|
![]() ![]() ![]() |
This topic is archived. |
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform |
![]() |
eomer
![]() |
Sat Jul-02-05 07:47 AM Original message |
US Count Votes: new version of Working Paper (Updated June 26, 2005) |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
TruthIsAll
![]() |
Sat Jul-02-05 09:23 AM Response to Original message |
1. The optimizer confirms: Min alpha 1.1545, R=.535 |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
Bill Bored
![]() |
Sat Jul-02-05 02:21 PM Response to Original message |
2. WTF is a "constant average" anyway? |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
Stevepol
![]() |
Sat Jul-02-05 03:39 PM Response to Reply #2 |
3. I think the whole point is that it's not necessary to worry |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
Time for change
![]() |
Sat Jul-02-05 03:39 PM Response to Reply #2 |
4. If that's the only problem you're having in reading this |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
Bill Bored
![]() |
Sat Jul-02-05 03:53 PM Response to Reply #4 |
6. Seems like they are saying that if 56% of Bush voters |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
TruthIsAll
![]() |
Sat Jul-02-05 04:45 PM Response to Reply #6 |
9. That is correct; K/B = 56/50 as stated by E-M is not feasible (possible) |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
TruthIsAll
![]() |
Sat Jul-02-05 05:11 PM Response to Reply #9 |
10. This is what happens if you assume a uniform K/B = 1.154 |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
TruthIsAll
![]() |
Sat Jul-02-05 05:29 PM Response to Reply #10 |
12. FOUR GRAPHS WHICH SHOW THE EFFECT OF HYPOTHETICAL UNIFORM K/B=1.154 |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
TruthIsAll
![]() |
Sun Jul-03-05 04:09 AM Response to Reply #12 |
17. GRAPH: Sensitivity of Kerry Pct and aggregate WPE to K/B (alpha) |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
Bill Bored
![]() |
Sun Jul-03-05 02:04 PM Response to Reply #9 |
22. TIA, Does your optimizer |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
TruthIsAll
![]() |
Sun Jul-03-05 03:19 PM Response to Reply #22 |
24. BB, a response.. |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
TruthIsAll
![]() |
Sun Jul-03-05 05:10 PM Response to Reply #24 |
26. I forgot to say... |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
Bill Bored
![]() |
Sun Jul-03-05 11:39 PM Response to Reply #24 |
27. All I can say is |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
kiwi_expat
![]() |
Fri Jul-15-05 08:38 AM Response to Reply #27 |
34. E-M Report says high WPEs in both directions in all five elections. |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
TruthIsAll
![]() |
Fri Jul-15-05 03:22 PM Response to Reply #34 |
42. But aggregate alpha most definitely correlates with precinct partisanship |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
kiwi_expat
![]() |
Fri Jul-15-05 09:00 PM Response to Reply #42 |
45. It's my understanding that the alpha slope is not statistically significant |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
TruthIsAll
![]() |
Sat Jul-16-05 01:11 PM Response to Reply #45 |
50. No, Febble said that USCV focus on High Bush precincts was incorrect. |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
kiwi_expat
![]() |
Sat Jul-16-05 10:36 PM Response to Reply #50 |
52. Febble's post: fraud most likely concentrated in Kerry strongholds. |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
TruthIsAll
![]() |
Sun Jul-17-05 07:49 AM Response to Reply #52 |
54. Minimum aggregate alpha is 1.155 (optimizer), not 1.12 (E-M) |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
kiwi_expat
![]() |
Fri Jul-15-05 09:51 PM Response to Reply #34 |
46. My fraud-hypothesis reading of the WPE scatter plot - |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
kiwi_expat
![]() |
Tue Jul-19-05 12:47 AM Response to Reply #46 |
73. I should have said.... |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
Bill Bored
![]() |
Fri Jul-15-05 10:24 PM Response to Reply #34 |
48. Right but not necessarily Kerry "strongholds" |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
kiwi_expat
![]() |
Sat Jul-16-05 01:22 AM Response to Reply #48 |
49. I'm sure you're right. But strongholds would probably be most affected. |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
Bill Bored
![]() |
Sat Jul-16-05 01:53 PM Response to Reply #49 |
51. Confusing but what we see the most of are moderate Bush precincts. |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
TruthIsAll
![]() |
Sun Jul-17-05 12:31 AM Response to Reply #49 |
53. It is NOT confusing - if you just look at the numbers. |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
kiwi_expat
![]() |
Sun Jul-17-05 09:22 AM Response to Reply #53 |
55. I agree that the heavy VOTES are not in High Bush/High Kerry precincts. |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
TruthIsAll
![]() |
Sun Jul-17-05 09:34 AM Response to Reply #55 |
56. Well, get over the flu, then. |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
kiwi_expat
![]() |
Sun Jul-17-05 10:59 PM Response to Reply #56 |
57. I am very wary of black boxes! :-) :-) |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
TruthIsAll
![]() |
Sun Jul-17-05 11:38 PM Response to Reply #57 |
58. Just verify the alphas and the wpe's and the vote switches. |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
kiwi_expat
![]() |
Mon Jul-18-05 12:53 AM Response to Reply #58 |
59. That is where the bulk of the votes are. Where is highest fraud RATE? |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
TruthIsAll
![]() |
Mon Jul-18-05 05:28 AM Response to Reply #59 |
