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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-06-05 06:40 AM
Original message
THESE NUMBERS TELL THE WHOLE STORY
Edited on Fri May-06-05 06:42 AM by TruthIsAll
		NATIONAL EXIT POLL TIMELINE SUMMARY STATISTICS						
		
	      2-Nov		2-Nov		3-Nov		3-Nov
            4:00pm		7:33pm		12:22am	       1:25pm

Respondents
	        8349		11027		13047		13660	

Kerry precentages
Votes in millions						

CATEGORY    Pct	Vote	Pct	Vote	Pct	Vote	Pct	Vote

GENDER    50.48	61.72	50.78	62.08	50.78	62.08  47.78  58.42
REGION    50.61	61.88	50.84	62.16	50.84	62.16  48.24  58.98
PARTYID   50.62	61.89	50.24	61.42	50.69	61.97	47.89	58.55
IDEOLOGY  50.30	61.50	50.07	61.22	49.85	60.95	47.25	57.77
VOTED2000 51.01	62.36	50.90	62.23	51.41	62.85	48.48	59.27

DECIDED   51.18	62.57	51.42	62.87	51.23	62.63  47.50	58.07
EDUCATION 50.32	61.52	50.34	61.55	50.21	61.39	47.82	58.46
RACE	   50.79	62.10	51.04	62.40	50.94	62.28	47.81	58.45
AGE	   50.44	61.67	50.53	61.78	50.53	61.78	47.96	58.64
INCOME    51.45	62.90	51.01	62.36	51.01 62.36   48.13  58.84

RELIGION  50.82	62.13	50.85	62.17	50.85	62.17	47.99	58.67
MILITARY  50.38	61.59	51.20	62.60	51.20	62.60	48.38	59.15

AVERAGE   50.70	61.99	50.77	62.07	50.80	62.10	47.94	58.61


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Botany Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-06-05 07:05 AM
Response to Original message
1. So Kerry won. When does he take office?
TIA,

So what is your best guess based on all the data you have looked @
what the final vote was and how many votes migrated to bush greater
than the MOE?

Can it be shown? i.e. the vote migration

At what level of confidence?

I worked watching a republican "challenger" and the precinct poll judge
"work together" on 11/2. The # of votes that they got could have been
about 50 to 75 but w/ the data I was hearing nationwide I figured let them
play their little game because it will be a Kerry Landslide. Now I have
come to the conclusion that I was seeing a death by a thousand little cuts
that occurred nationwide too.

thank you for your work
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-06-05 08:31 AM
Response to Reply #1
7. IMPORTANT! HERE IS THE DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN
				KERRY NATIONAL EXIT POLL TIMELINE DETAIL						
										
		4:00pm	7:33pm	12:22am	1:25pm		4:00pm	7:33pm	12:22am	1:25pm
		8349	11027	13047	13660		8349	11027	13047	13660
										
			Category Weighting			Kerry Percentage		
GENDER										
Male 		42	46	46	46		47	47	47	44
Female 		58	54	54	54		53	54	54	51
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.48	50.78	50.78	47.78
VOTE (mm)						61.72	62.08	62.08	58.42
										
REGION										
East		23	22	22	22		58	58	58	56
Midwest		25	26	26	26		50	50	50	48
South		31	31	31	32		44	45	45	42
West		21	21	21	20		53	53	53	50
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.61	50.84	50.84	48.24
VOTE (mm)						61.88	62.16	62.16	58.98
										
PARTY ID										
Democrat 	39	38	38	37		90	90	90	89
Republican 	36	36	35	37		7	7	7	6
Independent	25	26	27	26		52	52	52	49
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.62	50.24	50.69	47.89
VOTE (mm)						61.89	61.42	61.97	58.55

IDEOLOGY										
Liberal 	22	22	22	21		86	87	86	85
Moderate 	45	45	45	45		58	57	57	54
Conservative	33	33	33	34		16	16	16	15
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.3	50.07	49.85	47.25
VOTE (mm)						61.50	61.22	60.95	57.77
										
