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What happened to the massive new Democrat voter registration in Ohio 2004?

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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-17-05 12:41 PM
Original message
What happened to the massive new Democrat voter registration in Ohio 2004?
Reports of massive new voter registration in Democratic counties in Ohio (not to mention other swing states) were an important reason why many believed that Kerry would win Ohio and the general election in 2004 -- and why many still do believe that: http://www.truthout.org/docs_04/printer_092704K.shtml

Furthermore, analyses contained in the recent DNC report on the 2004 Ohio Election suggested (without actually saying so) that reports of massive new voter registration in Democratic areas of Ohio could be used to show, if verified, that a Bush victory in Ohio in 2004 was most implausible. This is because of the following:

The DNC report showed that new voter registration was associated with increased voter turnout (Section VI, Figure 12)http://a9.g.akamai.net/7/9/8082/v001/www.democrats.org/... . Since voter turnout is defined as the percent of registered voters who actually vote, the increase in new voter registration would have led to proportionately greater numbers of voters compared to the 2000 election for two reasons: a larger pool of voters to begin with, and a larger likelihood of voting among voters in that larger pool.

I recently had an opportunity to assess the plausibility of a Bush win in Ohio in the light of comparative voter registration information when I received data on 2000 and 2004 Ohio voter registration by county from Kenneth Blackwell's Office, through Voters Unite! http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos/results/index.html . Well, you can imagine my frustration when I found out that this data indicated that increases in voter registration in Ohio in 2004, compared to 2000, were actually more pronounced in Republican than in
Democratic counties (correlation coefficient for Kerry % of vote in 2004 with ratio of 2004 to 2000 registered voters, by county = -0.22, p<.05).

Although the above report by Ford Fessenden of the New York Times does not specifically compare 2000 with 2004 total voter registration counts, the picture painted in that article is so at odds with Blackwell's official figures that it seems to me that either the article or Blackwell's official numbers must be fraudulent. Perhaps Blackwell knew that accurate voter registration data could be used to show the implausibility of a Bush victory in Ohio.

Here are some examples from the article that would lead any reasonable person to conclude that the information in the article cannot be consistent with Blackwell's official data, which indicates greater Republican than Democratic increases in voter registration from 2000 to 2004:

"A sweeping voter registration campaign in heavily Democratic areas has added tens of thousands of new voters to the rolls in the swing states of Ohio and Florida, a surge that has far exceeded the efforts of Republicans in both states, a review of registration data shows." ....

"county-by-county data shows that in Democratic areas of Ohio - primarily low-income and minority neighborhoods - new registrations since January have risen 250 percent over the same period in 2000. In comparison, new registrations have increased just 25 percent in Republican areas." ....

"These numbers are similar across Ohio. The Times examined registration from Jan. 1 to July 31 in a sample of counties ... In rock-ribbed Republican areas ... 35,000 new voters have registered, a substantial increase over the 28,000 that registered in those areas in the first seven months of 2000.... But in heavily Democratic areas - 60 ZIP codes mostly in the core of big cities like Cleveland, Dayton, Columbus and Youngstown .... new registrations have more than tripled over 2000, to 63,000 from 17,000.


Yet, according to Blackwell's official numbers, Cuyahoga County (which contains Cleveland) showed a DECREASE in voter registration from 2000 to 2004, while Warren County (heavily Republican, and the site of the infamous "lockdown" for bogus "national security" reasons, which allowed Republican officials to count ballots in the absence of any oversight) exhibited a 42% INCREASE in voter registration from 2000 to 2004.

So what can we do now? Perhaps Ford Fessenden or someone else who reported on the massive increase in voter registration in Ohio, such as Kate Zernike, has evidence to prove that the voter registration figures now being supplied by the Ohio Secretary of State's Office are fraudulent. Does anyone know them, or are there any DUers who work at the NY Times who would be able to look into this? If not, I'll write the Times a letter, but I doubt that that will get me anywhere. Or any other ideas on how to pursue this matter would be appreciated.

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Melodybe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-17-05 12:45 PM
Response to Original message
1. Well, I met a young man Wed. that did not get to vote.
He registered at the YMCA and they never turned in his form.

He was very pissed, he was a Kerry voter.

He joined the Ole Miss democrats, I'll talk to him more about it at the first meeting.

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Botany Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-17-05 12:53 PM
Response to Original message
2. I live in Columbus OH ..... Franklin County
I wish I knew what to tell you we got over 450,000 first time anti bush
voters registered and to the polls. but.....