60. WPE and alphas steadily decrease from Bush to Kerry precincts |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
Febble
![]() |
Mon Jul-18-05 07:48 AM Response to Reply #60 |
61. Someone just requested I respond here |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
TruthIsAll
![]() |
Mon Jul-18-05 09:21 AM Response to Reply #61 |
62. Aggregate alpha (1.158) = weighted sum of partisan alphas |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
Febble
![]() |
Mon Jul-18-05 09:38 AM Response to Reply #62 |
63. Do you mean weighted mean? |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
TruthIsAll
![]() |
Mon Jul-18-05 09:51 AM Response to Reply #63 |
64. The optimizer determined the partisan alphas AND the wtd mean aggregate |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
TruthIsAll
![]() |
Mon Jul-18-05 10:15 AM Response to Reply #64 |
65. Febble, if you would like to have me run the optimizer for your input |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
Febble
![]() |
Mon Jul-18-05 10:28 AM Response to Reply #64 |
66. How can it be the weighted "sum"? |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
TruthIsAll
![]() |
Mon Jul-18-05 11:56 AM Response to Reply #66 |
67. I weighted the precincts and estimated the votes... |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
Febble
![]() |
Mon Jul-18-05 01:53 PM Response to Reply #67 |
68. Well, the actual means, |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
TruthIsAll
![]() |
Mon Jul-18-05 02:58 PM Response to Reply #68 |
69. Disagree with the model? Well, then stress-test it.... |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
Febble
![]() |
Mon Jul-18-05 04:17 PM Response to Reply #69 |
70. I cannot possibly comment |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
TruthIsAll
![]() |
Mon Jul-18-05 08:54 PM Response to Reply #70 |
71. Febble, you STILL don't understand the optimizer. |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
Febble
![]() |
Tue Jul-19-05 02:23 AM Response to Reply #71 |
74. You did, actually |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
Febble
![]() |
Tue Jul-19-05 04:13 AM Response to Reply #71 |
75. Fuller response: |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
kiwi_expat
![]() |
Mon Jul-18-05 11:01 PM Response to Reply #69 |
72. HC: Really high vote counts are in Bush partisanship precincts |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
TruthIsAll
![]() |
Tue Jul-19-05 06:36 AM Response to Reply #72 |
76. Kiwi, compute average votes/precinct. And.... |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
Febble
![]() |
Tue Jul-19-05 07:58 AM Response to Reply #76 |
77. The total votes |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
TruthIsAll
![]() |
Tue Jul-19-05 08:15 AM Response to Reply #77 |
78. No kidding. Now tell us something we don't know. |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
Febble
![]() |
Tue Jul-19-05 08:45 AM Response to Reply #78 |
80. No, I'm not |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
TruthIsAll
![]() |
Tue Jul-19-05 08:34 AM Response to Reply #77 |
79. I refer you to USCV Appendix F: Table 1 |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
Febble
![]() |
Tue Jul-19-05 09:02 AM Response to Reply #79 |
81. I am not disputing that both |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
TruthIsAll
![]() |
Tue Jul-19-05 09:22 AM Response to Reply #81 |
82. Not misleading when confirmed using TWO different methods |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
Febble
![]() |
Tue Jul-19-05 09:57 AM Response to Reply #82 |
83. I am not disputing yours or Ron's skills |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
TruthIsAll
![]() |
Tue Jul-19-05 10:13 AM Response to Reply #83 |
84. The challenge still stands: Let's have your input to the model. |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
Febble
![]() |
Tue Jul-19-05 10:31 AM Response to Reply #84 |
85. You know I can't do that. |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
TruthIsAll
![]() |
Tue Jul-19-05 10:51 AM Response to Reply #85 |
86. The WPE's are constrained to exactly match E-M. And they do. |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
foo_bar
![]() |
Tue Jul-19-05 05:15 PM Response to Reply #86 |
87. black box quoting |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
Febble
![]() |
Wed Jul-20-05 01:47 AM Response to Reply #87 |
89. And I would add |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
TruthIsAll
![]() |
Wed Jul-20-05 07:19 AM Response to Reply #89 |
90. Since when are telephone polls more accurate than exit polls? |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
Febble
![]() |
Wed Jul-20-05 07:42 AM Response to Reply #90 |
91. I didn't say they were more accurate |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
TruthIsAll
![]() |
Sun Jul-03-05 03:29 PM Response to Reply #22 |
25. Proof that the WPE's are output and match E-M |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
Time for change
![]() |
Sat Jul-02-05 09:37 PM Response to Reply #6 |
16. I understood that part |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
Bill Bored
![]() |
Sun Jul-03-05 01:37 PM Response to Reply #16 |
20. This may be a veiled reference to the bias index |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
Time for change
![]() |
Sun Jul-03-05 02:32 PM Response to Reply #20 |
23. I think you're right |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
NC Beach Girl
![]() |
Sat Jul-02-05 04:20 PM Response to Reply #4 |
8. LOL |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
Bill Bored
![]() |
Sun Jul-03-05 01:38 PM Response to Reply #4 |
21. Please define "reasonable number!" nt |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
eomer
![]() |
