EXIT POLL ANALYSIS THREADS - 6/14/05 Update

[TruthIsAll]

EXIT POLL ANALYSIS THREADS - 6/14/05 Update

My Election Model projections:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/


National Exit Poll
2:05pm Nov.3, 13660 Respondents

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

National Exit Poll
12:22am Nov. 3, 13047 Respondents
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=265121

National Exit Poll
7:38pm Nov 2, 11027 Respondents
http://www.exitpollz.org/CNN_national2.htm

National Exit Poll Timeline (pdf):

11/2/04, 3:59pm 8349 respondents: Kerry 51-Bush 48
http://www.exitpollz.org/mitof4zone/US2004G_3737_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

11/2/04, 7:33pm 11027 respondents: Kerry 51-Bush 48
http://www.exitpollz.org/mitof4zone/US2004G_3798_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

11/3/04, 12:22am 13047 respondents: Kerry 51-Bush 48
‘
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=265121

11/3/04, 1:25pm 13660 respondents: Kerry 48-Bush 51
http://www.exitpollz.org/mitof4zone/US2004G_3970_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf


ELECTION 2004: THE COMPLETE GRAPHICAL REFERENCE
Edited on Sun Apr-03-05 01:57 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x352164

ELECTION INCIDENT REPORTING SYSTEM (EIRS)
https://voteprotect.org/index.php?display=EIRMapNation&tab=ALL


OPTIMIZER: EXIT POLL RESPONSE PROBABILITY ANALYSIS
Edited on Mon Jun-13-05 08:19 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x377745


LET'S RUN THE OPTIMIZER ASSUMING RELUCTANT KERRY RESPONDERS (rKr)
Edited on Sun Jun-12-05 09:52 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=377613#377846


What are the odds?
Edited on Sat Jun-11-05 05:26 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x377140


POLL BAD, VOTE COUNT GOOD: The RW (M)ost (O)utrageous (E)xcrement
Edited on Sun Jun-12-05 12:25 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x377263


EXIT POLL ALPHA OPTIMIZER: ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM BUSH AND KERRY VOTE% SHOW...
Edited on Sat Jun-11-05 09:05 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x377029


HERE IS WHAT BUSH NEEDED TO DO IN ORDER TO WIN 51.23%
Edited on Sat Jun-11-05 12:56 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x377073


QUANTS: To match WPE = - 6.77%, Optimizer needs wtd alpha >= 1.15
Edited on Fri Jun-10-05 02:22 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x376814


ANY OF YOU QUANTS CARE TO COMMENT ON THIS?
Edited on Thu Jun-09-05 11:01 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x376379

OPTIMIZER: Assume the PLAUSIBLE scenario that the exit polls were RIGHT
Edited on Wed Jun-08-05 02:20 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x376182


TO BAIMAN, FEBBLE, OTOH, TFC, O'DELL, etc: IS rBr PLAUSIBLE?
Edited on Sun Jun-05-05 04:15 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x375366


WHAT IS THE EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZER TELLING US ABOUT rBr?
Edited on Sun Jun-05-05 10:15 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=375270#

ENTER YOUR OWN EXIT POLL MODEL INPUTS TO HELP DEBUNK rBr.
Edited on Sat Jun-04-05 05:00 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x375074


EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL: Bush needed 55.2% of refusers
Edited on Sat Jun-04-05 02:33 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x374958


Exit Poll Response Optimization Analysis (Max/min Kerry/Bush vote%)
Edited on Wed Jun-01-05 11:43 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x374165


Non-linear optimization (Excel "Solver") proves rBr is Null and Void
Edited on Tue May-31-05 02:27 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x373889


AVG OF 80,000 EXIT POLL RESPONSE CURVE SIMULATIONS: KERRY BY 6 MIL VOTES!
Edited on Mon May-30-05 09:34 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x373826


IMPLAUSIBLE rBr: I just ran a 100,000 trial simulation...
Edited on Mon May-30-05 07:15 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x373725

Poll question: Which of these facts convinced you that the election was stolen?
Edited on Fri May-27-05 10:06 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x373210


Census/Exit Poll Gender Vote Probability Analysis
Edited on Sat May-28-05 12:51 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x373414


2-3 MILLION LOST KERRY VOTES? CENSUS: 125.7MM; RECORDED: 122.3MM!
Edited on Thu May-26-05 05:21 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x372831

CENSUS DATA MATCHED NATIONAL EXIT POLL WEIGHTS(12:22AM, 13047 SAMPLE)
Edited on Fri May-27-05 07:50 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x373187


The Miracle of Coogan's Bluff (1951) vs the Miracle of Bush's Bluff (2004)
Edited on Thu May-26-05 12:42 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=372634&mesg_id=372634

A Long Trip Down the Denial River of Doubt
Edited on Wed May-25-05 10:13 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=372599&mesg_id=372599

Another probability analysis to illustrate why rBr is implausible....
Edited on Wed May-25-05 01:51 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x372443


Do they really expect us to believe all that nonsense?
Edited on Tue May-24-05 08:03 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=372254&mesg_id=372254

A new Poly Sci Statistic:The sBr (Shy Bush Responder) differential
Edited on Tue May-24-05 03:11 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x372040

IS rBr STILL BREATHING? THE REQUIRED BUSH % OF REFUSERS IS IMPOSSIBLE!
Edited on Sun May-22-05 01:34 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x371584

THE EAST WAS THE rBr BEAST
Edited on Sun May-22-05 11:20 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x371776

Exposing the Myths: One by One
Edited on Sat May-21-05 10:30 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x371420

rBr: The Bush voter equivalent of WMD. There's no there there.
Edited on Wed May-18-05 10:39 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x370703

Prob (86 of 88 screens switch K to B): 1 in 79,010,724,999,066,700,000,000
Edited on Sun May-15-05 10:23 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x369374

AAPOR? ESI? Does Not Prove Fraud?
Edited on Sun May-15-05 09:17 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x369349

YOU WANT KERRY? PRESS RIGHT HERE. DON'T YOU WORRY
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x369552

NON-RESPONSE BIAS? HERE'S WHY IT HURT KERRY MORE THAN BUSH..
Edited on Sat May-14-05 05:46 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x369073

To Believe that Bush won.....
Edited on Fri May-13-05 10:21 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x368702
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

PROBABILITY ANALYSIS: THE RBR HYPOTHESIS IS VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE!
Edited on Sat May-14-05 01:34 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x368977


Can someone explain this RBR inconsistency?
Edited on Sat May-14-05 07:05 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x368931


Freeper Logic: aBr, the Alzheimer Bush Responder Hypothesis
Edited on Fri May-13-05 10:38 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x368831

MORE NUMERICAL EVIDENCE KERRY WON: 2004 TURNOUT SCENARIOS
Edited on Thu May-12-05 08:24 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x368350


Probability that 86 of 88 BBV's would switch Kerry votes to Bush?
Edited on Thu May-12-05 10:43 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x368585


3 NAT. EXIT POLL GRAPHS: TIMELINE, KERRY MARGINS, VOTER TURNOUT
Edited on Thu May-12-05 09:18 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x368562

We should all rejoice in the promotion of the rBr Liepothesis.
Edited on Wed May-11-05 03:07 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=368143&mesg_id=368143


WHERE DID BUSH FIND 13 MILLION NEW VOTES?
Edited on Tue May-10-05 09:00 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x367638

BYE, BYE rBr: IMPLAUSIBLE VOTER TURNOUT SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Edited on Tue May-10-05 02:40 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x367600

Could 14.4% of Gore voters have voted for Bush?
Edited on Sun May-08-05 09:32 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=367160

YOU DECIDE: DO THESE FIVE SCENARIOS MAKE rBr IRRELEVANT?
Edited on Sun May-08-05
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=367129

Even assuming rBr, it takes a MIRACLE to reverse Kerry's 51-48% margin
Edited on Sat May-07-05 02:30 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=367001


Our Evidence vs. Their Evidence
Edited on Sat May-07-05 01:22 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=366974