VOTED IN 2000										
NoVote	        15	17	17	17		62	59	57	54
Gore		39	38	39	37		91	91	91	90
Bush		42	41	41	43		9	9	10	9
Other		4	4	3	3		61	65	71	71
PCT		100	100	100	100		51.01	50.9	51.41	48.48
VOTE (mm)						62.36	62.23	62.85	59.27
										
WHEN DECIDED										
Today 	        6	6	6	5		52	54	53	52
Last3Days 	3	3	3	4		50	54	53	55
Last Week 	2	2	2	2		48	48	48	48
Last Month 	10	10	10	10		61	61	60	54
Before 	        79	79	79	79		50	50	50	46
PCT		100	100	100	100		51.18	51.42	51.23	47.5
VOTE (mm)						62.57	62.87	62.63	58.07
										
EDUCATION										
NoHS		4	4	4	4		50	52	52	50
H.S. 		22	22	22	22		50	51	51	47
College 	30	31	31	32		48	47	47	46
Grad		26	26	26	26		48	49	48	46
PostGrad 	18	17	17	16		58	58	58	55
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.32	50.34	50.21	47.82
VOTE (mm)						61.52	61.55	61.39	58.46
										
RACE										
WM		33	36	36	36		40	41	41	37
WF		44	41	41	41		47	47	47	44
NWM		10	10	10	10		69	70	69	67
NWF		13	13	13	13		77	77	77	75
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.79	51.04	50.94	47.81
VOTE (mm)						62.10	62.40	62.28	58.45
										
AGE										
18-29 	        15	17	17	17		56	56	56	54
30-44 	        27	27	27	29		48	49	49	46
45-59 	        31	30	30	30		52	51	51	48
60+		27	26	26	24		48	48	48	46
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.44	50.53	50.53	47.96
VOTE (mm)						61.67	61.78	61.78	58.64
										
INCOME										
0-$15K 	         9	9	9	8		68	66	66	63
$15-30 	        15	15	15	15		59	59	59	57
$30-50 	        22	22	22	22		53	52	52	50
$50-75 	        22	23	23	23		46	45	45	43
$75-100 	14	13	13	14		49	49	49	45
$100-150 	11	11	11	11		44	45	45	42
$150-200 	4	4	4	4		45	47	47	42
$200+ 	        3	3	3	3		40	41	41	35
PCT		100	100	100	100		51.45	51.01	51.01	48.13
VOTE (mm)						62.90	62.36	62.36	58.84

RELIGION										
Protestant	53	53	53	53		43	43	43	40
Catholic 	27	27	27	27		50	50	50	47
Jewish	        3	3	3	3		77	77	77	74
Other 	        7	7	7	7		76	75	75	74
None 		10	10	10	10		69	70	70	67
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.82	50.85	50.85	47.99
VOTE (mm)						62.13	62.17	62.17	58.67
										
MILITARY										
InMilitary	18	18	18	18		43	43	43	41
NoMilitary	82	82	82	82		52	53	53	50
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.38	51.2	51.2	48.38
VOTE (mm)						61.59	62.60	62.60	59.15
				
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-06-05 10:19 AM
Response to Reply #7
10. Is the alignment better here?
Edited on Fri May-06-05 10:25 AM by TruthIsAll
		NATIONAL EXIT POLL TIMELINE SUMMARY STATISTICS
                  KERRY PERCENTAGES AND VOTES (in millions)
						
	    2-Nov	2-Nov		3-Nov		3-Nov
            4:00pm	7:33pm		12:22am	       1:25pm
Respondents  8349	11027		13047		13660

CATEGORY    Pct	Vote	Pct	Vote	Pct	Vote	Pct	Vote

GENDER    50.48	61.72	50.78	62.08	50.78	62.08   47.78   58.42
REGION    50.61	61.88	50.84	62.16	50.84	62.16   48.24   58.98
PARTYID   50.62	61.89	50.24	61.42	50.69	61.97	47.89	58.55
IDEOLOGY  50.30	61.50	50.07	61.22	49.85	60.95	47.25	57.77
VOTED2000 51.01	62.36	50.90	62.23	51.41	62.85	48.48	59.27

DECIDED   51.18	62.57	51.42	62.87	51.23	62.63   47.50	58.07
EDUCATION 50.32	61.52	50.34	61.55	50.21	61.39	47.82	58.46
RACE	  50.79	62.10	51.04	62.40	50.94	62.28	47.81	58.45
AGE	  50.44	61.67	50.53	61.78	50.53	61.78	47.96	58.64
INCOME    51.45	62.90	51.01	62.36	51.01   62.36   48.13 58.84

RELIGION  50.82	62.13	50.85	62.17	50.85	62.17	47.99	58.67
MILITARY  50.38	61.59	51.20	62.60	51.20	62.60	48.38	59.15

AVERAGE   50.70	61.99	50.77	62.07	50.80	62.10	47.94	58.61

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-06-05 06:36 PM
Response to Reply #10
17. This table is misaligned on my home screen.
But it looks fine on my work screen.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-05 11:38 PM
Response to Reply #1
30. At a 1% MoE, I estimate it was Kerry by 64-57mm (52.5-46.5-1%)
Edited on Sun May-15-05 11:39 PM by TruthIsAll
There is a 97.5% probability that Kerry got at least 51.5% (assuming a 1% MoE) and a minimum of 63 million votes.

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Birthmark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-06-05 07:10 AM
Response to Original message
2. Okay.
I'm no statistician, so please bear with me. Is the confidence level of exit polls 95%, as I'm led to believe it is in other polling?
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-06-05 07:11 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. The C.L. is 95% and the Margin of Error for a13047 sample is 0.86%
Edited on Fri May-06-05 07:12 AM by TruthIsAll
.
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Birthmark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-06-05 07:17 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. Thanks, TIA
Again, slowly for the mathematically challenged, please: That means that there is a 1 in 20 chance of the exit polls being outside the margin of error, correct?

(And I do appreciate your patience.)
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-06-05 08:24 AM
Response to Reply #4
6. Here are the probabilities - and an explanation.
Edited on Fri May-06-05 08:33 AM by TruthIsAll
Yes, there is a 1 in 20 chance that the exit poll results
would exceed the margin of error for a TWO-TAIL TEST (Bush or
Kerry), but only 1 in 40 for Bush (or Kerry) alone.

But Kerry's final 48.28% vote was far outside the MoE. He had
a 50.80% average at the 13047 timeline, a deviation of 2.52%
from the vote.

The probability of the 2.52% deviation is 1 out of 233
million.



NATIONAL EXIT POLL PROBABILITIES 
	KERRY POLL DEVIATION TO 48.28% VOTE						
							
	11/2/2004	11/2/2004	11/3/2004	11/3/2004
	3:59pm		7:33pm		12:22am		1:25pm
Respon	8349		11027		13047		13660
							
MoE	1.07%		0.93%		0.86%		0.84%
StDev	0.55%		0.48%		0.44%		0.43%
Kerry%	50.70%		50.77%		50.80%		47.94%

Prob	0.000487%	0.000008%	0.00000043%	94.05%
1 in	205,180		11,781,646	233,712,012	1

Prob = 1-NORMDIST(Kerry%,0.4828,StDev,TRUE)	
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Birthmark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-06-05 08:57 AM
Response to Reply #6
9. Thanks, again.
I'm sure I'm not the only one who understands this better now. :)
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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-06-05 08:21 AM
Response to Original message
5. If I understand this table correctly, the swindle occurs between...
12.22 am and 1:25 pm, and can be seen in the far left columns of the bottom row ("Average"), involving an impossible decline from 62.10 million votes for Kerry to 58.61 million votes for Kerry--a vote switch of 3.49 million votes.

The reason that this 3.49 million vote switch is impossible is the sample size (the number of exit poll respondents on which it is based) as it stood at 12.22 am, vs. the sample size at 1:25 pm. The sample stood at 13,047 people at 12:22 am. At 1:25 pm, only 613 more respondents were added (last column in the "Respondents" row at the top--the final number of 13,660 respondents). These 613 additional respondents cannot have changed the vote that much.

If you glance down the column headed "13,047" and the last column, headed "13,660," you can see the switch occur in all categories.

The switch is reflected in the percentage of the vote. At 12:22 am, Kerry was winning by 50.8 % of the vote (or 62.1 million votes), which inexplicably falls to 47.94% (58.61 million votes) at 1:25 pm.

It's also interesting just to glance along the bottom line ("Average"). Kerry was not just winning all along the way, his winning margin steadily increases all evening, from 50.7%, to 50.77%, to 50.80%, then suddenly at the end, plummets to 47.94%.

____

Correct me if I'm wrong, TIA. People need to understand this.

----

Questions:

Do you recall at what time on Nov. 3 Kerry conceded? (I'm wondering if he might have been influenced by this exit poll/official tally disinformation on everybody's TV screens.)

Presumably, the final number (last column, at 1:25 pm on Nov. 3) is the one that was "adjusted" to fit the official tally. Do we know for sure at what point they began to pollute the exit poll data with the official tally?

(For those who aren't aware of it, the TV networks CHANGED the exit polls to fit the official tally, without disclosing this to viewers--thus depriving the American people of strong evidence of election fraud. Exit polls are used worldwide to verify elections and to check for fraud. In other countries, the two numbers are kept separate--exit polls vs. official tally--for comparison purposes. The people in the Ukraine, for instance, had unpolluted exit poll data to compare with this official data, and could plainly see that something was very wrong. Not here. In my opinion, this fiddling of the exit poll data in the Kerry-Bush election was the worst journalistic crime ever committed by the U.S. news monopolies, bar none. It prevented a general outcry and a general demand for official investigation)

What do you make of the big time gap between 12:22am and 1:25pm? The first three reports are only 3.5 and 5 hours apart, respectively. Then there is a 12 hour gap--then we get the impossible switch to Bush. Why did it take them so long to come up with this absurd conclusion (--since they were pulling it out of their hat anyway)? (Wasn't there some sort of report of a "breakdown" of a computer or something?)
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-06-05 08:39 AM
Response to Reply #5
8. My best answers.
Edited on Fri May-06-05 08:56 AM by TruthIsAll
Kerry conceded around 11am.


The FL and OH exit polls were changed from Kerry winning to Bush on CNN around 1am.

Time Gap:
I believe that the big time gap was required to adjust all the national exit poll weights/percentages to agree with the vote count.

Computer Breakdown?
That's the BS they use in every election. They did it in 2000 with Gore; they did it in 2002.
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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-06-05 10:57 AM
Response to Reply #8
11. Some further questions and thoughts...
"The FL and OH exit polls were changed from Kerry winning to Bush on CNN around 1am." --which day? I presume you mean Nov. 3 (very early in the morning, 5 hours after the polls closed on Nov. 2)--which would mean they could well have influenced Kerry if he didn't know what the real exit poll data was saying.

Anybody know the insider situation in the K/E campaign (or what's typical in a presidential campaign) about their state of knowledge of the exit polls, and what the TV networks were doing to the exit polls in this case, and/or independent sources of info they may have had.

You know, it's funny--I know that most Americans were deprived of this strong evidence of fraud (the real exit poll data). I myself was fooled for many hours. But I've never before considered whether or not Kerry and his consultants were also fooled (weren't aware of the real exit poll results)--then, once they conceded, were trapped in their concession, because, a) the real result was withheld for a long time, and b) by the time it became known, the damage had been done, as to public opinion. Kerry would have been well within his rights to demand an investigation at any point from 11/2/04 to 1/6/05--given the real exit poll result (and of course the massive and quite visible vote suppression in Ohio on top of it)-- but realistically, people generally believed the TV networks that Bush had won and hadn't a clue that there was strong evidence to the contrary--and he was facing a Bushcon Congress with that pervasive illusion having been created.

Anyway, I consider what the news monopolies did on 11/2,3--withholding the real exit poll result from the American people, and fiddling the numbers--their greatest journalistic crime, but it hadn't occurred to me that Kerry may have ALSO been a victim of this crime. (He was a victim, surely, in their creation of the illusion of an incontestable Bush win--which stifled general protest--but I mean, literally--that he may not have been aware, when he conceded, that the exit polls contradicted the official tally.)

I'm trying to think back--what was the date, AFTER the first screen shots of the real exit poll numbers were obtained and analyzed and the info put on line (pretty fast, as I recall), that more data became available, confirming a Kerry win of the exit polls? (I caught up with it all about a week after the election and so it's always been a big jumble to me what exit poll data got revealed when.) But I guess it doesn't matter. Kerry's opportunity to change public perception quickly faded with every hour after the concession, and he had lying news networks to contend with (not to mention an utter Bush blockade in Congress).

-----

Yeah, I figured the "computer breakdown" was B.S. (a cover story). I was just wondering if it tells us anything beyond the obvious--that they needed the time to fiddle the numbers. (Cover stories are sometimes revealing in and of themselves.)

-----

Anyone who groks this story--what the TV networks did to us--and it's quite simple, really; they friggin LIED to us, gave us DISINFORMATION, put FALSIFIED numbers on our TV screens to HIDE major evidence of election fraud--and who isn't infuriated right now both at their government and at the news monopolies doesn't have much heart and soul and good red blood running through their veins. And I don't care if you're a skeptic about election fraud, a Bush voter or whatever. These billionaire-run news monopolies, who are all profiting from the deaths in Iraq, gave us false, doctored election data that we should have been privy to, that we had a right to know, and that every other democracy in the world considers essential to the integrity of their elections!

What we might have done with that information, collectively, as a people, is OUR business--the business of this Republic that we supposedly own--not the business of international news conglomerates and their fatcat CEOs and news directors.

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-06-05 11:19 AM
Response to Reply #11
12. Do you really think Kerry and hist staff were unaware of the exit polls?
At 4pm, at 7:33 and at midnight, after 13047 respondents?

No, I don't think so.
Edwards wanted to contest.

There was no excuse for Kerry's concession.
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Blue Shark Donating Member (225 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-12-05 04:18 PM
Response to Reply #12
36. Fuckin' A..right! N/T
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Carolab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-05 04:55 PM
Response to Reply #8
21. And they did it in 2004 too.
Around 11 p.m., if memory serves, and it was supposedly "out" for about two hours.
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passy Donating Member (780 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-06-05 11:44 AM
Response to Original message
13. Sorry if this has been asked before.
Edited on Fri May-06-05 11:46 AM by passy
Not all the 13047 people interviewed by the time of the 12.22am can have been included in the 13660 exit poll of 1.15pm.

Is it normal to take away some people that you included earlier and replace then with others is this the reweigh thing we are talking about.

It's just that sometimes it sounds like 613 people were added to the group of 13047 and the poll was re-weighted that way.


In the 13660 group almost 200 men and women who voted for Kerry were removed and replaced with men and women voting for *.

Also why is the increase in respondents between the last two polls so small compared with increases of almost 3000 between the three previous ones.

Did EM actually have 16500 respondents and choose to use 13660 for their fixed final poll?


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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-06-05 12:14 PM
Response to Reply #13
14. Good questions. Sorry, I don't have the answers. But why do you say...
Edited on Fri May-06-05 12:15 PM by TruthIsAll

"Not all the 13047 people interviewed by the time of the 12.22am can have been included in the 13660 exit poll of 1.15pm".

Why not?
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passy Donating Member (780 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-06-05 02:14 PM
Response to Reply #14
15. Well because 43 women and 56 men already said they voted for Kerry and ..
Edited on Fri May-06-05 02:15 PM by passy
were then removed.
In the 13047 poll around 3804 women had voted for Kerry. (13047x54%x54%)
In the 13660 poll around 3761 women had voted for Kerry. (13660x54%x51%)
That means that 43 women who had voted for Kerry were removed from the final poll.
In the 13047 poll around 2820 men had voted for Kerry. (13047x46%x47%)
In the 13660 poll around 2764 men had voted for Kerry. (13660x46%x44%)
That means that 56 women who had voted for Kerry were removed from the final poll.
Altogether 99 persons voting for Kerry were removed from the final group used for the poll of 13660.
That also means that an extra 712 * voters were added to the final poll numbers.
It doesn't make sense if all of the people in the group of 13047 are also supposed to be in the group of 13660.
Maybe I'm just getting confused with the methods used for re-weighting.
Do you interview 20000 people and then use only some of them to weigh the poll. And then if you have to re-weigh it you use other people that you didn't use before. Like you include more Southern voters, 30-44 year old voters, more conservatives and more returning * voters?
Do you remove the ones you already have included though, I think that that is my question?
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-06-05 02:50 PM
Response to Reply #15
16. You are right. It is confusing, makes no sense. It's NEVER been explained.
Because our media is moribund.

The bottom line is this:

The TRUE exit poll ended at 13047. Kerry won easily.

The re-weightings AND percentage changes AND the additional 660 repondents made no sense.

THE ONLY ANSWER IS: IT HAD TO BE MATCHED TO A CORRUPTED VOTE.

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-06-05 06:38 PM
Response to Original message
18. Table in original post looks fine at home..but is misaligned at work.
Edited on Fri May-06-05 06:44 PM by TruthIsAll
The orginal or the modified version should align depending on your monitor.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-05 10:44 AM
Response to Original message
19. Are ALL the demographics rBr? Kerry wins them ALL.
Are there 6% rBr's spread EQUALLY throughout all the categories?

No fraud?

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Carolab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-05 05:00 PM
Response to Reply #19
22. Again, I ask you this question:
How does this rBr data jibe with Rove's assessment on election night that the polls were underrepresenting males, and therefore didn't match "his" data?
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-05 05:09 PM
Response to Reply #22
23. Well, just look at the 8349 timeline. It was 58/42 female and Kerry
was leading with 53% of the female vote
At 11027, it was 54/46 and Kerry had 54% of the female vote
At 13047, it was 54/46 and Kerry had 54% of the female vote.

So much for the Rove theory.
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Carolab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-05 05:26 PM
Response to Reply #23
24. That's the female vote.
It's the male vote he was focused on. If he was right and the male vote was underrepresented/underreported, how does that square with the exit poll reporting and how does that square with the rBr liepothesis?
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-05 10:33 PM
Response to Reply #24
25. I think you missed my point. Just look at the numbers...
Edited on Sun May-15-05 11:04 PM by TruthIsAll
		4:00pm	7:33pm	12:22am	1:25pm		4:00pm	7:33pm	12:22am	1:25pm
		8349	11027	13047	13660		8349	11027	13047	13660
										
			Category Weighting			Kerry Percentage		
GENDER										
Male 		42	46	46	46		47	47	47	44
Female 		58	54	54	54		53	54	54	51
PCT		100	100	100	100		50.48	50.78	50.78	47.78
VOTE (mm)						61.72	62.08	62.08	58.42


The male weight increased from 42% at the 8349 timeline to 46%
at the 11027 timeline - and Kerry' share of the male vote
stayed constant at 47% through the first 13047 respondents.

So how did he end up with just 44% of the 13660?

There are just two ways to change the results:
1) Adjust the weights. They didn't for the Gender mix. The mix
was a constant 54/46 from the 11027 timeline. 

2) Adjust the percentages. Kerry's percentages were trimmed by
3% for both the male and female vote AFTER THE 13047 POLL WAS
COMPLETED. That reversed the 51-48% Kerry exit poll win to
51-48% for Bush. This was necessary in order to MATCH the vote
count. 

"It's the male vote he was focused on. If he was right
and the male vote was underrepresented/underreported, how does
that square with the exit poll reporting and how does that
square with the rBr liepothesis"? 

Well, than how do you explain the fact that the 3% decline in
Kerry's female vote exactly equaled his decline in the male
vote - a big drop for just 613 respondents, right?

And how do you explain the fact that the final 13660 which
matched the vote, had the same 54/46 mix as the 13047 timeline
which Kerry won? If the males were undereported, the 46%
should have been higher, right?
 
That's all there is. Draw your own conclusions.

Oh, by the way, final weights were changed in other
categories, such as "How Voted in 2000" and Party
ID. Check them out. In the how voted category, they were
changed from an impossible Bush 2000 voter weight of 41% to an
utterly ridiculous 43%. The maximum it could have been was
40%, since at least 3% of Bush 2000 voters died. Vote
percentages had to be changed, since the 2% change in weights
alone could not give Bush the 3% increase he needed.
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Carolab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-05 10:58 PM
Response to Reply #25
26. I saw that. But my question really had more to do with the rBr.
If the rBr "holds" water it would also have to jibe with Rove's "underrepresentation theory" in the sense that the rBr's were all male; i.e., the exit polls were skewed because of rBr; according to Rove, they'd have to be male.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-05 11:21 PM
Response to Reply #26
27. Self delete
Edited on Sun May-15-05 11:27 PM by TruthIsAll
.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-05 11:26 PM
Response to Reply #26
28. Are you referring to the 58/42% mix at 4pm?
Edited on Sun May-15-05 11:28 PM by TruthIsAll
If Rove was referring to that, well...it WAS changed at 7:33pm to 54/46% (at the 11027 respondent time line).
And it stayed constant at 46% from there on.
So where's the beef?

So much for the male rBr.
So much for rBr, period.
So much for faith-based rationale.

There is no way to explain the 56-50% differential response as being due to rBr bias. That's a canard.

The simple, plausible explanation is that Kerry won by that 56/50
ratio. That equates to 52.83% of the two-party vote.
Or 52-47-1% of the full vote.

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Carolab Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-05 11:32 PM
Response to Reply #28
29. Thanks.
I appreciate it.
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AnotherMother4Peace Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-15-05 11:11 AM
Response to Original message
20. TIA - Thanks for you perseverance & work
I refer to it often, but I've never said thanks. I am just one of many that appreciate your work, but have never thanked you. So THANK YOU
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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-10-05 01:23 AM
Response to Reply #20
31. Kick.nt
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AAARRRGGGHHH Donating Member (265 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-15-05 12:25 AM
Response to Reply #20
40. I am extremely new to the boards, but
Thank you so much, TIA. You are a hero.
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jun-10-05 02:04 AM
Response to Original message
32. self delete oops Well, KICK
Edited on Fri Jun-10-05 02:06 AM by autorank
:kick:
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-12-05 03:16 AM
Response to Original message
33. I'm Back KICK it!
:kick: :hi: there!
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tommcintyre Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-12-05 03:07 PM
Response to Original message
34. kick
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intensitymedia Donating Member (101 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-12-05 03:11 PM
Response to Original message
35. It's time to gain international validation for your analysis
If the MSM in this country is going to continue to prove that it's nothing more than a bought-off, sycophantic, pro-war, pro-business, mendacious propaganda arm of the fascist Bush coup d'etat, maybe the answer is to gain a groundswell abroad for your analysis, particularly in countries whose democracies have something to teach us.

Just as the Iran-Contra conspiracy was blown sky-high by an obscure news article in Lebanon, perhaps it would change the tenor of our political dialogue here to have major articles published in France, Spain, the U.K., and everywhere in the middle east, discussing the superb and overwhelmingly convincing analysis you've provided, TIA.

To accomplish this, perhaps some readers of these historically significant threads you've provided can forward same to contacts overseas, particularly to those who have a voice in the media.

Of course time will also do its job - the truth will "out" as Ben Bradley liked to say in dismissing any possibility of a JFK conspiracy - because as we've all been learning, Truth Is All.

Thanks -

Peace, but never give up the struggle-

che de vera
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LightningFlash Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-14-05 03:38 AM
Response to Reply #35
38. One problem with all of this...
Other countries are inclined to believe there is "shy tories", or reluctant bush responders everywhere. While there is a certain amount of polling bias, the hypthesis it happened everywhere and after 12 midnight is certifiably dead.

The international community must get this, and realize that the machines were manipulated for a fact as shown here http://www.voteprotect.org
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-13-05 07:45 PM
Response to Original message
37. Only the blind cannot see it.
.
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kster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-14-05 08:48 PM
Response to Original message
39. Rack em.....................nt
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