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WHAT IS THE EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZER TELLING US ABOUT rBr?

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 09:04 AM
Original message
WHAT IS THE EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZER TELLING US ABOUT rBr?
Edited on Sun Jun-05-05 10:04 AM by TruthIsAll
THESE ARE THE KEY RESULTS FROM THE OPTIMIZATION:

Target: Bush wins 51.23% of the 2-party target vote 

Based on the input 53% weighted average response rate and the
1.12 K/B response ratio (alpha):

1. Kerry won 52.16% of the 2-party exit poll

2. Bush needed 55.06% of refusers to MATCH his vote

3. Bush voters had to responded MOST HEAVILY in KERRY
terrritory. Alpha ranged from an IMPLAUSIBLE 1.20 to 1.41 in
Bush precincts to near 1.0 in Kerry precincts. 

ARE WE REALLY EXPECTED TO BELIEVE THAT?

ARE WE TO BELIEVE THAT BUSH VOTERS WERE EXTREMELY RELUCTANT TO
RESPOND IN PARTISAN BUSH PRECINCTS, BUT NOT SO IN PARTISAN
KERRY PRECINCTS?

IN LIGHT OF THE OPTIMIZER'S OUTPUT, HOW CAN rBr EVER BE
CONSIDERED PLAUSIBLE?


EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL			
			
Objective: Determine values of constrained variables required
to derive the target Kerry/Bush split using aggregate exit
poll response data.			
			
TARGET INPUT			
Kerry	48.77%		
Bush	51.23%		
			
Constraints on Precinct Variables:			
1-Response rate: equals weighted average within (MinW, MaxW)	
2-Kerry win percentages constrained to the range (Min, Max)
3-Alpha (K/B response ratio) constrained to weighted average
4-WPE set to E-M actuals (default) or user input. 			
			
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS			
							
53.0%	Wtd Average Response rate 						
1.120	Wtd Average Alpha (K/B )						
							
							
1250	Strong Bush		Strong Kerry			
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		Avg
							
Kerry Win Pct:							
MinW	10%	20%	40%	60%	80%		37.92%
MaxW	20%	40%	60%	80%	100%		57.60%
Response rates:							
MinR	50%	50%	50%	50%	50%		50.00%
MaxR	70%	70%	70%	70%	70%		70.00%
							
WPE  	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Actual	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
							
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT							
							
Precincts							
Number	40	415	540	165	90		
Resp.	50.0%	59.0%	50.0%	50.0%	50.0%		53.0%
K/B	1.41	1.20	1.08	1.04	1.00		1.12
							
EXIT POLL							
Kerry:52.16% of exit poll responders
Bush:	47.84% "

Bush needed	55.06% of refusers to MATCH his vote	
							
Kerry Deviation							
Vote-Exit	-3.39%						
							

							
							
OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK	.	Total
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Kerry	14%	20%	55%	78%	98%		48.33%
							
K/B	1.41	1.20	1.08	1.04	1.00		1.12
							
RESPONDERS							
Total	20	245	270	83	45		662
Pct	50%	59%	50%	50%	50%		53.0%
							
Kerry	4	59	161	67	44		335
Pct	20%	24%	60%	81%	98%		52.2%
Bush	16	186	109	16	1		327
Pct	80%	76%	40%	19%	2%		47.8%
							
REFUSERS							
Total	20	170	270	82	45		587
Pct	50%	41%	50%	50%	50%		47.0%
							
Kerry	2	28	138	62	44		275
Pct	10%	17%	51%	75%	98%		44.9%
Bush	18	142	132	21	1		313
Pct	90%	83%	49%	25%	2%		55.1%
							
VOTE							
Kerry	6	87	299	129	88		610
Pct	15.2%	21.0%	55.4%	78.1%	98.2%		48.77%
Bush	34	328	241	36	2		640
Pct	84.8%	79.0%	44.6%	21.9%	1.8%		51.23%
							
WPE							
Kv-Bv	-69.5%	-58.0%	10.8%	56.2%	96.4%		-2.46%
Kp-Bp	-59.5%	-51.9%	19.3%	62.1%	96.1%		4.31%
WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
-Input	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Diff	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%		0.00%