Yes, the Reluctant Republican Responder (3%) was a KERRY voter!
Edited on Sat May-07-05 03:05 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=366880

FEBBLE: WILL YOU COMMENT ON THIS MYSTERY?
Edited on Tue May-03-05 09:28 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=365850


The Reluctant Gore Responder (RGR)
Edited on Mon May-02-05 01:50 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x365133

A PUZZLE: THE NATIONAL VS. STATE GENDER DEMOGRAPHIC MATCH-UP
Edited on Sat Apr-30-05 01:22 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x364702

12:22am State Exit Poll Gender Breakout: Kerry won 329 EV
Edited on Sat Apr-30-05 04:00 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x364645

HOW KERRY WON OHIO BY 51-48%...
Edited on Fri Apr-29-05 10:37 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x364450

ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE NEP TIMELINE
Edited on Thu Apr-28-05 07:25 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x363938

THE 13047 NATIONAL EXIT POLL CONFIRMS THE STATE EXIT POLLS WITHIN .06%
Edited on Sun Apr-24-05 11:44 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x362208

STATE / NATIONAL EXIT POLL ANALYSIS BY REGION
Edited on Sun Apr-24-05 03:10 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x362106

A TIA CHALLENGE: REFUTE THESE ODDS!
Edited on Sat Apr-23-05 06:16 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x361819

Z-score Probability (Bush Z>1 in 35 states): 1 in 4500 trillion
Edited on Sat Apr-23-05 01:28 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x361736

Red Shift: Z-scores and Probabilities. Take a deep breath.
Edited on Sat Apr-23-05 03:26 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=361617&mesg_id=361617

The Exit Poll Gender Demographic: Another Smoking Gun?
Edited on Tue Apr-19-05 09:51 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=359779

Truth: 0 to 13,047; Fiction: 13,048 - 13,660
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=359789

The MoE Formula: Mitofsky agrees its 1.0% for over 8000 respondents
Edited on Fri Apr-15-05 05:15 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=357345

Bush Exit Poll Job Approval: A smoking gun?
Edited on Tue Apr-19-05 02:07 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=359320

TIMELINE
Edited on Tue Apr-19-05 02:30 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=359332

U.S. General Election Poll-7:37pm: "Estimates NOT for on-air use"
Edited on Tue Apr-19-05 12:31 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=359287

FL Optiscans vs. Touchscreens: Prob of 9% discrepancy (1 in 12.7 trillion)
Edited on Mon Apr-18-05 02:42 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x358495

Jan 3 post on the IMPOSSIBLE How Voted weight is NOT from me!
Edited on Sun Apr-17-05 04:29 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=358194

The National Exit Poll: A Tragedy in Three Acts
Edited on Fri Apr-15-05 10:59 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x357758

Calc the SAMPLE-SIZE for any MoE and confidence level
Edited on Thu Apr-14-05 09:53 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x356832

National Exit Poll Analysis: Using FACTUAL Historic Data
Edited on Mon Apr-11-05 10:58 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x355250

I'M REALLY CONFUSED. WAS THERE A (N)ATURAL (B)USH (R)ESPONDER? Edited on Sun Apr-10-05 02:10 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x354894

WHICH IS IT: RBR OR EBR ?
Edited on Sat Apr-09-05 09:35 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x354809

OK, THERE WAS THIS BUSH "BANDWAGON" EFFECT...
Edited on Fri Apr-08-05 09:49 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x354407

RELUCTANT BUSH RESPONDER OR REINCARNATED BUSH RESPONDER?
Edited on Mon Apr-04-05 03:22 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x352359

Another National Exit Poll Mystery: The Gender Vote. Can you solve it?
Edited on Sun Apr-03-05 11:24 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x352276


Another Exit Poll Mystery: Party ID. Can you solve it?
Edited on Sat Apr-02-05 02:52 PM http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x352065

From Selection 2000 to 2004 (NEP): Voted, Died, Reborn, Did Not Vote
Edited on Fri Apr-01-05 09:46 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x351954

IF YOU BELIEVE THESE 5 IRREFUTABLE FACTS, THEN YOU MUST ALSO BELIEVE...
Edited on Fri Apr-01-05 12:58 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x351776

A 9TH GRADE ALGEBRAIC SMOKING GUN
Edited on Fri Apr-01-05 01:42 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x351674

THE FINAL EXIT POLL MYSTERY: THE IMPOSSIBLE 43% Bush / 37% Gore MIX...
Edited on Wed Mar-30-05 11:13 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x350713

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: THE KERRY NATIONAL VOTE MARGIN OF VICTORY...
Tue Mar-29-05 08:35 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x350526

View the Mathematical FACTS for the TRUTH...
Edited on Tue Mar-29-05 10:38 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x350334

FASTEN SEAT BELTS. THIS IS THE CLINCHER.
Edited on Tue Mar-29-05 01:47 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x350225

WORTH REPEATING: FINAL NEP PADDED MINIMUM OF 3.85 MIL TO BUSH VOTE
Edited on Mon Mar-28-05 02:18 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x349796


KERRY WINS 57 OF 60 NEP SCENARIOS: NEW VOTERS VS. 2000 VOTER TURNOUT
Edited on Sat Mar-26-05 11:21 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x349444

THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO: KERRY WON BY 7 MILLION VOTES
Edited on Sat Mar-26-05 06:16 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x349275

Reluctant Bush Responder? Or Resurrected Bush Responder?
Edited on Fri Mar-25-05 05:43 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x348688

Part IV. To believe Bush won the election, you must also believe …
Edited on Thu Mar-24-05 12:01 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x348022

HOW TO RED-SHIFT THE NATIONAL EXIT POLL IN 6 EASY STEPS...
Edited on Thu Mar-24-05 11:44 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=348456#

BASED ON THE U.S. ANNUAL DEATH RATE OF 8.7 PER 1000...
Edited on Mon Mar-21-05 09:30 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x347144

100% ABSOLUTE PROOF: FINAL NEP OVERSTATED BUSH VOTE BY AT LEAST 2 MILLION VOTES
Edited on Mon Mar-21-05 02:01 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x346932

THE MAGIC 613 FINAL RESPONDENTS: FROM 13047 TO 13660
Edited on Mon Mar-21-05 10:26 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x346890

FOUR VERY RED FLAGS....
Edited on Sat Mar-19-05 01:38 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x346284

THE NATIONAL EXIT POLL TIMELINE: THE FULL STORY IN 3 GRAPHS
Edited on Sat Mar-19-05 09:22 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=346481

PROBABILITY TABLE: Exit Poll Margin of Error vs. Vote Deviation
Edited on Thu Mar-17-05 12:37 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x345177

The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy: Explained
Edited on Tue Mar-15-05 01:23 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=344005

A SUMMARY EXIT POLL MATHEMATICAL FORMULATION
Edited on Mon Mar-14-05 10:54 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x343448

IF THIS PRELIMINARY NEP WEIGHT WAS CORRECT, WHY WAS IT CHANGED?
Edited on Sun Mar-13-05 04:53 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x343168

Lynn Landes, this is for you.
Edited on Sun Mar-13-05 06:24 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x343312

THIS EXIT POLL SIMULATION TEST BLOWS AWAY THE NEDERLAND "PROOF"
Edited on Sat Mar-12-05 12:51 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x342913

The Recorded votes and Final Exit poll are bogus.
Edited on Fri Mar-11-05 10:29 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x342689

GRAPHS: 1988-2004 Prelim. Nat. Exit Poll - Trend reversal in 2004
Edited on Thu Mar-10-05 11:11 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x341940

A Mathematical proof: Preliminary Exit polls are accurate
Edited on Thu Mar-10-05 09:01 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x341540

The Nat Exit Poll Crime Line: 7:58pm(K) to 12:22am (K) to 2:04pm (B)
Edited on Mon Mar-07-05 11:55 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x340029

Check. Mate.
Edited on Sun Mar-06-05 04:03 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=339246

NATIONAL EXIT POLL: PRELIMINARY TO FINAL - WHAT HAPPENED?
Edited on Sat Feb-26-05 01:23 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x334949

MITOFSKY EXIT POLL CAVEAT: "FINAL PERCENTAGES MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY"
Edited on Fri Feb-25-05 12:02 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=334152

SO IT COMES TO THIS: DO YOU BELIEVE 13,047 OR 13,660?
Edited on Mon Feb-21-05 09:40 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x331601

PRE-ELECTION STATE POLLS vs. EXIT POLLS vs. ACTUALS
Edited on Sat Feb-19-05 12:02 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=330449

BLOWN TO SMITHEREENS: MITOFSKY'S "RELUCTANT BUSH RESPONDER" THEORY
Edited on Sat Feb-12-05 12:46 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x325206

THE MOST DEVASTATING STATISTIC OF ALL: 17% OF THE VOTERS WERE NEW
Edited on Fri Feb-11-05 01:05 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=323939

1/23 UPDATE: NATIONAL EXIT POLL DEMOGRAPHIC STATISTICS
Edited on Sun Jan-23-05 01:50 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=301075

Bush probabilities for Party-ID weights in the National Exit Poll
Edited on Sun Jan-16-05 04:29 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=287175

[AtLiberty]

1. Great summary...thanks!

;)

[autorank]

2. Very Timely--Will the test be open book? **Good one to RECOMMEND

And, no extra points for meaningless debate on issues that have been long settled.

Thanks for this!

:kick: RECOMMEND

[kster]

3. kick.nt

[Peace Patriot]

4. Thanks, TIA! It's going into my media blast on the CA VSPP hearing...

...June 16, and to CA legislators.

Recommended!

[VolcanoJen]

5. Farhad Manjoo's latest Salon article links to you.

To this very thread, in fact.

Here's the link to the article, probably subscription only:

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2005/06/15/exit_polls/index.html

Cute Title:

No exit - A persuasive new theory explains why Kerry beat Bush in Election Day exit polls. Just don't expect those still crying "fraud" to believe it.

:eyes:

Here's the part where this thread is mentioned:

Exit poll results were just one item in a long bill of election-fraud particulars that folks began passing around in the aftermath of the election. But over the past seven months, the exits have proved more enduring to the election-was-stolen movement than many of the other early indicators of fraud. Lefty bastions like Democratic Underground are aflame with discussions purporting to prove how the exits show Bush didn't really win.

Again, another healthy :eyes: from me.

Just thought you'd want to know that you're aflame among the lefty bastions, darlin'! ;-)

[mirandapriestly]

6. They really go to a lot of lengths

to make up complex theories to explain what is obvious , Kerry won the exit polls.

[dzika]

8. Can you post more text from that article?

Salon is complaining about by browser and won't let me see the page.

Thanks!

[applegrove]

7. I still don't understand why it has to be exuberant Lefty pollsters.

Why put that distinction or frame in his explanation? What about exuberant right wing liars told to lie to pollsters outside the election site? What about under-reporting right wing voters told to 'not talk' to any pollsters. What about bus-loads of conservative workers bussed into election site after election site and told to lie to pollsters? Could be so many things. The fact that the polling sample outside the election sites themselves can be messed with in so many ways and is therefor not a scientific sample... should be highlighted. Don't blame the pollsters alone and give them emotions you were not there to witness. They likely were not panting like dogs when they saw some woman in Birkenstock's and messy hair approach? They were just asking folk the same question again and again. And they likely had on happy faces at the time.

The fact that he applies some emotion to the outcome of the polls by applying it to one part of the participants in the polls (democrats & pollsters and not right wing responders or liars or role-players) - is pretty much just his take.

Sampling outside a voting station is not scientific. At least not these days. That seems to be a trend we should pay attention to.

[kster]

9. kick.nt

[Melissa G]

10. kick for greatness!

[autorank]

11. KICK for the Truth is all!

:kick::kick::kick::kick::kick::kick:

[dchill]

12. fresh kick n/t