Sat Jul-02-05 03:48 PM Response to Reply #2 |
5. Hey Bill, I'll give it a try. |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
Bill Bored
![]() |
Sat Jul-02-05 07:40 PM Response to Reply #5 |
13. Well, I have to say, the first one is ridiculous! |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
TruthIsAll
![]() |
Sat Jul-02-05 08:21 PM Response to Reply #13 |
14. No one ever said EXACTLY for anything. |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
LightningFlash
![]() |
Sat Jul-02-05 08:22 PM Response to Reply #14 |
15. It doesn't at all. That's called the whitewash. n/t |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
eomer
![]() |
Sun Jul-03-05 08:53 AM Response to Reply #13 |
18. Sorry, I wasn't too clear about what I meant. |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
Bill Bored
![]() |
Sun Jul-03-05 01:30 PM Response to Reply #18 |
19. Here: |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
TruthIsAll
![]() |
Mon Jul-04-05 09:32 AM Response to Reply #19 |
28. GRAPH: Kerry Vote vs. Exit Poll completion rate |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
LightningFlash
![]() |
Sat Jul-02-05 04:06 PM Response to Original message |
7. Here's where the "hypothesis" is refuted again... |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
Time for change
![]() |
Sat Jul-02-05 05:18 PM Response to Original message |
11. I understood that part |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
autorank
![]() |
Tue Jul-05-05 03:39 AM Response to Original message |
29. And to think US Counts Votes almost fell apart, right here on DU. |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
Nederland
![]() |
Wed Jul-06-05 12:54 PM Response to Original message |
30. I must be out of it |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
Time for change
![]() |
Thu Jul-07-05 04:14 PM Response to Reply #30 |
31. They split apart |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
Nederland
![]() |
Thu Jul-07-05 08:38 PM Response to Reply #31 |
32. Which four are left? (nt) |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
Time for change
![]() |
Fri Jul-08-05 06:39 AM Response to Reply #32 |
33. I need to word that differently |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
Fly by night
![]() |
Fri Jul-15-05 09:45 AM Response to Original message |
35. With every new USCV "update", their credibility drops another notch. |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
TruthIsAll
![]() |
Fri Jul-15-05 10:45 AM Response to Reply #35 |
36. Not true, Fly By Night . USCV is updating and refining their analysis. |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
Fly by night
![]() |
Fri Jul-15-05 11:36 AM Response to Reply #36 |
37. It's not about the math -- it's about the perception of inexactitude. |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
TruthIsAll
![]() |
Fri Jul-15-05 12:38 PM Response to Reply #37 |
38. Perception of inexactitude? Since when is any statistical analysis |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
Fly by night
![]() |
Fri Jul-15-05 01:03 PM Response to Reply #38 |
40. No time to get in a pissing contest with you now. I've been PMed... |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
borealowl
![]() |
Fri Jul-15-05 12:55 PM Response to Original message |
39. It's way too dry.... |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
borealowl
![]() |
Fri Jul-15-05 01:44 PM Response to Original message |
41. I mean...who can read this? |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
TruthIsAll
![]() |
Fri Jul-15-05 03:36 PM Response to Reply #41 |
43. Exactly - and welcome to DU. |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
autorank
![]() |
Fri Jul-15-05 06:05 PM Response to Reply #41 |
44. This an easy read, comprehensive and full of great analysis. |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
Bill Bored
![]() |
Fri Jul-15-05 10:04 PM Response to Reply #41 |
47. No the concessions didn't help. |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
autorank
![]() |
Tue Jul-19-05 07:42 PM Response to Reply #47 |
88. Pro-democracy underground (USA) v. Secret oligarchical pollocracy (EM) |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
johnmilton
![]() |
Thu Jul-21-05 01:13 AM Response to Reply #88 |
92. creationism vs. election fraud |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
autorank
![]() |
Thu Jul-21-05 01:41 AM Response to Reply #92 |
93. johnmilton, Welcome to DU!!! |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
johnmilton
![]() |
Thu Jul-21-05 10:50 PM Response to Reply #93 |
96. teaching the 04 election |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
autorank
![]() |
Fri Jul-22-05 06:39 PM Response to Reply #96 |
97. How luck your students are!!!!! Great, I'll read these two again. Thanks |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
foo_bar
![]() |
Thu Jul-21-05 01:53 PM Response to Reply #92 |
94. because the right lives in the Dark Ages, so should we? |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
johnmilton
![]() |
Thu Jul-21-05 10:38 PM Response to Reply #94 |
95. framing the 04 election issue |
Printer Friendly | Permalink | | Top |
DU
AdBot (1000+ posts) ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
Sat Jun 10th 2023, 07:55 PM Response to Original message |
Advertisements [?] |
Top |
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform |
![]() |
Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators
Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.
Home | Discussion Forums | Journals | Store | Donate
About DU | Contact Us | Privacy Policy
Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.
© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC