Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

LET'S RUN THE OPTIMIZER ASSUMING RELUCTANT KERRY RESPONDERS (rKr)

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
 
TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-12-05 08:50 PM
Original message
LET'S RUN THE OPTIMIZER ASSUMING RELUCTANT KERRY RESPONDERS (rKr)
Edited on Sun Jun-12-05 08:52 PM by TruthIsAll
Why not?

If they want to assume rBr, we can assume the more plausible
rKr hypothesis.

If you were a Republican, wouldn't you be somewhat reluctant
to tell someone you just voted for Kerry, especially when
there are fellow church-goers nearby?

EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
6/12/05 9:04 PM							
							
Objective:
Calculate the precinct partisanship response required in the
13047 National Exit poll (which Kerry won by 50.8-48.2%) for
Kerry to win 52.50% of the 2-party vote, assuming a reluctant
Kerry responder.

Given the following:
1) Reluctant Kerry Responder (rKr)
Alpha = .96 (48 Kerry responders for every 50 Bush exit poll
responders).

2)53% aggregate response rate
3)Edison- Mitofsky partisanship precinct mix 

The Optimizer produced the following results which are very
close to the 13047 respondent National Exit Poll:
Kerry 51.52%
Bush 48.48%

The corresponding winning Kerry margin based on the
52.50%-47.50% split of 121 million total votes is: 
Kerry 63.52 mm
Bush 57.47 mm

**********************************************						
Precinct Variable Input Range (Min, Max) Constraints:         
                                         							
1-Response rates: equate to weighted average                  
                                 							
2-Kerry 2-party percentage vote                               
                 							
3-Alpha (K/B): equate to weighted average                     
                                 							
4-WPE: input  (optional: Min= Max= E-M)													
							
TOTAL VOTE % 							
Kerry: 52.50%						
Bush:	47.50%						

Actual Bush	vote: 51.23%						
							
WEIGHTED AVERAGE							
Response 	53.0%						
Alpha (K/B)	0.960						
							
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS							
1250	Strong Bush		Strong Kerry				
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		
							
KERRY WIN%							
Min	0%	25%	45%	55%	75%		
Max	25%	45%	55%	75%	100%		
							
RESPONSE							
Min	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%		
Max	65%	65%	65%	65%	65%		
							
ALPHA (K/B)							
Min	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10		
Max	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00		
							
WPE							
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Min	-10.0%	-10.0%	-10.0%	-10.0%	-10.0%		
Max	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%		
							
*************************************************
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY							
							
		EXIT POLL / VOTE DEVIATION					
							
	Poll	Vote	Diff		Poll	Vote	Diff (mm)
Kerry	51.52%	52.50%	0.98%		62.34	63.52	1.18
Bush	48.48%	47.50%	-0.98%		58.66	57.47	-1.18
							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Number	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Weights	3.2%	33.2%	43.2%	13.2%	7.2%		100.0%
							
Resp.	48.4%	63.1%	45.0%	48.4%	65.0%		53.0%
Dev	-4.6%	10.1%	-8.0%	-4.6%	12.0%		0%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.05	0.96	0.94	0.99	1.00		0.96
Dev	9.0%	0.1%	-2.6%	3.5%	4.4%		0%
							
VOTES							
Kerry	0.0%	44.5%	47.9%	75.0%	99.3%		52.50%
Bush	100.0%	55.5%	52.1%	25.0%	0.7%		47.50%
							
EXIT POLL 							
Kerry	0.0%	43.6%	46.3%	74.8%	99.4%		51.52%
Bush	100.0%	56.4%	53.7%	25.2%	0.6%		48.48%
							
							
WPE	0.0%	1.7%	3.1%	0.5%	-0.2%		1.96%
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Diff	10.0%	7.8%	11.6%	6.4%	-0.5%		8.7%
							
							
*************************************************							
OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Kerry	0.0%	44.5%	47.9%	75.0%	99.3%		52.50%
							
ALPHA	1.05	0.96	0.94	0.99	1.00		0.96
AvgDev	9%	0%	-3%	3%	4%		0%
							
TOTAL							
Kerry	0	184	259	124	89		656
Pct	0.0%	44.5%	47.9%	75.0%	99.3%		52.50%
Bush	40	231	281	41	1		594
Pct	100.0%	55.5%	52.1%	25.0%	0.7%		47.50%
							
							
RESPONDERS							
Total	19	262	243	80	58		663
Pct	48.4%	63.1%	45.0%	48.4%	65.0%		53.00%
							
Kerry	0	114	113	60	58		345
Pct	0.0%	43.6%	46.3%	74.8%	99.4%		51.52%
Bush	19	148	130	20	0		318
Pct	100.0%	56.4%	53.7%	25.2%	0.6%		48.48%
							
REFUSERS							
Total	21	153	297	85	32		587
Pct	51.6%	36.9%	55.0%	51.6%	35.0%		47.00%
							
Kerry	0	70	146	64	31		312
Pct	0.0%	45.9%	49.2%	75.2%	99.1%		53.55%
Bush	21	83	151	21	0		276
Pct	100.0%	54.1%	50.8%	24.8%	0.9%		46.45%
							
							
WPE							
Kv-Bv	-100.0%	-11.1%	-4.2%	50.0%	98.7%		3.04%
Kp-Bp	-100.0%	-12.8%	-7.3%	49.5%	98.9%		7.10%
							
WPE	0.0%	1.7%	3.1%	0.5%	-0.2%		-4.06%
E-M WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
							
2-PARTY VOTE (mm)							
TOTAL	3.87	40.17	52.27	15.97	8.71		121.00
							
Kerry 	0.00	17.86	25.04	11.98	8.65		63.52
Bush	3.87	22.32	27.24	3.99	0.06		57.47
Diff	-3.87	-4.46	-2.20	7.99	8.60		6.05
							
EXIT POLL VOTE (mm)							
Kerry 	0.00	17.51	24.23	11.94	8.66		62.34
Bush	3.87	22.66	28.05	4.03	0.05		58.66
Diff	-3.87	-5.15	-3.82	7.91	8.61		3.68
							
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Melissa G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-12-05 09:13 PM
Response to Original message
1. My thought exactly...The most reluctant responders
would be repubs voting for Kerry....
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-12-05 09:33 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. Melissa, can we get anyone else to add something here...
Maybe it's because the naysayers have nothing left to say.

You would think they would take issue with rKr - but they can't.

WHAT'S GOOD FOR THE GOOSE...
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Melissa G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-12-05 10:24 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. We can kick for folks to see it n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-12-05 09:23 PM
Response to Original message
2. THIS RUN IS MORE REALISTIC. RESTRICT THE NON-PARTISAN MIDDLE TO 49-51%
Edited on Sun Jun-12-05 09:24 PM by TruthIsAll
EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL				
6/12/05 10:10 PM							
							
In this run, Kerry wins the exit poll with 51.49%
The aggregate WPE (error) is	2.03%, compared to the 6.77%
given by  Mitofsky which helps explain his view on the rBr
(cough) differential response.	

The most partisan Bush precincts (alpha = 1.05)shows some
reluctance on the part of Repubs for Bush; these are the
hard-core Bush voters.
The middle three categories are where the reluctant Kerry
voters were hiding.	
							
TOTAL VOTE % 							
Kerry 52.50%						
Bush	47.50%						
Actual Bush	51.23%						
							
WEIGHTED AVERAGE							
Response 	53.0%						
Alpha (K/B)	0.960						
							
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS							
1250	Strong Bush		Strong Kerry				
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		
							
KERRY WIN%							
Min	0%	35%	49%	51%	65%		
Max	35%	49%	51%	65%	100%		
							
RESPONSE							
Min	45%	45%	45%	45%	45%		
Max	65%	65%	65%	65%	65%		
							
ALPHA (K/B)							
Min	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10		
Max	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00		
							
WPE							
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Min	-10.0%	-10.0%	-10.0%	-10.0%	-10.0%		
Max	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%		
							
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY							
							
		EXIT POLL / VOTE DEVIATION					
							
	Poll	Vote	Diff		Poll	Vote	Diff (mm)
Kerry	51.49%	52.50%	1.01%		62.30	63.52	1.23
Bush	48.51%	47.50%	-1.01%		58.70	57.47	-1.23
							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Number	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Weights	3.2%	33.2%	43.2%	13.2%	7.2%		100.0%
							
Resp.	48.4%	63.1%	45.0%	48.4%	65.0%		53.0%
Dev	-4.6%	10.1%	-8.0%	-4.6%	12.0%		0%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.05	0.96	0.94	0.99	1.00		0.96
Dev	9.0%	0.1%	-2.6%	3.5%	4.4%		0%
							
VOTES							
Kerry	0.0%	45.3%	50.3%	65.0%	99.5%		52.50%
Bush	100.0%	54.7%	49.7%	35.0%	0.5%		47.50%
							
EXIT POLL 							
Kerry	0.0%	44.4%	48.6%	64.8%	99.6%		51.49%
Bush	100.0%	55.6%	51.4%	35.2%	0.4%		48.51%
							
							
WPE	0.0%	1.8%	3.3%	0.4%	-0.2%		2.03%
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Diff	10.0%	7.9%	11.8%	6.3%	-0.5%		8.8%
							
							
							
OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Kerry	0.0%	45.3%	50.3%	65.0%	99.5%		52.50%
							
ALPHA	1.05	0.96	0.94	0.99	1.00		0.96
AvgDev	9%	0%	-3%	3%	4%		0%
							
TOTAL							
Kerry	0	188	271	107	90		656
Pct	0.0%	45.3%	50.3%	65.0%	99.5%		52.50%
Bush	40	227	269	58	0		594
Pct	100.0%	54.7%	49.7%	35.0%	0.5%		47.50%
							
							
RESPONDERS							
Total	19	262	243	80	58		663
Pct	48.4%	63.1%	45.0%	48.4%	65.0%		53.00%
							
Kerry	0	116	118	52	58		345
Pct	0.0%	44.4%	48.6%	64.8%	99.6%		51.49%
Bush	19	145	125	28	0		318
Pct	100.0%	55.6%	51.4%	35.2%	0.4%		48.51%
							
REFUSERS							
Total	21	153	297	85	32		587
Pct	51.6%	36.9%	55.0%	51.6%	35.0%		47.00%
							
Kerry	0	72	153	55	31		312
Pct	0.0%	46.8%	51.6%	65.2%	99.3%		53.58%
Bush	21	82	144	30	0		276
Pct	100.0%	53.2%	48.4%	34.8%	0.7%		46.42%
							
							
WPE							
Kv-Bv	-100.0%	-9.4%	0.5%	30.0%	99.0%		2.97%
Kp-Bp	-100.0%	-11.2%	-2.7%	29.6%	99.2%		7.17%
							
WPE	0.0%	1.8%	3.3%	0.4%	-0.2%		-4.19%
E-M WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
							
2-PARTY VOTE (mm)							
TOTAL	3.87	40.17	52.27	15.97	8.71		121.00
							
Kerry 	0.00	18.20	26.28	10.38	8.67		63.52
Bush	3.87	21.98	25.99	5.59	0.04		57.47
Diff	-3.87	-3.78	0.28	4.79	8.63		6.05
							
EXIT POLL VOTE (mm)							
Kerry 	0.00	17.84	25.43	10.35	8.68		62.30
Bush	3.87	22.33	26.84	5.62	0.03		58.70
Diff	-3.87	-4.48	-1.42	4.73	8.65		3.60
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-13-05 07:19 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. What's good for the rBr is good for the rKr....
.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-15-05 03:17 AM
Response to Original message
6. KICK.NT
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Tue Aug 22nd 2017, 05:42 PM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC