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chrisclub Donating Member (73 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-06-05 01:53 PM
Original message
Exit poll vs. current Bush Approval
Edited on Wed Jul-06-05 02:19 PM by chrisclub
Amazing correlation:
Exit Polls:
http://mysite.verizon.net/myk15/2percent.html

06/05 Bush Approval (scroll down to last chart-SORTED BY 06/05 'NET APPROVAL' IN DESCENDING ORDER):
http://surveyusa.com/Bush50StateApproval0605.htm

I consider this practically proof of how the states voted 2004 and of Kerry votes being stolen.

Red States that are now within 1% Kerry:

(Note: Ohio is now net -17% Bush and Nevada is -19%) They absolutle Hate Bush in these two states that went Red with the Diebold/ES&E machines)

If the Approval reflects how they voted (or at least how they would vote today), Bush lost(would lose) by over 4% in Florida, New Mexico, North Carolina, Missouri, Colorado, Arkansas, Iowa, Ohio, & Nevada.

SORTED BY 06/05 'NET APPROVAL' IN DESCENDING ORDER

State '04 ECV Approve Disapprove Net
Utah Bush 63% 34% +29%
Nebraska Bush 60% 37% +23%
Wyoming Bush 58% 38% +20%
Idaho Bush 56% 39% +17%
Montana Bush 56% 42% +14%
Alabama Bush 54% 41% +13%
Alaska Bush 53% 43% +10%
North Dakota Bush 52% 43% +9%
Kansas Bush 51% 45% +6%
Kentucky Bush 50% 45% +5%
Mississippi Bush 50% 46% +4%
Texas Bush 50% 47% +3%
Virginia Bush 49% 46% +3%
Louisiana Bush 49% 47% +2%
Oklahoma Bush 49% 47% +2%
South Carolina Bush 48% 47% +1%
South Dakota Bush 48% 47% +1%
Georgia Bush 48% 48% +0%
Indiana Bush 48% 48% +0%
West Virginia Bush 47% 47% +0%
Tennessee Bush 48% 49% -1%
Arizona Bush 46% 49% -3%

>>Red states that Bush would now lose by 4%+<<
Florida Bush 46% 50% -4%
New Mexico Bush 45% 50% -5%
North Carolina Bush 45% 50% -5%
Missouri Bush 46% 52% -6%
Colorado Bush 45% 52% -7%
Arkansas Bush 44% 52% -8%
Iowa Bush 44% 52% -8%

>>Blue States... Except Ohio, Nevada<<
Hawaii Kerry 43% 51% -8%
New Hampshire Kerry 43% 53% -10%
Minnesota Kerry 43% 54% -11%
Oregon Kerry 43% 54% -11%
Pennsylvania Kerry 42% 53% -11%
Maryland Kerry 41% 57% -16%
Washington Kerry 41% 57% -16%

Ohio Bush 40% 57% -17% << Red sate; Bush now down by 17%

Wisconsin Kerry 40% 57% -17%
Maine Kerry 39% 57% -18%
Massachusetts Kerry 39% 58% -19%
Delaware Kerry 38% 57% -19%

Nevada Bush 38% 57% -19% << Red sate; Bush now down by 17%

New Jersey Kerry 38% 58% -20%
Michigan Kerry 38% 59% -21%
California Kerry 37% 58% -21%
Connecticut Kerry 37% 58% -21%
Illinois Kerry 37% 58% -21%
New York Kerry 33% 62% -29%
Rhode Island Kerry 33% 63% -30%
Vermont Kerry 32% 65% -33%
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indepat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-06-05 02:04 PM
Response to Original message
1. The Congress, the media, and the people cannot be bothered by such piffles
even if as obvious as the noses on their faces.
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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-06-05 02:05 PM
Response to Original message
2. Yup, no way Ohio--OR Nevada--could have voted for Bush!
Could you define your columns, and explain a little better what these numbers are. Are you pulling these numbers from the two linked sites? And how have you correlated them? It's a confusing jumble of numbers.
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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-06-05 02:46 PM
Response to Original message
3. It doesn't prove that Kerry won, all by itself, but combining it
with other information, the total picture is overwhelming.

Add up all the exit poll analysis by TIA. Bush simply could not have won in the way that he did. It's not just that Kerry won the exit polls, it's that the discrepancy between the exit polls and Bush's vote skews to the "red" in the east coast time zone. That is virtually impossible. (And that's just one of about 20 proofs--on the exit poll data alone.)

It's not just one or two examples of touchscreen voting machines changing Kerry votes to Bush votes. It's nearly 90 reported incidents, with only a two of them favoring Kerry. Again, impossible. (--and those were just the reported incidents; the "switch" was not easy for voters to catch.)

It's not just that almost all the votes in the country were tabulated by two companies using SECRET, PROPRIETARY software, it's that, in addition, both of these companies are run by rightwing Bushites.

It's not just that the Ohio election was all screwed up--with missing voting machines, and tens of thousands of misdirected and disenfranchised voters--it's that ALL of the many incidents of vote suppression happened in Democratic precincts.

It's not just that there were unfair voter purges in Florida, it's that all those who were purged were black voters (who vote about 80% Democratic).

And on and on. The list of such facts is very long.

And then you look at the opinion polls over the last year, which show that Americans hugely disapprove of every major Bush policy, foreign and domestic--way up in the 60% to 70% range. The Iraq war. The deficit. Social Security. You name it. My favorite: 63% of Americans disapprove of torturing prisoners UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. Bush does not represent the majority of Americans on any issue!

Not to mention Bush's approval ratings, which have been low for a year--much too low for him to be re-elected, said Zogby. At a mere 49% on the very day of his inauguration. And sinking like the Titanic--to about 40% today. Where is his support NOW? WHAT has changed? He's the same old Bush, up to the same old fascist tricks on behalf of his billionaire handlers, still running the same old unjust and murderous war.

And then you go back and look at the election again. The Dems blew the Repubs away in new voter registration in 2004, nearly 60/40. New voters voted overwhelmingly for Kerry. Independent voters voted overwhelmingly for Kerry. Nader voters voted overwhelming for Kerry.

Who else is there--other than the Gore/Bush 2000 voters, who canceled each other out? (And don't tell me Gore repeat voters, who were cheated out of the presidency in 2000, voted for Bush, cuz I'll punch you in the nose! And there is zero proof of it. AND, it was the GORE VOTERS who got all those OTHER people--the new voters--TO register and vote THIS TIME--all their non-voting family members, and co-workers, and friends. "You're gonna vote THIS TIME, aren't you?" "You've got to vote THIS TIME!" "The most important election in our history!" Etc. Etc. Etc.)

Rove says they had an "invisible" get out the vote campaign. Right. What they had was a whole lot of truly invisible votes--invisible because they weren't real. The UC Berkeley statistical group found 130,000 to 260,000 phantom votes for Bush in Florida's 3 main Democratic counties--Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach--in electronic vs paper voting. Those kind of votes. PHANTOM votes.

And then you look at this post by chrisclub--and you find out what people really think of Bush and his thieving, murderous Oil Cartel.

It's heartbreaking to know this, friends. But have courage, because we KNOW how to fix it.

The answer to the stink in Washington DC is state/local election reform. We must restore our right to vote! We must throw Diebold, ES&S and brethren out of the election business NOW! The only place where we can get that done is in state/local jurisdictions, where the authority over election systems still resides, and where ordinary people still have some say. See the DU Forum "2004 Election Results and Discussion" for information and action ideas:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...



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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-06-05 02:50 PM
Response to Original message
4. Bookmarked and recommended!
Those are very interesting stats, indeed. Thanks for the clarification.
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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-06-05 02:54 PM
Response to Original message
5. Have you stacked it up against the exit polls? I haven't looked there yet
but it would make an interesting table--or color chart, or even US map. What the exit polls said on election day. What approval polls are saying today.
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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-06-05 05:41 PM
Response to Original message
6. kick.nt
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-06-05 06:51 PM
Response to Original message
7. Been there, done that: THE GRAPH
Edited on Wed Jul-06-05 06:53 PM by TruthIsAll
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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-06-05 08:30 PM
Response to Original message
8. TIA, I could not find a graph by you that stacks up the current
approval ratings with the exit polls, to see how well they correlate. Could you direct me to one if you did it?

chrisclub, thanks for adding the column headings and other clarifying material!
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-06-05 10:09 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. GRAPH: Bush approval rating deviation from state exit poll and vote
Edited on Wed Jul-06-05 10:12 PM by TruthIsAll
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KaliTracy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-06-05 08:55 PM
Response to Original message
9. thanks for these breakdowns. Quite important . Thing that MSM doesn't get
is that his Numbers have been consistantly down since the election -- and have never stood up for the amount of people who supposedly voted "overwhelmingly" for him -- giving him his Mandate.

For example, this CNN poll was taken a few weeks after the election(Sorry I don't have the date, I was very new to DU at the time. I didn't join though until around Thanksgiving.)



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