary accommodation.'' With the U.S. central bank driving up its key lending rate at every meeting, two-year yields look set to climb in tandem, driving down their prices. At the same time, 10- year bond values are likely to gain as higher borrowing costs restrain future consumer-price increases.

That's boosting the likelihood that two-year yields will be driven higher than those on 10-year bonds, producing what's called an inverted yield curve in the U.S. bond market.

It's hard to draw any other conclusion from Greenspan's remarks. He repeated the Fed's mantra that rates may rise ``at a pace that's likely to be measured,'' suggesting that the nine consecutive increases since June 2004 that have driven the overnight lending rate to 3.25 percent are far from being the last.

snip>

In years past, central bank chiefs would have been expected to intervene to prevent an inverted yield curve. When investors are willing to lend long-dated money at cheaper rates than they demand on shorter-dated securities, it's typically a signal that they see recession around the corner.

This Time It's Different :eyes:

more...

[UpInArms]

33. The Has-Been Partisan Hack is now selling more snake oil

like his "every one should have an Adjustable Rate Mortgage" speech - whatever he's selling - I'm not buying.

:banghead:

:puke:

[54anickel]

38. What ever he pushes is usually to bail the gov't out of some mess,

it's just not necessarily in the individual's best interest. That push for ARMs was to cool the GSE portfolios.

I would imagine this is to create domestic demand in Treasuries to pick up the slack we are going to start to see as China and her neighbors begin to re-adjust their holdings to the basket.

How'd that little diddie go again....

A tisket, a tasket
World reserves's gonna be a basket.
We had the world held by a string
On the way to war Shrub dropped it....

Can't remember the rest.

[54anickel]

46. A Snowball in the Making: China's Basket of Currencies

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=218

snip>

Greenspan appears to be a victim of the same lack of modesty as all central bankers throughout history have been. Every generation of central bankers seems to believe that they have not only learned from the mistakes of the past, but also imply that no new mistakes will be made. During World War I, the German Reichsbank's central bankers -- all educated men --, believed financing a war is 'exogenous' and non-inflationary to the economy; hyper-inflation a few years down the road proved them wrong.

Nowadays, former Fed Governor and possible Greenspan successor, Ben Bernanke, has not ruled out throwing money out of helicopters to stimulate the U.S. economy; and Greenspan's policies have contributed to the greatest financial imbalances in world financial history. And these are U.S. central bankers. What about Asian central bankers that were burned just a few years ago by a major currency crisis?

China has put in place an important step to facilitate the unwinding of the global imbalances. Be aware, though, that dollar diversification is going to pose its own set of challenges. The U.S. economy has been driven by extracting cash out of ever more expensive assets; as demand for U.S. assets decrease, creditors may demand higher interest rates for their dollar holdings.

The reduced demand for U.S. assets does not bode well for the frothy U.S. housing market. Greenspan has already forecast that the U.S. savings rate will increase - not because we are turning the U.S. into a nation of savers, but because equity extraction from homes will diminish (home equity extraction negatively influences the savings rate). While these adjustments are necessary and long overdue, we do not see that events will unfold without a fight.

In Asia, we do not believe the intra-Asian consumption will be make up all of the reduced U.S. consumption; and in the U.S., policy makers over the past 20 years have been confirmed in their opinion that a supply side stimulus is the cure to all economic problems. In that fight, we have our doubts that central banks will, as Greenspan puts it with self confidence, act as if we had a gold standard.

more...

[KoKo]

41. Risk Free..........Increase one's supply of Zip Locks....Bad times are

going to get worse. :nuke:

[54anickel]

43. 12:29 lunchtime check in - then I've gotta run

Dow 10,598.95 +19.18 (+0.18%)
Nasdaq 2,174.84 -1.15 (-0.05%)
S&P 500 1,232.50 +1.34 (+0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.252% +0.01
NYSE Volume 941,917,000
Nasdaq Volume 914,152,000