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 09:47 AM
Response to Original message
1. THE GRAPH
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EST Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 09:51 AM
Response to Original message
2. Wow TIA!
Thou art, indeed, exceptional and amazing,
As a non-statistician with a minor in algebra/trig, I must admit my head starts feeling fuzzy when I dig into your evidence. However, you have oiled things up considerably and I thank you. Is there a name or category (Forensic Trend Analysis? Statistical Forensics?) for your work?
Does Rep. Conyers have a copy, along with a distillation and a distillation of the distillation - in large block letters?
Who else has the strongest hands with a chance to get the most attention?
Kennedy, Boxer, of course. Obama is no great brain and inexperienced but his fair-haired boy status may get him an audience and right now he needs a dramatic coup and the attendant national attention on integrity.
Thanks, again - today you've pushed my incipient Alzheimer's back a week.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 09:59 AM
Response to Original message
3. IN THIS OPTIMIZATION, KERRY PRECINCT WIN % ARE NOT CONSTRAINED
Edited on Sun Jun-05-05 10:03 AM by TruthIsAll
They are allowed to vary anywhere from 0-100% in each
precinct.
And the results are very similar to the main thread:
Alpha is 1.22 Bush precincts, but just 1.0-1.04 in strong
Kerry precincts.

EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL			
			
Objective: Determine values of constrained variables required
to derive a target Kerry/Bush percentage split using aggregate
exit poll response data.			
			
TARGET INPUT			
Kerry	48.77%		
Bush	51.23%		
			
Constraints on Precinct Variables:			
1-Response rate: within (MinW, MaxW) with 53% wtd. avverage
2-Kerry win percentages constrained to (0, 100%)			
3-Alpha (K/B response ratio) constrained to 1.12 wtd average
4-WPE set to E-M actuals (default). 			
			
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS			
							
53.0%	Wtd Average Response rate 						
1.120	Wtd Average Alpha (K/B )						
							
							
1250	Strong Bush			Strong Kerry			
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		Avg
							
Kerry Win Pct:							
MinW	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%		0.00%
MaxW	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%		100.00%
Response rates:							
MinR	50%	50%	50%	50%	50%		50.00%
MaxR	70%	70%	70%	70%	70%		70.00%
							
WPE  	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Actual	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
							
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT							
							
Precincts							
Number	40	415	540	165	90		
Resp.	50.0%	57.5%	50.8%	51.1%	50.0%		53.0%
K/B	1.22	1.22	1.08	1.04	1.00		1.12
							
EXIT POLL							
Kerry 	52.15%	of exit poll responders					
Bush	47.85%						
Bush needed	55.05%	of refusers to match his vote					
							
Kerry Deviation							
Vote-Exit	-3.38%						
							

							
							
OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK	.	Total
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Kerry	25%	18%	56%	78%	100%		48.34%
							
K/B	1.22	1.22	1.08	1.04	1.00		1.12
							
RESPONDERS							
Total	20	239	274	84	45		663
Pct	50%	58%	51%	51%	50%		53.0%
							
Kerry	6	52	165	69	45		337
Pct	31%	22%	60%	81%	100%		52.2%
Bush	14	187	109	16	0		326
Pct	69%	78%	40%	19%	0%		47.8%
							
REFUSERS							
Total	20	176	266	81	45		587
Pct	50%	42%	49%	49%	50%		47.0%
							
Kerry	4	26	137	61	45		273
Pct	21%	15%	52%	75%	100%		44.9%
Bush	16	150	129	20	0		315
Pct	79%	85%	48%	25%	0%		55.1%
							
VOTE							
Kerry	10	78	302	129	90		610
Pct	25.6%	18.8%	56.0%	78.3%	99.9%		48.77%
Bush	30	337	238	36	0		640
Pct	74.4%	81.2%	44.0%	21.7%	0.1%		51.23%
							
WPE							
Kv-Bv	-48.8%	-62.5%	12.0%	56.6%	99.7%		-2.46%
Kp-Bp	-38.7%	-56.4%	20.5%	62.4%	99.4%		4.31%
WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
-Input	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Diff	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%		0.01%
							
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stellanoir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 10:45 AM
Response to Original message
4. just always adore your intrepid efforts TIA
but for someone with some rather obtuse mathemagical skills. . .it just simply says to me that the election was totally rigged once again and for the zillionth time.

Seven months have sadly passed since the third election has overtly and most unfortunately transipired in this country which was not been in most of our best interests, or that of most of our kids, or of most of our parents, and we are in deep, deep, sneekers. Nor did any of those elections, in any way represent the will of most of the people, most of the time. IMHO

Seven months have passed and what has been done to ameliorate our utterly pathetic methods of voting in our current situation. . .? . . .

Answer. . . .Diddly squat.

