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Even assuming rBr, it takes a MIRACLE to reverse Kerry's 51-48% margin

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-07-05 01:18 PM
Original message
Even assuming rBr, it takes a MIRACLE to reverse Kerry's 51-48% margin
Edited on Sat May-07-05 01:30 PM by TruthIsAll
Bush won the popular vote by 62-59 million.

Lets see what had to happen for this to occur, assuming the
rBr hyopthesis. 

We will consider two scenarios, changing National Exit Poll 
A) Party ID weights and 
B) vote percentages 
to see what would be necessary to derive the final Bush
margin.

There are many combinations of alternate scenarios I can run.
I welcome your suggestions.

*****************************************************
National Exit poll
12:22am
13047	respondents
Votes in millions

Kerry won it by 4.5 mm votes (51.4%-47.8%)
				
PARTY ID	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	
Democrat 	38%	9%	91%	0%	
Republican 	35%	92%	8%	0%	
Independent	27%	45%	52%	3%	
	       100%	47.77%	51.42%	0.81%	
Votes      122.26	58.40	62.87	0.99	
	
The odds are 1 in  300 million that Bush could go from 47.77%
to his actual 50.73%			
					
************************************************

rBr Scenario A: 
Keep the Party ID weights constant at 38 Dem/35 Rep/37 Ind
In the prior three elections, it was 39/35/26.

Assume Bush wins an IMPOSSIBLE 100% of Republican voters.
And he gets 9.0% of Democratic voters.

That will do it.
He wins by over 3 million votes.					

      Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	
Dem 	38%	9.0%	91.0%	0.0%	
Rep 	35%	100%	0.0%	0.0%	
Ind	27%	45.0%	52.0%	3.0%	
	100%	50.57%	48.62%	0.81%	
Votes	122.26	61.83	59.44	0.99	
					
*****************************************************								
					
rBr Scenario B: 
Keep the vote percentages constant.
But DRASTICALLY change the Party ID weighting to:
Dem 35%/Rep 39%/ Ind 26%	

That also does it.
				
	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	
Dem    35%	9.0%	91.0%	0.0%	
Rep    39%	92.0%	8.0%	0.0%	
Ind	 26%	45.0%	52.0%	3.0%	
	100%	50.73%	48.49%	0.78%	
Votes	122.26	62.02	59.28	0.95	
					
			
					
	
					
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oldtime dfl_er Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-07-05 01:23 PM
Response to Original message
1. I have to admit I don't fully understand statistics
having been a liberal arts major! But each time you post, I look over your numbers and am newly impressed that the election was stolen. And this means to me that the next election will be stolen too, unless we do something NOW.

www.cafepress.com/showtheworld
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davidgmills Donating Member (651 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-07-05 01:25 PM
Response to Original message
2. Try sex first (nothing sexual intended)
Since gender was something pollsters were to observe about non-responders.
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DanCa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-07-05 01:26 PM
Response to Original message
3. Excellent job at compiling this
Now here's the two questions that I have to ask.

1) What can be done with the info?

2) Did Kerry conceede so early because the Bishops coerced him too?

Still that was an excellent job at putting all the evidence down at in one place. Kudos.
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