12:00PM : Similar in fashion to the last couple of sessions at the day's midway point, the major averages are mixed, as investors weigh upbeat earnings and economic data against a lack of stronger sector leadership... Strong earnings reports from the likes of Boeing (BA 67.46 +1.11). Sprint (FON 25.85 +0.88) and Amazon (AMZN 42.38 +4.64), as well as an unexpected increase in June durable goods orders, which rose a very strong 1.4% (consensus -1.0%), have provided some early support, as six out of ten economic sectors have traded higher...
Sprint's Q2 earnings surprise and raised its FY05 EBITDA guidance have helped the Telecom Services sector surge while Boeing's Q2 earnings of $0.79 per share, which beat forecasts by $0.18, and raised FY05 EPS outlook have provided a boost to Industrials... Other sectors trading higher include Health Care, following strong reports from AGN (+3.3%) and ABI (+8.4%), while better than expected earnings from PX (+1.6%) and NEM (+1.4%) have helped the Materials sector halve yesterday's 1.5% selloff... However, the absence of leadership from influential sectors like Financial and Technology have kept gains in check...

Benchmark yields trading near two-month highs (4.25%) on the 10-year note (+6/32), following better than expected economic data, continue to weigh on Financial while selling pressure in semiconductor (i.e. LLTC and TXN) has offset modest strength in hardware (i.e. HPQ and LXK)and software (i.e. MSFT and ORCL), holding Technology underwater... Despite strong Q2 reports from ConocoPhillips (COP 61.93 +0.51) and Kerr-McGee (KMG 79.42 +0.30), volatile oil prices ($59.15/bbl -$0.05) following modestly bullish oil inventories data have weighed on the Energy sector...

Crude oil inventories fell 2.25 mln barrels (consensus -2.75 mln) and gasoline supplies fell 2.13 mln barrels (consensus -700K barrels) but investors have focused most of their attention on a stronger than expected 3.14 mln barrel rise in distillates (consensus +2.0 mln)...DJTA +0.4, DJUA +0.3, DOT +0.8, Nasdaq 100 +0.2, Russell 2000 -0.8, SOX -0.9, S&P Midcap 400 -0.1, XOI -0.1, NYSE Adv/Dec 1406/1620, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1142/1702

11:30AM : Market still trades with a tinge of caution as weakness throughout chip stocks merely weakens already limited sector leadership... Even though Linear Tech (LLTC 38.71 -1.97) beat analysts' Q4 estimates by a penny last night and announced an additional 10 mln share buyback, lighter than expected revenues and Q1 sales guidance below consensus have prompted investors to reconsider recent gains that have kept the PHLX Semi Index near 52-week highs and up 10% for the year...

Other notable laggards include Intel (INTC 26.73 -0.16), which has minimized gains on the Dow, as well as STM (-3.1%), which missed estimates by a penny, and TXN (-1.3%), which has consolidated following yesterday's earnings-related surge... While not one of the 19 components in the SOX, a 13% drubbing in Atmel (ATML 2.47 -0.38) shares following an analyst downgrade certainly has not helped sentiment within the group...SOX -1.9, NYSE Adv/Dec 1353/1621, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1121/1657

11:00AM : Major averages retrace earlier highs as oil prices turn negative following better than expected oil inventories data... Crude oil futures ($58.95/bbl -$0.25), which were up modestly heading into the EIA's weekly oil report, have recently slipped below $59/bbl, helping investors refocus on this morning's strong earnings and economic data...

The Energy Dept has reported the tenth consecutive weekly build in distillates, posting a stronger than expected 3.14 mln barrel rise (consensus +2.0 mln) while crude oil inventories fell 2.25 mln barrels (consensus -2.75 mln) and gasoline supplies fell 2.13 mln barrels (consensus -700K barrels)... NYSE Adv/Dec 1318/1582, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1168/1562

10:30AM : Despite new home sales hitting another new record, equities surrender early gains... June new home sales rose 4% to a new record 1.374 mln (consensus 1.3 mln), lending further evidence to the understanding that low mortgage rates continue to underpin strong buying demand...