Simplistically, people often speak of the 50/50 divide in this country. Well with my limited skills, I know that only 60% of the eligible voting population actually voted. That means that 40% of the eligible voting population is either not paying attention or are totally disenchanted with this whole disingenuous and outrageously deceitful process. I cannot blame them at all for feeling that way. They may as well spend their time voting incessantly on American Idol or building themselves a yurt.

We are hardly a two dimensional nation. We are a diverse country and truly require somethng far beyond a two dimensional
representation. It's a faux competition, like McDonald's and Burger King, or Coke and Pepsi. Don't we require other flavors?
This is an off shoot of divide and conquer which is best illustrated by "Great Moments in Punditry" on the Daily Show. Pssssst. . .even the kids know it's utterly idiotic.

I wish we had far more parties, to reinvigorate the lively discussion that this country once was, instead of these idiotic shouting matches.

Okay. . . what of the other 60%. Well, as TIA has proven time and time again the 51/48 statistics in favor of * are bogus based on the exit polls and pre-election day polls.

Like many here, I too saw the potential manipulation of the election 2 years before it transpired. Despite all of our Sysiphian efforts, all of our multitudinous efforts of contacting pundits and plutocrats and politicians regarding the potential malfeascense in that upcoming election went completely unabated or totally ignored.

They were responded to by polite and genteel auto response letters saying roughly. . ."Thank you for expressing your concerns. We get so many requests that we can't possibly respond to all of your inquiries. . . . .blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. . .Please donate more of your hard earned money. . ." for absolutely no guarantee of total subterfuge and inaccountability of your precious and lowly votes.

According to pre-election polls, in my dinky blue state, Kerry was leading by over 70% on the day before the election.

Ahhhhh our vote tallies are allegedly "secured" by optical scan machines. I, like a lot of people, thought the biggest threat to democracy was through those nefariously unreliable touch screen voting machines in the swing states. We were wrong. Kerry's vote ended up in the low 60 percentile of the vote here.

I had since learned that the tallying of the vote on optical scanning machines was only scrutinized if a differential of a point spread smalled than approximately 5% applied. Otherwise those gloriously lauded paper ballots go unattended and are summarily chucked. So the tally in my dinky inconsequential blue state were more than likely manipulated by over 10%, presumably just to bolster *'s popular vote and to inevitably nudge the vote tally in favor of his really paltry minions of followers in '06 & '08.

I wonder if that didn't happen nation wide. Actually I know it did thanks to TIA's exacting work.

If only they had micromanged the reconstruction of Iraq as effieciantly as they systematically conducted the disenfrangement of votes in '04, then we would be far better off all the way around.

Ughhhhh.

I sincerely believe in my heart and soul that * has no more than around 20% support of the general population.

Bottom line is. This totally qualifies as taxation without representation. It truly sucks. We think our hands are tied but I deeply feel that they are not. Not as long as TIA keeps typing these stats anyway.

For reference, try googling the declaration of independence and consider recognizing just how far we've fallen and how similar the colonist's complaints against King George the 1st were to the acute oppression to which we are currently subjegated on a daily basis.

It's amazingly exacting.

At least, it is for this 13th generation American.

Let's get creative about reclaiming our democracy.

At least lets ponder it.

Say. . . by maybe. . .er. . .ah. . .the alleged independance day.

Have a nice day.

And TIA, I've always wondered. . .what's up with your retro fonts anyway?

Happy Sunday!
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dchill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-06-05 01:48 PM
Response to Reply #4
7. This also totally qualifies as evidence...
of probable election fraud. The whole Election 2004 debacle is a prime example of how insidious and culpable the national corporate media are in their cozy relationship to the Bush Administration (read Corporate America, read Wall Street, read rich "conservative" interests.)

I watched "live" on CNN and CNN.com on election night as the commentators grieved Bush's loss, while simultaneously the Exit Poll data were "updated" without comment, completely reversing the trend of the results from the whole day.

I am no statistician, nor even a mathematician, but I certainly know a liar when I see one. Or, in this case, a huge conspiracy of lies. I am not a conspiracy theorist, I am a conspiracy witness. We all witnessed as this plot hatched on live TV, but the more naive and gullible of us don' seem to be able to recognize when they are being manipulated.

Reluctant Bush Responder. Clean Skies Initiative. War on Terror. WMD. Mandate.

Crap.
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 01:32 PM
Response to Original message
5. "Are we to believe that * voters were extrememly reluctant to respond
in partisan * precincts, but not so in partisan Kerry precincts?"

Beautiful substantiation of the fallacy of the rBr hypothesis.

Thank you, TIA.


:thumbsup:

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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 10:39 PM
Response to Original message
6. kick.nt
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