Greene county 3 or 4 Precincts with 3,800 registered voters from
2 all Black Schools (Wilberforce & Central State) produced 50 votes

Perry county had 3 precincts with greater then 100% turn out

Trumbell county had more absentee ballots then people who registered
for absentee ballots

Franklin County had Urbancrest (all black) with a 40 % turn out
but people waiting for 2 to 6 hours to vote in the rain.

I could go on and on. Kerry kicked bush's ass here. We had Republicans for
Kerry in major #s. It was flat stolen.

however the press and most of the public do not care.
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AndyTiedye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-17-05 02:18 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. The Presstitutes Are In On the Caper
the press and most of the public do not care.

The press is in on it. They explain away the theft one way or another.

The people don't care because they don't know.

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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-17-05 05:18 PM
Response to Reply #2
8. Franklin was one Ohio Dem. County where Blackwell's official data
actually demonstrates a big increase from in registration for 2000. But of course the long lines prevented perhaps tens of thousands from voting there.

Cuyahoga County is one of the most strange ones. Blackwell's data actually demonstrates a DECREASE in voter registration there. Could that be true? And if not, how would we prove it?
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riqster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-18-05 07:41 AM
Response to Reply #8
21. Cuyahoga County was a Mega-Kludge in 2004
They switched from their old voter registration system to the Diebold product, and had a helluva time. That could explain the difference in that county.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-18-05 08:15 AM
Response to Reply #21
22. The data from Cuyahoga County is so strange in so many ways
Probably because it contained the votes to put Kerry over the top.

Can you think of a way to prove that their current voter registration numbers are fraudulent? They make no sense at all in view of the reports of massive INCREASES in voter registration in Cuyahoga County.
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riqster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-18-05 08:37 AM
Response to Reply #22
24. Very difficult
Their new system has an MS Access backend, and deletions are DELETIONS. If they also tossed the cards, the voters don't exist.

UNLESS...you can get the old server backup tapes and they haven't been overwritten. However, that is a long shot at best.
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Amaryllis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-17-05 11:29 PM
Response to Reply #2
18. I think it's not that the people dont care so much as that a huge percent
still don't know. Do you really think that all those new voters who voted for Kerry don't care? I think they'd care a whole lot if they knew. It amazes me how many progressives still don't get it.
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andym Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-17-05 01:27 PM
Response to Original message
3. Contact the Ohio Dem Party and try to get their info on new registrations
Edited on Sun Jul-17-05 02:10 PM by andym
The Ohio Democratic Party would likely have a very good idea about how many voters they helped register between 2000 and 2004, see if you get any data from them.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-18-05 08:19 AM
Response to Reply #3
23. In view of what is described below in posts 12, 14, and 15
it looks like getting good info through the Ohio Democratic party is going to be an uphill strugge. Do you have any idea on where to start?
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Fly by night Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-17-05 01:42 PM
Response to Original message
4. Many NYT reporters list their email addresses with their articles.
Or you can go to the NYT web-site and obtain their email addresses. Writing these reporters directly would be the way to go. Again, many (but not all) NYT reporters make their email addresses available.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-18-05 05:57 AM
Response to Reply #4
19. I will do that, thank you
First I want to see if anyone has a more direct access way of doing this. My experiences with writing to newspapers has not been met with a very high response rate.
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farmbo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-17-05 03:19 PM
Response to Original message
6. Sproul & Assocs (GOP Operatives)had a strong undercover operation in Ohio
http://markcrispinmiller.blogspot.com/2005/06/team-bush...

They were working Ohio college towns and offering to help first time voters register or to vote absentee. They were even so helpful as to offer to drop the signed forms in the mail. :sarcasm: Of course, those potential Democratic forms never made it to the BOEs and the Kids honestly didn't believe they could vote. Sproul was prosecuted for election fraud in Nevada, but also had a large, well-funded operation in Ohio where one Ken Blackwell is the Chief Elections officer.

I volunteered at Ohio State University and had this tale repeated dozens of times by angry students. They also had covert crews at U of Toledo and Akron. Although they tried to hide it, this outfit was paid $8.3 million by Bush/Cheney, making them the largest contractor in the 2004 race.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-17-05 04:19 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. That's interesting information
It would be nice to know how many potential Democratic voters they prevented from registering by doing this.

But I don't think this would have affected the information in the Fessenden article, or other articles that spoke of massive increases in voter registration -- for the simple reason that the people that you speak of were never registered. Right?

So it seems to me that this problem is over and above the issue of the discrepancy between the reported massive increases in specifically Democratic registration on the one hand, and Blackwell's current voter registration data on the other hand.
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farmbo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-17-05 06:05 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. Many were registered but Sproul's crooks "helped" them vote absentee.
In Ohio you can either get an absentee ballot from the BOE or send for one by mail. Once you send for one, you can no longer vote at your precinct, according to Blackwell. As it turns out, Blackwell was wrong and had this bogus information on his website. Legally, they could vote provisionally, but most just shrugged it off and didn't go to the polls when their absentee ballot didn't arrive in time.

I heard this story dozens of times, so the supposition is that it was systematic and may have effected thousands of voters.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-17-05 06:16 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. So, what's happening with Sproul now?
Is he being prosecuted, or is he going to try and do this next time too?
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farmbo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-17-05 06:23 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. Sorry...you don't want to know
http://www.windycitylefty.com/2005/01/nathan-sproul-at-...

In BushWorld the lunatics are in charge of the asylum.
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Botany Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-17-05 06:33 PM
Response to Reply #10
13. Farmbo got it he partied w/ bush on Xmas.
Plus he was paid for work after the election in Ohio ......
can you say recount/
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mod mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-17-05 06:30 PM
Response to Original message
12. Late voter purges by Blackwell. Remember that mid Oct Lucas County Dem HQ
break-in (just punks stealing sensitive info)? Wel could it be that it might be responsible for turnout rates in the high 30's and low 40's in high dem neighborhoods?

Now we just had a similar happening at the Ohio Dem Party HQ in Columbus. This time however, they didn't need forced entry-they went right through an open window to Denny White's (Chair of Ohio Dem Party) office. Hmmh....
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Botany Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-17-05 06:36 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. Something about Denny White does not pass the smell test.
Where were the cameras? Where were the alarms?

I went to the ODP office with solid proof of election tempering
on 11/3/04 and was treated like I had 3 heads.
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mod mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-17-05 06:46 PM
Response to Reply #14
15. I agree! I have resigned all volunteer work for them until they clean
house. It's not only Denny White, but Bill Anthony. On March 23 at the House Adminstration Hearing in Columbus, Mr Anthony, who besides being the Chair of the Franklin County Dems, is also the Chair of the Franklin county BOE, said the election was fair and anyone who said otherwise is a "conspiracy theorist".

(note: Perhaps when they are looking into those $ 10,000 Diebold checks they should look at all BOE officials.)
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Botany Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-17-05 08:19 PM
Response to Reply #15
16. "conspiracy theorist"
I love be told what I saw with my own eyes did not happen. The Ohio
Democratic Party is very dirty. My own guess some Saudi / Noe / Diebold
money has made it's way to more then a few "democratic" workers.

We kicked bush's ass in this state.
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mod mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-18-05 07:34 AM
Response to Reply #16
20. I agree. I will wear any label they throw at at me because I am so
sure of the fraud. I closed my business of 17+ years to fight this bs.

AND BY THE WAY MR TAFT, THERES STILL AN EMPTY STORE FRONT ON HIGH STREET IN COLUMBUS BECAUSE OF YOU AND THE OTHER CORRUPT THUGS WHO STOLE OUR ELECTION. They have been willing to let our state and country go down the toilet so that their rich cronies like Tom Noe can get richer.
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-17-05 08:33 PM
Response to Reply #12
17. I think that voter purges could be responsible for low registration rates
but not low turnout rates. Turnout is defined (at least in the DNC report it is) as the percent of registered voters who voted.

So I would think that the purges resulted in decreased voter registration, is that right?
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Nothing Without Hope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-18-05 10:36 PM
Response to Original message
25. You have raised an extremely important question and avenue for
investigation.

Another paragraph from that Sept 26, 2004 NYT article:


A Big Increase of New Voters in Swing States


NY Times
By FORD FESSENDEN
Published: September 26, 2004

(snip)

The analysis by The New York Times of county-by-county data shows that in Democratic areas of Ohio - primarily low-income and minority neighborhoods - new registrations since January have risen 250 percent over the same period in 2000. In comparison, new registrations have increased just 25 percent in Republican areas. A similar pattern is apparent in Florida: in the strongest Democratic areas, the pace of new registration is 60 percent higher than in 2000, while it has risen just 12 percent in the heaviest Republican areas.

(snip)


(The full text of the article can be read here: http://sccdcc.mn.sabren.com/mt-static/archives/issues/0... )
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Time for change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-18-05 11:22 PM
Response to Reply #25
26. Well, I HOPE this leads somewhere
I've written the Times about this and I copied Conyers on my letter. I hope they're able to put me in touch with the reporters and that the reporters are able to shed some light on this.
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