Homebuilders, which were already in focus after Centex (CTX 73.43 -2.18) beat analysts' Q1 forecasts by $0.05, have also slipped, as investors appear to be using the positive data as an impetus to lock in recent profits, as the PHLX Housing Sector Index (HGX -1.1%) has surged 21% already this year versus lackluster year-to-date performances for the Dow and S&P of -1.9% and +1.6%, respectively...NYSE Adv/Dec 1315/1509, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1033/1606

[54anickel]

44. Asian Central Banks Start Bond Funds to Lure Local Investors

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aq3_UOBqqyGE&refer=top_world_news

July 27 (Bloomberg) -- China, Singapore and nine other Asia-Pacific central banks bought $2 billion of their own bonds this year. Now they want investors to do the same.

The banks started the Pan-Asian Bond Index Fund with $1 billion as part of a plan to increase investment in the region. The fund opened for trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on July 7, and investors added $120 million in the first week. The central banks used the other $1 billion to create eight funds in countries where they are trying to develop local-currency bond markets.

``The initiative is expected to help raise investor awareness and interest in Asian bonds by providing low-cost products,'' said Li Wenlong, an official in Beijing at the People's Bank of China, the nation's central bank.

The Pan-Asian fund consists of bonds sold by China, South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia. State Street Global Advisors Singapore Ltd. manages it as part of the $1.4 trillion that its parent oversees worldwide.

more...

[54anickel]

45. Learning From Lance

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/07/27/opinion/27friedman.html?incamp=article_popular

snip>

John Mack, the new C.E.O. at Morgan Stanley, initially demanded in the contract he signed June 30 that his total pay for the next two years would be no less than the average pay package received by the C.E.O.'s at Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns. If that average turned out to be more than $25 million, Mr. Mack was to be paid at least that much. He eventually backed off that demand after a howl of protest, but it struck me as the epitome of what is wrong in America today.

We are now playing defense. A top C.E.O. wants to be paid not based on his performance, but based on the average of his four main rivals! That is like Lance Armstrong's saying he will race only if he is guaranteed to come in first or second, no matter what his cycling times are on each leg.

snip>

And if you were president, and you had just seen more suicide bombs in London, wouldn't you say to your aides: "We have got to reduce our dependence on Middle East oil. We have to do it for our national security. We have to do it because only if we bring down the price of crude will these countries be forced to reform. And we should want to do it because it is clear that green energy solutions are the wave of the future, and the more quickly we impose a stringent green agenda on ourselves, the more our companies will lead innovation in these technologies."

Instead, we are about to pass an energy bill that, while it does contain some good provisions, will make no real dent in our gasoline consumption, largely because no one wants to demand that Detroit build cars that get much better mileage. We are just feeding Detroit the rope to hang itself. It's assisted suicide. I thought people went to jail for that?

And if you were president, would you really say to the nation, in the face of the chaos in Iraq, "If our commanders on the ground say we need more troops, I will send them," but they have not asked. It is not what the generals are asking you, Mr. President - it is what you are asking them, namely: "What do you need to win?" Because it is clear we are not winning, and we are not winning because we have never made Iraq a secure place where normal politics could emerge.

more...

[UpInArms]

48. Wealthy less likely to suffer pain when near death

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B8251E0F1%2DF30D%2D4329%2D98E7%2D8C49DBF2D355%7D&siteid=mktw

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Samuel Johnson once noted: "It is better to live rich than to die rich."

A new study from the University of Michigan shows that may not be quite so true. According to a study published in the August issue of the Journal of Palliative Medicine, the wealthier someone is, the less pain they are likely to suffer at the end of their life.

Palliative care is both a philosophy and a structured system for delivering medical assistance. It tries to prevent and relieve suffering and support the highest quality of life for patients and their families, no matter the stage of the disease in the patient.

The Michigan study showed that men and women 70 and older, whose net worth was $70,000 or more, were 30% less likely than poorer people to have felt pain during the last year of their life.

Age, gender, ethnicity and diagnosis didn't matter: Money made the difference.

...more...

[UpInArms]

49. More layoffs loom as Clarion consolidates plants

http://wwmt.com/engine.pl?station=wwmt&id=18216&template=breakout_local.html

SOUTH HAVEN (NEWS 3) - Layoffs have started at a West Michigan automotive supplier - and more are likely on the way.

Clarion Technologies is consolidating its four West Michigan plants, including the South Haven facility.

The auto part manufacturer employed more than 400 people at one point. About 180 have worked at the South Haven plant, which is now down to fewer than three dozen.

Plant manager Joe Deckert says the company is looking to consolidate its four West Michigan plants into two. Despite tax breaks from the city, the company may still leave South Haven.

...a bit more...

[DoBotherMe]

51. KICK n/t

[UpInArms]

52. U.S. economy gaining strength Fed Beige Book also sees little inflation t

U.S. economy gaining strength
Fed Beige Book also sees little inflation threat

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B701C5532%2D5BA3%2D4D1D%2DBB3D%2DDB830AA2D366%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. economy appears to be shrugging off the effects of higher energy prices and is gaining momentum through mid-July, according to a Federal Reserve survey released Wednesday.

The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book report on current economic conditions found seven of the Fed's 12 district banks saying the economy was getting stronger or remaining solid. Read full Fed survey.

Only one bank district, covering the New York region, said growth was slowing.

This is in contrast to the June beige book, when three regions reported uneven or poor growth.

The report suggests the economy ended the second quarter in good shape. The government will release its first estimate of growth in April-June quarter on Friday. Annual growth is expected to slow from 3.8% in the first quarter to about 3.4% in the second, according to a survey of economists by MarketWatch.

The Beige Book survey said factory managers were upbeat about the outlook for manufacturing, but were still not hiring new workers.

...more...

Here's the actual report:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/beigebook/2005/20050727/default.htm

excerpt:

Consumer Spending
Most Districts reported increases in retail sales, and reports on retailers' expectations were generally positive. Dallas said sales growth had been stronger than expected given high gasoline prices, and Atlanta noted that higher gasoline prices did not appear to have cut into spending on other items; Cleveland and Chicago said warmer weather may have boosted sales in their Districts. Minneapolis and Kansas City reported solid year-over-year retail sales gains, and sales also increased in the Philadelphia, Richmond, and San Francisco Districts. The weakest report on retail sales came from the Boston District, where sales were flat or down from a year ago and retailers were less optimistic than in previous surveys. New York also reported a softening in sales in early July following solid growth in June, while St. Louis said reports on retail sales were mixed in June.

Nearly all Districts that reported on vehicle sales noted improvements, which were generally attributed to a new round of price discounting by some automakers. Cleveland reported dramatic gains, saying all types of dealerships benefited from increased buyer traffic. San Francisco also said vehicle sales rose substantially in response to the price cuts. Only St. Louis cited mixed reports on auto sales. Sales of most types of vehicles were characterized as strong, although Philadelphia and Kansas City reported some weakness in sales of large SUVs. Auto dealers in the Philadelphia and Dallas Districts were somewhat concerned about future auto sales, but Kansas City said dealers expect strong sales to continue.

<snip>

Labor Markets, Wages, and Prices
The demand for labor continued to increase in most Districts, although hiring in several Districts was mixed. Atlanta, Chicago, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco all noted an overall firming in labor markets. Boston reported moderate increases in services employment and mostly steady employment in retail and manufacturing. In the Richmond District, jobs increased moderately at services firms but declined slightly at manufacturing firms. New York said labor markets were a bit softer overall despite a pickup in hiring in financial services. Several Districts reported increased demand for temporary workers, while no Districts reported weaker demand for temps. Skilled workers were said to be in shorter supply in several Districts, and truck drivers were reported as scarce in the Cleveland, Richmond, and Atlanta Districts.

Despite generally tighter labor markets, nearly all Districts said overall wage pressures remained moderate. The only wage pressures cited by the Dallas District were in the accounting and energy industries, and Chicago said the only sizable wage gains were in some skilled professions experiencing labor shortages. San Francisco also reported only modest overall wage growth but noted an increasing use of incentive compensation by some employers to attract workers. Rising health-care costs continued to be a concern for contacts in the Atlanta and San Francisco Districts, but Chicago reported that one large health insurance firm plans to implement the smallest premium increase in a decade.

Overall price pressures either eased slightly or remained unchanged in most Districts, despite substantial increases in the costs of energy and some building materials. Manufacturers in the New York District reported a marked deceleration in input prices and expect substantially less upward price pressure in coming months. Some moderation in input price increases was also noted in the Richmond, Kansas City, and Cleveland Districts. Overall cost and price pressures were described as mild in the Richmond District, moderate in the Chicago District, and largely unchanged from the second quarter in the Philadelphia District. Kansas City and Minneapolis noted some softening in the costs of steel. However, many Districts reported substantial increases in the costs of energy, petroleum-based products, and building materials such as concrete and plywood. Chicago, Cleveland, and Dallas said that transportation firms were able to pass on much of their increased fuel costs to customers. However, in a number of Districts, firms outside the transportation sector were reported as having only limited success passing on cost increases. Retail prices were reported as either flat or up moderately from the previous survey.

...more at link...

[UpInArms]

53. 2:34 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,625.07 +45.30 (+0.43%)
Nasdaq 2,183.39 +7.40 (+0.34%)
S&P 500 1,235.42 +4.26 (+0.35%)
10-Yr Bond 4.251 +0.12 (+0.28%)

NYSE Volume 1,354,445,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,285,980,000

2:00PM: Range-bound trading persists for the major averages as investors fail to show a strong sense of conviction on either the bullish or bearish side of the aisle... Of the S&P's 139 groups, Wireless Services (+4.4%) continues to pace the day's gains following Sprint's (FON 26.27 +1.30) strong report while better than expected Q2 earnings from Sigma-Aldrich (SIAL 63.81 +6.12) and International Flavors (IFF 38.15 +0.76) have helped Specialty Chemicals (+2.75) turn in the afternoon's second best performance...

Electronic Manufacturing Services (-2.9%), however, remains the day's worst performing group following a disappointing Q3 report from Sanmina-SCI (SANM 4.69 -0.57)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1553/1601, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1314/1643

1:30PM: Equities continue to languish at current levels as subdued action underscores the epitome of warm-weather doldrums... Also trading in relatively tight ranges have been bonds... While under pressure heading into the day's recent $20 bln 2-year auction, as the benchmark is off 7 ticks to yield 4.25%, indirect bidder participation of 34.4%, which was relatively in line with the 12-auction average of 38.2%, has not been enough to move the Treasury market more aggressively in either direction...

However, the upcoming release of the Fed's Beige Book at 14:00 ET may have more of an impact on overall trading for both stocks and bonds...NYSE Adv/Dec 1483/1662, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1263/1698

[ozymandius]

55. It's been a long day. So to close...

Dow 10,637.09 +57.32 (+0.54%)
Nasdaq 2,186.22 +10.23 (+0.47%)
S&P 500 1,236.79 +5.63 (+0.46%)
10-Yr Bond 42.61 +0.22 (+0.52%)
NYSE Volume 1,945,288,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,794,181,000

blather available later

[54anickel]

56. Stocks Surge on Upbeat Fed Beige Book

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050727/wall_street.html?.v=18

Stock Prices Jump After Federal Reserve Suggests That the Economy Has Rebounded From Spring Soft Patch


NEW YORK (AP) -- Investors sent stocks moderately higher Wednesday after the market viewed a Federal Reserve report on the economy as a sign that the Fed's string of interest rate hikes might be near an end.

Wall Street was mired in a narrow trading range until midafternoon, when the Fed released its Beige Book, a survey of the business climate around the country. The central bank said the job market improved and that inflation, a concern for the Fed and the stock market, was fairly contained. Seven out of 12 districts reported their regional economies were growing or holding steady.

"It's a more benign take than previous Beige Books," said Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist for Prudential Investment Management fixed income. "It will presumably open their eyes (the Fed's) to the fact that the economy could be cooling ... and they won't have to continue raising rates more than another two or three moves."

more...